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Education: Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)ICEUS:KC1! I learned a handy tool used to manage risk under certain circumstances - the Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR) In this example, I actually fade the 3DTSR, but being able to execute different styles of trading strategies reflects an understanding of them, while acknowledging that no system or strategy used in markets will be perfect. Three Day Trailing Stop Rule: There is one initial criteria for the 3DTSR to become active - Either Upon Pattern Breakout - to limit initial risk/add to position at lower relative risk OR Upon Reaching 70% of Target from Breakout as a Trailing Stop In an Uptrend, to exit a position using the 3DTSR Day 1 is the High Day, defined by a new price high - at this point, we are not aware of the setup Day 2 is the Setup Day, defined by a closing price (end of day) that is below the low of Day 1 - at this point, the trigger is active Day 3 is the Trigger Day, as the stop is placed below the low of Day 2 The 3DTSR can also be used as an entry strategy, as shown in the chart here. Day 1 = High Day Day 2 = Setup Day, where price closed below the low of Day 1 Instead of placing a stop below the low of day 2, here I fade the 3DTSR by ADDING to a long coffee position, and jamming the stop to below the low of Day 2 Day 3 = The low of Day 2, or the trigger, is never penetrated, and price opens a cent higher If using the Trigger as a stop, or below the low of Day 2, and using the Triangle shown to imply a measured target, this is a whopping 20 to 1 trade setup. Do you have any profitable trading systems or strategies?
ICEUS:KC1!Education
by jBTCkingaling
3
HOPEFULLY BULLS WILL STRIKE IN AND HIT MY TARGET.The first question i always ask myself is "who is in control of price?" that way i can analyze my trrading from a price action point of view. So, who is in control of price on this one? First we have a bearish trend followed by a tiny pull back and then an indecision candle which tells us that the bearish power might transitioning to the bulls. Of course i might be wrong, but that is why i keep my Risk/Reward a 2:1 minimum, that way i only have to be right 40% of the time in order to be profitable. "Trading is not about being right most of the time, its about being profitable" - Anonymous Trading Details: Time Frame: 8hr Entry: Above the high of the indecision candle Stop loss: A few pips below the Indecision Candle Risk/Reward: 2:1 Account Risk: 2%
Long
by daldertg
MONEY: IN SMALL TRENDSIn my own methodology I've shown in other charts that, it doesn't matter which time frame you make your money. I even showed a 3 min trend on one occasion. All this true is trend-following - which is different to following a moving average of some sort. The ATR line reacts differently to price fluctuations. The important thing is to minimise losses. This chart is a 15 min time frame. It's of little value now because the start of the trend is where you want to be. But for the future I'm showing where the entry point is. Similar strategies can be used on other time frames. 1. See the trend breaking down and fighting to stay afloat. 2. See the double top on the 15 min time frame. 3. See price collapse. 4. See the rebound to 0.5% fib. Experience is required with all this. In this scenario the stop-loss could have been just above 0.618. That was an unlikely rebound in this particular scenario because price was struggling already. (In other scenarios where price isn't struggling as much I've seen retracements to 0.76 and above). Please note carefully: true trend following is a higher risk strategy but also an exceptionally higher reward strategy. It loses far more often than other strategies. But numbers of losses mean little. Why? It's the aggregate of the minority of big gains well outweighing minimised greater numbers of small losses. It certainly isn't for 'everybody'. In he captioned scenario, nobody knows how far that 15 min trend will go. NOBODY! For trend-followers in this scenario, the exit would be the amber line. In other words, the market shows the entry point and the exit point. That's very scary. See same strategy on the lowly 3 min time frame below Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?Hello everyone: Today I want to discuss a topic in Risk Management, specifically on when and how to move your STOP LOSS to BREAKEVEN or in PROFIT when you have a running profit trade/position. In an impulsive phase of the market, we want to make sure to protect our entry as well as secure profits. In this example of EURUSD, I managed to get 2 entries in, and manage it to my best ability and secure profits Trade close down for +7.9% profit Original Trade Forecast and Analysis: This is a topic that will have various answers across traders, as this is certainly up to each individual trader’s strategy, style, and management approach. So understand there is no right or wrong, “holy grail” kind of decision. It's up to you individually as a trader. I will share my management, and why I choose to go with these types of approaches, and you can certainly use them to your advantage to tweak/modify them to fit your strategy. Few things to keep in minds are: 1. Moving the SL to BE or/and in profit is a way to protect your entry, as well as secure profit. 2. Sometimes moving the SL too early may “choke” the price, and you can get stopped out for BE or small profit. Then watch the price take off in your desired direction, which can create negative emotion. 3. Whereas sometimes if you don't move SL to BE or in profit, you can watch a trade that hits 3:1 RR or more, end up reversing down, passing your entry point and to your actual SL of -1%, which can also create negative emotion. 4. No perfect scenario or management when it comes to the aspect of trading, as every trade is unique, and different outcomes may happen, since the market itself is not perfect, and can do whatever it wants to do. Now, I will explain my own management when it comes to moving SL to BE or/and in profit. Certainly this is NOT the only way, nor it will be the best way, but over the years of backtesting & chartwork have given me reassurance on these types of management ways. I will then show some real live examples on the trades that I closed down, and how I manage them as well. CADJPY - Original Trade Forecast and Analysis: GBPJPY - Original Trade Forecast and Analysis: CHFJPY - Original Trade Forecast and Analysis: NASDAQ - AUDNZD - Original Trade Forecast and Analysis: First, a general rule of thumb for me. IF the price has hit about 1:1 RR or so, and has broken past the previous recent lows, I will move my SL to BE. There is no exception in this rule. Again, I explained earlier that sometimes this will help you to protect your entry when price reverses, and sometimes it will choke the price. In this case, I would rather take a BE first, and re-look for entry again in the same position, as long as the bias and the price action is still valid on both the higher time frame and lower time frame. Second, once the entry is in some profit, say 2:1 or higher, I generally will move the SL up to about +0.5% profit or so. Just want to secure a little profit while not choking the price entirely. Third, once the entry is in 3:1 profit, then I will move my SL to +1% profit. This is where I generally will decide whether I should take full profit here, or hold the trade for a mid-long term if the higher time frame has given me the bias. Fourth, since the trade has already been in 3:1 profit or higher, generally we can expect a continuation correction to form now after the impulse phase. If it's a smaller correction and price isn't reversing up sharply right away, I will move my SL to about +1.5% profit, set my alert above the continuation correction and observe the development of the correction. This is generally a point where I can decide to hold the trade longer, or if it reverses up from the continuation correction, then exit the trade for profit. Fifth, if we start to see a possible reversal development, then I will move down my SL to the recent swing highs/lows, or just above the reversal correctional structure, and will let the trade tag me out for profit if it reverses. Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :) If you enjoy these contents, and the educational lessons are helpful, please press like, subscribe and follow for more. Jojo
Education
by jojofang0901
89
BTCUSD Short IdeaMy previous BTC long hit TP1, and as I said I moved SL into Break Even once that happened, so made small profits on that. Now, I'm shorting. We have printed an inverse Cup & Handle pattern, and the technical target for that is my TP2. TP1 (the purple line) is at a support zone. Evidently, fundamental factors going on in China are seeming to impact the overall economy negatively which is also reflecting in the crypto space. I'm expecting a falling crypto market for the near future. Will enter and post more shorts if I encounter any.
Short
by afatuliaj
2
BTCUSDT Long Idea with Take ProfitsI have placed this long on Binance Futures - On the 4hr/Daily timeline, one can draw a downwards channel that Bitcoin has been ranging in for the last 4 weeks. Past week it's been in the upper half, and the 2nd to last 4hour candle had a big bounce off the bottom region to close on the median line. To me, that implied strong bullish momentum, albeit it still closed as a bearish candle. It was followed by a bullish candle, not as powerful as the first, but still with an average amount of volume for the past 20 4hr candles. This could easily turn down and continue further to 37700, hence I only risked 1% instead of my usual 2-3%, but seeing as the fall down from the upper region of the channel down to the middle stemmed from big news and extended by liquidations of futures and other derivatives, I believe that people will be buying up this discounted BTC in the coming couple days. Hence, the long TP 4. TPs 1 and 2 - indicated by the purple lines - stem from my bias towards the upside in the short run. Even if the overall trajectory is down, I feel the short-run (couple days) is upwards. The Adam and Eve pattern on the 15 min is a bullish sign, the neck of which we broke with strong bullish candles. TP 1 and 2 are at basic resistance zones, with TP2 being just below the technical target for the Adam and Eve pattern. TP2 is also just before the 50% retracement of the Fib taken from 19th September (before the massive drop) to the trough from 12 hours ago. Another sign we could reach TP2 in the short run without too many problems from the technical perspective. With TP2 being touched, that would take out a total of 75% of my position; only 25% will be left to ride out to my TP3 and 4, or hit a SL that I will move to break even when price hits TP1, or to TP1 when it hits TP2.
Long
by afatuliaj
The logic of "sell half keep half" (Forex)Both holding & not holding don't make sense. Definitions: - Holding = try to hit "homeruns" every time - Not holding = snatching profits at target (not before, that's just being a huge noob) Assume winners 5 times bigger than losers on average: 5R. And the winrate is of 20%. So that's a PF of 1.25, all good. To keep it simple there is no trailing until target. Risking 0.5% per trade you'll never be down more than 10%. Once at target if you move the stop to 1R (-4), 12% of the time the price will go to 45R. So risk 4 to make 40, or 1 to make 10. With a winrate of 12%. PF = 1.36. But if you do hold and trail well... 12% of 20% is 2.4% of total. 80% will be losers (-1R), 17.6% will be +1R, and only 2.4% will be (huge) winners. In other words: Risking 0.5% per trade, by the time you get that big winner (+22.5%) you will be down 15, 25, maybe 50% on a bad luck streak, or more. 22.5% is just enough to get to breakeven after an 18% drawdown. Compared to just lose 4 times (down to 98%) then win once 2.5% (up to 100.45%) Even after a 10% drawdown (an unlucky >20 losses in a row) get a few 5R's and you quickly get back to zero. Holding just makes little sense, and there is no margin for error. But at the same time it's stupid to ignore these big wins. So here is the solution: Sell half, keep half. (Or any other fraction). Selling half at target allows to smooth the returns. If they are too volatile it just won't work out. And keeping half first with a wide stop then maybe not as much, allows to catch the "big ones". This makes most sense even if "on paper" some will say "oh well you should go for the big ones if the odds are in your favor" lol sorry but it's a bit more complicated than this. More generally with Forex I think that any risk to reward under 1 to 2 is bad as is anything above 1 to 10. Can aim for the moon, but not all the time. The "sell half keep half" concept is the best compromise. Adding to winner at some point is too dangerous, it doesn't work, it's just greed. Adding to winners is another subject entirely and anyway there is nothing as a "just do this". It all must be researched and well thought. With this sell half concept you're securing 2.5 + 1.25 = 3.75 / 5R so that's 75% of the profit. Then risking 25% of profit to catch some of these massive winners is I think the smart move here. Profit is secured, to push this a bit further you might have thought of this already: secure enough profit to breakeven (on 20% winrate secure 4/5 R) and "go double or nothing" on the extra (1R). So it's as if in a way these big winners are "free". Risking 1R with 50% retracement means you're leaving 2R in or 2/5 = 40%. Pretty good. And then the account I showed turns to this: Isn't this the best? Sure you'll "only" be in the huge wins with maybe 1/3 of the normal size but it's how it is. This is not gambling. Really, there is no other choice in my opinion. Sort of go nowhere for a while, then boom get a big winner, account jumps up, then go nowhere for a while, etc. The risk all "double or nothing" is actually stupid even if "on paper" you are risking less than you stand to make. And constantly closing at target is just bad and leaving some profit on the table. This does not apply to stocks (sometimes it does, probably). To be honest with stocks you're better off holding everything and getting these zigzags and all so you always have (balanced out) losses ready to be declared, and the huge winners never ever getting closed.
Education
by MrRenev
17
BTC Ultimate FLAG/TRIANGLE!Money Makers! BTC has had a very strong rejection and is now looking to aim lower to find the next MAJOR support before continuing higher. On the weekly TF shown I've mapped where I think BTC should retest in the upcoming weeks. At this support is where I would consider going LONG. There is another support on the way down, which is around 40k. Let's keep our eyes on these areas and see how the market reacts. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts! Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. Simplicity Wins
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by rnaofs
ETH/BTC triangle and breakout ideaTimeline: sep 1 ETHUSD is pumping from 3400 sep 3 ETHUSD hits 4k and stalls sep 5 BTCUSD picks up the pace while ETHUSD still moves sideways sep 7 BTCUSD and ETHUSD rolls over to the downside and flash crashes to 43k and 3k respectively. sep 8 BTCUSD retests 45k as support and moves sideways until today. ETHUSD retests 3.2k and moves sideways during this period the ETHBTC pair has attempted to exceed 0.08, however due to BTCUSD sudden chase, and the following flash crash, it has corrected into a symmetrical triangle ranging from 0.08 to 0.072 ETHBTC. the resistance and support lines of the symmetrical triangles have been tested multiple time, and a breakout or breakdown could lead to a quick move to either 0.08 or 0.072 respectively. a swing long could be entered if the price hits the lower green line, with a stoploss at the lower red line, while a swing short could be entered if the price hits the upper green line with a stoploss at the upper red line until the price breaks the red lines. after the price breaks the red lines, a breakout long could be made at the upper red line, with stop loss at the upper green line, while a breakout short could be made at the lower red line with stop loss at the lower green line.
by Transparent10Xleveragetrades
BNBUSD UPTREND RALLY#BNBUSD UPTREND ANALYSIS i think if the bulls continue with the buying power, it can grow to the next level and after that it can grow again after consistency of price above the retest level. - My Pivot HL is telling me that there will be another pump very soon. - BNB is by far one of the most bullish altcoin out there! - For expected duration of the trade, probability, stop loss, profit target, entry price and risk to reward ratio ( RRR ) - 5x Parallel channel can act as a support / resistance in the future. - If you want to see more of these ideas, hit "Like" & "Follow"
BINANCE:BNBUSD
by GerradFletcher
5
What the good price to buy 1inch?I used Fibonacci Retracement to find a good buy if the triangle broke up. Hope we will have reaction on price. Good buy is the backrest of 0.5 zone with the daily support 4.4858$ Target is the last peaks 5.8227$ If you like adventure so you can buy now and set SL when candles closed below 3.618$ (This is the strong daily support) Anything that doesn't make sense, please give me a comment. Please motivate me to develop myself and help someone needed. Don't forget click like, it's a hug for me. Thanks you!
Long
by BMynameX
US30 --- ALWAYS USE A STOPLOSS************************************** Market Structure Alignment DOGECOIN M = b W = b D = b H4 = br H1 = br M15 = M5 = M1 = ************************************** BIASES: BB = Bullish BIAS BRB = Bearish BIAS **************************************** CODES: b = Bullish bg = Bullish Range br = Bearish brg = Bearish Range **************************************** Bimb = Buyers IMBalance Simb = Sellers IMBalance **************************************** Boms = Break of Market Structure Bboms = Bullish Break of Market Structure Brboms = Bearish Break of Market Structure **************************************** DZ = DemandZONE SZ =SupplyZONE ************************************ H = High HH = HigherHIGH HL = HigherLOW L = Lower LL = Lowbrow LH = LowerHIGH ************************************* POI = Point Of Interest IMB = Imbalance IC = Institutional Candle MIT = Mitigation ************************************* Black = Monthly Red = Weekly Green = Daily Yellow = H4 SkyBlue = H1 NavyBlue = M15 Pink = M5 Purple = M1 Orange = Alerts ************************************
OANDA:US30USD
by N934rex
How to place stop loss like a Pro TraderStop loss placement is perhaps not the most glamorous of trading topics to discuss, but it is a critically important one. If you do not know how to properly place your stop loss, you will be in for a very, very rough ride as you trade the markets. Essentially, for a trader, everything hinges on proper stop loss placement and risk management. If you understand these two aspects of trading and how to approach them properly, making consistent money in the market will become much, much easier for you. Note : This lesson is based on higher time frame charts and the concepts are not applicable to very low time frames which is a different world of trading and not something I do or recommend so I can’t comment on it. The theory behind placing stop losses like a pro trader The first thing to understand and drill into your head about stop loss placement is that you should NEVER place a stop loss based on some random amount of pips. I know a lot of traders do this because I get emails from traders telling me they use “20 pip stops” or “50 pip stops”, etc. etc. This is NOT proper stop loss placement and it is definitely NOT how professional traders place their stop losses… A stop loss should typically be based on a level in the market. Price should have to breach a level to ‘prove’ your trade wrong. You want to see price invalidate your view by giving you fact-based evidence you are wrong, that evidence comes in the form of the most logical nearby level of support or resistance being breached. You need to take into account the context of the market you are trading and determine what level price would have to break through before your original view doesn’t make technical sense anymore. Let’s take a look at two examples to make this clearer… The first example below shows a random pip amount stop loss placement, the second example shows a stop loss placed within the context of the market and nearby levels. Make note of the end results of both trades… Notice in the chart below the trader placed his stop loss at an arbitrary 50 pip distance from entry. Traders typically do this because they don’t understand how to place stops properly and also because they want to trade a bigger position size. This is wrong. You need a logic / chart-based reason to place a stop loss, not just a random pip distance or a pip distance that will allow you to trade the size you want. Notice this trader would have been stopped out for a loss just before the market shot higher, without them on board… In the next chart, we can see how this trade worked out for the trader who knew how to place stops properly / like a pro and who wasn’t placing his stop arbitrarily or based on greed (to trade a bigger size). Notice the stop loss was placed beyond the key support level and beyond the pin bar low, giving the trade good space to work out but also being placed at a point that would logically invalidate the trade if price moved beyond it…. Let’s briefly go over typical stop loss placement on two price action setups I teach; the pin bar signal and the inside bar signal . You will notice, I used a risk reward ratio of 2 to 1 on each trade, this is my ‘default’ risk reward. In other words, I always start any trade by seeing if a 2 to 1 (or more) risk reward is realistically possible given the market structure and context the pattern formed within. For expanded examples, you can reach out to me for my lesson on how to place stops and targets like a pro . Note: Be aware of the average volatility over the last 7 to 10 days of the market you’re trading. You want your stop at least half of ATR (average true range) if not more or you will get stopped out due to noise. The Average True Range is a tool we can use to see average market volatility over XYZ days. It is a good tool to utilize for stop loss placement when no nearby key levels are present. To learn how to apply and use the ATR tool more in-depth, you can reach out to me for my article on the average true range. The example below shows how to use the ATR for stop loss placement and how it can keep you in a trade despite initial choppy conditions after the pattern… IMPORTANT STOP LOSS PLACEMENT TIPS It’s important to consider reward or target potential before taking any trade. You base the potential target of a trade on the stop loss distance. If the stop has to be too wide in order for the trade to have enough space to potentially work out, and the risk reward potential doesn’t stack up, then it’s usually not the best idea to take the trade. Risk reward and position sizing are intimately related to stop loss placement obviously, and crucial topics in their own right. But, we are focusing here in this lesson just on stops, be aware that stops are paramount and take precedence over targets, in a way, stops are a qualifier for the target and overall risk reward and will effectively help you filter trades you should take and should not. It is important to note that stops should always remain constant and can’t be widened, however targets can be widened, stops should only ever be tightened and moved into break even and trailed, make sure that’s concrete in your trading plan. Stops are crucial to managing risk because once we find the stop loss placement we can then determine our position size on the trade and then we know ahead of time the cost and risks of the trade. As part of our trading business plan, stops are a cost of doing business as a trader, they are also there to force us to get out if we are wrong on a trade, despite our emotional bias towards staying in a trade, which in the end can cost us dearly if we were to hang onto a loser until we blew out our account balance. CONCLUSION A properly placed stop loss is truly the starting point of a successful trade. It allows us to proceed with calculating reward targets on trades and position size, effectively allowing us to execute our predetermined trading edge with a clear mental state and discipline. Traders who do not focus on stop loss placement first or put a lot of importance on doing it right, are doomed to fail and blow out their accounts. I hope today’s lesson has given you a little ‘snapshot’ into how I approach stop loss placement. My trading course and members’ area will further educate you on how I place stop losses and how I incorporate stop loss placement into my overall trading strategy. To learn more, you can reach out to me privately.
Education
by Skuchies_CryptoKing