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USDCAD | Waiting for a pullback to 1.3365 before the bullrun!Currently, the US dollar is gaining ground, benefiting from a weaker market sentiment. Oil prices are trading lower, exerting negative pressure on the Canadian dollar (CAD). Later today, we hope that Canada's business outlook and manufacturing sales can provide some support to the Canadian dollar. On this Monday, the Canadian dollar is showing a mixed performance against major currencies but has lost weight against the US dollar, given the reduced trading volume due to the US holiday. Personally, I am interested in the data on Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, with expectations of a slight annual increase. Mainly, I anticipate a decline around 1.3365 with a possible reversal at M15 and a strengthening of the US dollar, leading to an increase up to 1.3540. Best regards and happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Choch Entry & Liquidity Model | Trading StrategyIntroduction: The trading strategy "Choch Entry & Liquidity Model" has emerged as an innovative model in the financial domain, focusing on market entry and liquidity. This approach is built upon key principles aimed at maximizing returns and effectively managing risk. Fundamental Principles: The strategy relies on an entry approach known as "Choch Entry," which is presumed to provide precise trading signals based on specific indicators. This method aims to capture significant price movements through a detailed analysis of market data. Liquidity Management: Another distinctive element of this strategy is its focus on liquidity. The "Liquidity Model" seeks to optimize order execution, ensuring that the strategy can enter and exit the market efficiently, minimizing slippage and price impact. Practical Implementation: The practical implementation of this strategy requires a thorough understanding of financial instruments and indicators used in the model. Traders must be able to adapt the strategy to changing market conditions and constantly monitor key variables to make informed decisions. Risks and Challenges: As with any trading strategy, it is crucial to understand the potential risks and challenges associated with the "Choch Entry & Liquidity Model" strategy. Market volatility, sudden changes in economic conditions, and other factors can influence outcomes. Conclusions: The "Choch Entry & Liquidity Model" trading strategy represents an intriguing approach that combines targeted entry with careful liquidity management. Its effectiveness depends on the trader's proficiency in consistently and flexibly applying key principles, adapting them to the changing dynamics of the market.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
XAUUSD Waiting the level 2065 to go short!Gold prices continue to rise for the third consecutive day on Monday, reaching around $2,055 per troy ounce. The upward movement is attributed to the risk aversion stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Immediate resistance is observed at the January 5 high of $2,060, with static resistance at $2,080 to be tested if surpassed. Sustained upbeat momentum may lead to a retest of the $2,100 barrier. However, if Gold encounters sellers at higher levels, triggering a pullback, the initial contention point becomes the 21-day SMA resistance-turned-support at $2,046. A daily closing below this level is crucial to negate the renewed uptrend. Gold is capitalizing on persistent uncertainty in the market, with investors digesting recent fundamental developments at the start of the week on Monday. The US Dollar is fluctuating in a light market due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. On Friday, the US Dollar slipped after an unexpected decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US in December, increasing bets on a Fed rate cut in March and dragging down US Treasury bond yields. Market pricing now indicates a 78% probability that the US central bank will start cutting rates in March, up from 68% the previous week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The main focus this week remains on Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech, US Retail Sales data, and Chinese quarterly GDP numbers. Best regards and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
BTC/USD pullback expected, now heading towards 200K!Analyzing the BTC/USD scenario reveals an expansion of the bearish phase with a test of support at 40,980. The initial resistance is at 45,465, but expectations suggest the possibility of an extension of the negative trend towards new lows at 39,485. From a daily volatility perspective, the cryptocurrency shows a value of 2.79%, with a weekly performance registering at -3.16%. The reasons behind Bitcoin's decline after the historic spot ETF approval are as follows: There was strong speculation leading up to the ETF approval; now that it's approved, there is less for people to speculate on. Many expected a surge to $55,000 after approval, and since that didn't happen, people are either taking profits or selling in disappointment. Bitcoin surged from $15,400 to $49,000 with FOMO elements related to the ETF, so a correction was naturally due. This could be a sell-the-news event for many who bought Bitcoin before it reached $20,000. Money is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum. People are selling BTC and buying ETH because they anticipate an ETH spot ETF is coming, and since ETH hasn't surged much, they are moving to an undervalued asset. Positive aspects that many people overlook: The Bitcoin ETF generated a total volume of $4.3 billion, a historic result for any ETF in history. Now that Bitcoin is available to all Wall Street traders, trillions will flow into the market over time. The Bitcoin ETF instills trust in cryptocurrencies. Personal opinion: The Bitcoin ETF will become increasingly popular on Wall Street, and we will see companies allocating billions to Bitcoin over time, easily propelling BTC to $100,000 - $200,000+. Following the SEC approval of the first Bitcoin ETFs, we observed a temporary dip in BTC's value, dropping to around $48,000 before recovering a significant portion of the weekly movement and slipping below the previous week's highs. Currently, the overall cryptocurrency market reflects a negative trend, with Ethereum standing out positively compared to other cryptocurrencies. Thanks to ETH's strength and BTC's weakness, the ETHBTC pair exhibits a +17% performance this week, approaching the technical price level of 0.06. BTC (49 weeks on the rise) TRX (7 weeks in decline) ETH (49 weeks in decline) DOGE (49 weeks in decline)
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
GBPUSD | Big pullback before the significant rally in 2024The analysis of GBP/USD reveals a dynamic interplay of factors influencing the currency pair. The British Pound (GBP) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD), recovering from a decline to 1.2700 and surpassing 1.2750. This recovery is linked to challenges the USD faces in generating demand during the American session, partly influenced by softer-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data for December. Technically, GBP/USD maintains a bullish stance, staying above the lower limit of an ascending regression channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50, indicating positive momentum. Key resistance levels are at 1.2780, 1.2830, and 1.2860, while supports lie at 1.2750, 1.2710-1.2700, and 1.2670. The positive shift in market sentiment, along with UK GDP growth in November, supports GBP/USD. US inflation data, with a 3.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, initially boosted the USD, but skepticism remains about the Fed refraining from a rate cut in March. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 70% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut. The broader economic context, including inflation trends, central bank expectations, and global market sentiment, will continue to shape the GBP/USD exchange rate. This was a brief overview of the GBP/USD landscape; I'll now turn to the chart for my personal expectations and explanation. Greetings and a good weekend to everyone from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
US100 - LONG OPPORTUNITY / BREAKOUT 🚀💰CAPITALCOM:US100 - LONG OPPORTUNITY / BREAKOUT Fundamental: Nasdaq is currently up leading into earnings. Expecting continued growth and a lower PPI data result which will benefit the continued growth of the Nasdaq. Technical Analysis: Market is currently ranging/consolidating on the shorter timeframe until PPI data drops. This is expected on big new releases. Trend: Market is currently on a continued up-trend looking to make higher highs. Only long trades are valid. Strategy: Waiting for PPI data to drop before entering for breakout trade on the 3/5 minute timeframe to the long side. Stop loss just below previous low within the range. Risking 1% of the account size. Let me know if you agree and what your expectations are for the day. 🚀💰
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ryan-L
EURUSD | Level 1.1. strategy approach!Analysis of the EUR/USD Situation: Current Situation and Support/Resistance Levels: EUR/USD remains in a positive position, below the 1.1000 threshold. Key support and resistance levels to consider are: Support: If EUR/USD falls below the 2024 low of 1.0876, it could approach the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0846. Breaking this level might lead to the December 2023 lows at 1.0723, followed by the October 2023 weekly and yearly lows at 1.0495 and 1.0448, and finally the psychological level of 1.0400. Resistance: A breakout from the short-term consolidation could reach the recent high area at 1.0998 and, if surpassed, might indicate a move towards 1.1139. Technical Indicators: The MACD is showing signs of recovery, indicating a potential short-term rebound. The RSI has risen above 53, suggesting some bullish momentum. Influence of the US Dollar and Fed Policy: Higher-than-expected US CPI in December 2023 strengthened the dollar, leading investors to revise expectations of Fed rate cuts in Q2. Comments from Fed's L. Mester highlight that rate cuts are not being considered yet and further evidence of economic progress is needed. She emphasized the importance of a consistent decrease in inflation before considering possible rate cuts. Relevant Economic Data: No data releases in the domestic calendar and a rise in US headline CPI by 3.4% year-to-year to December, and 3.9% from the previous year for Core CPI. Initial weekly claims increased to 202K in the week ending January 6. Outlook: The optimistic outlook for the EUR/USD pair is expected to remain unchanged as long as it stays above the 200-day SMA. However, economic data and Fed policy will continue to significantly influence the pair, especially considering market caution and anticipation of further data and ECB and Fed speeches. In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is in a delicate phase, with clear support and resistance levels to monitor. Fed policy and economic data will play a crucial role in determining the direction of the exchange rate. Personally, I predict a price rebound in the support zone with an NFP spike, a neutral week in conclusion, and a price outlook in the 1.111 area for next week. Greetings from Nicola and best wishes for successful trading to everyone.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOIL long: Market dynamics and Future outlookThe analysis of the US oil market (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) presents an intriguing scenario. Currently, the WTI price is recovering from recent losses, trading around $72.33 per barrel. This rise in oil prices is driven by concerns about potential supply disruptions following recent events, where Yemen's Houthis have questioned the UN resolution on Red Sea navigation. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD pair has fallen close to 1.3360, failing to stay above the crucial resistance of 1.3400. The Canadian dollar continues to struggle as the demand for safe-haven assets decreases due to an improved risk appetite among market participants. In the oil sector, prices are showing a moderate recovery as tensions in the Middle East deepen. Attacks on commercial oil tankers passing through the Red Sea are causing shipment delays and supply shortages. It is noteworthy that Canada is the leading exporter of oil to the United States, and higher oil prices support the Canadian dollar. My forecast, also backed by the rally of the USD/CAD pair, is for a long entry at the December low. Following the five-year seasonal trend, the pair should start rising from January until March. I will continue to provide updates on this position. Greetings from Nicola.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDCAD| Bearish sentiment awaiting the CPI!The USD/CAD pair is facing selling pressure for the second consecutive day, moving away from a near four-week high around the 1.3415 region, reached on Tuesday. Currently, spot prices are hovering around the 1.3365-1.3360 area, down just over 0.10% for the day. Traders are now awaiting the latest US consumer inflation figures for further momentum. The upcoming US CPI report is set to influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy decisions, subsequently impacting the demand for US dollars (USD) and providing a new direction for the USD/CAD pair. Amidst the anticipation of key US data, the dollar continues its consolidative price movement, confined within a one-week trading range due to uncertainty about when the US central bank will start reducing interest rates. Meanwhile, an increase in Crude Oil prices is supporting the commodity-linked Loonie, adding to the selling pressure on the USD/CAD pair. However, any significant rise in oil prices seems elusive due to the bearish fundamental backdrop. The EIA report on Wednesday revealed an unexpected weekly build in US inventories, heightening concerns that global oil consumption will slow in 2024. Additionally, diminishing prospects for a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed, which supports high US Treasury bond yields, favor USD bulls and help limit losses for the USD/CAD pair. Therefore, I expect a drop to the 1.3232 area with a long rebound around 1.35. Wishing everyone good trading, greetings from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GOLD| Time to evaluate a short entry!Analyzing XAU/USD, we can outline a detailed picture of the current situation and future prospects: Current Situation: Gold is struggling to make a decisive move in any specific direction mid-week. After rising above $2,030, gold lost momentum and retreated towards $2,020. The markets are awaiting the outcome of the 10-year US Treasury note auction. Macro Factors and Upcoming Events: A sparse macroeconomic calendar and upcoming top-tier events are keeping investors in cautious mode. Wall Street opened positively, attempting to reverse some of its recent losses, but trading remains uneventful. Influence of US Inflation Data: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, set to be released on Thursday, could significantly impact gold prices. An annual CPI increase of 3.2% is expected, slightly higher than the previous 3.1%, but the core CPI increase is expected to decline. Market Expectations Regarding the Fed: Market participants are betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might start cutting rates as early as March. This expectation is due to decreasing inflationary pressures, despite recent data showing a tight labor market. Recent Price Dynamics: Gold price (XAU/USD) saw a pause in its recovery on Wednesday, with investors focusing on US inflation data. The gold price recovery is expected to be short-lived due to investor confidence that the Fed will begin rate cuts starting in March. Technical Analysis: Gold price is aiming for stability above $2,030. It found intermediate support after correcting more than 3% from the high of December 28, 2023, around $2,090. Short-term demand for gold is no longer bullish, with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $2,038 acting as a strong barrier. The broader trend remains bullish, with the 50- and 200-day EMAs sloping upwards. Further downside may occur if gold falls below the three-week low around $2,016. External Factors and Future Indications: The 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped to near 4.04% in anticipation of inflation data. The options market is showing signs of hedging against a negative outcome. Remarks by the President of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams, could further influence gold prices. Conclusion: Currently, gold prices are influenced by a combination of expectations about the Fed's interest rates, US inflation data, and market sentiment. The future direction of the price will likely be determined by upcoming inflation data and Fed policies. My personal expectation is the 62% Fibonacci level at 1966.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD Expected to Decline in JanuaryEconomic and Political Context: Market Sentiment: The GBP/USD exhibits a positive trend above 1.2700 during Wednesday's European session, bolstered by an improvement in market sentiment and renewed weakness in the US Dollar. Influence of Bank of England (BoE) Policy: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to defend the decision to tighten policy to combat inflation. If he leaves the door open for further rate hikes, this could strengthen the pound, pushing GBP/USD upwards. Geopolitical Situation: Concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices and inflation could drive flows towards safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar. Technical Factors: Daily Chart Technical Analysis: The GBP/USD price shows a potential supply zone around the 1.2880 level. This could be a key point for a possible change in direction, where a short position might be considered. Price Target: A potential target for a short position might be around the 1.2550 level, aligning with a bounce from the bullish trend line. Recent Trend: The pair broke a four-day winning streak on Tuesday, suggesting caution among investors. Other Relevant Factors: 10-Year US Treasury Note Auction: The auction results could affect the yield of US Treasury notes and, consequently, the value of the US Dollar. A high yield could strengthen the dollar, while a lower-than-expected yield could weaken it. Conclusion and Trading Strategy: The combination of these factors suggests a cautious yet attentive approach to trading opportunities. Bailey's testimony and the US Treasury note auction are key events to monitor, as they could significantly influence the direction of GBP/USD. My prediction involves entering a short position near the 1.2880 level with a target around 1.2550, and tomorrow's American CPI data will be of vital importance and impact.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
EURUSD| Will the level 1.11 be the next high?Current Trading Range: The EUR/USD pair has been traded within a narrow range, roughly between 1.0930 and 1.0925. This suggests a consolidation phase following recent movements. Impact of Upcoming CPI Data: The market is anticipating the forthcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Scheduled for release on Thursday, these figures might significantly influence the pair, potentially breaking the current trading range. Recent Price Movements: Initially, the pair exhibited a slight upward trend earlier this week but retreated to around the 1.0900 level. This level seems to be providing support, partly due to what has been termed 'Turnaround Tuesday'. USD Strength and Safe Haven Appeal: The USD Index (DXY) has reached new two-day highs near 102.70, propelled by investors turning to safe-haven assets. This shift is partially attributed to caution ahead of the U.S. inflation data and consumer sentiment reports. Influence of Bond Yields: The unclear direction in U.S. yields across different timelines, along with the rise in German 10-year bund yields to around 2.20%, are also affecting EUR/USD dynamics. Central Bank Policies: The differing approaches of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding interest rate adjustments are crucial. The Fed has been more proactive, whereas the ECB maintains a more subdued approach, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year. Macro-Economic Factors: Disappointing industrial production figures from Germany have fostered a bearish sentiment for the Euro. However, an improvement in the unemployment rate across the broader Eurozone has provided some relief. Technical Analysis: The EUR/USD pair is consolidating near 1.0930. Resistance is anticipated at 1.0950, followed by the psychological barrier at 1.1000. A break above 1.1000 could lead the pair to retest the previous week’s high at 1.1038. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below 50 indicates bearish momentum. In summary, the EUR/USD pair is currently in a consolidation stage, influenced by the expectations of key economic data releases, central bank policies, and macroeconomic factors. Technical indicators point to a bearish momentum, but upcoming data could potentially lead to significant movements. I have highlighted a possible bullish scenario with a target of 1.11. Currently, the price is above the support zone and is consolidating. Without significant macro data, the price showed little movement in Tuesday's session. I will share further updates if I develop additional thoughts on EUR/USD. Best wishes and happy trading to everyone, from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
NASDAQ| It's time for a short reaction!The Nasdaq shows a significant rise in today's trading session. At the time of writing, the index has gained 460 points from the January 5th low. I've drawn two Fibonacci retracements to identify two potential areas: a bounce at the 0.62 Fibonacci level, illustrated in the chart, and a possible price reaction. Mainly, I expect a decline in the index tomorrow in anticipation of U.S. economic data. Wishing everyone successful trading.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
USOIL| Level 74$ will be decisive!Analyzing the oil market, we see that WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is priced around $72.55 per barrel, while Brent is at $77.71 per barrel. Several key factors are influencing the current oil market scenario. Saudi Price Reduction: Saudi Arabia's decision to lower the prices of its oil exports to Asia has contributed to a bounce back in prices from the Monday low of $70. This move might increase the competitiveness of Saudi oil in the Asian market, thus impacting the global market. Decline in Inflation and Oil Demand: The fall in oil prices is welcomed by analysts and fund managers as it could lead to a further decrease in inflation. Stock Market Dynamics and DXY Index: The steady state of the US Dollar Index (DXY) around 102.00, despite some selling pressures, and the strengthening of US and Japanese stock markets, indicate investor confidence, which could positively affect the oil market. Geopolitical Tensions: Despite geopolitical tensions, such as the recent elections in Taiwan and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, markets seem to be overlooking these risks, which could keep the oil market stable in the short term. Russian Compliance with OPEC+ Cuts: Russia is adhering to the production cuts agreed upon in the last OPEC+ meeting, helping to balance the market supply. Speculations and Realpolitik: Rumors that shipping companies paid fees to Houthi rebels for safe passage in the Red Sea, though denied, demonstrate the market's sensitivity to such news. US Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Israel could have implications for the security of maritime passages and, consequently, the oil market. US CPI Expectations: With the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), a further decrease in oil prices could be expected, potentially stimulating demand. Technical Analysis: The $74 level is pivotal for WTI; we might see a bullish breakout towards $80 or a pullback towards $71. Happy trading to everyone.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
Master Candlesticks: The key trading success!Here's an analysis of various candlestick patterns commonly used in technical analysis of financial markets: Dragonfly Doji: This candlestick has a small body with a long lower shadow and no upper shadow, indicating significant price exploration lower but closing near the opening price. It is often interpreted as a signal of a potential bullish reversal. Morning Star: A bullish reversal pattern that forms in a downtrend. It consists of three candles: a long bearish candle, followed by a shorter candle signifying uncertainty, and a third long bullish candle. Doji: The Doji is a candle with a very small body, indicating that the opening and closing prices are nearly equal. This pattern reflects market indecision. Three Bullish Candles: This pattern consists of three consecutive bullish candles, often interpreted as a strong bullish signal, especially if it occurs after a downtrend. Three Bearish Candles: Opposite to the Three Bullish Candles, this pattern shows three consecutive bearish candles and can indicate a strong bearish signal. Bullish Engulfing: A two-candle pattern where a bullish candle follows and completely "engulfs" the body of the preceding bearish candle. It indicates a potential trend reversal to the upside. Hammer: This candle has a small body and a long lower shadow, indicating that the market has rejected lower prices. It's considered a bullish reversal signal. Gravestone Doji: Similar to the Dragonfly but with a long upper shadow and no lower shadow, suggesting that prices rose but were then rejected, often interpreted as a bearish reversal signal. Hanging Man: This candle resembles a Hammer but occurs at the top of an uptrend, suggesting that bearish pressure is starting to emerge. Morning Doji Star: A variation of the Morning Star, where the middle candle is a Doji. This pattern further strengthens the indication of a potential bullish reversal. Each of these candle formations provides valuable insights into market sentiments and potential trend reversals. However, it's important to use them in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis for greater reliability. Have a nice trading day.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
Gold price recovers further from multi-week low, upside potentiaTechnical Analysis: Gold price might struggle to capitalize on the modest intraday positive move From a technical perspective, any subsequent move up is likely to confront some resistance near the $2,040 horizontal zone, above which the Gold price could aim to retest Friday's swing high, around the $2,063-2,064 region. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $2,077 area, which if cleared decisively will negate any near-term negative outlook and allow bulls to reclaim the $2,100 round figure. On the flip side, the overnight swing low, around the $2,017-2016 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near the $2,012-2,011 area. This is followed by the $2,000 psychological mark, below which the Gold price could accelerate the slide towards the $1,988-1,986 intermediate support en route to the December low, around the $1,973 area and the $1,962 confluence, comprising the 100- and the 200-day SMAs •Gold price attracts some buyers on Tuesday and draws support from a weaker US Dollar. •A fall in consumer inflation expectations boosts Fed rate-cut bets and undermines the buck. •Elevated US bond yields and a positive risk tone cap gains ahead of the US CPI on Thursday. Gold price (XAU/USD) gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday and moves away from a near three-week low, around the $2,017-2,016 region touched the previous day. A fall in US Consumer Inflation Expectations boosts market bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates as early as March. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive for the second successive day and turns out to be a key factor benefitting the non-yielding yellow metal. Investors, however, have been scaling back their expectations for a more aggressive Fed policy easing in the wake of hopes for a soft landing for the US economy, bolstered by a still-resilient labor market. Adding to this, the recent hawkish remarks by several Fed officials have raised uncertainty about the possibility of early interest rate cuts, which remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. This should help limit losses for the USD and cap any further gains for the Gold price. Apart from this, a positive trading sentiment around the Asian equity markets might further contribute to keeping a lid on the safe-haven XAU/USD. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures on Thursday for cues about the Fed's future policy decision. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the Gold price. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from Fed easing bets, modest USD weakness •The New York Federal Reserve said in a report on Monday that US consumers' projection of inflation over the short run fell to the lowest level in nearly three years in December, which undermines the US Dollar and benefits the Gold price. •Inflation one year from now is expected to be at 3%, marking the lowest reading since January 2021, while inflation three years from now is seen at 2.6% and price pressures five years ahead were at 2.5% versus 2.7% in November. •The data reaffirms expectations for an imminent shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance, though investors continue scaling back their expectations for more aggressive policy easing in the wake of a still-resilient US economy. •Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that inflation has declined more than expected and that the US central bank still needs to give tight policy time to work on cooling off inflation. Bostic sees two 25 bps cuts by year-end 2024. •Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that the current policy stance appears sufficiently restrictive and that inflation could fall further with the policy rate held steady for some time, though the upside inflation risks remain. •This raises uncertainty over the possibility of early interest rate cuts by the Fed, which assist the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold steady above the 4.0% threshold and might cap the non-yielding yellow metal. •The market focus, meanwhile, remains glued to the US consumer inflation figures on Thursday, which should help determine the next leg of a directional move for the XAU/USD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by sniper_2022
USDJPY| Breakout of a bullish channel with a target at 141.80Analyzing the USD/JPY pair, I observe that it is consolidating losses below the 144.00 level. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained traction following softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data, strengthening expectations of a more hawkish approach by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and widening the monetary policy divergence between the BoJ and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). U.S. economic data indicates a still-resilient economy, dampening hopes for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed. This supports high U.S. Treasury bond yields, benefiting the dollar. However, USD bulls seem hesitant to place aggressive bets, preferring to wait for Thursday's consumer inflation data. The Yen continues to attract buying for the second consecutive day after inflation in Tokyo remained above BoJ's 2% target. This could lead the BoJ to scale back its massive stimulus later this year, strengthening the JPY. On the other hand, the USD is weakened by expectations of a Fed rate cut in March, bolstered by a drop in U.S. consumer inflation expectations. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair has dropped below the mid-143.00s during the Asian session. Post-earthquake government stimulus measures in Japan might have delayed BoJ's shift from its ultra-accommodative stance. This, along with a positive tone around Asian equity markets, could limit any significant appreciation of the JPY as a safe haven. Investors have also scaled back expectations for more aggressive Fed policy easing, given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Recent hawkish remarks by Fed officials support high U.S. bond yields, favoring the dollar and limiting the downside for the USD/JPY pair. The upcoming U.S. CPI report might provide clarity on the timing of the Fed's potential policy easing, influencing the dollar's dynamics and determining the short-term trajectory of the USD/JPY pair. I expect a rise in the next few hours, with a rebound at the intersection of a new forming downtrend at H4 and the broken bullish channel during the Asian session, possibly leading to a short entry around 144.50 with a final target at 141.80. Let's see if the market confirms this personal view. Happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
BTC Trend Weekly w/ 9.86PF & 64%WR Backtest and some infoHello everyone, The strategy currently indicates a bullish trend on a 6-hour timeframe. Regarding the Backtest (1/1/2016 - Present, spanning 8 years): Profitability and Drawdown: The strategy exhibits a 64% success rate with a profit factor of 9.86, demonstrating robustness, as the profitable trades are, on average, nearly ten times larger than the losing ones. The maximum drawdown is recorded at 11.88% of the account, which is considered manageable within the realm of trading. *Each bet employs a consistent amount of capital. * Should there be an opportunity to enhance the strategy, I reserve the right to do so and will provide updates on the portfolio accordingly. Liquidation Status: Integrating this backtest data with the recent clearance of bearish positions, alongside significant bullish bets at the levels of 46,470 (150 million), 44,518 (230 million), and 41,865 (810 million), we can deduce a robust bullish sentiment within the market. The liquidation of bearish positions suggests that short-term negative wagers against Bitcoin have been ousted, potentially due to unforeseen bullish momentum or favorable news. The specified levels at which substantial bullish investments have been made are likely to serve as key support zones. The substantial trade volume at these price points is indicative of strong market confidence. Nonetheless, the advisory to "sell the news" implies that the current uptrend may be subject to correction should the recent developments fail to sustain the rally's momentum. As a trader or investor, one should: Monitor the Support Levels: The mentioned price points of 46,470; 44,518; and 41,865 should be closely watched for any signs of price stabilization or reversal patterns. Set Clear Targets and Stops for your big position: To manage risk effectively, set a clear profit target and stop-loss level before entering a trade.
by PresentTrading
USDCAD| Bullish channel with target at 1.3480 USDCAD Analysis Canadian Dollar Weakness: The CAD is facing downward pressure against major currencies, primarily due to the decline in the crude oil market. This is a significant factor, as the Canadian economy is closely linked to oil prices. Impact of Economic Data: Upcoming Canadian data releases, such as the International Merchandise Trade Balance and Building Permits, are expected to show declining figures. A decrease in the Trade Balance and a slight drop in Building Permits are anticipated. These data could further influence the strength of the CAD. Oil Market Dynamics: With Saudi Arabia reducing prices for Asian partners and the continuous production cuts by OPEC being offset by reduced demand, particularly from China, there is a direct impact on the Canadian economy. Additionally, high US Crude Oil production challenges the expected global undersupply. US Economic Indicators: The recent US Nonfarm Payrolls report and the expectations for the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) are also influencing the pair. Strong US employment data and the slightly anticipated increase in CPI could support the USD, suggesting a less likely scenario of immediate Fed rate cuts. USD/CAD Pair Movement: Despite these factors, the USD/CAD pair has shown limited movement, staying within the previous trading range and displaying a slight upward trend in the Asian session. It remains above the mid-1.3300s, indicating a potential continuation of its recent recovery from a low.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy