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Gold consoldating higher prior to NFP?OANDA:XAUUSD typically has little to no movement the day before NFP (non-farm payroll) So I wouldn't expect large moves today but I do see a perfect breakout pattern today and the larger timeframes show the momentum towards the bullish side. Also gold has been consistently bouncing between these price ranges with the current range being on the low side. I would recommend finding a good entry then closing out today before NFP because there's usually a stop hunt along with a huge push. Keep your eyes open and as always use a Stop Loss This is the breakout pattern I mean
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JakeBrandonCastro
BTC/USD Binance.US - This is why I do not use stop losses.. I must start by saying that I believe Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investing offers the greatest opportunity for the common man to build wealth to have ever existed in the history of the world. Yet, it is still an endeavor that must be entered into cautiously and with research if one is to be successful. The Daily Chart for BTC/USD on (the pathetic excuse of an exchange) Binance.US, serves as a teachable moment that should not be ignored. This chart demonstrates that if you cannot go to sleep peacefully without having a stop loss in place then you may need to reconsider being in this game. The traditional methods of trading securities that were used in the regulated stock markets of the world and which subsequently made a lot of the famous traders of old very rich, predated high frequency trading and algorithmic trading bots on these mostly unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges. Yet, these outdated methods are currently being peddled and taught by the get-rich-trading-crypto-gurus today as the "secrets to crypto trading profits", despite this being 20th century methods that will cause you to lose your shirt if adhered to when trading crypto. Any endeavor to read and learn about crypto trading will, almost without fail, lead to a regurgitated list of the same old trading clichés. One such example: the so-called number one rule of trading. Always use a stop loss. The number one rule of successful trading is undoubtedly to limit your losses. This may be true, but if you are doing that with a stop loss on an exchange then you are asking to be robbed. Yes, you have to know when to cut your losses and move on, but unfortunately, because of the nature of swimming these dangerous financial waters, the sharks in the crypto space will eat your lunch, steal your crypto at bargain prices and laugh as you weep over what could've been. The order books are open. Anybody with a desire to do so can launch a trading "bot" using an API on most any crypto exchange. If that person or entity happens to have enough capital to clear the buy or sell side of the order books of an exchange, then they are free to do so. Once this is done, your crypto is gone at a bargain price with the classic stop loss shake out. Which is why if I cannot hold it without a stop loss, then I don't need it. If a drop in price doesn't present an opportunity for me to buy more, then I don't need it. If I'm not confident that it will be around in 2-5 years from now, then I don't need it. To limit losses, set a price alert on Tradingview, CoinGecko, or your exchange watchlist. If you are afraid it will drop too much before you can act on it, or if it suffers from a lack of volume and thus has a lack of liquidity, then perhaps it's best to HODL or leave it be. If you don't know what any of this means, then that could be a sign that you may need to do a little more due diligence.
BINANCEUS:BTCUSDEducation
by John_E_Crypto
How To Set Stop Losses And Take Profits using EMA StrategyWait for price to break and close below a level. In this example, price closed below support level and turned resistance. Next, wait for price to retest level as new resistance. The retest in this example formed a candlestick that created a wick which protruded through Horizontal Resistance Level, EMA 20 Resistance Level, and Diagonal Trend Resistance Level. For short trade opportunity, set stop loss above EMA 20 Price Level and Rejection Candlestick High Price. Set take profit at previous swing low.
Education
by TradeLive-
Education: Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)ICEUS:KC1! I learned a handy tool used to manage risk under certain circumstances - the Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR) In this example, I actually fade the 3DTSR, but being able to execute different styles of trading strategies reflects an understanding of them, while acknowledging that no system or strategy used in markets will be perfect. Three Day Trailing Stop Rule: There is one initial criteria for the 3DTSR to become active - Either Upon Pattern Breakout - to limit initial risk/add to position at lower relative risk OR Upon Reaching 70% of Target from Breakout as a Trailing Stop In an Uptrend, to exit a position using the 3DTSR Day 1 is the High Day, defined by a new price high - at this point, we are not aware of the setup Day 2 is the Setup Day, defined by a closing price (end of day) that is below the low of Day 1 - at this point, the trigger is active Day 3 is the Trigger Day, as the stop is placed below the low of Day 2 The 3DTSR can also be used as an entry strategy, as shown in the chart here. Day 1 = High Day Day 2 = Setup Day, where price closed below the low of Day 1 Instead of placing a stop below the low of day 2, here I fade the 3DTSR by ADDING to a long coffee position, and jamming the stop to below the low of Day 2 Day 3 = The low of Day 2, or the trigger, is never penetrated, and price opens a cent higher If using the Trigger as a stop, or below the low of Day 2, and using the Triangle shown to imply a measured target, this is a whopping 20 to 1 trade setup. Do you have any profitable trading systems or strategies?
ICEUS:KC1!Education
by jBTCkingaling
3
HOPEFULLY BULLS WILL STRIKE IN AND HIT MY TARGET.The first question i always ask myself is "who is in control of price?" that way i can analyze my trrading from a price action point of view. So, who is in control of price on this one? First we have a bearish trend followed by a tiny pull back and then an indecision candle which tells us that the bearish power might transitioning to the bulls. Of course i might be wrong, but that is why i keep my Risk/Reward a 2:1 minimum, that way i only have to be right 40% of the time in order to be profitable. "Trading is not about being right most of the time, its about being profitable" - Anonymous Trading Details: Time Frame: 8hr Entry: Above the high of the indecision candle Stop loss: A few pips below the Indecision Candle Risk/Reward: 2:1 Account Risk: 2%
Long
by daldertg
MONEY: IN SMALL TRENDSIn my own methodology I've shown in other charts that, it doesn't matter which time frame you make your money. I even showed a 3 min trend on one occasion. All this true is trend-following - which is different to following a moving average of some sort. The ATR line reacts differently to price fluctuations. The important thing is to minimise losses. This chart is a 15 min time frame. It's of little value now because the start of the trend is where you want to be. But for the future I'm showing where the entry point is. Similar strategies can be used on other time frames. 1. See the trend breaking down and fighting to stay afloat. 2. See the double top on the 15 min time frame. 3. See price collapse. 4. See the rebound to 0.5% fib. Experience is required with all this. In this scenario the stop-loss could have been just above 0.618. That was an unlikely rebound in this particular scenario because price was struggling already. (In other scenarios where price isn't struggling as much I've seen retracements to 0.76 and above). Please note carefully: true trend following is a higher risk strategy but also an exceptionally higher reward strategy. It loses far more often than other strategies. But numbers of losses mean little. Why? It's the aggregate of the minority of big gains well outweighing minimised greater numbers of small losses. It certainly isn't for 'everybody'. In he captioned scenario, nobody knows how far that 15 min trend will go. NOBODY! For trend-followers in this scenario, the exit would be the amber line. In other words, the market shows the entry point and the exit point. That's very scary. See same strategy on the lowly 3 min time frame below Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?Hello everyone: Today I want to discuss a topic in Risk Management, specifically on when and how to move your STOP LOSS to BREAKEVEN or in PROFIT when you have a running profit trade/position. In an impulsive phase of the market, we want to make sure to protect our entry as well as secure profits. In this example of EURUSD, I managed to get 2 entries in, and manage it to my best ability and secure profits Trade close down for +7.9% profit Original Trade Forecast and Analysis: This is a topic that will have various answers across traders, as this is certainly up to each individual trader’s strategy, style, and management approach. So understand there is no right or wrong, “holy grail” kind of decision. It's up to you individually as a trader. I will share my management, and why I choose to go with these types of approaches, and you can certainly use them to your advantage to tweak/modify them to fit your strategy. Few things to keep in minds are: 1. Moving the SL to BE or/and in profit is a way to protect your entry, as well as secure profit. 2. Sometimes moving the SL too early may “choke” the price, and you can get stopped out for BE or small profit. Then watch the price take off in your desired direction, which can create negative emotion. 3. Whereas sometimes if you don't move SL to BE or in profit, you can watch a trade that hits 3:1 RR or more, end up reversing down, passing your entry point and to your actual SL of -1%, which can also create negative emotion. 4. No perfect scenario or management when it comes to the aspect of trading, as every trade is unique, and different outcomes may happen, since the market itself is not perfect, and can do whatever it wants to do. Now, I will explain my own management when it comes to moving SL to BE or/and in profit. Certainly this is NOT the only way, nor it will be the best way, but over the years of backtesting & chartwork have given me reassurance on these types of management ways. I will then show some real live examples on the trades that I closed down, and how I manage them as well. CADJPY - Original Trade Forecast and Analysis: GBPJPY - Original Trade Forecast and Analysis: CHFJPY - Original Trade Forecast and Analysis: NASDAQ - AUDNZD - Original Trade Forecast and Analysis: First, a general rule of thumb for me. IF the price has hit about 1:1 RR or so, and has broken past the previous recent lows, I will move my SL to BE. There is no exception in this rule. Again, I explained earlier that sometimes this will help you to protect your entry when price reverses, and sometimes it will choke the price. In this case, I would rather take a BE first, and re-look for entry again in the same position, as long as the bias and the price action is still valid on both the higher time frame and lower time frame. Second, once the entry is in some profit, say 2:1 or higher, I generally will move the SL up to about +0.5% profit or so. Just want to secure a little profit while not choking the price entirely. Third, once the entry is in 3:1 profit, then I will move my SL to +1% profit. This is where I generally will decide whether I should take full profit here, or hold the trade for a mid-long term if the higher time frame has given me the bias. Fourth, since the trade has already been in 3:1 profit or higher, generally we can expect a continuation correction to form now after the impulse phase. If it's a smaller correction and price isn't reversing up sharply right away, I will move my SL to about +1.5% profit, set my alert above the continuation correction and observe the development of the correction. This is generally a point where I can decide to hold the trade longer, or if it reverses up from the continuation correction, then exit the trade for profit. Fifth, if we start to see a possible reversal development, then I will move down my SL to the recent swing highs/lows, or just above the reversal correctional structure, and will let the trade tag me out for profit if it reverses. Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :) If you enjoy these contents, and the educational lessons are helpful, please press like, subscribe and follow for more. Jojo
Education
by jojofang0901
89
BTCUSD Short IdeaMy previous BTC long hit TP1, and as I said I moved SL into Break Even once that happened, so made small profits on that. Now, I'm shorting. We have printed an inverse Cup & Handle pattern, and the technical target for that is my TP2. TP1 (the purple line) is at a support zone. Evidently, fundamental factors going on in China are seeming to impact the overall economy negatively which is also reflecting in the crypto space. I'm expecting a falling crypto market for the near future. Will enter and post more shorts if I encounter any.
Short
by afatuliaj
2
BTCUSDT Long Idea with Take ProfitsI have placed this long on Binance Futures - On the 4hr/Daily timeline, one can draw a downwards channel that Bitcoin has been ranging in for the last 4 weeks. Past week it's been in the upper half, and the 2nd to last 4hour candle had a big bounce off the bottom region to close on the median line. To me, that implied strong bullish momentum, albeit it still closed as a bearish candle. It was followed by a bullish candle, not as powerful as the first, but still with an average amount of volume for the past 20 4hr candles. This could easily turn down and continue further to 37700, hence I only risked 1% instead of my usual 2-3%, but seeing as the fall down from the upper region of the channel down to the middle stemmed from big news and extended by liquidations of futures and other derivatives, I believe that people will be buying up this discounted BTC in the coming couple days. Hence, the long TP 4. TPs 1 and 2 - indicated by the purple lines - stem from my bias towards the upside in the short run. Even if the overall trajectory is down, I feel the short-run (couple days) is upwards. The Adam and Eve pattern on the 15 min is a bullish sign, the neck of which we broke with strong bullish candles. TP 1 and 2 are at basic resistance zones, with TP2 being just below the technical target for the Adam and Eve pattern. TP2 is also just before the 50% retracement of the Fib taken from 19th September (before the massive drop) to the trough from 12 hours ago. Another sign we could reach TP2 in the short run without too many problems from the technical perspective. With TP2 being touched, that would take out a total of 75% of my position; only 25% will be left to ride out to my TP3 and 4, or hit a SL that I will move to break even when price hits TP1, or to TP1 when it hits TP2.
Long
by afatuliaj
The logic of "sell half keep half" (Forex)Both holding & not holding don't make sense. Definitions: - Holding = try to hit "homeruns" every time - Not holding = snatching profits at target (not before, that's just being a huge noob) Assume winners 5 times bigger than losers on average: 5R. And the winrate is of 20%. So that's a PF of 1.25, all good. To keep it simple there is no trailing until target. Risking 0.5% per trade you'll never be down more than 10%. Once at target if you move the stop to 1R (-4), 12% of the time the price will go to 45R. So risk 4 to make 40, or 1 to make 10. With a winrate of 12%. PF = 1.36. But if you do hold and trail well... 12% of 20% is 2.4% of total. 80% will be losers (-1R), 17.6% will be +1R, and only 2.4% will be (huge) winners. In other words: Risking 0.5% per trade, by the time you get that big winner (+22.5%) you will be down 15, 25, maybe 50% on a bad luck streak, or more. 22.5% is just enough to get to breakeven after an 18% drawdown. Compared to just lose 4 times (down to 98%) then win once 2.5% (up to 100.45%) Even after a 10% drawdown (an unlucky >20 losses in a row) get a few 5R's and you quickly get back to zero. Holding just makes little sense, and there is no margin for error. But at the same time it's stupid to ignore these big wins. So here is the solution: Sell half, keep half. (Or any other fraction). Selling half at target allows to smooth the returns. If they are too volatile it just won't work out. And keeping half first with a wide stop then maybe not as much, allows to catch the "big ones". This makes most sense even if "on paper" some will say "oh well you should go for the big ones if the odds are in your favor" lol sorry but it's a bit more complicated than this. More generally with Forex I think that any risk to reward under 1 to 2 is bad as is anything above 1 to 10. Can aim for the moon, but not all the time. The "sell half keep half" concept is the best compromise. Adding to winner at some point is too dangerous, it doesn't work, it's just greed. Adding to winners is another subject entirely and anyway there is nothing as a "just do this". It all must be researched and well thought. With this sell half concept you're securing 2.5 + 1.25 = 3.75 / 5R so that's 75% of the profit. Then risking 25% of profit to catch some of these massive winners is I think the smart move here. Profit is secured, to push this a bit further you might have thought of this already: secure enough profit to breakeven (on 20% winrate secure 4/5 R) and "go double or nothing" on the extra (1R). So it's as if in a way these big winners are "free". Risking 1R with 50% retracement means you're leaving 2R in or 2/5 = 40%. Pretty good. And then the account I showed turns to this: Isn't this the best? Sure you'll "only" be in the huge wins with maybe 1/3 of the normal size but it's how it is. This is not gambling. Really, there is no other choice in my opinion. Sort of go nowhere for a while, then boom get a big winner, account jumps up, then go nowhere for a while, etc. The risk all "double or nothing" is actually stupid even if "on paper" you are risking less than you stand to make. And constantly closing at target is just bad and leaving some profit on the table. This does not apply to stocks (sometimes it does, probably). To be honest with stocks you're better off holding everything and getting these zigzags and all so you always have (balanced out) losses ready to be declared, and the huge winners never ever getting closed.
Education
by MrRenev
17
BTC Ultimate FLAG/TRIANGLE!Money Makers! BTC has had a very strong rejection and is now looking to aim lower to find the next MAJOR support before continuing higher. On the weekly TF shown I've mapped where I think BTC should retest in the upcoming weeks. At this support is where I would consider going LONG. There is another support on the way down, which is around 40k. Let's keep our eyes on these areas and see how the market reacts. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts! Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. Simplicity Wins
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by rnaofs