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Is USD/JPY Ready for the BOJ Verdict?The USD/JPY pair stands near 149.20, reflecting recent losses and concerns about possible interventions in the market. The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has surged to 0.8%, a level not seen since 2013. In the US, JOLTS Job Openings exceeded expectations, suggesting a positive employment scenario. Key upcoming events include US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, closely monitored by traders. Initially, the pair dropped to 147.33 due to rumors of Japanese FX intervention but regained stability above 149.00. The increase in JGB yield pressures the Bank of Japan to reconsider its yield-curve cap and negative interest rate policy. Simultaneously, the US Treasury yield rises to 4.865%, the highest since 2007, strengthening the US dollar. Japanese officials are cautious about the timing and purpose of intervention, reminding traders of the 150.00 intervention level from the previous year. In particular, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester leans toward a rate hike, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic prefers patience. US job openings for August exceeded expectations, a potential indicator for the Fed's monetary policy. This week's US employment data could influence the Fed's approach. Traders eagerly await the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI and speculate on Japanese FX market intervention. The week concludes with a focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls data, influencing market sentiment. The price may break or even fake an upward breakout on H4 and then come down to the 147 zone to recover all the liquidity left in the market. Let me know what you think. Good evening from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
How will EUR/USD proceed in view of the NFP?The EUR/USD pair hit a new yearly low, nearly reaching 1.0450 on Tuesday before a slight bounce to around 1.0480. This drop was driven by a strong US dollar, supported by positive economic data and higher yields. However, the euro has slightly recovered. The daily chart shows a bearish trend with negative prospects below 1.0640. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is approaching the lower boundary of a descending channel, with 1.0450 as a key level, suggesting potential corrections or consolidations. However, a break below this level could lead to further declines, possibly targeting 1.0400. Resistance is observed around 1.0490 and 1.0520, with a continued downward trajectory below 1.0540. EUR/USD is at multi-month lows due to the strong US dollar and positive US labor market data. The Eurozone is awaiting inflation and retail sales data, while employment reports continue in the USA. Positive US JOLTS Job Opening data on Tuesday pushed the 10-year Treasury bond yield to 4.80%, a sign of a robust economy. More employment data is expected in the coming days, including the ADP employment report, jobless claims, and the official employment report, including Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. Favorable numbers in these reports could further boost the dollar's rally. Ongoing strong US economic data supports the US dollar rally, fueled by market expectations of higher long-term interest rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a decreasing market sentiment. On Wednesday, Eurostat will release the Producer Price Index and Retail Sales for August, along with final HICP PMIs. Market participants are speculating that the European Central Bank has reached its terminal rate. Additionally, the price seems to be bouncing right at a demand zone highlighted in a previous analysis, at the level of 1.0450, and false breaks have been made on the lows, namely on the swing lows present in this zone. In case of a strong bullish push, I would look for a M15 entry to go long with a target of 1.0542. Let me know what you think, greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Will XAU/USD Succeed in Climbing?The price of gold experienced a correction and stabilized above $1,820 after falling to a multi-month low of $1,815 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds above 4.7% ahead of US data, not allowing XAU/USD to extend its rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is signaling extremely oversold conditions and was seen as a key factor that prompted some intraday short-covering around the Gold price. However, the lack of further purchases suggests that the recent downtrend might still be far from being over. Consequently, any subsequent upward movement might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the $1,830-1,832 resistance zone. Sustained strength beyond this level could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the yellow metal to the $1,850 intermediate hurdle en route to the $1,858-1,860 strong barrier. On the flip side, the daily swing low, around the $1,815 level, could protect the immediate downside ahead of the $1,800 round-figure mark. Further selling could expose the next relevant support near the $1,770-1,760 region. The price of gold (XAU/USD) has been trending lower over the past two weeks or so following the Federal Reserve (Fed) signal that sticky inflation was likely to attract at least one more rate hike in 2023. Moreover, several Fed officials backed the case to keep rates restrictive for longer to bring inflation to the 2% target. Adding to this, the incoming resilient macro data from the United States (US) supports prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed. This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which lifts the US Dollar (USD) to its highest level since November 2022 and drives flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. The downward trajectory prolongs for the seventh successive day on Tuesday and drags the Gold price to its lowest level since March 9 during the Asian session. That said, a mildly softer tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields holds back the USD bulls from placing fresh bets and assists the precious metal to find some support near the $1,815 level. XAU/USD manages to recover a major part of its intraday losses, but lacks follow-through in the wake of hawkish Fed expectations and the underlying strong bullish sentiment surrounding the USD. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the downside. Also, as per the previous analysis, we have a price that has bounced off an H4 demand zone at the 1816 level as predicted. Now, we await an upward movement and a significant structural change at M15 to seek a long entry with a target zone of 1875. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Will EUR/USD be able to rise after Powell's words?The EUR/USD faced renewed bearish pressure, sliding towards 1.0500 on Monday, due to positive US Manufacturing PMI data in September. The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair suggests a downward extension, as technical indicators resumed their descent into negative levels after correcting oversold conditions from last week. Meanwhile, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to decline well above the current level and below the longer averages. In the short term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk also leans towards the downside. The pair slipped below its 20 SMA, while the longer averages show sharply downward slopes well above the current level. At the same time, technical indicators are descending almost vertically, with the Momentum indicator above the 100 level, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 38, reflecting persistent selling interest. The country released the official Manufacturing PMI, which rose in August to 50.2 from 49.7 the previous month. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also improved during the same period, rising from 51 to 51.7, beating expectations. Finally, the September Caixin Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.6, while the services index stopped at 50.2, below August's readings but still in expansionary territory. Meanwhile, S&P Global released the final estimates of the Euro Zone's September Manufacturing PMIs. The German index was revised downwards to 39.6, while the EU index was confirmed at 43.4. Later, S&P Global will publish the US Manufacturing PMI, while the country will release the official index expected at 47.7, a slight improvement from the previous 47.6. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a community discussion in York. Finally, the rise in US Treasury yields fueled demand for the US Dollar. The 10-year Treasury note yield reached 4.64%, the highest since 2007, while the 2-year note offers 5.10% before the opening, up 5 basis points (bps). In fact, the price approached the level of 1.0480, where we have a significant swing low, and after the breakout of the previous swing at the level of 1.0560, my view is highly bullish. This is because the price is near a very important H4 demand zone, and in that zone, one could look for some directional change at M15. Let me know what you think. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
8
XAUUSD H4 Outlook after USA News!The price of gold experienced a significant oscillation, reaching $1,880 and then dropping to $1,860 after an initial rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates excessive sales, suggesting the need for consolidation before any further declines. Factors such as the potential real estate crisis in China and the risk of a partial US government shutdown favor gold as a safe haven. However, expectations of a restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve limit optimism. The price of gold may continue to decline, with $1,880 representing a strong resistance and a crucial support level at $1,857-$1,858. Despite solid economic data from the United States, political uncertainty suggests caution. Focus on inflation and divisions in the US Congress add uncertainty to the gold market, keeping traders waiting for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data to guide future trading decisions. Additionally, the price is in the 1848 area, which, after breaking a swing low at the 1860 level, appears to be an excellent point to look for possible bullish reversals, although the price could further drop to the 1820 level, where we have an H4 demand zone. In the case of an upward movement, the price could rise to the physiological target of 1900. Let me know what you think, leave a like and comment to support our work. Greetings and have a good evening from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Effects of the USA Government Shutdown?GBP/USD reversed its direction and dropped below 1.2200 during the American session on Friday, after rising above 1.2270 earlier in the day. Position readjustments and profit-taking on the last trading day of the quarter seem to be weighing on the British Pound. If the pair stages a technical correction, it could face resistance at 1.2200 (20-period Simple Moving Average, mid-point of the descending regression channel), 1.2240 (upper limit of the descending channel), and 1.2300 (psychological level, 50-period SMA). On the downside, 1.2130 (static level from February) aligns as immediate support before 1.2100 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2050 (static level). GBP/USD broke through 1.2200 on Tuesday and extended its slide to a fresh six-month low below 1.2150. The near-term technical picture shows that the pair remains oversold. Investors, however, could opt to wait for a steady improvement in risk mood before positioning themselves for a convincing recovery in the pair. Wall Street's main indexes lost more than 1% on Tuesday amid growing fears over a US government shutdown. Although US stock index futures trade modestly higher, participants could refrain from betting on a risk rally unless Republicans and Democrats agree on a bipartisan spending bill ahead of Sunday's deadline. Later in the day, the US Census Bureau will release Durable Goods Orders data for August. Markets expect a 0.5% decrease following the 5.2% contraction recorded in July. If there is another big decline in this data, the initial reaction could hurt the USD. The US Department of Treasury will hold a 5-year US Treasury note auction in the American session on Thursday. In case there is a strong demand for bonds and a noticeable decline in the high-yield outcome, the USD could lose its strength. Nonetheless, investors are likely to stay focused on political developments in the US. In summary, the chart indicates a slightly bullish structure from Thursday, confirmed by the break of a swing high at the 1.2221 level. There's also an upward trendline supporting the price in this rise. A bounce off the trendline is expected to better assess a potential long or short exposure. Comment and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and have a good weekend from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EUR/USD bearish channel in September.EUR/USD slipped below 1.0600 during Friday's American session, retracting part of its daily gains, despite a positive market tone following PCE inflation data. The rebound from the year's lowest daily close improved the Euro's outlook, although the overall trend remains bearish. A potential recovery could reach 1.0700 without altering the bearish trend. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators suggest slight upside potential before the Asian session. However, overcoming the strong resistance at 1.0580 is crucial for further gains, initially targeting 1.0600 and then 1.0630. Conversely, consolidation below 1.0550 would increase bearish pressure, exposing support levels at 1.0520 and 1.0495. Thursday saw a sharp increase in EUR/USD, rebounding from monthly lows and nearing 1.0600, primarily driven by a correction in the US Dollar after an extended bullish period. Market sentiment weighed on the US Dollar, despite robust US economic data. Second-quarter GDP showed a 2.1% annualized growth, and Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected at 204,000. The key release of the week is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, which could trigger a USD rally if it indicates inflation increase. Comments from European Central Bank (ECB) members had minimal impact on the Euro. Market expectations point to no rate hike in October and low probabilities for December, with a strong perception that the ECB has peaked. However, data remains crucial, and recent news from Germany indicates a slight easing of inflation, providing some support for the Euro. Germany's annual inflation rate dropped from 6.1% to 4.5%. On Friday, Eurostat will release the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, expected at 4.5% (down from 5.2%) for the headline rate and 4.8% (down from 5.3%) for the core rate. At the 1.0530 level, we have a crucial point to consider for a possible price decrease or increase, given the bearish channel since early September. Comment and leave a like; greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Gold Next Move ( High or Low ? )TVC:GOLD fell to near 7-month lows Thursday as traders pushed the yellow toward mid $1,800 levels in a decisive break from the $1,900-an-ounce support decimated in the prior session. Gold’s collapse below the $1,900 level has opened the door for technical selling towards the $1,870 region,” added Moya. :”If global bond yields are heading higher despite expectations that inflation will come down, current market positioning could allow a gold plunge towards the $1,800 region. So my opinion about short term , the yellow metal OANDA:XAUUSD will retest to 1887 zone then we will see if he breaks the resistance line or reject it .
TVC:GOLDLong
by ZumixFX
4
EUR/USD: Can the Bullish Momentum Be Sustained?EUR/USD recently peaked at 1.0579, the highest in two days, before retracting to 1.0550, showcasing its best monthly performance despite an overall bearish trend. Market attention now centers on an upcoming speech by Fed Chair Powell. A sharp rebound post a yearly low's daily close has improved the Euro's outlook, potentially reaching 1.0700 without altering the bearish trend. On the 4-hour chart, slight upside potential is noted before the Asian session, with strong resistance around 1.0580. Surpassing this is crucial for potential gains to 1.0600 and then 1.0630, while a dip below 1.0550 would escalate bearish pressure towards support at 1.0520 and 1.0495. Thursday saw EUR/USD recovering from monthly lows, driven by a US Dollar correction. US economic data highlighted a robust economy, with Q2 GDP growth at 2.1% annualized and Initial Jobless Claims lower than expected at 204,000. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index release is pivotal for possible Dollar rallies. The impact of the ECB on the Euro is currently limited, with expectations of no rate hike soon. Data remains crucial, notably Germany's annual inflation rate dropping from 6.1% to 4.5%, alleviating concerns. Eurostat will release the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on Friday, expected at 4.5% (down from 5.2%) for the headline rate and 4.8% (down from 5.3%) for the core rate, providing insights into future trends. Let me know your thoughts, happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
GBP/USD: Will today be the big breakthrough?During the Asian session on Thursday, the GBP/USD pair rose from its recent low near 1.2110, indicating a move away from the lowest point touched since March 17. However, it remained below the mid-1.2100s, suggesting vulnerability to the persistent downtrend observed over the past two months. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart stayed well below 30, emphasizing oversold conditions, with the GBP/USD pair slightly below the lower limit of the descending regression channel, confirming oversold conditions. Potential resistance levels for a technical correction include 1.2200, 1.2240, and 1.2300, while immediate support lies at 1.2130, followed by 1.2100 and 1.2050. The GBP/USD pair had previously surpassed 1.2200 and slid below 1.2150, remaining in oversold conditions, and investors may await a stable improvement in risk sentiment before anticipating a significant recovery. On Tuesday, major Wall Street indexes witnessed a decline of over 1% due to concerns about a US government shutdown. Despite slightly higher US stock index futures, investors may hesitate to bet on a risk rally unless Republicans and Democrats reach an agreement on a bipartisan spending bill before the Sunday deadline. Later, the US Census Bureau will release Durable Goods Orders data for August, with the market expecting a 0.5% decrease. A notable decline could have an initial negative impact on the US dollar. Furthermore, a 5-year US Treasury note auction by the US Department of Treasury is scheduled, and strong demand for bonds could weaken the US dollar. However, attention remains focused on political developments in the US. On the H4 chart, it can be observed that the price has formed a bearish channel supporting the overall trend and that the price during the Asian session has marked a swing low, the second in that zone around 1.2120. From this point, I would expect an upward movement with a structural change, and later I will look for a long entry on M15, perhaps during New York immediately after today's macroeconomic data. Let's see how the price reacts. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
Is USD/JPY heading for a crash?The USD/JPY exchange rate is rising for the third consecutive day, driven by the strength of the US dollar, which has almost reached 106.30 on the DXY index despite a decline in consumer confidence in September. To keep Japanese inflation above 2%, higher wage growth is needed. Investors express concern about the long-term future as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates high. Meanwhile, the US manufacturing sector is in a vulnerable phase, with a weak order book indicating a possible contraction in activity. The Japanese yen struggles to stabilize as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) supports an accommodating monetary policy awaiting moderate wage growth. Japan is at a critical stage regarding boosting consumption and wage growth, with particular attention to exchange rate movements. Let me know your thoughts, happy trading to all from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EUR/USD: Is a Bullish Turn on the Horizon?EUR/USD hovers near six-month lows around 1.0550 during the Wednesday European session, facing a bearish phase. Despite the decline in US Treasury bond yields, the US Dollar retains recent gains, negatively impacting the pair. EUR/USD is near the lower limit of the descending regression channel, with the 4-hour chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly below 30, indicating oversold conditions. Possible resistance levels for a technical correction are 1.0600 (psychological level, 20-period Simple Moving Average, mid-point of the descending channel), followed by 1.0630 (upper limit of the descending channel, static level), and 1.0650 (50-period Simple Moving Average). On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.0550 (lower limit of the descending channel), followed by 1.0520 (static level from January), and 1.0500 (psychological level). EUR/USD stabilized above 1.0550 on Wednesday after slight losses on Tuesday. A modest improvement in risk sentiment might aid the pair in a mid-week technical correction, considering the oversold conditions. On Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD) remained a safe-haven asset despite declining US stock markets. Disappointing data from the US limited USD gains, allowing the pair to find support. Consumer confidence declined in September, and New Home Sales dropped by 8.7% in August. Later in the day, US Durable Goods Orders data will be crucial. Investors will also closely monitor the risk perception. Currently, US stock index futures were up between 0.3% and 0.5%. If Wall Street's main indexes open positively, on hopes of the US avoiding a government shutdown, the USD could start weakening against its rivals. Meanwhile, Frank Elderson, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) board, stated to Market News International on Wednesday that interest rates could rise further if necessary. The expectation involves waiting for a distribution and then seeking a structural upward change on M15 to enter a long position in case of a retracement to FVG. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Is XAUUSD Ready for a Rebound?On Tuesday, Spot Gold (XAU/USD) experienced a sharp decline, reaching a two-week low of $1,900.83, largely driven by a strong surge in the US Dollar amid a worsening market sentiment at the week's start. Investor concerns grew due to central banks' commitments to prolong higher interest rates and disappointing US economic data. The technical analysis for XAU/USD suggests a further downward trend, with the pair dropping below key moving averages, particularly the 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Momentum indicator is decreasing, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a bearish position. The 4-hour chart supports a bearish extension, highlighting a breach of the 200 SMA and downward momentum in technical indicators like RSI. XAU/USD has dipped below its previous September low and is now eyeing a test of the August monthly low. Key support and resistance levels are identified. The US CB Consumer Confidence Index and New Home Sales demonstrated concerning figures, amplifying worries about a potential recession. Despite some positive data from the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, the focus remains on the probability of monetary tightening and its implications on global markets. Wall Street responded with a sell-off, driving demand for the US Dollar and keeping XAU/USD within a lower monthly range. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury note yield reached its highest level since 2007, contributing to market jitters. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings and happy trading from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Will USDJPY be on a downward trend?The USD/JPY exchange rate is consolidating its recent rise to 149.00, the highest in the last 11 months, supported by the increase in US Treasury yields due to the determined stance of the Federal Reserve. However, there is a risk of Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market. USD/JPY has recovered the losses caused by the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain rates at -0.1%. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated the possibility of changing the interest rate policy when nearing the 2% inflation target. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading higher around 105.40, influenced by strong long-term US Treasury yields, the highest since 2007. Investors are monitoring economic data, such as the US PMIs for September, to assess trading opportunities. The latest US economic data presents a mixed picture. The Federal Reserve confirmed rates in the range of 5.25-5.50% and reiterated its commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target, with the possibility of rate hikes if necessary. The price has broken a significant swing high at the 148.85 level, giving an initial signal to consider a short entry. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings and happy trading from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD: Ready to Resume Long Positions?EUR/USD hit its lowest level since March, dropping below the critical threshold of 1.0600 on Monday. This decline was triggered by cautious comments from Lagarde, President of the ECB, regarding the future course of economic policy, leading to a defensive stance on the euro. In parallel, the US dollar benefited from prevailing risk aversion, maintaining pressure on EUR/USD. Technical analysis reveals that EUR/USD is within a descending regression channel, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below 50, confirming the short-term bearish trend. Key resistances are at 1.0670 (20-period Simple Moving Average) and 1.0690-1.0700 (50-period SMA, psychological level). On the downside, the most relevant support levels are 1.0630, 1.0600 (important psychological level), and 1.0580 (lower limit of the descending channel). Attention is focused on the US Manufacturing and Services PMI data by S&P Global, potentially influencing the dollar's performance. Investors closely monitor risk perception in financial markets, hoping for a potential positive reversal on Wall Street after the recent decline. In this context, a dominance of risk flows could support an extended rise in EUR/USD. A significant bullish signal is noted with the break of a significant swing low at 1.0611. We anticipate a long entry in New York, avoiding dollar trades during the announcement of macroeconomic data. Attention is high, and we appreciate comments and likes. Best regards, Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1