Stonks
Cautiously Optimistic of StocksStocks saw some incredible volatility yesterday. No doubt some of this is related to the GameStop saga. The S&P 500 has completely retraced the bear move only to give back thse gains and settle around a cluster of levels beginning at 3737. It is likely to find support here, at least for the moment, which seems to be verified over the past few hours. If it breaks further down it will have support at 3714. the next level is in the 3600 handle at 3694. The Kovach OBV has whipsawed which is extremely rare. Usually this indicator goes with the overall trend. This is telling us that there is an extreme amount of momentum in stocks lately, in both directions: selling and buying. It is difficult to determine the overall direction of stocks, however we still remain cautiously bullish for now.
Cypher Pattern Breakdown in StocksStocks have faced a tremendous retracement. The S&P has blasted through levels in the 3800 handle. It tested the low 3700's before finally finding support. There is a bearish cypher crab pattern on the daily chart. This is an extremely bearish sign, and such a large selloff could be the initial breakdown from this pattern. The Kovach OBV is registring the sell off. Currently, the S&P is ranging between 3712 and 3750. It is reasonable that it should try to find footing after such a tremendous selloff. The boundaries of this range will provide support/resistance, so pay attention to what happens at open. The next levels of support are in the 3600's at 3695, then 3676 then 3658.
Stocks Reject Highs!! When to Buy??Our prediction in stocks was 100% on point yesterday! We wrote that stocks would have resistance at highs. At the open, the Kovach Momentum indicator (short term momentum) was flat, suggesting that there was little or no momentum at all. To break through to new highs, we require a nice burst. In the absence of momentum, ATH's act as a wall, which the price will swiftly reject. That's exactly what happened. Some of our traders were able to take advantage of this making serious profits off this rejection. The S&P 500 crossed the entire range, finally piercing through 3825. It finally found some support at 3810, which has now solidified its utility as a technical level in addition to a Fibonacci level. Expect stocks to take a breather here. The Kovach OBV has turned, registering the bear momentum. This is likely to continue, though we should see a bit of a retracement at current levels.
Expanding Megaphone on Berkshire Hathaway + Trade IdeaExpanding Megaphone on Berkshire Hathaway
-The main structure we are observing right now is an expanding megaphone
-Currently, the price is above a major resistance zone (previous ATH)
-IF the price breaks above the last ATH, we expect a bullish movement towards the higher trendline of the megaphone
-The secondary structure we are observing is the Ascending channel (yellow lines)
TRADE IDEA:
-Here, we are looking for a 1 : 2 Risk Reward Ratio. The first Fibo extension is the break-even level, and the 2nd one is the Target level.
-We will risk 1% of our Trading Capital on this setup.
-If the price goes below the Stop zone without executing the setup, we will keep moving it below the price until we reach a minimum risk-reward ratio of 1 : 1.5 (if the price keeps falling, we will cancel the idea)
-In case our setup is executed, we expect a resolution of 30 to 45 days
RKT possible falling wedge, currently at a bottom low and every time it has bounced off this bottom line it has taken an average of 11 days for it to go to high 22's or low 23's.
Flag Pattern on DIS, We are ready to execute this setupToday, we will show our view on DIS; let's start with the Weekly view:
The price is above two key channels, and we don't spot any other Dynamic resistance zone for the price
On the 4hs chart:
We can see a clear Flag pattern supported on the secondary broken ascending channel. Based on the Fibo extensions we can draw, we expect a bullish movement first towards 200 and then 225
The green line represents our activation level for the setup; We will set our stop loss below the Flag pattern and break even when the price reaches a risk-reward ratio of 1:1
Stocks Back to Highs! Will they Breakout??Stocks had a little flash crash that was immediately bought back up. Currently, the S&P is sitting at highs. After a crash like that it was lucky to get bought back to highs let alone break out again. The Kovach OBV has run out of steam and is flat at current levels. This is not a divergence quite yet, but it does suggest stocks should at least range a bit before another breakout. It could go either way at this point. Watch if the S&P tests and rejects highs at 3867. If it keeps rejecting highs, it will constitute a bearish signal. If we are able to breakout, 3887 will provide resistance and is our next target. Yesterday, 3792 provided beautiful support and it is no accident that this is one of our significant levels. It is a Fibonacci level and a technical level. Watch for it to provide support again if we have another dump
Nokia Bullish Short Term Target (NOK)We've seen a similar setup like this before with NOK that resulted in a huge jump. Scaling 1:1 historical moves compared to this move, we should be looking at a price target of around $6.30. This would test the upper limit of the Bollinger bands and I would expect to see some strong pushback near $6.30. If we hit that mark, I'll be doing a follow-up analysis of where we can expect to go. A full bullish trend for NOK on the fuel of 5G being developed globally could be in the cards. Telecoms infrastructure still marches on as COVID moves through the US, meaning the upcoming earnings report could post better than expected.
Stocks Ranging Before Another BreakoutStocks are ranging between 3825 and 3867. These are both levels identified by us, in addition to the ranging. Since it is Monday, we are unlikely to see any significant moves, so anticipate the ranging to continue, but we will know more details towards the open. The next target is 3887. We should easily hit this with another burst of momentum. If we retrace, we have some options for support from Fibonacci levels below at 3811, 3800 (also a psychological level), and 3792, which coincides with a technical level. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has recently flat-lined, confirming the ranging behavior.
After 150 days. Are we observing a breakout? MSFTWhy should we pay attention to MSFT as a major market driver?
Because MSFT + AAPL makes more than 10% of the SPY Index holding (AAPL: 6.68% / MSFT: 5,29%), We can deduce that any major movement on these 2 assets will be a major driver for the stock market as a whole.
What can we see on AAPL?
Like MSFT, we can observe a broken Triangle Pattern and the price making ATH, so we expect more bullish pressure coming.
And what about AMZN?
AMZN makes 4.37% of the SPY holdings, and we can see the same type of structure as MSFT and AAPL
What can we conclude based on these structures?
The way we approach the market is using Technical Analysis as a major tool to understand the accumulation and distribution process. Meaning that we aim to know if institutional traders are buying or selling certain assets based on Price structures. Elliott / Wykoff / Dow developed this type of approach.
Our conclusion is that if we are observing accumulation structures (which we think they are), we should expect a bullish impulse in these 3 assets that will be a major driver for the stock market as a whole.
Thanks for reading!
Auntie Likey New to the game but buying limit orders for me and my doge lexy! Ether is about to blow the top off.... hopefully i can get a good spot price for it.
LONG TRX, inverted head and shoulders hidden bullish divergenceAs we can see, from 21dec to 3rd Jan there was a lower low, however volume is increasing. This is a strong bullish divergence. This pattern is followed up with an inverted head and shoulders with nice volume pattern confirmations, as there is a declining volume on the way down on the left shoulder, and increasing volume on the way up, with the same applying for the head as we see a declining volume on the way down and increasing volume on the way up for the head, and the same for the right shoulder. The slight hidden bullish divergence with higher lows but lower volume indicates that no one wants to sell anymore at such prices. The neckline resistance is expected to break, and we should reclaim at least the 200ma in the coming days.
Stocks Reject Highs. What's Next?As we told you yesterday in the reports, stocks retraced to 3825. This is a strong level of support. Both Kovach Momentum indicators are solidly bearish, leading us to think the pendulum may swing back soon. Additionally there is a cluster of green triangles on the Kovach Reversals indicating that we are seeing some candlestick reversal patterns. If we do see a bounce, the S&P will likely feel out the range between 3825 and 3867. If we are wrong watch for 3811, 3800, and 3792 to provide support.
A Bullish breakout means a 15% upside potential / ABTToday, we will take a look at ABBOTT laboratories.
- From a technical perspective, the price is above an ascending channel
- Since August 2020, we observed a 150 days consolidation
- We can now see an ascending triangle, which is considered a continuation pattern once the flat line is broken.
- IF we have a clear breakout, we expect a bullish movement towards 132
- ABBOTT is an extremely bullish stock that has been performing really well (+80% in 2020)
- We will consider that the setup is no longer valid if the price goes below 99USD per share
Stonks Make New Highs!! What's Next??As you all are undoubtedly aware, stocks made new highs yesterday. They met resistance exactly at 3856, the level we called out for weeks. Finally they inched past this level to 3867, where they are currently facing resistance. Almost certainly they will break out higher. They could range to feel out this new price territory first, however, so don't get too excited. The S&P is at highs, so jumping into a long trade would definitely be FOMO. It is certainly possible that we could retrace to 3825. The Kovach OBV is very strong, so we are in buy on dip mode. Nested Fibonacci levels give us a price target of 3887, and then 3935.
S&P Bull Wedge Forming?Stocks bounced pretty hard off lower levels, but are still having issues making new highs. The level 3758 provided support as we said it would. We blasted through the next level 3792, which provided little resistance. It will provide support now. We should expect more resistance at all time highs. It will take a lot of momentum to break through and establish new highs. However we do appear to be in the midst of forming a bull wedge pattern, so chances are stocks are bottling up for a breakout. Consider dips as buying opportunities to accumulate a position before the breakout. The next target is 3856.
S&P Ranging Before InaugurationThe S&P 500 has rejected highs. We have been calling this out for weeks. We appear to have a double top as well at 3825. It did find support at 3758, which is a technical and Fibonacci level, and now is finding support from 3793. The Kovach OBV does seem to be edging up, but nothing to suggest a breakout today. It could go either way at this point: to retest highs or lower levels 3758 or 3737. But don't anticipate too much action in stocks until after the inauguration tomorrow.
ASX:SYR ready to play in the bullish club? 🧨🚨😀🚨ASX:SYR, has lost the enthusiasm of investors since the plunge from the 6$ levels. Everyone was thinking it is a dying stock. It dropped to the abyss towards 0.150$ during the Covid crash in March 2020. But is it time to reboot this dinosaur and prepare the entry for a multi-bagger potential speculation? Lets dive deep and analyze.
ASX:SYR has not been on my radars for quite a while as it was in a clear downtrend, but for the last 9 months, it seems to prepare for a well known bullish structure. that is none other than the Cup and Handle structure. This structure is inherently bullish and I am waiting to see it playing out before I open any long term position on this stock.
With current situation, this Cup and Handle would be playing out if the price was to break the 1.30$ levels but remember this can only be confirmed if the breakout volume is good enough and if the price stays above the 1.3$ levels.
For now, I am keeping this stock on my observation list and see what it does in next few weeks. From other Indicators point of view:
Weekly PSAR says we are in a bull trend. We are above 21 Weekly EMA, which is a good sign as well. RSI is in overbought territory which worries me a little bit. The stock is near its 52 weeks high this a sign of strength. This stock is over 140% above its 200MA this is over extended and entering requires to be very careful and play well with the SL.
I will keep an eye on this stock and will update you when I find anything interesting or if the structure is invalidated.
Lately I have not been sharing charts and some of you asked me what happened but I am gathering great structure that potentially can lead to juicy profits. Also I am waiting to see the clear direction of the major indexes as of now we seem to be in a choppy zone and that is not a great place to be trading. it is a place to strategize.
Stay safe and if you like this TA, smash the likes and share it with your friends.
XTF
EUR/USD Weekly Review 1/15/20Please see my old post for context. We have confirmed a structure break and it will be interesting to see if this down move picks up steam or retraces the next week.
What I got WRONG:I anticipated more bids around 1.21 and below.
What I got RIGHT: Bearish sentiment and confirmed down trend
On the news front next week is busy, especially the later half. As I mentioned earlier it appears politics, for better/worst is driving volatility. I'll revisit this idea later this weekend
