Equal High & Low SweepToday I wanted to talk about two scenarios concerning market structure: the equal high for a bullish structure and the low sweep for a bearish structure. The crucial point of each setup, as always, is to identify a structural change called BOS. From there, I start looking for a demand or supply zone in the market where we should pay attention to observe the price return. This price return should occur as indicated in the setup, with the market starting to consolidate and form a double bottom or top of momentum. It is also important to consider the presence of a liquidity zone, as this will be our primary target zone, followed by the minimum or maximum of the structure. I wish everyone happy trading and remain available for further discussions on the matter.
Strategy!
The Best Entry on the MarketIn this model, we will examine a tactical approach to achieve high-performance entry. It all starts with an uptrend characterized by continuous structural changes. In fact, there are continuous directional changes until the retest of the supply zone on M30. Subsequently, the market reacts to this zone by pushing downwards and generating a CHoCH. Here, switching to a 1-minute timeframe, it will be possible to wait for a retest of the supply zone before entering. The trade will target the session or daily low. Greetings and happy trading to all.
New Approach on Forex: Inducement LowIn my analysis model, I focus on a bearish structure, where I identify the so-called "false demand zones" (SM Trap). It all starts with a supply zone, where the price begins to decline, creating a liquidity zone with a double bottom. Subsequently, the price retests the supply zone, declines again, and breaks the false demand zone, generating another one. Then, the market starts forming decreasing lows and highs, clear signals of the ongoing bearish trend. This is where I pay attention, as it constitutes a clear signal of the developing trend.
To enter the market, I prefer identifying an FVG M15, targeting weekly, daily lows, or the H4 timeframe, in line with my trading plan. I find it crucial to observe the evolution of lows and highs, as their decrease further confirms the bearish trend.
I wish everyone happy trading and success in their operations.
GBPUSD | 1.2626 will be the new high before the crash!The GBP/USD, after a significant descent, has finally reached the demand zone at the level of 1.2535. In this area, I anticipate a possible upward structural change on M15 during tomorrow's London session. Subsequently, I could consider entering the market with the goal of reaching the level of 1.2626, where a significant liquidity volume is present.
Regarding the fundamental analysis, the GBP/USD has again been subject to bearish pressures, touching the lowest point since mid-December below 1.2550 on Monday. The widespread strength of the US dollar, fueled by impressive labor market data and the recent optimistic PMI report, continues to influence the pair. During the North American trading session, the GBP/USD recorded losses of 0.74%, trading at 1.2535. Factors such as last Friday's US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the weekend keep the US dollar higher in a risk-off context.
Jerome Powell stated in an interview that it is premature to consider rate cuts, emphasizing that the goal of pushing inflation towards its 2% target has not been fully achieved. In last week's January Nonfarm Payrolls report, 353,000 Americans were added to the workforce, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.7%.
US Treasury yields remain high throughout the day, supporting the greenback as investors recalibrate their bets on Fed rate cuts. Last week, they estimated the Federal Funds rate (FFR) to reach 3.96%, but following Powell's weekend comments, they expect it to reach 4.26%. Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises by 0.44%, reaching 104.42.
EURNZD | Rally towards 1.7826 before the Crash!EUR/NZD is showing an upward trend with a rising momentum that aligns perfectly with the demand zone. Here, the price is reacting in the early hours of today, right at the Fibonacci level of 0.62%. This area could propel the price towards the upper part of the bullish channel, approaching the supply zone where a liquidity grab may occur, creating false expectations on the upside above the level of 1.7825. This might be followed by a descent towards the demand zone at 1.7580, which the price has not yet touched.
It is precisely in that area that I will assess a long entry with a structural change at the M15 level. Currently, the strategy is to be patient and await a retest. I will keep you updated on the evolving situation. Greetings and happy trading to everyone.
The Best Strategy of 2024: Reversal Entry ModelGood morning, today I would like to draw your attention to a model that I am integrating into my analyses for this year. In this model, we define simple structural changes either downwards or upwards, in this context downwards using two BOS. Subsequently, we define the main demand zone where the price retests. After the retest, the price breaks upwards the structure creating a CHOCH, or an internal breakout. Afterwards, the price will move into a lateral phase accumulating a lot of liquidity, and as it is known, as soon as the price absorbs liquidity above or below a range, it then moves in the opposite direction of the filled liquidity. In this case, liquidity is absorbed below in the order block zone and the price moves upwards. I recommend supplementing charts with this model and identifying these setups starting from an H4 timeframe which can be simpler compared to smaller timeframes. Best regards and happy trading to everyone.
The Ultimate Strategy | ChoCh + InducementThis strategy is based on identifying a market structure, which can be bullish or bearish. In this specific case, a bullish structure characterized by rising highs and lows is considered. The expectation is for the market to change direction, creating a shock. Subsequently, the formation of a liquidity block is observed during a market consolidation phase, followed by entering a demand zone where the imbalance dictates, and the response is a downward movement, as anticipated. The target of this movement is defined graphically. Greetings and happy trading to everyone.
XAUUSD - Following The Gold🥇Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 Gold has been overall bullish, trading within the rising broadening wedge in blue.
At present, Gold is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
Moreover , it is retesting a strong support zone marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #Gold approaches the lower purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
High probability setupThis is what I'm going to be looking in the market for the next long term journey, this is a special setup based on patience, strategy and price action, high probabilities and high R:R, works better in high timeframes, we have just wait for the firt confirmation which is:
1. Shift of structure, after watching that we have to look for:
2. A good RESISTANCE/SUPPORT zone where the price is rejecting in Daily of 4H and search for a:
3. Chart pattern which can be a HEAD AND SHOULDERS OR DOUBLE BOTTOM, DOUBLE TOP..., if we have these confirmations, we can look for the last which is:
4. Candlestick pattern: in the shift of the structure which can be an engulfing, an evening/morning star or marubozu, also can be a doji with the wick for our direction
Each one of these confirmations are 22% probabilities for our strategy, after getting all them we can enter the trade, put the stop loss a bit above or below the last structure point and take a 1:3 risk reward and the most important part is:
SET THE TRADE AND FORGET, Allow the price to go where it has to go, don't change the T.P, don't change the S.L, accept the risk of the trade and take a loss if is the case or take a win if the market allows that, and continue with the plan, IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A 100% CHANCES, so even if you have all this confirmation, you can lose and you have to ACCEPT IT, for that:
Stick to the RISK MANAGEMENT thinking in percentage, I recommend to use a 1%-2% per trade, and that's all
BE PATIENT AND SMART, THINK IN LONG TERM
Remember: "The market is a mechanism for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"
MA Mastercard Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold MA on its exposure to Russia news:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MA Mastercard prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 450usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $7.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
GBPUSD | Swing & Fundamental AnalysisFinally, the market has reacted after the decisions of the FED, BOC, BOE, ECB, BOJ, CPI, NFP, breaking free from a congestion phase. Today's data highlighted the resilience and strong growth of the American labor market, with inflation still below the 2% target. The possibility of a Fed rate cut in June is on the table, but remains uncertain; I strongly doubt it will happen in March or May.
GBPUSD presents a bearish structure with an H4 candle that broke the entire structure, landing in the demand zone at the 1.262 level. Personally, I foresee a continuation to the downside, at least below 1.26, then retracing to the 50% Fibonacci level and consolidating in the reversal zone intersecting with the trendline, before continuing the downward trend towards the 1.2520 area as the final target.
This is what I am currently observing at the H4 level. In summary, it's time to celebrate because after two weeks of sideways movement, today we've seen the first signs of momentum from the market. So, get ready for a spectacular start to the week with an acceleration from traders. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
15M Pro OrderFlow | A Unique and Profitable StrategyIn this approach, we will outline one of the best entry points on M15. The model involves quickly assessing a potential demand area by identifying a liquidity zone formed during the Fibonacci retracement at the .62-0.78 level. From this zone, the market initiates a physiological uptrend before retracing downward, creating a sharp movement with an internal break, followed by a bounce in the demand area. It is at this moment that a precise entry will be executed, aiming to reach the structure's peak. It is important to note that this model is also applicable to H1, H4, and Daily time frames. Greetings to everyone and happy trading.
EURUSD | False Bearish Setup - The Bulls are arrivingDuring Monday's American session, the EUR/USD continued its descent, reaching below 1.0800 for the first time since mid-December. Market caution favored the strength of the US dollar, negatively impacting the pair ahead of key events for the week. Despite a modest bounce from a January low at 1.0813, widespread dollar weakness prevented further declines. Daily technical analyses suggest a bearish outlook, with resistance around the 200 Simple Moving Average at 1.0845. The short-term situation is also negative, with the EUR/USD below all moving averages and bearish technical indicators. In this context, the euro is the weakest currency against the dollar at the beginning of the week, with bets on a rate cut in April despite opposition from the ECB. Peter Kazimir suggests a cut is more likely in June, citing positive signs of disinflation. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasizes inflation progress but reassures that they are not yet ready for a cut. Monday's macroeconomic calendar is sparse, but the week will see significant events, including Eurozone and Germany's GDP, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, and January Nonfarm Payrolls report. The chart shows a well-defined long position, greetings to all.
GBPUSD : Mitigation Before the Fed and of a New HighThe GBP/USD remains in a defensive position, trading in the negative territory around 1.2650 during the American session on Tuesday. The careful market approach is assisting the USD in maintaining resilience against its competitors following a release of mixed data. This cautious sentiment is putting pressure on the currency pair as it approaches the upcoming Fed and BoE meetings. The GBP/USD experienced little change at the beginning of the week but encountered slight bearish pressure early on Tuesday. During the European session, the pair is trading below 1.2700, and the technical analysis suggests a lack of interest from buyers. The prudent market stance is bolstering the US Dollar (USD), creating challenges for the GBP/USD to gain momentum on Tuesday. Investors are particularly uneasy about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. This negative sentiment is reflected in US stock index futures, which are trading in the red. Concurrently, the FTSE 100 Index in the UK opened higher but retreated slightly. If Wall Street's main indices turn positive after the opening bell, the USD might weaken, aiding the GBP/USD in limiting its losses. The US economic calendar will highlight December JOLT Job Openings data and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for January, which improved to 110.7 from 101.0 in November. While a positive sentiment could boost demand for the USD, investors are unlikely to take significant positions ahead of the policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
The price has reacted well in the demand zone at the 1.26-1.2640 level with a bounce at the 0.705 Fibonacci level. The upward movement seems interesting, but I don't believe the price can gather much momentum given the swing high at the 1.2720 level and the high liquidity that the price could absorb before retracing further. So, I expect another day of consolidation awaiting the Fed, and then we'll see if the price can indeed push higher towards the 1.2750 area as the first target. I will keep you updated on the situation, keep an eye on macro data. Happy trading to all, greetings from Nicola.
SMC Sell Setup: High Probability EntryGood morning everyone, today we will explore a short entry model using the concepts of smart money. This model involves entering the market in a short position after a series of specific patterns. Firstly, we start with a bearish structure where the price breaks a significant low, creating a BOS. Subsequently, we will identify the SMC zone, which is a trap zone to avoid. In this zone, the price makes a false descent before rising, creating the most important peak that we will use to evaluate a short entry.
After identifying this peak, the market begins to decline, forming a CHOCH, representing an internal break. This will signal our sell point, and we could define our sell zone indicated by the POI on the chart. Once the price enters this zone, we may consider opening a short position on the security. Greetings to everyone.
EURJPY | Sell Idea after the FEDEURJPY broke below 159 in the hours leading up to the FED, and as per the manual, the yen gained strength before the most anticipated event of the month. Now the price is in a reversal zone, specifically around the 62-78 Fibonacci levels, and I anticipate a retracement to the 160 level where a supply zone has just been formed after breaking a crucial swing low. When the price returns to the 160 level, I will consider a short entry if the market on the H4 chart retraces to crucial Fibonacci levels, forming well-defined spikes, and if on the M15 chart, the price structurally breaks downward. Always keeping in mind the presence of a midnight spike indicator, I will enter the market only if there is a recovery margin of at least 1.5%, risking 1%. Therefore, it will be crucial to assess whether the descent is free from liquidity constraints. Greetings and happy trading to all; the FED meeting awaits us.
GBPCAD could go up to 1.7138 after the BOEGBPCAD has started to show upward strength after bouncing at the 1.70 level, where a demand zone is located. The price underwent a significant structural change on the M15 timeframe yesterday, presenting a trading opportunity that could have yielded a 1% profit before the release of Canadian data. Personally, I did not execute that trade. Currently, it appears to be resuming its trajectory towards the higher swing point, where there is liquidity to fill at the 1.7138 level. Today, the BOE interest rates are expected, so pay attention to potential entries during the London session and possible spikes during the rate announcement. Personally, I would consider an entry, provided the conditions are met, after the rate announcement to have a more comprehensive view of the chart and macroeconomic factors. Naturally, I will assess a structural change to the upside on the M15 to confirm my long-term bullish outlook. Greetings and happy trading to everyone.
Xau/Usd 2hHello traders!
As we can see, the pair managed to capture a new price at the level (2056.00). In my opinion, the pair should hit the level (2052.00) and then start a decline towards the level (2026.00) where we will then see a rise towards the level (2071.00). The market is showing instability because of the economic news and because of the war. Be careful! Don`t forget to look at the economic calendar!
MAKE MONEY AND ENJOY LIFE 💰
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GOOD LUCK!
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Perfect ChoCh : Entry + SetupWith this trading model, I aim to share with the community a particularly significant approach that has revolutionized my way of operating in the markets, especially on shorter timeframes such as 1, 5, and 15 minutes. This model involves defining a clear structure before entering the market, specifically a demand zone already present in the market. A price that reaches this zone through a double structural break (BOS) before rallying and creating an internal break (ChoCh) before returning to the demand zone. Subsequently, the price will surpass the previous high, thereby defining a new demand zone. One will then await the price to reach this zone, and once there, enter the market with the aim of reaching the supply zone depicted on the chart.
XAU/USD | Bullish trend ready to reach $2060.Gold has shown a reversal in trend, dropping below $2,030 after an initial increase to $2,040. Despite the strength of the US dollar, XAU/USD has maintained positive territory thanks to the decline in US yields and growing tensions in the Middle East. On the daily chart, the pair has modest intraday gains but remains below a 20-period simple moving average (SMA). Longer-term moving averages lack directionality. Technical indicators have slightly improved but remain negative, indicating limited upside prospects. In the short term (4-hour chart), XAU/USD is in a neutral phase, with moving averages lacking directional strength. Technical indicators suggest diminishing short-term buying interest. Support levels are at $2,019.20, $2,010.00, and $2,001.60, while resistance levels are at $2,033.10, $2,040.30, and $2,052.60. The week saw gold open with a higher gap at $2,037.46, but the dollar recovered during the American session. Geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and Iran, have influenced the markets. Investors are awaiting economic data and monetary policy decisions, with a focus on earnings and comments from the ECB attempting to temper expectations of an interest rate cut in April.
NASDAQ | Bearish triangle with a retest at 15,430During the day on January 26th, the index of US technology stocks, likely the Nasdaq 100, recorded a negative performance, closing with a moderately negative percentage change of 0.55%. The day started with difficulties, opening at 17,430 points, approximately near the lowest level of the previous day. Despite this, the index showed reasonable resilience throughout the session but ultimately closed weakly at 17,420 points, near the day's lows. An analysis of the status and trend suggests that in the medium term, the Nasdaq 100 confirms the presence of an upward trend. However, in the short term, it appears that the positive momentum is diminishing at the resistance test identified at 17,510 points, with the first support located at 17,330 points. Expectations are leaning towards a negative extension in the short term, with a target set at 17,230 points.
PTON Peloton Interactive Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PTON Peloton Interactive prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 8usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $1.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
PTON might be a buyout this year. From one of these giants: AAPL, AMZN or NKE!