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BTC-DAILY-TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESSDAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action, triggered a long white candle, which, usually is a BULLISH signal... but the failure to cross over and close above the CLUSTER (39'700-39'900 area) triggered new selling pressure which once again cross underthe ongoing daily support trend line, currently around 39'300 ! Interesting to note that the CLUSTER , also coincides roughly with the junction of both downtrend and uptrend resistance lines @ 39'800, respectively in red and green on this daily chart and also the TWIST in the daily clouds (very thin = very fragile, currently @40'770-41'025. On the downside, a daily closing below 38'714 (middle of the yesterday long white candle) would make a DARK CLOUD COVER add further selling pressure over the upcoming trading sessions, in reopening the door for lower levels towards the former congestion bottom 37'500-37'000 ahead of the 35'000 area. lower daily closing level seen at the end of January. RSI @ 45.90 LAGGING LINE below the clouds and below the Kijun-Sen ! Global daily picture is showing a broad triangle pattern in progress (red and green lines) and remains BEARISH ! 4 HOURS (H4) The upside breakout of both Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen has been short lived ! Indeed, this bull trap breakout has been invalidated by a long black candle (bearish engulfing pattern) which pushed the Bitcoin again below the Tenkan-Sen. In this H4 time frame, the CLOUDS resistance area (40'145-41'250) remains the major resistance area to break in order to neutralise this ongoing downward pressure. A successful sustainable recovery above this area would force to a view reassessment of the EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO calling for lower levels; a failure to hold above the ongoing short term support trend line, currently @ 37'750 ahead of the former low @ 37'193 would confirm further downside towards the 35'000 level and lower. 1 HOUR (H1) Hourly clouds support area (38'469-38'317) currently under attack and a failure to hold above the hourly clouds would also be the first short term signal for further downside. On the other hand, if the BTC managed to hold above the hourly clouds we can see a potential short term recovery towards 38'800-39'230 having still in mind that such kind of price action should still be seen as A TACTICAL CORRECTIVE MOVE, in a STRATEGIC BEAR TREND and therefore, managed accordingly in term of Risk Reward Ratio (trailing stop loss !) If you like my analysis, please do not forget firstly to like it and if you do not follow me yet on TradingView, please also add IRONMAN8848 in your following list and for those who do not have access to TRADING VIEW (The BEST charting application available for the moment) please sign up in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance. Have a nice trading day and all the best. Take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-DAILY-PULLBACK ?WEEKLY (W1) Weekly closing @ 37'790 just slightly above the weekly clouds support level @ 37'516. We, very often, hear "jamais 2 sans 3" and we saw the third weekly candle closing, in a row, above the bottom of the weekly clouds support area... Ongoing price action is showing a recovery attempt within the clouds and in this weekly time frame, we have to wait the next weekly closing level which will give more clues for the next week (s) WEEKLY PIVOTS LEVELS : 32'950 45'850 DAILY (D1) Last daily price action triggered an additional bearish black candle which closed @ 37'790, below the former uptrend support line ! Today's ongoing recovered price action should be seen, for the time being as a CORRECTIVE PULLBACK ONLY, towards the former support trend line. Indeed, as already mentioned, the CLUSTER of MBB, KS and TS is still the first significant resistance area (39'700-39'900) to break in order to neutralise, temporary this downward pressure, which is still alive ! Above it, the DAILY CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA should also be clearly broken on a daily closing basis in order to reopen the door for higher levels towards the ongoing daily downtrend resistance line) ON THE DOWNSIDE, no change in my view 37'500-37'000 as the first support area to look at, ahead of the 36'250/35'000 next support zone. 4 HOURS (H4) In recovery mode, currently above both TS and MBB, and facing the KS resistance @ 39'201 ! Above the next resistance level will be the 38.2% Fib ret @ 39'486, ahead of the 50% Fib ret @ 40'079 (also roughly the bottom of H4 clouds resistance area !) then the 61.8% Fib ret @ 40'672 (H4 top clouds resistance zone) On the downside, a failure to clearly break and hold on H4 closing basis above KS woul, again put the focus towards the former low around 37'500 ahead of the former daily congestion bottom @ 37'000 ahead of 36'250/35'000 KEY SUPPORT PIVOT LEVEL @ 32'950 1 HOUR (H1) Corrective recovery from the intraday low of 37'567 towards a high so far of 39'220 (doji !) and H1 clouds in resistance ! IN THIS HOURLY TIME FRAME,WATCH THE CLOUDS (39'000-39'300) ON THE UPSIDE AND 38'600-38'400 ON THE DOWNSIDE. Do you like my analysis ? Do you find it bring added value to your trading activity ? If YES, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on TradingView, please add Ironman8848 in your following list. Last but not least for those who do not have access yet, to TRADINGVIEW (the BEST charting application available for the moment (more than 30 millions users over the world !) please sign up in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Have a nice trading week and all the best. Take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - DAILY - CLUSTER RESISTANCE @ 39'700-39'900 !DAILY (D1) After having, yesterday reached an intraday low @ 38'244 in testing the ongoing support trend line, the BTC closed @ 38'780 , below the clouds and the cluster of Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen and last but not least, below the MID BOLLINGER BAND too ! Therefore, on the DAILY TIME FRAME, there are 2 levels to watch at and monitor carefully, and this on a DAILY BASIS , and those levels are the following : 1) ON THE DOWNSIDE : 38'244 (Former recent intraday low) 2) ON THE UPSIDE : 39'700 - 39'900 (KS and TS Cluster) A breakout, on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS, of one of those levels, would have the following implications : DOWNSIDE : Focus will shift towards the 37'000, former congestion zone seen at the end of February ahead of the former low of Jan 24th around the 33'000 area. UPSIDE : Focus will shift towards the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently around 41'250, ahead the main resistance of the DAILY CLOUDS, currently between 41'550 and 42'524, THE LATTER LEVEL (42'524) BEING THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL, WHICH IF CLEARLY BROKEN WILL FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF MY EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS RSI below 50, @ 46.97 LAGGING LINE moving, for the time being on a sideways mode, below the Kijun-Sen. WEEKLY (W1) Under the influence of a MAJOR DOUBLE TOP FORMATION IN PROGRESS WITH ITS TRIGGER LEVEL @ 28'600 !!! Currently supported by the clouds bottom support but below the Tenkan-Sen (39'400). Upcoming weekly closing will give more clues and will validate or invalidate the weekly bottom clouds support @ 37'516. A weekly closing below 37'516 would be seen as a warning negative signal for the upcoming week ! 4 HOURS (H4) Currently above the H4 junction of the support trend line and the ongoing downtrend line resistance @ 38'700... but below the CLOUDS ! The 39'500 area mentioned in my previous analysis, published yesterday morning, should once again be seen as the first significant resistance level (middle of the 2 long candles (the white and the black) seen yesterday, upside acceleration which has been short lived and invalidated by the next long black candle (bearish engulfing pattern) and also rejected by both the Kijun-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band (H4 closing basis) In term of Fibonacci retracement, the 38.2% is @ 39'904 (filled yesterday, intraday high being 40'237), the 50% @ 40'418 and the 61.8% @ 40'931, this level being also, roughly the top of the H4 clouds resistance (41'174) On the downside, same view than for D1 1 HOUR (H1) There are, potentially a double bottom and a double top in progress ... (+ / - 1'993) Watch the trigger levels which are respectively : For the double bottom @ 40'237 , breakout confirmed would open the door for a technical target @ 36'251 For the double top @ 38'244 , breakout confirmed would open the door for a technical target @ 42'230 Have a nice weekend. All the best and take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-WEEKLY-INVERTED HAMMER...WEEKLY (W1) $ Last week price action triggered an INVERTED HAMMER PATTERN, which usually should be seen as a bullish warning signal; nevertheless, in this case, I would remain very cautious before to conclure that the downside pressure is over and we can see a STRATEGIC TREND REVERSAL ; the weekly closing level @ 38'438 was below the TENKAN-SEN ! Indeed, the ongoing weekly price action should validate this Inverted hammer pattern and a sustainable recovery should occur in order to do it; in addition, a failure to hold above the bottom of the clouds on a weekly basis, would invalidated this potential reversal pattern and put further pressure to to downside, calling for lower levels towards the former bottom zone 35'000-33'000. RSI below 50, @ 41.34 LAGGING LINE currently in the middle of the weekly clouds support area. THE STRATEGIC KEY PIVOT LEVEL ON THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME IS @ 28'600 WHICH SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE MOST IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL !!!! Watch the CLOUDS as the LEADING INDICATOR (37'500-44'000) DAILY (D1) Yesterday's closing level @ 38'438 was the third daily closing level below the daily clouds and below the former downtrend line which became the new support and which has also been broken too. RSI is below 50, @ 43.07 LAGGING LINE is already below the Kijun-Sen and also below the Mid Bollinger Band ! The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 38'528 has been broken on a daily closing basis and the next support level to look at is @ 36'679 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) ahead of the 35'000 area (former uptrend support line). A breakout of the 35'000 support area would put the focus on 34'324 (former intraday low of Feb 24th ahead of the low of 32'950 reached on Jan 24th. In this daily picture, only a sustainable recovery above 40'000 (daily clouds bottom & Mid Bollinger Band) would neutralise temporary this ongoing persisting downside risk !!! LAST BUT NOT LEAST ONLY A RECOVERY ABOVE 42'524 would force to a view reassessment of the expected BEARISH SCENARIO calling for lower levels ! 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below : 1) the clouds 2) the Kijun-Sen 3) the Mid Bollinger Band 4) the Tenkan-Sen RSI below 50 @ 32.42 LAGGING LINE currently in the middle of the H4 clouds ! Watch both Tenkan-Sen (@ 38'646) and the Mid Bollinger Band (@39'430) as the first levels which should be broken to neutralise this ongoing downside rise ! The main resistance area in this 4 hours time frame remains the clouds resistance area between 39'828 and 42'722. Any short term recovery should be seen as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY in a BROAD STRATEGICALLY BEAR TREND and therefore, as already mentioned several times, in my previous analysis, any countertrend exposure should be managed with a strict disciplined approach in applying an appropriate RISK REWARD RATIO which will depend on your TACTICAL TIME FRAME HORIZON ! Watch and monitor closely price action on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to get clues for further development. Have a nice trading week and all the best. Take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
ETHEREUM - WEEKLY - WATCH THE CLOUDS !WEEKLY (W1) Currently in a STRATEGIC DOWNTREND , roughly in the middle of the weekly clouds support area ! Ongoing weekly candle is, as for the BTC in progress for a potential INVERTED HAMMER , which of course should be validated or invalidated by the current candle closing ! During this week, the Ethereum failed to recover and hold above the TENKAN-SEN @ 3'033 (short lived intraday weekly high @ 3'044) RSI below 50, @ 40.69 and LAGGING LINE below both KIJUN-SEN and TENKAN-SEN ! GLOBAL WEEKLY PICTURE REMAINS HEAVY in this weekly picture, watch the following levels : 2'919 (top of the weekly clouds) 2'348 (bottom of the weekly clouds & former uptrend support line) A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF ONE OF THOSE POINTS WOULD RESPECTIVELY OPEN THE DOOR FOR : DOWNSIDE : 1'914 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Long term rally starting @ 86.62 in March 2020 towards the ATH @ 4'870.51 reached in November 2021. 1'700 former weekly congestion bottom UPSIDE : 3'033 (TENKAN-SEN) 3'272 (Ongoing downtrend line resistance) 3'522 (KIJUN-SEN) CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely shorter time frames, in beginning with the DAILY (currently below the clouds and below both TS and KS and also below the MBB) then H4,(potential double bottom in progress !!) H1(same than H4) and 15 minutes, to detect early potential bullish divergences signals which will give you the opportunity to initiate TACTICAL LONG POSITIONS, COUNTERTREND !!! This should be managed carefully in adopting a RISK REWARD RATIO accordingly IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
GEMINI:ETHUSD
by Ironman8848
2
NQ1 100MF-ONGOING STRATEGIC DOWNTREND !WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a sharp decline which reached nearly my technical target @ 12'894 (low being @ 13'015). After having briefly broken the weekly clouds support, the Nasdaq recovered nicely (HAMMER) and closed roughly at the top of the week @ 14'180 (high being 14'196). Nevertheless, it failed to cross over the secondary downtrend line resistance and also to breakout the weekly top clouds resistance zone. This failure should be seen as a negative signal for the ongoing price action which is expected to move lower towards the bottom of the weekly clouds support zone, currently @ 13'182, slightly above the last week former low @ 13'025 On the upside, the first significant resistance level to look at is @ 14'125 (ongoing secondary downtrend line resistance) ahead of the weekly top clouds resistance area, currently @ 14'618 and more important the TS & KS cluster (14'894-14'896) ahead of "MY BAROMETER", THE MID BOLLINGER BAND ƒ 15'390 RSI below 50 @ 37'30. converging to the downside LAGGING LINE below TS and KS DAILY (D1) Friday's price action, LONG WHITE CANDLE, has been rejected by the Kijun-Sen (14'183), in resistance, Ongoing price action is showing an attempt to hold above the Tenkan-Sen @ 13'847. RSI below 50, @ 40.58 LAGGING LINE far below the clouds and KS and TS. A daily closing below 13'725 would trigger a DARK CLOUD COVER and would add further selling pressure towards lower levels towards the former lows On the upside, a daily closing above the KS @ 14'183 would temporary neutralise the ongoing downside risk; indeed, above this first resistance, the next one will be the Mid Bollinger Band (@ 14'423) and last but not least, still the DAILY CLOUDS which should be seen as the MAJOR RESISTANCE AREA BETWEEN 15'000 AND 15'250 4 HOURS (H4) Currently caught between the Mid Bollinger Band in support and the Tenkan-Sen in first resistance... Above, watch the H4 clouds resistance area, currently between 14'026 and 14'324 On the downside, MBB @ 13'741 ahead KS @ 13'611 Watch shorter intraday time frames to get clues which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications of scenarios previously mentioned for D1 and W1. Have a nice week All the best Take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD- CRITICAL LEVEL FOR THE LAST W1 CLOSING !WEEKLY (W1) Another high volatility price action seen last week between a low of 34'324 and a high of 40'330... which provided, several TACTICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITY IN A BROAD BEAR TREND WHICH RESTARTED TWO WEEKS AGO @ 45'850 !!! Failure to hold above the psychological 40'000 and close above 40'225 which is the middle level of the previous weekly long black candle should be seen as an additional negative signal. Indeed, the last weekly closing level @ 37'712 was just slightly above the weekly clouds bottom support @ 37'360 which means, that once again, CLOUDS should be watch at very carefully. THIS WEEKLY CLOSING WAS BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN (40'268) WHICH ALSO COINCIDES ROUGHLY WITH THE 40'222 IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. RSI below 50, @ 40.80. LAGGING LINE below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen and currently, roughly in the middle of the clouds ! In this weekly time frame, LEVELS TO WATCH AT, ARE THE FOLLOWING : UPSIDE : R1 : 40'268 R2 : 42'170 R3 : 43'937 DOWNSIDE : S1 : 37'516 S2 : 35'020 S3 : 32'950 A FAILURE TO HOLD ABOVE THE FORMER LOW @ 32'950 WOULD DIRECTLY PUT THE FOCUS TOWARDS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 30'000 LEVEL AHEAD OF THE MOST AND VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT 28'600 LEVEL (DOUBLE TOP TRIGGER LEVEL !!!) DAILY (D1) Last daily closing (37'712) below the clouds (38'050) but was just slightly above the Daily Tenkan-Sen @ 37'397. The Tenkan-Sen should be seen as a good support indicator in this daily time frame as a failure to hold on a daily basis closing above it would open the door for lower level towards the 37'000 area which is the bottom of the price action seen over the last couple of days. A daily closing below 37'000 would be another negative signal for the upcoming trading sessions the 37'000-35'000/34324 trading range looks very fragile ! RSI below 50, @ 4125 LAGGING LINE below the Kijun-Sen but still slighly above the Tenkan-Sen. 4 HOURS (H4) After having roughly tested the 37'000 support level (intraday low so far being 37'015), below the H4 clouds support, the BTC is currently attempting to recover. Currently above the Kijun-Sen @ 37'327 (also 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 34'324-40'330 rally) BUT below the Tenkan-Sen @ 38'451 and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 38'817. THE MID BOLLINGER BAND and the TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS CURRENTLY @ 39'755 SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE LEVELS TO BREAK IN ORDER TO CONFIRM THIS SHY RECOVERY. On the DOWNSIDE, a failure to hold on a H4 closing basis above 37'000 would also be an additional warning signal calling for further downside towards 36'618 (61.8% Fib ret) ahead of 35'609 (78.6% Fib extension) in this H4 time frame. RSI below 50, @ 44.64 LAGGING LINE still above KS and TS Last but not least, watch the last price action seen over the last 2 candles (2 successive DOJIS) which means growing uncertainty and indecision !!! HOURLY (H1) Below the clouds, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen. Just above the Tenkan-Sen @ 37'696 In this H1 time frame watch 37'696-37'400 as the first support zone and on the upside watch the cluster @ 38'450-38'500 ahead of the clouds resistance area 39'000-39'200 CONCLUSION : The BITCOIN remains in a BROAD STRATEGIC BEAR TREND and is for the time being, STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING, A SELL ON RALLY AND NOT YET A BUY ON DIPS !!! Nevertheless, as already mentioned several times, there are plenty of TACTICAL COUNTERTREND TRADING OPPORTUNITIES which should monitored and managed accordingly in applying a strict and appropriate RISK MANAGEMENT approach and this depending of your targets and your time frame !!! Do you like my analysis and do you find that it add some value of your trading activity, so, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please do not forget either do add IRONMAN8848 on your following list on TradingView. For those who do not have access to TradingView, (at the moment, the best charting application) you can click on the following link (several plans available :-) : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD-50% FIB RET @ 40'087 FILLEDWEEKLY (w1) The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'087 of the last downside move (45'850-34'324) has been filled , intra-day high being 40'330. Upcoming weekly closing level will be very important for further development; indeed, a weekly closing above 40'225 would trigger a PIERCING LINE PATTERN, which would be a first positive bullish signal for the next week. DAILY (D1) Currently roughly in the middle of the clouds resistance zone with its top level @ 42'524 which remains, on a DAILY BASIS, the pivot level to break. Last daily closing @ 39'231, just slightly below the TENKAN-SEN @ 39'264. The KIJUN-SEN @ 40'087 has briefly been broken on the recent price action but the BTC, failed, so far to hold above it ! There is a POTENTIAL SHOOTING STAR IN PROGRESS (wait daily closing level for validation or invalidation !) On the DOWNSIDE , the first significant support area remains the former congestion zone between 38'350 and 37'000. TS is @ 37'660 and daily clouds bottom @ 37'410. The LAGGING LINE is attempting to breakout both KS and MBB. RSI still below 50, @ 46.71 On the UPSIDE , THE 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is @ 41'447 ahead of the KEY PIVOT RESISTANCE LEVEL @ 42'524 previously mentioned. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently in the clouds zone (38'364-40'577) The TENKAN-SEN @ 38'826 which currently coincides with the ongoing short term uptrend line) is working as the first support level, area of the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 37'907 and then the KIJUN-SEN @ 37'327 . RSI is moving sideways and showing some lack of momentum... 1 HOUR (H1) Currently in a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE MODE ! Watch carefully the H4 clouds bottom support zone @ 39'330 (in overlay in the hourly chart) ahead of the cluster of MBB and KS @ 39'200-39'180 as short term barometer indicators ! (closing basis) The H1 clouds support area is between 37'500 and 37'000 and for information the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the last rally from 34'324 towards 40'330 is @ 37'327 CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely intraday short term time frames which would help you to validate or invalidate implications above mentioned in W1, D1 and H4 Have a great weekend and all the best. Take care. IRONMAN8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-AS EXPECTED HIGH VOLATILITY OCCURED...As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday morning we saw an increasing volatility which triggered a trading range between 34'324 reached early yesterday morning towards an intraday high @ 39'720. WEEKLY (W1) Main levels to look in this weekly time frame remains : UPSIDE : 42'524 /43'673 DOWNSIDE : 37'365 DAILY (D1) Currently in the bottom of the clouds. BUT STILL BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN @ 39'264, the KIJUN-SEN @ 40'087 and the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 41'244 The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'554 of the last downside move has been filled with an intraday high @ 39'720. There is a daily congestion support zone to look at, between 38'450 and 37'000... the daily clouds bottom support being currently @ 37'325 RSI below 50 @ 43.39 4 HOURS (H4) A BULLISH DIVERGENCE triggered the big rally and in this H4 time frame the BTC is currently above the TS and MBB @37'022) and above the Mid Bollinger Band @ 37'419. Neverteless, still below the H4 clouds resistance zone which is between 40'177 and 41'379 RSI above 50 @ 56.44 1 HOUR (H1) WARNING ! Bearish RSI divergence in progress ! Tenkan-Sen in support @ 38'395 in this short term intraday hourly time frame ahead of MBB @ 37'203 (which is also the ongoing short term uptrend support line) and the Kijun-Sen @ 37'022. A failure to hold, on H1 closing basis,above the Tenkan-Sen @ 38'395, would be the first warning signal of potential reversal and a breakout of the 37'000 area would give confirmation for further downside ! CONCLUSION : Despite the sharp rally seen yesterday, THE BTC IS STILL, STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING, in a BEAR TREND , and recent price action, was still a CORRECTIVE MOVE IN A BROAD STRATEGIC BEAR TREND A DAILY CLOSING ABOVE THE TENKAN-SEN @ 39'265 WOULD BRING THE FIRST WARNING SIGNAL OF A BOTTOM IN PLACE HAVING IN MIND THAT, AS LONG AS THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS @ 42'524 WILL NOT BE CLEARLY BROKEN ON THE DAILY BASIS... THE DOWNSIDE RISK WILL REMAIN ! IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-D1-WATCH THE CLOUDS & RSI !As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis, the recovery attempt has been short lived and the failure to recover above the 39'000 area triggered a new wave of selling pressure which pushed sharply down the BTC towards an intraday low of 34'324 !!! After this sharp decline, it is likely to see some little recovery which, in this broad bearish strategic picture, should be seen as a corrective move only. Watch H4 and H1 for tactical view. STRATEGIC VIEW : MONTHLY (M1) Ongong bearish picture. Currently below the CLUSTER OF MBB (36'704) AND KIJUN-SEN (36'425) 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 28''737 78.6 % Fib ret extension @ 17'792 RSI converging to the downside WEEKLY (W1) Currently below the clouds ! Next significant support level @ 32'950 former low ahead of the psychological 30'000 level. THE VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL REMAINS 28'600 0 WHICH IS : 1) The Double top trigger level (Warning, warning and warning ¨) 2) Roughly the 61.8% Fibonacci retraccemtnt (28'737) of the big 3'850-69'000 rally. This level should really be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMEN T and it is likely to be difficult to break straightly ! A CLEAR AND SUSTAINABLE BREAKOUT OF 28'600 WOULD CREATE GREAD DAMAGE FOR THE BTC WHICH IS ALREADY CURRENTLY IN TROUBLE, HAVING IN MIND, OF COURSE, A LONG TERM BROAD PICTURE.... DAILY (D1) Below the clouds. Lagging line below the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'457, the Kijun-Sen @ 40'087 and the MBB @ 41'203 Watch price action on RSI In this daily time frame, only a clear recovery above 39'350, (as already mentioned in my previous analysis) would force to a view reassessment of the still ongoing downside strategic move... TACTICAL VIEW : 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the clouds (41'339-42'117) Watch former low @ 36'370 as the first warning indicator of a potential intraday short term reversal. Then 36'823, 37'237 ahead of 37'656. A clear breakout of the MBB @ 37'656 would be constructive on this H4 time frame Watch also RSI price action to detect bullish divergence ! 1 HOUR (H1) Currently below the clouds too (37'755-37'931) TS @ 36'092 KS @ 36'813 (which is also the H4 Tenkan-Sen !) Watch the Mid Bollnger Band, currently @ 37'308 CONCLUSION : Al already mentioned several times in my previous analysis, there are, in this high volatility environment, plenty of tactical trading opportunities BUT NEVER FORGET TO ACT ACCORDINGLY WHEN YOU INITIATE POSITIONS COUNTERTREND AND PLACE STOP LOSSES DEPENDING ON YOUR TARGET AND YOUR TIME FRAME !!! Have a nice trading day All the best and take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-D1-STRATEGIC PICTURE REMAINS HEAVY!DAILY (D1) The BTC is currently below : 1) the weekly clouds 2) the daily clouds still slightly above the monthly clouds bottom, currently @ 36'061. Yesterday's closing level @ 37'076, below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (37'877) ! Persisting selling pressure which is likely to push the BTC lower towards the next support level around the 37'000 area (lower recent daily closing level) ahead of the 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement extension @ 35'710. RSI below 50, @ 33.96. still converging to the downside The LAGGING LINE crossed under the Tenkan-Sen. GLOBAL PICTURE REMAINS, STRATEGICALLY HEAVY ! Recoveries attempts seen over the last couple of days have been short lived with an upside potential pretty limited, providing better level to sell the BTC. That is why, as already mentioned several times, it is very important to be very disciplined in trading tactically, countertrend, against the strategic downtrend.Do not forget to place stop losers accordingly in respecting the rule of the Risk Reward Ratio !!! Looking to the UPSIDE, the daily clouds (39'350-42'500) should be seen as the main resistance area in which you will find intermediate resistance levels which are the following : R1 : 40'577 R2 : 40'680 R3 : 41'465 4 Hours (H4) Currently below KS, MBB and TS. Watch RSI price action on closing basis level (potential bullish divergence in progress) should be confirmed ! 1 Hour (H1) Same comment than H4 , watch next closing level which will validate or invalidate a potential RSI bullish divergence. CONCLUSION : In this strategic downward trend, tactical trading opportunities will appear but as already told, stay cautious and use a strict RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH IN FONCTION OF THE TIME FRAME YOU ARE LOOKING FOR ! Have a nice trading day. Alll the best and take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-61.8% FIB RET@37'877 NEARLY FILLED!WEEKLY (W1) The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 37'877 has roughly been filled with an intraday reached yesterday 37'974... Nevertheless, global picture remains heavy ! Indeed, last week price action triggered a LONG BLACK CANDLE with its closing level nearly at its bottom which is usually a bearish confirmation of the ongoing trend. In addition, the previous candle was already, as mentioned last week, a first warning reversal signal ( SHOOTING STAR !) IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME LEVELS TO LOOK AT ARE THE FOLLOWING : UPSIDE : 42'524 (TENKAN-SEN) AHEAD OF THE TOP OF WEEKLY CLOUDS DOWNSIDE : 37'260 (WEEKLY CLOUDS BOTTOM) DAILY (D1) Last closing below the Daily clouds ! RSI @ 39.93 (no bullish divergence yet in this daily time frame !) After having nearly filled the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , it is usual to see a recovery attempt which is currently in progress... Daily closing later on today, will give in this time frame the temperature for the upcoming trading sessions ; indeed, a daily closing above the bottom of the clouds (also the middle of the yesterday's black candle) will trigger a PIERCING LINE pattern, which would be the first signal of a reversal continuation. A daily closing above the opening of the previous candle (40'000) would even give additional value for further upside as in this case we would have a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN ! Next significant resistance being the TS and the Mid Bollinger Band ("My barometer"), currently, respectively @ 41'400 &41600 On the downside, a failure to hold above the former low @ 37'974 would open the door for lower levels towards the 35'000 area first ahead of 32'950 (January low). 4 HOURS (H4) Successive dois, finally triggered this upside recovery attempt; currently facing the first significant resistance level in the 4 hours time frame, which is the Mid Bollinger Band , currently @ 39'650 ! A sustainable move and H4 closing above 39'650, would temporary neutralize this ongoing downside risk which is still weighing on the BTC. HOURLY (H1) Ongoing short term recovery in progress...with the first obstacle (hourly clouds) which should firstly be broken in order to confirm further upside... 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ot the last downside move is @ 39'540 ! CONCLUSION : As usual, watch and monitor closely price action from shorter intraday time frames, which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned in longer time frames. HAVE A NICE WEEK :-) Take care and all the best IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-D1-FOLLOW THE CLOUDS...DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action (DOJI) is confirming this ongoing persisting downside move ! Indeed, the expected short term recovery has been short lived, providing better selling opportunity. The BTC nearly filled the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'400 /intraday low being so far @ 39'492 and global picture remains heavy. Interesting to look at the shape of the daily clouds which still have some space to the downside for the upcoming daily trading sessions and also, important to note that the daily bottom clouds area coincides roughly with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 37'877 and therefore should be seem as an important support level and as a pivot point in this daily time frame. On the upside, the daily pivot point remains @ 42'500 (top of the clouds !) with an intermediate resistance level between 39'500 and 40'000 WEEKLY (W1) Weekly closing level will give more clues about further development as, for the time being, it is not very encouraging either... SHORTER TIME FRAMES : As usual, watch and monitor shorter intraday time frames to get early signal of a BULLISH DIVERGENCE, which could provide short term tactical trading buying opportunities(countertrend !) and which should be protected with a trailing stop loss accordingly !!! Have a nice weekend, take care and all the best. Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-D1-WATCH THE CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN !DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a long black bearish candle which went (as expected,see my previous analyisis) down towards the clouds bottom support level @ 40'088 ! BTC is currently below : 1) the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line (TS) 2) the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) 3) the ongoing former uptrend support line (in green) Nevertheless, still above : 1) The Kijun-Sen (KS) @ 39'400 which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 32'950-45'850 rally seen recently from Jan 24th to Feb 10th RSI below 50, @ 46.24 Lagging line testing the MBB and the KS , which for the time being act as supports. CONCLUSION ON A DAILY BASIS : Watch carefully, ONCE AGAIN, at the clouds ! Indeed, such kind of information is very powerful, and will give you the next direction... Therefore, there are two levels to look at very carefully on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS which are the following : UPSIDE : 42'525 (DAILY TOP CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA) DOWNSIDE : 39'400 (DAILY BOTTOM CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA & LAST BUT NOT LEAST THE 50% FIB RET and the KS TOO) A sustainable recovery move above MBB, currently @ 41'489, would, temporary neutralise this ongoing persisting downside risk. While a failure to hold above 39'400 would put the focus on 37'877 being the 61.8% Fib ret ahead of 35'710 (78.6% Fibonacci extension). 4 HOURS (H4) Below the clouds, the psychological 40'000 support level, nearly filled with a yesterday's low @ 40'088 Below the TS, KS and MBB too. RSI far below 50 @ 33.07 with NO BULLISH DIVERGENCE DETECTED SO FAR ! , meaning current reversal price action should only be seen as a corrective move. The Lagging line is below the clouds too. Looking at potential tactical corrective recovery, we can identify the following targets : R1 : 41'211 R2 : 41'907 R3 : 42'469 (50% FIB RET 44'850-40'088 & DAILY CLOUDS TOP AREA @ 42'525) R4 : 43'030 To the downside, as mentioned previously in D1, a breakout of 39'400 would put the BTC in a very fragile zone (mirror effect of the long white candle seen on Feb 4th (37'325-39'840)! CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely price action on shorter intraday time frames to get more clues and intermediate signal (s) which will help you to validate or invalidate implications above mentioned. FINALY, LAST BUT NOT LEAST DO NOT FORGET, WHEN YOU TRADE TACTICALLY IN COUNTERTREND TO ADOPT A DISCIPLINED RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH IN PLACING STOP LOSSES ACCORDINGLY AND IN ADOPTING ALSO A TRAILING STOP STRATEGY !!! GOOD LUCK :-) Have a nice day and take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-D1-TENKAN-SEN IN RESISTANCE !DAILY (D1) After having reached, yesterday an intraday low @ 41'575, the BTC recovered to close @ 42'077 in making a "small" BULLISH ENGULFING pattern. Ongoing price action is showing a first important resistance to break, which is the TENKAN-SEN or Conversion Line @ 43'712 and this, of course on a daily closing basis ! Looking on the downside, the BTC, in this daily time frame is supported by the cluster of both the Mid Bollinger Band (my Barometer !) and by the ongoing daily uptrend support line, currently around 40'830. Therefore, in this daily time frame, supports and resistance levels to watch are the following : DOWNSIDE : S1 : 41'575 (yesteday's intraday low) S2 : 40'833 ( MBB) - 38.2% Fib ret @ 40'922 S3 : Kijun-Sen or Base line @ 39'400 - 50 % Fib ret UPSIDE : R1 : 43'712 R2 : 45'850 (Former high) R3 : 48'000 (78.6% Fib ret of the 52'098-32950 downside move) CONCLUSION : 1. Watch the DAILY CLOUDS on the upside 2. Watch the MID BOLLINGER BANDS on the downside A clear breakout, ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS , of one of those levels would open the door for a move of 5'000 points, targeting respectively the psychological 50'000 level on the upside and the 35'000 area on the downside, which coincides with the lower daily closing level seen in January 22nd. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently above the Mid Bollinger Band (ongoing long white candle !) and attempting to test and potentially breakout the top of the 4 hours clouds resistance area @ 44'090. RSI is above 50 @ 60.31, no bearish divergence detected in this H4 time frame yet. An H4 closing above the clouds would be the first positive signal for further upside in this H4 time frame 1 HOUR (H1) Last 1 hour trading (long white candle) confirmed in this time frame the upside clouds breakout, filling on its way the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 43'208.(intraday high so far @ 43'661) Next resistance being the 50% Fib ret @ 43'712 (also the level of the Tenkan-Sen on the daily chart !) RSI is also above 50 @ 69.36 and no bearish divergence detected so far either. As usual watch shorter intraday time frames which will give you a warning signal of a reversal or a validation of the trend continuation. Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
SP500MF-UPSIDE CORRECTIVE MOVE OVER !WEEKLY (W1) This weekly price action is showing a recovery attempt which failed to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band on a weekly closing basis ! In addition the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 4'580.75 has been filled (high being 4'586) and the weekly closing was @ 4'492.50 which is exactly on the razor's hedge (double top trigger level !!!) Therefore, this recent upside corrective move should be seen as OVER ! Likely to see at least a retest of the former low, below the 4'200 (top of the weekly clouds support zone) during the upcoming session (s) Just as a gentle reminder : 4'186.50 is ONLY THE 23.6 % FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF THE 2'174-4'808.25 RALLY... meaning that there is plenty of space to the downside... 1) the 38.2% Fib being @ 3'802 (important as it is the bottom of the weekly clouds !) 2) the 50% Fib ret @ 3'491.25 (Monthly Kijun-Sen) and the 61.8% Fib ret @ 3'180.25 Last but not least, the monthly clouds top level is currently @ 2'930 !! Have a look at the price action seen in Q1 2020... Never forget to look back on the long term picture ! DAILY (D1) Rejection a couple of days ago from the daily clouds resistance zone, failure to stay above both the Mid Bollinger Band and the daily downtrend resistance line. Last daily closing below the Kijun-Sen but still above the Tenkan-Sen. Lagging line again below the clouds. RSI failed to hold above 50. Watch 4'425 as the pivot point for further development; a failure to hold above that level on a daily closing basis would reopen the door for lower levels towards the former low @ 4'212, roughly the double top target of 4'175.75. Below the weekly clouds zone should be seen as the next very important support area (4'157-3810) (corroboration with the weekly analysis above mentioned). On the upside, ONLY a successful breakout of the 4'600 ahead of the "VERY THIN" daily clouds resistance zone (4'650) would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario and if this recovery occurs, then the focus would be, at least, for a retest of the ATH above 4'800 4 HOURS (H4) Recent price action in this time frame is showing the following : 1) Failure to recover above the Mid Bollinger Band 2) Last H4 closing level below the Tenkan Sen 3) RSI converging to the downside Looks like further downside move is expected over the upcoming trading sessions. Interesting to note that currently the clouds zone support is very thin (twist !!) and therefore it looks very fragile too. A failure on H4 closing basis to hold above the clouds would directly put the focus on the congestion bottom of the former lows reached between Jan 24th and Jan 28th (4'212.75-4'266.25). 1 HOUR (H1) Currently in an ongoing new downtrend channel with its top resistance line around 4'530 (H1 clouds) and its bottom support 4'430. Therefore, on this H1 time frame, there are 2 levels to watch : 4'530 4'430 A breakout of one of those levels would give the direction for the near future. RSI @ 47.02 Lagging line below the clouds. All the best Take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Ironman8848