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Stocks Fail to Break OutAs anticipated yesterday, the S&P 500 has rejected highs and sought support 3810, just under the mid point of the range the S&P 500 has been holding for July. This retracement was highly probable because we did not see the momentum follow through at open that it would take to break out higher. From here, we could test lows again, around 3737, which should hold as a floor. If momentum returns, we could test highs again at 3909, and potentially form a bull wedge pattern at this level which could indicate a potential breakout later this week.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Can Stocks Break Out??Stocks have rallied, with the S&P topping out at 3909. We have completely retraced the range, as recession fears and soaring inflation scared market participants last week causing a dip that tested lows at 3737. After breaking through this level and testing the next level below at 3714, we promptly pivoted, and retraced losses completely. However, we are running into resistance at 3909, and resistance is building confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, but it will take more momentum to break through to higher levels. Resistance above is thin, and there are only three levels above before the 4000 handle. If we fail to break resistance, we should find support at roughly the midpoint of the range, at 3848, or again at lows at 3714.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Continue to RangeStocks have found support off lows after the selloff yesterday. Nearly double digit CPI did not fare well for stocks, with some market participants pricing in a 100 bps rate hike at the FOMC later this month. We at pivoted at 3714 after breaking lows at 3739. Currently, it appears that we are making a run back to the midpoint of the range but are struggling with resistance at 3810. If we are able to punch through this resistance, then we could make a run for the highs of the range at 3909. Othwerise, we expect 3714 to provide support, then 3694 if it caves.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Golds Run Is OverThere are a lot of predictions regarding gold and how it's going to start its bullrun and a move to 5000 in the next 1-5 years but I really don't see it that way. In this 6 month candle chart you can see that in the next 7days we will be closing and confirming what seems to be a potential "Gravestone Doji" signalling a trend reversal . Also we are inside a massive ascending wedge which is a bearish pattern and we have been in the monster 22 year run which hit 2.618 . So how far is gold going to realistically run? with the 4.236 extension not that far off. I just don't see it in the charts for gold. My bet is gold breaks down from here and goes back to 1.618 for a couple of years after its mega 22 year run like it did after the blow off top of 1980. It's 2022 not the year 2000, investors in this time period are leaning towards cryptocurrency more than gold , nobody has time for gold , silver on the other hand is looking a lot better.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Sporia
19
Inflation Weighs on StocksAs anticipated yesterday, inflation data came in very close to double digits, which rocked stocks. Traders are now pricing in the potentiality of a 100 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late July , the largest increase since the 1990's . This has weighed on stocks which have tested the lower bounds of the range. So far we are seeing good support from around 3737, with confirmation from a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has slumped over with the selloff, but we do appear to have bottomed for now with current levels of support. If we selloff further, we could test lows at 3645. If we pivot from here, we could retest the highs of the range at 3909 or 3937.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Stocks Level Off; Await CPIThe S&P 500 has continued to retrace, leveling off around 3810. We are seeing good support here confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has flatlined, suggesting we need more momentum to come through before anything exciting happens. We will need to wait for CPI to be released at 8:30 AM EST. As we discussed yesterday, the markets are awaiting this data point, and will likely be quiet until then across all asset classes. All eyes are on this print, as we neared double digits last time, and recent European CPI had a similar reading. If we are able to rally, then 3937 is a likely ceiling. If we selloff further, then 3737 should be considered a floor.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Await Inflation DataStocks retraced as anticipate yesterday. We fell exactly to the intermediary level of support we suggested yesterday, at 3825. The Kovach OBV has topped and rounded off, suggesting the weak momentum we saw last week has dissipated for now. We won't expect to see any significant moves, as the markets are anticipating CPI data tomorrow. With all eyes being on inflation and the print expected to potentially read in the double digits as per the last reading and in Europe , this could spell another hit for stocks tomorrow. If we are able to rally, then 3937 is a likely ceiling. If we selloff further, then 3737 should be considered a floor.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Can The Stock Rally Sustain?Stocks appear to be running into resistance at 3909, after a slow trek upwards from the 3700's. The rally was labored, with resistance confirmed at every technical level along the way by red triangles on the KRI. We are seeing a bit of a retracement, to 3867, with support confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has been bullish, but does appear to be rounding off. This fact, combined with the weakness of last week's rally, suggests we may be in for another selloff. If so, we could retrace the entire rally to 3737, which should be considered a floor. The level 3825 is a reasonable intermediary level of support. If we are able to break out, then 3937, a relative high, will surely provide resistance.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
How Will Stocks Begin July?Stocks have begun July with a whimper so far, maintaining a very narrow range after selling off from the 3900's. We have found support in the mid 3700's, but appear to be forming a bear flag pattern. Volatility has consolidated which may portend a breakout. If so, we could make a run for the 3900's again, with 3825 and 3937 likely targets to the upside. If we sell off from here, then 3645 is a likely floor. The Kovach OBV has started to uptick slightly, which could indicate a bull divergence.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Press LowerStocks pressed lower as we anticipated yesterday. The S&P 500 was hanging on by a thread yesterday at 3825, and sure enough, support caved, and we were able to test lower levels. We crossed a vacuum zone to find support at 3758. We currently appear to be finding support there, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. If support does not hold here, we anticipate 3658 or 3645 to hold as a floor. If we are able to rally, then watch for resistance at 3825, with 3937 a likely ceiling.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
GDP to Weigh on StocksStocks took a dive from the high 3900's. We identified 3909 as a likely target in the previous report, and a brief rally was able to hit this target and then some, coming just shy of the 4000 handle, and retracing just shy of a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the selloff from the 4000's back in early June. We have since retreated to support at 3825, which is a relative high and strong technical level from a relative high on June 15th. We appear to be hanging on by a thread and the Kovach OBV has slumped. If momentum does not pick up, then we could test lows at 3645. US first quarter GDP came out contractionary , and the second quarter is not looking much better. Recall that two quarters of shrinking GDP is what many use as the definition of a recession.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Testing Relative HighsThe S&P 500 has steadily risen, though this rally looks very weak. We have gredually made higher highs, and are currently encroaching upon a relative high at 3825. The Kovach OBV appears quite bullish, which could indicate there is more in the tank for stocks. If we are able to breakout further, we could solidify the mid 3800's, with 3909 a likely ceiling. Since we are at relative highs, watch for momentum at open. If it is insufficient to break through current levels, then a retracement is likely with 3758 a likely support level and 3645 a likely floor.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
S&P 500 Breakout??The S&P 500 has continued to range establishing an upper bound at 3792, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We have been edging up with higher lows, and volatility has consolidated suggesting we are gearing up for a breakout. The Kovach OBV is still pretty bullish, suggesting a bullish divergence and possible bull breakout. If so, we must clear 3825 before attempting higher levels. The level 3792 is providing strong resistance and if we fail to break it at open we are likely to reject it in which case 3694 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
8 Days left for the Chainlink Sequence! Its been a interesting May but not shocking in anyway , I have been covering this downtrend all year and talked about the crash in May 2022 months before. Published January 2022 Published March 2022 How did I pinpoint May 2022 for this move? keep reading. First lets go over the chart and possible move from here , so been playing around with this Gann Fan from the inception of Chainlink and its showing some nice confluence in some areas. Last time Chainlink touched the 2/1 Gann Fann it was 2019 where it hovered over it for about 120 days before shooting off , One possible senario here is that we just go sideways over this Gann until the next Fib time date 3.618 3rd October 2022. Even though Chainlink broke down from its decending wedge in price , the pattern is still playing out on the weekly RSI , check it out . Last TA showing chainlink breaking down from decending wedge . So now the most important part of the puzzle, why May 2022? Back in 2019 there was a LINK/BTC dominance channel I use to trade and by testing out hundreds of Fib time seqeunces I found one that hits home runs the last 4 times. Everytime we come to a date LINK has had a massive move to the upside will it happen again this time who knows? The date is 23rd May 2022 and April 24th 2024 is the one after when the next Bitcoin halving is which is very interesting. In 6 hours the weekly candle closes and if the weekly candle of this dominance chart closes at this level it can techically confirm a decending wedge with two lower touch points. Since the I believe we topped April 2022 and it normally takes bitcoin 406 days to capulate from a cycle top I came to the conclusion that the next Chainlink sequence in May 2022 was likely going to be some sort of bottom. Chainlink has retraced 89% thats 1% more than the retrace in 2017 take a look. There is only 8 days left until the next Fib date poeple and Chainlink just retraced 89%!
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by Sporia
11
Pinpointing the Cycle BottomPinpointing the cycle bottom is pretty much impossible but we will give it a go anyways. This Gann Fan you see on the chart has had amazing reactions in the past : 1. Covid crash bottom hit 8/1 Gann perfectly 2. Covid weekly candles closing on 3/1 Gann 3. Price hovering over 2/1 Gann before starting the bullrun. Amazing reactions last couple of years so hopefully we can still use it as a template for things to come. So I have narrowed down a possible timeframe and price where Bitcoin could bottom , somewhere inside this red circle price could find a cycle bottom, between 14k -16.5k. Could we wick lower than the 3/1 Gann yes but to close under it I highly doubt it. Also there is a Fib Date coming up week of 18th July 2022 , last two times we had moves to the upside infact the last one was amazing and pinpointing that massive pivot up last july.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
Stocks Dump on Recession FearsStocks have taken a dive, off renewed recession fears. We anticipated resistance at highs, and if you recall from yesterday, we surmised that if momentum was insufficient to break the relative highs at the time, a dump was likely. That is exactly what happened. We were barely able to peak above 3758, but failed to test the next level at 3792. Subsequently, we slid back to 3694, where we are currently seeing some support. We could see a further selloff to lows, however, it is likely that stocks will range between 3645 and 3792.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy