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Stoxx50

Final Trade...29th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The last trading days of the year are upon us and the state of the equity market are very different to preceding years. It's time to waive goodbye and say good-riddance. Let's cheer for a sea change in the New Year. ➤ I made one last Trade to see out the year. Although the S&P500 broke below the support level it has not broken below the recent low of the last week. There's a good probability of a bounce here. ➤ The European indices are sitting just above their respective 50-day moving averages. They too may bounce. ➤ I currently hold a +68% long exposure. My US positions were cut today. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Back in the action.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2
Low Low Low Low...28th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 "Shawty had them apple bottom jeans (jeans) Boots with the fur (with the fur) The whole club was lookin' at her She hit the floor (she hit the floor) Next thing you know Shawty got low, low, low, low, low, low, low, low" ➤ That's the lyric from the song by Flo Rida. I had to look up the meaning of "Shawty". It is usually a reference to a young and attractive woman. Sexist or not this term nicely describes what's happening with the NASDAQ and the sexier (ahem...speculative) tech names. It looks like it wants to finish the year low low low low. ➤ The whole club (market) was indeed lookin' at her. All imagining the boundless future you could have together...except like many, we were late to the party and the music was about to stop. She's been dancing on the floor this whole time. Next thing you know, she literally did hit the floor in the most unflattering way along with all our dreams. ➤ OK, that's a bit over dramatic but you get the point. As usual, the masses piled on late to an overinflated market and that meant the party was about to end. ➤ With today's price action, once again we had a false dawn. Pre-market was firmly positive only to see it whither away by US market open. NASDAQ leading the indices lower. It's not pretty and getting tiresome. ➤ I currently hold 0% exposure. My US positions were cut today. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Back on the sidelines.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Same Same, 27th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Thing's pretty much look the same as expectations prior to the Christmas Holidays. I'm expecting equity prices to bounce higher. The extent of which will tell us if the Bulls can regain a foothold or the Bears once again take control. ➤ Price again bounced off the Support level at 379/380 on the SPY. Pre- US Market Trade in Asia is firmly positive. Pre-hours have been wildly unpredictable of actual direction during US Trading hours. ➤ I currently hold +34% long exposure. My European positions were cut but I may re-enter depending on today's action. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Watch for the Bounce (if any).
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Cheerless, 23rd December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity prices made no further headway. Instead, a large Bearish day threatened to add to a Cheerless Christmas. Price managed to recover some losses by end of trading day leaving things in the lurch. ➤ NASDAQ is performing miserably. It's almost back to the lows of the year. One shouldn't be surprised it is lagging so badly. Used to being valued with a zero % interest/discount rate the exact opposite narrative of higher borrowing costs for longer is now firmly entrenched. ➤ I currently hold +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Belated Christmas Rally anyone?
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Inspired, 22nd December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If yesterday's bounce was uninspiring, the Bulls were clearly inspired today. It's almost Christmas Cheer time after all. The VIX has collapsed back to the pink highlighted zone in the chart. Let's see if the Bulls can break below. It's been bound by this zone since the start of the year! ➤ I'm not looking for a big aggressive bounce. Although that would be a nice surprise. There has been a change of momentum in the rally since the Oct bottom. 390/3900 resistance looms large. The European indices are acting relatively stronger bouncing off the 50-day moving average. ➤ I currently hold +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Back in the action. Rally time?
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Uninspiring, 21st December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ We saw the smallest of bounces in the S&P500. It was uninspiring. Still, an upward move has to start from somewhere. Today may be the day to risk some capital. ➤ Uninspiring too is the Poll I took about people's opinions on which group of market participants might do well next year. 45% voted for "Everyone is a Loser". The contrarian in me would suggest that gives hope for a decent positive performance for equity markets in 2023. ➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines for an imminent trading signal.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1st Leg Down, 19th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A Change of Character "CHoCH" has occured in S&P500 uptrend since the Oct bottom. The drop since 13th Dec looks to be the largest in size. This changes the momentum of the Bulls. Either Bulls will take pause with some sideways movement prior to igniting another run higher or the Bears will now come out to play. I favour the Bearish scenario right now. ➤ Price has closed the 10th Nov price gap. There is an opportunity for price to rebound higher to relieve the recent selling. The resistance at 390/3900 would be an ideal stopping area for the next leg down if the Bearish scenario plays out. ➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines for an imminent trading signal.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Hmmm... 16th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I expected a move higher for equities given my long exposure. The exposure was relatively small reflecting an overall low level of conviction. The surprise to me was the extent of the negative move. This overshadowed my low exposure adding to the recent run of bad trading results. ➤ Technically, the uptrend since the October bottom looks to be over or on pause. The S&P500 has made a lower low. Price has fallen below the key support level at 390/3900 as well as the 50 and 200 day moving averages. A gap formed due to the lower open although it is small. Price need not levitate to close it. It may first gravitate lower to close the 10th Nov gap. ➤ More Bears will come out of hibernation if we see a lower high form to signal a medium-term downtrend that should last for a few months. This is within the context of the longer term downtrend of successive lower highs and lower lows since January. ➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I was wrong, all the excitement is not just for the Football World Cup Final.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Back to Square 1, 15th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If we took a two day view of events, the S&P500 managed to make little headway up or down. Pre-data release, I eluded to people getting a bit over excited by bidding up the VIX. Of course, there was the excitement of the CPI data intra-day. That has all fizzled out for now. ➤ Now that all the excitement is over for another month, I think there is some positive bias here. I will put a bit of money to work. I'm looking for VIX to continue lower in the very short-term. ➤ That being said, all other indices such as the NASDAQ, RUSSELL, DAX etc all look very "messy" in terms of their price structure. I will leave them alone for now. ➤ I currently hold a +33% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: All the excitement is now for the Football World Cup Final!
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Closing the Gap, 14th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture ➤ Inflation data came in softer than expected and equities prices jumped with enthusiasm. By end of trade, much of the gains were given up. ➤ The result of the inflation data resulted in a huge price gap between the previous day's close and market open. Gaps like these tend to get closed over time or like today...immediately. Note that there is still an lower unclosed gap created on 10th Nov also due to the CPI data. ➤ That being said, S&P500 set a new high since the 13th Oct bottom. I don't yet see any signs that this uptrend is done. The Fed interest rate decision and subsequent price movement could change this. A significant Bearish bar may result in a Change of Character. ➤ I currently hold NO exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Time to be patient.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
What's with the VIX? 13th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Today we saw the unusual situation where the VIX jumped significantly higher and the S&P500 equity index also rose higher. Normally, these two indices move opposite to each other i.e. higher level of volatility (often due to fear) leads to lower equity prices and vice versa. ➤ Astute watchers would have seen this occurrence a few times in the past. The last time I recall something like this happening was during August 2020. For five trading days, S&P500 moved exponentially higher whilst VIX jumped from 20 to above 30. S&P500 then reversed quickly and wiped out all the gains within a couple of days. ➤ I'm not expecting the above outcome with imminent Inflation data on 13th Dec and the Fed interest rate decision on 14th Dec. The relationship with the VIX and S&P500 should snap back very quickly. Perhaps what is happening is that there are big bets by both Bulls and Bears, bidding up the price of volatility. What may happen is a complete fizzle in equity prices with a lack of movement. ➤ I currently hold a -8% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Perhaps people's expectations are getting ahead of themselves.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, DOWN from 2.9% last week according to DVOL data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 24th percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 8th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.87% movement Bearish: 2.4% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 14714 BOT: 13886 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 35% probability we are going to touch previous high 14500 66% probability we are going to touch previous low 14200 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 66% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates 40% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates 13% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
XETR:DAX
by exlux
All About Support, 12th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The S&P500 equity index is holding above the key support level at 390/3900. A confident break below will result in a Change of Character (CHoCH) in the uptrend since the Oct low. ➤ A CHoCH results in a significant pause in the uptrend or a reversal of the trend. ➤ By holding above the support level, there would not be a CHoCH. Hence the bias is for continued upside. ➤ Inflation data on 13th and the Fed interest rate decision on 14th Dec are clear catalysts for price movement. ➤ I currently hold a -17% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Price is set-up perfectly for a binary outcome. I don't want to be heavily involved here.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Where to Now? 9th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm back from my holiday and fully recharged. Since my last technical update, the equity market has made some interesting moves that we need to examine. ➤ Foremost in my mind is of a potential medium term top that has been reached.🔝 I'm using S&P500/SPY as the market proxy. If we look at the market since March 2022, there has been two previous occasions where this scenario has occurred: 29th March and 16th Aug. The VIX fell below 20 and then rebounded higher. S&P500 proceeded to then decline by around -20%. 📉 ➤ This scenario has just played out with the peak on 1st Dec. VIX has bounced higher after falling below 20. IF history repeats/rhymes, we are looking for another 20% drop. 🙀 That would take us down to 330/3300 for the SPY/SPX500. Each drop occurred over a two month period. That would mean both an ugly end to this year and start of the next. ➤ For this to occur, the market will have to counter both the Christmas rally and a historically bullish January. Readers would point out Jan this year as the perfect counter example. ➤ I currently hold a -25% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: History does rhyme...but is it the Bullish or Bearish rhyme?
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
A Mixed Bag, 30th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity prices were all over the place on Tuesday trade. Nasdaq, S&P500 down yet European Indices and Russell 2000 were up. ➤ This is the sort of action you should expect during a consolidation phase. I'm not sure if this will end with prices moving higher or a break of trend and moving lower. We should know shortly, this consolidation phase will not last very long. ➤ My signals are leaning towards the Bearish scenario. However, these are lower conviction trades that can be switched quickly. I think the test of the support level at 390/3900 SPY/SPX will provide some insights (if prices get there). ➤ I remain with -51% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'll be on holidays starting today but its business as usual for my Trading. I will return 8th Dec. I'll take a break from my writings but keep you updated as necessary.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1 Day Later, 29th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Well I did say a reversal in equity prices was imminent...and here we are 1 day later. VIX jumped higher. I have flipped my positions by 180°. ➤ We need to be cautious here. False short signals happen often in a strong up-trending market. Strong momentum can easily flip us back into a Bullish mode. We could also be just moving into a short-term consolidation phase where prices trade more or less sideways. ➤ I feel that I've been chasing my tail this month. My trade signals have proven to have caught the noise. I've been whipsawed out of positions by a large reversal bar that turned hard fought profitable positions to instant losses. The best example being the 10th and now 28th. Although unpalatable, I do expect to go through these conditions throughout the year. ➤ I flipped my positions to -51% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Let's see how prices react at the strong support levels just below.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
EURO STOXX 50 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 EURO STOXX 50 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 3.05% , down from 3.16% from last week. According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 6th percentile, while with VDAX we are on 1st percentile. Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be : In case of bullish - 2.2% In case of bearish - 2.3% With the current IV calculation, we have currently 19.2% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above or below the next channel: TOP: 4077 BOT: 3825 At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week: 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3980 75% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 3900 Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 78% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
TVC:SX5E
by exlux
Reversal Imminent? 28th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price action for most of the equity indices are potentially close to price reversals. An exit signal was given for my long position in EUSTX50 (STOXX50) but not yet a short signal. ➤ For a short signal, I think we need to see a large down bar/candle. This down bar should at a minimum reverse the price gains on 23rd November to offer some bearish conviction. If this does occur, we need to be very cautious as it may be a "false" signal. False short signals happen often when there has been strong momentum to the upside. ➤ As mentioned in my previous post, ideally, if price can extend gains to 410 on the SPY and VIX hits 20, that would offer a more compelling area for shorting given past precedence. ➤ I remain long with a +51% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking for a price reversal. Just a matter of time...
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
⬆️ Break Out, 24th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ On the eve of Thanksgiving, SPY broke out and closed above the recent high by the tiniest of margins. Long only investors will be happy. I'm guessing a few more Turkeys will make it to the dinner table. The sacrifice of the Turkey may be premature if the break out is not confirmed by further Bullish price action post the holiday. 🦃 ➤ VIX is fast approaching the 20 level where it starts to get interesting for the Bears. If the VIX manages to rebound higher, it could mean the end of the Bull run. If we were to follow the 29th March and 16th August examples, then price needs to hit a resistance level too. I have 411/4110 marked for SPY/SPX500. ➤ Note that the up move since the yearly low is NOT a "Change of Character" - see the weekly SPY chart insert. If prices break lower, it confirms that this Bullish move is just a Bear market rally. ➤ I remain long with a +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Not a time to celebrate for the Bulls.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
➕ Stay Positive, 23rd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The sideways movement looks to be resolving to the upside. The SPY/SPX500 is looking to breach and stay above the psychologically important 400/4000 level. VIX has collapsed heading towards the 20 level. ➤ Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) or better known as Trend Followers are a group of institution traders/whales. They are computer driven algorithms that take medium term positions across hundreds of markets. The stronger the trend (up or down) the larger their positions (subject to volatility constraints). I understand these strategies well since I used to work for one of the largest CTAs in the world. ➤ As this Bullish run continues, a major increase in their long equity positions may be starting to trigger. This is exacerbated further with the lower volatility e.g. falling VIX. Lower volatility means the ability to take on larger positions per unit of risk. This buying will be a major support for equities. ➤ I have increased my long exposure to +68%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Stay positive, I'm riding the up trend for now.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
🔪 Chop Chop... 22nd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The sideways movement continues in equities. A Bullish bias still applies although my signals have weakened in its conviction. ➤ Choppy conditions are not ideal for my Strategy. Especially the kind where there is a tight range with high volatility (large up and down swings). This is because a large reversal against my entry will usually force me to exit, resulting in a bigger than average loss. If repeated multiple times, it can cause a pro-longed drawdown in returns. ➤ So far the choppy conditions experienced has been on relatively low volatility. It's not ideal but also not the worst. The good news is that these conditions tend to not last long. Markets will "snap" out of it soon to trend in one direction. ➤ I have reduced my long exposure to +42%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I have a feeling markets are more interested in watching the Football World Cup right now. 🏆
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2
STOXX50 Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 STOXX50 Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.08%, raising from 3.07% of last week , according to VDAX data (DAX Volatility Index which is highly correlated with VOLATILITY INDEX for STOXX) With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 2th percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 4th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.8% movement Bearish: 2.1% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 21.1% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 4050 BOT: 3800 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 27% probability we are going to touch previous low of 3850 78% probability we are going to touch previous high of 3950 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently 80% of the weekly moving averages are in a bullish trend, and a combination of moving averages and oscillators are in 40% bullish stance
VELOCITY:STOXX50
by exlux
📈 Higher Please... 21st November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity prices moved side-ways last week. This is good news for the Bulls. As prices have held within a tight range, there is so far no sign of a "Change of Character" or CHoCH. ➤ The CHoCH concept comes from Wyckoff analysis. It describes an abnormal price bar or set of price bars that moves against the recent price trend. A major pause or a change in trend often results from a CHoCH. I do not see this with the current price action. This would infer Buyers are accumulating equities for a push higher. My trading signals agree as I added long positions across the board in all indices that I trade. ➤ Of course, nothing is set in stone, I'll have my fingers close to the exit button in case price action shows a change in the Bullish narrative. ➤ I currently have +102% long exposure in the market. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: All eyes will be on the Football World Cup but mine are firmly fixed on the Charts. 👀
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro