AUD/USD BEARISH OUTLOOKOANDA:AUDUSD
HI, TRADER'S As you see as per predicted AUDUSD broke the Channel UP Last Week
AND Now again Trading in an UP channel , Market is reaching towards
major Resistance WHERE 20,50,200 EMA waiting to resist Market
Take your entries of sell and target down 70-100 pips
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Strategy!
EURUSD-> The pair shows a bear flag. What to expect?EURUSD is moving into a correction phase. The price rests against the conditional support at 1.065 and forms a bearish flag. This pattern shows us the potential to revive the fall further.
The price tests the support zone of 1.07116 in a bearish flag format. A breakdown of the support of the local range may lead to liquidating the buying liquidity and activating the momentum for a strong bearish impulse.
However, I expect in the near term an exit of the price from the range downwards, a breakdown of the support of 1.07116, and price movement towards 1.065, and then to 1.0430
Gold (XAUUSD): That Was a Breakout for bearish pattern FlagSo it turned out that Gold broke a major rising trend line yesterday.
The market has successfully closed below that daily, engulfing the last 3 bullish candles.
That may push the price lower.
Next support at 1833
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ENPH Enphase Energy Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the ENPH Enphase Energy options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $215 strike price Puts with
2023-2-10 expiration date for about
$9.16 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
GBP/AUD RANGE TRADINGOANDA:GBPAUD
HI,TRADER'S , AS Per Chart analysis market is trading in tight range
Market is in Channel Down and in Channel price is ranging in descending triangle
scenario 1 that market break down triangle and retest channel and go further down to support level
scenario 2 That market break up triangle and retest upper trendline
Note : Wait for breakout and than take Trade
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EURUSD Trend WatchShould the current trend on #EURUSD daily chart hold, we can expect to see an upward surge in the monthly levels, with bullish price targets ranging from 1.1000 to 1.1250. On the other hand, in the event that the trend were to break, a head & shoulders pattern may emerge, presenting opportunities for more cautious, bearish investments with price targets around 1.05000 - 1.02500.
Strategy #2-Find fair market value after a very bearish/bullish candle pattern in a structure break (liquidity grab).
-Use technical analysis tool (levels, trendlines, fibonacci, channel, range or next fair market value) to find a take profit or get 50% out at 2% + stop loss at breakeven.
-If price does not get past 2% profit, close position when a candle body closes through fair market value.
-15m timeframe
-30 pips stop loss
PEP PepsiCo Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t bought PEP after my last call:
Then you should know that looking at the PEP PepsiCo options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $165 strike price Puts with
2023-2-17 expiration date for about
$1.83 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Strategy #1Support and resistance from last high and low on the daily timeframe.
Draw a trendline.
Use a fib from the first high/low to the last.
Use a reversed fib to correlate its extensions to the first fibs retracements.
2-3 confluences to take a trade.
100 pip stop loss.
30 pip stop loss for scalps.
Strategy Coding E03: Implementing a "Signal Based" StrategyPineScript allows you to define a single custom source value for an input to another indicator or strategy.
Here we will demonstrate how you can have a very simple strategy that attempts to respond to that signal. The simplest way to do this is that he signal (indicator) emits the number of desired shares.
Mark Minervini's gains relative to S&P500 during 2021competition
I came across some data which enabled me to construct a chart showing Mark Minervini's monthly gains in his spectacularly successful 2021 trading competition win. I also measured the equivalent monthly gains of the S&P500. My aim was to study how he performed relative to the monthly Index movement so that I could, perhaps, understand his methodology. I have to say that it didn't live up to my expectations as it was hard to see the relationship in some months. I wondered if there was an overall competition winning strategy behind the performance of some of the later months.
Text from 'restricted during publishing' Text Box'
Mark Minervini- 2021 USA Trading Competition Winner-
~340% in one year! No holding strategy even comes close, to my knowledge.
(Mark also won the 1997 competition!)
Daily Candlestick Chart shows Mark's monthly, published and verified, performance against the S&P500's. It's educational to study the correlation between Mark's monthly returns against chart price movements.
Perhaps some risk strategy was employed during the last few months in order to preserve the already spectacular percentage achieved half way through the competition year!
Slow Dough @Whole_wit Fri 23rdJan 2023
Jack Corsellis also has helpful looks into specific buys and sells with the actual charts of various transactions of the 1997 competition, that Mark Minervini also won. www.youtube.com
I obtained the monthly competition results data from Linus Lim's video at around 1:08 from start. www.youtube.com
DISH long hedged options playEveryone knows DISH Network. (Fun fact: the name is an acronym for DIgital Sky Highway.) Colorado-based Dish also does business through Sling TV and offers mobile service via Dish Wireless and prepaid service Boost Mobile, with plans to offer wireless internet and its own video streaming -- they do own Blockbuster. Dish TV has about 10 million paid subscribers.
TA-oriented investors might spot some bullish signals, like the falling wedge and double bottom, while the price has recently moved above the MA. With the recent SPX / SPY / QQQ rallying, maybe it's time to consider a company at the crossroads of tech, infrastructure, media and entertainment. However, stocks' response to the latest jobs report and less-than-stellar Big Tech earnings might also give pause.
Here's an options strategy that captures growth potential of 13% (21% annualized) while also providing downside protection of 35% -- start to lose only if DISH falls below $9.99 as of 9/15/23.
Hedged like this:
Buy 1 $15 Call
Sell 1 $17.50 Call
Sell 2 $10 Puts
All expiring 9/15/23
Capital requirement: $1998
The income statement: the place where profit livesToday we are going to look at the second of the three main reports that a company publishes during the earnings season, the income statement. Just like the balance sheet, it is published every quarter and year. This is how we can find out how much a company earns and how much it spends. The difference between revenues and expenses is called profit . I would like to highlight this term "profit" again, because there is a very strong correlation between the dynamics of the stock price and the profitability of the company.
Let's take a look at the stock price charts of companies that are profitable and those that are unprofitable.
3 charts of unprofitable companies :
3 charts of profitable companies :
As we can see, stocks of unprofitable companies have a hard enough time growing, while profitable companies, on the contrary, are getting fundamental support to grow their stocks. We know from the previous post that a company's Equity grows due to Retained Earnings. And if Equity grows, so do Assets. Recall: Assets are equal to the sum of a company's Equity and Liabilities. Thus, growing Assets, like a winch attached to a strong tree, pull our machine (= stock price) higher and higher. This is, of course, a simplified example, but it still helps to realize that a company's financial performance directly affects its value.
Now let's look at how earnings are calculated in the income statement. The general principle is this: if we subtract all expenses from revenue, we get profit . Revenue is calculated quite simply - it is the sum of all goods and services sold over a period (a quarter or a year). But expenses are different, so in the income statement we will see one item called "Total revenue" and many items of expenses. These expenses are deducted from revenue gradually (top-down). That is, we don't add up all the expenses and then subtract the total expenses from the revenue - no. We deduct each expense item individually. So at each step of this subtraction, we get different kinds of profit : gross profit, operating income, pretax income, net income. So let's look at the report itself.
- Total revenue
This is, as we've already determined, the sum of all goods and services sold for the period. Or you could put it another way: this is all the money the company received from sales over a period of time. Let me say right off the bat that all of the numbers in this report are counted for a specific period. In the quarterly report, the period, respectively, is 1 quarter, and in the annual report, it is 1 year.
Remember my comparison of the balance sheet with the photo ? When we analyze the balance sheet, we see a photo (data snapshot) on the last day of the reporting period, but not so in the income statement. There we see the accumulated amounts for a specific period (i.e. from the beginning of the reporting quarter to the end of that quarter or from the beginning of the reporting year to the end of that year).
- Cost of goods sold
Since materials and other components are used to make products, accountants calculate the amount of costs directly related to the production of products and place them in this item. For example, the cost of raw materials for making shoes would fall into this item, but the cost of salaries for the accountant who works for that company would not. You could say that these costs are costs that are directly related to the quantity of goods produced.
- Gross profit (Gross profit = Total revenue - Cost of goods sold)
If we subtract the cost of goods sold from the total revenue, we get gross profit.
- Operating expenses (Operating expenses are costs that are not part of the cost of production)
Operating expenses include fixed costs that have little or no relation to the amount of output. These may include rental payments, staff salaries, office support costs, advertising costs, and so on.
- Operating income (Operating income = Gross profit - Operating expenses)
If we subtract operating expenses from gross profit, we get operating income. Or you can calculate it this way: Operating income = Total revenue - Cost of goods sold - Operating expenses.
- Non-operating income (this item includes all income and expenses that are not related to regular business operations)
It is interesting, that despite its name, non-operating income and operating income can have negative values. For this to happen, it is sufficient that the corresponding expenses exceed the income. This is a clear demonstration of how businessmen revere profit and income, but avoid the word "loss" in every possible way. Apparently, a negative operating income sounds better. Below is a look at two popular components of non-operating income.
- Interest expense
This is the interest the company pays on loans.
- Unusual income/expense
This item includes unusual income minus unusual expenses. "Unusual" means not repeated in the course of regular activities. Let's say you put up a statue of the company's founder - that's an unusual expense. And if it was already there, and it was sold, that's unusual income.
- Pretax income (Pretax income = Operating income + Non-operating income)
If we add or subtract (depending on whether it is negative or positive) non-operating income to operating income, we get pretax income.
- Income tax
Income tax reduces our profit by the tax rate.
- Net income (Net income = Pretax income - Income tax)
Here we get to the income from which expenses are no longer deducted. That is why it is called "net". It is the bottom line of any company's performance over a period. Net income can be positive or negative. If it's positive, it's good news for investors, because it can go either to pay dividends or to further develop the company and increase profits.
This concludes part one of my series of posts on the Income statement. In the next parts, we'll break down how net income is distributed to holders of different types of stock: preferred and common. See you soon!
XAUUSD Long BIAS Gold is currently testing Major structure levels of 1912-1909 zones that previously held very perfectly by the market now we can long from here with Minimum Sl
Trade wisely
NOTE:
if this area does the we have the area of 1900 where we can see some good move with strong bullish momemtum
Dollar weakness still intact
X United States Steel Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the X United States Steel options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $29 strike price Calls with
2023-2-3 expiration date for about
$0.83 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
You Can Have the Cake and Eat it TooCBOT: Treasury Yield Spread 10Y-2YY ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro Dow ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ), Micro S&P ( CME_MINI:MES1! )
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. The move marked the eighth consecutive hikes that have began in March 2022. The overnight risk-free rate is now at its highest level since October 2007.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sends mixed signals in his post-FOMC meeting news conference but appears more dovish comparing to previous speeches.
The Committee thinks that “on-going increases in the target range will be appropriate”. These words send stocks down minutes after the speech begins at 2:30PM.
However, during the Q&A session, when the Fed Chair confirms, for the first time, that “the disinflationary process has started,” the stock market rebounds strongly and finishes in the positive territory for the day.
Other mixed messages:
• Inflation data shows a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases;
• It would be “very premature to declare victory or to think we really got this”;
• It’s “possible” that the funds rate could stay lower than 5%;
• Unlikely the Fed would cut rates this year unless inflation comes down more rapidly.
Actions speak louder than words. In two rate-setting meetings, the Fed has slowed the pace from 75 bps to 25 bps. The path is not likely to reverse, and future rate hikes will come down to just two options, either 0 or 25 bps. In my opinion, the terminal rate will end at 5% or 5.25% after the March and May meeting.
In recent months, the “Risk” button has been pressed on for risky assets:
• The Dow is up 19% since October, and the S&P and the Nasdaq are up 17% and 18% for the same period, respectively;
• Gold futures rallies 21% since November, while Bitcoin jumps 58%;
• Tesla and Ark Innovation ETF gain 47% and 33% year-to-date, respectively.
Historically, it’s rare for the stock market to dip two years or more in a row. For the S&P 500, it only happened four times in the last 100 years. The odds favor stock investors in the Year of Rabbits after a brutal double-digit selloff in 2022.
Fed rate hikes and high inflation are like a brake that decelerated the running economy car. Now that the driver’s foot is off the brake, will the economy improve immediately?
Not so fast. We will endure higher costs for months to come. Take the example of food items, once the price goes up, it usually stays up for the year. Sometimes, suppliers resolve to reducing the size of package for the illusion of keeping the same price, a tactic known as “Shrinkflation”. Wages, rent, phone bill, cable TV, utility, homeowner association fees and sales tax also seldom go down. All these point to a sticky inflation. Without massive government stimulus to press the gas pedal, subdued growth is on the horizon.
However, the stock market is forward looking. Investors already see an "invisible foot" on the accelerator and begin buying in the dip. On balance, I’m bullish about risky assets, but would consider protecting my investments carefully.
The inversed yield curve is a proven and tested signal of a potential recession. The 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread is at -64 bps after the Fed rate decision. The yield spread turned negative last July and stayed below zero in the last seven months.
Major crises could break out unexpectedly, crashing our party. The year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict could intensify, tensions in the Taiwan Strait could escalate, and the US government might not be able to avoid a national debt default.
A Hedged Position on Stock Index Futures
We could consider using the CME Micro E-mini S&P futures to establish a bullish position on the U.S. stock market. The June contract MESM3 is currently quoted at 4177, which is 58 points above the cash index. To protect my position from any adverse market movement, an out-of-the-money put option could be placed at the 3950-strike. If you are more pessimistic, a lower strike of 3840 may be considered.
The benefit of futures over cash index ETFs lies with the leverage. With a smaller margin deposit upfront, investment return could be amplified if the market moves in your favor. The downside is that the loss will also ramp up quickly if the market moves against you.
Put options protect us from any downfall below the strike price. Unlike futures, the maximum loss from a long options position is the premium you have paid upfront. A combination of long futures and long put options is, in theory, limited downside with unlimited upside.
The risk and return tradeoff are asymmetry in this case. As a result, you can have the cake and eat it too!
Happy trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Strategy Coding E02: Primer: TradingView vs Real WorldCoding a strategy that will work in the real world isn't easy, and we should have our expectations set accordingly.
In this video we will cover:
Human trade execution.
PineScript Shortcomings.
What is an "Ideal Strategy"?
Back-testing.
Alerts aren't always tradable events.
Please leave any questions in the comment section.
Not another market timing theory....Okay, I get it. Timing the market < time in the market, but I can't argue with the results of this strategy. Here we're going to take a look at a timing model using the popular MACD / MA Cross combination, with a dash of stop loss and a pinch of momentum indication, so let's dive in.
This is "close" to what I use for my personal indicator, although done on a different platform. A while back, I took on the challenge of learning Pine Script for my first coding experience. A lot of copy/paste was used. I published an "Advanced MACD/MA Cross" indicator, with the intent on building it into this strategy.
So yes, first of all, the main signal is a combo MACD / MA Cross on the S&P 500 index ( SP:SPX ). Another important thing, likely the most important thing of all, is this strategy relies on the LOGARITHMIC movement of the S&P. This is very important. When looking at the log movement of a stock or index or whatever, you go from looking at the REAL PRICE to looking at MOMENTUM. In my years of trying to find a decent momentum indicator, I found just looking at the logarithmic movement was best.
Settings for MA Cross are fast 200 TEMA, slow 650 DEMA. I've found it best if the MA types are different (slow MA is also a slower "type") when looking at logarithmic movement. For instance, if your slow MA is an SMA, fast should be EMA. If slow MA is EMA, fast should be DEMA, so on and so forth. This will cause the slow MA to vertical shift down during bull markets and up during bear markets. The settings provided seem to give a good overall indicator of general market movements, but usually it's slow to respond to market entries. My MACD looks at exponential moving averages of 200 and 500 on the S&P, and then applies a 100 day EMA signal line. This provides good entry points in general.
When evaluating these long term trends, sometimes, unexpected things happen in the market that give potential to lose a lot of money. This strategy also implements a stop loss and market "bounce" finder. Stop loss is straight forward. If the strategy detects that the log movement of S&P has dropped by 10 points, a "bond market alert" will trigger. Conversely, the "bounce" finder looks at log movement of S&P from a rolling 17 day period, and if it's moved upwards by 10 points, a "stock market alert" will trigger.
The strategy tester is pretty good, although the equity holds a flat line through the Bond market. This is where a true portfolio backtest would come into play. Look at the list of trades from the strategy tester, input them into a spreadsheet or whatever, and see how this movement indicator would work for your favorite stock over the past several years. Chances are, it'll work pretty well, and a lot better than a buy and hold strategy. While looking, you may want to investigate leveraged long term treasury bonds ( AMEX:TMF ) during the indicated downtime, or index LETF's during the uptrends ( AMEX:UPRO , NASDAQ:TQQQ , etc.), depending on your risk tolerance.
The chart above shows the S&P compared to Vanguard's Long Term Treasury ETF ( NASDAQ:VGLT ), as well as market entry and exit positions, in the first pane. Second pane is the Logarithmic movement of the S&P, and the strategies MA Cross lines. Third pane is MACD (MACD MA's not shown for clarity). Fourth pane shows the "bounce" indicator. Strategy tester goes all the way back to 1950, or the beginning of daily data for the S&P 500. You'll see a few trades missed the mark, but the profit factor is important to note (and keep in mind, this doesn't take into effect BONDS!)
P.S. disclaimer, this isn't 100% exactly what I use for my personal market entry / exit indicators. My personal bounce entry and stop-loss methodologies are slightly different, and I also track an underlying portfolio that will initiate a stop loss if neither stocks or bonds are working (i.e. 2022). And also, I'm not a financial professional, this isn't financial advice, yada yada yada.
P.P.S. please forgive me if the formatting doesn't end up right here, never published a strategy before!