Stop Hunting DayToday is stop hunting day. Smart money and market makers who have to pay profits later will be hunting for your stops. This is rightaway a positive signal for the long awaited UJ Seasonality drop.
Previous years we would see similar activity and I posted an idea on this back then. That occurence itself was also a repeated pattern and it can take up to 24 hours.
This time I expect it to last at least until the NFP later today, also with the aid of USD bullish sentiment building up towards the NFP. Worst case scenario it lasts until Tuesday or even keeps going on for another couple of weeks. All depending on GBP strength and news around Brexit.
Good article on Stop Hunting on Investopedia: www.investopedia.com
" Although it may have negative connotations to some readers, stop hunting is a legitimate form of trading. It is nothing more than the art of flushing the losing players out of the market ."
Stophunt
Called it! Last time weekly candles this big? Nov 7th 2016...The night of Donald Trump being elected, Alan Greenspan slipped out of the watch party to buy massive amounts of stocks and made Billions over-night.
These candles are bigger than that night and resemble those of the 2009 rebound from the recession.
If you are short, I feel bad for you son, cuz there are jobs jobs jobs, and the train ain't done!
Check my link below for the Stop hunt we called back in December. Haven't changed the graph since then. Wonder why the media is silent now? hmmm.... they know the game, and you're the prey.
You're Welcome,
-racethehair
Judas Swing $XBT The Judas swing term was named by ICT, he dubbed this swing concept and utilizes it upon the London Open. The idea is, the market makers will rally or sell price, normally just above or below the Asian session high or low (depending on institutional order flow bias) tricking buyers or sellers into the market to follow its direction. As the Judas swing high or low is formed, price is quickly reversed either taking out stops and or leaving traders out of the game. Judas swings can be seen on high and low time frames, though if you are an intra day trader, once higher time frame objective levels are in place and you have your directional bias in tow, you will be looking for the Judas swing to occur on a 15 minute chart time frame. You can also see the Judas swing develop on a 1 hour chart, though the 15 minute chart will show its intension a bit more clearly, when you know what you are looking for.
Bitcoin Judas SwingThe Judas swing term was named by ICT, he dubbed this swing concept and utilizes it upon the London Open. The idea is, the market makers will rally or sell price, normally just above or below the Asian session high or low (depending on institutional order flow bias) tricking buyers or sellers into the market to follow its direction. As the Judas swing high or low is formed, price is quickly reversed either taking out stops and or leaving traders out of the game. Judas swings can be seen on high and low time frames, though if you are an intra day trader, once higher time frame objective levels are in place and you have your directional bias in tow, you will be looking for the Judas swing to occur on a 15 minute chart time frame. You can also see the Judas swing develop on a 1 hour chart, though the 15 minute chart will show its intension a bit more clearly, when you know what you are looking for.
EURUSD Tactical long setupNext week should see some nice and juicy price action.
We have a 1H breaker nested perfectly around the .705 fib level and a 1H orderblock resting right above the last top which should be acting as a magnet once we get that retracement. Just look at all those stops there, wouldn't you wanna eat them?
All of this makes for a nice 3.6 R/R Long setup if you're patient enough.
Neutral to Long - STOP HUNT overlay in OrangeHello,
To add a little positive thought into the gloomy picture being created by the Mr Whaley the Market Maker I've overlayed a typical manipulation of a Stop Hunt (Novice Alert). In FOREX these occur by the minute, by the day but also by the month and year to Stop Out all the different traders - The house always wins. Now there are a number of large players in the market ($10m+) there is a high chance that they are applying what they know at a market level (as there is little to no pressure from the hype to impact their strategy) and so for illustration purposes I've overlayed a typical pattern to see how it matches up...
Scarily accurate isn't it..
Look, I've lifted this trend overlay from Market Trader's Daily who specialise in this stuff - this is not my guesstimate on what might happen, merely and idea of what has happened in other markets. Most experienced traders will know about this stuff and a few traders are talking about this but for any (remaining ;) newbies like me it is worth going to do some research on it.
The last time I looked at this pattern the market shifted and dropped deeper but did come back up so I'm cautious on this and consider giant stops hunts as just another indicator on planning for the bottom - Hence my Neutral position. However, once all the shorts are done I hope to see the breaking of the down trend.
Note that on my chart I've accidentally estimated the green area slightly too deep and time frames are probably too long but these are merely estimates. In this scenario, Mr Whaley will break through the line, eat his fill and go hit the shorts, then come back for a few more stops before heading up.
Novice trying to catch a whale, Expecting short term upswing - Neutral to Bearish longer term until August mark.
Stop Hunt signal December 30, 2017December 30 a typical stop hunt similar to earlier documented events is detected. Again at the end of the week and just before a drop is expected. The start of this event was easy to recognise because of the change of price action acceleration, speed and momentum.
View the highlighted time range with 1 minute precision to best see the embedded whipsaw patterns that are meant to let the trader believe a drop is coming and start submitting orders. At the moment is writing a finish of the pattern was not yet confirmed. The next move could be a continuation of the pattern or a drop to next support at 112.
The number of signals that identify this area as a stop hunt is complete enough to be confirmed;
> Multiple whipsaw patterns
> Starts just above support at 112.5
> Climbs 20 pips
> Very slow price action
> Harmonic price action before the start
> Long wait at end of pattern before the trend continues
Possible USDJPY stophunt coming upEarlier I posted my report on what looks like as stophunt exercise.
At Dec 21, 8am UTC I noticed the first serious drop of USDJPY starting from 113.6, what could be a similar drop signal as we signalled on Nov 30 and Dec 8 UTC. And because the timing and expectation of traders is about the same I am a bit weary that this might be another stophunt exercise. So be aware and be ready for a 24 hour stop loss hunt.
Silver - Itching to Break Out from the Downtrend ChannelSilver had a stop hunt run right at the head of the inv H&S , this usually means that the market makers needs fuel to move the market, coupled with 11 days of accumulation above the pivot level, I think its time to pay attention.
If you decide to take this trade please wait for the daily candle to close above trendline or for retest of Trend Line / Pivot point
Trying to predict the smart money's next move UP - EURGBPWe can already see that the pair has already completed 2 distribution phases and we are now anticipating the 3rd and final phase. After a strong move up we can expect some consolidation where bulls will be seeking to lock in some profits driving the price somewhat lower (RSI oversold on 4H + 1H + 15M) during the Asian session. We can then expect smart money's techniques to come into play as always where they will attempt to stop out any sellers selling at a potential break downwards of the previous broken structure, before buying back up and reach a potential 100-115 pip target.
My 20 cents, I'm not a prophet just trying to look beyond just technical analysis. After all it's the smart money, the big institutions, that move and manipulate the markets in whichever way they want.
GBPCHF Short OpportunityBearish Flag to retest support turned resistance levels.
Notice that volume is decreasing as price rallies higher.
Also, you can see that there was a stop hunt as indicated by the yellow oval to shake out retail traders.
1 to 1 target sits nicely within our 4H chart profit taking levels.
See my 4H chart analysis to see where we are on a bigger picture.
Stop Loss hunting and the whipsaw effect explained Regularly we see price break out after a consolidation, only to suddenly reverse and break out to the other side. Then, we continue swiftly in the direction of the initial breakout creating a "whipsaw" effect. Why is that ?
In simple words, it is the smart money that attracts retail traders by pushing in one direction (mainly breakout traders) and put their stop in the obvious location. Once there is enough volume, they will push the price to where they want to make their move.
I'm giving here an example on the chart with explanation of the actions, I hope it helps you understand these sudden moves. I'm not saying that GBPUSD will move this way, it is not a trade prediction, rather giving you an insight of how stop loss hunting usually takes place.
If you'd have any questions, let me know. If you like this explanation, give it a thumbs up !
Thanks and trade safe !
SHORT USDCADFundamentally OIL inventories had a big drop and Trump didnt drop the Nafta trade agreements with Canada. Both bullish fundamentals. Technically there has been a stoprun/liquidity run and I am looking to short on the 30min at the 50% retrace. Big untested order block on the 4H at the 78fib which will create a perfect bullish cypher
EURUSD is Still in a Huge Sell ProgrammDuring the long term consolidation phase I was wondering what the market will do next. It was clear and simple that it will target the 1.6000 level. And then? Maybe a retracement?
My idea is shown on the daily chart so everything should be clear in front of your eyes:
1. In the orange shadowed box there where the buy stop orders.
2. The gap confirmed the running for these buy stops. It had to be a fast upmove and suprised most traders reaching the level of 1.0900 so quickly.
3. The grey box shows the consolidation phase which took 5 days in a very small range of about 50-70 pips. Only for accumulating orders from willing buyers to slaughter them.
Also you can see that the last bearish candles have a big range. And this confirms that the market is running southwards. Faster then Usain Bolt!
My guess is that the 2. Take Profit Area should be reached in the end of June.
I hope that I have explained my idea in a manner so everybody can understand it.
If you have any questions please feel free to ask.
Any comments or likes are very welcome.
Good luck to you and I wish you a lot of pips!