DOW JONES - Short from bearish OB !! Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on DOW JONES.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. My point of interest is imbalance filled + rejection from OB.
Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Strategy!
Stop Losses: Protecting Your Trades and Building Consistency
Stop losses are a critical tool for any trader aiming to manage risk and protect capital. A stop loss is a preset level at which a trade will automatically close to prevent further losses if the price moves against you. This approach is one of the most effective ways to protect your account, and understanding how to set and use stop losses correctly can help you trade more confidently.
In this article, I will discuss why stop losses are essential, the types of stop losses available, and how they link to other core strategies like position sizing and maintaining consistency.
Why Every Trader Needs a Stop Loss
The primary role of a stop loss is to limit potential losses on a trade. By setting a stop loss level, you define your risk before entering the trade, which helps ensure that no single trade can damage your account significantly. This practice is fundamental to disciplined trading, where managing risk is just as important as aiming for profits. When you use stop losses, you’re able to protect your account without relying on emotions or making quick decisions based on fear or market volatility .
Using stop losses also promotes consistency, as it allows traders to follow their strategy and avoid unexpected, large losses. Knowing your risk upfront means you can execute your trades with a clear plan, focusing on opportunities rather than worrying about sudden market moves. This consistency is key to achieving long-term success in trading 🚀.
The Types of Stop Losses Every Trader Should Know
There are different types of stop losses, each suited to particular trading strategies and market conditions. Here are some of the most common types and how they work:
Fixed Dollar or Percentage Stop Loss
This is the simplest type, where you set a specific dollar amount or percentage of your capital as the maximum loss.
Example: If you’re willing to lose $100 on a trade, you place a stop loss that will close your position if the loss reaches $100.
Technical Stop Loss
A technical stop loss is set using chart levels, like support or resistance, which reflect natural points where prices may bounce or reverse.
Example: If a stock has support at $48 and you buy it at $50, you might set your stop loss just below $48. This way, if the price breaks the support level, the trade closes to prevent further loss.
Trailing Stop Loss
A trailing stop loss adjusts upward as the price moves in your favor, locking in profits if the stock reverses.
Example: If you buy a stock at $50 with a $1 trailing stop, and the price rises to $55, your stop automatically moves to $54. If the price then drops to $54, the trade closes, protecting your $4 profit.
Volatility-Based Stop Loss
This type of stop loss takes into account the stock’s usual price swings, setting the stop far enough away to avoid being triggered by minor fluctuations.
Example: If the ATR (Average True Range) of a stock is $2, you might set your stop $3 below your entry point to account for normal market movements.
Time-Based Stop Loss
A time-based stop loss closes the position after a set period, which is particularly useful for day traders who avoid holding trades overnight.
Example: A day trader might exit all trades by 4 p.m., regardless of the price movement, to avoid the risks of holding overnight positions.
How Stop Loss and Position Sizing Work Together
Stop losses and position sizing are deeply connected. Position sizing is the amount of capital you commit to each trade, and it’s based on your risk tolerance and the distance to your stop loss level. For instance, if you have a $10,000 account and want to risk only 1% per trade (or $100), you’ll need to calculate how many shares you can buy based on the distance to your stop loss.
Let’s say your stop loss is $5 away from your entry price. To stick to your $100 risk limit, you would only buy 20 shares ($100/$5 stop distance). By setting your position size relative to your stop loss, you control how much of your capital is at risk. This approach keeps your losses small enough that no single trade can impact your overall capital significantly, allowing you to trade consistently and confidently.
How Stop Losses Contribute to Consistent Trading
Stop losses are essential for maintaining consistency in trading. They allow you to avoid big losses that can drain your capital and help keep emotions in check, allowing you to trade with a clear mind. Using stop losses also helps you keep your risk-to-reward ratio in balance, so even if some trades go against you, the overall profits from successful trades will outweigh these losses.
This discipline keeps you aligned with your strategy and limits impulsive actions, which are often harmful to trading success. In this way, stop losses help establish a consistent, repeatable process that strengthens your trading foundation and increases your chances of long-term success.
I know very well the frustration of seeing my stop losses being hit, but believe me, the worst feeling is getting stuck with a large loss for weeks, months, or even years. Sometimes, stocks never recover.
Project Monday Strategy: Long Signal on BitcoinThis trading idea crated with Project Monday Strategy v2.0 (coming soon).
Entry Price: 67735.97 USDT
Preliminary Stop-Loss: 65282.32 USDT
Preliminary Take-Profit: 72553.24 USDT
This strategy preset generates orders with following results during 6 years:
Net Profit in %: 1954,32%;
Percent Profitable: 47%;
Profit Factor: 2,16;
Max Drawdown: 26,31%.
XRP Price Analysis: Potential 20% Drop Amid Key Support LevelsXRP is currently trading within a box pattern, with a lower high suggesting a higher probability of a downside breakout. If the crucial support level of $0.5213 is lost, there is a 20% potential drop in price, targeting $0.4164. If you are holding XRP, you might consider selling, or alternatively, you could take a short position upon a clear break of the $0.5213 level. Given the importance of this support, a sharp decline is expected if it breaks. Keep an eye on this critical zone for any significant moves.
USD/JPY: US Elections and Middle East War!USD/JPY fell towards 152.00 after reaching a 12-week high near 153.20, due to a temporary correction in the US Dollar (USD), which saw the Dollar Index (DXY) dip to 104.20. Despite this, the Dollar's outlook remains bullish, supported by positive economic data such as the October US services PMI, which exceeded expectations with an expansion to 55.3. Political uncertainty and the upcoming US presidential elections further enhance the Dollar's appeal as a safe-haven currency. In Japan, the cautious statements from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who indicated a gradual approach to assessing inflation, suggest that further rate hikes are unlikely in the near term. This divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan continues to support a bullish trend for USD/JPY, with the current correction seen as temporary.
USOIL Ready for $75!WTI oil prices have climbed back to $71.60 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly due to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The possibility of disruptions in oil supplies from the region fuels market uncertainty. However, the significant increase in US crude oil inventories, far exceeding expectations, is putting downward pressure on prices, indicating a potential oversupply. Additionally, the strengthening US dollar, which has reached its highest level since July, is reducing oil demand by making it more expensive for foreign buyers. These factors limit the potential for price increases, despite geopolitical concerns.
AT&T - Long active !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on AT&T.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a long. I expect bullish price action after price took liquidity below equal lows and then broke LZ.
Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
XAU/USD: Ready for a Pullback!The price of gold (XAU/USD) has recently retreated from an all-time high of around $2,560 and is currently trading slightly below $2,720, complicated by the strength of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Technically, the $2,750 level has shown signs of rejection, making it a key resistance, while immediate support is located at $2,725, near the lower boundary of a two-week ascending channel. A convincing break below this support could trigger technical selling, pushing the price down toward $2,700 and subsequently to $2,680-2,675, where the 100-period simple moving average resides. Despite overbought conditions and pressure from the dollar, political uncertainty and the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for gold as a safe haven. That said, gold seems poised for a correction toward $2,675, and we will see in the coming days if it gives us a signal for a short entry. Good evening and happy trading to everyone.
GBP/USD: Is the Dollar Weakness Back?After a brief two-day recovery, GBP/USD reversed course on Monday, losing 0.5% and continuing to show signs of weakness on Tuesday morning, trading slightly below the 1.3000 level. Market sentiment was cautious at the beginning of the week due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which bolstered demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven. The US economic calendar features the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October, though it is not expected to significantly impact the market. Additionally, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York, but without expected comments on monetary policy, the event could have a minimal effect on the pound.
The next important data releases for GBP/USD will be on Thursday, with the preliminary PMI Manufacturing and Services Index data for the UK and the US, which could provide further direction for the pair. It is also worth noting that on Tuesday, the market closed the day with a doji candle, opening up a potential bullish opportunity. We will see if today, during the London session, the market provides a clear confirmation to go long.
Happy trading, and have a great day!
DAL Delta Air Lines Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on DAL:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DAL Delta Air Lines prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-15,
for a premium of approximately $3.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MIDCPNIFTY Hits 3 Targets in Short Trade – TP4 Awaiting!In this short trade on the MIDCPNIFTY, three targets have already been met, reaching up to TP3 at 12605.25. We are currently watching for TP4 at 12499.35 to be achieved.
Key Levels
Entry: 13053.70 – A strong bearish signal triggered this short entry.
Stop-Loss (SL): 13139.35 – Positioned above the entry to protect from upward movements.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 12947.85 – Achieved as part of the initial downward momentum.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 12776.55 – Hit following sustained selling pressure.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 12605.25 – Reached as bearish momentum continues.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 12499.35 – The final target, currently awaited.
Trend Analysis
The price remains comfortably below the Risological Dotted Trendline, confirming a strong downward trend. Three targets have already been hit, and further downward momentum could see TP4 being reached.
EUR/USD: Watch for the Rebound!EUR/USD began the week on a bearish note, hitting 12-week lows near 1.0800 as the US dollar remains strong, supported by solid economic fundamentals and rising US yields. Key support levels are at 1.0811 and 1.0775, while major resistance is seen at 1.0930 and 1.1040. The macroeconomic backdrop favors the dollar, with the Fed remaining cautious on rate cuts, and the ECB, despite a recent rate cut, facing weak growth and declining inflation. A drop below 1.0800 could accelerate losses, while a recovery above 1.0875 would be the first positive signal.
IBM International Business Machines Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought IBM before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of IBM International Business Machines prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 250usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-3-21,
for a premium of approximately $8.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
USD/JPY Towards 160 if the Fed doesn’t cut!USD/JPY is currently trading near the 150.00 level, under pressure due to verbal intervention from Japanese authorities and a pullback in the US Dollar. The pair is navigating a cautious environment, as mild risk aversion strengthens the safe-haven Japanese Yen. However, despite this pressure, the pair maintains its broader upward trend after breaking a key resistance level. Fundamentally, USD/JPY continues to find support from strong US retail sales data and a resilient labor market, along with rising US Treasury yields. This has led investors to reduce the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the November meeting, keeping the dollar supported and the pair on a bullish trajectory.
Gold Nears $2,700 on Election UncertaintyThe price of gold continues its bullish run, nearing $2,700 per ounce due to uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, despite the strength of the dollar and rising Treasury yields. Political uncertainty is increasing demand for the precious metal, considered a safe haven, as polls show a tight race. Additionally, the recent decision by the ECB to cut interest rates temporarily strengthened the dollar, but this has not prevented gold from maintaining its positive momentum. Better-than-expected economic data in the U.S., such as increased retail sales and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, also supported the dollar, but these factors were not enough to reverse gold’s trend. From a technical standpoint, moving averages, particularly the 20-day SMA around $2,649.50, continue to provide support to the bullish trend, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain far below, confirming persistent buyer interest. Technical indicators suggest further upside, though minor short-term corrections may occur, potentially offering new buying opportunities.
Kava Heavy Bearmarket- This analysis is presented as a tutorial. Some of you may already be familiar with MACD, but for those who aren’t, I’m happy to guide you through it.
- Today, I’d like to share some insights on how to determine whether a token is still in a bear market or if it's on the verge of changing direction.
- As always everything is noted in the graphic, so lets go :
1 . First, focus on the orange line, which is the most crucial one, sitting around $1.20. Did you notice that in 2020, Kava bounced off this line? Back then, it served as strong support. Now, take note that Kava was rejected twice in 2023 and 2024 at this exact same price level, this support just turned as a strong resistance.
2. Take a look at the MACD indicator Lines. During Kava's bull market in 2020, the MACD was consistently moving in the positive zone (bullmarket green area). After Kava's crash, observe how Kava have been repeatedly rejected at this exact middle line and continued to evolve in a negative zone (bearmarket red area).
3. Finally, take a closer look at the "hammer Emoji" and the bearish trendline. You will observe that everything is interconnected. At times, Kava gets "hammered" at the $1.20 level along the middle line, while at other times, it encounters resistance on its bearish trendline. None of this is coincidental.
Conclusion :
- Kava remains is still in a heavy bear market. As a relatively young token, it's difficult to analyze long-term historical data. However, with time, extending the timeframe to 1 or 3 months can help reduce noise and potentially detect a bullish reversal.
- Kava's key level is $1.20. When it stays below this, it's better to step back, touch some grass, and wait for a breakout before considering any long positions.
- If you’re looking to trade profitably, always go with the flow. Don’t try to long something that’s trending downward or short something that's rising. It’s simply a matter of logic.
Happy Tr4Ding !
EURUSD Daily Analysis - Consolidation day ahead of key data fromEURUSD Daily Analysis - Consolidation day ahead of key data from both sides of the Atlantic.
Since the beginning of October, the dollar has strengthened steadily and smoothly against the Euro. For half of the month, EURUSD movement is only in a downward direction with a gain of 300 pips for the dollar.
The dollar is currently in its strongest position since August 2024. Technical analysis shows that the dollar will continue to accumulate new pips against the Euro.
Among the fundamental analysis for today Wednesday, the most important is the ECB's President Lagarde speech very late in the evening, in general the focus will be on the decision on Thursday, where the ECB is expected to cut the main interest rate by 25 basis points.
In general, very important data are expected on Thursday, both for the Eurozone and for the United States. This would mean that currency trading will consolidate in anticipation of the next day's data.
We at World-Signals expect the trend to remain today with a slight consolidation at the levels around 1.0865 - 1.0910.
ALLY Ally Financial Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ALLY Ally Financial prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 36usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-25,
for a premium of approximately $1.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
EUR/USD: Bearish Trend Driven by Diverging Monetary Policies!The EUR/USD continues to face bearish pressure, nearing two-month lows around 1.0890, driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar supported by increased risk aversion and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The dollar also benefited from the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which revealed that a majority of members supported a monetary easing policy, though without a clear timeline for future rate cuts. The diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are strongly influencing the exchange rate. While the Fed is leaning towards further rate cuts, with an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction next month, the ECB is more cautious. Despite inflation in the Eurozone falling below the 2% target, the ECB is closely monitoring economic data before taking new measures, leaving the euro vulnerable. The economic weakness in the Eurozone, with stagnant GDP growth, could continue to weigh on the euro, further favoring the dollar, which is in a position of strength thanks to the resilience of the U.S. economy. In conclusion, the EUR/USD is in a bearish context, with a possible break of key support levels that could lead to further declines. Only a recovery above the 1.0996 resistance could reverse the negative trend, but current economic and monetary conditions suggest the dollar will continue to dominate in the short term.
Potential Bullish Breakout for SAGA/USDT: Cup and Handle PatternCup and Handle Pattern:
The pink curve outlines a "Cup" formation, which is a bullish reversal pattern. This is typically formed when there is a gradual rounded bottom, followed by a breakout to the upside.
The cup's depth is marked by a large percentage gain (272.58%), reflecting the potential move from the bottom of the cup to the breakout point (the green line at approximately $3.30).
Price Levels:
Current Price: Around $3.30.
Resistance Levels:
There’s a projected upward target of $6.5010, which aligns with the height of the cup pattern and indicates where the price might go following a successful breakout.
Support Level: The lower green line at $1.7944 shows a significant support area in case the price reverses downward.
Measured Moves:
The text "2.3628 (272.58%)" and "4.7561 (272.57%)" indicates that this chart predicts a possible price movement of around 272% from the breakout point if the cup-and-handle pattern plays out correctly. These values reflect the price movements from the bottom of the pattern to the top.
Blue Area:
The blue dashed line and area likely represent a possible consolidation zone or retracement (the "Handle" of the Cup and Handle pattern) before the price potentially continues upwards.
In summary, this chart suggests a bullish outlook for the SAGA/USDT pair, with a potential breakout from the cup-and-handle pattern leading to a significant price increase. However, the handle could form before the price reaches the predicted target of $6.50. Keep in mind that while this is a bullish technical setup, it’s important to manage risks and consider market conditions.
Weekly GEX of QQQ | Option Chain AnalysisI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the QQQ option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the QQQ option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics.
🟨 Decline in Put Pricing Skew and Increase in IVx
The decline in put pricing skew on Options Oscillator suggests that put options are becoming relatively cheaper , signaling a shift in market participants' expectations. This indicates increased call buying and put writing activity in the options chain . Along with the decrease in implied volatility (IV), this often points to a lower demand for downside protection strategies, which could be interpreted as a bullish sentiment.
Currently, the QQQ’s IVRank stands at 31.5, reflecting a moderate volatility environment. However, with an average IVx of 19.2, trading volumes could increase, and interest in volatility-based strategies may rise further.
🔶 Backwardation in 4-7 DTE and Time Spreads
Backwardation in the 4-7 DTE (days to expiration) period can be ideal for time spread (calendar, diagonal) option traders , as near-term options show higher volatility than longer-term ones. This creates a favorable environment for time spread strategies, especially if this backwardation persists.
🟨 Gamma Levels and Open Interest-Based Levels
Call high OI gamma walls (or call resistance levels) typically act as resistance points. However, once these levels are broken, the bullish movement can accelerate due to positive gamma exposure. Put gamma walls (or put support levels), on the other hand, act as support. If broken, downward moves can intensify due to the high negative gamma exposure.
While the current largest gamma wall was for today at 495, the upcoming expiration on 10/14 could shift this level to 500, where the greatest gamma exposure will likely be after the Monday expiration (due to the large amount of open interest expiring at 495). If the price breaks above this level, it could further bolster bullish prospects to 505 (last ATH). Additionally, the 500 strike plays a critical role as a major level in the Options Grid System, representing the 8/8 level.
🟨 OTM 16 delta probability cloud in Options Overlay
The blue Delta Curves on the Options Overlay show the 16-delta levels, helping traders identify potential price ranges. According to current data, on the call side, the 505 strike is still within the 16-delta range, reinforcing its bullish potential.
This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade.
🟨 Time Spread Strategies
The aforementioned backwardation and gamma wall situation may present an advantage for time spread traders. Backwardation between 4-7 DTE provides an optimal window for those favoring time spreads, as the higher short-term volatility offers better premiums.
🟨 TanukiTrade Options Oscillator values
The TanukiTrade Options Oscillator indicates that the combination of declining put skew and decreasing IV suggests potential volatility growth on the bullish side of the market. This could be a valuable signal for both long and time spread strategies.
⅀ QQQ Summary
The decline in put skew and increase in IVx imply that market participants are anticipating an increase in bullish volatility. Backwardation between 4-7DTE supports time spread strategies, while the call gamma wall at 500—and soon 505—is likely to serve as significant resistance/target.
(NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
Weekly GEX of SPX | Option Chain Analysis for Option TradersI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the SPX option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the SPX option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics.
🔶 Breakout and Bullish Outlook
Last Friday's price action saw the SPX break through the 5800 call gamma wall, generating strong bullish momentum . This breakout opens the door for further upward movement throughout the week, especially if buying pressure persists. Breaking through a call gamma wall often leads to a rapid price increase, as these levels act as resistance, but once broken, they support further upward moves.
However, caution is advised, as additional call gamma levels (around 5850 and 5875) could act as resistance, where the price may stall. These levels can reverse roles and, if the price falters, could act as significant resistance, potentially leading to a pullback toward the 5800 level.
🔴 Put Skew and IVx Changes
The put pricing skew on the Options Oscillator shows a declining trend, meaning that while put options are still more expensive than calls at equivalent strikes, this trend is softening when looking at the November expiration. This indicates a weakening of put options relative to calls, which could be another bullish signal as demand for puts may be declining.
The five-day IVx average declining , indicating a decrease in market volatility = VIX is melting down.
🟨 Backwardation and Diagonal/Calendar Strategy Opportunities
It's also worth noting the 10.5% backwardation based on the IV skew for the expirations between 10/18 and 10/21 (4/7DTE). This backwardation (downward sloping volatility curve) could benefit calendar and diagonal spread strategies, as options with different expirations have varying volatility conditions.
🔶 GEX Wall Levels: Where Is Support and Resistance?
🔹Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels continue to play a crucial role in the market’s movements:
🔹On the upside, the largest call gamma wall for the next 7 days is at 5850, while the 5875 level may also act as significant resistance. The 5875 is a more likely a realistic bullish target, supported by the Options Overlay’s blue OTM delta 16 probability curve.
🔹On the downside, the 5750 put support level currently offers strong support, with sellers forming a barrier here. The 5800 level is also interesting because it was the largest call gamma level last week, meaning there could be significant volatility as bulls and bears battle around this point.
(NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available by the end of October.)
🟨 How Delta 16 Curves Define My Rational Price Range in Options Trading
The blue OTM Delta 16 curves from the Options Overlay define the rational probability range for me based on a lognormal distribution. This is important because there’s a 68% chance the price will stay within this range by expiration. These values are also visible in the Overlay Expiry table.
This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade.
⅀ SPX Summary
The SPX options chain is showing a bullish direction with the breakout above 5800, but it will be key to watch the gamma levels where the market might stall this week. The rising IV and declining put skew trend could provide further signals that the bull market might continue, but the possibility of resistance or a pullback remains. For those considering diagonal strategies, the backwardation may offer interesting opportunities to capitalize on.
(NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
SILVER - Idea for a long !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on SILVER.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a long. Point of interest for a long is a rejection from trendline + LZ + FIBO 0.618 level.
Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!