EURUSD BUY SIGNAL - COVALIDATION ZONE 1.09EURUSD presents a bullish scenario after two bearish trading days between Thursday and Friday. The price, after forming a demand zone, created a value gap that the price confirmed around 5 AM, validating the zone. Entry at 1.0809 with a target of 1.0956, but a further target of 1.10 could also be considered. We would be glad if you could share your opinion. Greetings and happy trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Strategy!
Bearish Gold WEEK ?Gold took a hit this week as the dollar rebounded after the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point — twice more than forecast — saying it needed to act against "significant" indicators that British inflation would take longer to fall. U.K.’s main interest rate is now at 5%, the highest since 2008 after the largest rate increase since February. For me the gold metal will go a little bit down . Wha do you think traders , Am I right ?
KMX CarMax Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of KMX CarMax prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 78usd strike price in the Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-6-30,
for a premium of approximately $3.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
the Bull Put SpreadIn the world of options trading, there are numerous strategies available to help investors mitigate risk and maximize profit potential. One of my favorite strategies is the bull put spread which I use when I have a bullish outlook on a particular stock or market.
What is a Bull Put Spread?
A bull put spread is a defined-risk, vertical options spread strategy that involves the simultaneous purchase and sale of put options on the same underlying asset with different strike prices. It is typically employed when an investor anticipates a moderate upward movement in the price of the underlying security.
How Does It Work?
To initiate a bull put spread, an investor sells a put option with a higher strike price and simultaneously purchases a put option with a lower strike price. Both options have the same expiration date. The premium received from selling the higher strike put option helps offset the premium paid for buying the lower strike put option. As a result, the strategy is implemented at a net credit, reducing the upfront cost and risk.
Profit Potential:
The bull put spread strategy profits from two scenarios. First, if the price of the underlying security remains above the higher strike price until expiration, both options expire worthless, and you keep the initial net credit received. Second, if the price of the underlying security experiences a moderate increase, the spread narrows in value, allowing you to buy back the short put option at a lower price, realizing a profit.
Risk and Loss Potential:
While the bull put spread strategy offers limited risk compared to naked put selling, it is not without its downsides. If the price of the underlying security falls below the lower strike price, both options may end up in-the-money at expiration. In such a case, the investor incurs a maximum loss equal to the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit received. It is crucial to assess the risk-reward ratio and have a clear exit plan in place to manage potential losses.
Picking your Spot
When you decide you want to try this strategy, the question becomes what stock should I choose? Choose an asset that has sufficient liquidity and options volume. Stocks or ETFs that are actively traded and have a large market capitalization tend to meet these criteria. I have done well with several tech stocks in the past.
Strike Prices: For a bull put spread, you will sell a put option with a higher strike price and buy a put option with a lower strike price. The difference between the two strike prices (less the credit received) will define the spread's width (and the $$ you are risking). Consider strike prices that are below the asset's current price but still provide a comfortable buffer. The specific strike prices will depend on your risk tolerance and profit target.
Implied volatility: Implied volatility reflects the market's expectations of future price fluctuations. Higher implied volatility generally leads to higher options premiums, making it more attractive for option sellers. However, excessively high implied volatility might also indicate heightened risk or uncertainty. Evaluate the implied volatility levels of the options you plan to trade and assess whether they are within a reasonable range.
Time to expiration: The time remaining until options expiration can impact the premium you receive and the potential risks. Shorter time frames generally result in lower premiums but also limit the trade's duration and potential profits. Longer time frames provide more room for the underlying asset's price to move favorably but come with increased exposure to adverse market events. Consider your desired trade duration and how it aligns with your outlook on the underlying asset.
Benefits of a Bull Put Spread
Limited risk: Unlike naked put selling, the maximum loss potential is known upfront, allowing for better risk management.
Lower capital requirement: The strategy is implemented at a net credit, reducing the upfront capital required to initiate the trade.
Profit potential in multiple scenarios: The bull put spread can generate a profit if the underlying security remains above the higher strike price or experiences a moderate increase.
Considerations and Trade-offs
Time decay: The passage of time erodes the value of options, benefiting the strategy as long as the underlying security remains above the higher strike price.
Market volatility: Higher levels of volatility can increase option premiums, potentially improving the initial net credit received.
Margin requirements: Some brokers may require a margin account to implement this strategy, as it involves short-selling options.
Risk Management
Risk is a very personal thing, so you will need to determine the maximum loss you are willing to accept for the trade, and then set appropriate stop-loss orders or exit strategies. Consider the potential loss if the underlying asset's price falls below the lower strike price of the spread. If you're new to options trading or want to validate your strategy, consider paper trading or backtesting your bull put spread using historical data. This can help you assess the performance and risk of your strategy under various market conditions before committing real capital.
The bull put spread strategy can be an effective tool for traders who hold a bullish view on a particular stock or market. By combining the sale and purchase of put options, investors can define their risk, reduce capital requirements, and profit in multiple market scenarios. However, it is crucial to thoroughly understand the mechanics, potential risks, and market conditions before implementing this strategy. As with any investment strategy, proper research, risk management, and ongoing monitoring are key to successful implementation.
XAUUSD IS DOING STEP BY STEP BEFORE THE SHORT XAUUSD is showing a bearish trendline that has pushed the price down to the 1925 area. The market has left a significant amount of liquidity/inefficiency between 1930 and 1960, which the price is likely to revisit in the coming days before bouncing back towards the 1960 zone. In that area, we have a supply zone, but there may be a false breakout of the trendline before the price descends to the 1930 zone. This area represents a demand zone and will be our last consolidation zone before initiating a short position with a target of 1880. We would appreciate it if you could share your analysis. Regards, Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
GBPCAD SHORT SIGNAL - SETUP H1 BEFORE USOn GBPCAD, we have a price at around 1.6885. My entry target is expected in the 1.6894 zone, where we have a supply zone generated within another supply zone. Following the Forex48 strategy, we have our bearish setup. The rebound target in that area is set at 1.6770 with a risk-reward ratio of 1:2. If you'd like, please share your opinion. We would be grateful. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
CHFJPY SHORT SIGNAL H1 - NEWS WILL BE STRONG On CHFJPY, we have a bearish setup with a price that has reached the 158.40 zone within a weekly supply zone. In this area, it has created a confirmed short setup supported by strong volumes. The short trade objective is around 156.90, where we have high volumes within a demand zone. The yen, which has been weak in recent weeks, could rebound due to upcoming macroeconomic data on Wednesday and Friday. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Orex48 Trading Academy. If you'd like, please leave a like and share your opinion. We would be grateful.
AUDUSD SHORT TRADE SETUP H1 The AUD/USD pair is showing a strong recovery after a minor correction near 0.6840 during the European session. Investors eagerly await the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes and the interest rate decision by the People's Bank of China (PBoC).
Meanwhile, caution prevails as S&P500 futures recorded losses in Asia due to an extended weekend in the United States. Nevertheless, overall market sentiment remains positive, with a widespread belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates more than once by year-end.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is under pressure, dropping to around 102.30, reflecting growing investor optimism about the US economic outlook. Encouragingly, the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for June surpassed expectations, reaching 63.9 compared to the estimated 60.0 and the previous release of 59.2.
The prevailing market optimism is fueled by declining gasoline prices, which have contributed to a softening of both producer and consumer inflation. Consequently, market participants are confident that the Fed will proceed cautiously with interest rate adjustments, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell's confirmation of two small rate hikes.
All eyes are now on the upcoming release of the RBA minutes scheduled for Tuesday, as they will provide valuable insights into RBA Governor Philip Lowe's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Additionally, guidance on future interest rate adjustments will be of utmost importance to investors.
Equally significant is the PBoC's interest rate decision, which is expected to take a dovish stance as the Chinese economy actively stimulates economic activities. It's worth noting that China is Australia's largest trading partner, and an economic recovery in China would strengthen the Australian Dollar.
Stay tuned for the latest developments in this dynamic trading landscape as the AUD/USD pair sets the stage for potential opportunities.
Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
📊 Exploring Basic Options StrategiesOptions are contracts that grant buyers the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a predetermined price in the future. Buyers pay a premium for this privilege. If market conditions are unfavorable, option holders can let the option expire without exercising it, limiting potential losses to the premium paid. Options are categorized as "call" or "put" contracts, allowing buyers to purchase or sell the underlying asset at a specified price. Beginner investors can employ various strategies using calls or puts to manage risk, including directional bets and hedging techniques.
🔹 Buying Calls (Long Calls)
Trading options offers advantages for those who want to make a directional bet in the market. It allows traders to buy call options, which require less capital than purchasing the underlying asset, and limits losses to the premium paid if the price goes down. This strategy is suitable for traders who are confident about a specific stock, ETF, or index fund and want to manage risk. Additionally, options provide leverage, enabling traders to amplify potential gains by using smaller amounts of capital compared to trading the underlying asset directly. For example, instead of investing $10,000 to buy 100 shares of a $100 stock, traders can spend $2,000 on a call contract with a strike price 10% higher than the current market price.
🔹 Buying Puts (Long Puts)
Put options provide the holder with the right to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price before the contract expires. This strategy is favored by traders who hold a bearish view on a specific stock, ETF, or index but want to limit their risk compared to short-selling. It also allows traders to utilize leverage to capitalize on declining prices. Unlike call options that benefit from price increases, put options increase in value as the underlying asset's price decreases. While short-selling also profits from price declines, the risk is unlimited as prices can theoretically rise infinitely. In contrast, if the underlying asset's price exceeds the strike price of a put option, the option simply expires without value.
🔹 Covered Calls
A covered call strategy involves selling a call option on an existing long position in the underlying asset. This approach is different from simply buying a call or put option. Traders who use covered calls expect little or no change in the underlying asset's price and want to collect the option premium as income. They are willing to limit the upside potential of their position in exchange for some downside protection.
🔹 Risk/Reward
A long straddle strategy involves purchasing both a call option and a put option simultaneously. While the cost of a long straddle is higher than buying either a call or put option alone, the maximum potential loss is limited to the amount paid for the straddle. On the other hand, the potential reward is theoretically unlimited on the upside. However, the downside is capped at the strike price. For example, if you own a $20 straddle and the stock price drops to zero, the maximum profit you can make is $20.
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NAS100 SHORT RESISTANCEDear fellow aliens.
Short position on NAS100 RESISTANCE TOUCH
Wait for breakout trendline and retest of broken BoS wick candle. 4hr
TP 1day chart recent highest swing as seen support zone.
RSI MULTIPLE 1D OVERBOUGHT AREAS.
MARKET SENTIMENT BULLISH. Do opposite
Inflation rates probably will decrease so expect xauusd to go bullish. Everyone expects gold to drop, do opposite eliminate retail amateur traders.
comment for 4000 pips scalping strategy for nas100.
mentoring is free . dedication and full time concetration is required.
of course wait NY market open session for best entry.
looking into expand my business for interest only 1000% dedication no guru alike indians fokes or similair.
comment for interest and contact details will be shared.
Nifty Bank - June end ExpiryNifty Bank is bullish currently. The green lines will act as resistance in the upper side and yellow lines will act as support in the lower end. I expect Nifty Bank will not breach the blue line during this month expiry. HDFC bank merger news may act as a bullish catalyst and international economic news may act as an bearish catalyst.
This is only for educational purpose.
Teslas ninja bro - chopping before move to $13.50Tesla, Lucent, Rivian, Nio not too many new names entering the scene in the last year... Nio will boost the worst has been put in. IMO 6 month call options OTM $13 plus should be pretty safe. Lots of potential direct or indirect headline catalysts here through EV, AI, and Tesla tailwinds.
GBPUSD DOUBLE SETUP BEFORE ECB RATESIn April, UK GDP grew by 0.2% m/m, recovering from the previous month's decline of -0.3% m/m. The rebound was driven by the services sector, with services expanding by 0.3% m/m and contributing 0.26 percentage points to overall GDP growth. The wholesale and retail sector, as well as the information and communication sector, made significant contributions. However, manufacturing and the health sector experienced declines. Manufacturing contracted by 0.3% m/m, with the pharmaceuticals sector playing a major role. The construction sector also declined by 0.6% m/m due to a slowdown in housing activity. Overall, UK GDP growth remains relatively stagnant, but PMI surveys indicate increased activity in April and May, especially in services, projecting a 0.3%-0.4% q/q growth rate for Q2. However, the extra bank holiday in May is expected to result in a significant contraction in GDP, potentially impacting the entire second quarter, although the effect on Bank of England policy is expected to be minimal.
Nicola, CEO Forex48 Trading Academy
AUDUSD THE BIG SHORT IS READYThe AUD/USD pair is consolidating near the critical resistance level of 0.6800, following a recent climb to a one-month high. Mixed economic data and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's statement have led to a need for consolidation or a possible correction. The Australian dollar received support from the People's Bank of China's decision to ease short-term policy rates. In the US, consumer inflation eased, solidifying expectations of a Fed pause. The pair's near-term direction hinges on the performance of the US dollar and overall risk sentiment. Technical indicators suggest the potential for a correction, although a daily close above 0.6800 would indicate further upside potential. Key support levels to monitor are at 0.6745, 0.6710, and 0.6680, while resistance levels can be found at 0.6780, 0.6820, and 0.6845. Traders should conduct thorough analysis before making any trading decisions.
Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
EURUSD SHORT BEFORE ECB RATESEUR/USD pair retreated below 1.0800 during the American session, facing resistance at the 1.0820 level and the 100-day SMA at 1.0805. The short-term bullish bias remains, but technical indicators offer mixed signals. The pair's retreat from recent highs suggests potential downside, with support levels at 1.0760 and 1.0740. However, the overall bias remains bullish, despite volatility expected due to the upcoming FOMC meeting and ECB meeting.
In Germany, May's inflation data confirmed a decrease from April, while the ZEW survey showed unexpected improvement. Germany's Wholesale Price Index and Eurozone Industrial Production data will be released, with expectations for a 25 basis point hike by the ECB.
The US CPI for May showed a lower-than-expected increase, indicating slowing inflation. This may influence the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle decisions. The Greenback initially tumbled after the report but later recovered. The direction of the EUR/USD pair will depend on the US Dollar's performance ahead of the FOMC statement.
Overall, caution is advised in light of market volatility and the impact of central bank meetings. Traders should closely monitor economic data and the guidance provided by central banks to make informed investment decisions.
Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
USDJPY LONG & SHORT SETUP - US NEWSDuring the European session, the US/JPY pair remains stagnant, trading within a limited range just below the significant resistance level of 140.00. The market is characterized by volatile fluctuations as investors adopt a cautious approach in anticipation of the upcoming release of US inflation data.
In London, S&P500 futures have gained as investors hope the Fed will delay interest rate hikes and weaken the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index reached a two-week low at 103.21 due to expectations of a neutral interest rate policy and softening US inflation. Analysts predict May's CPI will remain unchanged, but core inflation will stay strong. The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its interest rate policy, aiming for inflation above 2%.
Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
GBPUSD - FIRST STEP IS SHORT GBP/USD capitalized on the overall weakness of the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, reaching its highest level in a month above 1.2590. However, the pair is likely to encounter resistance at 1.2600, and there is a possibility of a downward correction before the next upward movement.
The optimistic market sentiment at the start of the week has prevented the safe-haven USD from maintaining its strength against its main rivals. This has provided support for GBP/USD to remain in positive territory. In the European session, the UK's FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.3%, while US stock index futures recorded gains ranging from 0.1% to 0.3%.
Earlier in the day, the Pound Sterling received a boost from hawkish comments made by Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel. In an article published in The Scotsman newspaper, Haskel expressed the importance of addressing the risks of inflation momentum and did not rule out the possibility of further interest rate hikes.
On Tuesday, the UK's Office for National Statistics is set to release labor market data. It is expected that annual wage inflation, as measured by Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, will rise to 6.9% in April from 6.7% in March. Currently, the markets have fully priced in a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the Bank of England at the upcoming policy meeting on June 22. Therefore, if wage inflation turns out to be lower than anticipated, it may pose challenges for Pound Sterling to continue outperforming its competitors. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected reading could have a short-lived positive impact on the currency.
The release of May inflation data from the US and a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee hearing on Tuesday could also lead to significant fluctuations in the GBP/USD pair.
Nicola CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
EURAUD BULLISH SETUP IS READYOn EURAUD, we notice a price consolidating around 1.592 within a demand zone. The price is consolidating after breaking a bearish trendline. In this area, many buying orders are accumulating, suggesting a potential increase in the stock price up to 1.62, where we have an interesting supply zone. I don't exclude a rise towards the 1.64 area.
Share your perspective.
Happy trading to all.
Nicola CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
XAUUSD SHORT BEFORE FED RATESOn gold, we have a price that, after reaching the 1965 zone within a supply zone, reversed its course due to the significant volume present in the area. Now, the price has started to decline, and a target is expected around the 1946 zone, where there is a high concentration of orders and a demand zone at the 1943 level. Therefore, currently, we have a profitable short trade.
Share your perspective.
Wishing everyone successful trading, Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
EURUSD SHORT BEFORE FED RATES On EURUSD, we have a bearish setup with the price, after reaching the 1.079 area in a supply zone, starting to retrace towards a target point in anticipation of the upcoming week, which includes the Fed and ECB rate hikes, along with numerous macroeconomic data. Please share your expectations in the comments. Happy trading to everyone. Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Riding the Market Tides with the Initial Balance Ahoy, fellow traders! So you’re itching to become the Captain Jack Sparrow of trading, eh? Before you swashbuckle through the stock market, you need a treasure map. Enter the Initial Balance trading strategy! This nifty tool can be the compass guiding you through stormy market seas. But hold your horses, we’re not talking about a literal balance here; it's more like the market’s opening mood ring. Hang tight as we steer you through the nuts and bolts of this golden strategy.
Setting Sail: What’s the Initial Balance Trading Strategy?
The Initial Balance trading strategy is like that morning coffee - it sets the tone for the day. Here's how it works: You observe the high and low of the first hour of trading. This range, my friends, is the Initial Balance. It’s a harbinger of how the market may swing for the rest of the day. The million-dollar question is, how do you use this to fill your coffers?
Anchors Aweigh: Establishing the Initial Balance
First things first, you need to get a grip on that Initial Balance. Let’s break it down step by step:
Watch the market like a hawk from the opening bell.
Jot down the highest and lowest points during the first hour.
Plot them on your chart and voila! That's your Initial Balance.
Sailing Through Uncharted Waters: Price Action
When the price takes a leap of faith outside this range, that's when the magic happens. It might indicate a trend in making. Hold on to your hats, because this is where you can swoop in and take a position.
The North Star: Using Indicators
Now, I wouldn’t bet my last doubloon solely on the Initial Balance. It’s a guide, not gospel. Bring in some allies like volume indicators and moving averages to keep you from sailing off the edge of the world.
Why Is the Initial Balance Trading Strategy the X Marks the Spot?
Oh, the Initial Balance trading strategy has a special place in traders' hearts for a reason. Here’s what makes it the go-to guide for many:
First Mover Advantage: Get a jump on the crowd. Being in the know from the get-go can be your secret weapon.
Flexibility: This ain't a one-trick pony. Use it for day trading or merge it with other indicators to build a rock-solid strategy.
Early Warning System: When the seas are rough, it’s best to stay ashore. The Initial Balance can help you gauge the market’s mood and steer clear if needed.
Weathering the Storms: Potential Pitfalls
Hold up! No treasure hunt is complete without booby traps. So, what could possibly go wrong?
False Breakouts: Sometimes the market’s just messing with you. The price could break out of the Initial Balance, only to do an about-face.
Overnight News: A sneaky villain. News from across the seven seas can throw a monkey wrench in the works, and your Initial Balance may end up as useful as a chocolate teapot.
FAQs
1. Can I use the Initial Balance trading strategy for any market?
Aye, matey! Whether stocks, forex, or commodities, it’s all fair game.
2. What time frame should I use to establish the Initial Balance?
Traditionally, it’s the first hour. But hey, if you like living on the edge, some traders narrow it down to the first 30 minutes.
3. Can the Initial Balance Trading Strategy be my only strategy?
Well, putting all your eggs in one basket might leave you with egg on your face. It's good to mix and match with other strategies.
Concluding Our Voyage: All Hands on Deck!
To wrap this shindig up, the Initial Balance trading strategy can be the wind in your sails. But don’t go sailing blindfolded; be sure to have some extra navigational tools on hand. It’s a pirate’s life for you, but remember, even the savviest pirates have a trusty crew and a sturdy ship. So weigh anchor, and let the Initial Balance be your first mate on this high-seas adventure. Happy trading!