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GBP/USD Will the American GDP surprise everyone?The British Pound (GBP) is experiencing a decline following the escalation of expectations for a mild recession in the UK economy amid growing geopolitical tensions. The UK labor market appears to be feeling the consequences of the economic slowdown, and it is expected that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the second consecutive time. The Pound is pushing lower towards the 1.211 level as the UK economy is anticipated to enter a mild recession. Last Tuesday, S&P Global reported that the manufacturing PMI was at 45.2, slightly above expectations of 45.0 and the previous reading of 44.3. However, a value below 50.0 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity. According to PMI data, manufacturing activity in the UK has been contracting for over a year. This is the longest period of manufacturing decline in the country since 2008-2009, as businesses are reducing their inventories due to a slowdown in new orders. The services PMI dropped to 49.2 in October, below expectations of 49.5 and the September reading of 49.3. The services PMI, which measures activity among service providers, has been contracting for the third consecutive month. The UK unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% in the quarter ending in August, contrary to forecasts and the previous figure of 4.3%. Meanwhile, the US dollar rebounded on Tuesday after finding support near 105.40. Investors rushed towards the US dollar after a positive PMI reading for October. This week, investors will be paying close attention to the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data set to be released on Thursday. Economists expect a growth rate doubling to 4.2% compared to the previous 2.1% on an annual basis. A high growth rate in the July-September period could increase the likelihood of further restrictive measures by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for November 1st. The British Pound faced strong selling pressure after a brief retracement towards the psychological resistance level of 1.2290. However, the price seems to be giving an initial bullish signal after breaking the swing low at the 1.2142 level. From this point, I expect either a bullish momentum in the Asian session and then look for an entry during the London session to ride this uptrend, or a further decline towards the 1.2088 zone where we have an H4 demand zone before the resumption. Let me know what you think. Leave a like and comment, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
XAUUSD: The Fed is getting ready!The recent price trend of gold has seen significant volatility. After an initial drop below $1,961 during the American session, gold managed to climb back to around $1,972 per troy ounce, thanks to the retracement of the yield of the ten-year US government bond, previously pushed higher by positive economic data. From a technical perspective, the daily chart suggests a possible exhaustion of the uptrend, with lower lows and highs, but with technical indicators remaining in overbought territory, indicating a potential short-term rally. This picture is confirmed by the 4-hour chart, where technical indicators are showing a positive trend, despite the Momentum being just below the 100 reference point. Key levels to watch are $1,965 and $1,954 as support, and $1,983 and $1,995 as resistance. Renewed demand for the US dollar has influenced the price of gold, bringing it to an intraday low of $1,953.53 during London trading. Geopolitical context, such as the delay of the Israeli incursion into Gaza, has created an optimistic atmosphere in the financial markets, although the prospects for a diplomatic solution remain uncertain. From a broader perspective, the US dollar has gained strength due to positive economic data, with economic activity expanding in October exceeding expectations, including a manufacturing PMI at 50 and a services index at 50.9. During the American session, government bond yields remained stable, allowing XAU/USD to mitigate intraday losses. The price is currently at the 1972 level, and I expect an upward movement followed by a descent and then another rise. This is because I see market conditions of uncertainty, with particularly tricky geopolitical factors, so I prefer to be cautious and will enter the market if it follows my prediction, at which point, I will consider a position at the M15 level. Until then, I will simply observe. Please leave a like and a comment. Have a great day from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY Bearish Expectation with BOJ in Action!The USD/JPY exchange rate reached a temporary support level at 149.50 after the strengthening of the US dollar. Economists predict a 4.2% growth in the US economy in the third quarter of 2023. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced an unplanned bond-buying operation. The USD/JPY rate found support after a correction from the key resistance level of 150.00. S&P500 futures recorded gains, and the delay in Israel's assault on Gaza improved market sentiment. The dollar rebounded in anticipation of positive GDP data scheduled for Thursday, with expectations of further restrictive measures by the Federal Reserve. The yield on US ten-year bonds decreased to 4.83%, and Fed members maintain a neutral stance on interest rate decisions. Jerome Powell of the Fed is expected to emphasize the need to keep rates steady but with the possibility of future restrictions. The Bank of Japan will conduct an unplanned bond purchase with specific amounts. Additionally, the price spiked at the swing low of 149.40, followed by a manual rise. At the 150 level, I expect a price correction downward with subsequent liquidity withdrawal at 148.80, followed by an upward move. It will be interesting to consider entries on M15 or M5 confirmation. Let me know what you think, and happy trading to all. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy. BOJ in azione!
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Why INJBTC Is a Top Buy Option Right NowINJBTC is currently one of the most robust BTC pairs, making it a prime candidate for a "buy option." Our analysis strongly supports a long position, with compelling reasons for expecting an ongoing uptrend. This optimism stems from INJ's consistent adherence to the uptrend trendline, complemented by a clearly discernible pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe. These factors affirm the validity of the uptrend. The recent rebound from the uptrend trendline is precisely the kind of price action we've been eagerly awaiting. We even offer instruction on this strategy for those interested.
Long
by CryptoPAMM
ABBV AbbVie Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ABBV here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ABBV AbbVie prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 147usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-11-17, for a premium of approximately $3.30. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:ABBVLong
by TopgOptions
1
USD/CAD's Last Surge Before the Fall?The USD/CAD exchange rate has reversed, reaching the resistance at 1.3750. The Canadian dollar has gained momentum due to support from the U.S. dollar (DXY) at 106.00. The S&P500 has started declining due to market uncertainty linked to tensions in the Middle East and quarterly results. The Israeli leader has ordered an operation in Gaza, raising concerns about conflicts. The U.S. dollar is supported by long-term bond yields, which are at multi-year highs. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is at 5%. The Fed has long-term plans to increase interest rates. The Canadian dollar awaits the Bank of Canada's (BoC) interest rate decision on Wednesday. BoC may keep rates at 5% due to declining labor demand and inflationary pressures. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem forecasts inflation stability at 2%. At the 1.3680 level, I will look for a long entry on M15/M5 in search of MSS and liquidity. Happy trading to all from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD is ready for a restart!In the Asian session on Monday, the EUR/USD exchange rate dropped below 1.0600 due to developments in the Middle East, weakening the bullish prospects of the pair. The US dollar gained strength due to higher yields and a decline in stocks. However, there are some positive signals for EUR/USD, with technical indicators showing the potential for further gains if it closes above 1.0640 and possible weakness if it falls below 1.0500. On the 4-hour chart, the pair appears to have an upward trend, and gains may continue if it remains above 1.0555, with possible support at 1.0530. The main resistance is at 1.0630, and a breakout of this level could lead to further upward movement. Looking ahead, Germany will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is expected. In the United States, economic data has shown mixed results, with a decrease in initial unemployment claims but an increase in continuing claims. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested keeping interest rates stable in the short term. The expectation is for a rebound to the trendline at the 1.0551 level with subsequent upside towards 1.0622. Of course, I will be looking for an entry on M15/M5 on some liquidity grab, during the Asian session or on a swing low. Let me know what you think, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GOLD 4H CHART UPDATED LEVELS & TARGETSHey Everyone, Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We had a continuation of the strong move up last week with price finishing off with testing weighted resistance at 1955 on the 4H chart and then support at 1980. EMA5 cross above 1995 will open the levels and range above to track and trade or a cross and lock below 1980 will open the retracement range at 1960 - 1944 correctional retest zone. A break below the retracement range will see a test to the swing range for a bounce and a failure to lock below the retracement range will see a bounce up from this level. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and the catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week last 18 months, you can see how effectively they can be used to trade with or against short terms swings and trends. EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 1980 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 1995 2017 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2017 WILL OPEN 2032 AND 2047 BEARISH TARGETS 1980 EMA5 CROSS BELOW 1980 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 1960 1944 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1944 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE RANGE SWING RANGE 1906 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it! GoldViewFX XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
1
HOW-TO: Minervini Pullback StrategyGeneral Description and Unique Features of this Script 1. Our script/strategy utilizes Mark Minervini's Trend-Template as a qualifier for identifying stocks and other financial securities in confirmed uptrends. Mark Minervini, a 3x US Investment Champion, developed the Trend-Template, which covers eight different and independent characteristics that can be adjusted and optimized in this trend-following strategy to ensure the best results. The strategy will only trigger buy-signals in case the optimized qualifiers are being met. 2. Our strategy is based on supply/demand balance in the market, making it timeless and effective across all timeframes. Whether you're day trading using 1- or 5-min charts or swing-trading using daily charts, this strategy can be applied and works very well. 3. We also incorporate technical indicators such as RSI and MACD to identify low-risk pullback entries in the context of confirmed uptrends. By doing so, the risk profile of this strategy and drawdowns are being reduced to an absolute minimum, giving you peace of mind while trading. Minervini’s Trend-Template and the ‘Stage-Analysis’ of the Markets This strategy is a so-called 'long-only' strategy. This means that we only take long positions, short positions are not considered. The best market environment for such strategies are periods of stable upward trends in the so-called stage 2 - uptrend. In stable upward trends, we increase our market exposure and risk. In sideways markets and downward trends or bear markets, we reduce our exposure very quickly or go 100% to cash and wait for the markets to recover and improve. This allows us to avoid major losses and drawdowns. This simple rule gives us a significant advantage over most undisciplined traders and amateurs!   'The Trend is your Friend'. This is a very old but true quote. What's behind it??? • 98% of stocks made their biggest gains in a Phase 2 upward trend. • If a stock is in a stable uptrend, this is evidence that larger institutions are buying the stock sustainably. • By focusing on stocks that are in a stable uptrend, the chances of profit are significantly increased. • In a stable uptrend, investors know exactly what to expect from further price developments. This makes it possible to locate low-risk entry points. The goal is not to buy at the lowest price – the goal is to buy at the right price! Each stock goes through the same maturity cycle – it starts at stage 1 and ends at stage 4   Stage 1 – Neglect Phase – Consolidation Stage 2 – Progressive Phase – Accumulation Stage 3 – Topping Phase – Distribution Stage 4 – Downtrend – Capitulation This strategy focuses on identifying stocks in confirmed stage 2 uptrends. This in itself gives us an advantage over long-term investors and less professional traders. By focusing on stocks in a stage 2 uptrend, we avoid losses in downtrends (stage 4) or less profitable consolidation phases (stages 1 and 3). We are fully invested and put our money to work for us, and we are fully invested when stocks are in their stage 2 uptrends. But how can we use technical chart analysis to find stocks that are in a stable stage 2 uptrend? Mark Minervini has developed the so-called 'trend template' for this purpose. This is an essential part of our JS-TechTrading pullback strategy. For our watchlists, only those individual values that meet the tough requirements of Minervini's trend template are eligible. The Trend Template • 200d MA increasing over a period of at least 1 month, better 4-5 months or longer • 150d MA above 200d MA • 50d MA above 150d MA and 200d MA • Course above 50d MA, 150d MA and 200d MA • Ideally, the 50d MA is increasing over at least 1 month • Price at least 25% above the 52w low • Price within 25% of 52w high • High relative strength according to IBD. We have developed an algorythm (for TradingView) that uses Minervini’s trend template as a qualifier. This means that the strategy only generates trading signals in case the selected elements of the trend template are being met. The user is fully flexible to adjust the requirements of this Trend-Template qualifier: This strategy is normally applied to the daily chart ideal for selecting individual stocks for trend-following strategies. Nevertheless, Minervini’s principles are timeless and this alogrithmic strategy with the Trend-Template qualifier can also be applied to any other timframe. The qualifier #9 (RS-Ratings) can be modified and optimized in the strategy’s settings to fit your individual needs. In general, it should be noted that ideally all 8/8 trend template criteria are met. Stocks or other securities that meet only some of these 8 criteria can also be very promising candidates for this strategy, provided that backtesting yields good results. The Pullback Strategy For the Minervini pullback strategy, only stocks and other financial instruments that meet the selected criteria of Mark Minervini's trend template are considered. If not, the strategy will not generate any signals. Further prerequisites for generating a buy signal is that the individual value is in a short-term oversold state (RSI). When the selling pressure is over and the continuation of the uptrend can be confirmed by the MACD after reaching a price low, a buy signal is issued by the pullback strategy. Stop-loss limits and profit targets can be set variably. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator developed by Welles Wilder in 1978. The RSI is used to perform a market value analysis and identify the strength of a trend as well as overbought and oversold conditions. The indicator is calculated on a scale from 0 to 100 and shows how much an asset has risen or fallen relative to its own price in recent periods. The RSI is calculated as the ratio of average profits to average losses over a certain period of time. A high value of the RSI indicates an overbought situation, while a low value indicates an oversold situation. Typically, a value > 70 is considered an overbought threshold and a value < 30 is considered an oversold threshold. A value above 70 signals that a single value may be overvalued and a decrease in price is likely , while a value below 30 signals that a single value may be undervalued and an increase in price is likely. For example, let's say you're watching a stock XYZ. After a prolonged falling movement, the RSI value of this stock has fallen to 26. This means that the stock is oversold and that it is time for a potential recovery. Therefore, a trader might decide to buy this stock in the hope that it will rise again soon. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a technical indicator used in both short-term and long-term trading strategies. The indicator was developed by Gerald Appel and is one of the most well-known indicators for the stock market. The MACD consists of two lines calculated by the difference between two moving averages. The first line is a fast moving average that targets a short period of time. The second line is a slow moving average that targets a longer period of time. In addition, a trigger line is calculated, which consists of another moving average of the MACD line. The MACD line is the difference between the fast and slow moving average. The greater the difference between the two lines, the more likely a subsequent price increase. The lower the difference, the more likely a subsequent price drop is. If the MACD line crosses upwards over the trigger line, this is a buy signal that signals a potential price increase. If the MACD line crosses down below the trigger line, this is a sell signal that signals a potential price weakening. This strategy is applicable to all timeframes and the relevant parameters for the underlying indicators (RSI and MACD) can be adjusted and optimized as needed.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JS_TechTrading
Is GBP/USD poised for a rebound?In this update on GBP/USD, the currency pair initially dropped to the 1.2100 level due to disappointing economic data from the UK. However, it managed to recover to around 1.2150. Market sentiment remains negative, with investors focused on news related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart has stayed below 50, indicating a bearish outlook. If GBP/USD closes below 1.2100 on the 4-hour chart, sellers might become more active. In that case, the next downside targets could be 1.2050 and 1.2000. On the upside, key resistance levels include the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2150, followed by 1.2180 and 1.2200. The short-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains in place. Furthermore, disappointing retail sales data in the UK and comments from the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, have contributed to the weakness of the pound. Meanwhile, the US dollar has experienced some initial weakness but could receive support due to concerns related to the Israel-Hamas conflict affecting market sentiment. I also want to highlight a crucial point where the price is, precisely at the intersection of two trendlines at the 1.2161 level, and from here, I expect an uptrend with a target of 1.23. Personally, I will look for a long entry if I find a good setup on the 15-minute chart with some Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
10
WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought WAL here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 48usd strike price in the money Puts with an expiration date of 2023-10-20, for a premium of approximately $2.12. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:WALShort
by TopgOptions
Is EUR/USD ready to touch 1.07?The relationship between the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD) is maintaining a tight range below 1.0600 towards the end of the week. The lack of significant data releases is contributing to the cautious market attitude, which is supporting the strength of the US Dollar. This situation makes it challenging for the EUR/USD relationship to gain momentum. Over the last four days, EUR/USD has recorded its third increase and is currently trading above the 20-day simple moving average. On the daily chart, technical indicators suggest a bullish sentiment, with the RSI rising and Momentum exceeding the 100 level. If the relationship manages to close above 1.0640 in a day, it could set the stage for further gains. Conversely, a drop below 1.0500 could suggest more weakness ahead. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the relationship shows a bullish trend, with technical indicators confirming this perspective. As long as the relationship remains above 1.0555, we can anticipate further gains. However, a decline below this level could indicate support at 1.0530, suggesting the end of the current bullish movement. The main resistance level is at 1.0630, serving as a horizontal barrier and a descending trendline. Currently, this area is limiting the extent of gains. If the relationship manages to consolidate above this level, it could pave the way for further increases, with an initial target at 1.0675. On Thursday, despite risk aversion in the markets fueled by a drop in the US Dollar, EUR/USD recorded an increase and was on the verge of closing at daily highs not seen in over a week. However, it struggled to stay above 1.0600, suggesting obstacles in the path to further gains. On Friday, Germany will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, with expectations of an annual rate decline from -12.6% to -14.2%. The next significant event will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting in the following week, with expectations of key rates remaining unchanged for the first time since June of the previous year. US economic data released on Thursday were mixed, with initial jobless claims declining but continuing claims increasing. Existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in 13 years, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index recorded a negative value in October. These data did not favor the US Dollar. No major reports are expected for Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed a preference for keeping rates unchanged in the short term and emphasized the persistent inflation risk. This message aligns with recent Fed statements indicating the intention to keep rates stable as long as inflation slows and the economy does not show signs of further strengthening. The price is in a consolidation within a support and resistance zone. From this point, the price could either move upwards towards the supply zone at the level of 1.0630 or drop and bounce within the significant demand zone at the level of 1.0540 before continuing towards 1.07. Let me know what you think, regards from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Eur/Usd Hello traders! My opinion is that the pair is in the channel scheme. The price has reached the zone of consolidation, which means it has brought a confirmation for sell at the level (1.0440). Key level (1.0440)! If the bears keep the move, we have a possible scenario and a test of the level (1.02870), but if the bulls reverse the move, we can have a retest of the level (1.05555). Be careful with the positions! War is unpredictable! Wait to enter the trade! Be careful! Don`t forget to look at the economic calendar! MAKE MONEY AND ENJOY LIFE 💰 THANK YOU! GOOD LUCK! 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
by THP-Forex-Academy
2
XAUUSD up after Powell or due to war?The price of gold has risen to nearly $1,980, reaching its highest level since July. This increase has been driven by escalating tensions between Gaza and Israel, despite the ongoing rise in US Treasury yields. Gold has surpassed significant technical indicators and is now aiming to breach the $1,988 threshold before potentially reaching $2,000. The 14-day RSI indicator suggests further gains before a possible correction. In the event of a price correction, support levels have been identified at $1,972 and $1,963. Additionally, the psychological level of $1,950 could pose a challenge to the bullish trend, with particular attention to the key 200-day DMA support, currently at $1,930. Geopolitical tensions have contributed to the increase in the price of gold, which is considered a safe haven. Furthermore, statements from Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, have emphasized that the rise in US Treasury yields does not necessarily indicate future interest rate hikes or higher inflation. The situation has been influenced by ongoing tensions between Gaza and Israel, with the possibility of a ground invasion into Gaza by the Israeli Defense Forces. Growing concerns regarding geopolitical tensions have pushed the price of gold higher, with an increase of over $30 in a single day. Currently, gold remains strong, with traders closely monitoring developments in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. This situation could further impact gold prices. Currently, my H4 bias is short, but due to geopolitical tensions, I do not rule out the possibility of gold returning to visit highs in the 2020 area, where we have a supply zone. At the moment, it is fluctuating between the 1920-2020 range. Please comment and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EUR/USD at 1.07 with Powell's speech?The EUR/USD is trading below 1.0550 in the early European session on Thursday, primarily due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which are bolstering the safe-haven US Dollar. Investors are cautious ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Powell. The EUR/USD briefly touched 1.0595 but then retreated, forming a short-term double-top pattern. A drop below 1.0560 confirmed this pattern, setting a target of 1.0530 and suggesting the pair may have peaked in the short term. If it falls below 1.0520, the Euro could face further weakness with support at 1.0500. On the positive side, the pair needs to surpass 1.0565 to attempt a breakthrough of the critical resistance at 1.0595, potentially aiming for 1.0630. On Wednesday, the EUR/USD fell below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after encountering resistance at 1.0600, driven by a strengthening US Dollar due to worsening market sentiment and higher Treasury yields. Initially, positive Chinese economic growth data boosted market sentiment, but geopolitical concerns quickly took precedence, impacting risk sentiment and favoring the US Dollar. Simultaneously, rising Treasury yields further supported the Greenback, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2007 at 4.92%. Upcoming data releases include US Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed index, with a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Powell at the Economics Club of New York. The EUR/USD is currently in a consolidation phase within a prevailing bearish trend, as fundamental factors continue to favor the US Dollar, limiting upside potential and maintaining a downside bias for the pair. Additionally, the price is in a significant demand zone, along with an upward trendline that may test at the level of 1.0523 before going long with a target of 1.07. I personally will look for some liquidity spikes during the London session to enter a long position. Let me know your thoughts. Happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
9
Is GBP/USD ready for 1.23?Initially, the exchange rate between the British pound (GBP) and the US dollar (USD) showed an increase, surpassing 1.2130 but encountering resistance at 1.2175. Despite inflation in the UK, the pair consolidated with slight losses due to the strength of the US dollar. Currently, it fluctuates between 1.2190 and 1.2200, in line with Fibonacci retracement levels at 23.6% and simple moving averages at 50 and 100 periods. If the pair manages to stabilize above this range, technical buyers could step in, aiming for 1.2250 and 1.2300. Otherwise, potential sellers could push the pair towards 1.2130 and 1.2100. During a quiet Asian session, I noticed a modest increase in GBP/USD, reaching 1.2200 during the Wednesday morning European session. From a technical perspective, there are no clear signals of upward momentum, but further increases could occur if the pair holds at 1.2200. The inflation index in the UK remained stable at 6.7% on a yearly basis in September, surpassing market expectations. The British Finance Minister anticipates a decrease in inflation. Although recent CPI data may not influence the markets for a rate hike by the Bank of England in the November meeting, investors might reassess whether the BoE has completed its tightening cycle, potentially supporting the British pound in the short term. In the afternoon, Housing Starts and Building Permits data for September will be released in the US, which could impact the US dollar. I will look for a long entry on M15 or M5 with a subsequent target of 1.22. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Bearish Momentum Continues, Watch for Oversold BounceThe British pound fell to a new record low against the US dollar on Wednesday, October 18, 2023, after the Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points, but signaled that it may slow the pace of hikes in the coming months. This suggests that the BoE is more concerned about a recession than about inflation, which could lead to further weakness in the pound. Other factors weighing on the pound include the ongoing political uncertainty in the UK and the prospect of a prolonged economic slowdown. The UK economy is already facing a number of headwinds, including high inflation, rising energy costs, and labor shortages. A recession in the UK would likely lead to a further weakening of the pound. Technical Analysis 30-Minute Chart On the 30-minute chart, GBP/USD is currently trading in a bearish downtrend. The price is below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, and the MACD indicator is below its signal line. This suggests that the bears are in control and that the price is likely to continue to fall in the near term. The next support level is at 1.2100, followed by 1.2050. The next resistance level is at 1.2250, followed by 1.2300. 4-Hour Chart On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD is also trading in a bearish downtrend. The price is below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, and the MACD indicator is below its signal line. This suggests that the bears are in control and that the price is likely to continue to fall in the near term. The next support level is at 1.2100, followed by 1.2050. The next resistance level is at 1.2250, followed by 1.2300. Daily Chart On the daily chart, GBP/USD is also trading in a bearish downtrend. The price is below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, and the MACD indicator is below its signal line. This suggests that the bears are in control and that the price is likely to continue to fall in the near term. The next support level is at 1.2100, followed by 1.2050. The next resistance level is at 1.2250, followed by 1.2300. Elliot Wave Theory Based on Elliot Wave Theory, GBP/USD may be in wave 5 of a bearish 5-wave Elliott wave pattern. This suggests that the price is likely to continue to fall until the wave 5 pattern is complete. I hope this post is helpful. If you agree with the idea, please follow and share this with others too. This analysis is based on the information at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information. Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
Short
by YExplore
USD/JPY Is the Yen back?The USD/JPY exchange rate is holding around 149.75 during the early Asian trading hours, supported by an increase in US Treasury bond yields. Investors are on alert for the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities near the 150.00 level. Despite a brief dip towards 148.80, the pair quickly recovered around 149.50, anticipating the upcoming inflation estimates from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Bloomberg reported a potential increase in inflation forecasts for 2023, indicating BoJ's confidence in wage growth. Hopes of Japanese intervention in the currency market are fading due to concerns of Japanese authorities about further Japanese Yen sales and volatility. Despite historical volatility spikes, interest in the Yen is limited due to BoJ's expansive monetary policy. S&P500 futures have experienced significant losses due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, reflecting a bearish market sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from 106.50 as Federal Reserve (Fed) members support keeping interest rates unchanged in November. Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, likened the increase in yields to a 25 basis point hike but emphasized the risk of further rate hikes that could lead to a recession. Additionally, the market has moved only around 30 pips in the last five sessions. It appears to be forming a bearish trendline, suggesting a potential downward movement with a target around 148.90. Let me know your thoughts. Regards, Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Will the bearish trendline be broken?During the first half of Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate maintained stability around 1.0550, showing a narrow range. Buyers continued to exert upward pressure, capitalizing on the persistent weakness of the US dollar. Additionally, positive data from Germany supported the euro, with the German ZEW Survey for October indicating an improvement in Economic Sentiment beyond forecasts. The index recorded -1.1 for Germany and 2.3 for the Euro Zone. The assessment of the current situation turned out to be -79.9, slightly lower than the previous -79.4 but better than the market's anticipated -80.5. Meanwhile, financial markets remained cautious due to developments in the Middle East. US President Joe Biden planned a visit to Israel to seek a diplomatic solution to the escalating conflict between the country and the Palestinian group Hamas, contributing to an atmosphere of caution. However, tensions escalated, leading to a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the looming threat of an imminent Israeli ground incursion. Ahead of Wall Street's opening, the US released the September Retail Sales report, showing an unexpected 0.7% MoM increase, surpassing the expected 0.3%. Later in the American session, data on September Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and August Business Inventories were released. Statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman were also anticipated, known for her hawkish stance, suggesting the possible need for further interest rate hikes to curb inflation. Additionally, a strong bearish trendline on the H4 chart is noted, which could lead the price to re-enter the demand zone at the 1.056 level before continuing towards 1.0620. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3