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Stoxx50

Chop Chop, 18th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices did at U-turn (again) and reversed all of Friday's losses with Financials/Banks leading the way. We are back in a ranging market with this yo-yo type action. Prices may attempt to move higher to the top of the larger range if VIX continues to contract. ➤ I took profits on my European long positions as exit signals were given by my Strategy. I added a small long position in S&P500. ➤ I'm long with +20% exposure. I may add more US exposure if prices weaken. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I don't know when the chop will stop. It can be a tricky environment to trade especially with such large daily moves.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
EURO STOXX 50 Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 EURO STOXX 50 Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.14%, falling from 4.33% of the last week.(using DAX volatility, which is highly correlated with euro stoxx 50/600) At the same time, its currently place on the 75th percentile based on the ATR calculations. With this in mind, around this percentile, we can expect an average weekly movement from the open price of the candle of: In case of a Bullish movement : 1.94% In case of a Bearish movement : 2.35% With the current volatility point, we have a 19.5% probability that the end of the weekly candle is going close either above of below the next channel: TOP : 3529 BOT : 3235 At the same time, there is currently a 75% probability that we can touch the previous high of the weekly candle 3450 And there is a 28% probability that we can touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3250 Lastly, currently the rating from the moving average is around -78% indicating a very bearish trend(and we can confirm this since november 2021)
TVC:SX5E
by exlux
Upside Bias, 17th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Despite the retracement lower on Friday following the Thursday price surge, I am still looking for further upside. This holds true as long as the we don't have a daily close below the lows. As mentioned previously, I am expecting a re-test of the low, this may be that test or it is still to come in the near future. My medium-term outlook (for a few weeks) is also biased upwards. ➤ Clearly we are in a risk-off environment where performance of DJIA > S&P500 > NASDAQ. Therefore, I'm not expecting any long lasting bounce until there is evidence that NASDAQ is taking the lead. Riskier stocks should lead any substantial long-term rebound. ➤ I'm long with +40% exposure all in European indices. I would like to add US exposure but keeping risk low at this juncture is the right call IMO. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Earnings should play a greater role this week and next as all the big names will be releasing results and providing future outlook.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2
Roller-Coaster, 14th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ That was some ride. Pre-CPI markets pumped higher by 1.5% before plummeting post data to -4% for the Nasdaq. Only then to climb back up and finish strongly by over 2%. Similar price action happened on 24th Feb 2022 as the war started in Ukraine. TBH, I expected this movement but certainly not the extent of the volatility. ➤ I initially took off my long DAX position pre-CPI during the pump. DAX was significantly outperforming other indices on the day so I took some profits. That meant I had minimal exposure to the CPI data as I was only net long with 10% exposure. As prices plummeted, there was very minor movement in my portfolio as my long STOXX50 position held up better than my NASDAQ shorts. ➤ By the end of the European trading day, I bought back the DAX position and cut the NASDAQ shorts. Leaving me with +40% long exposure. After US market close, I decided against adding US long positions at this stage given the size of the upward move. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: We may get some continuation of the rally but there should be an attempt of the re-test of the low at some stage.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Risk-Off, 13th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Minor down day in US indices. Pre-market was firmly positive until the PPI (Producer Price Index) numbers were released. It showed persistent inflation in the costs of production. These costs can be passed on to consumers and therefore feeds into CPI/Consumer inflation numbers. ➤ With CPI numbers coming out Thursday/today, we should expect a jump in volatility. I have no idea what the inflation number will be but there are bullish signs that I am willing to take some risk for a potential upside move. ➤ I further reduced my remaining short NASDAQ position to -10% and added long exposure of +40% with STOXX50 and German DAX. An overall small +30% long exposure. I think this is a sensible level of risk use given market conditions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm risk-on for a move higher but also risk-off by taking a lower exposure than previous days. Manage your risks.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Bounce Time? 12th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ US indices returns were wide spread. With DJIA finishing flat and Nasdaq continuing to fall. Large intra-day gains were unable to hold up. S&P500 hit a new low but the daily close held above the previous yearly low set on 30th Sept that can be considered as temporary support. VIX may also be peaking. There is a potential for a good sized bounce. CPI/Inflation data out Thursday should define where markets are headed in the very short-term. ➤ I locked in some profits by cutting positions in SPX500 and DJ30. My short exposure is -40%, composed of NASDAX and STOXX50. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Price action Wednesday/today prior to CPI data release is crucial for my next move. I'm leaning towards a bounce and may turn bullish.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
💤 No Hibernation...11th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ...for the Bears as equity prices continue to fall in an orderly manner. The NASDAQ closing on a fresh new low, S&P500 not far behind. That being said, we did see prices reverse aggressively when the S&P500 made a new daily closing low on 30th Sep, so there's that possibility once again. ➤ Across in Europe, the indices couldn't hold large gains after gapping down lower. I added a small short position in STOXX50 as prices may play catch-up and go back to test the yearly low. ➤ I increased my short exposure to -80%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices look to continue their march lower. The worrying sign is that it is very orderly and shows no capitulation. That's when a more permanent bottom is usually found.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
🕺 Dancing Around Support, 8th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities took a dive towards the lower support level. Note that this support level has already been violated by a daily close to set a yearly low on 30th Sep. This makes it less reliable as a line of defence. Still, price did bounce off that level prior to end Friday trade. ➤ The momentum is with the Bears but we should tread carefully around these levels. Price could just as easily reverse course if there is hesitation to push lower. ➤ The European indices did not give me an additional short signal (as yet). They have bounced harder off the bottom than US indices and have held those gains much better. ➤ I reduced my exposure to -60% to take some profit prior to the weekend. Politicians/Govt Officials tend to do their best work on the weekend. Prices can gap either way if something happens. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices are dancing around support. A small solo dance to celebrate my wins but I'm in no mood to Tango.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
👀 Look Out Below, 7th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ There was a lack of follow-through by the Bulls as prices retreated Thursday, giving up yesterday's gains. This may just be a pause in proceedings but with VIX moving into my panic zone once more, I'm inclined to take a bearish stance. ➤ If I'm right, I'm looking for prices to test the yearly low with a potential higher low or a more bearish break below as outlined by the chart. There should be a subsequent bounce but that is getting way ahead of myself. My crystal ball is extremely short-sighted. 🔮 ➤ If I'm wrong, I will take a loss and most likely reverse the position to take a bullish stance. ➤ I opened short positions across US equities SPX500, NSDQ100 and DJ30. I am watching European equities closely to add further short exposure. My current exposure is -120%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: US employment numbers out Friday maybe the deciding factor. 📈📉
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
Sidelining, 6th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Bears tried to push back the charging Bull and ended without success. Price bounced off the support line strongly. Clearly there are buyers at these levels. VIX contracted further. Is the panic over? ➤ I'm of the opinion that we may see the price rise a little more followed by a down move as a secondary test of the yearly low before another leg up. It is unclear to me if the down move will make a new low or a higher low. We may end up with something that looks like the price action in mid-Jun. A temporary sideways market. ➤ My current exposure is 0%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines, looking to trade a potential sideways market.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Thank the UN, 5th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The United Nations (UN) is meant to save humanity from itself. I guess a floundering equity market does meet that remit especially with rumours of Credit Suisse troubles. Also, think of the millions of Baby Boomers who are retiring every day. They need to sell off their risky assets (i.e. equity portfolios) to buy safer alternatives like bonds for their retirement. We certainly don't need the richest generation in history begging for government handouts. 4% interest rates look pretty decent especially when the inflation fight is won. ➤ The resulting short squeeze was quite breathtaking. Shorts did have an opportunity to take down their risk when the rally ceased momentarily intraday, but I'm guessing, many didn't or even added to their positions. Lesson: Don't fight the UN. ➤ This squeeze seems to have some more juice left. The resistance level is all the way up at 393 for the S&P500/SPY. The VIX has dropped below my panic level of 30. This may continue to drop until we get a sizeable correction. ➤ My current exposure is 0%. I got out too early but IMHO it was still the right decision at the time. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Make a donation to the various UN programmes since they saved your bacon.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Old Tricks, 4th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Wallstreet pulled out the oldest trick in the trading book to start off a new month: a fake breakout. A breakout occurs when price confidently breaks through a support or resistance level and closes beyond that level. This is what occurred on 30th Sept to set a new yearly low for the S&P500. Once the price breaks out, it tends to keep moving in that direction except when it doesn't. That's why Trading is so difficult. ➤ Luckily for me, the breakout faded and I recouped a lot of the recent losses. I took off most of my positions too. The price is back in the chop zone between supports. I don't particularly fancy choppy conditions. ➤ The Bulls will be keen to point out this price action is laying the foundation for a double-bottom formation. It's too early to tell. Certainly, there is pent up buying. This type of formation is usually symmetrical i.e. the left and the right bottoms look similar. This would mean it will need to spend some time around the support zones to build the right bottom. ➤ My current exposure is +20% in NASDAQ. I'll give it a day or so more to catch up to other indices as it lagged on this surge. I don't want to be involved holding European indices at the moment as they are trading below the resistance level. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: New month, new beginnings...it certainly is so far.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
S&P 500 to outperform Eurostoxx 50 as recession hits Europe?The S&P 500 index may perform noticeably better than the European stock market ( STOXX 50 ) in the event that the European Union experiences a sharp economic downturn. The S&P 500 to EURO STOXX 50 ratio, which gauges the relative strength of the US stock market in comparison to the EU stock market, has been largely flat so far in 2022. In the past, when the Euro Area economy contracted faster than that of the United States, the S&P 500 index significantly outperformed its European counterpart. The S&P 500 gained 50% more than the EURO STOXX 50 between August 2001 and December 2003, at a time when the Euro Area's GDP growth was materially lower to that of the United States. The S&P 500 outperformed the EURO STOXX 50 by 82% between May 2007 and October 2012, as the EU economy lagged far behind the US. More recently, from October 2017 to July 2020, the US stock market recorded another period of outperformance relative to the European stock market, with the S&P 500 rising 56% relative to the EURO STOXX 50 amid a global economic downturn and the pandemic outbrake. What is coming up next? The EURO STOXX 50 could enter another period of relative underperformance relative to the S&P 500 if another significant economic slowdown occurs in Europe due to the impact of the energy crisis and inflation on consumption and investments. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
SP:SPX
by Capitalcom
Breakdown, 3rd October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I was looking for market participants to do some window dressing on Friday to make a horrible September end on a positive note. Instead, we saw window selling. Ending with an exclamation mark to show how bad the month was for long only investors. It was a bad end for myself as well. I gave back pretty much all the profits from earlier in the month. ➤ The silver lining was that the VIX hardly budged. This was enough for me to add long SPX500 and DJ30 positions. The obvious risk is increasing exposure when the SPX500 has broken the yearly low. I am keenly aware. However, a systematic trading process only works if we stick to the rules over the long-run. Making subjective decisions based on emotions will only introduce inconsistency. ➤ There are heightened levels of risk. UK pension system is in crisis due to bond yield upheaval. There is a rumour that a large financial entity is having liquidity issues. All this brings back memories of the Lehman collapse and the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. ➤ My current exposure is +100% composed of all 5 indices I trade, SPX500, DJ30, Nasdaq, STOXX50 and DAX. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: New month, new beginnings...
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2
Trapped II 30th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The sequels just keep coming...prices are still stuck in the narrowish support and resistance levels for the S&P500. This time ending right at the support level in contrast to the previous day. If you get the feeling some one is trying to shake you out, that's exactly what it looks like. That being said, a break to the downside would negate this theory. ➤ For the bullish case, I need to see the VIX contract and contract quickly, ideally back below 30. If it's sticky above 30 like the current state of inflation, we probably will see further downside. ➤ My current exposure is +60% composed of Nasdaq, STOXX50 and DAX. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: End of month window dressing please!
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Trapped! 29th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another hugely volatile day. Pre-market conditions were looking disastrous as US indices were south of 1% and European indices were down over 2%. A complete turnaround occurred as bond yields reversed lower. Bond yields have become unhinged and forced central banks to step in to try and control the situation. We should expect such volatility at market extremes but it doesn't make it any easier to sit through. ➤ The bounce off the support level meant prices moved up to the previous support level now acting as resistance. Price is currently trapped between these levels. This may be temporary as prices seem to want to bounce more to least close the last major price gap. ➤ I added a long NASDAQ position. It is acting stronger than most indices having not broken the yearly low. I still hold positions in DAX and EUSTX50 . My exposure is +60%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking for further bounce to relieve extreme oversold conditions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
The Last Defence III, 28th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ No prize for those of you who guessed the title of today's update. It's growing a bit tiresome. As in previous days, prices opened higher and ended lower. As suspected, with VIX moving higher, S&P500 set a new yearly low in the process but was able to close above the support level. ➤ This tiresome behaviour may bring about some Bullish respite. As prices have continually tried to break the support without any convincing level of success. ➤ Further clues for a bullish bounce comes from my long/short equity trading. I trade the components of the Dow30 (DJIA). Some of these stocks are intensely oversold and I entered a long position in one stock. ➤ I also entered small long positions in DAX and EUSTX50. My exposure is +40%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I have dipped my toes in to test the waters. May Last Defence III reign long.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The Last Defence II, 27th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Bulls are being tested for the second day. This time, prices were not supported at higher levels and finished the trading day near the lows. VIX leapt higher again. Things are looking pretty ominous. ➤ I don't know if it's good news or bad news but the daily trading volume is moderate. Although elevated it hasn't really spiked. A spike could signal big players absorbing the selling especially if prices didn't move much on the day. On the other hand, no spike could signal the sellers are not done selling. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I can see potential buying opportunities but I am waiting to for some sort of VIX contraction.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
The Last Defence, 26th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Crucial week ahead for the Bulls to defend the yearly lows. First defensive effort was mounted by the Bulls to finish Friday trade away from the daily low. Price gapped down below the 2nd last level of support. The close of the candle points to continued bearish behaviour in the very short-term. ➤ VIX spiked over 30 again. There is certainly panic selling. The question is if the panic is just starting or will it recede? Further panic will most certainly break the yearly lows. That may snowball. ➤ European markets like the DAX have already succumbed to new yearly lows. ➤ Since I theorised for the Bullish case in my last post, let's talk about the why there is no bottom in sight: ● Employment numbers are still relatively strong. ● Property prices are hovering at all time highs ● Lack of bankruptcies ● Strong US Dollar is creating havoc, Asian and EM currencies have collapsed below multi-decade lows. Currency intervention by Japan and Korea most recently. ● Interest rates moving upwards fast in an unconstrained manner ➤ Some of these factors are starting to jolt a panic response. Others are yet to even show their hand. There are plenty of things that haven't even broken. Somethings need to break for a true bottom to form. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Still waiting on the sidelines. Eager to get back in the action but only the right time! 💯
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Double Bottom? 23rd Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ There's very little insight I can provide with the current price action. VIX is stuck at elevated levels and not moving anywhere. Price is moving lower to the support levels. If you weren't already in a short trade, it isn't the best place to start. If you are looking to buy, prices could continue to move lower. 🤷‍♀️ Risk to reward for new trades are probably in no one's favour. ➤ So, let's instead theorise about a Bullish case at this moment in time. ● War in Ukraine is further entrenched with more troops deployed by Russia. The West will counter. ● Interest rates are going to rise further to 4% or more ● Demand destruction is everywhere. Jobs being lost, company profits falling, consumers tightening. We are looking at a hard landing. ● China is dealing with Covid lockdown fatigue and real estate woes ➤ With all these ugly headlines, S&P500 is still holding above the 17th June low. Has the market sufficiently priced in these outcomes? ➤ On the technicals: You could argue that the leg down from15th Aug is a much less aggressive move than the April down leg. It's a gentler slide in prices. VIX is reflective of this by being stuck at a comparatively lower level. ➤ Given these conditions continue to hold, price could form a classic double-bottom and a major bullish move is not far off in the distant future. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Still waiting on the sidelines. Eager to get back in the action but only the right time! 💯
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
It Broke Down, 22nd Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities decided break down but that's not what I'm concerned about. It's the VIX...has it literally broken down❓ 🛠 Apart from spiking to the panic level to 30 (as I define it), it did very little on a big down day. ➤ Perhaps VIX does make sense within the context of the price action. As prices have moved consistently lower, VIX has been elevating in a steady manner and just touched panic levels post FOMC announcement. If we look at the 3 big bearish candles since the 16th August peak, today's candle was the smallest. This contraction in the size of the candle is probably the only good news for the Bulls and is preventing a huge panic move (so far). ➤ We should also note that the recent price gap was essentially closed due to a price spike...I'll stop with the Gap jokes too. ➤ I stayed on the sidelines and look to do so a bit longer given VIX's unconvincing behaviour. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Price is heading toward support. Will the buyer step in?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
3
No Persons Land, 21st Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices held above the immediate lows but overall still drifting lower. It is stuck in between support and resistance zones. This is fitting behaviour given the USD Fed Interest Rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. ➤ VIX is not giving much away. Still trading below the recent peak but at elevated levels. ➤ Market makers and intra-day traders must be enjoying the erratic market movements. Prices haven't really gone anywhere these couple of days but volatility is high. I'm happy to stay on the sidelines and avoid being whipsawed. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Fed decision will not only decide on the level of interest rates but also the next level prices will move: to support or resistance.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Feeling the Gap, 20th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 📉 GAPs are unfashionable and it tends to get closed. Well, that gap has almost closed and I'm not FEELING great! ➤ Big reversal in markets as equities bounced after once again gapping lower at open. Price is heading back to the support level (that should be re-labeled as resistance). ➤ I had strong convictions that the gap will be filled. Despite that, I quit my long positions at a loss. This was to protect capital as I saw the possibility of a binary outcome: either VIX would explode higher or collapse lower. I don't like binary outcomes despite being only 40% wrong most of the time! ➤ As a result, I'll be watching from the sidelines until after the Fed rate decision on Wednesday. I'll get over the loss by then. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking forward to the next profitable trade opportunity and learning from another loss.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2