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Little bull call spread on StellantisI believe we are in the end of an accumulation. We had bad news lately about this company and his CEO. I don't want to own the stock, specially in this part of the economic cycle. This is purely a speculative trade. There is a divergence in the awesome oscillator marking a possible end of the bear trend and right after, a period of low volatility characteristic of accumulations as we can see in the multiple historical volatility oscillator below. A spring a few days ago confirmed there were strong buyers. Now we are against the trendline. So, I believe it's cheap (from ~€25 went down to ~€12,50) and it should make a bullish move shortly. Strategy: Bull call spread Expiration: 17 JAN 2025 (45 days to expiration) Legs = +2 calls 13 and -2 calls 14 Premium = 0.27 * 100 stocks * 2 q per leg = €54 Max gain= €146 Risk / Reward = 2.7 Commissions= €1.5 (only open) Break-even = From 13.27 (lower call + premium) Historical Volatility (45 days) = 35,85% Implicit Volatility = ~31% In English: If the underlying (the stock) arrives at 13.27 I start earning money. If it gets to 14 or if it surpasses this price, I get to the max reward. I can lose at the most €54 + commisions even if the stock goes to €1. The blue lines in the chart represent Breakeven, Max reward price and Expiration so I can follow the underlying. Now it's time to follow the DOM for each option. I hope this process of thought helps you in your trades, specially if you are now to options.
EURONEXT:STLAPLong
by NicolasRZ
Can a Pharmaceutical Giant Rewrite Its Own Destiny?In the complex world of global pharmaceuticals, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. emerges as a compelling narrative of strategic reinvention. Under the leadership of CEO Richard Francis, the company has transformed from a struggling enterprise to a potential market leader, executing a bold "Pivot to Growth" strategy that has captured the attention of investors and industry experts alike. The company's remarkable journey reflects corporate resilience and a profound understanding of how strategic focus and innovative thinking can resurrect a seemingly faltering business. Teva's renaissance is characterized by calculated moves that challenge traditional pharmaceutical business models. By strategically divesting its Japanese joint venture, selectively targeting high-potential generic markets, and developing promising drug candidates like Anti-TL1A, the company has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to reimagine its core strengths. The financial metrics tell a compelling story: a 66% market capitalization increase, double-digit revenue growth, and a strategic pipeline that promises future innovation in critical therapeutic areas such as neurology and digestive system treatments. Beyond financial metrics, Teva represents a broader narrative of corporate transformation that extends beyond balance sheets. Its commitment to patient access programs, such as the recent inhaler donation initiative with Direct Relief, reveals a deeper organizational philosophy that intertwines strategic growth with social responsibility. This approach challenges the traditional perception of pharmaceutical companies as purely profit-driven entities, positioning Teva as a forward-thinking organization that understands its broader role in global healthcare ecosystems. The company's journey poses a provocative question to business leaders and investors: Can strategic vision, relentless innovation, and a commitment to patient care truly redefine a corporation's trajectory? Teva's emerging story suggests that the answer is a resounding yes—a testament to the power of adaptive strategy, visionary leadership, and an unwavering commitment to pushing the boundaries of what's possible in the pharmaceutical landscape.
NYSE:TEVALong
by signalmastermind
USD/JPY awaiting the FED!The USD/JPY exchange rate as of December 12, 2024, reflects an increase of approximately 0.4%, reaching 152.50, driven by November's U.S. inflation data and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy. The published data shows a 0.3% monthly rise in headline CPI, slightly above the 0.2% consensus, while core CPI remained stable at 0.3%. On an annual basis, headline inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.6%, and core CPI was steady at 3.3%, in line with projections. These results reinforce expectations for an interest rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with an estimated 84% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. Markets interpret the data as a sign that inflation is under control, potentially allowing the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy to support economic growth. The 10-year Treasury yield, stable at 4.226%, indicates relative calm in bond markets, which may help limit volatility in the U.S. dollar. USD/JPY continues to benefit from the yield differential between U.S. and Japanese assets, supporting dollar strength. However, upcoming economic data, such as the PPI and initial jobless claims, will be crucial in confirming or adjusting market expectations. The 152.50 level represents a critical zone: a break above 152.80 could signal further bullish momentum toward 2024 highs, while a pullback might bring the pair to key support at 151.50. The current scenario suggests a consolidative phase, but incoming data and the Fed's decision will be pivotal in shaping future direction.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold Analysis - December 2024Gold maintains its bullish momentum, trading above $2,660 per ounce due to optimism surrounding new economic stimulus from China and a weakening US Dollar, which enhance the appeal of the precious metal. During American trading hours, spot gold reached an intraday high of $2,667.31, reflecting sustained demand after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) resumed gold purchases following a six-month hiatus. This aligns with a macroeconomic context that favors safe-haven assets. News of Chinese stimulus has improved sentiment for gold, with China, being a significant consumer and investor, showing clear support for prices through central bank purchases. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is weakening ahead of key central bank announcements and economic data releases, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Attention is focused on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Wednesday, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A higher-than-expected CPI could pressure gold, while weaker data may further support its bullish trend. Decisions from various central banks, including the Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoE, may shape market sentiment, with dovish signals potentially further boosting gold. Wall Street opened lower, with major indices in the red, while government bond yields ticked slightly higher, creating a mixed environment that supports safe-haven flows into gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Floki (FLOKI) - Trade Update!Hey team! Let’s talk about my latest trade on Floki: - Market Strength: Despite the overall bearishness in the crypto market, Floki has shown incredible strength, standing out from the crowd. - Trade Breakdown: - I went long on Friday , following the setup from our WiseOwl Indicator. The indicator locked in an 8.48% gain on the first position and immediately re-entered. - For this trade, I used my own risk management strategy—I held the first position and reloaded on the second entry. - Current Position: My position is now sitting at +16.73% , and I’m in a great spot. I’m expecting more bullishness in the short term , so staying patient and letting the market do its thing. ⚡️ Sticking to the plan and adapting risk management can really pay off—let’s see where this goes!
Long
by TraderOuss_LumaNex
EUR/USD moving towards 1.02!As of December 8, 2024, the EUR/USD exchange rate has shown significant volatility, influenced by mixed economic data and central bank monetary policies. Recently, the exchange rate hit multi-year lows, bottoming out at 1.0332 on November 22, followed by a rebound that brought the pair to fluctuate around 1.0570. The Dollar Index (DXY) declined after initial jobless claims rose to 224,000 in the week ending November 30, compared to 215,000 in the previous week. However, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December showed an improvement, indicating increased consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. The Eurozone economy has shown signs of slowing, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI declining and a contraction in France's services sector activity. This data highlights economic weakness that could influence future decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). The market currently sees a 70% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed in its December meeting. Historically, December has been a positive month for EUR/USD, with an average return of 1.23% over the past 50 years. However, current economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties could limit this seasonal trend.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Coinbase Momentous Swing: Trade Idea Greetings Everyone , Today, we are diving into the ticker symbol NASDAQ:COIN , representing Coinbase. For this analysis, I’ve charted the Euro ticker for Coinbase ( MIL:1COIN ), which mirrors the same price action. Quick Facts About Coinbase: • Coinbase is an online trading platform where users can buy and sell cryptocurrencies, often referred to as “coins” or “altcoins.” • The stock is heavily influenced by the cryptocurrency market. Historically, during Bitcoin bull markets, Coinbase’s price has shown a tendency to surge. Trading Plan Setup There is two sides to a Coin 🪙 . Similarly this pennant setup has two possible outcomes. I have charted the zones where I would expect price to break above or reject in order to continue in its path. Point 1: Optimal Entry We are currently underneath that major resistance price level. If you were to go long here with a close stop loss & aim for the primary zone / green line - In the event that price does continue higher you would have the best entry & area to take more risk. However, Is this the most optimal way to trade a pennant? Not at all. The recommended setup is a break above the green line (peak) potentially a hold and then continuation higher. It begs the question what rules do professional traders follow in this scenario? Are you using option strategies like Long Straddle, Long Strangle or Iron Condor? I would love to know please drop a comment below. Point 2: Consolidation Price is consolidating this can continue for days or another week? Monitor price action with alerts one higher one lower. Point 3: Breakout without Volume A breakout without volume confirmation is doomed to fail. Be careful of this scenario. Second subject: In my previous post, I have created a quick survey - please feel free to complete it so that I can provide relevant information to you. Best, C - Lemard
MIL:1COINLong
by coilemard
2
GBPUSD towards 1.28!The GBP/USD pair shows signs of recovery toward the 1.2700 level during European trading, supported by a moderate weakening of the US Dollar due to improved market sentiment and profit-taking ahead of the release of the US JOLTS data. Fundamentally, the pair is consolidating losses after a decline of more than 0.5% recorded on Monday, limiting the damage thanks to the drop in the EUR/GBP pair, indicating capital flows from the Eurozone to the United Kingdom. Investors are closely monitoring the US JOLTS Job Openings data: a figure equal to or above 8 million could strengthen the Dollar, generating additional bearish pressure on GBP/USD. Moreover, attention is focused on the speeches by Federal Reserve members, with recent statements highlighting uncertainties about a potential rate cut in December. The current probability of a 25 basis points rate cut stands at 72%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, but more cautious signals from officials could keep the Dollar in a strong position. Therefore, the direction of the pair remains tied to the evolution of macroeconomic data and monetary policy, with a consolidation dynamic reflecting the balance between technical and fundamental factors.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Are Funded Trading Accounts Right for You? In the trading world, funded accounts are becoming increasingly popular. But are they the right fit for your trading journey? Let’s break it down: 🔥 What Is a Funded Account? It’s simple: You trade using someone else’s capital, usually provided by a proprietary trading firm. In exchange, you keep a percentage of the profits, often ranging from 70% to 90%. ⚖️ Pros of Funded Accounts: No Risk to Your Personal Capital: You’re trading someone else’s money. Access to Larger Capital: Grow your profits with higher lot sizes and better leverage. Keeps You Disciplined: Many firms require strict adherence to risk management rules. 💡 Challenges to Consider: Evaluation Phase: Most firms require you to pass a challenge or verification, proving your profitability and discipline. Daily/Overall Drawdowns: Strict rules on losses can be unforgiving. Profit Splits: A portion of your earnings goes to the firm. 📈 Is It for You? If you’re confident in your strategy and risk management, funded accounts can be an incredible opportunity. If you’re still learning or struggle with discipline, it might be better to focus on improving your skills first. 🏆 Popular Funded Account Firms: FTMO, Alpha Capital Group, The5ers, and more! Research each one to find the best fit for your style. Have you tried a funded account? What was your experience like? Let’s discuss below!
by Safaric
Kava Heavy Bearmarket- This analysis is presented as a tutorial. Some of you may already be familiar with MACD, but for those who aren’t, I’m happy to guide you through it. - Today, I’d like to share some insights on how to determine whether a token is still in a bear market or if it's on the verge of changing direction. - As always everything is noted in the graphic, so lets go : 1 . First, focus on the orange line, which is the most crucial one, sitting around $1.20. Did you notice that in 2020, Kava bounced off this line? Back then, it served as strong support. Now, take note that Kava was rejected twice in 2023 and 2024 at this exact same price level, this support just turned as a strong resistance. 2. Take a look at the MACD indicator Lines. During Kava's bull market in 2020, the MACD was consistently moving in the positive zone (bullmarket green area). After Kava's crash, observe how Kava have been repeatedly rejected at this exact middle line and continued to evolve in a negative zone (bearmarket red area). 3. Finally, take a closer look at the "hammer Emoji" and the bearish trendline. You will observe that everything is interconnected. At times, Kava gets "hammered" at the $1.20 level along the middle line, while at other times, it encounters resistance on its bearish trendline. None of this is coincidental. Conclusion : - Kava remains is still in a heavy bear market. As a relatively young token, it's difficult to analyze long-term historical data. However, with time, extending the timeframe to 1 or 3 months can help reduce noise and potentially detect a bullish reversal. - Kava's key level is $1.20. When it stays below this, it's better to step back, touch some grass, and wait for a breakout before considering any long positions. - If you’re looking to trade profitably, always go with the flow. Don’t try to long something that’s trending downward or short something that's rising. It’s simply a matter of logic. Happy Tr4Ding !
KRAKEN:KAVAUSD
by thecryer
388.HK Stock option Short Put idea for Dec 2024Hello Trades, The Hang Seng Index experienced a single-day rebound in the days before and after the settlement, with significant increases in most constituent stocks. We are deploying a Hong Kong stock options strategy for next month. We will use the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as the center for our options strategy. We see that the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is currently in a consolidation range on the weekly chart. The strike price is between $260 and $290.
HKEX:388Long
by ICT_Trader_SB
Why people losing there money even in the bull market?In a bull market, where prices are generally rising and optimism prevails, it’s easy to assume making money is straightforward. However, many people still lose money due to the following reasons: 1. Chasing Hype FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Investors buy at elevated prices because they don’t want to miss the rally, only to see prices correct. Overconfidence in speculative assets: Buying trendy stocks or assets without proper research often leads to losses when the bubble bursts. 2. Lack of a Strategy No exit plan: Many investors fail to take profits, thinking prices will keep going up indefinitely. When the market dips, they lose their gains. Short-term mentality: Impulsive decisions without long-term goals can result in buying high and selling low. 3. Over-Leverage Using borrowed money to invest amplifies losses if the market doesn’t perform as expected. When the market dips, leveraged investors are forced to sell to cover their debts. 4. Ignoring Fundamentals Many buy overvalued stocks or assets without considering whether the price reflects the company's actual worth. Following the crowd often leads to investing in overpriced or low-quality assets. 5. Emotional Trading Fear and greed dominate decisions. For example, panic selling during minor corrections or buying excessively due to market euphoria. 6. Overtrading Constantly trying to time the market or moving between assets leads to transaction fees and poor timing. 7. Falling for Scams Bull markets often attract scams, like pump-and-dump schemes, fraudulent projects, or overly hyped Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). 8. Holding Through the Peak Some investors fail to recognize when the bull market is near its end and hold onto assets through the subsequent downturn. Even in a bull market, discipline, research, and a clear strategy are essential to avoid costly mistakes. Best Regards 🎯
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ceciliones
8
GOLD: Waiting for the CPI release!After the recent breakdown of the critical $2,600 threshold, Gold (XAU/USD) has regained ground, reclaiming this level despite the persistent strengthening of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. However, technically, XAU/USD shows bearish potential: on the daily chart, the price has dropped further below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is trending downward. Technical indicators, while slowing their descent, remain deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal or interim support. Fundamentally, Gold is hovering near $2,600, awaiting significant US economic data and pressured by the strong demand for the Dollar, bolstered by political tensions in the US and Europe, including the escalating political crisis in Germany and weakness in Asian and European markets. Investors are closely watching for the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Wednesday, which could fuel further speculation on the future of US economic policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Trump's Fiscal PoliciesThe EUR/USD exchange rate is on a three-day decline, trading around 1.0640. Expected fiscal policies under the Trump administration could negatively impact the European economy, adding downward pressure on the Euro. Continued movement in this direction could push the pair toward its November low of 1.0628, and eventually, the yearly low in April around 1.0601. Pressure on EUR/USD has intensified as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently surpassed the 105 mark, supported by expectations of an expansionary U.S. fiscal policy under President Trump. Simultaneously, German 10-year yields have fallen to monthly lows near the 2.30% zone, reflecting a context of Euro weakness. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve recently cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range between 4.75% and 5.00%. Although inflation is approaching the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of slowing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has taken a cautious stance on December's policy decision, noting that economic uncertainty makes it challenging to provide clear guidance. In Europe, the ECB recently cut the deposit rate to 3.25% but has adopted a cautious approach to future cuts, awaiting upcoming economic data. Meanwhile, the Trump administration may introduce new tariffs on European and Chinese goods and promote expansionary fiscal policies, indirectly supporting inflation and providing the Fed with additional reasons to keep rates steady or pause further cuts. In terms of market positioning, net short positions in the Euro have decreased to 21.6K contracts but remain significant.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1