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Stoxx50

...And Down She Goes, 3rd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If you ever doubted the effectiveness/importance of support and resistance levels/zones, I think that has been put to bed by today's price action in the S&P500 equity index. ➤ All you need is to look at the price action in the past few days. Price has tried valiantly on multiple occasions to overcome the resistance zone. Today saw the ultimate failure. ➤ However, failures like these are not always full gone conclusions. In my analysis of such situations in the past, many times prices have held on to re-ignite the bull charge. The probability of this happening is certainly well below 50% but we shouldn't dismiss it. ➤ At European equity market close I was able to add short positions to hedge my initial long exposure. This did help to offset the majority of the loss. At close of US trading, I exited the long positions and entered small short positions. Portfolio is net short with -34% exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Bears are back in charge but it's not too late for the Bulls to strike back.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
STOXX 50 Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 STOXX 50 Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.3%, increasing from 7.18% of last month. This is currently placing us in the 60th percentile according to ATR and 91th according to VDAX. Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is: BEARISH Candle : 4.89% BULLISH Candle : 4.46% With this in mind we can expect with a close to 12.2% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel: BOT: 3368 TOP: 3888 Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a : 75% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 3630(already happened yesterday) 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 3252
TVC:SX5E
by exlux
Poised to...2nd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yesterday in Australia was the running of the 162nd world-renowned horse race, the "Race That Stops the Nation" - The Melbourne Cup. The blue-ribbon event is a 3200m long-distance race and each horse is handicapped by age, weight and "quality". In theory, due to the handicap, each horse has a fair chance of winning. This year's winner is Gold Trip with odds around 15 to 1 or $1 bet wins $15. The favourite for the race was odds of around 5 to 1. ➤ Just like the Melbourne Cup, it's time for the US Federal Reserve Cup. Whilst the FOMC members are no thoroughbreds, they do seem have staying power with market participants who hang on their every stride. Today, onlookers are poised for the "Rates that Stops the World". Market behaviour is showing nervousness. S&P500 failing at resistance again in the pink zone for three days in-a-row. DAX and STOXX50 in Europe also stopping short of key resistance levels. ➤ I've betted on horses for the fun of it, but when it's serious money like my trading capital, I'm not keen to get too involved. It seems my Strategy agrees given it is not giving any trading signals other than "sit-tight" for now. ➤ My exposure sitting tight at 20% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Place your bets, big winners and losers expected today.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Pause...1st November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Welcome to November. Just two months to go prior to the end of a long but so far successful year. However, there will be a lot of action and many trading opportunities still to come. ➤ Except maybe not for a day or two. As if on queue we have a pause on proceedings. This is to be expected both from a fundamental and technical viewpoint. We are awaiting the important US Interest Rate decision on Wednesday and S&P500 is up against strong resistance (pink zone). ➤ If you are familiar with my trading style, you will know I don't like these 50/50 situations. Prices can break above or falter at the resistance. It's a perfect set-up by the Trading Gods to take your money. They either can hunt down your well-placed stop-loss or trap you against your directional bet. This is especially true when important economic data is released. ➤ My exposure is low right now so I'm quiet relaxed. I did have a go at buying NASDAQ yesterday, but cut the position as price failed to hold well. My overall 20% long exposure remains. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Unless something dramatic happens on Tuesday, my positioning will remain the same. I'll be waiting for the fireworks display on Wednesday to show the path forward.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Time for a Pause? 31st October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 leapt higher to the upper resistance zone highlighted in pink. This is probably the best opportunity for price to take a pause or reverse downwards. A clear break above the zone will give the Bulls impetus to push higher as there is little to no resistance left until the top of the double-bottom formation as explored in a previous post. ➤ VIX is approaching the pink zone as well where reversals have occurred. This will add weight to the Bearish argument. We will know soon enough with key economic data/policy decisions this week including US employment, manufacturing and interest rates. ➤ I closed my ill-timed NASDAQ short exposure and also cut my long exposures in half. Leaving an overall low 20% long exposure. This will change quickly if prices reverse course. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Inflexion point incoming?
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
We are Many, 28th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ One thing I like about trading indices is that I don't have to deal with individual stock risk. A reasonably diversified portfolio will do the trick too. We have seen some major moves in the price of mega cap stocks this earnings season. Meta, Netflix, Amazon to just name a few. Overall, at the index level, they were pretty much non-events. The Many overcame the Individual. ➤ With the exception of tech, indices have overcome the bad individual stocks moves. This lends to a sense of bullish resilience. Something we probably haven't seen for a while. Does this mean that this bullish bounce is more sustainable or simply a case of "better" macro-economic factors such as a potential easing of interest rate rises have temporarily overshadowed bearish proceedings? ➤ I added a small short exposure in NASDAQ whilst keeping my longs in S&P500 and DJIA. An overall 30% long exposure. This will change quickly if prices reverse course. The S&P500 is sitting on short-term support. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Major earnings news is over...back to the macro-news grind.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
VIX is in the MIX, 27th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price pushed higher once more but was unable to hold most of the gains. More often than not, this bearish looking daily reversal candle is not bearish at all. Buyers tend to bid it back higher. ➤ Price is approaching the next line of resistance. If successful in overcoming that hurdle, the next hurdle is some distance away at 417 on the SPY. That is 9% higher from here. ➤ The VIX (equity fear index) is contracting quickly well below my panic level of 30. If it keeps falling, it will soon hit the zone where things get interesting. This is the area where in previous months equity prices have reversed downwards and VIX rebounded higher. More often than not, the subsequent expansion in VIX has ended with equity prices setting a new low. ➤ I remain with 40% long exposure in US indices, looking for further upside in the short-term. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Keep an eye on the VIX.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Double Bottom? 26th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price pushed strongly higher through resistance. After-hours trading is showing weakness due to earnings releases from Google & MSFT. ➤ With today's action, it is probably right to say the market structure has formed a double bottom formation (one could argue a small double bottom also occured with left/right bottom on 30 Sep/13 Oct). The larger structure has a left bottom on 17th Jun low and right bottom on 13th Oct low. If true, the first price target for the larger structure is the high at the peak on 16th Aug, price of 431 on the SPY. We are 12% away below that level. ➤ Most US/Europe indices have overcome short-term resistance levels. ➤ I added 40% long exposure in US indices, looking for further upside in the short-term. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Double-bottom formations are generally pretty reliable. Let's see how this plays out with the positive expectancy of US mid-term elections and the seasonal Christmas-rally.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Resistance is Futile, 25th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm not a nerdy Star Trek fan but it seems the phrase about resistance is appropriate here. For the S&P500, price is challenging the upper ceiling of the range that has unfolded from the start of October. ➤ A higher high has developed due to the temporary intrusion above the resistance level. This is a basic requirement to confirm a longer term trend change. A major higher low is now required. ➤ The bluechip DJIA (DOW30) is leading the charge higher. This is a bit suspect given that you would expect the riskier indices such as the NASDAQ to lead in a bullish environment. This may be a temporary lag but we need to keep an eye on it. ➤ I now hold zero exposure having exited my S&P500 position at resistance. I don't like to play when prices stop at support or resistance levels. More often than not, prices reverse course rather than break through. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm looking for a bottoming VIX. If this occurs, I will jump in to short the market. If prices keep elevating I will miss out but I won't be kicking myself for it. Is Resistance really futile?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Whipsaw, 24th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If the chart is looking congested, that's because it is. This is due to the whipsawing, range bound, choppy conditions. I think I've ran out of other descriptions...coiling maybe. I'm pretty sure market-makers are having a good time of it and perhaps day traders too...although the intra-day volatility and news flow, it may be hard to handle. ➤ With such conditions, it is probably wise to reduce risk and sit on your hands rather than being tempted to do something rash. That's exactly what I've been doing. There's been numerous times where a potential sustained bearish move looked to be on the cards but reversed course to snuff out that opportunity. An eager beaver would be licking multiple wounds from any pre-emptive strikes. ➤ That being said, price structures on all major equity indices in the US and Europe that I trade are almost back in sync. This simply means, once a trade opportunity arises, I will most likely be able to add risk simultaneously in multiple indices, hence, build a moderate to high conviction position at the portfolio level. Above average profits or losses should be expected. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure for now. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Coiling price action, poised to strike.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Range or Trend? 21st October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Without wanting to sound like a broken record, prices are still treading carefully around the important support/resistance level. ➤ That being said, the Bearish picture is progressively getting clearer. Not enough yet to pull any triggers but very close. Here's why and why not: ➤ S&P500 price once again rejected the opportunity to stay above our key level at 371. Finishing near the daily low and printing a bearish looking candlestick. ➤ We can count the recent peak on 18th Oct as another lower high. The classic definition of a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows remains intact. ➤ VIX continues to contract. Now below 30, out of the panic zone. Contractions usually lead to higher equity prices. Not so in the last few days. This needs a resolution to clear up the overall bearish picture. I am watching this as a determining factor. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure but will change drastically soon. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices are trending down but also staying within a range. Most signs show bearish continuation. Easy to get whipsawed here.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Trapped, 20th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices continue to dance around the key support/resistance levels. This time falling under my key level. ➤ It's not the only index doing this dance. STOXX50 is sitting right under the short-term resistance at 3484. On the other hand, DAX is hovering above the 12670 support. This also holds true for DJIA and NASDAQ, the former below and the latter above their respective key levels. This is not sustainable. They will need to decide on which side of the fence they belong. ➤ I'm now leaning towards the Bear case. I'm not acting on it right now as my short-term Index Trading Strategy hasn't sent a Short signal. However, my medium-term equity signal is threatening to flash RED and I've entered a Short trade for my long/short individual stock trading strategy. Timing is never perfect on these but the overall bias is there. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure but will change drastically soon. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: The dance continues in these choppy and volatile conditions. Be agile and don't get trapped sitting on the wrong side of the fence.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
🟰 Support & Resistance, 19th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Today's price action is showing the importance of support and resistance levels. At market close, you can see the price just holding a key level after another eventful day. Price gapped higher at open, it then dropped to fill the that gap and then recovered. After hours trading is showing further upside pressure post Netflix earnings results. ➤ The continued Bullish case would be for prices to overcome the next level of resistance at the 379/380 area on the SPY. This would set a higher high. ➤ The Bearish case would be the inability for it to hold that resistance level and/or close below the 371 level where price closed. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure. ➤ Conclusion: Choppy conditions with supports and resistance levels in play. Directional/Trending trades will be difficult unless price clears these areas. Mean-reversion trades work best here.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Chop Chop, 18th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices did at U-turn (again) and reversed all of Friday's losses with Financials/Banks leading the way. We are back in a ranging market with this yo-yo type action. Prices may attempt to move higher to the top of the larger range if VIX continues to contract. ➤ I took profits on my European long positions as exit signals were given by my Strategy. I added a small long position in S&P500. ➤ I'm long with +20% exposure. I may add more US exposure if prices weaken. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I don't know when the chop will stop. It can be a tricky environment to trade especially with such large daily moves.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
EURO STOXX 50 Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 EURO STOXX 50 Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.14%, falling from 4.33% of the last week.(using DAX volatility, which is highly correlated with euro stoxx 50/600) At the same time, its currently place on the 75th percentile based on the ATR calculations. With this in mind, around this percentile, we can expect an average weekly movement from the open price of the candle of: In case of a Bullish movement : 1.94% In case of a Bearish movement : 2.35% With the current volatility point, we have a 19.5% probability that the end of the weekly candle is going close either above of below the next channel: TOP : 3529 BOT : 3235 At the same time, there is currently a 75% probability that we can touch the previous high of the weekly candle 3450 And there is a 28% probability that we can touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3250 Lastly, currently the rating from the moving average is around -78% indicating a very bearish trend(and we can confirm this since november 2021)
TVC:SX5E
by exlux
Upside Bias, 17th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Despite the retracement lower on Friday following the Thursday price surge, I am still looking for further upside. This holds true as long as the we don't have a daily close below the lows. As mentioned previously, I am expecting a re-test of the low, this may be that test or it is still to come in the near future. My medium-term outlook (for a few weeks) is also biased upwards. ➤ Clearly we are in a risk-off environment where performance of DJIA > S&P500 > NASDAQ. Therefore, I'm not expecting any long lasting bounce until there is evidence that NASDAQ is taking the lead. Riskier stocks should lead any substantial long-term rebound. ➤ I'm long with +40% exposure all in European indices. I would like to add US exposure but keeping risk low at this juncture is the right call IMO. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Earnings should play a greater role this week and next as all the big names will be releasing results and providing future outlook.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2
Roller-Coaster, 14th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ That was some ride. Pre-CPI markets pumped higher by 1.5% before plummeting post data to -4% for the Nasdaq. Only then to climb back up and finish strongly by over 2%. Similar price action happened on 24th Feb 2022 as the war started in Ukraine. TBH, I expected this movement but certainly not the extent of the volatility. ➤ I initially took off my long DAX position pre-CPI during the pump. DAX was significantly outperforming other indices on the day so I took some profits. That meant I had minimal exposure to the CPI data as I was only net long with 10% exposure. As prices plummeted, there was very minor movement in my portfolio as my long STOXX50 position held up better than my NASDAQ shorts. ➤ By the end of the European trading day, I bought back the DAX position and cut the NASDAQ shorts. Leaving me with +40% long exposure. After US market close, I decided against adding US long positions at this stage given the size of the upward move. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: We may get some continuation of the rally but there should be an attempt of the re-test of the low at some stage.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Risk-Off, 13th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Minor down day in US indices. Pre-market was firmly positive until the PPI (Producer Price Index) numbers were released. It showed persistent inflation in the costs of production. These costs can be passed on to consumers and therefore feeds into CPI/Consumer inflation numbers. ➤ With CPI numbers coming out Thursday/today, we should expect a jump in volatility. I have no idea what the inflation number will be but there are bullish signs that I am willing to take some risk for a potential upside move. ➤ I further reduced my remaining short NASDAQ position to -10% and added long exposure of +40% with STOXX50 and German DAX. An overall small +30% long exposure. I think this is a sensible level of risk use given market conditions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm risk-on for a move higher but also risk-off by taking a lower exposure than previous days. Manage your risks.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Bounce Time? 12th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ US indices returns were wide spread. With DJIA finishing flat and Nasdaq continuing to fall. Large intra-day gains were unable to hold up. S&P500 hit a new low but the daily close held above the previous yearly low set on 30th Sept that can be considered as temporary support. VIX may also be peaking. There is a potential for a good sized bounce. CPI/Inflation data out Thursday should define where markets are headed in the very short-term. ➤ I locked in some profits by cutting positions in SPX500 and DJ30. My short exposure is -40%, composed of NASDAX and STOXX50. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Price action Wednesday/today prior to CPI data release is crucial for my next move. I'm leaning towards a bounce and may turn bullish.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
💤 No Hibernation...11th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ...for the Bears as equity prices continue to fall in an orderly manner. The NASDAQ closing on a fresh new low, S&P500 not far behind. That being said, we did see prices reverse aggressively when the S&P500 made a new daily closing low on 30th Sep, so there's that possibility once again. ➤ Across in Europe, the indices couldn't hold large gains after gapping down lower. I added a small short position in STOXX50 as prices may play catch-up and go back to test the yearly low. ➤ I increased my short exposure to -80%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices look to continue their march lower. The worrying sign is that it is very orderly and shows no capitulation. That's when a more permanent bottom is usually found.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
🕺 Dancing Around Support, 8th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities took a dive towards the lower support level. Note that this support level has already been violated by a daily close to set a yearly low on 30th Sep. This makes it less reliable as a line of defence. Still, price did bounce off that level prior to end Friday trade. ➤ The momentum is with the Bears but we should tread carefully around these levels. Price could just as easily reverse course if there is hesitation to push lower. ➤ The European indices did not give me an additional short signal (as yet). They have bounced harder off the bottom than US indices and have held those gains much better. ➤ I reduced my exposure to -60% to take some profit prior to the weekend. Politicians/Govt Officials tend to do their best work on the weekend. Prices can gap either way if something happens. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices are dancing around support. A small solo dance to celebrate my wins but I'm in no mood to Tango.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
👀 Look Out Below, 7th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ There was a lack of follow-through by the Bulls as prices retreated Thursday, giving up yesterday's gains. This may just be a pause in proceedings but with VIX moving into my panic zone once more, I'm inclined to take a bearish stance. ➤ If I'm right, I'm looking for prices to test the yearly low with a potential higher low or a more bearish break below as outlined by the chart. There should be a subsequent bounce but that is getting way ahead of myself. My crystal ball is extremely short-sighted. 🔮 ➤ If I'm wrong, I will take a loss and most likely reverse the position to take a bullish stance. ➤ I opened short positions across US equities SPX500, NSDQ100 and DJ30. I am watching European equities closely to add further short exposure. My current exposure is -120%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: US employment numbers out Friday maybe the deciding factor. 📈📉
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
Sidelining, 6th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Bears tried to push back the charging Bull and ended without success. Price bounced off the support line strongly. Clearly there are buyers at these levels. VIX contracted further. Is the panic over? ➤ I'm of the opinion that we may see the price rise a little more followed by a down move as a secondary test of the yearly low before another leg up. It is unclear to me if the down move will make a new low or a higher low. We may end up with something that looks like the price action in mid-Jun. A temporary sideways market. ➤ My current exposure is 0%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines, looking to trade a potential sideways market.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro