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Will GBP/USD manage to rise?On GBP/USD, we have a price that is within a buying range, between the levels 1.2340 and 1.24. Currently, my objective is to look for a structural breakout on M15 during the London session at opening and closing, and during the New York opening. The price could reach the selling range at the 0.38% Fibonacci level at 1.2435 and then test the second selling range at level 1.25, which is the 0.5% Fibonacci level. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone, from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Will the FED Surprise by Raising Rates?On EUR/USD, we have a bearish setup in anticipation of the FED meeting this week, specifically regarding the interest rate decision. The market has broken seven swing lows from the 1.07 - 1.0670 level, demonstrating its explosive strength. However, I continue to emphasize this simple concept: a break of a swing low signifies a show of strength, but at the same time, it's an excellent opportunity to look for long positions, essentially at the lows. In this case, on Monday during the London session, I will look for a falling wedge pattern at the 15-minute chart with a possible entry at a Falling Wedge Breakout (FVG) and a potential target at the 0.62% Fibonacci retracement level, which is at 1.071. Let me know what you think. Greetings and happy trading to everyone, from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
Role of Risk Management in Trading and How to calculate riskThe Foundations of Solid Risk Management 🛡️📊: Risk management in trading involves a series of strategic decisions aimed at minimizing potential losses. It revolves around understanding the risks associated with each trade and employing measures to mitigate them. Whether you're a novice or an experienced trader, risk management remains a non-negotiable aspect of sustainable trading. 👍 Pros of Effective Risk Management: Shields your trading capital from significant losses. Provides a structured framework for decision-making. Fosters discipline and rationality in the face of market fluctuations. 👎 Cons of Neglecting Risk Management: Exposes your portfolio to undue risks that can lead to substantial losses. Increases the likelihood of emotional decision-making driven by fear and greed. The Emotional and Financial Benefits of Risk Management 🧘‍♂️❤️: Effective risk management isn't just about preserving your financial resources; it's also about maintaining emotional equilibrium. When traders implement robust risk management strategies, they reduce the psychological stress and anxiety that often accompany trading. This enables traders to make more logical decisions, avoiding impulsive actions triggered by heightened emotions. Calculating Position Size and Setting Stop Losses 📈🛑: Two key elements of risk management are calculating the appropriate position size and setting stop-loss levels. These practices are integral to controlling the amount of capital at risk in each trade. By determining the position size based on a percentage of your capital and setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses, traders ensure that no single trade can significantly erode their account balance. Comparing Potential Losses and Gains for Different Risk Management Scenarios 💹📉: Let's explore how the 2% rule affects potential outcomes for different risk management scenarios: Risking 2% of a $1000 Deposit: Maximum Risk per Trade: $20 (2% of $1000) Potential Loss: Limited to $20 per trade Potential Gain: Can vary, but the focus is on maintaining risk control Risking 5% of a $1000 Deposit: Maximum Risk per Trade: $50 (5% of $1000) Potential Loss: Larger at $50 per trade Potential Gain: Higher, but the risk of significant losses is elevated Risking 10% of a $1000 Deposit: Maximum Risk per Trade: $100 (10% of $1000) Potential Loss: Considerably larger at $100 per trade Potential Gain: Higher compared to 2% risk, but risk of capital depletion is significant How to calculate your position size ? You can easily calculate risk directly in TradingView using the built-in calculator! Choose the direction of your position - long or short. The next step is to set up according to your deposit and risk per trade. After that, simply drag it onto the chart in line with your stop loss and take profit (more on this in the upcoming article), and it will automatically calculate the position size for you!
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
11
GBP/USD Will Today be the Big Day?On GBP/USD, we have identified a bearish setup following the Eurozone data and the data on the dollar. During this morning, the market began to change its structure on a 15-minute timeframe, creating an important entry zone at the level of 1.2412. This trade will be confirmed today during the London ink hour, that is after the release of US data, which could affect this idea in case of significant results for the dollar. Naturally, looking at the chart, it is noticeable that the price has broken several swing lows, thus creating two selling zones: one at the level of 1.2480 and another at the level of 1.2550. The first one will be used as a target in case of a long entry. Let me know what you think. Greetings and happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Battle-tested through the ups and downs of Etherium historyA trading strategy that's been battle-tested through the ups and downs of Eth's history. This strategy doesn't blink in the face of market chaos or get swayed by emotions. It's a calculated game plan that knows when to step in and when to step back. Compare that to emotional investing, where fear and greed call the shots. Imagine making decisions when you're on an emotional rollercoaster—buying high in excitement and selling low in panic. That's a recipe for disaster. A backtested risk-managed strategy, though, is like a cool-headed coach that sticks to the game plan no matter what. It's about discipline, rules, and consistency. So, do you want to ride the emotional wave or play the long game with a strategy that has been consistently profitable year on year since 2016 (start of Eth - substantiated by backtest data). Average annual net profit (substantiated by the backtest) 196% (No Leverage) & 661% (3x leverage) This year (Jan 2023 to Sep/15th/2023) has already generated 45.21% (no leverage) 144.93% (3x leverage) in net profit. This strategy does Not re-paint, No-look ahead bias. and 100% forward tested. Tradingview has a default caution for strategies that use the multitimeframes data. This does not apply to this strategy as all calculations are based on closed bars. So how does it work? Postions are entered based on RSI Divergence on Higher Timeframes and confirmed by the ATR. Stop Loss and Trailing ATR-based Take Profit:The strategy incorporates a risk management mechanism with a built-in stop loss set at 8%. Additionally, it employs a trailing take profit mechanism based on ATR. This means that as the trade moves in the desired direction, the take profit level adjusts itself based on the current volatility, allowing for gains to be secured as the trend progresses. SMI-based Re-entry after Stop-out: Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is used as a re-entry signal if the trade is stopped out (i.e., the stop loss is triggered). This re-entry is contingent on higher timeframes and ATR still supporting the original trend, indicating that the initial stop-out may have been a false signal. Portfolio Reinvestment for Compound Growth: The strategy allocates 95% of the portfolio's capital to each trade. This approach maximizes the potential for compound growth, as a significant portion of the available capital is reinvested in each trade, provided that risk management rules are satisfied. This approach is appropriate for this strategy as strict risk management is applied and the winrate is almost 50% Accounting for Exchange Fees: Exchange fees, set at 0.1%, are factored into the strategy's calculations. This ensures that trading decisions take into account the cost of executing trades on the exchange. Avoiding Lookahead Bias and Repainting: The strategy is designed to prevent lookahead bias by making calculations based only on closed bars of price data. Lookahead bias occurs when future data is used to make past trading decisions, potentially leading to unrealistic expectations.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDEducation
by TradingAlgorithms
Mechanical Consistency Weekly Review 8; +8% Return.04 Sep to 08 Sep 2023 TL;DR Total Profit of approximately $800 (around +800%) for the 1st week of September 2023. Total 8 trades, 6 wins & 2 loss. 1-hour Timeframe, Oanda, XAUUSD(Gold), $10,000 Capital, $200/ 2% per trade. Mechanical Consistency Trading Strategy; Purely rule-based strategy, zero guesswork, zero analysis. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. The content for this article is purely for educational/research purposes only and is merely based on my personal opinions. Please note: There will be affiliate links in this article. But it will only benefit both of us. If you do not wish to participate under my affiliate links, please feel free to Google them separately. Cheers! I'm truly thankful for yet another successful week employing my mechanical consistency strategy. My retracement trades are consistently delivering the expected results, while any losses I've incurred can be attributed solely to my mean reversion trades on Tuesday. Let's review every day. Monday (04 September 2023) 1x Win Trade Daily bias: Downtrend I was only able to trigger a retracement trade on Monday, but it turned out to be a highly profitable one. Despite the slowing down at night, I was fortunate that the price continued its downtrend the following day, reaching my desired profit level. Tuesday (05 September 2023) 2x Lose trades Daily bias: Downtrend The only losing days I've had this week were both due to my mean reversion trades. These trades carry significant risk since they go against the prevailing trend, relying on a rebound to reach my 21 SMA+EMA level. Unfortunately, the downward trend proved to be stronger, resulting in losses. Wednesday (06 September 2023) 1x Partial win & 1x full win trades Daily bias: Downtrend Contrastingly, I managed to secure a profit with my two mean reversion trades on Wednesday. Fortunately, the price did rebound successfully in both cases, albeit with the first trade yielding a partial profit and the second trade lasting until Friday morning. Nonetheless, I'm quite satisfied with the overall outcome. Thursday (07 September 2023) 0x trade Daily bias: Downtrend There were no trades on Thursday as my mechanical consistency strategy did not trigger any of my limit orders. It was yet another stress-free day for me. Friday (08 September 2023) 1x partial win 2x solid win trades Daily bias: Uptrend Friday turned out to be quite a rollercoaster day for me, with three consecutive trades triggering throughout the day. Fortunately, all of these trades ended in profit. The first mean reversion trade yielded a partial win, the second mean reversion trade was an immediate victory with zero drawdowns, and the third retracement trade delivered a profit by Monday morning. Endnote While I encountered some losses with my mean reversion trades due to their inherent risk of going against the trend, I also enjoyed significant profits from retracement and mean reversion trades that went as planned. Despite the fluctuations, my mechanical consistency strategy helped maintain a stress-free approach to trading, and I ended the week on a positive note, with successful trades on Friday. This experience reinforces the importance of a well-rounded trading strategy and the need to adapt to market conditions while remaining disciplined and focused on long-term goals. Learn My Strategy For Free As a full-time working individual, I do not have the time to constantly monitor the charts and look for the "perfect" trading opportunity. This is why I adopted the mechanical trading strategy to earn extra money. This approach eliminates the need for extensive technical or fundamental analysis and removes any guesswork. It is a 100% Mechanical rule-based strategy, ensuring disciplined and consistent decision-making. If you want to learn my strategy, please visit my blogging site, link in bio. Thank you!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Barry_Games_Trading
Will the ECB push up the EURGBP price?On EURGBP, we have a bullish setup, as can be seen from the highlighted trendline. The price is within an H4 demand box where it recorded an FVG/Imbalance at the level of 0.8580 this morning, and where we could look for a long entry with the target being the yellow box at the level of 0.8620. This represents another area for a GVG imbalance where we could instead look for a short entry. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
EURUSD CPI has confirmed the story already written!On EURUSD, we have a bullish setup with the price currently in a buying zone, within which there are two more. The price retraced to an uptrend line and is gearing up for a significant upward movement. This movement has been confirmed by the market after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, despite positive data for the dollar, showing that an algorithm is actually pulling the strings, and the story has already been written. In fact, the CPI only caused a temporary downward volatility to further validate the entire area. So, what can we say? We're awaiting the European Central Bank (ECB) tomorrow, but the setup is bullish, and there's little more to add. Target at 1.08 with a stop below 1.07. Let me know what you think. Leave a like and comment to support our work. Happy trading, everyone.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
EURJPY Is it time to go short?On EURJPY, we can observe a bullish setup following a breakout of a bearish trendline. The price has breached a significant swing high at the 157.70 level, creating a buying zone, as seen on the chart. This zone might also lead the price to retest the trendline. Furthermore, the price around 158.44 appears to have made highs during the Asian session and seems to have made a false breakout with the last 4-hour candle at a swing high level of 158.50. My objective will be to look for short-term trading opportunities during the London session. I'll keep an eye on this currency pair only in the morning and it will be the only one I'll monitor at least until noon when we have the U.S. CPI data. Let me know what you think, happy trading, everyone.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
AUD/JPY - The Price of PatienceThe AUD/JPY pair is trading in a sideways range on the 30-minute chart, with the price currently consolidating between the 94.20 and 94.40 levels. The pair has been trading in this range for the past few days, and it is unclear which way it will break out. Fundamental Analysis The fundamental factors that are affecting the AUD/JPY pair include the following: The Australian economy is growing at a slower pace than expected, which is weighing on the Australian dollar. The Japanese economy is also growing at a slower pace, but the Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates low, which is supportive of the Japanese yen. The risk appetite of investors is declining, which is making them less willing to hold riskier assets like the Australian dollar. Technical Analysis The technical indicators on the 30-minute chart are mixed. The RSI is neutral, while the MACD is bearish. The stochastic oscillator is also bearish, but it is starting to turn up. Conclusion The AUD/JPY pair is trading in a sideways range on the 30-minute chart. The fundamental factors are mixed, and the technical indicators are also mixed. The pair is likely to remain range-bound for the time being, but it could break out to the upside or downside if there is a significant change in the fundamental or technical factors.
by YExplore
EURUSD Long BIAS + Pre-CPI Accumulation!On EURUSD, we have a bullish setup with the price located in a buying zone, within which there are two more. The price has retraced on a bullish trendline and is gearing up for a significant upward impulse. Everyone is awaiting tomorrow's data on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), while the price is accumulating in the meantime. It will be important to prepare for the distribution phase tomorrow. Furthermore, in the case of a long trade, one could target the level of 1.08, where we have a previous swing high, with a possible stop below 1.07 for now. Let me know what you think. Leave a like and comment in support of our work. Happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
USDJPY Waiting CPI + Long Bias!On USDJPY, we have a bearish setup with the price, which, after the structural break of two swings at the level of 146, has started to show signs of a change in direction, from short to long. On the 15-minute chart, during the London session, I identified an entry box, which is an area of inefficiency or FVG at the level of 146.15. In this zone, we might consider entering long tomorrow if there is a retracement during the American session. In addition to this zone, tomorrow I will look for further confirmations to continue in the long direction. Let me know what you think, leave a like, and comment. Happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBPJPY Will tomorrow be the big downturn?On GBPJPY, we have a bullish setup after a bearish start to the week. The price, reaching the level of 184.26, broke a swing high on Friday, signaling a potential downturn. Furthermore, the price is getting closer to a supply area, specifically the range of 184.50 - 184.80, where we could look for a short opportunity. My goal for tomorrow, at the opening of the London session, will be to seek a potential bearish setup on a 15-minute chart (M15). I'll wait for a structural change followed by a liquidity pickup in a specific market phase, and then I'll enter the market. I'll only consider trading GBPJPY during the London trading session, and only if my setup occurs. Otherwise, I'll remain on the sidelines and monitor the situation. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and have a great Sunday.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
Is EUR/USD ready to return to the highs? On the EUR/USD pair, we have a bearish setup with the price currently located around 1.07, between two potential reversal zones, one supply and one demand. Both of these zones are clearly marked on the chart, and we can see how the price has used them during the week to change its bias. The biggest issue is that the price is within a significant buy order block zone, which is highly potential for buying. The price has reacted to recent news, and the economic sentiment is returning to the price levels of June 2023. Consequently, my view remains highly bullish. Wishing you good trading and a pleasant weekend!
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
USDCAD: Dollar comeback on Monday!On the USD/CAD pair, we have a bearish setup following today's very favorable news for the Canadian dollar. The price has broken a swing low at the level of 1.3679, effectively paving the way for a bullish scenario. This scenario could also occur if the price reaches the 1.36 area, where we have a significant demand zone that could influence the price. Naturally, I will be looking for a breakout to the upside during the opening of the American markets on Monday, and in case of confirmation on the 15-minute chart (M15), I will enter a long position with the target at the swing high level of 1.37.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
SPWH Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SPWH Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 5usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2023-9-15, for a premium of approximately $0.65. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:SPWHShort
by TopgOptions
EURUSD Long BIAS with ICT setup!On the EUR/USD pair, I noticed a H4 closing with a spike at a swing low. This, to me, means only one thing: looking for a bullish structure to enter the market long. I've just checked the US unemployment data, and it came out favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for indices and, consequently, for the euro as well. So, my bullish view might be too early, but for now, I see a good price reaction before the opening of the American market. I will now look for a long entry. Stay tuned. Happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
USD/JPY Today will be the big day for a short!On the USD/JPY currency pair, I've identified a bullish setup. The price is consistently breaking previous swing highs, forming new highs. However, it's important to note that my view on the H4 (4-hour) timeframe has remained bearish for over a week. I'm currently waiting for a structural breakout on the M15 (15-minute) timeframe, combined with a Formation of Valid Grounds (FVG), before considering entering the market. I want to emphasize that I'm particularly focused on identifying these entry points during the most significant trading hours, which are the opening of the London and New York sessions, as well as the closing of the London session. I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts and insights on this analysis. Wishing everyone successful trading endeavors ahead!
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1