XAUUSD RE-TEST BEFORE A LONG TRADE H1On gold, we have a price that has stabilized in the range of 1050-1960 after a strong rally following the US data. In fact, we have seen a truly weak dollar during the week, except for yesterday when the greenback managed to regain some ground. However, I expect a price rebound in the 1938 zone, which corresponds to the 0.5% Fibonacci level, as the price is currently at the 0.25% level, which has acted as support. Therefore, I anticipate a retracement before going long and retesting the 1965 levels in the supply zone. If you'd like, we would be really grateful if you shared your opinion and left a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Strategy!
Exploring Forex Trading's Price Gaps: Opportunities and RisksWithin the realm of forex trading, price gaps emerge as a frequent and remarkable occurrence, distinguished by substantial disparities between an asset's closing and opening prices. These gaps materialize due to an array of factors, encompassing shifts in investor sentiment, alterations in market liquidity, and the dissemination of consequential news. Acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the diverse types of price gaps, their underlying causes, and the implications they carry assumes paramount importance for traders aiming to effectively exploit these market opportunities while astutely managing the associated risks.
Price gaps come into existence when a discernible void arises between an asset's closing price on one trading day and its subsequent opening price on the following day. These gaps manifest in a variety of forms, each embodying distinctive characteristics and wielding implications for traders. Among the common types of price gaps are breakaway gaps, runaway gaps (also referred to as continuation gaps), and exhaustion gaps.
Breakaway gaps frequently manifest subsequent to a period of consolidation or a significant market event. These gaps act as a signal of potential trend alterations, offering traders opportunities to establish new positions in alignment with the emerging market direction.
Runaway gaps, conversely, arise within an established trend, reinforcing its continuity. They serve as a testament to surging market momentum, often propelled by fresh developments or an influx of trading activity. For traders who have already positioned themselves in line with the prevailing trend, runaway gaps provide affirmation and the potential for further profits.
Exhaustion gaps surface towards the conclusion of a trend, heralding a prospective reversal or temporary pause in the prevailing market sentiment. These gaps are frequently accompanied by dwindling trading volume, serving as a cautious indication for traders to reassess their positions and adapt their strategies accordingly.
Comprehending the causative factors behind price gaps is indispensable for traders seeking to decipher their significance and seize potential opportunities. Price gaps can arise due to sudden shifts in investor sentiment prompted by news releases, economic indicators, or geopolitical events. Moreover, market liquidity discrepancies, particularly during periods of low trading activity like weekends or holidays, can contribute to the occurrence of gaps.
Traders must meticulously evaluate the implications of price gaps and remain cognizant of the associated risks. While gaps can furnish lucrative opportunities, they also entail potential challenges. Swift price movements during gap openings can lead to slippage, wherein executed orders are filled at prices significantly divergent from the intended entry or exit levels. Additionally, the scarcity of liquidity during gap periods can yield widened spreads, underscoring the importance of deploying appropriate risk management techniques.
To adeptly navigate price gaps, traders can employ an array of strategies. These may encompass the utilization of gap trading techniques that harness the initial price movement following a gap, or adopting a more cautious approach that awaits confirmation of the market's response before entering a trade. Furthermore, implementing stop-loss orders and trailing stops can help mitigate risks associated with adverse price movements.
Do Gaps Always Close?
The closure of gaps in trading is not guaranteed, but statistical data suggests that gaps are closed at least 70% of the time, particularly when looking at weekly gaps. However, it's important to note that not all assets reach such closure levels. Among currency pairs, EUR/JPY, GBP/EUR, and GBP/JPY tend to exhibit a higher tendency to compensate for price gaps.
Exhaustion gaps are generally considered the most reliable for closure trades. When attempting to forecast gap closure, it is advisable to analyze the technical chart patterns alongside the fundamental background. If there is a divergence between these factors, it may be wise to exercise caution and refrain from engaging in active trading. In such cases, it is recommended to rely on the forecasts of other instruments to shape the overall trading outlook.
Gaps can pose risks for traders in certain situations:
1) Small trading deposits: If a trader is operating with a limited deposit that does not allow for position insurance when faced with significant and unfavorable price gaps, it can be risky. Insufficient funds to cover potential losses from a large gap can result in substantial financial consequences.
2) Lack of proper risk management: If a trader fails to set appropriate stop-loss levels or neglects to place them at all, particularly when holding positions over the weekend where gaps commonly occur, it can leave them exposed to significant losses if the market moves against their forecast.
3) Random price gaps in low time frames: Gaps that appear sporadically in lower time frames can be misleading and confusing. To avoid making impulsive decisions based on such signals, it is important to synchronize the analysis with fundamental events and consider incorporating technical indicators into the trading strategy.
Traders who pursue short-term trading with small profit goals are particularly susceptible to the risks associated with price gaps. Even a small gap can lead to losses for this category of traders, as their profit margins may be narrow.
In contrast, mid-term and long-term traders typically have less concern about the impact of gaps. Their trading strategies aim for larger profit targets, often spanning hundreds or thousands of points, where the impact of a single gap of a few tens of points is relatively insignificant.
Using Price Gaps In Trading Practice:
Price gaps can be utilized in trading practice using market and pending orders to take advantage of potential opportunities. Considerations such as the probability of closure, gap size, and time frame are taken into account.
For instance, in a 30-minute time frame, if a price gap of at least 20 points is observed at the market opening, the price tends to move within the gap for the first half-hour due to inertia.
In the case of a bullish gap, a market order to buy can be placed, while the Take Profit level can be determined using additional analysis tools. Similarly, for a bearish gap, a sell order can be activated.
If a gap appears against the prevailing trend, the likelihood of the gap closing increases. In such scenarios, pending orders like Buy Stop for an uptrend or Sell Limit for a downtrend can be effective.
One of the challenges is setting an appropriate Stop Loss. Take Profit levels can be adjusted, considering factors such as the Friday closing level, slightly above it, or at local peaks (maximum or minimum) observed on Friday.
It is crucial to exercise caution and consider risk management techniques when trading based on price gaps. Traders should thoroughly analyze market conditions, employ suitable order types, and carefully determine their entry and exit levels to optimize trading outcomes.
In conclusion , price gaps in forex trading serve as important indicators of market dynamics and present potential opportunities for traders. By analyzing the type of gap, incorporating support and resistance levels, and utilizing technical indicators and candlestick patterns, traders can make informed decisions to capitalize on these market phenomena. It's essential to note that gaps do not always close, and traders should be mindful of this fact. To enhance trading strategies, it is beneficial to align technical analysis with fundamental factors and consider the broader market context. Caution should be exercised, especially when trading with smaller deposits and during periods of increased market volatility, in order to manage the risks associated with price gaps effectively. By incorporating thorough analysis and risk management techniques, traders can navigate price gaps with greater confidence and optimize their trading outcomes.
GBPNZD LONG TRADE AFTER GBP NEWS On GBPNZD, an interesting scenario is unfolding this morning. The price has generated two demand zones with two value gaps, providing two excellent potential reversal points for a long entry. One is at the level of 2.0720, and the other is at 2.0690, where the market has already retraced twice at 23:00 and then at 05:00, indicating two entries in a timeframe that holds significance. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
GBPUSD LONG TRADE - STRONG GBP NEWSOn GBP/USD, we have a bullish setup after Friday's news and a market that could potentially go further up after tomorrow's news on the pound. Currently, we have two value gaps, which represent two possible entry zones: a short trade within a highlighted red supply zone and a long trade within a highlighted green demand zone. The perspective is currently long, but everything could change. Remember to always wait for operational confirmations before entering the market. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion with us and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USDCHF REVERSAL ZONE H1 - SHORT TRADEOn USDCHF, we have a slightly bearish setup this morning, with the price forming a breaker block pattern around the 0.8940 level. In this area, we can expect a possible rebound, so it would be advisable to consider entering a short trade with a target of 0.88. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion with us and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
NZDUSD WAITING LONDON SESSIONOn NZDUSD, we have a point of interest at the level of 0.6170 where the price has formed a breaker block and a poi (point of inefficiency). In the case of the breaker block, I am waiting for confirmation for a short entry during the London session. In the case of the poi, I am waiting for a retracement that is confirmed by volume to go long with the objective of recovering all the inefficiency created by the market after the US news yesterday. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion. Greetings and have a great day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
GBPUSD LONG SETUP H1 BEFORE NFPOn GBPUSD, we have a bullish trade that could retrace to the 1.2730 area, where we have a demand zone within a larger one. In case of a retracement, it will be crucial to monitor the volumes at the entry before opening a long position. The target is then set at the 1.2830 area to fill the inefficiency left in the market after the UK CPI release two weeks ago. We would be delighted to hear your opinion and if you could leave a like to support our work. Greetings and have a great day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
EURUSD SHORT SETUP M15 + H1 BEFORE NFPOn EURUSD, we have a bearish setup with the price currently at the lower end of a channel. I expect a retracement around the 1.0876 area, where we have a significant gap on the H1 timeframe within a supply zone. Before entering, I will wait for price confirmation on both the M15 and H1 charts. Then, I will assess the short entry with a target at 1.0830. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and have a great day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
NZDJPY BREAKER BLOCK ENTRY M15 On NZDJPY, we have a bearish setup following yesterday's rally. As the price rose, it created a breaker block around the 0.8913 area. This will be our entry point for a long position with a target at 0.8966. The breaker block was formed on the M15 timeframe when the price broke out of the previous supply zone. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and have a great day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USDCAD LONG SETUP BEFORE FOMC + OPECOn USDCAD, we have a bullish setup with the price retracing to the 1.3226 area, touching a minor demand within the main demand zone. I have used this level as a possible entry zone with a target at 1.33. With the upcoming OPEC and FOMC events, the dollar could potentially have a bullish push this morning, considering also the DXI, which appears to have a bullish trend. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and give a like to support our work. Greetings and have a good day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
XAUUSD SHORT SIGNAL H1 SETUPOn gold, we have a bearish tendency in the long term after a strong rally on Friday. The price seems to have consolidated around 1918, where we have an H1 value gap with a high reaction force for a possible reversal and a trendline that the price has touched for the fifth time. The target for a short trade will be at the level of 1985, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:2. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
EdgePro - BTC Swing StrategyThe EdgePro - BTC Swing Strategy is a meticulously designed trading approach that combines two distinct components: the Early Bird system and the Main system. This strategy is specifically tailored for Bitcoin (BTC) swing trading and aims to provide both timely entry signals and accurate trend capturing, thereby maximizing profit potential while minimizing losses.
The Early Bird system (marked by the smaller triangles), as its name suggests, focuses on identifying early long signals. It utilizes various systems and strategies to detect potential shifts in BTC price direction before they become evident to the broader market. By seeking out these early signals, the Early Bird system aims to gain an advantageous position by entering trades at or near the beginning of a bullish trend.
The Main system (marked by the larger triangles), on the other hand, is designed to have a high hit rate and effectively capture trends without falling victim to choppy or volatile market conditions. Again it employs a combination of complex trend-following indicators and strategies to confirm a sustainable trend in BTC price movement. This ensures that the strategy avoids false signals and filters out noise, allowing it to maintain a robust and reliable trading approach.
Visit edgeprosignals.com for more information, including full performance history of the EdgePro Large Cap Portfolio and Full Access to all our Indicators & Strategies.
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PAYX Paychex Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of PAYX Paychex prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 115usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $3.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
GBPUSD LONG TRADE AFTER NEWSOn GBPUSD, we have a bullish setup based on today's Sterling data. I already have a short trade on this pair following another strategy, in which I'm exposed by 0.5%. In this long position, I'm exposed by 1% as it follows an additional strategy. However, I will close or cut the losses on this position if the entry candle, or the 10 candle, closes below the support level of 1.2616. Otherwise, I will keep it open and we will see how the situation evolves this afternoon with the US data. It would be fantastic if you shared your opinion and left a like to support our work. Happy trading to everyone! Danicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
CADCHF POI OF REACTION FOR A LONG 0.6870On CAD/CHF, we have a price at 0.6870 where, according to my analysis, it appears to be consolidating before a potential upward move. I believe it could be a long position since we have a price with favorable volumes and a price that has retraced within our reaction point. The target is a simple 1:3 risk-reward ratio, as we have an equal amount of selling volumes at the supply zone around 0.6815 where the price could react. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USD/CAD Prediction on 28.06.2023The USD/CAD pair has recently been experiencing an upward trend, a shift that market analysts and traders are closely monitoring. This forex pair's current rise, which represents the value of the US dollar (USD) against the Canadian dollar (CAD), is being influenced by a myriad of factors.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, it's important to consider the interplay between the economies of the two countries involved. The United States and Canada, as two of the world's major economies, have intricate economic ties, which often directly influence the USD/CAD exchange rate.
One key factor could be the relative strength of the US economy. Recent data shows an uptick in several leading indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment rate, and inflation. This has led to expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, a move that often bolsters the USD's value.
On the other side of the pair, the CAD's performance is heavily influenced by the price of commodities, notably oil. If oil prices are experiencing a downturn or are relatively stable while the US economy strengthens, it could explain the uptick in the USD/CAD rate.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions and changes in global risk sentiment can also affect the pair. When there's global economic uncertainty, investors tend to flock towards "safe-haven" currencies such as the USD, driving up its value against pairs like the CAD.
Lastly, market speculation plays a role too. If traders believe that these trends will continue, they may buy into the USD/CAD pair, thereby driving the price up even further.
It's essential for traders and investors to stay updated with both US and Canadian economic data, geopolitical events, and other relevant news that could impact the pair's future movements. A thorough analysis of these elements would provide a better understanding of whether this upward trend in the USD/CAD rate is a temporary phenomenon or the beginning of a longer-term shift.
Unlocking the Potential of Option Trading: A Comprehensive GuideIntroduction:
💥 In the world of finance, option trading has gained significant popularity among investors and traders alike. It offers a unique and versatile set of investment strategies that can be employed to capitalize on market movements, hedge against risks, and enhance overall portfolio performance. Whether you are a seasoned investor or just starting, understanding the fundamentals of option trading can provide you with valuable tools to navigate the financial markets effectively. In this article, we will delve into the basics of option trading, explore its benefits and risks, and provide insights into some popular option strategies.
👀 What are Options?
💥 Options are derivative financial instruments that grant the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specified time period. The underlying asset can be stocks, commodities, indices, or even currencies. The predetermined price is known as the strike price, and the specified time period is the expiration date of the option.
👀 Call Options vs. Put Options
💥 There are two types of options: call options and put options. A call option gives the holder the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price before the expiration date. On the other hand, a put option provides the holder with the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price before expiration.
👀 Benefits of Option Trading
💥 Flexibility: Options provide investors with a flexible range of strategies to suit their investment goals and risk appetite. They can be used to generate income, hedge against potential losses, or speculate on market movements.
💥 Leverage: Option trading allows investors to control a larger position of an underlying asset with a smaller upfront investment, known as the premium. This potential leverage can amplify returns if the market moves in the anticipated direction.
💥 Risk Management: By using options, investors can manage and limit their risk exposure. Protective put options, for example, can act as insurance against potential price declines in a stock, while covered call options can generate income and provide a cushion against potential losses.
💥 Diversification: Options can be used as part of a diversified investment strategy to mitigate risk and enhance portfolio performance. By incorporating options with different underlying assets and expiration dates, investors can reduce reliance on a single investment and spread their risk across multiple positions.
👀 Risks of Option Trading
💥 Limited Time Horizon: Options have expiration dates, and if the underlying asset doesn't move in the anticipated direction within the given time frame, the option may expire worthless, resulting in a loss of the premium paid.
💥 Complexities: Option trading involves various strategies and concepts that may seem complex to beginners. It is essential to thoroughly understand the mechanics and risks associated with each strategy before implementation.
💥 Volatility and Market Uncertainty: Options are sensitive to changes in market volatility. Increased volatility can lead to higher option premiums, but it can also increase the risk of unexpected price movements, potentially resulting in losses.
👀 Popular Option Trading Strategies
💥 Covered Call: This strategy involves selling call options on an underlying asset that the investor already owns. It generates income (the premium received) while limiting the potential upside if the asset's price rises above the strike price.
💥 Protective Put: This strategy involves buying put options on an underlying asset to protect against potential downside risk. If the asset's price declines, the put option will offset some or all of the losses.
💥 Long Straddle: This strategy involves buying both a call option and a put option with the same strike price and expiration date. It profits from significant price movements in either direction, regardless of the underlying asset's actual price movement.
💥 Iron Condor: This strategy combines a bear call spread and a bull put spread. It aims to benefit from a range-bound market, where the underlying asset's price remains relatively stable
EURUSD BUY SIGNAL - COVALIDATION ZONE 1.09EURUSD presents a bullish scenario after two bearish trading days between Thursday and Friday. The price, after forming a demand zone, created a value gap that the price confirmed around 5 AM, validating the zone. Entry at 1.0809 with a target of 1.0956, but a further target of 1.10 could also be considered. We would be glad if you could share your opinion. Greetings and happy trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Bearish Gold WEEK ?Gold took a hit this week as the dollar rebounded after the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point — twice more than forecast — saying it needed to act against "significant" indicators that British inflation would take longer to fall. U.K.’s main interest rate is now at 5%, the highest since 2008 after the largest rate increase since February. For me the gold metal will go a little bit down . Wha do you think traders , Am I right ?
KMX CarMax Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of KMX CarMax prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 78usd strike price in the Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-6-30,
for a premium of approximately $3.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
the Bull Put SpreadIn the world of options trading, there are numerous strategies available to help investors mitigate risk and maximize profit potential. One of my favorite strategies is the bull put spread which I use when I have a bullish outlook on a particular stock or market.
What is a Bull Put Spread?
A bull put spread is a defined-risk, vertical options spread strategy that involves the simultaneous purchase and sale of put options on the same underlying asset with different strike prices. It is typically employed when an investor anticipates a moderate upward movement in the price of the underlying security.
How Does It Work?
To initiate a bull put spread, an investor sells a put option with a higher strike price and simultaneously purchases a put option with a lower strike price. Both options have the same expiration date. The premium received from selling the higher strike put option helps offset the premium paid for buying the lower strike put option. As a result, the strategy is implemented at a net credit, reducing the upfront cost and risk.
Profit Potential:
The bull put spread strategy profits from two scenarios. First, if the price of the underlying security remains above the higher strike price until expiration, both options expire worthless, and you keep the initial net credit received. Second, if the price of the underlying security experiences a moderate increase, the spread narrows in value, allowing you to buy back the short put option at a lower price, realizing a profit.
Risk and Loss Potential:
While the bull put spread strategy offers limited risk compared to naked put selling, it is not without its downsides. If the price of the underlying security falls below the lower strike price, both options may end up in-the-money at expiration. In such a case, the investor incurs a maximum loss equal to the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit received. It is crucial to assess the risk-reward ratio and have a clear exit plan in place to manage potential losses.
Picking your Spot
When you decide you want to try this strategy, the question becomes what stock should I choose? Choose an asset that has sufficient liquidity and options volume. Stocks or ETFs that are actively traded and have a large market capitalization tend to meet these criteria. I have done well with several tech stocks in the past.
Strike Prices: For a bull put spread, you will sell a put option with a higher strike price and buy a put option with a lower strike price. The difference between the two strike prices (less the credit received) will define the spread's width (and the $$ you are risking). Consider strike prices that are below the asset's current price but still provide a comfortable buffer. The specific strike prices will depend on your risk tolerance and profit target.
Implied volatility: Implied volatility reflects the market's expectations of future price fluctuations. Higher implied volatility generally leads to higher options premiums, making it more attractive for option sellers. However, excessively high implied volatility might also indicate heightened risk or uncertainty. Evaluate the implied volatility levels of the options you plan to trade and assess whether they are within a reasonable range.
Time to expiration: The time remaining until options expiration can impact the premium you receive and the potential risks. Shorter time frames generally result in lower premiums but also limit the trade's duration and potential profits. Longer time frames provide more room for the underlying asset's price to move favorably but come with increased exposure to adverse market events. Consider your desired trade duration and how it aligns with your outlook on the underlying asset.
Benefits of a Bull Put Spread
Limited risk: Unlike naked put selling, the maximum loss potential is known upfront, allowing for better risk management.
Lower capital requirement: The strategy is implemented at a net credit, reducing the upfront capital required to initiate the trade.
Profit potential in multiple scenarios: The bull put spread can generate a profit if the underlying security remains above the higher strike price or experiences a moderate increase.
Considerations and Trade-offs
Time decay: The passage of time erodes the value of options, benefiting the strategy as long as the underlying security remains above the higher strike price.
Market volatility: Higher levels of volatility can increase option premiums, potentially improving the initial net credit received.
Margin requirements: Some brokers may require a margin account to implement this strategy, as it involves short-selling options.
Risk Management
Risk is a very personal thing, so you will need to determine the maximum loss you are willing to accept for the trade, and then set appropriate stop-loss orders or exit strategies. Consider the potential loss if the underlying asset's price falls below the lower strike price of the spread. If you're new to options trading or want to validate your strategy, consider paper trading or backtesting your bull put spread using historical data. This can help you assess the performance and risk of your strategy under various market conditions before committing real capital.
The bull put spread strategy can be an effective tool for traders who hold a bullish view on a particular stock or market. By combining the sale and purchase of put options, investors can define their risk, reduce capital requirements, and profit in multiple market scenarios. However, it is crucial to thoroughly understand the mechanics, potential risks, and market conditions before implementing this strategy. As with any investment strategy, proper research, risk management, and ongoing monitoring are key to successful implementation.