GME Bearish Flag formingLet the trolls begin lol.
To be real the volume has completely dried up since Jan on this stock. It makes sense since its trading at 200+ dollars and trading as high as some really good stocks like SQ and FDX. Others went on to other meme stocks that are much cheaper to trade. The average guy can no longer afford to buy up here and possibly lose his/her money due to the insane volatility. My guess is the only people pumping this stock up here are whales that still make alot money off of this and the average retail traders who are completely in love with this stock. I get it.
As far as the chart goes, I currently see an oversold situation in the hourly chart which creates the E part of the corrective wave (230ish) then finally come falling back to (153ish) in the .618 fib retracement which only makes sense as its also a trendline support. Stocks or Stonks, it finds a way to retrace back like the January high then a fib retracement of 1 due to the magnitude of the climb. I wouldn't be surprise further down the line it replicates the move up from Feb but in the opposite direction and finally settling back around 66ish area.
Dont hate the chartists, everyone is entitled to an opinion or you're just a pig.
Stonks
Don't like memes, a big play on AMCAMC made a huge run up to 70s but now needs to correct the leg that pushed it up. It is currently working on a descending triangle formation that will eventually lead to a proper fibonacci retracement near the low 30s which will most likely fill that gap up before running back up again. There is a huge possibility this can hit not suprisingly (meme) to 100 if it fills that gap. I would go short in near term but long when it comes down to my tgt near low 30s.
Is AAPL Benefiting From The Reddit Rally?AAPL shares are starting to get thrown in the mix with Reddit's memestocks trend right now. I don't think it's a bad thing to be honest and longs (including myself) aren't opposed to the positive momentum in the market. The stock itself has held a great trend and now continues consolidating on the daily chart with the 236 fib acting as a support level. Maybe the meme momo helps get the stock outta this consoldtain trend and finally start making new highs again.
"Believe it or not, one of the increasingly popular meme stocks right now on Reddit is Apple (AAPL). One might say this is one of the OG memers over the last few decades. Known for its disruptions in tech, Apple's products are used by millions of people"
Original Quote Source: Looking For More Meme Stocks? Here Are 6 Gaining Popularity Right Now
BABA on a key area. Bullish breakout or bearish continuation?Today we will share a daily view of the $BABA chart.
Main aspects we can see here:
-The price is facing an ascending trendline.
-The previous level converges with a support/resistance zone working since 2018.
-The current bearish trend can be defined as a descending Wedge pattern (if the price keeps moving between the structure lines, of course.)
If I'm interested in bullish movements only. What can you wait for before trading?
-A clear scenario for a bullish continuation movement would be a breakout of the structure followed by a corrective movement (like the circle you can see on the chart. Of course, take it as a model to replicate). IF that happens, we will be setting pending orders above the structure (green horizontal line), and we aim for a target on the next resistance zone 268 - 274
-Risk and time.
-We will be risking 1% of our capital on this setup. Meaning that if the price executes our order and then goes straight to our stop loss, we will be losing 1% of our capital at that level. Then, if we aim to a risk-reward ratio of 2, we will be making 2% of our capital in the best scenario. If the order is executed, we expect a resolution between 15 to 30 days.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comment box.
Triangle patterns - All you need to knowToday, we will explain the most important concepts behind triangle patterns.
The first thing you have to know is that triangle patterns are composed of 5 waves which we can define using letters "a,b,c,d,e" This concept was created by Ralph Nelson Elliott, one of the fathers of modern technical analysis and mainly known because of the "Elliott Wave Principle."
Most of the times , we are used to observing corrections with Zig-Zag shapes
These are really easy to spot because C always goes below A, and we can say, "NOW is finished." However, with triangle patterns, we need more patience, its not that easy to say "now is ready" because we never have waves that go above or below the other ones; it's a constant compression. That's the reason it is imperative to wait for 5 clear waves.
Another important concept of triangle patterns is that we can start drawing these two lines that will intersect in the future. These two lines will tend to contain the pattern until the breakout or the cancelation of it.
Ok, let's assume that you had the patience to spot a clear triangle pattern. How should I trade them?
ENTRY LEVEL: ALWAYS above "D" but much better above "B." Why? Because at that level, the price would have broken 2 resistances zones which is a strong sign for the bullish thesis.
STOP LEVEL: ALWAYS below A that was the main support of the structure, so we want to exit our position if the price goes below that level
TAKE PROFIT LEVELS: USE fibo extensions on the previous impulse and pay attention to two levels, 1.27 and 1.68
Important concept: Remember that context IS EVERYTHING. You don't want to trade isolated structures; you want to trade a structure and a macro context aligned with the view you have.
Final idea: Here, we have used a Real example on TSLA. We think that the best way to show these theoretical concepts is by looking for real scenarios and testing them. Here we think that the corrective pattern is not finished, and we want to observe a clear ABDE before setting confirmation areas. It's important to know also that technical analysis is not mathematic; it's closer to soft sciences/disciplines. This means that Technical Analysis is not a fundamental science that explains all the movements of the market; that would be nonsense; technical analysis provides us with statistical guidance that can help us project a probabilistic scenario which can happen or not.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your vision and ideas in the comment box.
Bitcoin is likely going lower.. but not just yetWyckoff distribution is so very painfully obvious.
I thoroughly enjoy when the big swingin 🍆's with giant piles of cash don't attempt to hide their tracks, because they don't think they need to..
and normally, they don't. Most countries cannot compete with trillions of dollars in capital that's also likely leveraged.
There's not a doubt in my mind that the primary driver of bitcoin to these prices is old fashioned naked short selling.
There is simply NOT ENOUGH BITCOIN for these sales to happen, but when you have enough cash -you're not worried about covering your shorts.
A topic for another day, but if you didn't get the "hint" in early 2018 when the newly initiated bitcoin joined the likes of paper Gold and Silver at the CME -the futures market not only drives spot price (of bitcoin ), but it damn near controls it.
However -there will come a point where supply runs out -especially if and when these sellers are caught with their pants down and unable to supply bitcoin for the buyers they're "selling" to.
An outcome that will likely only result in many losing the bitcoin they thought they had purchased, but unable to withdraw from the exchange -because the bitcoin does not exist.
This irresponsible tactic is illegal and has been since 2008, HOWEVER -it's not illegal on the open spot market for bitcoin .
We went over the possibility of a bullish RELIEF RALLY in my last post, and that’s most likely what we’re seeing here. PA has already pushed above some pretty critical resistance, but has done so with relatively LOW spot volume . (**low spot volume does NOT necessarily mean that the move is going to be rejected. Low volume + decreased supply (should) = higher prices).
Bitcoin is above the 34 WEMA, which is a pretty good sign for the bulls, however -it has not yet made it up to test the 21 WEMA and corresponding $40K resistance levels just yet. ((this is also critical resistance for a Wyckoff Distribution)).
BULLISH SCENARIO:
- Should BTC break across the 21WEMA and through $40K resistance, then I will become a bit more bullish in my sentiment.
- While a break above the 21 WEMA is definitely a great sign for the bulls, if they cannot push the price above the $52.255 price area, then we will likely see the price head back down towards $30K, possibly lower.
- A break above this price level would be EXTREMELY BULLISH , and bitcoin would likely break $70K very quickly.
BEARISH SCENARIO:
- A rejection at either of the two resistance areas mentioned ($40K and $52.255K), then a move back down to re test lower levels is likely.
- There is a TON of confluence at the $22K price level ($21.724K)
- There is also a bit of confluence...all the way down at $9.615K.
Right now it's just a bunch of observing. Waiting. Planning -looking for a "tell" one way or another.
A move ALL THE WAY DOWN TO $9.6K would be the greatest gift and should it fall down that far, we'll be ready.
ALSO -keeping a lot of my coiniage on exchanges at this point in time does give me a bit of anxiety, so positions are adjusted for risk -but still set up nicely should this thing resume its regularly scheduled bull run.
MEANWHILE -a BTC move up towards the $52K price area, followed by a rejection and move lower -would be INCREDIBLY bullish for ALT COINS, but we will see.
Traditional markets look RIPE for profit taking.
- TNX is falling sharply
- DXY is about to breakout
- SPX , DJI -all look like they're (finally) losing some steam.
I see the DXY getting anywhere from a 3 - 9% bounce, both of which would require a massive liquidity event.. and the only place I see that much cashish coming from are the old traditional stonks.
BTW... HAVE YOU SEEN THE GOLD SPOT CHART? on the WEEKLY or MONTHLY? HOLY MOLY -That's a MASSIVE cup and handle (i'll post a chart after I publish).
I think the signs are pretty clear, but I learned a LONG time ago to check my "confidence" at the door -but this one is staring us all right in the face.
Some days to note: June 21, June 25, and July 12.
June 21 and July 12th are astronomical.
June 25th is the QUARTERLY CME Settlement date.
It's gonna be a really neat month.
What are you all seeing? Are you bullish? bearish? Neutral? why? Intelligent thoughts and opinions welcomed!
CheeriHO
Will Stocks Maintain Highs??Stocks have inched out highs on Friday. Asia's opening has seen little movement from those levels. In order to maintain current levels we need some momentum desperately. Otherwise, we will likely see a retracement. As we have noted multiple times in this report, 4188 or 4144 would be nice targets for a selloff. Buying at these levels would be FOMO and would carry significant downside risks, so keep a narrow stop loss if you are long. The Kovach OBV is very gradually tapering up but is broadly speaking quite flat.
Things Looking Up for JPM this Summer?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on June 11, 2021 with a closing price of 159.92 on the hourly chart.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 161.6855 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.7815% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.577% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 23.5 trading bars; half occur within 36.5 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 44.5 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Traditional market analysis 12/06/2021 #3Hello everyone! Once again I'll have to repeat myself by saying that despite the fact stocks are overvalued, there could be much more upside. Given the way central banks and governments are acting, it is hard for me to see stocks reversing any time soon. Yes there will be some pretty strong corrections along the way and at some point a big bear market. But to me it looks like we are more in a situation like we were after breaking above the 2000-2008 highs or in 1987 than we are in 1970s or 2000s.
Other than the US all other stock markets were very depressed for 1 or even 2 decades. European stock markets have been showing a lot of strength and their charts are indicating significant upside from here rather than downside. Below I have added some European indices which all seem very very strong and with significant upside potential. In 2020 and so far in 2021 we had the US initially show most strength, then Asia and now Europe.
Of course this doesn't mean the US market is in a bad spot or anything. Quite the opposite. Actually European markets doing well is a very good sign for the risk on sentiment. Bond yields have been going lower in several places although some Central banks are raising rates. In my opinion in the EU and US we won't see higher rates any time soon and there is no other way out of this massive debt hole we are in. To me negative real rates are boosting stocks, as long as we don't see Oil getting completely out of control. As long as oil stays below 100$/barrel for some time and doesn't shock the market we could be OK. The same goes for most important commodities and especially Copper.
Currently the Russell 2000 is looking like it is about to come out of long period of re-accumulation. The Russell 3000 seems to be in a very strong uptrend that has the potential to continue even higher. We have no idea how massive this bubble could get as the biggest bubble is actually in the bond and currency markets. At least that's my opinion at the moment. This doesn't mean I think we will have hyper inflation or sustained inflation for more than 2-3 years, but it isn't impossible. Unfortunately policy makers are taking a ton of bad steps that are compounding little failures in the 'system' and eventually that will break either through social arrest or a market collapse. It's just not time yet and markets aren't that irrational yet... so dips are for buying and currently being long seems better than being short.
Where am I wrong at least for the short term? If the Russell 3000 closes below 2350. That's where my mental stop loss is.
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S&P500 still looking bullishIn terms of the global economy the flood of liquidity and government aid has been papering over the cracks which I don't know when or whether they are going to break. The situation isn't pretty, yet the markets don't really seem to be worried about anything long term. Inflation doesn't seem to be that much of an issue yet and markets just keep going higher thanks to the liquidity injections, people having more access and overall the bubble doesn't seem to over.
For the SPX500 a dip to 3990 would be very healthy and a great buying the dip opportunity, although it might come after we touch the top diagonal first and currently SPX is bullish across all timeframes and still sitting above support very nicely. I'll create some ideas pretty soon supporting this one regarding other asset classes that people might find interesting so stay tuned!
The bull market in stocks is getting stretched and there are some signs of weakness in some, but there aren't signs of extreme froth either. I've been very big on the idea that the bull isn't over and won't be over any time soon, although a 15-20% correction probably isn't far away. So far corrections have been very shallow and in my opinion we'll get a big drop at some point. For now though everything looks pretty bullish. Chinese stocks have shown significant strength and they have held their bullish structure. A little dip from here would be ideal for going long. Russell 2000 and Nikkei have been extremely weak, but I am still not sold on the idea that they will go into a large dip soon. The Nasdaq 100 is looking weak, yet I see nothing worrying. The DAX has been one of the most bullish ones along with other European indices, however it is one of those that worry me a little bit more in the short term as every time it broke above ATHs it then collapsed and currently it has a bit of
[Trade Review] How I traded $SNAP, $NIO + RECAP SET UPSIn this video I will reviewing showing/ explaining $NIO & $SNAP that were posted in a pervious video about the set up on my New Series *Set Ups For the Week Traded riot & NIO using my knowledge of technical Analysis, sharing my levels: Support & Resistance, my trendlines, Fibs, Waves, Price Action, Channels , Emas, and prior experienced , while providing both bullish & bearish scenarios for you to be able t to understand my analysis and wait for confirmation as always!
Want to see more content like this? Like and Subscribe!
*DISCLAIMER: These videos are for educational purposes only. Nothing in this video should be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment. Consult with a professional financial advisor before making any financial decisions.*
Stock Hugging HighsStocks have made a run for highs, but faced steep opposition there. We saw some big volatility yesterday, rejecting 4245, taking us back down 20 points to 4225, then retracing back again. There is a clear affinity for highs, but it will take some momentum to solidly break them. It could go either way so watch for momentum at the open. We still feel we are in need of a healthy retracement to 4188 or 4144, but we cannot deny the bull bias. The Kovach OBV is tapering up, but still pretty weak. Strong momentum at open will be key to a breakout. If so, our next target is 4272.
Action Soon for Stocks??Stocks continue to maintain a very narrow range between 4214 and 4225. The longer it maintains this range, the more likely a breakout becomes. We feel that it would be healthy for stocks to feel out lower levels before making new highs, and are preparing for a dip down to 4188 or 4144. The Kovach OBV is still flat and our outlook will not change until we see some life again. Levels from above will provide formidable resistance such as 4245 and 4272. It is unlikely we will hit our target of 4293 any time soon.
ASX:HUM back on my radars with potential good mood humm🎁🙌🎁ASX:HUM has been in a bear market for last few months after hitting the 1.36$ apogee, it plummeted to the abyss losing almost 30% of the recent high value. But there are signs hidden into the charts that shows it may be ready for another explosive move to the upside. Lets dive right to the technical analysis.
This stock has managed to extricate itself from the range 0.950 to 1.025$ which in my opinion was rather bearish than bullish and since then it has shown sign of strength, where it is attempting to break the 1.1$ levels. Escaping that range was followed by high volume as you can see on the chart.
The stock is above both 50MA and 200MA and its PSAR is on the bullish side. Also looking at the chart pattern from early April 2021, it looks like a cup without a handle, and I am looking for price to break above the 1.1$ to scale my position.
On the target side, first target is 1.16$ which corresponds to the golden fib level of the retracement from recent highs to recent lows. After that I will have my eyes to the 1.2$
I will keep you posted of any change on this stock and if any weakness is found I will let you know.
In meantime, as a service request from you, please share these TA charts with your friends and tell them to follow me. I am working on many more charts to share with you not only in stocks but also in crypto. Stay in touch.
XTF.
HOW TO: Trading the WallStreetBets Stonks with Cascading StopsHadn't seen any videos of anyone doing something as silly as this (which of course fits into the WSB philosophy) so thought I'd make a video of it and share it in case it amused or inspired anyone else.
Just something I have been having a bit of fun with over the last couple of weeks.
You could do this with any broker, but I REALLY like the simplicity of doing this all within TradingView and using TradeStation as the integrated brokerage free broker.
Note: You would not do this if you were paying brokerage.
What I do is:
1. Create a list of WSB type stocks.
2. Watch in the pre-market to see which ones are getting the attention.
3. Try and buy as early in the move as your broker allows.
4. Add a stop loss a bit below your buy price - eg 5% or so. Nice and tight.
5. As the stock price moves up, start to break down your stop loss into lots of mini stops.
Idea is that as the stock moves up, you are moving your stops up, BUT rather than one big stop that gets your whole holding exited, you can place lots of smaller stops (even place some ahead of the price) so that as volatility happens you auto exit some of your position hopefully taking profit along the way.
Rinse and repeat.
Definitely NOT trading advice. As before, it really is a silly idea, but hey its also a bit of fun for now and seems to work reasonably well for these kinds of stocks that spike big in one day and then start to equally quickly pull back.
Might be better to simply buy and hold them, but you never know when they will inevitably come crashing down, and more so which one is going to be the focus of the day.
Like and subscribe if you like it.
One of those videos you can skip through once you see the initial concept...
Narrow Range for Stocks. Breakdown??Stocks are still maintaining a very narrow range at the apex of our Gartley pattern. The fact that they are not inclined to break to the upside suggests that we could be in for that selloff we've been anticipating. Watch the news and momentum in the morning. If there is not much hype backing stocks this morning, and we don't see momentum come through at open today could be the day we see our retracement. If so, watch 4188, or 4144 for support. The Kovach OBV is stagnant, and we have strong resistance from 4224 and 4245.
Stocks Stagnant... Dump Coming??Stocks seem unable to break past 4228, the level they attained based on NFP numbers Friday. If the S&P is unable to budge from this resistance level, it most assuredly will dump, and perhaps our Gartley pattern was correct after all. We are starting to see a bit of a dip back to 4214, and if this does not hold we will see support from 4188. Stocks do appear to be a bit overweight right now, and due for a correction, which could easily take us back to our target price of 4147, based on the CD segment of the cypher. The Kovach OBV is pretty stagnant so this could easily come to fruition soon.
Bullish Setup on TLRY, we are ready to get high.Today we have a bullish setup on TLRY to share with you. We will be taking this setup using 1% of our capital, and we aim to make 4% on this setup. Of course, we can have a bad trip on this one... However, the risk-reward ratio is a key aspect of our strategy. Generally speaking, we have a win rate of 50% and an average risk-reward ratio of 2 (all you need to make money in the long term)
Let's start with the view:
-The price has been trending lower since February 2021. Now we are observing a possible change in trend, and we want to take advantage of this probable situation.
-As you can see on the chart from May, we have been observing a sequence of higher highs, and higher lows + the price broke a key resistance zone (currently, we are observing a retest of that)
-Based on all the previous items, we have defined but stop orders on the breakout of the current correction and stop orders below the structure. The target we will be aiming at is 29.5 with a protective level at 24.00 (there we will move our stop loss to break-even)
If the price doesn't execute our setup and keeps going lower, we will cancel the setup. And if the price reaches our entry-level and our stop loss is executed. That's trading; we will face a -1% loss.
Thanks for reading!
Stocks Wavering, Looking WeakStocks are forming a bear flag with a POC right at our 4188 level, which is a technical level and a Fibonacci level. We have adjusted our stop loss just above 4228, but the more conservative could adjust it to break even, or a few ticks in profit. We have one more level from below, 4165, before our target of 4147. If we are wrong and we get a burst of momentum, then 4214 will be the first level to provide resistance. The Kovach OBV is still pretty flat, suggesting life has not returned to stocks and we need more enticing prices.