Long setup - short term
ETHUSD Long setup - Short term
Welcome everyone, we have trade setup developing for ETHUSD, following pretty much the same path as Bitcoin (which we looked at yesterday, and our trade got activated ), only looking a bit weaker.
DAILY
We’re still working well within our downward channel. kind of bouncing around the median line. And perhaps this is is a tradable bounce to the upside, we’ll see in a moment on the 2HR timeframe.
We have to recognize, similar to bitcoin, that we are still in a downward trend, and in a bear market. So any bounce to the upside must be treated with caution, as we believe we still have some downwards action to come before the market reaches a bottom.
We can see ichimoku showing us a weak bullish tk cross beneath the kumo. and the kijun is pointing downwards. We will need this to point up to have signs of bullish momentum, and to do that the price needs to make a higher high, which we are waiting patiently for it to do..
Let’s have a look at the 2HR chart now
2HR
The correction from yesterdays up move is a bit more violent than bitcoins, but that is to be expected. For now no panic yet, we need to close convincingly above the breakout level (and break the upwards channel) before we can enter the breakout trade.
breakout level: 495
Invalidation: 400
First target: 564
Second target: 615
Maximum target: 666
Another option is to see where this retracement takes us, we\re seeing no strong reaction yet at the kijun, so perhaps it will find support somewhere between the .5 and .618 fib level. Where the price bounces depends on the strength of the last upmove, if it is strong the .382 level could very well hold. This is much seen in crypto, so let's see if price holds that level, or breaks through.
For now, again, we wait until price tells us where it wants to go, then we will join it.
Stoploss
Zcoin (XZC) Cryptocurrency Strategy – 3L-R Trade PatternZcoin XZC 30m
The 3L-R reversal is a four-bar pattern and it means three lows (3L) followed by a reversal (R).
The main characteristics of this reversal chart pattern are the three consecutive lower low candles. The high price of these three particular candles doesn’t matter; the only thing that matter is that each low is lower than the prior low.
The fourth bar of the reversal chart pattern needs to have the high bigger than the highest high of the previous 3 candles. We’re not concerned about the low of the last bar.
Step #1: Identify Three Consecutive Lower Low Candles
The first component of this reversal pattern is the three consecutive lower low candles. At this point we’re not concerned about the highs of the three candles.
However, you’ll notice that most of the time each consecutive high is also lower than the previous high.
What is great about the Zcoin (XZC) cryptocurrency strategy is the fact that it’s designed to catch market reversals right at the moment they occur.
Step #2: The fourth candle breaks above the first bar high in the reversal pattern
The immediate candle after the three lower lows needs to be a bullish candle and secondly it needs to break above the first bar high in the pattern.
Normally, the highest high of the first three bars is made by the first bar, however, in the event that this is not the highest high we need to wait until the fourth candle breaks above the highest high of the previous 3 candles.
Note* It’s important that the 4th candle breaks above the first candle high, not the 5th or the 6th because that will invalidate the reversal pattern. We need to be very precise when trading reversal patterns like the 3L-R pattern.
Even though we said that we’re not concerned with the low of the fourth bar, it does matter if the low is higher than the third bar’s low. Through our backtesating results we have found out that this yields better trading performance.
Step #3: How to buy Zcoin: Buy if the fourth candle closes above the last three candles highest high
Before we pull the trigger and buy cryptocurrency Zcoin we need for the fourth candle to also close above the first candle high or above the last three candle highest high point, whichever that might be.
Now is the time to convert this reversal setup into profit and buy Zcoin when the fourth candle closes above the last three candles highest high.
Step #4: Place your protective Stop Loss below the 3L-R pattern low
Trading reversals have lots of benefits and among other things it offers us the possibility to really use a very tight stop loss. If the trade doesn’t work the market will tell you very quickly and it will produce only very little damage to your account balances.
Like with any reversal pattern, if you want to keep the stop very tight you need to place your protective SL below the reversal pattern aka below the 3L-R pattern low.
Step #5: Take profit should be at least two times bigger than your Stop Loss
If you trade this reversal pattern on intraday charts, it’s best to simply take profit once the Zcoin price will give you a return that is two times more than your stop loss. In other words, you have a risk to reward ratio of 1:2.
Alternatively, if you use higher time frames the exit strategy should be based on a trailing stop.
Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using the best Zcoin XZC cryptocurrency strategy. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
PM me if you would like to read the complete strategy.
EUR/USD - downtrend awaitedLooking at the 4-hour chart we can see that the pair continued its growth towards the main support/resistance level.
Currently we are waiting for the development of a downward correction after which a new upward wave may take place. We advise to set Stop Loss around the mark of 1.1720 and Take Profit at 1.1640
HOW TO TRADE ELLIOTT for BEGINNEERSStep #1 Wait until you can spot at least a 3 wave Elliott Wave sequence
Since we always advocate trading in the direction of the trend, as explained above, we’re only
attempting to catch the last wave 5.
So, in order to find our Elliott Wave entry points we need to let the market tip his hands off and
wait to develop the first 3 waves of a five Elliott Wave pattern
We must verify that each wave complies with the Elliott Wave strategy rules in order to confirm
the validity of our Elliott Wave count. In the figure above, we’ve spotted a bearish Elliott wave
count that complies with the Elliott Wave strategy rules, which means we’re looking for a sell
setup.
Step #2 Sell between 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of Wave 3
One of the Elliott wave rules states that, ideally, wave 4 should retrace between 38.2% and 50%
Fibonacci retracement of wave 3. Our Elliott Wave entry points are at 38.2% because we never
know for sure how far the market will retrace and we don’t want to miss the move.
We’re pretty much sure that with experience you can fine tune your Elliott Wave entry points and
get even better entries.
Now, we can note that wave four retrace a little bit above the 50% retracement. Since the market
is never a perfect place where rules are respected to the pip there will always be small
variations and the Elliott Wave strategy is no exception from the rule
Step #3 Place the Protective Stop Loss few pips above the Wave 1 Ending Point
In the section “How to trade Elliott Wave” we highlight the importance of wave 4 never entering
into the wave 1 territory. In this regard, it’s smart to place our stop loss exactly where the Elliott
Wave pattern will be invalidated.
Step #4 Take Profit when Wave 5 is equal to Wave 1 or when we break below
wave 3
With the Elliott Wave strategy is all about experimenting new trade ideas and we encourage you
to find your own set of rules because once you have a firm understanding how to trade Elliott
Wave you can develop many Elliott Wave strategies around it.
In this regard, we don’t have a set in stone take profit strategy because the Elliott Wave strategy
looks to maximize profits and the only way you can do this is through flexibility because no two
Elliott Wave structure is the same
Note** The above was an example of a SELL trade… Use the same rules – but in reverse – for a
BUY trade.
PM me if you want to read the complete strategy.
ADAUSD 1h CARDANO STRATEGYStep #1: Cardano ADA price needs to trade BELOW the 200-day moving average
The first condition that Cardano requires to satisfy is to trade BELOW the 200-day moving average.
When price trades BELOW the 200-day moving average we know we have a strong premise for a bearish trend to be put in place.
The more time Cardano price spends below the 200-day moving average and the biggest the distance between the Ada price and the 200-day moving average the stronger the trend is.
Step #2: Volume needs to be above average and twice as much volume compared with previous volume bars needs to come in
We need to look for instances when the volume bars are above the average volume (the red moving average). But this is not all; we also need the buying volume to be twice as much as previous volume bars.
Wait for trading situations where the selling volume is increasing considerably. This really shows institutional buying that has the power to move the Ada coin price.
Step #3: After volume has increased, sell at the opening of the next candle
When to sell Cardano ADA is quite intuitive if you have followed this cryptocurrency step-by-step guide.
The moment we see institutional selling presence we want to be sure we’re not left out. In this regard, after the volume has increased, we sell at the opening of the next candle preceding the big volume candle.
Usually, you’ll be selling right after the first bearish candle that often is the starting point of a new trend. Don’t be afraid to sell on the way down as this will pay handsomely in the long run.
Step #4: Place protective Stop Loss above the 200-day moving average
Hide your protective stop loss above the 200-day moving average.
A market that has a strong bearish trend should not drop above the most powerful moving average aka the 200-day moving average. By hiding your stop loss above the 200 moving average, we’re minimizing risk as much as possible.
Note* as the trend progresses you can also trail your stop loss below the 200-day MA.
Step #5: You decide or Take Profit when we break and close above the 200-day Moving Average
The 200-day moving average can serve us as a significant trigger for our exit strategy.
When we break above the 200 moving average, that’s the first sign that the trend is about to change the tide. When these happen make sure you take profits.
Note** the above was an example of a SELL trade using the Cardano trading strategy. Use the same rules for a BUY trade – but in reverse.
PM me if you want to read the complete strategy
#BTC $BTCUSD 4H Update AnalysisOn chart is shown a partial of circular support and resistance purple-colored lines.
Support at 6650 and 6550
Resistance at 6850 and 7200
2 PRs:
PR1 trgt = 6605 (reached) (=strong signal) -- further uptrending momentum is likely - failing more than 2 PR failures.
PR2 trgt = 7034.51 (Not yet reached) -- needs more time till proven failed (=avg strength signal w/BearishDiv)
MAs are Positive on price.
RSI wma45 is positive
1 NR: Failed on 4H
1 NR: Still putting negative pressure on 12H frame
Entry made @ 6500 - June 18th
50% position sold ~ 6730 June 20th
placed stop 1: 6525
placed stop 2: 6300
Re-entry @ breakout of 6800 - 6900 zone with valid volume on 4H frame
Odds:
60% Up
40% Dn
USDJPY 15M DONCHIAN CHANNEL STRATEGYStep #1: Attach the Donchian channel indicator to your chart. Preferred setting 20 periods.
For the purpose of this example, we’re going to plot the Donchian channel on the 15-minute time frame. The preferred Donchian channel settings is 20-periods, which means that the channel lines will be calculated based on the price action from the last 5 hour candles
Note* The Donchian indicator is a free pre-build technical indicator that comes free with most trading platforms.
Step #2: Wait until the price crawls along the upper Donchian Channel. The price should not go below the middle band during this stage.
It’s quite easy to visualize the Crawling Along pattern. When the price action touches the upper Donchian channel, and it stays glued to the upper line, we create the price effect where the price looks like it’s crawling along the top Donchian line.
If you think in terms of supply and demand, when the price is crawling along the upper Donchian channel, without departing too far away it means there are lots of buyers that try to push the price higher. This eventually will lead to seller capitulating once the breakout happens.
Another characteristic of the Crawling pattern is that during this stage, the price shouldn’t go below the middle Donchian band.
Note* The closer the price action moves along the upper band, the stronger the trend is.
If you spot this type of price action, then you know this day trend has a big potential for following through.
Step #3: Buy1 when the price pulls back to the middle Donchian band. Buy2 when the price pulls back to the lower Donchian band.
The channel width gives us a measurement of the market volatility. When we have high volatility in the market, this will be shown on the chart by wide channel bands, whereas low volatility will be displayed on the chart by a narrow channel.
Like with all technical indicators the Donchian channel can be subject to false signals from whipsaws and sizeable market swings. Breakouts are very hard to trade, and that is the reason why we prefer to enter on pullbacks.
We recommend splitting your trade into two parts as this will give you a better average entry price.
The first buy order is deployed when the price pulls back to the middle Donchian band, while the second buy order is deployed when the price retraces all the way to the lower Donchian band.
Our entry strategy will give us the opportunity to implement a proper risk management
This entry strategy is a good way of framing a trade. So, you have a very specific entry point
By sticking to this entry rules, you will realize this is not a bad trade to take because you trade in the direction of the prevailing trend
Step #4: Hide your protective Stop Loss below the lower Donchian band
Your stop loss can be placed below the lower Donchian band. The catch is that you need to move to the left side of the chart and find the first part of the lower Donchian band where it is flat.
You’ll find that often times the Donchian channel will plot perfectly flat lines. This can provide us with excellent spots to hide our stop loss.
Step #5: Take profit at the end of the day or if you want to ride the trend more take profit when
The beauty of the Donchian trading strategy is that you can apply multiple exit strategies so you can maximize your profits.
Now, that we know that the supply and demand balance is skewed to the upside, we can expect buyers to step in far quicker on retracements than they have before. This can indicate that we’ll have a buy explosion to the upside.
The first proposed exit strategy is to liquidate your position at the end of the day. Since we’re trying to take advantage only of the intraday trends we don’t want to have any overnight exposure.
Secondly, you can wait until the price breaks below the most recent flat lower Donchian band.
Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using our Donchian Channel Strategy PDF. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
DOGEUSD DAY STRATEGYStep #1: Wait until you can spot a bar that has its daily range smaller than the previous three days
The first rule requires you to have the patience until the Nr4 pattern develops on the Dogecoin chart. When we have a daily trading range that is narrowed than the previous trading ranges it means that the price is contracting.
Based on our backtesting results we have found out that there is a high probability of a trend move after you spot this type of contraction. This is kind of a general rule because the markets do move from periods of contractions to periods of expansion.
This is the reason why this short-term price pattern is so powerful.
Step #2: Mark the High and the Low of the 4th day and switch to the 1 hour time frame
Our trade is taken the next day after the Nr4 pattern showed up. In order to have a clear view of the short-term price action we need to switch our focus to the 1 hour time frame. Before you switch the time frames make sure you mark on your chart the high and the low of the 4th day.
Step #3: How to buy Dogecoin: Buy only if the breakout of the Nr4 high happens during the first 5 trading hours.
We use the Opening Range Breakout technique to time the market and have an effective trade entry. The ORB is even more profitable if it occurs after inside days that have a smaller trading range than the previous 3 days.
Our Dogecoin trade doesn’t have an inside day, but nevertheless we want to buy only after we break above the Nr4 day high. Also, we want to make sure the breakout happens during the first five trading hours of the next day.
Trades based on the ORB – Nr4 pattern will show you a profit instantly.
Now, if the trade is not showing you a profit right away than your trade becomes more vulnerable. As a general rule, if after the first trading hour your trade is not in the green, you can safely close the trade at the market.
Of course, you can only do that if your stop loss hasn’t been triggered in the meantime.
Step #4: Place your protective Stop Loss below the Nr4 day low
You can hide your protective stop loss below the Nr4 day low. Alternatively, you can also place your stop loss below the current day low as this will give you a better risk to reward ratio.
The ORB – Nr4 pattern tends to precede strong trend day activity, so your stop loss should be rarely hit. Both of these patterns can be traded individually, but when combined they tend to produce even more powerful trades.
Step #5: Take profit at the close of the first 1-hour bearish candle
Our take profit strategy is fairly easy and it’s slightly modified from the original strategy highlighted in the “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout” book written by Toby Crabel.
Even though the ORB pattern tends to lead to trend trading days we’re more conservative and want to quickly take profits. So as soon as the first bearish candle shows up we close the trade and enjoy our daytrade profits.
Alternatively, you can keep the trade open until the end of the day if you want to extrapolate more profits from the cryptocurrency market.
Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using our Dogecoin cryptocurrency strategy. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
PM me if you want to read the complete strategy.
NEM XEM RSI CRYPTO STRATEGYRate of Change indicator or simply put it the ROC indicator is another momentum indicator and as the name suggests it measures the rate of a crypto’s change in price and predicts future price movements.
Our RSI is applied over the ROC. So the RSI line is derived from ROC not the price.
Step 1 - Step #1: Wait until the RSI has a value of less than 30
At this stage, we need to use the RSI readings from the daily chart. Just wait until the RSI has a value of less than 30. You’ll have to wait for the daily close to get the RSI reading.
Obviously, this means that you’ll always buy XEM the next day.
Once you spot an RSI reading less than 30 we switch to a lower time frame which brings us to the second rule of the Nem (XEM) cryptocurrency strategy.
Step #2: Switch to the 1-hour chart and wait again until the RSI shows a reading of less than 30.
The second rule that needs to be satisfied before pulling our trigger is to wait again for the RSI indicator to show a reading of less than 30 but this time on the 1-hour time frame.
Remember, this should be the next day after the RSI posted less than 30 readings on the daily chart.
Step #3: How to buy XEM: Buy at the opening of the next candle after the RSI went below 30 levels.
The original momentum Pinball pattern uses a different entry method. We have done some backtesting and found that we can achieve superior returns if we follow a different entry strategy.
How to buy XEM with our cryptocurrency trading strategy is much more eloquent because it uses the concept of multiple time frame analysis.
Buy at the opening of the next candle after the RSI posted a reading of less than 30.
Step #4: Place your protective Stop Loss below the previous day low
After the buy EOS order is triggered, we need to have a strategy to protect our bottom line.
The best Nem XEM price to hide your protective stop loss is below the previous day low. The Nem XEM price should not come to this point.
Step #5: Take profit should be 2 or 3 times larger than your stop loss
Again, our exit strategy is slightly different than the original momentum Pinball pattern.
Be sure to close your Nem trade once the take profit is two or three times larger than your stop loss.
Alternatively, you can use the initial exit strategy which requires taking profits when we break above the previous day high. Don’t limit yourself to either of these two strategies, but instead make the best out of them and use the one that suits the most the current trading environment.
Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using our Nem (XEM) cryptocurrency strategy. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
PM me if you want to read the complete strategy.
GBPUSD 1H STRIKE TRADER ELITE PULSE INDICATOR SIGNALSStrike Trader Elite Pulse Indicator is a Macd based signal indicator
Green vertical line indicates Macd signal
Entry is based on a delayed amount of pips before a Buy Stop order Yellow line is painted on chart
Buy Stop Loss Red line is painted on chart from a pre-determined amount of pips from entry
Buy Take Profit Green line is painted on chart from a pre-determined amount of pips from entry
PM me if you are interested in reading about this indicator
XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert GeneratorXPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert Generator
Long-Term Trailing-Stop study detecting S&P500 Stock Market Crashes/Corrections and showing Volatility as warning signal for upcoming crashes
Detecting or avoiding stock market crashes seems to be the 'Holy Grail' of strategies/studies.
This study detects all major S&P500 stock market crashes and corrections since 1980 depending on the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter. The 5 crashes/corrections of 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2010 were successfully detected with the default parameters.
With the default parameters this study generates 5954% profit, with 6 closed trades, 100% profitable, while the Buy&Hold strategy only generates 2427% profit, so this strategy beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 2.45 times!
The script shows a lot of graphical information:
the green area shows a trading period (between buy and sell)
the close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is temporarily lower than the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green.
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as colored curves
the Volatility is show below in green and red. The alert threshold (red) is default set to 200 (see Volatility Warning Threshold parameter below)
Trailing Stop Smoothness value:
Adjust the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter to hide/show smaller corrections/crashes:
96: 6 trades, 100% profit, 5954% profit, detected crashes: 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010
90: 8 trades, 100% profit, 5347% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011
74: 9 trades, 100% profit, 4964% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015
41: 10 trades, 100% profit, 4886% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015
How to use this alert generator?
Add to your alerts to get an automatic warning (via e-mail) of an upcoming stock market crash
Optimize parameters using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters
More trades don't necessarily generate more overall profit. It is important to detect only the major crashes and avoid closing trades on the smaller corrections. Bearing the smaller corrections generates a higher profit.
Watch out for the volatility alerts generated at the bottom (red). Threshold can by changed by the Volatility Warning Threshold parameter (default 2% ATR). In almost all crashes/corrections there is an alert ahead of the crash.
Although the signal doesn't predict the exact timing of the crash/correction, it is a clear warning signal that bearish times are ahead!
The current correction in march 2018 is not yet a major crash but there was already a red volatility warning alert. If the volatility alert repeats the next weeks/months, chances are higher that a bigger crash or correction is near.
As can be seen in the graphic, the deeper the crash is, the higher and wider the red volatility signal goes. So keep an eye on the red flag!
Information about the parameters: see below
If you are interested in buying this S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert Generator, please drop me a message to receive the code (Price 99$).
DGB/BTC 25+% potentialBuy now or wait after the breakthrough of a triangle or flag in the zone 0.00000464 - 0.00000482
stoploss
in case the triangle is triggered down
0.00000397 - 0.00000389 if there still one more movement to the bottom of the flag, the stops are different:
0.00000371 - 0.00000363
Target:
0.00000512 - 0.00000558
maximum:
0.00000718
EOS DAY CRYPTO STRATEGYStep #1: EOS coin price must make a new 20-bars low
You have to wait until cryptocurrency EOS makes a new 20-bars low.
This is essential because we want to make sure that the prevailing trend is “well established.”
The only reason why we trade against the original 20-bar rule is because we know that the original Turtle system has a very low win rate. So, you can make a failed pattern work for you if you do the exact opposite thing of what the initial pattern was supposed to do.
Step #2: The previous low must have occurred at least 4 bars earlier than the current 20-bar low
The second rule that needs to be satisfied before pulling our trigger is that the previous low must happen at least 4 bars earlier than the current 20-bar low.
Basically, this trading rule is trying to point out that we need the EOS price to have a sharp move when it does the 20-day low.
Why do we need the EOS price to have an abrupt move?
If you’re an avid reader of our TSG blog, you probably know through our teachings that the more reliable reversal happens after a trend ends with a sharp move.
The Turtle Soup reversal pattern satisfies all trading conditions outlined above which mean that we can move forward and describe how to buy EOS coin.
Step #3: How to buy EOS: After the market drops below the 20-bar low, place a buy order above the prior 20-bar high
Now, the original Turtle Soup pattern uses a slightly different entry method. Instead of buying at the prior 20-bar low we buy at the previous 20-bar high.
This entry strategy ensures that we’re getting into the market while the market has stopped falling and it’s starting to get traction on the upside. This is one way we’re going to capture the potential trend reversal.
Important note* If the buy EOS order is not triggered during the same day you must cancel the order
Secondly, when trading EOS tokens with our strategy, your entry will be not too far from the low, which means that you’ll be able to use a very tight stop loss.
Step #4: Place your protective Stop Loss below the current swing low
After the buy EOS order is triggered, you have to place your initial stop loss below the current swing low. If the EOS price makes a new low, then we want to get out of our trade because the Turtle Soup pattern got invalidated.
This cryptocurrency strategy allows us to maintain a very low risk profile on all of our trades. Professional traders and hedge fund managers always look first to protect their capital and this trading strategy enable you to accomplish that for yourself.
Step #5: Take profit when you can count 20 bars from the 20-bar low or use your own exit strategy
Again, our exit strategy is slightly different than the original Turtle Soup system. We take profits after the market has advanced at least 20 bars from the 20-bar low.
Alternatively, you can use the initial exit strategy which requires for you to trail your stop loss. Due to the volatility of this reversal pattern your trade will last on average between 4 hours and a few days, so trade with caution.
Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using our EOS cryptocurrency strategy. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
PM me if you would like to read the complete strategy.
GBPAUD DAY ZIG ZAG STRATEGYStep #1: Set the ZigZag indicator settings at 20 for the Depth and 5% Deviation
Firstly, we want to make sure the ZigZag tool will only show the more significant swing high and swing low points in the market. For this, we have to use at least 20 periods for the Depth and 5% deviation to accurately display the market swings.
Step #2: Plot the Fibonacci Extension line once the first two swing waves are established.
In order to plot the Fibonacci Extension line, we need three points of reference. As soon as the first two waves of the Zig Zag pattern are developed, we’re offered with three swing levels that we’re going to use to draw the Fibonacci extension levels.
The reason why we use the Fib extension levels is to try to anticipate where the last swing wave of the Zig Zag pattern will be formed.
The zig zag indicator will only mark the swing low as being formed too late for us to rely and base our trades alone on this indicator. This is the main reason we employ different trade tactics to anticipate where it’s more likely for the zig zag pattern to end.
Step #3: Wait for the third wave to terminate between 0.618 – 0.786 or between 1.0 – 1.272
The reality is that market symmetry doesn’t happen that often. The AB=CD pattern requires a lot of precision in order to have all the conditions for this pattern to be valid.
Throughout our backtesting software, we have found out that the third wave of the zigzag pattern ends either between 0.618 – 0.786 or between 1.0 – 1.272.
Since we can’t know for sure where the third wave will end, we’re going to employ one of our favorite trade techniques to spot a swing point in the market.
Step #4: Wait until you have a candle with a higher low on the right and the left. The bar from the right needs to break above the bar on the left.
The three bar pattern to spot a market swing point is quite easy.
All you need to do is to wait until you have a candle that has a higher low on both the left and the right side of it. In order for this three bar pattern to be confirmed we also need the bar from the right to break above the high of the bar from the left.
Step #5: Zigzag Trading Strategy: Buy at the close of the three bar pattern
After the three bar pattern is completed, we don’t want to lose any more time, and we go buy at the market.
Note* We use the three bar pattern to anticipate swing market points with all of our trading strategies.
Step #6: Hide your protective Stop Loss below the three bar pattern.
The stop loss is going to go below the three bar pattern. Your stop loss may be a little bit bigger depending on the time frame you’re trading.
You want to make sure that the three bar pattern where your stop loss goes maintains at least a 2% risk.
You don’t want to risk more than 2% of your account in any given trade.
Step #7: Take profit equal 2 or 3 times more the Stop Loss.
Now, where’s our profit target going?
The classical ABCD pattern essentially keeps you at a 1:1 risk reward ratio. Also, a lot of the times with the ABCD pattern, you’ll see it pretty frequently that those targets areas are front runned.
However, when you trade with the Zig Zag indicator, you’re able to capture two or even three times more the risk taken.
Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using our Zig Zag trading system. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
PM me if you would like to read the complete strategy.
EURUSD 4H SHORT TRADEPrice has been above 50 sma
If price breaks below 50 sma I have a sell stop waiting @ 1.1647
Take Profit @ 1.1555
Stop Loss @ 1.1747
Need Macd to cross below Red signal and zero lines. Also blue dotted +80 Stoch line - over bought
Close trade if Macd crosses above Red signal line and if market indecision makes small bodied bars hovering above
50 sma.
Learn To Identify & Trade The Head & Shoulders Pattern Properly.Head & Shoulders Pattern
1. Introduction
2. Definition
3. Qualities
4. Example
5. Conclusion
1. Introduction
I realize the Head & Shoulders pattern is a common pattern most traders know. However, I feel that too many traders don't identify them properly nor realize the actual makeup of a H & S.
There are two types of Head & Shoulders: Inverse, and regular.
According to samuraitradingacademy.com accuracy for the Head & Shoulders Pattern is 83.04% & Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern is 83.44% . In crypto though it may be lower due to volume volatility. For this educational idea I am using an old example of a H & S and will be only providing examples for a bearish H & S. The same rules apply for a inverse. I am quoting sites here that I will link.
2. Definition
A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline.
As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with a example.
3. Qualities
Prior Trend : It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter).
Left Shoulder : While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact.
Head : From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy.
Right Shoulder : The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.
Neckline : The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. Sometimes more than one low point can be used to form the neckline.
Volume : As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head, then decreases during the advance of the right shoulder. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.