Strategy!
XAUUSD 20/4/23 Outlook. My reasons for being bullishGood evening gold gang! hope you have had a good day and caught the sells with us. Beautiful analysis.
Ok on to tomorrows out look .. firstly news, we have unemployment claims tomorrow in NY .. so dont be surprised if gold consolidates the key price point for a while. Speaking of which .. if you look on the daily, we have not closed below that point all week .. just rejection upon rejection. This says to me that we still could go up again .. and the news tomorrow maybe the catalyst required for us to do so .. stay tuned!
I have my sell price placed at 1983 with the target at 1973 areas .. nice clean traffic there for price to plunge down should it do so
buys above the messy range at 2012 area with a target of 2021. If price were to rocket up with news, then i will update during the day of any new targets we can look for
Thats it for tomorrows outlook .. thank you all for the follows and likes on my work. Im happy im being of service.
Please like and follow along for more xauusd updates
tommyXAU
ABT Abbott Laboratories Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of ABT Abbott Laboratories prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing
Calls with a 105usd strike price and an expiration date of 2023-5-19, for a premium of approximately $2.48.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
XAUUSD 19/4/23 Outlook .. pls readGood evening gold gang!! hope you have had a good day.
The days analysis was good and upside targets met, but no trades taken other than a very small profit. The reason for this is we got a closure above the level but price stalled for a full hour (which was not fun) so i exited the trade as this can mean rejection. Price plummeted down to grab more orders from my major level and then 200 pips to the upside to hit the original target. A small win is better than a break even and ive had a few messages from traders that took the trade and profited .. well done!
Onto tonights asian and tomorrows london and NY outlook ... Ok DXY is still trending in a bearish channel, this means we should see some gold upside .. so i have placed my buy orders at above 2012 with the target there at 2021. Look out for the 2015 problem area .. it may be better to wait for it to close above there as its a previous strong zone.
sells are down at the 1993 .. that is a very strong level and is well respected .. any closure below there should see strong downside.
No major news for us tomorrow so there may not be huge moves .. but we are only looking for 100 pip ranges .. 100 pips is massive by the way!! .. thats just my style. Im not into fortune telling predicting the price of gold in 6 months.
have a nice evening wherever you are .. catch you tomorrow for updates on this post.
Tommy
What are Your Biggest Struggles in Trading?Hey everyone! I've been trading for a year now, and while I've had some successes, I've also faced some challenges along the way. I know I'm not alone in this, and I want to hear from you all too!
I believe that we can all learn from each other and grow as traders, which is why I'm reaching out to the TradingView community. If you're comfortable, I'd love to hear about your own trading struggles. Whether you're just starting out or a seasoned pro, I think we can all benefit from sharing our experiences. Moreover, we all know how lonely this journey can get, so sharing and learning from other's struggles could improve our mindset and the way we tackle the losses, as well as the success.
Personally, I struggle the most with keeping a trading journal organised and use it as a feedback loop, improving my trading strategy. I have tried for a while to keep track of my trades in apple notes, but it gets frustrating when you try to actually learn and discover patterns in your errors. On the other hand, another struggle comes when my emotions take over my strategy, and I have been searching desperately for tools and ways of fighting this urge.
Leave a comment of your biggest or most uncommon struggle and let's improve our trading skills by sharing!
BTC/USDT Analysis Hello traders
There is
A reversal signal, we expect to see prices drop at least to 29400
Testing a Youtube MACD StrategyIn previous articles, I’ve tested moving average crossovers and bounces.
But I didn’t test this famous (or infamous?) indicator related to them…
The MACD.
When I saw a video from TradingLab on Youtube called “BEST MACD Strategy,” I was curious to test his approach.
What’s a MACD Daddy-o?
It stands for Moving Averages Convergence Divergence. It’s meant to help us see momentum in the market.
So we take a shorter-duration moving average and pair it up with a longer one.
We then graph the difference between the two as its own line.
We also plot an MA of the difference, called the “signal” line.
When the signal line crosses over the difference line, we might be seeing a shift in direction.
The farther the signal line pushes away from the other, the stronger the momentum is in that direction.
Note: most charting software, including TradingView, also shows the difference as bars (a histogram).
So how are we gonna test this thing?
The Trading Truth Test Setup
We’re keeping the market and the test period the same as some of the previous tests, for easier comparison.
(The TradingLab video just says MACD works in many markets and timeframes, without limiting it to one for testing.)
Market: the S&P 500 index (using SPY to trade it, assuming SPY is exactly 1/10th the S&P 500 Index price)
Timeframe: Jan 2, 2008 to March 28, 2023
Bar interval: 1 hour
Moving averages: Unlike previous tests, where we used simple moving averages, we’re using exponential moving average here to weight recent prices more.
We use a 200 exponential moving average for overall trend direction.
For the MACD, we’re using the classic 12 bars and 26 bars to see the difference between them. And we’re the normal 9-bar MA of that difference as the signal line.
Starting Equity: $ 25,000
Max % of Equity Per Trade: 3%
Commissions, fees and taxes. To keep things super simple, we’re assuming these are all zero.
Our Test
When we get a MACD crossover between the signal line and the difference line, we look to go long.
But we only go long if:
the last closing price is above the 200 MA, and
When an upside MACD crossover (the signal line crossing up through the difference line) happens below its zero line (the lower half of the plotted indicator area).
We do the opposite to go short…
We short when price closes below the 200 MA and we get a downside MACD crossover above the zero line.
Our stop loss is 1 penny past the 200 MA value when entering the trade.
And our take-profit price is the difference between the entry price and the 200 MA (on entry) multiplied by 1.5. That’s the suggestion in the TradingLab video.
Note: The Youtube video suggests using support and resistance as another filter to avoid choppy markets. But there aren’t clear rules given, so I didn’t do that.
The Test Results
The test ended at $ 30,401.39, up 21.6% with a 46.9% win rate.
The biggest loss from the initial $ 25,000 deposit was $ 270.85, a 1.1% loss.
The maximum losing streak was $ 800.22 or 3.0% (from $ 26,908.66).
That said, the buy-and-hold return was 173.1%.
Quite a reward for sitting on your hands, especially given the tax advantages from long-term capital gains.
Note: I did this analysis in a spreadsheet, with exported TradingView data. If you see any errors, please let me know.
What Test Tweaks We Could Make
We could identify rules on when to stay out of the market.
MACD strategies, like many, get chopped up in sideways price action.
Some other MACD settings might also be interesting to test. We used only the most common settings here.
What would you test? And what else would you like to see tested?
Comment below!
AEX: Interesting set-up to cover exposure on European Stocks.I bought puts on the AEX to cover my portfolio exposure on long European stocks.
I advise you to consider allocating between 2%-3% of your portfolio value to options.
Risk management is key to outperforming the market.
Entry Level: 760
Stop Loss set at 805.
Expiry Date: May 19th 2023
First Take Profit at 740. Second Take Profit at 680.
*Important to pay attention to the price action at the level of 740. If it is recovered quickly, it will be bullish.
Consider moving the stop loss closer to the breakeven point if that happens.
I will leave half of the position to collect possible profits if it gets to 680.
XAUUSD How to enter on the retest (tutorial)Whats up gold gang! hope you have enjoyed your weekend .. its nearly market open .. so lets get ready.
This weeks educational post is talking about the retest .. so what is a retest. When price breaks a banking level .. i normally enter on the break out .. but if i miss that .. you can wait for the retest. This is where price comes back to the level to collect more orders before shooting off in the direction of the current trend.
Wait for a wick rejection at the banking level and a bullish candle to follow .. on the hour or 30m is the best .. then you can enter on the break of the previous bullish. Make sure this is at volume time around the opens.
As anything .. it sounds simple .. but tricky to get right .. and is a lower probability set up compared to the standard breakout.
Hope this was helpful guys .. please leave a like if you did. Ill be back tonight for the open and asian outlook going into tomorrow
tommyXAU
Importance of Comparing Automated Trading Strategies to Buy&HoldImportance of Comparing Automated Trading Strategies to Buy&Hold | 04/15/23
Recently, TradingView introduced a new backtesting feature that allows traders to compare their trading strategy to simple "buy and hold" strategies. This has proven to be very useful for our trading team and crypto community, especially when attempting to find the best settings for manual and automated trading scripts, such as our Ninja Signals V4 script, so we wanted to highlight this awesome new feature.
In this example, we used TradingView's new 'Compare to Buy & Hold' feature to compare our chosen configuration settings for our Ninja Signals V4 automated trading script and backtesting strategy. As you can see, our chosen settings have performed significnatly better than simple "buy and hold" strategies over the last several years (compare the green strategy profit line to the blue "buy and hold" profit line).
This new TradingView feature is very powerful, because it helps traders determine if a trading strategy is more or less profitable than simply buying and holding. Just because a trading strategy produces some profit does not mean that it is worth trading, especially if simple "buy and hold" strategies out-perform your chosen trading settings.
The settings used in this chart performed well even the recent bear market. As you can see in the strategy statistics, as "buy and hold" strategies were losing profit, the settings we used for our Ninja Signals V4 trading script were actually gaining profit. This new TradingView tool improves our ability to find good settings for both manual and automated trading strategies, and gives additional confirmation that profitable trading settings are better than simple "buy and hold" strategies.
Furthermore, the settings we used in this chart have compounding turned off, meaning each trade is the same order size, without any reinvesting of profits. Even as our trading fund grows from this profitable trading strategy, we continue to simply place orders for the same amount each time, rather than re-investing profits to trade larger and larger amounts (known as "compounding"). If compounding is turned on, profits grow much faster, but that is beyond the scope of this publication.
We will publish a separate educational idea in the future about the importance of comparing "compounding" vs "non-compounding" settings when backtesting, but for the purposes of this chart, we simply wanted to share that we were able to achieve significant profits, even in a bear market, and even with no compounding (no reinvesting of profits).
In conclusion, the new TradingView "Compare to Buy & Hold" backtesting feature gives traders a powerful new tool to find better settings for their chosen trading strategy, and additional confirmation and confidence that live trading will be successful. We thank the TradingView team for adding this powerful new feature!
LMT Lockheed Martin Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t bought LMT here:
Then analyzing the options chain of LMT Lockheed Martin prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing
Calls with a 515usd strike price and an expiration date of 2023-6-16, for a premium of approximately $5.85.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
BLK BlackRock Options Ahead of EarningsAfter the last Price Target was reached:
Now looking at the BLK BlackRock options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the HKEX:660 strike price Calls with
2023-4-14 expiration date for about
$12.05 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Dow Jones Daily TFIn the event that the Dow Jones ends at this level, it would create a favorable environment for purchasing opportunities, and I foresee a response in this particular domain. As a result, I will be monitoring the movement of gold with the expectation of a decline, which would present potential buying opportunities.
GOLD Monthly TF My prediction is that gold will experience a pullback before resuming an upward trend and reaching a new all-time high within the next few months. I am currently waiting for the price to reach a specific area of interest before actively seeking out potential buying opportunities.
GOLD 2hr TF Depending on how the situation develops, there may be two potential outcomes that could present buying opportunities.
Area of interest
2025-2027.5
2000- 2003.6
AVAXUSD [D] Hopefully time to think daily!Even daily chart turn on GREEN, so hopefully it's time to aiming daily targets (29-33 band) instead of or charts.
Real decentralized platform and transparent management! Be your advisor!
WDFC WD-40 Company Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the WDFC WD-40 Company options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $175 strike price Puts with
2023-4-21 expiration date for about
$6.40 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
The Case for the Dow Jones Breaking the 30,000 levelThe latest US GDP growth was 2.7% for Q4 2022. Unemployment rate is 3.4% in January 2023. Annual inflation rate is 6.4% in January. Fed Fund Rates is 4.50%-4.75% and climbing. Manufacturing and Industrials are struggling, but not bad. Yearly retail sales minted at 6.4% in January. The Fed Rate Monitor is showing an increase for a 0.25% at a 74.50% probability and for a 0.50% at 25.5% probability. Next month, the US NFP will be released March 10th, along with the unemployment rate; March 14th is the Inflation Rate YoY; March 15th PPI MoM; and finally the FED Interest Rate Decision.
This all looks good for the FED to keep raising rates and the question is, "how long can the DJ keep holding on above the 30,000. Yes the inflation data could potentially come out lower, but I am thinking that the FED thinks they have more room to raise rates and if it is true, that they are planning on raising rates a couple more times after the March Rate Decision, might be what is needed to start hammering the Dow Jones. I am thinking the inflation data before the meeting will push the thought of a 0.50% rate hike higher or lower, depending on what the printing looks like. I give it to the DJ, it is highly resistant and is managing to stay above the 30,000. But it is only a matter of time until it breaks lower.
Price / Earnings: Interpretation #1In one of my first posts , I talked about the main idea of my investment strategy: buy great “things” during the sales season . This rule can be applied to any object of the material world: real estate, cars, clothes, food and, of course, shares of public companies.
However, a seemingly simple idea requires the ability to understand both the quality of “things” and their value. Suppose we have solved the issue with quality (*).
(*) A very bold assumption, I realize that. However, the following posts will cover this topic in more detail. Be a little patient.
So, we know the signs of a high-quality thing and are able to define it skilfully enough. But what about its cost?
"Easy-peasy!" you will say, "For example, I know that the Mercedes-Benz plant produces high-quality cars, so I should just find out the prices for a certain model in different car dealerships and choose the cheapest one."
"Great plan!" I will say. But what about shares of public companies? Even if you find a fundamentally strong company, how do you know if it is expensive or cheap?
Let's imagine that the company is also a machine. A machine that makes profit. It needs to be fed with resources, things are happening in there, some cogs are turning, and as a result we get earnings. This is its main goal and purpose.
Each machine has its own name, such as Apple or McDonald's. It has its own resources and mechanisms, but it produces one product – earnings.
Now let’s suppose that the capitalization of the company is the value of such a machine. Let's see how much Apple and McDonald's cost today:
Apple - $2.538 trillion
McDonald's - $202.552 billion
We see that Apple is more than 10 times more expensive than McDonald's. But is it really so from an investor's point of view?
The paradox is that we can't say for sure that Apple is 10 times more expensive than McDonald's until we divide each company's value by its earnings. Why exactly? Let's count and it will become clear:
Apple's diluted net income - $99.803 billion a year
McDonald's diluted net income - $6.177 billion a year
Now read this phrase slowly, and if necessary, several times: “The value is what we pay now. Earnings are what we get all the time” .
To understand how many dollars we need to pay now for the production of 1 dollar of profit a year, we need to divide the value of the company (its capitalization) by its annual profit. We get:
Apple - $25.43
McDonald’s - $32.79
It turns out that in order to get $ 1 earnings a year, for Apple we need to pay $25.43, and for McDonald's - $32.79. Wow!
Currently, I believe that Apple appears cheaper than McDonald's.
To remember this information better, imagine two machines that produce one-dollar bills at the same rate (once a year). In the case of an Apple machine, you pay $25.43 to issue this bill, and in the case of a McDonald’s machine, you pay $32.70. Which one will you choose?
So, if we remove the $ symbol from these numbers, we get the world's most famous financial ratio Price/Earnings or P/E . It shows how much we, as investors, need to pay for the production of 1 unit of annual profit. And pay only once.
There are two formulas for calculating this financial ratio:
1. P/E = Price of 1 share / Diluted EPS
2. P/E = Capitalization / Diluted Net Income
Whatever formula you use, the result will be the same. By the way, I mainly use the Diluted Net Income instead of the regular one in my calculations. So do not be confused if you see a formula with a Net Income – you can calculate it this way as well.
So, in the current publication, I have analyzed one of the interpretations of this financial ratio. But, in fact, there is another interpretation that I really like. It will help you realize which P/E level to choose for yourself. But more on that in the next post. See you!
Successful Automated Trading : Alpha Scalping Bot (XAUSUSD)Alpha Scalping Bot ( FX:XAUUSD )
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Why do most traders end up losing moneyThis question is quite scary, but if you are a novice and see this question, congratulations, you are on the right path of trading.
The most important lesson to learn before entering the financial markets is risk expectation.
You can ask yourself, how much money do you want to make from trading? Is your goal asset appreciation, or a small fortune?
If a trade loses money, will it affect your own life?
Is your own character able to stop losses in time, or do you have no self-control?
After asking these questions, we decide whether to enter the financial market.
So why do the vast majority of traders lose money?
1. Because of the particularity of the financial market.
I believe that many friends have heard of the 28 rule. For example, in the distribution of wealth in our society, 20% of people control 80% of social wealth; 20% of people will persist in encountering difficulties, and 80% of people will give up when encountering difficulties.
The rule of 28 is ubiquitous in life, and it also determines what kind of people will succeed and what kind of people will fail.
As for the financial market, it is crueler than real life, because there are no rules in this market, only human nature, so the financial market even surpasses the rule of 28, and less than 10% of people may make profits. In the face of money, most people want to make a big fortune with a small amount, and want to turn around by trading, so those who have stable personalities, strong self-control, low income expectations, and money in their hands are silently harvesting these people who are eager for quick success.
Some people may say that the world is inherently unfair, and those who hold funds can only survive because of the capital.
Actually no. We Xiaosan hold small funds, and we can achieve low return expectations, or we can do it slowly, but how many people are just anxious to make money? Just want to make a big difference with a small one? Just don’t regard money as money, and think it’s a big deal to take a gamble, and if it’s gone, it’s gone?
So it has nothing to do with the amount of capital, but has something to do with people. In financial markets, human nature is the rule.
2. Too many people are dominated by human nature.
As I said before, there are no rules in the financial market, and human nature is the rule.
Trading is a very anti-human thing. Human nature is greedy for comfort, averse to risk, afraid of losing, feeling that one's level is higher than others, hating giving and learning, impatient, etc., which will be infinitely magnified in trading.
There is a saying in the trading industry that trading can be profitable, mentality accounts for 70%, and technology accounts for 30%. In actual combat, it seems that it is not difficult for traders to see the market correctly, but it is very difficult to complete this wave of market and make profits. Why?
I give two examples.
For example, the problem of stop loss in trading.
Seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages is a characteristic of human nature, unwillingness to lose, unwilling to accept losses, this is human self-protection awareness. Stopping losses in the wrong direction means losing our real money, who can bear it? So in actual combat, many people rationally know that the direction is wrong, but they just don't stop losses, and even increase their positions against the trend, floating orders, allowing the stop loss to become bigger and bigger, and finally lead to serious losses.
Another example is the profitable position in the transaction.
The market trend always fluctuates upwards, or fluctuates downwards, and profit taking in positions is often encountered. Once profits are withdrawn, we will have a sense of insecurity in our hearts, worrying about the reversal of the market and losing profits. This insecurity is also due to human nature.
Even if we rationally know that the profit target has not yet been reached, we should continue to hold positions, but the little emotion of longing for peace of mind has been tormenting us, and in the end we couldn't help but close the position, and made a lot of less money. We comfort ourselves that it is all right, at least there is no loss. But in fact, less earning = loss, because the amount you lose next time will be greater than the money you earn. In the long run, your overall loss will be.
There are many such examples, such as betting on the market, heavy trading, unwillingness to admit defeat, stop loss leading to liquidation, etc., are all caused by the aversion to loss in human nature and the fear of failure.
In fact, if we look at the trading market 100 years ago, it is basically the same as the current human nature problem. The weakness of human nature is very strong, and it is also the main reason why traders lose money.
So at the beginning, I asked everyone to ask themselves those questions, just to let everyone understand their own personality, their current situation, and their human nature, so as to help you win certain opportunities in the trading market.
Trading is like a free game. It seems that the threshold is low and no money is required, but in fact some hidden costs are contained in it, and the human nature is clearly played for you. Therefore, before making a transaction, you must have an existing risk expectation, and then think about making money.
Hunting Breakouts with Bollinger Bands and OBVThanks to zAngus for the idea, here is a simple trading strategy that uses two tools: Bollinger Bands and OBV to find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease.
First and foremost, please note that this explanation is simplified and only covers the basics. Each individual can develop their own settings and adjustments according to their own preferences.
Imagine that you are looking at a price chart of an asset. This chart shows how prices have changed over time. Sometimes prices go up and sometimes they go down.
The trading strategy we are going to show you can help you find moments when prices are about to change direction.
- Bollinger Bands are lines that show a zone where prices of an asset are likely to stay.
These lines have two parts: a middle line that shows an average of prices and two other lines that show the zone where prices should be.
The lines widen and narrow based on the volatility of prices.
- OBV (On-Balance Volume) is another tool that measures whether more people are buying or selling an asset.
If more people are buying an asset, OBV increases, and if more people are selling an asset, OBV decreases.
Now, here is how we use these two tools to find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease:
1. First, we wait for prices to stabilize for a certain amount of time. This means that prices don't go up or down much during a given period.
2. Next, we look at the Bollinger Bands to see if prices have reached the upper or lower limit. If prices exceed the upper limit, it may mean that prices will increase.
If prices fall below the lower limit, it may mean that prices will decrease.
3. To confirm what we have seen in the Bollinger Bands, we look at the OBV.
If OBV increases or decreases at the same time as prices exceed the upper or lower limit of the Bollinger Bands, it means that more people are buying or selling the asset, and this reinforces our idea that prices will increase or decrease.
4. We enter the market by buying or selling the asset based on whether we think prices will increase or decrease.
5. We exit the market when prices reach the opposite upper or lower limit of the Bollinger Bands or an important resistance zone.
This is a simple strategy, but it can help find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease.
Remember that you must always use good risk management to avoid losing too much money if the market doesn't follow your forecast.
Please note that this Bollinger Bands and OBV breakout trading strategy involves risk and is intended for educational purposes only. Any investments made using this strategy are done at your own risk, and you should always do your own research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
Bitcoin Chart Setting Up for Big MoveThe chart has been setting up this move for some time now.
We have the neckline of this inverted head and shoulders which allows for a drop to 14,700 while forming a bullish pattern structure. Additional to this neckline, we have a local bearish retest and 3-5 more bearish retests intersecting with this same price range marked in green. Stop loss in purple.
DXY may allow for this move to happen and it could very well be a fast wick, since price only needs to touch the neckline to create a valid justification for a low zone of interest despite bullish sentiments for Bitcoin. Drops are well justified inside of a bullish pattern.
Very sophisticated chart set up. Move would be justified in either a bearish or bullish forecast since it is both at the same time.
There is a lower time frame bearish retest at this level as well as a parallel channel top that can be marked with proper trend lines. The channel bottom is 26,650
Keep an eye out or set alerts for what could be the surprise move of the year.
