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BTC - Another Potential Bearish PatternHere I present my second alternative for a Bearish case for Bitcoin. Per my previous posts I explain in detail the interest in recollecting liquidity in these lower zones. Previously I presented pathways to the uber lows at 7,000-10,000 - however this is another possible case. I believe Bitcoin can see a drop from 109,200 straight down to 19,000-20,000 Why? 1. Major Volume support at this level 2. Major liquidity pools in confluence with this level 3. Price would form a W bottom with a higher low - which aligns with DXY breaking down on the monthly time frame. We can use DXY to project a bull market spanning 2-5 years (weakening dollar = more interest in deflationary assets such as Bitcoin) 4. Per the note above, it’s unlikely that BTC continues straight up without a sharp drop. The way this market works is to a large degree with leverage trading. The market and exchanges desperately want to shake out these longs, especially if we consider a 2-5 year bullish forecast through a macro view. 5. Confluence with this diagonal trendline which shows a clear support / resistance structure (note the Bitcoin chart is formed via diagonal ascending support and resistance lines - we can demonstrate this clearly and repeatable by duplicating the correct trendline and seeing how it forms the chart at any location) Personally, I am shorting Bitcoin from 109,000 - and am expecting to see a fast drop through the rest of the weekend. I will watch what the price does, where it reacts and interacts, and attempt to get a head start on understanding the true bottom before this “true” bull cycle begins. Happy trading
Short
by DickDandy
30
BTC - Bullish Madness or Bearish Retest?Zooming out on BTC chart we can note this major bearish trendline on the HTF. This diagonal support / resistance line can take BTC to 7,000. Likely? Maybe not. Possible? Absolutely. A straight move up on BTC like we have seen the last two years is very dangerous. There is a large chain reaction of leveraged sell orders via long position stop losses cascading down the price levels. Can this trigger a massive and fast flash crash? In my view - absolutely. Here are two potential moves that take price to those low liquidations levels. Possibility 1 110,000 to 35,000 35,000 retrace to 81,000 81,000 to 7,000 Possibility 2 110,000 to 43,000 43,000 retrace to 72,000 72,000 to 7,000 Note that both of these possibilities end with 7,000. I’m mapping out two routes that take us there, using confluences with trendlines, volume profiles, liquidity mapping, and common sense. Always remember that crypto is a very new market, with some unique mechanics that differentiate it from other more established markets. Predominantly the futures and high leverage usage and the ways these platforms make their money… Beware and be prepared.
Short
by DickDandy
5
Understanding Liquidity: Where Big Players Hunt Stops Understanding Liquidity: Where Big Players Hunt Stops Ever wondered why price suddenly spikes through your stop-loss and reverses moments later? That’s not a coincidence—it’s liquidity at play. This article will teach you how liquidity zones work, why stop hunts happen, and how to avoid getting trapped like the crowd. 🔵 What Is Liquidity in Trading? Liquidity refers to how easily an asset can be bought or sold without drastically affecting its price. But in practical trading, liquidity is more than just volume—it’s where traders *place* their money. Large players—institutions, market makers, or big accounts—need liquidity to fill orders. They target areas where many retail stop-losses or pending orders are stacked. These areas are often just above resistance or below support—classic stop-loss zones. To move large positions without slippage, smart money uses stop hunts to trigger retail orders and create the liquidity they need. 🔵 Where Do Liquidity Zones Form? Liquidity often builds up in predictable areas: Above resistance: Where shorts place stop-losses. Below support: Where longs place stop-losses. Swing highs/lows: Obvious turning points everyone sees. Round numbers: e.g., 1000, 10,000, 50,000. Breakout zones: Where breakout traders place entries or stops. These zones act like magnets. When price approaches them, it accelerates—seeking the liquidity pool behind the level. 🔵 What Is a Stop Hunt? A stop hunt happens when price moves just far enough to trigger stop-losses before reversing. This isn’t market noise—it’s an intentional move by big players to: Trigger a flood of stop orders (buy or sell). Fill their own large positions using that liquidity. Reverse price back to fair value or the prior trend. Example: Price breaks above resistance → stops get hit → institutions sell into that liquidity → price drops sharply. 🔵 Signs You’re in a Liquidity Grab Look for these clues: Fast spike beyond key levels followed by rejection. Wick-heavy candles near highs/lows. Price touches a level, then sharply reverses. High volume on failed breakouts or fakeouts. These are signs of a liquidity event—not a real breakout. 🔵 How to Trade Around Liquidity Zones You can use liquidity traps to your advantage instead of becoming their victim. Avoid obvious stops: Don’t place stops directly below support or above resistance. Instead, use ATR-based or structure-based stops. Wait for confirmation: Don’t chase breakouts. Let price break, reject, then re-enter inside the range. Watch for wick rejections: If price quickly returns after a level is breached, it's often a trap. Use higher timeframe confluence: Liquidity grabs are more powerful when they align with HTF reversals or zones. 🔵 Real Example: Liquidity Sweep Before Reversal In this chart, we see a textbook liquidity grab: Price breaks below support. Longs get stopped out. Candle prints a long wick. Market reverses into an uptrend. This is where smart traders enter— after the trap is set, not during. 🔵 Final Thoughts Liquidity is the invisible hand of the market. Stop hunts aren’t personal—they’re structural. Big players simply go where the orders are. As retail traders, the best thing we can do is: Understand where traps are set. Avoid being part of the crowd. Trade the reaction, not the initial breakout. By thinking like the smart money, you can stop getting hunted—and start hunting for better trades.
Education
by BigBeluga
35
BTC - “Bull Market” OR Bearish Retest on HTF? Bitcoins excessive rise for the previous two years brings concern for the mechanics of this market. Moving only up for so long leaves much liquidity in the form of long position stop losses below the current price. These stop loss orders, or leveraged sell orders, are an explosive chain reaction ready to set off. Observe these two trendlines and copy them to your charts. These two bearish trendlines (in my view) are why bitcoin has truly been rising so freely. Moves up in the form of bearish retests are fast and fluid, only after the rejection does price fall aggressively. I anticipate two scenarios here in the realm of bearish ideas: Possibility 1 - 30% Probability 96,700 to 34,500 34,500 retrace to 68,500 68,500 to 7,000 Possibility 2 - 70% Probability 96,700 to 43,000 43,000 retrace to 60,000 60,000 to 7,000 Note that both of these possibilities end with 7,000. I’m mapping out two routes that take us there, using confluences with trendlines, volume profiles, liquidity mapping, and common sense. Be mindful of this possibility. And protect yourself accordingly.
Short
by DickDandy
Bitcoin - Back Under Intersecting Bearish TrendlinesBitcoin is back underneath these two intersecting bearish trendlines. I have laid out two potential paths Bitcoin could take to play this out. When an asset in crypto goes only up for so long, it leaves behind a trail of leveraged liquidity in the form of stop losses. These wide open gaps filled with long stop losses, is the fuel that would make such a move possible. In other words, the sell orders are already in the chart in order to make this possible. Personally, I expect this to happen. DXY is showing a major breakdown and bearish retest at the moment - with a falling dollar over the next 2-3 years, that translates to a true bull market for Bitcoin and related assets. The market has a very small time window to recollect all of the long position liquidity in the chart, which is in the billions. See my previous posts to see confluences, liquidity mapping, etc. Happy trading and I will be trading this myself.
Short
by DickDandy
BTC FOMC FLASH CRASH / LIQUIDATION IDEAThe FOMC data this week could be a conduit that sticks the price to play down these two trend lines. We can see the mass liquidity on the chart in these low zones. Bitcoins consistent rise since late 2022 has been leaving a train of long stop loss orders (leveraged sell orders) underneath - think of the mechanics of “why it’s possible” as a massive chain reaction of stop losses getting fired off and creating mania and hysteria for further fear based selling. If we see drops to these low zones, I’m presenting the TA evidence of it so that we know it’s not the bottom - but a liquidation move. The worst thing people could do is sell at massive losses thinking BTC is going to zero. I see this move occurring and following that over the next years, a BTC pushing upwards of those $140-$200k zones. The market is interested in reclaiming this liquidity - we are awaiting the conduit or event to justify it. This is my personal trading plan. Happy trading to all and be safe out there.
Short
by DickDandy
BTC - Mapping out a Liquidity SweepIt’s of my opinion that Bitcoin has a lot of interest in recollecting this long position liquidity. Per my previous posts we have some trendlines to support these zones being hit. Likely? Who am I to have an opinion on that. The facts are that there is a mass amount of liquidity here and technical analysis patterns that support price reaching those zones. The way this chart works is the multiple bottom locations of the first liquidity sweep wave correspond to a retrace location above in the same colour. Ultimately I believe there is an interest in sweeping those ultra lows at 7-10k, albeit very briefly. We know it will be fast and brief because: 1) Long stop losses are in the chart (leveraged sell orders) 2) Shorts will be opened on the way down creating leveraged buy orders to take price quickly back up 3) People will panic sell to make the drop even faster and respectively panic buy to make the return to upper zones even faster. God speed and keep and open mind
Short
by DickDandy
2
WHAT IS QM (SIMPLY)Quasimodo trading setup or QM is an advanced reversal pattern in which its formation signals the end of a trend, and most traders use its variants to improve trading results in the forex market. If u don't understand it, there is high possibility for stop hunting. u may heard HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern, yes? QM is exactly HAD (head and shoulder) and u can trade it at: FL'S _ S&D ZONES and SR lines. it is also a Great show for money back and u can short it at all. What invalidates it? only Do not ENG the first support.
COINBASE:SHIBUSDEducation
by abdollah1386
BITCOIN BULL & BEAR SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKIn this scenario, we retest $58k and move lower to reach the low at $54.6k. These price moves should be watched closely as they can become volatile with falling stock prices and economic data. Today the JOLTS job openings will be released which could cause volatility. If the economic data turns out to be bad for the dollar in the next few days, the upside scenario could continue and we would re-enter the area where we are trading sideways.
by reports20netrust
TRADERS BEWARE! -- Possible stop huntI have already entered a short last week at the peak of the daily tf retracement, but here is an idea if some traders have missed out on an entry. As you can see price bounced off the upper bounds of the daily tf channel with an RSI divergence. A cup and handle pattern appeared and there was a massive bearish engulfing candle that broke out of the CnH pattern. It is possible that aggressive traders have entered shorts immediately once it broke down and placed their stops above the handle. Those retail trades are easy money for institutions and hedge funds to gobble up by pushing price past that red liquidity zone before entering their own short positions. Once that happens, I will hop on the bandwagon. What do you think about this idea?
Short
by gunhy
BTC - Analyzing Order Blocks to Predict Liquidations / Stop HuntHello all, I’d like to provide a visual representation of a method we can use to understand and predict stop hunts / liquidation moves on bitcoin - these mysterious and hard to capture phenomenon we all experience at seemingly random times. Here I show blocks of orders - which I separate if we have a candle retracement overlapping the block. We can see this mass chain of red order blocks on my chart. What these are - are long position stop losses. To understand the significance of these orders let’s break down the mechanics of these orders. Long stop losses are: 1) Limit sell orders 2) Orders that don’t automatically fill if price is above the sell price (unlike limit sells) 3) Leveraged orders - using traders liquidity with a leveraged multiplier to increase position size When dealing with “leveraged” order sizes - we can also leverage / multiply the speed, power, and velocity of chart movement as these orders are filled. If we can assume an average leverage usage of 20x - We can speculate a price movement of 20x speed, power, and velocity. With this information - we can look at bitcoin on the large time frames - in this case the multi-day. Identifying chart patterns, we can estimate the timing of movements by dividing the suspected speed of these moves by approximately 20. This allows us to speculate these very fast moves on bitcoin, which are essentially as simple as this description: What are stop hunts and liquidations? 1) The result of retail traders stop loss orders being triggered and creating automatic chain reactions of order fulfillment 2) Order blocks being filled and triggered at multiplied speed and power 3) Not forced manipulation - but a natural occurrence of the consequence of a futures dominated market and large order gaps left intact on the chart Looking back at bitcoin we can see this phenomenon happen time and time again. 1) Consolidation / long steady movements accumulating stop loss orders 2) A fast and large candle in the opposite direction as these stop loss orders are triggered and executed Additionally we can understand the benefits of these pheonomons to the exchanges and market makers. Liquidations return your entire trading position to these for profit companies - so there is a clearly defined benefit to executing these moves to the platforms we trade on. Further more - creating automatic movements that generate high speed and velocity triggers an error known as slippage - price moves so fast that it doesn’t allow adequate time for the stop loss order to execute before the liquidation of a leveraged trade is triggered first - resulting in liquidation with a stop loss in place. HOPE THATS HELPFUL AND GOD BLESS
Short
by DickDandy
XAU Weekly - BearishThis Week we Say OANDA:XAUUSD was Super Bullish, But is It? gold has Engineered Liquidity up and Down, I believe its going up to Hit Retail Stop loss and then Revert to go Down . I have noted Levels that I am interested in Chart Another Confirmation : If you Check #Gold Seasonality, Normally OANDA:XAUUSD is Bearish in October and November ! Disclaimer : this is Just Technical Analysis, You Should never use this information for real Trading, Do your own Research. Sincerely, Sobhan JTN
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sobhanjtn
7
Stop Hunting: How Not to Fall into a TrapIn the world of trading, knowledge is power, and being aware of the strategies employed by market manipulators can be the key to safeguarding your capital. One such manipulative practice is stop hunting, which targets stop-loss orders in an attempt to drive prices in a particular direction. In this article, we will delve into the concept of stop hunting, explore how it works, and detail the strategies you can employ to protect yourself from becoming a victim of this practice. What Is a Stop-Loss Raid/Stop Hunt? Stop-loss hunting, sometimes written as SL hunting or termed a stop-loss raid, is a manipulative practice used by some market participants to intentionally trigger stop-loss orders and drive prices up or down. The goal of stop hunting is to force other traders to sell or buy, creating a domino effect that drives prices even higher or lower. Large institutional investors, like hedge funds, investment banks, who possess the necessary resources, often employ this strategy. Stop raiding can wreak havoc on both traders and investors, potentially leading to substantial losses and undermining market efficiency. To protect your trading capital, it's crucial to recognise this tactic and adopt measures to avoid stop hunting. Stop Hunting and Stop-Loss Orders Stop hunting takes advantage of stop-loss orders. To prevent losses, traders and investors often place these orders with a broker, instructing them to buy or sell an asset when it hits a predetermined price. In other words, traders use stops to limit losses by automatically closing their position once the price of an asset reaches a certain level. Stop-loss orders provide traders and investors with the convenience of limiting losses without constantly monitoring the market. However, this benefit comes with a caveat: vulnerability to stop raiding. Cunning market manipulators use a variety of techniques to trigger these orders, which can result in frustration for unsuspecting traders and investors. To fully comprehend how stop-loss orders can be exploited to manipulate the market, it's vital to understand how they function. As mentioned, when a trader places a stop order, they essentially direct their broker to execute a trade once the security's price reaches a specific level. For instance, if a trader acquires a stock at $50 and sets a stop-loss order at $45, the broker will automatically sell the stock if its price dips to $45 or below. Stop-loss orders serve as a valuable tool for traders and investors, allowing them to cap their losses. However, market manipulators may also use them to drive markets up or down. A large institutional investor, for example, might place a hefty sell order at a level where numerous stop-loss orders lie. This action could trigger those orders, inciting a flurry of selling that drives the asset’s price even lower. Consequently, the institutional investor can purchase the security at a lower price, potentially generating substantial profits. Identifying Signs of Stop-Loss Hunt Recognising stop hunting is tricky, as it typically occurs behind the scenes. However, there are some signs to watch out for that may indicate that a stop-loss raid is taking place. The most obvious sign is a long wick that reaches above nearby highs/lows before the candle closes back in its current range. Market manipulators know that stop-loss orders rest beyond these highs/lows, especially if there are equal highs/lows or a “strong” support/resistance level exists, so these wicks may indicate that stop-losses are being triggered. These wicks most often look like the hammer or shooting star candlestick patterns. It's also worth noting that stop hunting may be more prevalent during times of high market volatility or low liquidity, as these conditions make it easier for manipulators to move the market. Be extra vigilant during such periods to protect your trades from potential stop hunting tactics. In terms of your own trading, if you continually notice that your stop is triggered before the price takes off without you, then you may be a victim of stop raiding. If that’s the case, then it’s a good move to consider how tight you’re placing your stop-losses, and employ one of the strategies below to mitigate the chance of your stop being hit. Stop-Loss Strategies to Avoid Stop Hunting While it is important to be aware of the potential risks of stop hunting, there are steps you can take to avoid being targeted by this practice. One of the most effective ways to protect yourself from stop hunting is to use stop-loss orders strategically. Here are some strategies you can use to avoid stop hunting: Strategy 1: Identifying Areas of Stop-Loss Orders One way to avoid being targeted by stop hunting is to identify areas where there are likely to be a large number of stop-loss orders. You can do this by analysing charts and identifying key support and resistance levels and trendlines. When prices approach these levels, there is often a cluster of these orders placed just below or above these areas. By identifying these areas, you can avoid placing your stop-loss orders at these key zones. Instead, you can pinpoint levels that aren’t likely to be breached, which may reduce the risk of your orders being targeted by stop raiding. Generally speaking, setting stops above/below areas that caused an impulsive move is a decent place to start. Strategy 2: Avoid Round Numbers for Stop Losses Another strategy to avoid stop hunting is to refrain from placing your stop-loss orders at round number prices. For example, if the current price of a stock is $50, you may be tempted to put your stop-loss order at $49 or $51. However, market manipulators may target these levels in order to trigger a wave of selling or buying. Most of the time, it doesn’t make sense to place stop-loss orders at arbitrary prices. Choose your stops based on technical factors and the probability of the level being reached. You could even choose a fixed percentage as long as you confirm the validity of the stop-loss with technical analysis. Strategy 3: Use ATR to Measure the Stop-Loss Level The average true range (ATR) is a technical indicator that can be used to measure the volatility of a security. As the name suggests, ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range of a security over a specific period of time. Statistically speaking, an asset is unlikely to deviate from its ATR. By using ATR, you can set your stop-loss orders at a level that considers the security's volatility. This may help you avoid setting your stops too close to the current price, which could make them susceptible to raiding. For example, if the current price of an asset is $50 and the ATR is $2, you may want to set your stop-loss order at $48. This would give the price enough room to fluctuate without triggering your order. You’ll find the ATR indicator and dozens of other tools waiting for you in the free TickTrader platform. Takeaway In summary, stop hunting is a manipulative practice employed by some market participants, such as large institutional investors, to intentionally trigger stop-loss orders and influence market prices. There are even theories that brokers assist these participants in identifying clusters of stop-losses and engage in stop hunting themselves. However, Electronic Communication Network (ECN) brokers directly connect traders with liquidity providers and remove any conflict of interest. FXOpen is a Trusted ECN broker with your best interests at heart. If you are ready to start trading, why not open an FXOpen account? You’ll be able to enjoy low-cost trading, ultra-fast execution speeds, and the confidence that you’re partnering with Traders Union’s Most Innovative Broker of 2022. Happy trading! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
4