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Technical Analysis for StocksStocks appear to be establishing value in the lower 4300 handle. We have support from below at 4272, and are facing resistance above at 4440. The Kovach OBV has completely flattened out, confirming the indecision. Currently, it appears we are making a run for lower levels, so watch 4272. If we are able to break this, then 4228 is the next target. Beyond that, we have 4214, then a vacuum zone to 4188. If we catch a bid and are able to break 4440, then 4487 will be the level to break before 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
NFLX current scenario and trading opportunitiesToday, we will take a look at NFLX after a massive gap. Where is the price right now? Is making contact with a weekly trendline that started in 2017; therefore, we have to consider this level a relevant zone to think in potential bouncing or breakout movements. Bullish Scenario: The price is able to bounce on the weekly ascending trendline and makes a breakout of the descending trendline of the current bearish movement. IF that happens, waiting for a correction after the breakout using previous scenarios as models to understand the size and duration of it is always a good idea. So, I have defined what I think the correction should look like. A new local high would be a confirmation of the bullish movement towards the next resistance zone. Bearish Scenario: The price is not able to bounce on the weekly trendline, and we observe a breakout. Waiting for a correction after the breakout of a relevant level using previous scenarios as models to understand the size and duration of it is always a good idea. So I have defined what I think the correction on the bearish movement should look like. A new local low after that would be a confirmation of the bearish movement towards the next support zone. At the moment, my stand on NFLX is waiting and observing possible resolutions before taking action. Thanks for reading.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
Stocks Tumble after FOMCStocks have broken down from 4440, and sought out lower levels in the 4300 handle after dipping as low as 4272. This followed the FOMC meeting, where the Fed delayed an interest rate hike but noted that a hike every subsequent meeting for 2022 was not out of the question. This and balance sheet reduction is their plan to combat the highest inflation in a generation. The markets jostled to digest this information with choppy trading before stocks dumped to lower levels. The Kovach OBV is tapering upwards in an apparent divergence with price, which fell through two handles before finding support in the 4300's, reaching 4353, where we are seeing resistance from a red triangle on the KRI. If we fall further, then we should have support at 4245 or 4223. If we rally, then we will see resistance at 4440. It is likely that stocks will try to establish value somewhere between these two bounds before making their next move.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
TSLA current situation + possible directions.Today, we will look at TSLA and the current situation we are in. Technical context: - The price is currently on an ABC flag pattern (yellow lines) - The price is close to an ascending trendline coming from March 2020 - The price has reached a major support level (900.00) What can we expect from here? Bullish perspective: Inside the flag pattern, we can see a white descending trendline, defining the current bearish movement. IF the price breaks it, and we observe a retest (throwback) of it, a new high after that may be a confirmation of a bullish movement towards the higher trendline of the corrective pattern. Bearish perspective: If the price breaks the ascending trendline and makes a clear retest (pullback) of the ascending trendline, a new low after that may be a confirmation of a bearish movement towards the next support zone at 560.00 The main purpose of this post is to define situations, levels, and structures that may be useful for different types of traders. Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
Stocks Hinge on Three Key Issues from the FOMC Statement TodayStocks continue to edge up trepidaciously, testing 4421 or so, the levels from which we dumped on Monday. Two red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance here at every attempt. We won't see much action in stocks until after the FOMC minutes in the afternoon. A rate hike is largely priced into the markets, so when this happens, we should be able to break out higher. However, if their rhetoric is particularly hawkish, we could make another run for lows. Watch what they have to say about three key issues: inflation, Omicron, and Russia tensions, all issues which are currently spooking investors. If we are able to break out, then 4487, and 4580 are the next targets. If we break lower, we could test 4245 again. The Kovach OBV is edging up showing a slight bull divergence, but the FOMC event is what the markets are hanging on before their next move.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
BTC looking strong for the future...Bitcoin is seeing higher highs and higher lows indicating that we are not yet in a bear market. i also believe that bitcoin is about to break out hopefully to a new high due to the extremely low prices which many whales are buying at to hold for a long time leading to a reduced supply therefore causing a higher price. however, bitcoin may not break out as in march / April interest rates are very likely to increase causing the stock market to fall which bitcoin and the crypto space has started closely following causing them to fall as well. this is because its more profitable and safer to have your money in the bank with no risk gaining higher interest rates than facing risk in stocks / crypto. due to this bitcoin may not break out till April / may time when it should reach new highs and hopefully $100,000.
BLong
by Nickfpv
Have Stocks Bottomed??Stocks dumped yesterday as we anticipated in the reports. Yesterday morning, we saw a small bounce from the S&P 500 apparently attempting to test the mid 4400 handle, but this was attempt was swiftly batted down in a persistent selloff that lasted most of the day. At the end of the day, we saw a sharp buyback, which could have been a gamma squeeze as puts were piling into the order books. The sharp short squeeze erased all of our losses with some stock indexes ending the day in the green. Currently, we edged lower, as the markets equilibrate from the selloff and subsequent rally. We appear to be getting support from 4327 and resistance from 4389 at the moment. If we continue to press higher, we could see an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 4409 or 4440. A breakout from there could test 4487, or 4580. If things take a turn for the worse, then 4245 should provide support, but if not 4188 and 4178 are the first levels in the 4100 handle.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
NFLX and BTFDLooks like this is another stock that I will be adding to my portfolio soon. In the coming 2-5 Months. This has been a more volatile stock as it's sold off 45%+ in the past and it's currently reaching/reached that point. Of course with inflation and rate hikes affecting high PE companies this one will probably be no exception and will probably be seeing more pain in the coming months. Also raising prices is not going to bode well for them in the coming quarters, affecting churn rates/new customers. 375 and 343 a next levels to watch for. looking to start adding around 370ish. 290 would be hell.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Thisguy22
Stocks Dip Sharply, A Bearish Start to the WeekStocks have fallen, taking a turn for the worse at the opening of the Asia-Pacific session. We have given up the 4400 handle entirely to seek support in the 4300's. We made a valiant attempt to pivot to the mid 4400's, where 4431 proved to be a barrier. A rejection took us back to support at 4380. A green triangle on the KRI is starting to suggest some support here, but the risk sentiment is looking pretty bearish. We should have support from 4364, 4350, and 4327 in the event of another dump. If we are able to catch a relief rally, 4431 should provide resistance, with 4487 a likely ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
What now?Bitcoin failed yet again to break and close above the 3/1 Gann , check out the TA below . It completed a W formation, broke out of the 3/1 and then got nuked. Daily did not close above. We had a massive fake out here , since November 15th we have failed time and time to break this 3/1 gann. So my whole thesis on May 2022 being the top is highly unlikely at this point with just 100 days till May I don't see it happening. So what does May bring then , the bottom most likely where is the bottom who knows , 1.618 Fib is the orange line of support you see so hopefully that holds till May 2022. We are close to the bottom I think if we just take a look at the USDT Market dominance we can see its hit resistance , this is a chart I follow to find tops and bottoms in Bitcoin it works like a charm take a look We have this very clear ascending channel and everytime we hit the tops and bottoms of the channel it's a major bottom or top for Bitcoin, last two times it was July 2021 and September 2020 both bottoms , at the moment USDT dominance has never passed this level but I expect it getting to the top of the ascending channel sometime late April 2022 bringing Bitcoin down to somewhere around 28--30k. Beware of the False relief rally that is coming, a rejection of price anywhere in the orange box will be setting up for Bitcoin to go lower. The weekly RSi is at historic lows for Bitcoin and we are still at 35k which is good , take a look below. As always if you have been here more than one year you know the drill stack more crypto everything is on discount. I have picked up more ETH and AAVE today ,and saw a very interesting video on AAVE and how it's undervalued and also version 3 is just around the corner . www.youtube.com There is a small long scalp I will throw in here since it's not very often you get this setup. Market cipher printed four yellow "x"s meaning price has been exhausted and since everything is extremely oversold a bounce should be coming in soon . Stop Loss =34300 Take Profit =37600 I think we can now say the four year cycle pattern is out the window. Maybe we have much shorter cycles now much faster , maybe we don't blow off tops anymore , who knows Bitcoin always seems to do the unexpected and no matter how much you go over previous cycles it still remains one step ahead.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sporia
1
AMZN inside the range.... again.Today we will take a look at AMZN. Since September 2020, the price has been moving inside a 20% range approx. That means a little bit more than 500 days there. Why is this interesting for me? Because from long periods of consolidations is where we tend to observe the beginning of new trends. I'm not saying that trend is starting right now but let's take a look at this: Here we can see AMZN on the logarithmic chart so we can have a good perspective of all the movements in terms of percentage movement. I have defined ALL the corrections going from 280 days to 500 plus. And as you can see, this situation has already happened in the past, so my main hypothesis would be: "This is AMZN, not PTON, they have a solid moat, and I expect this company to make new bullish movements in the future. Someone could argue that MSFT, a solid company in 2001, spent almost 16 years on a drawdown, and that would be extremely valid. However, that's why I'm looking for a setup here and not to invest. So what's the setup I'm thinking about? I think it is highly possible that the price reaches the major support of the correction one more time. From there, I would like to see the price action to confirm a possible reversal movement or a bearish breakout. However, if I observe reversal signals and then my filters are fulfilled, I think it may be an interesting level to develop setups and try to be part of the next bullish movement from an early stage that provides a great risk to reward ratio (higher than 5) At the moment, I will keep waiting for the price to reach that level before thinking of any new setups here. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comments.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by ThinkingAntsOk
5
Stocks DUMP!! What to Expect...Stocks plummeted near close yesterday, cratering more than 100 points. It appears that the stock market is not digesting the Russia/Ukraine issue, with NATO talks 'going nowhere'. We made an attempt to break into the vacuum zone above 4580, but a red triangle on the KRI marked sharp resistance early into this attempt. Subsequently we sold off, smashing through the 4500 handle, and testing levels in the 4400 handle. We appear to be seeing support from 4462, and made a small attempt at a pivot to 4487, where we are currently seeing notable resistance. At the time of this writing, we are currently seeing what appears to be a rejection, seeking support at 4462. The already abysmal Kovach OBV has taken a sharp turn downward, but does appear to be showing signs of leveling off. We have a cluster of levels in the lower 4400's to provide support including 4440, 4431, 4421, and 4408. All of these could potentially be targets if the selloff persists. If not, we could make a run for the relative low at 4521 or attempt 4580 again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Continue to Dive 📉😱Stocks have continued to press lower, breaking several key levels. After breaking 4580, we made a brief attempt at a pivot back through the vacuum zone to test 4632, but that fizzled quickly. Subsequently, we plummeted back to lower levels, breaking 4545 and finally finding support at 4521. A green triangle on the KRI is confirming support at this level. The Kovach OBV is still abysmally bearish, arching straight down, with not the slightest sign of leveling off to suggest a bottom forming. However, at this point we are quite oversold and due for a relief rally, even if its just technically driven. If so, watch for a breakout from 4580 into the vacuum zone again, with 4632 being a potential target. If the rout continues, then 4504 and 4487 are the next targets to the downside.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Take a Noisedive!! Is a bottom in sight??Stocks took a sharp turn for the worse. As predicted, the break down from the inverse head and shoulders pattern we identified two days ago, was a bearish sign indeed. We have traversed the vacuum zone below 4632 and made a run for 4580. We anticipated this level to hold, but we saw only a brief attempt at a pivot off this level which was quickly sold back down, breaking 4580 and testing the next two levels down. We have several levels in the upper 4500 handle to provide a cushion, and it appears like 4545 may be doing the job for now. If not, the next levels are 4521 and 4504, the latter being the last support level in the 4500 handle. We have seen a small pivot from 4545, and are currently testing 4580 again, peaking up just above this level at the time of this writing. We have encroached upon the vacuum zone between 4580 and 4632 again, but the Kovach OBV has been solidly bearish for most of 2022. If we do see a rally, 4632 is bound to provide resistance.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Stocks Break Down from Inverse Head and Shoulders!!📉😱Stocks have broken down hard from our inverse head and shoulders pattern. This should be considered a very bearish sign. We have broken into the vacuum zone between 4632 and 4580, finding support at roughly the midpoint around 4600, a psychological level, which may also become our next addition to technical levels on this chart. The Kovach OBV is quite bearish, but if we see a relief rally, we can expect the S&P 500 to test 4632. We have several levels above this in the 4600 handle, with 4668, the neckline of our inverse H&S a likely ceiling for now. The neckline of a failed H&S pattern always proves to be a significant barrier. From below, 4580 and 4564 should provide support.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Ascending channel/Big Day MondayJust a short term TA on the current price action . Bitcoin has formed an ascending wedge and got rejected once again of the 4/1 Gann . We can't seem to break this level finding it has major resistance , Monday is a big day for Bitcoin we decide if we carry on up and break the 4/1 Gann or resume the downtrend. As always set some time fibs , keep in mind this is the hourly chart next fib count would be 2hours from this post but the next would be Monday Mid day well at least for me UTC+1.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
5
LTC/BTC reaching end of its 4 year pattern!Litecoin dominance has been a downtrend for four years by the end of February 2022 the pattern will break. As you can see even though its not the perfect Gann placement we still get very good reactions off the 4/1. Also not sure how the MFI is exactly working on the dominance chart but it is so we can clearly see that it does show divergences pretty accurately. We created bullish divergence a while ago but still remained on a downtrend maybe its lagging this time round but normally its pretty accurate. Out of all the coins I follow and chart this one for me is the most interesting , whats going to happen after this pattern breaks? This is not a small developing pattern its been years in the making a break to the upside could send ltc to new places. I have a gut feeling something big is coming and its the "dino" coin coming back from the grave! key: "dino" = Dinosaur Coin Dinosaur =Dinosaurs are prehistoric reptiles that have lived on Earth from about 228 million years ago.
Long
by Sporia
12
The most significant decline in ARKK's historyToday we will take a look at ARKK. The main element we have to comment on is the current decline, the biggest in the ETF history. The current drawdown is at 51%, and we have three other situations in the past where we observed declines of 30% or more. Here are some key ideas you can use to increase the odds of engaging on a successful setup on the ETF, assuming that eventually, we will have a new bull run. * AVOID trading below the descending trendline . A trendline is telling you something "above assume X, below assume Y" in this case, the price is clearly below the descending trendline. Therefore we should avoid any type of swing setup mainly because there are no signs that the current bearish trend has finished. If we have to take a really bad scenario for the ETF based on the current technical elements, we can observe a -60% decline with a major bearish target on the highs of 2020. * Study the 3 previous scenarios . IF you want to catch the next massive movement of the ETF, then you need to study how the transition happened in the past, where the price was on a severe drawdown, and then we saw new impulses. So, if you want to understand what's going on, start studying the previous 3 scenarios and look for patterns. My current view is that assuming the trending characteristic this asset has, I'm more than interested in developing swing setups here. However, at the moment, I'm WAITING; my two filters are: 1) The price has reached the major bearish target at 62-61 (start thinking in bullish opportunities) 2) The price is getting close to breaking the descending trendline (start thinking in bullish opportunities) Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comments.
AMEX:ARKK
by ThinkingAntsOk
51
The W pattern To 100k (Bitcoin)So I have been going over Log Fibs quite a bit the last few weeks and found amazing patterns regarding the Blue Fib log you see in front of you, take a look at the TA below . What I noticed was that Bitcoin tends to do a double bounce off the Blue Fib log before moving higher, right now with just had that double bounce. Now looking further into each bounce we can see that sometimes Bitcoin created W formations with these bounces. Here are a few examples 2019 W formation 2017 Another W formation 2010 Not as clear be somewhat W formation This is what we could be creating right now and a massive W formation that has taken one year to form. We did the same thing previous years in a much smaller time frame because the market cap was much lower , now that we need to go to 175k the W pattern needs to be much larger to swing that momentum , let's see if it plays out. I also have a different scenario one that is more bearish take which would take Bitcoin down to 35k , I really doubt we go lower if this happens , some of the calls down to 20k is just so ridiculous not saying it can't happen but we talking about a black swan event to get down there. Just take a look , Bitcoin has only ever touched the blue fib log under the 50% line once in 11 years and it was the Covid crash , people think Bitcoins going down to 20k with a simple correction are not seeing things clearly , just look at where a 20k Bitcoin lands same place as the Covid crash , so yeah anything is possible but to get there we need a black swan event at this point. Fib Time Zones 0.5 - 20th Feb 2022 0.618 - 2nd March 2022 1.618 - 23rd May 2022
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
1
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Stocks??Stocks have dipped, testing lower levels in the 4600 handle. We found good support at 4632, but are witnessing some volatility here. We may be seeing the formation of an inverse head and shoulders with a neckline at 4668, one of our technical levels which appears to be providing resistance. Several red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance as we have tested this level three times. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, but if momentum comes through and we are able to break out, then 4693 and 4729 are the next targets. The latter level has provided prohibitive resistance the last time stocks attempted higher levels last week. We still have several factors weighing on the market including Covid recovery worries, staffing shortages, inflation and interest rates. If our inverse H&S breaks down, its a bearish sign indeed, but watch for support at 4580.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy