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XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert GeneratorXPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert Generator Long-Term Trailing-Stop study detecting S&P500 Stock Market Crashes/Corrections and showing Volatility as warning signal for upcoming crashes Detecting or avoiding stock market crashes seems to be the 'Holy Grail' of strategies/studies. This study detects all major S&P500 stock market crashes and corrections since 1980 depending on the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter. The 5 crashes/corrections of 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2010 were successfully detected with the default parameters. With the default parameters this study generates 5954% profit, with 6 closed trades, 100% profitable, while the Buy&Hold strategy only generates 2427% profit, so this strategy beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 2.45 times! The script shows a lot of graphical information: the green area shows a trading period (between buy and sell) the close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is temporarily lower than the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade. the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as colored curves the Volatility is show below in green and red. The alert threshold (red) is default set to 200 (see Volatility Warning Threshold parameter below) Trailing Stop Smoothness value: Adjust the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter to hide/show smaller corrections/crashes: 96: 6 trades, 100% profit, 5954% profit, detected crashes: 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010 90: 8 trades, 100% profit, 5347% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011 74: 9 trades, 100% profit, 4964% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015 41: 10 trades, 100% profit, 4886% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015 How to use this alert generator? Add to your alerts to get an automatic warning (via e-mail) of an upcoming stock market crash Optimize parameters using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters More trades don't necessarily generate more overall profit. It is important to detect only the major crashes and avoid closing trades on the smaller corrections. Bearing the smaller corrections generates a higher profit. Watch out for the volatility alerts generated at the bottom (red). Threshold can by changed by the Volatility Warning Threshold parameter (default 2% ATR). In almost all crashes/corrections there is an alert ahead of the crash. Although the signal doesn't predict the exact timing of the crash/correction, it is a clear warning signal that bearish times are ahead! The current correction in march 2018 is not yet a major crash but there was already a red volatility warning alert. If the volatility alert repeats the next weeks/months, chances are higher that a bigger crash or correction is near. As can be seen in the graphic, the deeper the crash is, the higher and wider the red volatility signal goes. So keep an eye on the red flag! Information about the parameters: see below If you are interested in buying this S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert Generator, please drop me a message to receive the code (Price 99$).
SP:SPXShort
by XPl0RR
1
Lesson 5: Stop-Loss Strategy | A must needed for tradersHello Traders, I am back with yet another helpful lesson for y'all. This one is a must needed for any trader, and it is extremely important to get this right. A lot of people face a situation when they buy a coin at a higher price, and it just starts going down, and you just hold it in the hopes that it will go up soon. But instead, it just keeps going down more and more. Believe it or not there are many people out there who are still holding that coin because of just one mistake. They did not had a stop-loss order opened after they bought a coin. If they had a stop-loss order opened up, they would have been out at a minimal loss rather than waiting few months for the coin to come back up. If they had set up a stop-loss order, they could've bought the coin at its lowest, and then earned all those profits in lesser time. Don't you worry. I will go over this in a simple way so you can understand this topic really well. Keep in mind this is extremely important to cut your losses especially when we are not sure about the direction that BTC is heading in. Below are the topics we will go over today: What is a Stop-Loss Order? Strategize your Stop-Loss order price Advantages of Stop-Loss Disadvantages of Stop-Loss Note: For the above topic, please refer to the BTC chart above. Lets go over the topics now. What is a Stop-Loss order? A Stop-Loss order is an order set by a trader which will sell the coin if its price reaches below a set price (Stop Price) in this case. Basically if we buy a coin at $10, and you set a stop price at $8. Now, if the coin goes below $8, and if you have a Stop-Loss order up, it will open a Limit Order at the limit price you gave once the price reaches below your set Stop-Loss price. In simple terms, lets look at an example below: i0.wp.com Coin Buy price: 23000 Coin Stop: 20000 Coin Limit: 19000 Refer to the link above to see a image of how stop-loss looks like on Binance. Now lets say you buy a coin at 23000, and after you buy it, you set a stop-limit sell order with a Stop price of 20000, and sell (limit) price of 19000. So now once your coin goes below 20000, the system will automatically open a sell order at your set limit price which in this case is 19000. The benefit of this is that it cuts your losses if the coin keeps going down from that level. I know what you might be thinking right now. What if the coin doesn't keep going down from that level. This would go against you then. You are correct, but it is extremely important at what price you set your stop loss order at. We will discuss that strategy in the next topic below. I hope it is clear to you so far. That was just the intro on what Stop-Loss actually is. Now we can look at what sort of strategy we can use around it. Continue reading below....
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by MoneyChartz
3
DGD in AccumulationJust took a position in BINANCE:DGDBTC . It has settled on some strong support and looks like its in accumulation. I have my stop loss set for .0276 for a %5 risk of loss and looking for a target at .0437 for a %50 gain. As the price moves up I am going to move my stop-loss up. Digix just launced their DGX marketplace, with gold backed DGX tokens. DGX is different than DGD. DGD is the fuel for exchanging DGX and proof of stake in the DAO. If you want a stable coin to store wealth in, consider converting ETH to DGX on the Digix marketplace.
DLong
by OakAndClay
15
My Limit buy triggered right before the recent upswing.Was able to ride the upward bounce off of the fib after it wicked below jsut enough to trigger my limit buy...I don't anticipate the bears are done yet though...especially since the upcoming 1day chart death cross is still seeming like an inevitability in the coming days. Now that I ahd a successful limit buy triggered I qwill likely put another top loss a few pips below where I originally limit bought back in ensuring that I only sshort again if it goes noticeably and reasonably lower than where wI just bought back in but not too much lower just enough to where a long wick wont cause me to miss the trend reversal. You all do as you see fit as this is not financial advice but as you can see on my chart my limit buy triggered precisely...however this bounce needs a ton of bull momentum to see any real sustainability. If not, and the death cross on the 1 day occurs we could plummet all the way as far down as the ascending grey trendline which I still am confident would provide serious support...however for now I think the biggest downside could be the grey trendline most likely somewhere around the $7200 region my new stop loss will probably be triggered $153 under where I triggered my limit buy. Do as you choose as this is not financial advice! Thanks for reading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection StrategyXPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy Long-Term Trailing-Stop strategy detecting S&P500 Stock Market Crashes/Corrections and showing Volatility as warning signal for upcoming crashes Detecting or avoiding stock market crashes seems to be the 'Holy Grail' of strategies. Since none of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy, the purpose was to detect a stock market crash on the S&P500 and step out in time to minimize losses and beat the Buy&Hold strategy. So beat Buy&Hold strategy with less then 10 trades. 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade. With the default parameters the strategy generates 5954% profit, with 6 closed trades, 100% profitable, while the Buy&Hold strategy only generates 2427% profit, so this strategy beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 2.45 times! Also the strategy detects all major S&P500 stock market crashes and corrections since 1980 depending on the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter, and steps out in time to cut losses and steps in again after the bottom has been reached. The 5 crashes/corrections of 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2010 were successfully detected with the default parameters. The script shows a lot of graphical information: the close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is temporarily lower than the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade. the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value is lower than the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed) the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as colored curves the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue the Volatility is show below in green and red. The alert treshold (red) is default set to 200 (see Volatility Warning Treshold parameter below) Trailing Stop Smoothness value: Adjust the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter to hide/show smaller corrections/crashes: 96: 6 trades, 100% profit, 5954% profit, detected crashes: 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010 90: 8 trades, 100% profit, 5347% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011 74: 9 trades, 100% profit, 4964% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015 41: 10 trades, 100% profit, 4886% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015 How to use this Strategy ? Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters), then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals on the S&P500. More trades don't necessarily generate more overall profit. It is important to detect only the major crashes and avoid closing trades on the smaller corrections. Bearing the smaller corrections generates a higher profit. Watch out for the volatility alerts generated at the bottom (red). Threshold can by changed by the Volatility Warning Threshold parameter (default 200 = 2% ATR). In almost all crashes/corrections there is an alert ahead of the crash. Although the signal doesn't predict the exact timing of the crash/correction, it is a clear warning signal that bearish times are ahead! The current correction in march 2018 is not yet a major crash but there was already a red volatility warning alert. If the volatility alert repeats the next weeks/months, chances are higher that a bigger crash or correction is near. As can be seen in the graphic, the deeper the crash is, the higher and wider the red volatility signal goes. So keep an eye on the red flag! To use this strategy for future trades, set the end date past today and set the Sell On End Date value to false Information about the parameters: see below
SP:SPX
by XPl0RR
3
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy Bitcoin(BTCUSD) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below). Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade. My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength. My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions: the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength. The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value. ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values. The script shows a lot of graphical information: One green area represents one trade The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade. the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed) the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue How to use this strategy? Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR). Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters) Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock. Do the same for other stocks. Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades! Here are the parameters: Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20) Example for Bitcoin(BITFINEX:BTCUSD) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing): Fast EMA Buy=2 Slow SMA Buy=18 Minimum Buy Strength=36 Fast EMA Sell=8 Slow SMA Sell=22 Minimum Sell Strength=52 Trailing Stop (#ATR)=3 Result: 3.47 times better than Buy&Hold strategy NetProfit: 20770% #Trades: 25 %Profitable: 60% Buy&HoldProfit: 5977%
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by XPl0RR
5
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy on KBC(KBC) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below). Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade. My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength. My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions: the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength. The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value. ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values. The script shows a lot of graphical information: One green area represents one trade The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade. the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed) the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue How to use this strategy? Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR). Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters) Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock. Do the same for other stocks. Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades! Here are the parameters: Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20) Example for KBC(KBC) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing): Fast EMA Buy=12 Slow SMA Buy=55 Minimum Buy Strength=56 Fast EMA Sell=12 Slow SMA Sell=55 Minimum Sell Strength=95 Trailing Stop (#ATR)=3 Result: 22.7 times better than Buy&Hold strategy NetProfit: 590% #Trades: 19 %Profitable: 63% Buy&HoldProfit: 26%
EURONEXT:KBC
by XPl0RR
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy on AB-Inbev(ABI) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below). Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade. My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength. My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions: the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength. The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value. ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values. The script shows a lot of graphical information: One green area represents one trade The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade. the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed) the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue How to use this strategy? Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR). Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters) Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock. Do the same for other stocks. Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades! Here are the parameters: Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20) Example for AB-Inbev (ABI) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing): Fast EMA Buy=9 Slow SMA Buy=30 Minimum Buy Strength=40 Fast EMA Sell=16 Slow SMA Sell=63 Minimum Sell Strength=40 Trailing Stop (#ATR)=8 Result: 2.27 times better than Buy&Hold strategy NetProfit: 1002% #Trades: 11 %Profitable: 63% Buy&HoldProfit: 440%
EURONEXT:ABI
by XPl0RR
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy Galapagos(GLPG) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below). Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade. My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength. My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions: the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength. The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value. ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values. The script shows a lot of graphical information: One green area represents one trade The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade. the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed) the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue How to use this strategy? Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR). Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters) Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock. Do the same for other stocks. Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades! Here are the parameters: Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20) Example for Galapagos (GLPG) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing): Fast EMA Buy=12 Slow SMA Buy=39 Minimum Buy Strength=40 Fast EMA Sell=12 Slow SMA Sell=45 Minimum Sell Strength=95 Trailing Stop (#ATR)=3 Result: 3.15 times better than Buy&Hold strategy NetProfit: 2370% #Trades: 21 %Profitable: 71% Buy&HoldProfit: 752%
EURONEXT:GLPG
by XPl0RR
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy on Apple(AAPL) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below). Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade. My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength. My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions: the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength. The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value. ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values. The script shows a lot of graphical information: One green area represents one trade The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade. the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed) the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue How to use this strategy? Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR). Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters) Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock. Do the same for other stocks. Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades! Here are the parameters: Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20) Example for Apple (AAPL) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing): Fast EMA Buy=12 Slow SMA Buy=45 Minimum Buy Strength=40 Fast EMA Sell=19 Slow SMA Sell=45 Minimum Sell Strength=106 Trailing Stop (#ATR)=8 Result: 2.3 times better than Buy&Hold strategy NetProfit: 6900% #Trades: 7 %Profitable: 71% Buy&HoldProfit: 2938%
NASDAQ:AAPL
by XPl0RR
1
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy on Barco(BAR) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below). Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade. My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength. My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions: the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength. The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value. ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values. The script shows a lot of graphical information: One green area represents one trade The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade. the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed) the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue How to use this strategy? Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR). Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters) Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock. Do the same for other stocks. Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades! Here are the parameters: Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20) Example for Barco (BAR) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing): Fast EMA Buy=16 Slow SMA Buy=80 Minimum Buy Strength=44 Fast EMA Sell=12 Slow SMA Sell=45 Minimum Sell Strength=82 Trailing Stop (#ATR)=9 Result: 7 times better than Buy&Hold strategy NetProfit: 386% #Trades: 7 %Profitable: 71% Buy&HoldProfit: 55%
EURONEXT:BAR
by XPl0RR
What is the job of a trend-following trader?The chart is not going to tell anyone whether to go long or short. I cut deeper than that. This post is about what I see as the job of a trader, who wants to be consistently profitable over a long time using trend following strategies. The following therefore excludes systems that tend to have fixed targets, such as harmonic trading and exploiting levels of support and resistance. Trend-followers usually do not have fixed targets as they do not know how far a trend would go before changing. My job as a trend-following trader is to do the following: Estimate probability of direction of future price movement based on a sound system of analysis. Engage losses but make them controlled and reasonable within a sound methodology. Exploit probability of price movement in a favoured direction by trailing the trend. Have realistic expectations of gain in any single trade relative to the Average True Range (or other suitably reliable measure of volatility). For trading situations where the Average True Range is high, stop-losses need to be acceptable and broad. Sometimes 2 x Average True Range is used as a rule of thumb. However, human judgement has to prevail. On occasions some instruments have a pattern of spiking deeply down or up, and recovering. For those a stop-loss of 3 x Average True Range may be better to avoid being stopped out. If 3 x Average True Range or even 2 x Average True Range is unacceptable as a loss I do not enter the trade. Too often new traders are spiked out and left behind. Average True Range varies by time frame and naturally so does visual appreciation of volatility. Make volatility your friend - and treat her with respect. Develop ' nerves of steel '.
Education
by Captain_Walker
Stop Management using trend linesFirst I determine the gradient most important in the currency. I then look for parallels to this. I will enter when I get two touches on the line . I wait for the close price, to make sure that price does not spike down through the sloping line. (No Entry) Depending upon market activity I adjust my stop when price moves up to the next parallel. The closer the stop the more likely you are to get stopped out. Before I entered the trade above I must decide a number of things Is it better to hold BTC or another currency? Should I choose EOS or BCD? Note BCD outperformed EOS by a large margin Does it have a pattern that I can use to trade? Is my risk to reward greater than 5.? Will the entry happen when I am not at my computer? Can I actively manage the trade or will I be unavailable for a few hours? You can see why I exited this trade. The price is stair- stepping down along these ascending parallels. If is gains clear support I would once again consider an entry When traders have lost money in a currency, they often try to regain money in that currency. They then wait and wait for price to go back up. Then they say that there is a great team behind the currency and they are doing a big deal in two weeks that will change everything. Then they become a HODLer . They have changed the original intent of their purchase. On the other hand if you bought (with the PLAN of holding) ETH December 7 then in under 40 days you have 3.5X your value in USD I think that it is usually better to take a break for a few days. Then enter a different currency.
by a1Keith
Adobe Trend Reversal or Buy Opportunity? Adobe (ADBE) exploded upwards on Friday, March 16th after reporting their earnings. At the same time, a huge reversal bar formed on the daily chart with the close at $126.94.  The following trading day’s bar closed just below the low confirming a possible reversal of a pretty massive uptrend the stock has been under over the last months. Not to mention, Adobe and Microsoft (MSFT) have announced a joint venture in customer engagement and marketing, as well as an Adobe announcements of new cloud services.  The cloud services could become a new commercial source of revenue, especially with Adobe’s niche in the creative marketplace as opposed to cloud service providers like Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS. But is it time to go short and sell? Well, for now, yes, or with less capital risk, fade the reversal.  Fundamentals for the company are strong, with growth showing in the long term. But our strategy is a swing strategy to take advantage of lower risk opportunities.  This trade with a stop loss above the high of the reversal bar at $130.30 is definitely not the lowest risk of them all, but a credit spread might suffice before a high potential for bullish continuation in the long run. If you’re an options player like myself or a straight underlying trader, then here’s a few sets of trades depending on your investment style. 1)      Short the stock Entry: any price today Stop: $130.31 on market close Trail it after two more days of closing bars until breakeven. If the trend has started in the downward direction, trail it to our middle moving average and follow it until the bulls take over 2)      Credit Spread Sell X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 130 Strike Buy X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 135 Strike Max Profit: ~13% Return on Risk/Investment 3)      Stay on the sidelines, and wait for a buy signal fractal for medium/longer term trade Buy X Amount of Calls, 20 Oct 17 Exp, 115 Strike Again, from a technical standpoint, we currently rate Adobe (ADBE) a Sell in the short term, but the bullish uptrend has a high likelihood of continuing in the medium to longer term due to the fundamental outlook and growth opportunities for the company. Until our next article.
NASDAQ:ADBE
by EdgeAnalytics
We Think $SIRI Has Some Sirius PotentialHonestly, I didn't even know Sirius XM was a publicly traded company until 6 months ago. Mainly because it's under $5, and I generally tend to avoid such stocks after getting burned in the penny stock world so many years ago. But SIRI is an interesting ticker, and one we recently acquired quite a sum of shares in for the long run, and by long run, I mean retirement. We bought for multiple reasons, none of which revolve around Warren Buffet's company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A/B) increased stake in the company; although that can be a nice boost. First, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $.01/share (.04/share/year). Granted, this is not a lucrative dividend amount by a long-shot, but it is one indicator of a fundamental shift in the company's long-term outlook to their business success. In essence, I like to see a company project confidence in their model by thereby rewarding their shareholders, even if it's a little. Oh, and that doesn't mean it won't grow in the future either. Second it's maintained a nice technical uptrend, so we're at least going to ride it for a bit of the long haul.  We've had two entries hit since the stock really started running. Third, we don't like to speculate on the future of a company's capabilities or markets, but due to our knowledge of satellites, I find it interesting that SIRI is named as a potential contender in the "Connected Car". The possibilities of Sirius's S-band downlink being used as a secondary or tertiary backup link, or a data stream to the cars' ability to predict traffic and best routes possibly could be a market entry when the self-driving car technology gains a foothold. This would allow for contractual growth and a steadily grown curve of revenue. For just a minute though, let's get a little crazier and speculate a little bit. Another interesting concept is Sirius' versatility and the company's placement's potential for scale. In reality, Sirius is a Satellite communications provider; it's just a one-way transmission to your car radio. But here's food for thought: satellite phone communications. At the moment, most sat phones are not even worth the average consumer buying due to the high cost of operation ($6/minute) and the infeasibility of carrying a brief case that holds the equipment. But when we looked at SIRI, we look at how other companies might be looking to scale, and how SIRI might do the same. We personally think that there's only so many cell towers one can build, and they only provide coverage in a certain area. Furthermore, the current satellite phone providers such as Iridium, Globalstar, and INMARSAT have a huge cost, and rightly so due to the amount of satellites they've put in orbit to maintain their service provision. But I think Sirius is a well-known consumer brand. Seriously. Ask any person on the street what it is and they'll likely tell you it's a satellite radio. Now tell that same person that Sirius is providing phone services to their iPhone/Android/Pixel. They probably wouldn't be very surprised would they? But how would SIRI do it? Possibly through a joint venture with a company like Google or Android since Apple is a competitor in the online music streaming business. If Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) were to come in, design a proprietary receiver/transmitter into the phone it'd be a win-win for both companies. Also, SIRI would be that service provider undercutting the competition SATCOM providers as well as terrestrial providers like Verizon (NYSE:VZ), T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) and AT&T (NYSE:T). Thus, Sirius would have then successfully expanded and would gain an insurmountable competitive advantage. The transmission architecture could possibly be supported both through uplink communications to a leased COMSAT (cheaper than building a new one) or through the joint venture to build an entire new constellation. Not to mention, Sirius already has a terrestrial repeater network for their radio services (much like cell towers), and this could have a
NASDAQ:SIRILong
by EdgeAnalytics
MSFT Cutting Credit Spread Losses ShortThe name of the game in trading is knowing when to cut your losses short.  Goldman Sachs upgraded MSFT in premarket trading today, which caused a gap up in the opening price.  We're in the red about $105 from an originally $252 max credit trade.  We're going to wait for market close before cutting our losses on the position. If the close looks to be as if it's going to be above our moving averages (highly likely), we're going to take the loss. If not, we'll hold the position through Monday to determine whether to continue playing the game and even potentially open another credit spread on the Bull Put side for some time premium
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by EdgeAnalytics
Bitcoin: A Longterm OutlookIt might take a couple years before another rally. The next 4 months I expect price failing at the red trend line and coming back down to 220-300 depending on how strong demand is there and therefore if it's worth for whales to try running the stops bellow 230. The 800-900 target is derived from meassuring the distance at the widest place within the triangle, and projecting that same distance (150%) from the (expected) breakout point upwards.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MagnusTradingGroup
20
2 TARGETS EXPLAINED - POSITION SIZING - BANKING PROFITS Hi All, I recently have been asked to publish this diagram for executing a 2 target order. I have labeled the diagram with order sequence in a perfect world scenario. Steps below relate to numbers on chart I am not telling you this is how everyone does it and this is only based on the questions I have been asked, every strategy has its own order entries stops and targets. 1. Price action comes down to hit your Limit Order Entry/Entries - when we find the reason for entry in this case we have identified this as an advanced pattern. When price action has at least past the B leg and we anticipate that price will continue downwards towards our D completion and predict where the Market is most likely to go after this, we then decide on our entry type and execute the order - The most important thing is to know where your entry stops and targets go before the entry level is reached. We mark these area's out and place 2 Order Entries @ Half position size. So let's say you would like to buy 20k EURUSD and the spread was 2.3 pips with a pip cost of $1 per 10k (minilot) trade. The cost would be: 2.3 pips * $1 per minilot * 2 minilots = $4.60 Now let's say you bought 20k in EURUSD, but this time, you bought two separate minilots, 10k and 10k. The cost for this would be Position #1 - 2.3 pips * $1 per minilot * 1 minilot = $2.30 Position #2 - 2.3 pips * $1 per minilot * 1 minilot = $2.30 The 2nd scenario costs the same as the 1st but allows two different sets of stops and limits (one set per ticket). So now we have the Order in Place with your target 1 and 2 and only exposing you to a stop loss of your original 20k After D has completed you need to make sure to bring your targets down until D has completed. 2. Now you have your order filled, based on historical data and forward testing results in the most likely of places price will retrace to being the 38.2% for T1 and 61.8% for T2 - now in your testing results you may just take one position and use the 50.0% for your one target. Keep in mind this is just an example. We have already banked our target 1 with 43pips - Price can do 3 things Go up Sideways or down. We hope price would just continue to hit our T2 - in this case price will retrace when sellers have their orders in at the 38.2% 3. We then move our stops up for position 2 to break even. 4. Price action usually will retrace and can indeed come back down to stop you out for a break even trade on position 2 but this has already banked 43 pips at 10k Half Position. 5. Price action doesn't stop us out and we are looking for Target 2 to be acquired, when T2 is obtained we have completed a perfect trade. And target 2 has banked 69 pips You can also trail a stop when the price action hits T1 if you need to sleep or leave for some reason and don't want to leave the position exposed to loss if it turns in the wrong direction. You can take step number 4 after the retrace and use the LLLC candle wick and trail the stop 5 pips below or above the HHHC candle wick depending on bearish or bullish. Note: some brokers or platforms do have the feature to have two limits on the one order. Also note the dollar figure is great that's what we all want is to make money in the market, the most important thing though is to not go broke, protect capital, dont expose yourself to too much risk, bank profits and don't be greedy. Being a consistently profitable trader putting yourself in the highest probable trades, Like Warren Buffett Says The stock market is a device of transferring money from the impatient to the patient. Their are a million ways to make and lose money in Forex - good luck I hope this helps for all those who asked to post it
Education
by Oztrade
2