Where to place your stop loss-a close above theThe big question in every trader mind, where to place my STP loss. most common trading strategy calls to place the stop loss above a SZ (Supply zone) or Below a DZ (Demand Zone), right that seems easy but its not. ask any trader & he will recount stories of price violating the SZ, & the stop loss is triggered the loss is carried (hopefully small) only to have the price reverse fortune.
This is exactly what occurred in this short trade on NYSE:GM (General Motors); on the left hand side we have the long-term chart (W) & on the right hand side we have the trade chart(D).
The Long-term chart is clearly in downtrend. the price came into the Lower High of the (W) downtrend. a short was opened @39.20 with a stop loss above the LH of the (W) downtrend slightly above @41.00 many odds are in the favour of taking this trade.
What is interesting, on the right hand side, (D) chart, the price violated the LH supply zone & closed above the supply zone (The red circle) ; my trade plan calls to close a trade after a candle stick
* Violates a Supply zone by 10%
* candle stick closes above the SZ
Both conditions were met here, yet I did not close the trade & waited for a confirmation. yes i violated my own trade plan. Trading is fluid & my trade plan is ever changing. I closed the short today @32 mark. No permanent was made to my trade plan. but I took note of a price violating the SZ by over 10% & closing above the SZ but still the SZ held & the Short worked out.
Stopsandlimits
Where to place your STP LOSS is important & can be misleading Choosing your STP loss determines your risk, and is essential part of executing your trade.
On this trade analysis, we are looking at ticker F (Ford Motors) using the weekly (W) chart as the active chart, the price is selling off & coming into a Demand Zone (DZ). This DZ is also the last higher Low HL of the long-term (M) monthly uptrend.
my trading strategy; makes perfect sense of placing LNG entry, at this level. Order entered & waiting like a snipper in the DZ, surly enough the price penetrates into the DZ & the LNG order is executed at $12.90, now where to place your STP LOSS, meaning at which point do you determine the trade has gone against you & you need to exit & cut your losses short.
There are many strategies for placing your stop loss, some of the common ones, are placing the stop loss below the DZ, some other strategies offer a margin as a buffer, for example if price violates the DZ by lets say 0.50 points, am out & the STP Loss is triggered. the stop loss placement strategy that i used in this trade required a close of a candle stick below the DZ, few days after, once that occurred I executed you my STP loss, and was out at 11.30 points loss, so 1.60 loss per share. that is within my Risk to Reward ratio
Now, the trade was still a loss, yet it was not a bust; simply because I anticipated this risk within expected range of my trade plan. in other words, I followed my trading plan & rules; that really matters. Following a trading plan is how novice traders become trading sharks. Obviously it hurts the ego to witness price rallies to $15 and above; shortly after closing below the DZ & triggering my stop-loss; but thats life, you can't make sense of it all, the best we can do is learn how to navigate it.
*Active Chart (W)
*Long-term chart (M)
*Enter timing chart (D)
Automated Trading with Trailing Take Profit and Scaling ExitsAutomated Trading on Tradingview can be challenging. But with some strategies employing smart trading techniques, you can find your way to a reliable setup. There are many aspects of automated trading I've employed and studied. Those are as follows:
Trailing Take Profits: Allowing a trade to surpass the original profit target if the price continues in your favor, followed by an offset value.
Stop On Close: Waiting for a trade to close a bar below your stop loss before exiting a trade.
Scaling Exits: Exiting a partial position at a set limit price between the entry and final take profit target.
More info available on the chart.
How to place stop loss like a Pro TraderStop loss placement is perhaps not the most glamorous of trading topics to discuss, but it is a critically important one. If you do not know how to properly place your stop loss, you will be in for a very, very rough ride as you trade the markets. Essentially, for a trader, everything hinges on proper stop loss placement and risk management. If you understand these two aspects of trading and how to approach them properly, making consistent money in the market will become much, much easier for you.
Note : This lesson is based on higher time frame charts and the concepts are not applicable to very low time frames which is a different world of trading and not something I do or recommend so I can’t comment on it.
The theory behind placing stop losses like a pro trader
The first thing to understand and drill into your head about stop loss placement is that you should NEVER place a stop loss based on some random amount of pips. I know a lot of traders do this because I get emails from traders telling me they use “20 pip stops” or “50 pip stops”, etc. etc. This is NOT proper stop loss placement and it is definitely NOT how professional traders place their stop losses…
A stop loss should typically be based on a level in the market. Price should have to breach a level to ‘prove’ your trade wrong. You want to see price invalidate your view by giving you fact-based evidence you are wrong, that evidence comes in the form of the most logical nearby level of support or resistance being breached.
You need to take into account the context of the market you are trading and determine what level price would have to break through before your original view doesn’t make technical sense anymore. Let’s take a look at two examples to make this clearer…
The first example below shows a random pip amount stop loss placement, the second example shows a stop loss placed within the context of the market and nearby levels. Make note of the end results of both trades…
Notice in the chart below the trader placed his stop loss at an arbitrary 50 pip distance from entry. Traders typically do this because they don’t understand how to place stops properly and also because they want to trade a bigger position size. This is wrong. You need a logic / chart-based reason to place a stop loss, not just a random pip distance or a pip distance that will allow you to trade the size you want. Notice this trader would have been stopped out for a loss just before the market shot higher, without them on board…
In the next chart, we can see how this trade worked out for the trader who knew how to place stops properly / like a pro and who wasn’t placing his stop arbitrarily or based on greed (to trade a bigger size). Notice the stop loss was placed beyond the key support level and beyond the pin bar low, giving the trade good space to work out but also being placed at a point that would logically invalidate the trade if price moved beyond it….
Let’s briefly go over typical stop loss placement on two price action setups I teach; the pin bar signal and the inside bar signal . You will notice, I used a risk reward ratio of 2 to 1 on each trade, this is my ‘default’ risk reward. In other words, I always start any trade by seeing if a 2 to 1 (or more) risk reward is realistically possible given the market structure and context the pattern formed within. For expanded examples, you can reach out to me for my lesson on how to place stops and targets like a pro .
Note: Be aware of the average volatility over the last 7 to 10 days of the market you’re trading. You want your stop at least half of ATR (average true range) if not more or you will get stopped out due to noise.
The Average True Range is a tool we can use to see average market volatility over XYZ days. It is a good tool to utilize for stop loss placement when no nearby key levels are present. To learn how to apply and use the ATR tool more in-depth, you can reach out to me for my article on the average true range.
The example below shows how to use the ATR for stop loss placement and how it can keep you in a trade despite initial choppy conditions after the pattern…
IMPORTANT STOP LOSS PLACEMENT TIPS
It’s important to consider reward or target potential before taking any trade. You base the potential target of a trade on the stop loss distance. If the stop has to be too wide in order for the trade to have enough space to potentially work out, and the risk reward potential doesn’t stack up, then it’s usually not the best idea to take the trade.
Risk reward and position sizing are intimately related to stop loss placement obviously, and crucial topics in their own right. But, we are focusing here in this lesson just on stops, be aware that stops are paramount and take precedence over targets, in a way, stops are a qualifier for the target and overall risk reward and will effectively help you filter trades you should take and should not.
It is important to note that stops should always remain constant and can’t be widened, however targets can be widened, stops should only ever be tightened and moved into break even and trailed, make sure that’s concrete in your trading plan.
Stops are crucial to managing risk because once we find the stop loss placement we can then determine our position size on the trade and then we know ahead of time the cost and risks of the trade. As part of our trading business plan, stops are a cost of doing business as a trader, they are also there to force us to get out if we are wrong on a trade, despite our emotional bias towards staying in a trade, which in the end can cost us dearly if we were to hang onto a loser until we blew out our account balance.
CONCLUSION
A properly placed stop loss is truly the starting point of a successful trade. It allows us to proceed with calculating reward targets on trades and position size, effectively allowing us to execute our predetermined trading edge with a clear mental state and discipline. Traders who do not focus on stop loss placement first or put a lot of importance on doing it right, are doomed to fail and blow out their accounts.
I hope today’s lesson has given you a little ‘snapshot’ into how I approach stop loss placement. My trading course and members’ area will further educate you on how I place stop losses and how I incorporate stop loss placement into my overall trading strategy. To learn more, you can reach out to me privately.
UPDATE:GBPUSD 19pips ? @paperboiFXThis is an update to an idea i posted a few days ago! PaperboiFX gave us a signal and we Setup the trade:stop loss at previous swing low, i added the support and resistance indicator (based on number of swing high/low) to help visualize and negotiate our stops and avoid getting stopped out before movement in our direction. That being said: we still need to find the take profit at the closest ,00 or ,50 from 1:1 risk/reward ratio(and/or) nearest support/resistance! lets see what happens when the market opens in a couple hours FX:GBPUSD
BTCUSD- Fear not the whales! Staying afloat amidst manipulationOH NO THE WHALES ARE MOVING THE MARKET!!!!
Yes, yes they are.
But that doesn't mean you have to watch your stops get swallowed up like a helpless krill!
All jokes aside, I hardly ever post about bitcoin as I'm an Ether guy myself, but there really is some highly suspect moves in the BTC market as of late. D4 did a great job of covering some of the suspect zones (link to his chart is provided) and in the comments you can find some secondary commentary and an accompanying chart showing some additional evidence of possible manipulation.
But lets be real, if you're trading cryptos and keep your head in the game, you already knew this was happening.
On to the good stuff!
So today we're going to:
Check out one of my methods for staying away from disastrous losses from liquidated stops while whales move the market
Look at some possible paths for BTC over the next day or so
Oogle some obescenely beautiful channel movement
Staying Afloat
***This is just what I personally do to manage my trades during heavy manipulation, it is neither perfect nor without risk; but if you stay proactive about watching the market you should be able to minimize the likeliness of taking losses in a whale sell off.
I truly cant stress this one enough: Monitor to break even before you even consider dropping a stop.
If you're trading 4 hours or greater bars, drop down your usual trade time cycle to half of its usual value and do your best to check the market often for dramatic shifts. (I usually trade 4 hour charts, in this market I drop to two and do my best to check every 4 hours at most).
Place very loose stops (I usually push down my normal stop as much as 6-8% lower
DONT LOSE YOUR HEAD! whales moving the markets can be scary to watch, but they're relatively easy to pick out.
You can see how many major "whale moves" correct rather rapidly (likely after minnow positions are liquidated), HODL is never a trade strategy, but a calculated short term hold for indications of a market shift is a completely viable strategy; possibly even keeping you from the way too common "buy high, sell low syndrome")
Possible Paths
Blue seems unlikely with the dropping volume against the sharp recovery that just occurred
Green is what I would really like to see and would be the "healthiest", id be more bullish on a pump to the 100% fib after some strong consolidation along the channel than a low volume jet upwards.
I dont think this scenario is too likely considering weve been moving channel bound for upwards of two weeks. If it does though, we're looking at some good support at both $8750 and $8000 (~%50 fib of current channel bound cycle)
Channels can be a beautiful thing
Theres not too much to this one, I just love examples of market geometry and technicals playing out in fromt of me. Really the channels began forming shortly after the recent cycle low reversal. It's interesting to note that both the high/low cycle shifted by a single channel each time the fib ratios were reached.
Stay frosty, and learn to fight the whales fellow crypto traders!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Austin Doyle
CTO
BTC Update Easter Saturday in Oz - Happy Easter to my Followers.Happy Easter all and Sundry,
Hope you guys are enjoying your holidays and elf medicating with copious amounts of Easter Eggs.
BTC has been ranging again, it is a bit early to call yet but we may be moving into a inv H&S, we wil need to watch to see how it develops. Im am spending most of my day with the family, so won't be around to often to update but as usual guys, wait for confirmation of a breakout, set your stop loss underneath the neckline, because many will short the breakout and without volume, it will fail and possibly dropping, depending on how many stop losses are set under the neckline, there could be a fair bit of liquidity. Target for this breakout is $7800 but I highly doubt it will get even close to this target, Set a profit taking stop at around $7500 and then let it run and trail a stop loss behind it from there. look at your trade size and risk management to determine if this is worth a trade, trading against a trend is risky and these patterns are not highest probability setups.
Good luck and happy trading
G'day
Thanks for dropping by, hopefully you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.
Trader, Chart analyst and all round larrikin. Reside in NQ Australia, surrounded by Crocodiles, snakes & giant spiders, not to mention the boxing Kangaroos and devilish Drop bears. It makes my job quite hazardous but strewth mate, I love it.