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My today idea of Gold's possible moves 27042023A mixed trading session dominated gold prices yesterday after it achieved the first target that needed to be touched, located at the price of 1978, recording its lowest price of 1976, to start an upward rebound due to touching the support represented in the target. Technically, and despite the stability of trading above the 1992 resistance level, we still tend in our trading to be negative, relying on the clear negative signs on the stochastic indicator, in addition to the regular trading within a technical formation that indicates the possibility of continuing the corrective decline. Therefore, the bearish scenario remains valid and effective, and that is achieved by breaking 1992, targeting 1978 as the first target, and then 1964 as the next station, considering that the official target for the bearish correction is located around 1952. Activating the proposed scenario requires the stability of daily trading below 2006, and its penetration can enhance the chances of gold prices rising again with the goal of 2018.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by nasirdxb
Price/Earnings: amazing interpretation #2In my previous post , we started to analyze the most popular financial ratio in the world – Price / Earnings or P/E (particularly one of the options for interpreting it). I said that P/E can be defined as the amount of money that must be paid once in order to receive 1 monetary unit of diluted net income per year. For American companies, it will be in US dollars, for Indian companies it will be in rupees, etc. In this post, I would like to analyze another interpretation of this financial ratio, which will allow you to look at P/E differently. To do this, let's look at the formula for calculating P/E again: P/E = Capitalization / Diluted earnings Now let's add some refinements to the formula: P/E = Current capitalization / Diluted earnings for the last year (*) (*) In my case, by year I mean the last 12 months. Next, let's see what the Current capitalization and Diluted earnings for the last year are expressed in, for example, in an American company: - Current capitalization is in $; - Diluted earnings for the last year are in $/year. As a result, we can write the following formula: P/E = Current capitalization / Diluted earnings for the last year = $ / $ / year = N years (*) (*) According to the basic rules of math, $ will be reduced by $, and we will be left with only the number of years. It's very unusual, isn't it? It turns out that P/E can also be the number of years! Yes, indeed, we can say that P/E is the number of years that a shareholder (investor) will need to wait in order to recoup their investments at the current price from the earnings flow, provided that the level of profit does not change . Of course, the condition of an unchangeable level of profit is very unrealistic. It is rare to find a company that shows the same profit from year to year. Nevertheless, we have nothing more real than the current capitalization of the company and its latest profit. Everything else is just predictions and probable estimates. It is also important to understand that during the purchase of shares, the investor fixates one of the P/E components - the price (P). Therefore, they only need to keep an eye on the earnings (E) and calculate their own P/E without paying attention to the current capitalization. If the level of earnings increases since the purchase of shares, the investor's personal P/E will decrease, and, consequently, the number of years to wait for recoupment. Another thing is when the earnings level, on the contrary, decreases – then an investor will face an increase in their P/E level and, consequently, an increase in the payback period of their own investments. In this case, of course, you have to think about the prospects of such an investment. You can also argue that not all 100% of earnings are spent paying dividends, and therefore you can’t use the level of earnings to calculate the payback period of an investment. Yes, indeed: it is rare for a company to give all of its earnings to dividends. However, the lack of a proper dividend level is not a reason to change anything in the formula or this interpretation at all, because retained earnings are the main fundamental driver of a company's capitalization growth. And whatever the investor misses out on in terms of dividends, they can get it in the form of an increase in the value of the shares they bought. Now, let's discuss how to interpret the obtained P/E value. Intuitively, the lower it is, the better. For example, if an investor bought shares at P/E = 100, it means that they will have to wait 100 years for their investment to pay off. That seems like a risky investment, doesn't it? Of course, one can hope for future earnings growth and, consequently, for a decrease in their personal P/E value. But what if it doesn’t happen? Let me give you an example. For instance, you have bought a country house, and so now you have to get to work via country roads. You have an inexpensive off-road vehicle to do this task. It does its job well and takes you to work via a road that has nothing but potholes. Thus, you get the necessary positive effect this inexpensive thing provides. However, later you learn that they will build a high-speed highway in place of the rural road. And that is exactly what you have dreamed of! After hearing the news, you buy a Ferrari. Now, you will be able to get to work in 5 minutes instead of 30 minutes (and in such a nice car!) However, you have to leave your new sports car in the yard to wait until the road is built. A month later, the news came out that, due to the structure of the road, the highway would be built in a completely different location. A year later your off-road vehicle breaks down. Oh well, now you have to get into your Ferrari and swerve around the potholes. It is not hard to guess what is going to happen to your expensive car after a while. This way, your high expectations for the future road project turned out to be a disaster for your investment in the expensive car. It works the same way with stock investments. If you only consider the company's future earnings forecast, you run the risk of being left alone with just the forecast instead of the earnings. Thus, P/E can serve as a measure of your risk. The higher the P/E value at the time you buy a stock, the more risk you take. But what is the acceptable level of P/E ? Oddly enough, I think the answer to this question depends on your age. When you are just beginning your journey, life gives you an absolutely priceless resource, known as time. You can try, take risks, make mistakes, and then try again. That's what children do as they explore the world around them. Or when young people try out different jobs to find exactly what they like. You can use your time in the stock market in the same manner - by looking at companies with a P/E that suits your age. The younger you are, the higher P/E level you can afford when selecting companies. Conversely, in my opinion, the older you are, the lower P/E level you can afford. To put it simply, you just don’t have as much time to wait for a return on your investment. So, my point is, the stock market perception of a 20-year-old investor should differ from the perception of a 50-year-old investor. If the former can afford to invest with a high payback period, it may be too risky for the latter. Now let's try to translate this reasoning into a specific algorithm. First, let's see how many companies we are able to find in different P/E ranges. As an example, let's take the companies that are traded on the NYSE (April 2023). As you can see from the table, the larger the P/E range, the more companies we can consider. The investor's task comes down to figuring out what P/E range is relevant to them in their current age. To do this, we need data on life expectancy in different countries. As an example, let's take the World Bank Group's 2020 data for several countries: Japan, India, China, Russia, Germany, Spain, the United States, and Brazil. To understand which range of P/E values to choose, you need to subtract your current age from your life expectancy: Life Expectancy - Your Current Age I recommend focusing on the country where you expect to live most of your life. Thus, for a 25-year-old male from the United States, the difference would be: 74,50 - 25 = 49,50 Which corresponds with a P/E range of 0 to 50. For a 60-year-old woman from Japan, the difference would be: 87,74 - 60 = 27,74 Which corresponds with a P/E range of 0 to 30. For a 70-year-old man from Russia, the difference would be: 66,49 - 70 = -3,51 In the case of a negative difference, the P/E range of 0 to 10 should be used. It doesn’t matter which country's stocks you invest in if you expect to live most of your life in Japan, Russia, or the United States. P/E indicates time, and time flows the same for any company and for you. So, this algorithm will allow you to easily calculate your acceptable range of P/E values. However, I want to caution you against making investment decisions based on this ratio alone. A low P/E value does not guarantee that you are free of risks . For example, sometimes the P/E level can drop significantly due to a decline in P (capitalization) because of extraordinary events, whose impact can only be seen in a future income statement (where we would learn the actual value of E - earnings). Nevertheless, the P/E value is a good indicator of the payback period of your investment, which answers the question: when should you consider buying a company's stock? When the P/E value is in an acceptable range of values for you. But the P/E level doesn’t tell you what company to consider and what price to take. I will tell you about this in the next posts. See you soon!
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by Be_Capy
2
XAUUSD 20/4/23 Outlook. My reasons for being bullishGood evening gold gang! hope you have had a good day and caught the sells with us. Beautiful analysis. Ok on to tomorrows out look .. firstly news, we have unemployment claims tomorrow in NY .. so dont be surprised if gold consolidates the key price point for a while. Speaking of which .. if you look on the daily, we have not closed below that point all week .. just rejection upon rejection. This says to me that we still could go up again .. and the news tomorrow maybe the catalyst required for us to do so .. stay tuned! I have my sell price placed at 1983 with the target at 1973 areas .. nice clean traffic there for price to plunge down should it do so buys above the messy range at 2012 area with a target of 2021. If price were to rocket up with news, then i will update during the day of any new targets we can look for Thats it for tomorrows outlook .. thank you all for the follows and likes on my work. Im happy im being of service. Please like and follow along for more xauusd updates tommyXAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
29
XAUUSD 19/4/23 Outlook .. pls readGood evening gold gang!! hope you have had a good day. The days analysis was good and upside targets met, but no trades taken other than a very small profit. The reason for this is we got a closure above the level but price stalled for a full hour (which was not fun) so i exited the trade as this can mean rejection. Price plummeted down to grab more orders from my major level and then 200 pips to the upside to hit the original target. A small win is better than a break even and ive had a few messages from traders that took the trade and profited .. well done! Onto tonights asian and tomorrows london and NY outlook ... Ok DXY is still trending in a bearish channel, this means we should see some gold upside .. so i have placed my buy orders at above 2012 with the target there at 2021. Look out for the 2015 problem area .. it may be better to wait for it to close above there as its a previous strong zone. sells are down at the 1993 .. that is a very strong level and is well respected .. any closure below there should see strong downside. No major news for us tomorrow so there may not be huge moves .. but we are only looking for 100 pip ranges .. 100 pips is massive by the way!! .. thats just my style. Im not into fortune telling predicting the price of gold in 6 months. have a nice evening wherever you are .. catch you tomorrow for updates on this post. Tommy
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
8
What are Your Biggest Struggles in Trading?Hey everyone! I've been trading for a year now, and while I've had some successes, I've also faced some challenges along the way. I know I'm not alone in this, and I want to hear from you all too! I believe that we can all learn from each other and grow as traders, which is why I'm reaching out to the TradingView community. If you're comfortable, I'd love to hear about your own trading struggles. Whether you're just starting out or a seasoned pro, I think we can all benefit from sharing our experiences. Moreover, we all know how lonely this journey can get, so sharing and learning from other's struggles could improve our mindset and the way we tackle the losses, as well as the success. Personally, I struggle the most with keeping a trading journal organised and use it as a feedback loop, improving my trading strategy. I have tried for a while to keep track of my trades in apple notes, but it gets frustrating when you try to actually learn and discover patterns in your errors. On the other hand, another struggle comes when my emotions take over my strategy, and I have been searching desperately for tools and ways of fighting this urge. Leave a comment of your biggest or most uncommon struggle and let's improve our trading skills by sharing!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by m_maia14
Testing a Youtube MACD StrategyIn previous articles, I’ve tested moving average crossovers and bounces. But I didn’t test this famous (or infamous?) indicator related to them… The MACD. When I saw a video from TradingLab on Youtube called “BEST MACD Strategy,” I was curious to test his approach. What’s a MACD Daddy-o? It stands for Moving Averages Convergence Divergence. It’s meant to help us see momentum in the market. So we take a shorter-duration moving average and pair it up with a longer one. We then graph the difference between the two as its own line. We also plot an MA of the difference, called the “signal” line. When the signal line crosses over the difference line, we might be seeing a shift in direction. The farther the signal line pushes away from the other, the stronger the momentum is in that direction. Note: most charting software, including TradingView, also shows the difference as bars (a histogram). So how are we gonna test this thing? The Trading Truth Test Setup We’re keeping the market and the test period the same as some of the previous tests, for easier comparison. (The TradingLab video just says MACD works in many markets and timeframes, without limiting it to one for testing.) Market: the S&P 500 index (using SPY to trade it, assuming SPY is exactly 1/10th the S&P 500 Index price) Timeframe: Jan 2, 2008 to March 28, 2023 Bar interval: 1 hour Moving averages: Unlike previous tests, where we used simple moving averages, we’re using exponential moving average here to weight recent prices more. We use a 200 exponential moving average for overall trend direction. For the MACD, we’re using the classic 12 bars and 26 bars to see the difference between them. And we’re the normal 9-bar MA of that difference as the signal line. Starting Equity: $ 25,000 Max % of Equity Per Trade: 3% Commissions, fees and taxes. To keep things super simple, we’re assuming these are all zero. Our Test When we get a MACD crossover between the signal line and the difference line, we look to go long. But we only go long if: the last closing price is above the 200 MA, and When an upside MACD crossover (the signal line crossing up through the difference line) happens below its zero line (the lower half of the plotted indicator area). We do the opposite to go short… We short when price closes below the 200 MA and we get a downside MACD crossover above the zero line. Our stop loss is 1 penny past the 200 MA value when entering the trade. And our take-profit price is the difference between the entry price and the 200 MA (on entry) multiplied by 1.5. That’s the suggestion in the TradingLab video. Note: The Youtube video suggests using support and resistance as another filter to avoid choppy markets. But there aren’t clear rules given, so I didn’t do that. The Test Results The test ended at $ 30,401.39, up 21.6% with a 46.9% win rate. The biggest loss from the initial $ 25,000 deposit was $ 270.85, a 1.1% loss. The maximum losing streak was $ 800.22 or 3.0% (from $ 26,908.66). That said, the buy-and-hold return was 173.1%. Quite a reward for sitting on your hands, especially given the tax advantages from long-term capital gains. Note: I did this analysis in a spreadsheet, with exported TradingView data. If you see any errors, please let me know. What Test Tweaks We Could Make We could identify rules on when to stay out of the market. MACD strategies, like many, get chopped up in sideways price action. Some other MACD settings might also be interesting to test. We used only the most common settings here. What would you test? And what else would you like to see tested? Comment below!
SP:SPX
by TradingTruthseeker
2
AEX: Interesting set-up to cover exposure on European Stocks.I bought puts on the AEX to cover my portfolio exposure on long European stocks. I advise you to consider allocating between 2%-3% of your portfolio value to options. Risk management is key to outperforming the market. Entry Level: 760 Stop Loss set at 805. Expiry Date: May 19th 2023 First Take Profit at 740. Second Take Profit at 680. *Important to pay attention to the price action at the level of 740. If it is recovered quickly, it will be bullish. Consider moving the stop loss closer to the breakeven point if that happens. I will leave half of the position to collect possible profits if it gets to 680.
TVC:AEXShort
by GenadiYankov
XAUUSD How to enter on the retest (tutorial)Whats up gold gang! hope you have enjoyed your weekend .. its nearly market open .. so lets get ready. This weeks educational post is talking about the retest .. so what is a retest. When price breaks a banking level .. i normally enter on the break out .. but if i miss that .. you can wait for the retest. This is where price comes back to the level to collect more orders before shooting off in the direction of the current trend. Wait for a wick rejection at the banking level and a bullish candle to follow .. on the hour or 30m is the best .. then you can enter on the break of the previous bullish. Make sure this is at volume time around the opens. As anything .. it sounds simple .. but tricky to get right .. and is a lower probability set up compared to the standard breakout. Hope this was helpful guys .. please leave a like if you did. Ill be back tonight for the open and asian outlook going into tomorrow tommyXAU
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by tommyXAU
Importance of Comparing Automated Trading Strategies to Buy&HoldImportance of Comparing Automated Trading Strategies to Buy&Hold | 04/15/23 Recently, TradingView introduced a new backtesting feature that allows traders to compare their trading strategy to simple "buy and hold" strategies. This has proven to be very useful for our trading team and crypto community, especially when attempting to find the best settings for manual and automated trading scripts, such as our Ninja Signals V4 script, so we wanted to highlight this awesome new feature. In this example, we used TradingView's new 'Compare to Buy & Hold' feature to compare our chosen configuration settings for our Ninja Signals V4 automated trading script and backtesting strategy. As you can see, our chosen settings have performed significnatly better than simple "buy and hold" strategies over the last several years (compare the green strategy profit line to the blue "buy and hold" profit line). This new TradingView feature is very powerful, because it helps traders determine if a trading strategy is more or less profitable than simply buying and holding. Just because a trading strategy produces some profit does not mean that it is worth trading, especially if simple "buy and hold" strategies out-perform your chosen trading settings. The settings used in this chart performed well even the recent bear market. As you can see in the strategy statistics, as "buy and hold" strategies were losing profit, the settings we used for our Ninja Signals V4 trading script were actually gaining profit. This new TradingView tool improves our ability to find good settings for both manual and automated trading strategies, and gives additional confirmation that profitable trading settings are better than simple "buy and hold" strategies. Furthermore, the settings we used in this chart have compounding turned off, meaning each trade is the same order size, without any reinvesting of profits. Even as our trading fund grows from this profitable trading strategy, we continue to simply place orders for the same amount each time, rather than re-investing profits to trade larger and larger amounts (known as "compounding"). If compounding is turned on, profits grow much faster, but that is beyond the scope of this publication. We will publish a separate educational idea in the future about the importance of comparing "compounding" vs "non-compounding" settings when backtesting, but for the purposes of this chart, we simply wanted to share that we were able to achieve significant profits, even in a bear market, and even with no compounding (no reinvesting of profits). In conclusion, the new TradingView "Compare to Buy & Hold" backtesting feature gives traders a powerful new tool to find better settings for their chosen trading strategy, and additional confirmation and confidence that live trading will be successful. We thank the TradingView team for adding this powerful new feature!
Education
by Bitcoin_Ninjas
1
The Case for the Dow Jones Breaking the 30,000 levelThe latest US GDP growth was 2.7% for Q4 2022. Unemployment rate is 3.4% in January 2023. Annual inflation rate is 6.4% in January. Fed Fund Rates is 4.50%-4.75% and climbing. Manufacturing and Industrials are struggling, but not bad. Yearly retail sales minted at 6.4% in January. The Fed Rate Monitor is showing an increase for a 0.25% at a 74.50% probability and for a 0.50% at 25.5% probability. Next month, the US NFP will be released March 10th, along with the unemployment rate; March 14th is the Inflation Rate YoY; March 15th PPI MoM; and finally the FED Interest Rate Decision. This all looks good for the FED to keep raising rates and the question is, "how long can the DJ keep holding on above the 30,000. Yes the inflation data could potentially come out lower, but I am thinking that the FED thinks they have more room to raise rates and if it is true, that they are planning on raising rates a couple more times after the March Rate Decision, might be what is needed to start hammering the Dow Jones. I am thinking the inflation data before the meeting will push the thought of a 0.50% rate hike higher or lower, depending on what the printing looks like. I give it to the DJ, it is highly resistant and is managing to stay above the 30,000. But it is only a matter of time until it breaks lower.
FOREXCOM:US30Long
by DollarSaenz