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USOIL is approaching $80!The price of Western Texas Intermediate crude oil, the benchmark for US oil, was around $77.50 on Friday. WTI prices rose after weaker-than-expected US retail sales data, fueling hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates in the coming months. The conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian Hamas has yet to see a resolution or significant progress toward a negotiated ceasefire, keeping energy markets nervous about potential spillover into neighboring oil-producing nations like Iran. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) firmly believes that global demand for crude oil will continue to grow over the next two decades, but this perspective is challenged by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which forecasts a decline in global demand in the coming months. The IEA's forecasts predict a slowdown in the growth of global crude oil demand to 1.22 million barrels per day, while OPEC forecasts a long-term increase of more than double that figure. From a technical standpoint, WTI saw its highest bids in nearly three weeks on Friday, testing $78.40 before concluding the week's trading near $78.20 at Friday's close. On the H4 chart, the price is within an upward channel that seems to support the price rally well. However, I expect a slight retracement towards the $75 area, bouncing off the Fibonacci physiological level before heading back towards $80, breaking through the first supply zone and using the second as a resistance level. Nevertheless, the price has good potential to return to November 2023 levels. Regards and happy trading to all.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EURUSD | Will a new rate hike arrive in September?The EUR/USD exchange rate showed a recovery above 1.0750, after touching a daily low near 1.0730 during the American session. This movement was influenced by data from the United States, which indicated an increase in producer inflation in January, higher than expected, and a marginal improvement in consumer confidence in early February. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD remains in a consolidation phase above 1.0750 on Friday, after closing positively in the two previous days. Mixed releases of macroeconomic data from the United States and a positive change in risk sentiment made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to maintain its position, allowing the EUR/USD to extend its recovery. Retail sales in the United States fell by 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, while weekly unemployment claims dropped to 212,000 from 220,000. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a close to 70% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged at the next two monetary policy meetings. Additionally, the euro (EUR) showed a retracement after hitting a new two-day high, as a measure of producer inflation in the United States (US) suggests that the work of the United States Federal Reserve is not yet finished. The EUR/USD fluctuated around the range 1.0770-1.0730 after the PPI data, then stabilizing at current exchange rates. Furthermore, on the European Central Bank front, there was an observation by a member of the Executive Board, Isabel Schnabel, about the need for a restrictive monetary policy, given concerns about a possible inflation rebound. Analyzing an H4 chart, it is evident that the price is in a reversal zone (previous demand zone), within a downtrend channel, I have identified a possible turning point at the level of 1.0824 where the price could rotate and reverse its route towards the level of 1.0650 and the level of 1.0520, the November 2023 minimum. We will see how the price will react during the week and how the operators' sentiment towards the Fed will be. I wish everyone a good weekend, regards Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
USD/JPY: Profitable Strategies in Market TurbulenceThe Japanese yen has strengthened slightly in response to verbal intervention by Japanese authorities. The daily chart shows an upward movement of the pair, with 151.00 as the next resistance level, followed by last year's high of 151.91. USD/JPY reached a three-month peak at 150.81 after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported further confirmation that inflation remains above 3%, albeit slowing down. January's inflation rate exceeded expectations, rising by 3.1% compared to the previous month's 3.4%. Excluding volatile elements, Core CPI remained steady at 3.9% compared to the previous month. Following this data, USD/JPY continued its rise, surpassing 150.00, supported by US Treasury yields. The CME FedWatch indicates that traders seem to be ignoring the possibility of rate cuts in March and May, focusing instead on June. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has shown uncertainty regarding its monetary policy. Although the data suggest potential sustained inflation, uncertainty persists. The Bank of Japan may delay its exit from negative rates. Japanese authorities are ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, as reiterated by Masato Kanda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. The CPI index in the United States exceeded expectations, prompting investors to reconsider their plans for rate cuts and market intervention. We will see what the upcoming data reveal; in the meantime, happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/AUD is expected to reach the level of 1.9440GBP/AUD presents a bullish structure on H4. After the increase in unemployment demand data for Great Britain, the market gained strength by breaking through a supply zone now turned reversal zone, where I now expect a retracement before continuing the uptrend with the target of the supply zone at the level of 1.9440. At that level, two scenarios can be evaluated: a bullish one with the breakout of the zone and the retest before continuing towards 1.96, and a second bearish scenario where a breakout of the bullish trendline is expected with a retest on the lower side of the reversal zone and a continuation short towards 1.92. Stay tuned for further updates, greetings, and happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBP/USD: Impact of UK Inflation and Recovery OutlookGBP/USD has lost its traction and dropped to its lowest level in over a week, near 1.2550, following weak inflation data in the UK on Wednesday. Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that inflation data hadn't really changed their outlook since the February monetary policy decision. After closing in negative territory on Tuesday, GBP/USD continued to decline in Wednesday's European session and touched its lowest level in over a week below 1.2550. The short-term technical outlook suggests that the pair still has room to fall before becoming technically overbought. January's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data triggered a rally in the US dollar during Tuesday's American trading hours and caused a sharp drop in GBP/USD. On a monthly basis, both CPI and Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Both of these figures exceeded analyst estimates and boosted the US dollar. Wednesday morning, the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the annual CPI inflation and core CPI inflation remained steady at 4% and 5.1% respectively. CPI decreased by 0.6% in January, while the monthly Consumer Price Index fell by 0.3%. Although these data aren't weak enough to prompt Bank of England policymakers to consider a policy change, they still make it difficult for the Pound to recover. Inflation is expected to fall to target by spring. What happens to inflation in spring won't determine monetary policy. UK debt demand is strong, has been strong since the beginning of the year. Overall, the situation for the Pound isn't the best considering a likely seasonal dollar rally towards the end of February and March. On the daily chart, a downtrend channel is noticeable after a retest in the supply zone and Fibonacci level 0.705, while I await a breakout of the demand zone at levels 1.2549 and 1.2448, then a retest on the lower side of the same zone and subsequently a bounce at level 1.2320, where we have an additional demand zone and a sensitive Fibonacci level. Upon reaching that level, it will be interesting to evaluate potential upward movement. Greetings and happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBPNZD: Will it have the force to go long? YESThe GBPNZD situation presents a bearish structure, highlighted by three recent touches on the trendline. However, it currently sits within a demand zone on H4, where yesterday I observed a bounce at the 62% Fibonacci level, supported by an H4 candle. This bounce, in my opinion, is worthy of consideration. Shortly after, the market experienced an uptick, also supported by the demand zone, with a structural change to the upside on M15. If we had entered the position yesterday, the trade would still be open and showing a modest profit. Currently, the goal is to await a retest of the demand zone before transitioning from an H4 to an M15 chart, where I will assess whether there will be a structural change to the upside for a long entry. Additionally, I will move my entry directly to the market if the last bearish candle before the impulse shows a pin bar or a doji. Otherwise, if it's a bearish structure candle, I will place a buy limit at the high of that candle. In the event this scenario occurs, my target will be the 2.0952 level, where a previous high with liquidity yet to be filled is located. I will keep you updated on the situation's developments. Best regards and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
NASDAQ: Is it time to go short?Analyzing the NASDAQ, we see several significant factors. The quote is approaching weekly highs, and the performance over the last five days is positive, with a 0.35% increase, indicating strength in the market. However, the volatility over the last five sessions is higher than the three-month average, signaling a period of uncertainty and fluctuations. Nevertheless, both in the previous semester and in the last twenty sessions, a bullish price trend is observed, suggesting a positive long-term trend. Looking at support and resistance levels, the main support area is at 17480.0, while the resistance area is at 18040.0. A potential trend change could occur with a drop below the support area at 17040.0, indicating a possible reversal of the bullish trend. The net speculative positions of traders on NASDAQ 100 futures have decreased compared to the previous week, reflecting some uncertainty among operators about future market prospects. Monitoring the performance of the bond market is crucial, as an increase could shift demand towards bonds at the expense of stocks. Currently, the annual yield of the US ten-year treasury is increasing, which could influence the technical analysis of the NASDAQ. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis at the H4 timeframe level reveals that the market is oscillating around a supply area, suggesting the possibility of a structural change. An approach could be to wait for a change at M15 and then consider entry on the retest of an M15 supply area, with a target at 17560. If the price closes completely outside the M15 supply area, it could change the perspective, requiring further confirmation before deciding on operations. In conclusion, although the NASDAQ shows signs of strength in the short term, it is essential to evaluate volatility and support/resistance levels. Trader positions and the performance of the bond market provide further insights into market sentiment and future prospects. Greetings and happy trading to all.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Smart Money Orderflow M15 ApproachIn this context, we define an intelligent order flow, which is a convergence of flows, in this case, downwards, leading the price to create congestions, i.e., internal breaks, and then consolidation phases, i.e., external breaks, which bring the price into the demand zone, where we should consider opening a long position subsequently. The pattern is clear: demand zone on H4 after a defined structural change with the main consolidation phase, and then we expect a retest in the demand zone, where it is highly likely that the price may reverse its direction, especially when analyzing the market from an M15 perspective. I remain available for further clarifications, greetings, and happy studying to all.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Mitigation + BOS M15 Setup In this scenario, we examine a very common approach: trend continuation. The particular aspect of viewing it in this light compared to simply looking at trendlines is how we can identify demand zones and structural changes called BOS. Prices always tend to retrace in these zones before continuing. Personally, I identify demand or supply zones at H4, and once the price retraces, I look for rebounds at M15. In that timeframe, I aim to identify a structural change to the upside if I'm looking for a long position. Sometimes during an uptrend, it's very common to identify inefficiencies or FVG, which in turn support the price during retracement. Best wishes and happy trading to all.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Pullback After Breakout Entry M15 ApproachIn this model, we define an approach that I personally use a lot, namely the creation of a demand or supply zone on the H4. In this case, we are observing a demand zone. Once the zone has been plotted on the chart, we wait for a retracement on the M15, and as soon as the market shows a structural change, in this case to the upside during the three London, pre-NY, and NY sessions, always considering to have the midnight open behind us, we can enter the market. The target will be the nearest swing high level, always considering to have at least a risk/reward ratio of 1.5. Best regards and have a good day everyone.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
USD/JPY | New High and Low with the Bearish Channel Broken!On the USDJPY front, the potential for a swing analysis is once again evident, highlighted by the recent foray into the supply zone. Specifically, the swing levels prove to be highly sensitive, precisely delineating the actual liquidity areas that the price reaches. Currently, the price stands at 148.39 after a strong breakthrough, following the NFP data, above the upper side of a bearish channel. A retracement is now expected to retest the channel, considering the high sensitivity of the price in the supply zone. Subsequently, a possible upward movement towards 149.50 is anticipated, surpassing the first supply area and bouncing in the second supply area marked on the chart, where a significant sell-off could bring the price back to 144. Turning to the fundamental analysis, the data on Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States has been exceptional, with the creation of 353,000 new jobs, surpassing the forecast of 180,000 and exceeding the upwardly revised December numbers from 216,000 to 333,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous month's data, standing at 3.7%. Following this report, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, closely correlated with the USD/JPY pair, rose from around 3.90% to 4%, gaining more than ten basis points (bps). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, increased by 0.67%, reaching 103.76, after dipping to a low of 102.90. Meanwhile, a hawkish stance by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has increased the likelihood that Governor Kazuo Ueda and his team will end the negative interest rate cycle. Greetings to all and have a great weekend.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
7
GBPUSD is calm before the storm towards 1.27GBP/USD continues to stay in positive territory above 1.2600 during Wednesday's American session. The pair benefited from improved risk sentiment on Tuesday, recording a 0.5% increase and offsetting much of Monday's losses. The decrease in US Treasury bond yields led to the depreciation of the US dollar against its major rivals on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden stated on Wednesday that she is less concerned about further increases in the bank interest rate, emphasizing her focus on the duration of rates at current levels. After a relatively static day, the market created a new demand area after a slight increase, targeting liquidity around 1.2330. Now, I expect a retest of the demand area with a subsequent increase towards 1.2730. I will evaluate the situation tomorrow morning during the opening of the London markets to see if there are conditions for a long entry. Wishing everyone good trades and hoping for increased volatility in the coming days.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD | The situation is crucial after the NFPEUR/USD has recovered to the 1.0750 area and stabilized during the day after dropping towards 1.0720 in Tuesday's European session. The US dollar maintains its strength across the currency market, despite the momentum easing along with the run-up in government bond yields. Financial markets are still digesting the global delays in interest rate cuts, which are not expected to come as soon as anticipated. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its monetary policy decision, leaving rates unchanged as widely expected. However, local policymakers have joined the cautious trend, stating that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Asian stocks saw mixed trading, with Chinese indices supported by government intervention. On the data front, Germany reported an 8.9% month-on-month increase in factory orders in December, surpassing market expectations. Conversely, the Eurozone reported a 1.1% month-on-month decrease in retail sales for the same month, worse than expected. Graphically, the breakout of a downward channel at H4 with a price retest, which may extend further downwards, even though few movements are expected in the coming sessions in the absence of news; expecting major surprises will be difficult. The market may retrace to the 1.0714 level, corresponding to the 62% Fibonacci level, or to the 1.0650 level, i.e., the 0.705% Fibonacci level. So I expect to start evaluating a long position in that area. Greetings and good evening to everyone.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD New lows approaching $2010After a quiet European session near $2,020 on Tuesday, gold turned higher and surpassed $2,030. Following Monday's sharp increase, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond fell by more than 1% during the day, allowing XAU/USD to rise further. Financial markets are all focused on delayed interest rate cuts after central bankers worldwide have tempered investors' expectations for tighter monetary policies. Tuesday saw the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) join the cautious stance, with policymakers deciding to keep the door open for further rate hikes if conditions require. Meanwhile, solid US macroeconomic data have further diminished the chances of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. As a result, government bond yields have risen, supporting the US dollar. Additionally, on a chart level, there is an uncertain recovery in gold, which could return to the $2050 area to regain liquidity at the 0.705 Fibonacci level before dropping to the $2010 zone. This is my expectation at H4, and I will carefully monitor the changes in this pair. Regards and happy trading to all.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1