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Will we witness parity in EURUSD?EURUSD - Daily analysis and trading strategy. The new week begins with the G20 meeting in Brazil. It is possible to outline new directions for the development of the world, especially in the hotspots Ukraine and Israel. On Monday, the ECB's President Lagarde speech is expected, where it should become clear whether there will be a change in interest rate policy in Europe after the election of Trump. Lagarde is likely to hint at a cut in the key interest rate. The tariffs that the new team in the White House is expected to introduce to Europe and especially to its industrial part, such as Germany, are already having an impact. Factories will not be able to compete with Chinese and American goods. In addition, the market for goods from Europe is constantly shrinking, and the quality is falling. Currently, 41.5% of German companies report a lack of orders. This percentage will increase significantly in early 2025. A number of manufacturers from Europe are thinking about where to go. Possible locations are the United States, China, and possibly other countries such as Turkey and Southeast Asian countries. The euro has no chance in the near term. The probability of Euro/Dollar parity is very likely even before January 20, 2025 (Donald Trump's Inauguration). Therefore, our strategy remains to sell the euro with the aim of parity and down. If you are entering the market now, wait for the slight upward correction of 50-80 pips to re-open a short position. For this week, we expect the dollar to take a lead of 100-130 pips against the Euro.
Short
by World-Signals
1
GOLD: Waiting for the CPI release!After the recent breakdown of the critical $2,600 threshold, Gold (XAU/USD) has regained ground, reclaiming this level despite the persistent strengthening of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. However, technically, XAU/USD shows bearish potential: on the daily chart, the price has dropped further below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is trending downward. Technical indicators, while slowing their descent, remain deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal or interim support. Fundamentally, Gold is hovering near $2,600, awaiting significant US economic data and pressured by the strong demand for the Dollar, bolstered by political tensions in the US and Europe, including the escalating political crisis in Germany and weakness in Asian and European markets. Investors are closely watching for the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Wednesday, which could fuel further speculation on the future of US economic policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Trump's Fiscal PoliciesThe EUR/USD exchange rate is on a three-day decline, trading around 1.0640. Expected fiscal policies under the Trump administration could negatively impact the European economy, adding downward pressure on the Euro. Continued movement in this direction could push the pair toward its November low of 1.0628, and eventually, the yearly low in April around 1.0601. Pressure on EUR/USD has intensified as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently surpassed the 105 mark, supported by expectations of an expansionary U.S. fiscal policy under President Trump. Simultaneously, German 10-year yields have fallen to monthly lows near the 2.30% zone, reflecting a context of Euro weakness. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve recently cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range between 4.75% and 5.00%. Although inflation is approaching the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of slowing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has taken a cautious stance on December's policy decision, noting that economic uncertainty makes it challenging to provide clear guidance. In Europe, the ECB recently cut the deposit rate to 3.25% but has adopted a cautious approach to future cuts, awaiting upcoming economic data. Meanwhile, the Trump administration may introduce new tariffs on European and Chinese goods and promote expansionary fiscal policies, indirectly supporting inflation and providing the Fed with additional reasons to keep rates steady or pause further cuts. In terms of market positioning, net short positions in the Euro have decreased to 21.6K contracts but remain significant.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle. Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return. Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take. The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive. The Outliers 2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day. 2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative. 2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive. The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Mt.BFX
Trade Review - SYMI plan to be more active and share my trades and insights regularly. Information I swing trade with focus on stock with short term momentum. My trades are identified through a two-step screening process. I use a passive screener outside of market hours to manually select stocks based on structure and position, to allow preparation and prevent too many options. At market open, I run an active screener to track for movement within the watchlist, as timing and momentum in selected stocks can be unpredictable. This allows me to be time efficient, I require no more than 20-30 minutes per open session. Identified through my passive screener outside of market hours, this stock showed an initial momentum move to the upside on the daily timeframe, followed by consolidation near the mean price - a setup conducive to continuation. I occasionally check a higher timeframe (weekly) for context; in this case, it made a overextension to the downside which could follow with a pullback toward the mean (or not). The aim here isn’t to predict but to take a bet / capitalize on potential imbalances when they appear. Thus it was added to the watchlist. At market open, this stock appeared on my active scanner, and when it reached 24.60, I entered as a clear range expansion was forming. I typically scale out at 1R and hold the remaining position for a measured move (projected from the prior momentum move). While the approach is straightforward, I occasionally adjust based on real-time conditions, as seen in this example. Execution details are shown below. Trade Overview • Structure: Bullish Continuation (Daily) and Bearish Pullback (Weekly) • Position: Near mean price (Daily) and extended from mean price (Weekly). • Entry Trigger: Range Expansion Entry Details • Entry Price: 24.60 • Stop Price: 22.07 • Target Price: 34.32 • Expected Risk/Reward: 3.84 R Exit Strategy • Exit Price: Closed 50% at 29.84 and 25% at 29.45. Performance Summary • Result: Price have moved 20.53% with a profit of 2R, trailing 25% with a near SL. I wrote a bit more than usual for this review since it's my first review post, but the real approach itself is quite simple. Future posts will be more concise.
NASDAQ:SYMLong
by Market-Core
What to do the week America votes?The dollar and the Euro depending on the future president of the USA. The most important week, both for the United States and the rest of the world, and also for the currency markets. The choice between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is key for the future of the United States, as well as for the development of economies around the world. On November 5, 2024, Tuesday is the election in the USA. The election of Kamala will definitely not affect the dollar well, while the election of Trump would have a positive effect. But there is one very big BUT. In both elections, unrest is very likely to follow, which would adversely affect the United States. Thus, the "elections 2024" drama will not end with the final decision of the voters. Betting on Gold is much safer in these absolutely uncertain times. Even more so with the news that more and more millionaires are trying to leave the United States. After the employment data, this week, fundamentals will generally be left for later trading when the passions surrounding the election die down. Our advice is to choose gold instead of the dollar or euro. You can't go wrong with gold for medium to long term trading. This week, trading will start neutral in anticipation of the news surrounding the elections, but it is possible that individual players will be quite aggressive in the markets. The probability of very large trade turnovers is very high. In addition to the US election, on Tuesday you can watch the ECB's President Lagarde speech, as well as data on the ISM Services PMI (Oct). On Thursday after the election, pay attention to the Fed Interest Rate Decision, where a 25 basis point cut is expected. If everything around the election goes smoothly (although it is unlikely), then the expected lowering of interest rates in the United States will be the main driving event for the week.
by World-Signals
TASI: HISTORICAL ANALYSIS WITH A LONG TERM STRATEGIC PLANHistorical data analysis of TASI, since its beginning in 1985, shows a peculiar pattern wherein trading TASI for only 6 months in a year for 10 consecutive years yields higher or similar returns compared to buy & hold strategy during the same period. So a profitable strategic trading plan can be made with following Key highlights: 50% capital exposure to the market: trading will be carried out only 6 months out of 12 months. Higher or similar returns when compared to buy & hold strategy for the duration of plan (10 consecutive years). Back testing results since 1985 have shown increase in returns with the rate of 8.8%, 16% & 43%. Returns for the last trading plan (2014-2024) have exceeded 100%: the capital in 2014 would have doubled in 2024 using the strategy. A balanced strategy incorporating the best of both ‘trading’ and ‘investing’ worlds. No worries about daily price action or getting out of trade due to stop loss, while also having the leisure and cash-in-hand for half of the year. A long term plan: 10 consecutive years but only 6 months in each year will be traded. If you like to access the trading plan in full details (with back testing proof in pdf & excel workbook), please reach out to me at: umairx88@gmail.com. Bear in mind that the month of November is not only included in the plan rather it is one of the crucial months of the plan.
TADAWUL:TASI
by Umair88
1
SPX 7-Minute Chart Analysis: Identifying Bullish MomentumThis SPX (S&P 500 Index) 7-minute chart provides a look into intraday bullish momentum using Heikin Ashi candles and moving averages. Here’s a breakdown of the key points and signals observed on this chart: Key Indicators and Signals: Call Signals: The chart shows multiple “Call Signal” indicators (in green) along the trend, which highlight points where buying momentum is potentially entering the market. Each of these signals aligns closely with support areas or pullbacks within the uptrend, offering opportunities for entries in line with the prevailing trend. Moving Averages (Orange and Blue Lines): Orange Line (VWAP): The orange line tracks closer to price action and appears to act as a dynamic support level, with prices bouncing off it several times as the trend progresses upward. This moving average helps confirm the short-term bullish trend. Blue Line (50 EMA or SMA): The blue moving average is further from the price but shows the overall upward trend. The price remains above this line, further confirming that bullish momentum is intact. Heikin Ashi Candles: The Heikin Ashi candles show consistent bullish candles (yellow) with few lower wicks, which indicates strong buying pressure. The limited presence of red candles reflects minor pullbacks rather than trend reversals, which is typical in a sustained uptrend. Gray Support Zone(ORB): There’s a gray support zone below the price AKA the opening range breakout, which was tested but held successfully. This area marks a key support level, as each time the price neared this zone, it bounced back, showing that buyers are defending this level strongly. Analysis and Outlook: Bullish Trend Confirmation: The consistent uptrend in SPX, supported by both moving averages and the strong Heikin Ashi candles, suggests that bullish momentum is likely to continue. The multiple “Call Signals” give confidence in the trend’s strength, indicating potential for further upside. Entry and Exit Opportunities: You could use the pullbacks to the orange moving average or gray support zone as potential entry points, aligning with the overall uptrend. Watch for continued “Call Signal” alerts near these areas for high-probability entries. Key Levels to Watch: Support: Gray zone around 5,719 - 5,720 and the orange moving average. Resistance: Look for any signs of resistance at psychological levels like 5,740 and 5,750, where some profit-taking might occur.
AMEX:IWM
by Deno_Trading
USDJPY: Will the NFP Halt the Dollar?The USD/JPY moves between sustained bullish momentum and possible technical corrections: the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged temporarily strengthened the Yen, pushing the pair below 153, but post-election political uncertainty limits any lasting appreciation of the Japanese currency. Conversely, the US dollar continues to benefit from a favorable economic backdrop, bolstered by a strong labor market and the potential for a gradual Fed approach in the future. Imminent economic data, such as consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, could confirm the US recovery, further boosting Treasury yields and the dollar. From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at 153.90 and 155.10, while a correction toward supports at 151.95 and 149.50 might indicate a pause or reversal of the trend.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD: Ready for a Correction After NFP?Analyzing XAU/USD's movement, the price recently hit a fresh all-time high around $2,790 but then experienced a slight pullback to $2,780. Despite this minor drop, the underlying trend remains strongly bullish, driven by the weakness of the US dollar due to mixed macroeconomic data limiting its demand. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a clear bullish setup, suggesting the potential for further highs until a significant correction occurs. After a brief corrective dip, technical indicators have resumed their ascent into overbought territory, signaling that buyers are ready to capitalize on minor price dips. The price could break the psychological threshold of $2,800 before the US presidential elections, with the potential to discover new highs beyond the recent record of $2,789.72. In October, the private sector added 233K new jobs, surpassing expectations and temporarily strengthening the dollar. However, Q3 GDP growth at 2.8% fell short of forecasts, adding downward pressure on the dollar. The quarterly Core PCE Price Index was 2.2%, down from the previous quarter’s 2.8% but above the 2.1% expectation. Despite this decline, inflation remains within the Fed’s tolerance range, reducing the likelihood of an impact on the central bank’s policy decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Will NFP Make the Dollar Drop?GBP/USD weakens around 1.3010 during the European session on Wednesday, staying within a descending channel since September, as the market awaits key economic data, including the UK Autumn Budget, October’s ADP Employment Change, and US Q3 GDP. A close above 1.2975 could attract buyers, pushing the price toward 1.3050, while support remains at 1.2895. The pound remains vulnerable to potential negative economic surprises or restrictive fiscal measures announced in the Budget, as indicated by Prime Minister Starmer, which could increase volatility. Positive US economic data, especially on employment and growth, could strengthen the dollar and further push GBP/USD lower. I am currently long on GBP/USD from last week, aiming for a 1:4 RR. Currently, I'm at a 1:2 RR with SL at BE, so risk-free. Have a great day and happy trading, everyone!
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Pullback Before the Big Drop?The EUR/USD exchange rate remains stable around 1.0790 during early Asian trading on Monday, yet it faces potential downside pressure due to rising expectations of a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Recent encouraging economic data from the United States has fueled these expectations, suggesting the Fed may adopt a more stringent policy in November, which could strengthen the dollar. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has broken out of its descending regression channel, stabilizing above the upper line. On the downside, support levels are seen at 1.0800 and 1.0750. Last Thursday, EUR/USD displayed some resilience, benefiting from improved market sentiment and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a temporary softening of the dollar. However, the pair remains at a crossroads, awaiting fresh cues from the economic calendar, such as U.S. durable goods orders data, which is expected to show a 1% decline. A stronger-than-expected figure could boost the dollar, while a more significant drop might weaken it, though the effect on EUR/USD could be short-lived. The neutral stance in U.S. index futures partly reflects broader uncertainty, leaving open the possibility that shifts in risk sentiment could impact the dollar; a continuation of risk flows favoring safer assets might keep the USD under pressure. Good trading day!
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD - Daily analysis - Downtrend is over, pay attention to geEURUSD - Daily analysis - Downtrend is over, pay attention to geopolitics. As the elections in the United States approach, we increasingly begin to pay attention to geopolitics, which affects the currency markets, and especially the dollar, at the expense of technical and fundamental analysis. In reality, only one working week remains until the all-important elections, where the world decides which way it will go next. Escalation of the two major conflicts into full-scale wars is a completely possible scenario. This would affect the United States depending on how involved the US would be. A further escalation of the wars could strengthen the dollar as US industry would produce more of the real good - weapons, as opposed to peace, where services are the driving force of the US economy. We expect new developments in the last days of the campaign, be it new attacks against Trump or escalation in the Middle East, after another batch of missile attacks against Tehran (Iran). On Monday, we don't really have any important data for the United States or Europe. On Tuesday we expect data on Consumer Confidence, Housing Price Index and JOLTS Job Openings. Big expectations for fundamental news from the United States are expected in the second half of the week, with the important Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) report at the end. Expectations for Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) are for a sharp decline in the numbers to weaker jobs data. That is why the dollar stopped the EURUSD downward trend in the last almost month. Thus, from the great growth of the dollar (EURUSD) from 1.12 at the end of September, to 1.0761 on October 23, 2024. This trend ended in the 43rd week of this year (the last week) to pass into expectations of a decline in the dollar and return to levels above 1.08. Thus, the downtrend is over and a break below 1.0760 is unlikely until at least Friday. Use the moment to trade in a neutral trend with a move of 25-40 pips or an uptrend in anticipation of levels above 1.0860. Let's also mention the BRICS meeting, which leaves the Dollar as the leading world currency in international payments for now, but more and more the Dollar will give way to the power of China, Russia and the rest of the world.
by World-Signals