a weekly price action market recap and outlook - tesla #2Good evening and i hope you are well.
I did not adjust my wave outlook since 2024-02-11 and so far it's pretty perfect. My thesis is we are in w3 and this will be a treat. Late and perma bulls are still long and or will buy 180/175. So if this bear channel breaks down, the short covering will be epic.
Market was/is at the strongest and this stock is in a broad bear channel. The next months the earnings will deteriorate and then we will see where the market thinks this stock is fairly priced. All bubbles pop or deflate, this is deflating. Elon won't even save it with 69 new AI announcements for the reminder of the year. If sh** really hit's the fan, he will be margin called because of x financing and this will fuel the sell off further.
bull case: Bulls pray that 175 will hold and they buy the double bottom. If it holds, they want to touch the upper bear channel line around 240 again but i would expect 200 to be bigger resistance then.
bear case: Price action wise was this a wedge bear flag which broke down and now market will test 175 if there are more buyers than sellers. Not rocket science so far.
short term: wait for market reaction at 175 and follow the trend there. we might go sideways first but i think the general market sell off will accelerate over the next weeks
medium-long term: down - what would change that? trading above 270
STR
XRP vs XLMWho is gonna be stronger?💪 This is comparison XRPUSDT/XLMUSDT, so if the:
*price is going up, it means XRP is stronger than XLM
*price is going down, it means XRP is weaker than XLM
Ripple is breaking up the yellow triangle which was formed by consolidation after the bullish impulse move, so together it created sort of bull flag and we are just breaking out of it. Target of flag pattern is confluencing with 0.854 fib retracement of the whole range. To sum it up, it looks to me that in the following weeks/months, Ripple could be stronger than Stellar with some pullbacks along the way (as shown by the lime path). What's your take?
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XLM Cup & Handle Target On the 1 month chart The XLM Cup & Handle Minimum Target hits the 0.61 Trend based fib extension exactly with a measurement taken from solid candle to solid candle from the base of the cup to the neck of the top of the cup.
The 1 month chart has RSI hidden bullish divergence, the candle closes in 10 days.
Major support level of 0.23 FIB level holding as of now after being rejected from the 0.32 FIB level
A clear indicator that the Trend based fib extension levels are being respected.
Thanks for looking!
STELLAR LUMENS (STR/BTC|XLM/BTC) LONG TERM MOVETechnicals:
Weekly EMAs are crossing and momentum is shifting towards the bulls
Monthly BBands are squeezed tight and significant accumulation has taken place over the past couple of months and the BBands are ready to expand for a parabolic move
Descending wedge repeating fractal pattern
Inverse H&S pattern formed on the daily period (same at the start of the previous 2017 cycle)
BTC Ratio Targets:
TP1 = +- 0.00002100
TP2 = +- 0.00002800
TP3 = +- 0.00003500
TP4 = +- 0.00004600
TP5 = +- 0.00006200
Stellar ready for interstellar travelXLMBTC is the largest base I have ever seen in crypto. The weirdest and largest at the same time... This could seriously reach the stars once it gets going. I think there are some pretty big forces behind stellar, especially as Jed McCalleb has managed to escape from the wrath of the SEC.
Stellar is one of those coins that had a massive run in 2017, its supply also increased massively, was the only one that held strong without capitulating for so long... And was the only such large coin with such few listings. Clearly a lot have changed since then, tons of listings, tons of news pairs and so on... And I think this will have a massive impact on the price. Jed is also a very rich and powerful man and they are trying to do quite a lot of stuff to send it much higher. In terms of price, this is more than ready.
The two lines are the places i'd sell some short term. Looking fantastic and I don't think the pump will be delayed for much longer, especially when it makes a new ATH vs USD.
Stellar dancing with the devil 4Will Stellar finally meet the devil @ 0.666? If we break this HUGE triangle up, I think there is chance for run to 0.682. SL is local low. Target is height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY STOP-LIMIT - SL).
RRR 5.8. Invalidated when SL level hit (even if BUY STOP-LIMIT not filled before)
XLM STR 12h Time to close longs?A month and a half have passed since the publication of the previous idea for XML STR Stellar Lumens
Since that time, the price of XLMUSDT clearly, according to the arrows, first fell by -20%, and then increased by +150%, check the link here, everything is for you)
In the digest "Bitcoin weekend" №11, you actively voted for the analysis of the XLMUSDT pair, and we saw it and took it into account.
Therefore, I ask: for your review, the future prospects in the XLMUSD pair, as we see.
Now, in the chart, have formed a strong resistance level of $0.525 and the price movement towards it will be considered a very positive scenario.
Only after the price is firmly fixed above this level, it will be possible to start talking about updating the highs of this year.
If in the coming days there is no growth, and the price of XLMUSD drops below $0.40 , then with a high probability we will face a fall.
The first targets from below are the $0.271-0.291 zone
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Since 2016, we have been analyzing and trading the cryptocurrency market.
We transform our knowledge, trading moods and experience into ideas. Each "like under the idea" boosts the level of our happiness by 0.05%. If we help you to be calmer and richer - help us to be happier :)
Will Stellar finally break out?This is aggressive entry in anticipation of the triangle break out in direction of long-term trend. The target is rough estimate and will be fine-tuned later (once the triangle is really broken). RRR around 5 anyway. Valid until SL level hit (even if BUY STOP-LIMIT not filled before).
Cheers!
XLM - 4h. Buyers are preparing for test $0.36For almost a month, the XLM market continued to correct a strong wave of growth, which buyers organized in early January. The price of XLM was moving smoothly in the global triangle.
On January 27, buyers managed to break through the top line of the consolidation triangle and start a new wave of growth.
As you can see in the chart, the main problem of buyers - the mark of $0.36. It is in this mark that sellers aggressively changed the direction of price movements three times.
However, cbuyres support is so strong that it allows you to continue the attack of this mark every time.
At the moment, buyers are preparing to break and consolidate above the mark of $0.326 to continue to grow to $0.36.
The critical point of this scenario is the range of $0.307-0.31. After breaking it, sellers will take the initiative in the XLM market and lower the price to $0.276. This scenario will lead to continued correction in the XLM market.
But what are the global prospects for this coin? See in our global idea:
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XLM STR 6h There is potential for strong growthIn the previous medium-term idea of the XLMUSDT pair, we asked: will Stellar take the place of Ripple which is in the swamp of negativity.
It is difficult to answer this question unequivocally, but we can say with confidence that the previous idea worked out all the targets from above, reaching a high above $0.36 in the shortest possible time.
Now the chart shows that interest in the XLM STR coin has not disappeared.
It is consolidated and "squeezed the spring", which can shoot up very hard.
If in the near future the price of XLMUSD is not allowed to move below $0.234, then it will be possible to take a long in anticipation of a strong rebound upwards.
A break of the white trend line in the zone of $0.3 will only accelerate the growth , the upper target of which can be expected at $0.525.
_______________________________
Since 2016, we have been analyzing and trading the cryptocurrency market.
We transform our knowledge, trading moods and experience into ideas. Each "like under the idea" boosts the level of our happiness by 0.05% . If we help you to be calmer and richer - help us to be happier :)
XLM-4h. Are buyers preparing for test $0.5?The situation on the XLM market looks quite harmonious. If EOS has lost its signs of life after yesterday, then XLM buyers are holding the price of the coin quite firmly.
In fact, from January 7, the correction of the previous wave of growth in the XLM market continues. The price moves in the white channel at reduced volumes. Even yesterday's fall of the XLM cannot be called a collapse, as every 4 hour candle was closed with a pin down.
The frantic demand for the coin was confirmed today, when buyers were able to fully absorb the previous wave of decline. The test of BTC sellers of the critical range $33600-34400 did not affect the XLM market in any way.
Buyers are preparing to punch the correction channel falling up. The final signal for the purchase will be a breakthrough and fixing the price above the range of $0.3-0.32. In this case, the next target of buyers is in the $0.5 mark.
An alternative test scenario of the $ 0.23-0.24 range is possible during a new wave of BTC falls with a target of $ 26,200. However, even in this scenario, XLM looks attractive for growth.
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We create both short-term ideas (for a local understanding of the market situation) and medium-term forecasts of price movements.
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STRUSD (XLM): Rising flagSTRUSD (XLM): Rising flag
Buying in the area of 0.2915 - 0.2395
Targets in the region of 0.3495 - 0.446
Stop, fixing below 0.226
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Waiting for your comment, what do you think about this?
STRUSD (XLM)STRUSD (XLM)
Buy in the region of 0.153 - 0.1136
Goal 1 - 0.197
Goal 2 - 0.272
Goal 3 - 0.446
Goal 4 - 0.610
Stop, fixing below 0.1
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Waiting for your comment, what do you think about this?
XLM STR 12h It hurts to fall from a heightStellar STR Lumen XLM with his shot upwards confirmed that the project has no opinion.
And for more than 3 years, it has been repeating all the movements after Ripple.
By the way, we recommend you to familiarize with our fresh XRP idea.
The most positive thing that can be expected from Stellar is a rebound to $0.19.
Globally, XLM is waiting for a fall at least to the levels $0.12-0.1.
We will update the idea further if we see interest in it in the form of likes and comments.
Don't trade illusions, but follow the trend.
XLMBTC 1D, Stellar finally warming up before surging to ATH?If you have ever wondered is stellar lumens, sleeping giant finally waking up ? The answer would be yes without any doubts! When we zoom out and witness the bigger picture, we have a more broader view on current STR/BTC (XLM/BTC) situation. After 1.5 yearly bear market we witnessing the signs of reversal, Stellar holder well the 422 satoshi area, which was multiyear support zone, Structure remained bullish, no new violent lows acquired.
Currently trading above 200MA daily , which is very important, and haven't been seen for a long time since BTC pair struggle. Would important to add that currently we are facing one of the diagonal and horizontal resistance claster, right in 900-960 Satoshi zone, those resistance are important to pass and they include both Gann and liquidity supply clasters. If stellar keeps the momentum and successesfully passes through that resistance zone, 1100 -1200 satoshi area is the next to pay attention too. Once Stellar reclaims second claster, it gets very strong 0.618 gann diagonal support and leaves the toughest resistance claster since the downtrend below, aiming to test higher liquidity supplies, leading the price straight to 0.5 zone into 2300-2500 Satoshi, beyond those targets we highly likely will witness ATH. Time wise if we get second coaster conquered till 20 June, odds on fast parabolic advance increases greatly.
Thank you for reading, trade safe, keep stops in place!
Stellar plotting bullrunsPlotting possible bull cycles for Stellar, this is under the assumption that a death cross will bounce the price up as can be previously seen, which then led to a golden cross. It can be seen there consistently is an 'initial pump' which leads to a larger pump. Will this occur again? If so I have plotted the initial pump on chart. Happy Trading!