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BTC - Update on Suspected Flash Crash ScenarioFor those of you who have been following my ideas, and I don’t think that would be many - understandably so, because these ideas seem so outrageous and out of the norm - I feel obligated to provide updated numbers per my own personal trade ideas. I expect BTC to flash crash. In summary, here is why: 1. DXY is breaking down and retesting a major bearish trendline on the monthly. This alongside geopolitical events and sentiment, I expect the dollar to fall rapidly and store of value assets such as BTC to see a multi year bull run. 2. The market has been steadily bringing BTC up since late 2022. This leaves a trail of long position stop losses below the price, leaving a massive chain reaction of sell orders ready to set off one into the next. In other words, the orders required to make the drop are already in the chart. 3. It’s a question of when - BTC is under 3 intersecting bearish trendlines, and we can see how price breaks above and below these support / resistance levels historically. Eventually they will hold and play out, estimating when is tricky - that’s why I use DXY to predict it. It’s difficult to pinpoint where the upper resistance is - but a pretty solid pick is around 105,200. I’ve used various numbers in the past for this idea, but it’s always refining and evolving based on what I see price doing. I’m proposing two movements for a massive liquidation sweep of the lows prior to a 3-5 year bull run where BTC sees those quarter million dollar prices. Scenario 1: 105,200 to 35,000 35,000 retrace to 77,000 ( although this doesn’t have to happen, I just anticipate a 3 wave corrective move) 77,000 to 10,000 (could be as low as 7,000) 7,000 and upwards of 200,000 (after all liquidity is absorbed and reclaimed) Scenario 2: 105,200 straight down (for the most part) to 17,000 to 20,000 17-20,000 and upwards to 200,000 plus Personally I feel scenario one is most likely. I’ve been trading this market since 2017 and the newfound “ stability “ of Bitcoin during the last 2 years cannot be trusted. This upwards move IS NOT a bull run. It’s a BEARISH RETEST. Bearish retests typically move straight up, exactly as what’s been happening - following by a drop roughly 10 times as fast. Same ideas on the larger time frames as smaller time frames. WHEN DO I EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN? Starting any minute and spanning over the next several days to week. Anyway - that’s my update for those of you who are interested. Understand this stuff gets laughed at - but I experienced the same treatment when I told my group to long BTC at 16,500 in Jan 2023 to a target of 90,000. It’s not new to me and I expect it. Doing my best to help advise and open your minds to alternative ideas.
Short
by DickDandy
7
BTC - Be mindful of resistance around 109,800 to 110,000Per my second last post about this red trendline - be mindful that there is a resistance located 109,800 to 110,000 zone. Although Bitcoin can break above, that doesn’t mean the resistance is invalid. Price will weave above and below until it sticks and plays out. Personally I watch these levels for sudden fast movement and confirmation that it’s holding as resistance. If you see a fast drop initiate from these levels, be mindful that this could be indicative of intention to hit the lows around 20,000. For more information see my previous posts. Happy trading
Short
by DickDandy
2
BTC Under Major Resistance HereBitcoin has shown strength towards playing out these ideas, as unrealistic as it may seem. The interactions at specific levels have shown these trendlines to be valid. I see two scenarios if BTC holds below its resistance at 104,550 to 105,000 104,600 to 35,000 35,000 retrace to 75,000 75,000 to 7,000 Alternatively: 104,600 to 20,000 Up from 20,000 While these seem like macro projections, per my previous posts and explanations - it’s possible to see this occur in a very small period of time. IE flash crash, stop hunt, etc. Happy trading.
Short
by DickDandy
1
BTC - Another Potential Bearish PatternHere I present my second alternative for a Bearish case for Bitcoin. Per my previous posts I explain in detail the interest in recollecting liquidity in these lower zones. Previously I presented pathways to the uber lows at 7,000-10,000 - however this is another possible case. I believe Bitcoin can see a drop from 109,200 straight down to 19,000-20,000 Why? 1. Major Volume support at this level 2. Major liquidity pools in confluence with this level 3. Price would form a W bottom with a higher low - which aligns with DXY breaking down on the monthly time frame. We can use DXY to project a bull market spanning 2-5 years (weakening dollar = more interest in deflationary assets such as Bitcoin) 4. Per the note above, it’s unlikely that BTC continues straight up without a sharp drop. The way this market works is to a large degree with leverage trading. The market and exchanges desperately want to shake out these longs, especially if we consider a 2-5 year bullish forecast through a macro view. 5. Confluence with this diagonal trendline which shows a clear support / resistance structure (note the Bitcoin chart is formed via diagonal ascending support and resistance lines - we can demonstrate this clearly and repeatable by duplicating the correct trendline and seeing how it forms the chart at any location) Personally, I am shorting Bitcoin from 109,000 - and am expecting to see a fast drop through the rest of the weekend. I will watch what the price does, where it reacts and interacts, and attempt to get a head start on understanding the true bottom before this “true” bull cycle begins. Happy trading
Short
by DickDandy
30
BTC - Bullish Madness or Bearish Retest?Zooming out on BTC chart we can note this major bearish trendline on the HTF. This diagonal support / resistance line can take BTC to 7,000. Likely? Maybe not. Possible? Absolutely. A straight move up on BTC like we have seen the last two years is very dangerous. There is a large chain reaction of leveraged sell orders via long position stop losses cascading down the price levels. Can this trigger a massive and fast flash crash? In my view - absolutely. Here are two potential moves that take price to those low liquidations levels. Possibility 1 110,000 to 35,000 35,000 retrace to 81,000 81,000 to 7,000 Possibility 2 110,000 to 43,000 43,000 retrace to 72,000 72,000 to 7,000 Note that both of these possibilities end with 7,000. I’m mapping out two routes that take us there, using confluences with trendlines, volume profiles, liquidity mapping, and common sense. Always remember that crypto is a very new market, with some unique mechanics that differentiate it from other more established markets. Predominantly the futures and high leverage usage and the ways these platforms make their money… Beware and be prepared.
Short
by DickDandy
5
Understanding Liquidity: Where Big Players Hunt Stops Understanding Liquidity: Where Big Players Hunt Stops Ever wondered why price suddenly spikes through your stop-loss and reverses moments later? That’s not a coincidence—it’s liquidity at play. This article will teach you how liquidity zones work, why stop hunts happen, and how to avoid getting trapped like the crowd. 🔵 What Is Liquidity in Trading? Liquidity refers to how easily an asset can be bought or sold without drastically affecting its price. But in practical trading, liquidity is more than just volume—it’s where traders *place* their money. Large players—institutions, market makers, or big accounts—need liquidity to fill orders. They target areas where many retail stop-losses or pending orders are stacked. These areas are often just above resistance or below support—classic stop-loss zones. To move large positions without slippage, smart money uses stop hunts to trigger retail orders and create the liquidity they need. 🔵 Where Do Liquidity Zones Form? Liquidity often builds up in predictable areas: Above resistance: Where shorts place stop-losses. Below support: Where longs place stop-losses. Swing highs/lows: Obvious turning points everyone sees. Round numbers: e.g., 1000, 10,000, 50,000. Breakout zones: Where breakout traders place entries or stops. These zones act like magnets. When price approaches them, it accelerates—seeking the liquidity pool behind the level. 🔵 What Is a Stop Hunt? A stop hunt happens when price moves just far enough to trigger stop-losses before reversing. This isn’t market noise—it’s an intentional move by big players to: Trigger a flood of stop orders (buy or sell). Fill their own large positions using that liquidity. Reverse price back to fair value or the prior trend. Example: Price breaks above resistance → stops get hit → institutions sell into that liquidity → price drops sharply. 🔵 Signs You’re in a Liquidity Grab Look for these clues: Fast spike beyond key levels followed by rejection. Wick-heavy candles near highs/lows. Price touches a level, then sharply reverses. High volume on failed breakouts or fakeouts. These are signs of a liquidity event—not a real breakout. 🔵 How to Trade Around Liquidity Zones You can use liquidity traps to your advantage instead of becoming their victim. Avoid obvious stops: Don’t place stops directly below support or above resistance. Instead, use ATR-based or structure-based stops. Wait for confirmation: Don’t chase breakouts. Let price break, reject, then re-enter inside the range. Watch for wick rejections: If price quickly returns after a level is breached, it's often a trap. Use higher timeframe confluence: Liquidity grabs are more powerful when they align with HTF reversals or zones. 🔵 Real Example: Liquidity Sweep Before Reversal In this chart, we see a textbook liquidity grab: Price breaks below support. Longs get stopped out. Candle prints a long wick. Market reverses into an uptrend. This is where smart traders enter— after the trap is set, not during. 🔵 Final Thoughts Liquidity is the invisible hand of the market. Stop hunts aren’t personal—they’re structural. Big players simply go where the orders are. As retail traders, the best thing we can do is: Understand where traps are set. Avoid being part of the crowd. Trade the reaction, not the initial breakout. By thinking like the smart money, you can stop getting hunted—and start hunting for better trades.
Education
by BigBeluga
37
BTC - “Bull Market” OR Bearish Retest on HTF? Bitcoins excessive rise for the previous two years brings concern for the mechanics of this market. Moving only up for so long leaves much liquidity in the form of long position stop losses below the current price. These stop loss orders, or leveraged sell orders, are an explosive chain reaction ready to set off. Observe these two trendlines and copy them to your charts. These two bearish trendlines (in my view) are why bitcoin has truly been rising so freely. Moves up in the form of bearish retests are fast and fluid, only after the rejection does price fall aggressively. I anticipate two scenarios here in the realm of bearish ideas: Possibility 1 - 30% Probability 96,700 to 34,500 34,500 retrace to 68,500 68,500 to 7,000 Possibility 2 - 70% Probability 96,700 to 43,000 43,000 retrace to 60,000 60,000 to 7,000 Note that both of these possibilities end with 7,000. I’m mapping out two routes that take us there, using confluences with trendlines, volume profiles, liquidity mapping, and common sense. Be mindful of this possibility. And protect yourself accordingly.
Short
by DickDandy
Bitcoin - Back Under Intersecting Bearish TrendlinesBitcoin is back underneath these two intersecting bearish trendlines. I have laid out two potential paths Bitcoin could take to play this out. When an asset in crypto goes only up for so long, it leaves behind a trail of leveraged liquidity in the form of stop losses. These wide open gaps filled with long stop losses, is the fuel that would make such a move possible. In other words, the sell orders are already in the chart in order to make this possible. Personally, I expect this to happen. DXY is showing a major breakdown and bearish retest at the moment - with a falling dollar over the next 2-3 years, that translates to a true bull market for Bitcoin and related assets. The market has a very small time window to recollect all of the long position liquidity in the chart, which is in the billions. See my previous posts to see confluences, liquidity mapping, etc. Happy trading and I will be trading this myself.
Short
by DickDandy
BTC FOMC FLASH CRASH / LIQUIDATION IDEAThe FOMC data this week could be a conduit that sticks the price to play down these two trend lines. We can see the mass liquidity on the chart in these low zones. Bitcoins consistent rise since late 2022 has been leaving a train of long stop loss orders (leveraged sell orders) underneath - think of the mechanics of “why it’s possible” as a massive chain reaction of stop losses getting fired off and creating mania and hysteria for further fear based selling. If we see drops to these low zones, I’m presenting the TA evidence of it so that we know it’s not the bottom - but a liquidation move. The worst thing people could do is sell at massive losses thinking BTC is going to zero. I see this move occurring and following that over the next years, a BTC pushing upwards of those $140-$200k zones. The market is interested in reclaiming this liquidity - we are awaiting the conduit or event to justify it. This is my personal trading plan. Happy trading to all and be safe out there.
Short
by DickDandy
BTC - Mapping out a Liquidity SweepIt’s of my opinion that Bitcoin has a lot of interest in recollecting this long position liquidity. Per my previous posts we have some trendlines to support these zones being hit. Likely? Who am I to have an opinion on that. The facts are that there is a mass amount of liquidity here and technical analysis patterns that support price reaching those zones. The way this chart works is the multiple bottom locations of the first liquidity sweep wave correspond to a retrace location above in the same colour. Ultimately I believe there is an interest in sweeping those ultra lows at 7-10k, albeit very briefly. We know it will be fast and brief because: 1) Long stop losses are in the chart (leveraged sell orders) 2) Shorts will be opened on the way down creating leveraged buy orders to take price quickly back up 3) People will panic sell to make the drop even faster and respectively panic buy to make the return to upper zones even faster. God speed and keep and open mind
Short
by DickDandy
2
WHAT IS QM (SIMPLY)Quasimodo trading setup or QM is an advanced reversal pattern in which its formation signals the end of a trend, and most traders use its variants to improve trading results in the forex market. If u don't understand it, there is high possibility for stop hunting. u may heard HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern, yes? QM is exactly HAD (head and shoulder) and u can trade it at: FL'S _ S&D ZONES and SR lines. it is also a Great show for money back and u can short it at all. What invalidates it? only Do not ENG the first support.
COINBASE:SHIBUSDEducation
by abdollah1386
BITCOIN BULL & BEAR SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKIn this scenario, we retest $58k and move lower to reach the low at $54.6k. These price moves should be watched closely as they can become volatile with falling stock prices and economic data. Today the JOLTS job openings will be released which could cause volatility. If the economic data turns out to be bad for the dollar in the next few days, the upside scenario could continue and we would re-enter the area where we are trading sideways.
by reports20netrust
TRADERS BEWARE! -- Possible stop huntI have already entered a short last week at the peak of the daily tf retracement, but here is an idea if some traders have missed out on an entry. As you can see price bounced off the upper bounds of the daily tf channel with an RSI divergence. A cup and handle pattern appeared and there was a massive bearish engulfing candle that broke out of the CnH pattern. It is possible that aggressive traders have entered shorts immediately once it broke down and placed their stops above the handle. Those retail trades are easy money for institutions and hedge funds to gobble up by pushing price past that red liquidity zone before entering their own short positions. Once that happens, I will hop on the bandwagon. What do you think about this idea?
Short
by gunhy
BTC - Analyzing Order Blocks to Predict Liquidations / Stop HuntHello all, I’d like to provide a visual representation of a method we can use to understand and predict stop hunts / liquidation moves on bitcoin - these mysterious and hard to capture phenomenon we all experience at seemingly random times. Here I show blocks of orders - which I separate if we have a candle retracement overlapping the block. We can see this mass chain of red order blocks on my chart. What these are - are long position stop losses. To understand the significance of these orders let’s break down the mechanics of these orders. Long stop losses are: 1) Limit sell orders 2) Orders that don’t automatically fill if price is above the sell price (unlike limit sells) 3) Leveraged orders - using traders liquidity with a leveraged multiplier to increase position size When dealing with “leveraged” order sizes - we can also leverage / multiply the speed, power, and velocity of chart movement as these orders are filled. If we can assume an average leverage usage of 20x - We can speculate a price movement of 20x speed, power, and velocity. With this information - we can look at bitcoin on the large time frames - in this case the multi-day. Identifying chart patterns, we can estimate the timing of movements by dividing the suspected speed of these moves by approximately 20. This allows us to speculate these very fast moves on bitcoin, which are essentially as simple as this description: What are stop hunts and liquidations? 1) The result of retail traders stop loss orders being triggered and creating automatic chain reactions of order fulfillment 2) Order blocks being filled and triggered at multiplied speed and power 3) Not forced manipulation - but a natural occurrence of the consequence of a futures dominated market and large order gaps left intact on the chart Looking back at bitcoin we can see this phenomenon happen time and time again. 1) Consolidation / long steady movements accumulating stop loss orders 2) A fast and large candle in the opposite direction as these stop loss orders are triggered and executed Additionally we can understand the benefits of these pheonomons to the exchanges and market makers. Liquidations return your entire trading position to these for profit companies - so there is a clearly defined benefit to executing these moves to the platforms we trade on. Further more - creating automatic movements that generate high speed and velocity triggers an error known as slippage - price moves so fast that it doesn’t allow adequate time for the stop loss order to execute before the liquidation of a leveraged trade is triggered first - resulting in liquidation with a stop loss in place. HOPE THATS HELPFUL AND GOD BLESS
Short
by DickDandy