BTC-DAILY-RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE..BUT !Yesterday's price action (long black candle - BEARISH ENGULFING !) which pushed sharply down the BTC towards a low of 37'701 (nearly filling the TRIANGLE TARGET @ 37'581), triggered a BULLISH DIVERGENCE...
Therefore, on short term and it'is exactly what is going on, a recovery should take place; nevertheless and in order to confirm a TACTICAL REVERSAL, the BTC should recover and close on a daily basis, at least above the middle (39'295 of the yesterday's long black bearish candle which is also by the way the area of the former daily support congestion !
This only will be the first step of this potential recovery as, as long as the BTC does not make a closing level, above the closing level (40'440) of the last white bullish candle, the trend will not change and the downside risk will remain !!!
LAST BUT NOT LEAST IN THIS DAILY PICTURE, THE BTC IS WELL BELOW THE BOTTOM OF THE CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA WHICH IS ALSO CONFIRMED WITH THE LAGGING LINE...
CONCLUSION. :
ANY RALLY, FOR THE TIME BEING SHOULD BE SEEN AS A CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY (TACTICAL COUNTERTREND PRICE ACTION) AND NOT AS STRATEGIC REVERSAL YET; THEREFORE, ANY TACTICAL LONG POSITION SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CAREFULLY AND MANAGED WITH STOP LOSS ACCORDINGLY !
KEY LEVELS IN THIS DAILY TIME FRAME ARE RESPECTIVELY :
DOWNSIDE : 37'000 (ONGOING PRIMARY UPTREND SUPPORT LINE)
UPSIDE : 40'500-40'800 (FORMER HIGHS)
IMPLICATIONS :
DOWNSIDE BREAKOUT OF THE PRIMARY UPTREND SUPPORT LINE :
A failure to hold and close on a daily basis above the 37'000 area would be seen as a NEGATIVE SIGNAL, calling for lower levels towards 34'325 (February low) ahead of 32'950 (January low)
Then, below the 30'000 area (psychological support) and last but not least THE VERY IMPORTANT KEY STRATEGIC SUPPORT @ 28'600 (double top trigger level !)
RECOVERY ABOVE THE FORMER HIGHS (40'500 - 40'800:
A successful recovery and a closing level above this area would momentary neutralise this ongoing downside risk and put again the BTC in a TACTICAL UPTREND.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE PRIMARY DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE IS CURRENTLY @ 45'600
4 HOURS
RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE CONFIRME BY A BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN
R1 : 38'500
R2 : 38'917
R3 : 39'717 (38.2% FIB RET 42'979 -37'701) and also the middle of the long black bearish candle seen yesterday afternoon (40'484-38'572 !)
On the downside a failure to stay and close (H4 closing basis) above the recent low @ 37'701 would reactivate the downtrend and put the focus towards the levels previously mentioned in D1
1 HOUR
RSI school case ...
On April 25th we saw a BULLISH DIVERGENCE which trigger a move from 38'202 towards a high of 40'800 (first top)
Then a second top also @ 40'800 which triggered this time a BEARISH DIVERGENCE which pushed the BTC down again from 40'800 towards a low of 37'701.
Finally this morning a BULLISH DIVERGENCE took place (potential double bottom with its trigger level @ 38'462)
WATCH ONGOING PRICE ACTION AS AN HOURLY CLOSING above 38'462 WOULD ACTIVATE THIS DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMATION FOR A TARGET @ 39'223, which roughly match with the KIJUN-SEN (or base line), currently @ 39'250
A failure to activate this double bottom in progress would put again the BTC under selling pressure with the focus on the former low of 37'701.
As usual, monitor closely price action from intraday short term time frames to longer time frames which will help you to catch early and intermediate validation or invalidation signal of what has been mentioned in longer (DAILY and 4 hours time frames)
Have a nice trading day.
Any comment are more than welcome.
Regards
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
Strategicview
URANIUM - URA - MED/LONG TERM STRAT BUYLooking at the daily picture, we can identify several important information :
1) caught in a $ 23.00 - $ 25.50 trading range
2) mix of a double bottom and double top
3) currently below the Mid Bollinger Band
4) in the middle of the sideways trading range above mentioned.
5) supported by the former uptrend support line (in green)
6) still below the ongoing resistance line (in blue)
Nevertheless, recent price action from the former high @ $ 28.68 towards
$ 23.00 should be seen as an healthy consolidation move and not as a trend reversal.
Therefore, having in mind a med/long term buy strategy, dips should be seen as a good opportunity
to increase the existing long exposure for those who are already long or to initiate new positions for the others.
TRUST ME.. there is a STRONG STORY behind and it is only the beginning of the story...
Have a look at the monthly picture and you will see the upside potential, it is huge !!!
Last but not least, the better vehicle to invest in the URANIUM theme is the following :
Strategy Certificate on U3O8 RENAISSANCE Portfolio
Underlying: U3O8 RENAISSANCE Portfolio
SSPA/EUSIPA Product Type Tracker Certificates (1300)
ISIN: CH0441692628 /Valor: 44169262
Last price (05.10.2021) $ 1'987.05
Best
Ironman8848
BTC - W1 - WARNING ! BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN !!!W1 : Last week price action triggered a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN !
Interesting to note that lowest seen was 51'541, close to the 38.2% Fib ret
@ 51106.
Of course, such kind of bearish candlesticks, should be, in this W1 time frame,
confirmed on a closing basis at the end of this week !
Nevertheless, the fact that we get out of the uptrend channel is one of the first
warning signal that the former bullish trend could be over.
Watch shorter time frames to monitor the ongoing price action which would allow to act accordingly
on the time frames you choose for your trading strategies !
Have a nice trading week, all the best, take care and have fun !
May your long goes up and your short goes down.
And finally, please do not hesitate, of course, if you find, my technical analysis approach, valuable for you, to like it
and to add me, if it is not done yet, on your following list.
Ironman88848
BTC - D1/H4 - STILL IN A STRATEGIC BULLISH MODE... BUT !D1 : Yesterday's strong selloff towards an intraday low of 44845, in breaking briefly the Kijun-Sen (45273) level and rebounded sharply above it,
to finally close above the strategic uptrend support line which keep, for the time being, the bullish mode still intact.
Today's ongoing price action is showing a recovery followup in progress; nevertheless, following the two former long black
candles.
In order to neutralise the downside risk in D1, BTC should recover and close today at least above 51530 which should
be seen as a pivot level.
Indeed, a move above that level or better above 51599 (Tenkan-Sen) would give additional trust for this recovery continuation.
On the downside, key pivot level remains both Mid Bollinger Band and strategic uptrend support line.
A daily closing (which should be confirmed !) below those levels would force a strategic reassessment view, in moving from BULLISH to BEARISH !
H4 : Looking at the last couple of price action candles we can see a yo-yo move, which was the following :
1) 3 long black candles
2) Piercing line (usually moderately bullish)
3) Bearish engulfing (usually bearish)
4) Bullish engulfing (usually bullish)
5) Long white candle with closing nearly at the top (bullish confirmation) ... but still below the current downtrend line resistance level !!!
6) Ongoing candle (wait for H4 next closing for validation or invalidation on the ongoing price action.
Very important to note the important resistance zone between 51150 and 52860 which is respectively the 61.8 % and 78.6 %
Fibonacci retracement and also the clouds area resistance.
Therefore, I would strongly suggest to watch very carefully the price action over the coming period to check if the BTC will be
able to upside breakout this important resistance zone.
On the downside the first level to look at is the new uptrend support line which started from yesterday's low @ 44845.
Monitor closely price action on shorter time frames !
BTC - D1 - LONG BLACK BEARISH CANDLE IN PROGRESS...D1 : The ongoing bearish tactical price action is currently triggering a long black bearish candle...
In addition the first significant support is now, not far away, TS @ 52134
A failure to hold above this important support level, would likely trigger further downside move in a
acceleration phase mode, putting the focus on the 23.6% Fib ret @ 51379 ahead of the psychological support level of 50000.
As long as we stay above the Mid Bollinger Band and the strategic support trend line, recent and current price action should
be seen as a consolidation & corrective move in a broad bullish trend.
A breakout (confirmed) of 46500 would then switch from a BULLISH strategic view to a BEARISH one !
On the upside, in order to neutralise the ongoing bearish price action, BTC should quickly recover an hold above 55920, which was
the yesterday's opening level of the former white bullish candle.
BTC - D1/H4 - SOMETHING IS COOKING...H1 : Yesterday's price action, after having retested the former high above 52600, closed slightly lower
@ 51579. D1 indicators are losing some momentum.
Watch closely the former strategic uptrend resistance line which should be now seen as the first significant support area
in this time frame.
h4 : Recent price action seen from the peaks with 2 successive dojis pattern are also showing some lost of momentum in making
in closing H4 periods lower highs confirming for the time being an ongoing tactical reversal price action.
In addition, both new support trend line and roughly MBB have been tested on the last candle !!
Watch closely MBB as, again a very good "barometer" indicator for the upcoming H4 periods.
And as usual screen also very carefully H1 and M15 for intermediate signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the ongoing bearish price action in H4.
Have a nice trading day.
All the best and take care.
Ironman8848
BTC - D1/H4 - AT A GLANCE - TRADING IN THE ZONE !D1 : The psychological level of 50'000 has nearly been reached early this morning (high so far 49938)
While the strategic outlook remains BULLISH, we are currently facing some tough resistances levels
to breakout.
Indeed :
1) strategic uptrend line resistance
2) potential double top (49715 and 49738)
3) psychological resistance level of 50'000
In addition technical indicators are showing some uncertainty and indecision
Therefore, even if I remains positive for further upside (first target being 52235 which the H4 triangle ascending
pattern target, I would remain, on tactical approach, cautious and rather wait for a consolidate and healthy correction
before increase an existing long exposure.
H4 : Even if the triangle breakout is not perfect (too close of the apex !), it, nevertheless worked in showing a long white bullish candle.
BUT ,on this time frame, the spectrum of a double top pattern is again on the cards.
Watch the tactical uptrend support line (@48725) as the first indicator of a potential tactical reversal.
Below the main support area to watch is the cluster of MBB, TS and KS.
A breakout of 47900 would invalidate the former tactical bullish price action
Watch development on shorter times frames (H1,M15 and M5)
Have a nice trading day.
Best
Ironman8848