STOP STOP HUNTING!!!THIS IS THE DEFINITION OF A STOP HUNT!
we've all seen how the dollar has exploded over the past couple of days but NZD is not giving up without a fight you can see that every time the kiwi goes below .695 on the weekly candle it rushes back up before the week is over.
now fundamentally speaking, WE KNOW the RBNZ (New Zealand Central Bank) will be raising rates next month from the current .25%. & WE KNOW THE SMART THING TO DO IS TO PUT OUR MONEY INA STRONG CURRENCY WITH HIGH INTEREST RATES, ESPECIALLY AGAINST LOW ONES JPY( -.10%) CHF(-.75%), & USD (.25),which happens to be all the "SAFE HAVEN" currencies
i cannot be the only one looking ahead and seeing the true potential of the KIWI.
nzdusd must go to .7315 (400+ PIPS)
nzdchf must go to .662 (250+ PIPS)
nzdjpy MUST GO TO 83.9 (800+ PIPS)
Stophunting
Keep Alert CPI reported Lower INTENTIONALLYThis is a risk caused by benefit conflict.
Why gov reports CPI lower than prediction?
(1) hide the fact of inflation
(2) higher CPI => investors ask higher interest rate of bonds => gov pays more interest on debts
(3) higher interest rate of bonds => not good for non-growing stocks => companies collect less money from stock markets but need to release more bonds.
I have bought USD. Should I cut loss?
(1) I guess it is stop hunting. If stop hunting is executed, I consider buy more.
What we can do?
(1) I encourage people expose more evidences show CPI is actually higher than gov claims.
(2) Inflation is different from devaluation of debts. If consumer price becomes cheaper, we have more money to return debts, so cheaperer consumer price can also approaches devaluation of debts.
USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart Update #3 (3 Mar 2021)Summary of technical analysis on the USD/JPY:
- Fib(0) changed to 106.957 high of 10:00 candle
- Stophunting session to grab the selling liquidity
- Temporary long ('short squeeze') & then short
- Swing is overextended to the upside
- RSI pullback to probe above the 70
- Extremely low volume for a new high
SHORT BTC to $36,600 Part 2Part 2 of why I am shorting BTC to at least $36,600 . The last run up to 38,900 was a Hunt to get shorters liquidated. Basically a stop hunt and now it's over and there no more volume and no interest in pushing above the 38,500 to 38,900 range. If we get a close with high green volume above $38,700 then I may be interested and will certainly watch to see what kind of volume comes in if we do but I think that is about 10-15% chance of that happening. I feel very Bearish and can see a profit taking zone where they only slightly pump to that zone to take profit and sell all the BTC that Black Rock in particular bought up during the pump from $32,300 to $36,000. Blessings everyone and Trade safe!
EURUSD BUY EUR/USD trades within familiar levels around 1.2240, ahead of Wall Street’s opening. The pair has limited bullish scope in the near-term, stuck below the year’s high,
“German GFK Consumer Confidence Survey was printed at -7.3 in January, better than the -9.5 forecast. Meanwhile, the US has published the final version of the third quarter Gross Domestic Product, upwardly revised to 33.4% YoY.”
“The EUR/USD pair needs to advance beyond 1.2275 to gain bullish momentum, while dips towards 1.2129, the weekly low, will likely attract buying interest.”
The Early Stop-Hunter catches the WormThis is a textbook pre-London setup.
During the Asian session we often see (especially in Yen pairs) moves that set up for the London session. What this does is provides us with liquidity of retail trader stops that we can take advantage of.
This was a simple 0.7 R trade that I was in and out of within 45 minutes.
It amazes me that traders still put their stops above/below swing points and prior structure, you're basically asking me to come and hunt you down!
Also, side note the reason the R is 0.7 is because my strike rate on this strategy is s high, so I don't need to use the absolute poor excuse of *I use a minumum 1:3 Risk to Reward because I can lose 40% of my trades and still be profitable* - IF your strategy gives you a 40% strike rate, it clearly doesn't work!
Rant over!
Good morning anyway guys, go smash the day!
market makers foot stepsHey guys,
lets take a look at the GBP USD pair, we can clearly see the liquidity hunt and instant pull back under 1.26170, making that our selling price. first retest happened almost instantly with immediate rejection, the second retest is currently on going and we are expecting a downward move to the next liquidity target.
PREDICTING THE MARKET BEFORE IT HAPPENSAs we can see here, there is an enticing level of so called resistance on the daily and the 4 hourly chart. Price has moved away from this area and novice traders have gone short. It is very easy to predict where stop losses will be. Notice the decreasing volume as price shorts away from the "resistance". If the collective amount of people doing the same thing moved the market, the move and volume would be much more drastic. Only big institutions and news moves markets. I expect people who shorted to soon be taken out and a manipulation occur, however with all the Brexit news around the GBP I'm being cautious.
LIVE STOP HUNTINGThis could potentially turn into a stop hunt. As we see price created the illusion it was bouncing off support (see the blue arrow), and has now returned and broken below. 95% of retail traders are told to buy at support and sell at resistance.Guess where they are also told to place their stops? Right at the dollar sign. Liquidity the banks need to fill their enormous order. The cycle repeats and 95% of traders continue to fail.
Stop hunts - The retail traders worst enemy.STOP LOSING TO THE SHARKS
Why do 95% of traders fail? Because you learn from the masses, then you lose with the masses. You are being fooled by the banks & institutions.
The very core of technical trading revolves around support & resistance. You are taught to sell if price breaks support and buy if price breaks resistance, but you aren't taught to win - you are taught to lose.
The big cats in the market want you to follow these procedures so that they can manipulate the market to their benefit. When price breaks support, all the retail traders start closing out their buys - (stop losses hit) - and entering sells to follow the 'newly formed trend.' But after a 10-50 pip drop beneath support, price sharply reverses and shifts back to the upside with strong momentum, once again wiping out retail traders - and providing market makers with the best possible prices for optimal trades.
So stop trading like a retail trader, start thinking like a shark. Until then, you WILL lose.
BTCUSD did you get shaken out?What an exciting week with BTC
We witnessed a struggle at the 10k mark momentarily, followed by a surge in price action upwards after barely tasting sub-10k levels.
For those 'stop-hunted' at 10k, im sorry...
Marching on...
We see a nice reversal on the MA Ribbon to the uptrend at the breakout zone of the large descending wedge structure, retesting 12k levels.
DO NOTE THAT we are still printing lower highs, and lower lows on the hourly charts. However, the larger time scales still maintain the uptrend, so fret not.
A critical level to look out for is the 12.4k mark - if we do break above this levels, the uptrend is likely resumed in full swing, but until then, don't be surprised to experience some pullbacks.
BTCUSD - Food for thought from The New Guy on the block.Bitcoin and other Cryptos have not been an interest of mine until recently. However, sticking to the market technical's of smart money traders, I have seen some interesting price action in BTC of late and have actually entered a trade (for he second time ever in my 10 years trading) in the beast that is Bitcoin.
This chart will undoubtedly look foreign to most and the idea and principles behind it obscure. However, there is a reason for that.... its not retail level investing.
First and foremost, BTC looks to be in the eyes of the people again recently which, to me, means only one thing! Bad news. When everyone starts getting on board, that's when smart money are existing the market. For me, BTC looks ready to head lower again. I am not calling it at $1 however lower is in my view.
We look at the H4 chart for The Beast and can see a lovely run on stops. By this I mean we have a high posted and oh, what follows, another high. Thus creating the "run on stops" which, were artificially engineered in the first place by the first high forming. Admittedly it is early to be in the trade from a low risk perspective as the ideal scenario for the entry would be once we have seen the low broken (see image) and then a trade higher to collect more of the all important liquidity from all the "Breakout" gamblers, I mean traders, with stops within the range of the accumulated orders.
My second entry will be looking for shorts again from the area highlighted as the "order collection block" with a view of Target 1 being down at around the 8000 mark.
For all you Crypto try hards, a measly $1000 dollar move probably doesn't excite you too much. But it will put fuel in the Lambo for a few weeks! ;)
Happy to hear feedback and comments from all.