Correction inbound?In 2008 over leverage of 440 billion, to todays (2021) 900 billion.
2008 inflation rate 2021
May 4.2 April 4.2
June 5.0 May 5.0
July 5.6 June 5.4
August 5.4 July 5.4
Sure just numbers right? Lets look at the months prior to the big change
2008 2021
January 4.3 January 1.4
Feb 4.0 Feb 1.7
March 4.0 March 2.6
April 3.9 April 4.2
The percentages in 2008 were slow yet very high. In 2021 we went from one extreme to another.
Banks selling assets, at an unfathomable amount and rate
** reverse repurchases exceeding 1 trillion a day for the second time this year and will probably do so again today
SEC, DTCC, and SSTC passing rules and regulations at an unprecedented rate
Massive amounts of covid-19 relief money infused by new investors Crooked brokerages working with one of the largest market makers who now know your every move.
Naked shorts, and meme stocks. Failure to delivers
US 10yr rate approaching 1.0 return
2 WEEK RANGE
0.608 - 1.778
PRICE 99 1/32
Please add if I am missing any other signs that point to a 20 to 30% market CORRECTION ( Not a bear Market).
All of these things and if you look at the SPY Chart, even when nobody was working and freeways were dead and police officers were stopping no one from speeding, the SPY chart looks like a ramp Evil K'nevil wouldn't jump from.
Let's also remember we have 10.8 million US households that are going to be affected by the rent moratorium expiring on 08-31-21 with a congress that is adjourned for the next 7 weeks ( I want seven weeks off) . That's 1 out of every 6 renters ready to be evicted from their dwellings.
Also we have debt ceiling about to be breached.
Stonks
Stocks Continue to Range 🥱We are still waiting for our breakout in stocks. All week, the S&P has been holding an extremely narrow range, and drifting up past our level at 4432. We are seeing a slow but steady drift, and volatility has consolidated immensely. We are due for a breakout either way. Our profit target from above is 4462. From below, 4408, 4389, and 4380 should provide support. The Kovach OBV was once quite strong, even with the consolidation, but appears to be tapering which makes us question if we may see a correction first before hitting our next profit target.
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Bull Flag in Stocks!!Stocks are forming a bull flag at 4432, which appears to be a point of control for the S&P. There is a bull divergence in the Kovach OBV suggesting we may finally see the breakout we have been anticipating for the past few trading days. Stocks are holding a very narrow range, which suggests a breakout is near either way. If we are wrong and stocks break down, then we will have support from 4380, 4364, and 4350.
CRWD corrective pattern above ATH. Hello guys! Welcome to another idea on Stocks. Today we will be analyzing CRWD in a very straightforward way.
Let's start with the important elements of the chart:
a) The price is inside an ascending channel. That's our macrostructure
b) After a top on February 2021, the price could not go through that level again. Until Jun where we had a breakout.
c) As you can see now, the price is making a corrective formation above the previous ATH in the resistance zone.
d) The current pattern is a triangle, where "E," the 5th wave, is almost finished.
e) Ok, where is the activation level for this view? We have defined a green horizontal line where if the price reaches it, we will consider that the stock has the potential to go towards the higher zone of the ascending channel (that's our macrostructure)
f) Let's assume the vision is activated; our cancelation level is below the triangle pattern. There we will consider that our view was wrong, and we need to recalculate. However, if the price never reaches the activation level and keeps falling below the triangle pattern, we will consider that our view didn't proceed as expected, and we change our perspective.
g) How sure you are about this analysis? Like flipping a coin, remember technical analysis is a statistical discipline where you NEVER EVER will know with certainty what will happen. However, you can work on your average win 50% and develop 1 : 2 setups around there.
Thanks for reading, guys!
Trading Plan for NFLX. Breakout, correction, and setup.Hi Guys, today we will share our view on NFLX. We think its an interesting chart due to the massive correction we can observe since July 2020
What is our plan? First of all, we want to observe a breakout. We are not interested in trading inside the current range. The level we will use to confirm the breakout is 600. IF the price reaches that level, we will consider that its time to look for the retest
What is a retest? Also known as Throwback in bullish impulses or Pullback on bearish impulses. It's the correction that happens after the price breaks a relevant level or structure. The small red arrow above the structure is our expected Throwback.
Great, what can I do with that?
Our plan is to wait for a clear throwback (between 7 to 15 days). IF that happens, we will use that structure to execute pending orders above (horizontal green line), and we will define our stop loss below the throwback—final Target on the 2nd fibo extension. (we defined this by using the previous impulse).
Risk
We will be risking between 1 to 2% of our trading Capita. (NEVER RISKED MORE)
What happens if the price doesn't do that?
We don't trade...
What happens if the price executes your order and then goes straight to your stop loss?
We have a stop loss...
Thanks for reading!
Breakout for Stocks??Stocks keep encroaching on the upper bound of the range at 4431. We are observing a clear tendency toward higher levels but an inability to definitively break out from them. We do appear to be witnessing a bull wedge pattern, with a bull divergence in the Kovach OBV, suggesting we are mounting up pressure for a breakout to 4462. If we fail to breakout, we will likely see a breakdown to the lower bound of the range stocks were holding since July at 4380.
Bull Wedge Breakout for Stocks??Stocks are showing a clear affinity for the upper bound of the range, at 4431. We are seeing a bull wedge pattern with higher lows contributing to a consolidation of volatility. Additionally, the Kovach OBV is picking up, suggesting a bull divergence. We feel a breakout is imminent and the next target is 4462. If we are wrong, watch for support at the lower bound of the range at 4380.
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One more wave, and we are ready for the breakout. AAPLToday we will make a 4HS analysis on AAPL. The main structure we will be working with is the Daily Structure. That represents our current limits.
So, what can we see here?
The price is making an apparently "abcde" pattern above the previous ATH. At the moment, we observe "abcd." "e" is remaining, and it would be great to observe it so we can say with certainty, "The pattern is finished."
Let's assume that we have the finished pattern. What can we expect from here?
Using Fibo extensions, we can project two targets. Those would be the levels we will be interested in. As a general rule, we use the first fibo extension as a break-even level. And the 2nd one as a final target.
Hey, but you have the daily structure in the middle of all this!
Yes, that is absolutely true. You should be careful with that level; if you decide to trade, it would be smart to mitigate risk or be 100% risk-free. Remember that this is a statistical discipline; there is an X % of the price breaking the level and a Y % of the price bouncing there. NOBODY knows which of them will happen. However, that doesn't mean that we can not develop a setup in a situation where we have a good risk-reward ratio that is worth taking the uncertainty with perfect risk management (like 1 to 2%) of the trading capital.
Tell me about your activation and invalidation levels
Yes sir. The green horizontal line represents our activation level IF the pattern is completed (take that in mind). And below the "abcde" structure, we will define our invalidation level either to cancel the setup or to set the stop loss. Final Target 2nd level of the fibo extension.
With all this clear, we hope this can be useful. Remember: Always make your own math, and protect your money! Thanks.
Bull Wedge in Stocks!!Stocks remain range bound by 4431, but it looks like we are forming a bull wedge with the upper bound just south of this level. Levels from below have been holding for over a week now at 4380, and we are currently seeing higher lows, and consolidating volatility. Price action seems to be consolidating around 4408, which appears to be a POC. The Kovach OBV is flat for the moment. Ideally, we would have a bull divergence here to anticipate a breakout. If we are able to break out from 4431, then 4462 is our next target. If not 4380 should continue to provide support.
Breakout in Stocks??Stocks are continuing to range. They have held the range between 4380 and 4431 for over a week. As we mentioned yesterday, the S&P 500 found support at the lower bound and has tended back to the upper bound, sitting just a few ticks below the upper bound at 4431. We will see today if stocks can finally muster the strength to break this level and acheive new highs again, or if they will continue to range. If we are able to break the range today, then 4462 is the next target. If we break down we will have further support from 4364 and 4350.
Breakin Ranges on AMZN, can we expect a repetition?Today, we will speak about the current situation on AMZN
- The price has been trading inside a range from September 2020 until July 2021 where we observed a Breakout.
-Currently, we can see that the price re-entered the broken range. What can we expect from here?
KEY IDEAS:
-From a technical perspective, it's extremely common that after daily breakouts (structures with a duration higher than 100 days), we observe a throwback (or a retest). As you can see on the previous range, we saw the same sequence.
-It's commonly accepted that the target of broken ranges is at least the size of it on the broken direction (we can see some notes of this idea on Wykoff Theory). That is the minimum target that we should expect.
With all that clear, let's go to the interesting thing, what is our view on this?
IF the price breaks the descending trendline of the current throwback and reaches our green activation line, we will take that as a confirmation of the bullish movement towards the minimum target, of course. At those levels, you should be protecting your capital by moving your stop loss to the entry-level (that is what we do). From there, we want to let the price keep going up towards the final target at 4700
Let's speak about the stop loss and risk:
-IF the entry is executed, we always set our stop loss below the throwback, and we use a risk between 1% to 2%, never more.
-IF the entry is never executed and the price keeps falling, and we lose acceptable risk-reward ratios, we will cancel this idea.
-IF everything goes as expected, we think this movement can last 150 to 200 days
Thanks for reading!
Stocks Continue to RangeStocks are continuing to range in their sideways corrective pattern. The S&P has been holding the range between 4380 and 4431 for over a week now. We rejected the upper bound yesterday, as we anticipated, which would have made for a nice mean reversion trade. Indeed, the S&P retraced the entire range, finding support at the lower bound. It is currently testing 4408, so watch for momentum at open to determine if we can test 4431 again. If so, the next target is 4462. If not, we should find support again at 4380, 4364, or 4350.
Stocks Ready to Break Out??Stocks have gained strength and are currently hugging highs. We seem to be facing some resistance just under our level at 4431. We have been seeing a sideways corrective pattern for over a week, so perhaps it is time for stocks to make another move. Watch for support at 4408 and 4389 if we reject current levels. Our next target remains 4462 if we are able to break out. Watch for momentum at the open for confirmation.
"E" Wave is remaining, and the pattern is finished on TSLA.Why are corrective patterns relevant?
Because this way, we can define a clear idea between "a structure is ready to think about breakouts" or "the structure is not finished yet to think about a breakout." This concept was developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, the father of the Wave Principle. He defined that corrective movements (sideways situation) can take 4 different shapes, ZIG-ZAG / IRREGULARS / FLAT / TRIANGLES. The first 3 are composed of 3 Waves ABC, and Triangles are composed of 5 waves ABCDE.
Today we will not explain the specific characteristics of each of them, but we will get an idea of Triangles. Remember that there is this concept of "What theory tells us" (a perfect triangle) VS "What the market shows us" (5 waves, where you say, Ok... I think this is a triangle). So why would you wait for this kind of mystic shape? Because this is showing us that the accumulation or distribution process is getting tighter or compressed. We confirm that by observing 3 clear supply/demand bounces in the full pattern, which is a clear confirmation of the relevant levels where the change in equilibrium is happening.
ok, nice theory... I want the relevant levels for you.
Well, so as we explained before, we are waiting for AT LEAST an "ABCDE" Pattern, and we think we need to observe "E" for that. We expect to see a reversal movement in the 2 minor resistance levels we have drawn. The expected target for E is the lower trendline of the triangle or at least the price hitting 600. With that situation happening, we will be ready to set pending orders above "B" (above the 2 minor resistance levels) and a first target on the FIBO EXTENSION (If you are a position trader, then we would go for the 2nd fibo extension at 1400). Our stop levels always are below the whole structure.
What happens if nothing of what you are saying here happens?
Then we don't trade; that simple. We only are interested in executing setups where we can see something several days in advance, and our filters are fulfilled. The risk we will be using on a setup like this is 1% to 2% of our Trading Capital. and if everything goes as expected, the duration of a setup like this can go between 200 to 300 days.
Thanks for reading, guys!
Stocks Trade SidewaysStocks rallied yesterday hitting our profit target to the tick before retracing back to the bottom of the range. The S&P seems to be in a sideways corrective pattern at the moment, finding good support at the bottom of the range at 4380. The Kovach OBV has dropped notably, so we will see at open if we have enough steam to hold the range. If so, expect a retracement at least to the mean at 4408 or so. Otherwise we will find support at 4364 and 4350. Our next profit target is 4462, which is garnered from the Fibonacci extension level of Fibonacci retracement levels anchored at the current range
BABA case study: Resolution of 200 days correctionToday we want to share our conclusions about the resolution of huge corrective patterns on BABA. One of the key aspects of Technical Analysis is to take advantage of anomalies in historical data; in other words, take advantage of situations that present some degree of repetitiveness to create a probabilistic scenario in our favor, where risking our money is worth.
In this case, we observe that after 200 days of correction, there is a specific sequence for bullish continuation movements.
1) Breakout of the structure
2) Clear Throwback (retest of broken structure) another characteristic is that the correction is very steep
3) The breakout of that correction represents a great opportunity in terms of risk-reward ratio if we set our stop loss below that pattern
Past behavior is no guarantee of future behavior, and bla bla bla.... That's absolutely true; however, if you are not in favor of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, you can see that there are subtle patterns in price data that we can take advantage of, not by saying, "This or that will happen, but by trying to get exposure to a specific pattern several times (taking the same trade 10 times), that way we can start observing an edge.
So, final conclusion in this case study: Now, we will comfortably sit in our chairs, and we will not do anything until the filter we have defined happens. If that's the case, we know exactly how we will trade. If the filter does not happen, guest what... We don't trade; there are more than 2000 stocks that you can wait for a BEAUTIFUL and PREMIUM scenario.
Thanks for reading!
Breakout for Stocks??The S&P 500 continues to range in a sideways corrective pattern. After its recovery from the dip and making new highs, this is a perfectly reasonable behavior and suggests that stocks may be gearing up for another breakout. We have held a very narrow range between 4389 and 4410. The more constrained the volatility in stocks, the more likely we are to see a breakout and today may be the day. Our next target is 4431. If we fail to breakout or continue the range, then 4380 or 4364 will provide support.
CRSR up move??howdy, :))
CRSR has got earnings in just 5 days. looks like its been consolidating since march! its been over sold by what my indicators are telling me. i feel like we will see some solid gains. we know the gaming sector is hot and we know its not going anywhere. i bought shares today for the long run so lets see what happens. they usually make money so i like companys that make money
APPLE after crushing earnings expectations. Let's see the chart!As you may know, Apple beat earnings expectations by almost 30% / revenue expectations by 10% / Growing revenue by 36% YOY. Those are great bases for growth. Now, Let's go 100% into the chart and see what conclusions we can make.
Current Situation:
a) The price is inside an ascending structure defined by the last higher highs and higher lows since September 2020. The lower zone is overwhelmingly clear, and the higher zone is composed only of two contacts, and we may be close to observing a new contact again due to the last rising impulse.
b) Besides the previous structure, we can also see the ascending trendline using the most external price levels of the current trend since the bottom of 2020. We have cloned it, and with that, we have an orientation of possible ambitious targets.
So, what's the plan here?
We have divided our view into two categories. Either the price can break the yellow structure, or it is not. If the price cannot break it, we may see a reaction on the higher level of the ascending yellow structure and a movement towards the next support level (the ascending trendline). This is not the most exciting scenario because it shows us that the price keeps trading in a range.
However, if the price breaks the yellow structure, that's the scenario we are interested in. Why? Because that may be the beginning of a new aggressive impulse towards the higher trendline of the channel.
Let's see some examples of this behavior in the past.
How long can it take for the movement to be completed and reach the expected bullish target?
We should be thinking, at least, between 150 - 250 days.
Please consider that nobody knows what the price will make. In the end, the only thing we can do is look for statistical patterns and develop setups based on random win rates (something like 45% -55%) and risk-reward ratios above 2. That way, you can develop an "edge" or a "positive expectancy" or a "statistical advantage," However you want to name it, After several setups.
Protect your capital, make your own due diligence, and trade safe! Thanks for reading.
