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EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of the FOMC!EUR/USD trims its gains for the day, hovering around the key psychological level of 1.0600 during the European session on Wednesday. The pair received some upward support due to a correction in the US Dollar (USD), likely influenced by speculations about a potential pause in the interest rate-hike cycle by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). If the pair decisively breaks below this level, it may face increased downward pressure, potentially targeting the area around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0572, followed by the significant level at 1.0500. On the upside, resistance for the EUR/USD pair could materialize around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0643. A solid breakthrough beyond this could pave the way for further exploration toward the psychological level at 1.0650. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line currently sits below the centerline, indicating that the short-term average is trailing the long-term average. However, an important observation is the divergence of this line above the signal line, suggesting a potential shift in momentum toward a bullish trend. Nonetheless, the prevailing momentum for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish, highlighting a persistent weaker bias, as indicated by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding below the 50 level. Comment and leave a like, greetings from Nicola the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
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TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
USD/JPY Ready for a Downturn After BOJ?The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a rebound, trading higher around 149.00 during the European session due to a positive risk sentiment amidst the Middle-East conflict. The Japanese Yen did not respond to the Bank of Japan's consideration of revising core inflation estimates upward. Federal Reserve's remarks led investors to downplay the possibility of further rate hikes. The recovery of the US Dollar contributed to the rebound. The ongoing Middle-East conflict shifted investors towards the US Dollar, putting pressure on the safe-haven Japanese Yen. The conflict escalated when Hamas initiated an attack on Israel, prompting a decisive response. The Bank of Japan is considering an upward revision of the core Consumer Price Index estimate for the fiscal year 2023/24. Japan's non-seasonally adjusted Current Account for August fell below forecasts. The Japanese economic calendar for the week only includes low-impact data. Japan will lead a G7 meeting to discuss the war in Ukraine and the global economy. The US Dollar Index is around 106.00, despite strong US Nonfarm Payroll data and a decline in US Treasury yields. Federal Reserve officials' remarks indicated a cautious approach to rate hikes, influencing the depreciation of the US Dollar. Investors are focused on upcoming inflation figures and the FOMC meeting minutes later in the week. Additionally, there is a strong bearish trendline after the break of a bullish trendline at the 150 level that is supporting the sharp decline. I am considering a possible short with liquidity take profit down to the 147.30 level. Let me know what you think. Regards from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Pauses, Awaiting FOMC and CPI!The EUR/USD exchange rate is above 1.0550, supported by a slight decline in the US dollar and decreasing US bond yields, while a positive risk tone weakens the dollar. Traders are awaiting key data for the week, including FOMC minutes and the US Consumer Price Index. The EUR/USD is below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and within a downtrend channel, but in the short term, it shows signs of stability, suggesting a possible test of key resistance levels. On the 4-hour chart, the price is above the 20-period SMA and consolidated above 1.0560, with the next resistance at 1.0580 and potential testing of last week's highs at 1.0600. The short-term bullish bias remains intact as long as the price stays above 1.0530, but a break below 1.0520 could target the area of 1.0500, indicating further weaknesses ahead. During the American session, the EUR/USD rose but remained below Friday's close, as the weakness of the US dollar was not sufficient to push the pair above 1.0600, and the euro was the weakest among the G10 currencies on Monday. New geopolitical concerns particularly weighed on the euro, causing it to decline against other major currencies. The 10-year German bond yield dropped by over 4.50% to 2.76%, with EUR/CHF sliding towards 0.9550, and EUR/GBP falling below 0.8640. Data showed a 0.2% decrease in German industrial production in August, worse than the expected 0.1% decrease. Investor confidence in the Eurozone also dropped in October to -21.9, higher than the market consensus of -25. No significant reports are scheduled for release on Tuesday in either the Eurozone or the US. The key figure of the week will be the US Consumer Price Index on Thursday. The US dollar strengthened across the board during the American session, benefiting from an improvement in risk sentiment following the market opening after Hamas' attack in Israel. The US Dollar Index (DXY) peaked at 106.60 but then pulled back to 106.00, ending with modest losses due to a decline in US bond yields. Additionally, on the H4 chart, the price is within a strong demand zone at the 1.0560-1.0480 level, and in this zone, a strong long reaction is expected for an upward continuation to the 1.0645 level, where we have an H4 supply zone and a downtrend trendline. The price in the Asian session has made a swing high, which could hinder the price's further rise. It will be important to assess the New York opening today to evaluate any position-taking. Looking forward to your feedback, comments, and likes. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Is a Nasdaq Pullback Coming?Excellent performance of the US technology index, with an increase of 1.70%. The day started weak, opening at 14,622.2 points, surpassing the previous session's lows. Throughout the day, the quotes strengthened, closing at 14,973.2, near the session highs. In the medium term, the Nasdaq 100 shows a negative trend. In the short term, there is the possibility of a slight upward movement, encountering resistance in the first area at 15,109.1. The first support is identified at 14,701.5. If positive signals occur, further growth is likely with a target at 15,516.7. I look forward to your feedback. Best regards, Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBP/USD anticipates an upturn towards 1.2250GBP/USD continued its decline following the bearish opening, dropping below 1.2200 on Monday. This was attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and speculations of a more restrictive Fed monetary policy. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remained above the 50 level despite the decline. Key resistance is set at 1.2200 (psychological level and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). If the pair stays below this level, potential tests include 1.2150 (50-period Simple Moving Average), followed by 1.2120 (upper limit of a broken descending regression channel) and 1.2100 (psychological level, static level). However, if GBP/USD rises and stabilizes above 1.2200, it may encounter resistance at 1.2230 (100-period Simple Moving Average) before reaching 1.2250 (static level). Last week, GBP/USD closed nearly unchanged after a steady rebound in the latter part of the week. The new week began with a bearish gap and a decline below 1.2200 due to a flight to safety, prompted by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The US Dollar (USD) gained from safe-haven flows, causing the USD Index to rise above 106.50 after a recent three-day slide. Notably, Israel responded to Hamas rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip, resulting in a death toll exceeding 1,100. The USD benefited from safe-haven demand, and the USD Index rose 0.4% on the day, recovering from its previous week's decline. On this day, US bond markets were closed for Columbus Day, while stock markets remained open, potentially influencing USD valuation. A bearish trend in US stocks could further bolster the USD's strength during the American session. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for continued tightening of monetary policy to maintain inflation at the 2% target. The US economic calendar lacked significant releases, directing investor focus toward risk perception. Additionally, in the market, we have a price that bounced back to the 1.2160 level, where we have a bullish trendline and a bullish divergence on the 15-minute chart, indicating a clear bullish view up to 1.223-1.225. Let me know what you think, happy trading from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/CAD: The Impact of War and Oil!During the first Asian session on Monday, the exchange rate between the US dollar (USD) and the Canadian dollar (CAD) continued to decline for the third consecutive session, settling around 1.3650. This drop is primarily influenced by a significant increase in oil prices, presumably linked to the ongoing military conflict between Palestine and Israel. This situation is putting pressure on the Canadian dollar, especially considering that Canada is the main oil exporter to the United States. Additionally, positive employment data in Canada may have helped support the value of the Canadian dollar. In September, a significant increase in new jobs (63.8K) was recorded, surpassing market expectations (20.0K) and exceeding the 39.9K in August. The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.5% for the month, in line with market expectations of 5.6%. The market is attentive to the escalating military conflict between Palestine and Israel, as this situation could have global geopolitical implications if it intensifies and spreads to other parts of the region. The US dollar (USD) rebounded after three consecutive days of losses, stabilizing around 106.20, thanks to strong Nonfarm Payrolls data released last Friday. In September, a significant increase in new jobs (336,000) was reported, surpassing market expectations of 170,000. The revised figure for August was 227,000. However, the average hourly earnings (MoM) remained steady at 0.2% in September, below the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, a 4.2% increase was reported, below the anticipated steady figure of 4.3%. US Treasury yields also increased, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. At the time of writing, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is around 4.80%, close to the 2007 peak. Investors will closely monitor the upcoming meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), during which strategies to stabilize international exchange rates and promote economic development will be discussed. Additionally, attention will be focused on the US Core Producer Price Index later in the week, as it plays a crucial role in analyzing inflationary trends and economic conditions in the United States. Furthermore, I would like to point out an important resistance/support zone at the level of 13640, in which it will be important to evaluate a potential price reaction for considering a possible short or long entry. Moreover, a bearish trendline configuration has formed, making one think more about a structural change to the downside at this moment. Let me know what you think, happy trading to all, greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD: Accumulation Ahead of NFP Data!Gold price is in a slightly bearish phase, staying below $1,820 due to the impact of the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond, which is above 4.7%. This situation makes it difficult for XAU/USD to undertake a significant recovery. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a bearish trend for XAU/USD, with indicators showing an abundance of sell signals in heavily oversold territory, without signs of downward exhaustion. The momentum indicator is accelerating downward, reaching around 94, while the relative strength index (RSI) is at 18. Meanwhile, moving averages confirm the bearish strength, well above the current level, highlighting the sellers' dominance. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the risk of further declines is evident. A simple 20-day moving average acts as dynamic resistance around $1,824.10. This indicates that XAU/USD is under the control of sellers, as confirmed by technical indicators that turned downward after a temporary correction in negative levels, reflecting the lack of interest from buyers despite the extremely oversold condition of the US dollar. Regarding support and resistance levels, it is expected that gold may find support at $1,804.70, $1,792.10, and $1,779.85, while it may encounter resistance at $1,824.10, $1,833.35, and $1,845.20. The spot price of gold is touching new multi-month lows, reaching $1,813 per troy ounce. Despite the extremely oversold conditions of the US dollar, the precious metal fails to attract buyers. The market is concerned about persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labor market, which could lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to further monetary restrictions, with the consequent risk of an economic recession. Hawkish comments from Fed officials this week and mixed signals from the employment sector keep these concerns alive, awaiting the Nonfarm Payrolls report for September. It is expected that 178,000 new jobs will be added in the month, while the unemployment rate is expected to contract from 3.8% to 3.7%. Before the event, US Treasury yields have slightly stabilized after reaching historical peaks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is currently at 4.72%, slightly down from a 16-year high of 4.88%, while the 2-year note offers 5.02% after soaring to 5.20% in mid-September. Lower yields prevent the US dollar from rallying in the short term. Furthermore, at the 1916 level, it seems that the price is accumulating for an imminent rise or fall. At the moment, my view is still long, with the price in the buy zone. It will be crucial to assess tomorrow's NFP data, which will definitely shake a price that has been too stagnant for days. Let me know what you think. Happy trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Thank you to all my Incredible 5000+ Followers To my incredible 5000 followers, I'm so grateful for your support over the months. I couldn't have reached this milestone without you. I Got this 5k+ Family Achievement in Just 6 Months Only 💥🚀 I love sharing my strategies with you all, and it means the world to me to know that you enjoy it. Your likes, comments, and shares keep me motivated and inspired to give more strategies. Thank you for being a part of this Trading community . I'm so lucky to have you all as my followers. Here's to 5000 more! Sincerely: @Jagadheesh_JP
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
by Jagadheesh_JP
2
Will USDCAD continue to rise?The USD/CAD exchange rate is approaching 1.3800 after the correction in the US dollar, while the oil price continues to decrease due to macroeconomic uncertainties. The direction of the US dollar and the Canadian dollar will depend on their respective official labor market data. The USD/CAD pair has reached a six-month high at 1.3785, and further upward movement towards the resistance at 1.3800 is anticipated. The Canadian dollar benefits from the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in oil prices, as Canada is the main oil exporter to the United States. Low oil prices negatively impact the Canadian dollar, as it is a significant source of revenue for the country. In the global context of economic uncertainties, the market is concerned about oil demand, influencing the price of crude oil. The US dollar shows interest among buyers despite the correction, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) showing a slight recovery. Private payroll data in the United States, reported by ADP, indicates a decrease in September, potentially affecting the US economic outlook. Overall, the chart pattern of USD/CAD suggests a bullish reversal after a long consolidation. Breaking the key resistance at 1.3800 could pave the way for further gains, while a breakdown below 1.3450 could initiate a descent towards 1.3400 and beyond. The RSI shows a bullish trend, indicating a potential positive momentum in the market. After the US data, we have observed a quiet price retracement to the level of 1.3735, within a demand zone at H4, where the price could bounce to continue the upward movement towards the 1.38/1.39 zone. Let me know what you think, happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Is the correction over?During Thursday's Asian session, EUR/USD continued the positive trend initiated in the previous session, hovering around 1.0520. The movement of this pair was influenced by market caution regarding the trajectory of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Despite the Euro experiencing a rebound, it is not out of danger yet, as the correction could continue without posing a significant threat to the dominant trend. Analyzing the daily chart, the Euro is notably below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and within a descending channel. Only a surpassing of 1.0660 could shift the short-term perspective towards neutrality. On the 4-hour chart, there is a potential for an upward extension in EUR/USD, especially if the price remains above the 20-period SMA at 1.0505. The immediate resistance is around 1.0555, followed by an intermediate descending trendline at 1.0570. A drop below 1.0480 would reveal recent lows at 1.0450, with possible support at 1.0430, corresponding to the lower channel boundary. Despite recovering from the lows seen in the past year against the US Dollar, the Euro struggles to maintain levels above 1.0500, remaining under pressure with a Dollar-favoring trend. The sale of government bonds is causing anxiety among investors, with German 10-year yields reaching 3%, the highest level since 2011, while US Treasury yields touched 4.88% before retracing. Higher yields, combined with slowing inflation, result in a significant increase in real yields. Data from the Eurozone shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.6% in August, in line with expectations, but the annual rate slipped into negative territory from -7.6% to -11.5%. Retail sales in the Eurozone decreased by 1.2% in August, worse than market forecasts of a -0.3% slide. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde reiterated that interest rates would remain at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary. Markets do not anticipate another rate hike, and statements from ECB officials currently seem to have limited impact. On Thursday, Germany will report trade data. The US Dollar Index retreated on Wednesday, but the upward trend remains intact, and fundamental factors still favor the Dollar. The disappointing ADP report accentuated the correction, but upcoming employment data, including Jobless Claims on Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, will be crucial. In essence, I expect a false breakout of the swing high at the 1.0530 level, followed by a decline targeting 1.0465 to touch the FVG at m15. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to all from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Is USD/JPY Ready for the BOJ Verdict?The USD/JPY pair stands near 149.20, reflecting recent losses and concerns about possible interventions in the market. The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has surged to 0.8%, a level not seen since 2013. In the US, JOLTS Job Openings exceeded expectations, suggesting a positive employment scenario. Key upcoming events include US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, closely monitored by traders. Initially, the pair dropped to 147.33 due to rumors of Japanese FX intervention but regained stability above 149.00. The increase in JGB yield pressures the Bank of Japan to reconsider its yield-curve cap and negative interest rate policy. Simultaneously, the US Treasury yield rises to 4.865%, the highest since 2007, strengthening the US dollar. Japanese officials are cautious about the timing and purpose of intervention, reminding traders of the 150.00 intervention level from the previous year. In particular, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester leans toward a rate hike, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic prefers patience. US job openings for August exceeded expectations, a potential indicator for the Fed's monetary policy. This week's US employment data could influence the Fed's approach. Traders eagerly await the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI and speculate on Japanese FX market intervention. The week concludes with a focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls data, influencing market sentiment. The price may break or even fake an upward breakout on H4 and then come down to the 147 zone to recover all the liquidity left in the market. Let me know what you think. Good evening from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
How will EUR/USD proceed in view of the NFP?The EUR/USD pair hit a new yearly low, nearly reaching 1.0450 on Tuesday before a slight bounce to around 1.0480. This drop was driven by a strong US dollar, supported by positive economic data and higher yields. However, the euro has slightly recovered. The daily chart shows a bearish trend with negative prospects below 1.0640. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is approaching the lower boundary of a descending channel, with 1.0450 as a key level, suggesting potential corrections or consolidations. However, a break below this level could lead to further declines, possibly targeting 1.0400. Resistance is observed around 1.0490 and 1.0520, with a continued downward trajectory below 1.0540. EUR/USD is at multi-month lows due to the strong US dollar and positive US labor market data. The Eurozone is awaiting inflation and retail sales data, while employment reports continue in the USA. Positive US JOLTS Job Opening data on Tuesday pushed the 10-year Treasury bond yield to 4.80%, a sign of a robust economy. More employment data is expected in the coming days, including the ADP employment report, jobless claims, and the official employment report, including Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. Favorable numbers in these reports could further boost the dollar's rally. Ongoing strong US economic data supports the US dollar rally, fueled by market expectations of higher long-term interest rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a decreasing market sentiment. On Wednesday, Eurostat will release the Producer Price Index and Retail Sales for August, along with final HICP PMIs. Market participants are speculating that the European Central Bank has reached its terminal rate. Additionally, the price seems to be bouncing right at a demand zone highlighted in a previous analysis, at the level of 1.0450, and false breaks have been made on the lows, namely on the swing lows present in this zone. In case of a strong bullish push, I would look for a M15 entry to go long with a target of 1.0542. Let me know what you think, greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Will XAU/USD Succeed in Climbing?The price of gold experienced a correction and stabilized above $1,820 after falling to a multi-month low of $1,815 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds above 4.7% ahead of US data, not allowing XAU/USD to extend its rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is signaling extremely oversold conditions and was seen as a key factor that prompted some intraday short-covering around the Gold price. However, the lack of further purchases suggests that the recent downtrend might still be far from being over. Consequently, any subsequent upward movement might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the $1,830-1,832 resistance zone. Sustained strength beyond this level could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the yellow metal to the $1,850 intermediate hurdle en route to the $1,858-1,860 strong barrier. On the flip side, the daily swing low, around the $1,815 level, could protect the immediate downside ahead of the $1,800 round-figure mark. Further selling could expose the next relevant support near the $1,770-1,760 region. The price of gold (XAU/USD) has been trending lower over the past two weeks or so following the Federal Reserve (Fed) signal that sticky inflation was likely to attract at least one more rate hike in 2023. Moreover, several Fed officials backed the case to keep rates restrictive for longer to bring inflation to the 2% target. Adding to this, the incoming resilient macro data from the United States (US) supports prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed. This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which lifts the US Dollar (USD) to its highest level since November 2022 and drives flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. The downward trajectory prolongs for the seventh successive day on Tuesday and drags the Gold price to its lowest level since March 9 during the Asian session. That said, a mildly softer tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields holds back the USD bulls from placing fresh bets and assists the precious metal to find some support near the $1,815 level. XAU/USD manages to recover a major part of its intraday losses, but lacks follow-through in the wake of hawkish Fed expectations and the underlying strong bullish sentiment surrounding the USD. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the downside. Also, as per the previous analysis, we have a price that has bounced off an H4 demand zone at the 1816 level as predicted. Now, we await an upward movement and a significant structural change at M15 to seek a long entry with a target zone of 1875. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Will EUR/USD be able to rise after Powell's words?The EUR/USD faced renewed bearish pressure, sliding towards 1.0500 on Monday, due to positive US Manufacturing PMI data in September. The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair suggests a downward extension, as technical indicators resumed their descent into negative levels after correcting oversold conditions from last week. Meanwhile, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to decline well above the current level and below the longer averages. In the short term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk also leans towards the downside. The pair slipped below its 20 SMA, while the longer averages show sharply downward slopes well above the current level. At the same time, technical indicators are descending almost vertically, with the Momentum indicator above the 100 level, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 38, reflecting persistent selling interest. The country released the official Manufacturing PMI, which rose in August to 50.2 from 49.7 the previous month. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also improved during the same period, rising from 51 to 51.7, beating expectations. Finally, the September Caixin Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.6, while the services index stopped at 50.2, below August's readings but still in expansionary territory. Meanwhile, S&P Global released the final estimates of the Euro Zone's September Manufacturing PMIs. The German index was revised downwards to 39.6, while the EU index was confirmed at 43.4. Later, S&P Global will publish the US Manufacturing PMI, while the country will release the official index expected at 47.7, a slight improvement from the previous 47.6. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a community discussion in York. Finally, the rise in US Treasury yields fueled demand for the US Dollar. The 10-year Treasury note yield reached 4.64%, the highest since 2007, while the 2-year note offers 5.10% before the opening, up 5 basis points (bps). In fact, the price approached the level of 1.0480, where we have a significant swing low, and after the breakout of the previous swing at the level of 1.0560, my view is highly bullish. This is because the price is near a very important H4 demand zone, and in that zone, one could look for some directional change at M15. Let me know what you think. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
8
XAUUSD H4 Outlook after USA News!The price of gold experienced a significant oscillation, reaching $1,880 and then dropping to $1,860 after an initial rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates excessive sales, suggesting the need for consolidation before any further declines. Factors such as the potential real estate crisis in China and the risk of a partial US government shutdown favor gold as a safe haven. However, expectations of a restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve limit optimism. The price of gold may continue to decline, with $1,880 representing a strong resistance and a crucial support level at $1,857-$1,858. Despite solid economic data from the United States, political uncertainty suggests caution. Focus on inflation and divisions in the US Congress add uncertainty to the gold market, keeping traders waiting for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data to guide future trading decisions. Additionally, the price is in the 1848 area, which, after breaking a swing low at the 1860 level, appears to be an excellent point to look for possible bullish reversals, although the price could further drop to the 1820 level, where we have an H4 demand zone. In the case of an upward movement, the price could rise to the physiological target of 1900. Let me know what you think, leave a like and comment to support our work. Greetings and have a good evening from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Effects of the USA Government Shutdown?GBP/USD reversed its direction and dropped below 1.2200 during the American session on Friday, after rising above 1.2270 earlier in the day. Position readjustments and profit-taking on the last trading day of the quarter seem to be weighing on the British Pound. If the pair stages a technical correction, it could face resistance at 1.2200 (20-period Simple Moving Average, mid-point of the descending regression channel), 1.2240 (upper limit of the descending channel), and 1.2300 (psychological level, 50-period SMA). On the downside, 1.2130 (static level from February) aligns as immediate support before 1.2100 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2050 (static level). GBP/USD broke through 1.2200 on Tuesday and extended its slide to a fresh six-month low below 1.2150. The near-term technical picture shows that the pair remains oversold. Investors, however, could opt to wait for a steady improvement in risk mood before positioning themselves for a convincing recovery in the pair. Wall Street's main indexes lost more than 1% on Tuesday amid growing fears over a US government shutdown. Although US stock index futures trade modestly higher, participants could refrain from betting on a risk rally unless Republicans and Democrats agree on a bipartisan spending bill ahead of Sunday's deadline. Later in the day, the US Census Bureau will release Durable Goods Orders data for August. Markets expect a 0.5% decrease following the 5.2% contraction recorded in July. If there is another big decline in this data, the initial reaction could hurt the USD. The US Department of Treasury will hold a 5-year US Treasury note auction in the American session on Thursday. In case there is a strong demand for bonds and a noticeable decline in the high-yield outcome, the USD could lose its strength. Nonetheless, investors are likely to stay focused on political developments in the US. In summary, the chart indicates a slightly bullish structure from Thursday, confirmed by the break of a swing high at the 1.2221 level. There's also an upward trendline supporting the price in this rise. A bounce off the trendline is expected to better assess a potential long or short exposure. Comment and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and have a good weekend from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EUR/USD bearish channel in September.EUR/USD slipped below 1.0600 during Friday's American session, retracting part of its daily gains, despite a positive market tone following PCE inflation data. The rebound from the year's lowest daily close improved the Euro's outlook, although the overall trend remains bearish. A potential recovery could reach 1.0700 without altering the bearish trend. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators suggest slight upside potential before the Asian session. However, overcoming the strong resistance at 1.0580 is crucial for further gains, initially targeting 1.0600 and then 1.0630. Conversely, consolidation below 1.0550 would increase bearish pressure, exposing support levels at 1.0520 and 1.0495. Thursday saw a sharp increase in EUR/USD, rebounding from monthly lows and nearing 1.0600, primarily driven by a correction in the US Dollar after an extended bullish period. Market sentiment weighed on the US Dollar, despite robust US economic data. Second-quarter GDP showed a 2.1% annualized growth, and Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected at 204,000. The key release of the week is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, which could trigger a USD rally if it indicates inflation increase. Comments from European Central Bank (ECB) members had minimal impact on the Euro. Market expectations point to no rate hike in October and low probabilities for December, with a strong perception that the ECB has peaked. However, data remains crucial, and recent news from Germany indicates a slight easing of inflation, providing some support for the Euro. Germany's annual inflation rate dropped from 6.1% to 4.5%. On Friday, Eurostat will release the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, expected at 4.5% (down from 5.2%) for the headline rate and 4.8% (down from 5.3%) for the core rate. At the 1.0530 level, we have a crucial point to consider for a possible price decrease or increase, given the bearish channel since early September. Comment and leave a like; greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Gold Next Move ( High or Low ? )TVC:GOLD fell to near 7-month lows Thursday as traders pushed the yellow toward mid $1,800 levels in a decisive break from the $1,900-an-ounce support decimated in the prior session. Gold’s collapse below the $1,900 level has opened the door for technical selling towards the $1,870 region,” added Moya. :”If global bond yields are heading higher despite expectations that inflation will come down, current market positioning could allow a gold plunge towards the $1,800 region. So my opinion about short term , the yellow metal OANDA:XAUUSD will retest to 1887 zone then we will see if he breaks the resistance line or reject it .
TVC:GOLDLong
by ZumixFX
4