The dollar must continue to weaken for XAUUSD to move higher.Most investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) at next week's policy meeting.
After four consecutive 75-basis-point rate hikes, the U.S. central bank slowed the pace of tightening to 50 basis points last month.
With lower interest rates translating into lower returns on interest-bearing assets such as government bonds, investors may prefer zero-yielding gold.
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Strategy!
How to become a trader? (Part 1)How to become a trader? (Part 1)
1. What is trading?
We all know what trading is. Almost all of us had someone around us who was trading, or maybe we heard the names of people like Warren Buffett or Elon Musk. But what we don't know is that trading is not just opening a chart and drawing a line and finally buying a stock or something. Trust me, It is more complicated than that.
In this market, for 95% of people, there will be nothing but financial loss. But those 5% are the ones who get the secret of trading. You probably won't recognize those 5%, and they won't want to introduce themselves either. But if you persevere and put in enough effort and a lot of time, and then you go through more persistence and difficulty and loss of capital and disappointment, it is possible, just possible, that you will become one of those 5%.
Come with me to find out what we should do.
2. Where do we start?
An important question will arise for all people who are new to trading. "Where to start?"
In the first few days, you will see a lot of stuff. And for sure, you will be confused like me. There are many things to learn. YouTube, books, even private training. But what do you get in the end? Well, you find a trading method and trade with it for some time. Then you start losing money. Then you go to another method and you lose again. And this cycle continues like this (this is the first hard part that I mentioned above). Later, you will learn about capital management and the psychology of trading. And by combining these three things and, of course, enough time, you will move towards becoming a trader. Therefore, becoming a trader is not something that can be achieved overnight and more importantly, it is not something that can be given to you. You have to achive it.
3. Strategy
The first place you should start is formulating a strategy. Some people think that everything boils down to strategy. So when they can't make money, they try to find a more sophisticated strategy. But this is wrong. Strategy is just the beginning. I will talk more about this later. But before that, let's talk about the components of strategy.
We can divide each strategy into 5 parts: Trend, Area of Value (AOV), Trigger, Stop loss (SL) and Target point (TP).
A. Trend: The first and most important part. Trend means the next move will be up or down. Your tool to find the trend can be your eyes, trend line and different indicators. The most important thing to learn here is that no one knows which way the price will move. All we know and get through our tools is which direction the price is "more probable". The second point is that the trend is not about the past movement, but it's representative of the next movement! So don't mix them up.
B. Area of Value (AOV): Let's assume that the price of a stock is going to increase, and in other words, it wants to find an up trend. Where will your entry area be? There are useful tools such as trend line, moving, Fibonacci, candlestick, support and resistance areas and etc. for this.
C. Trigger: You will need a confirmation to enter when the price is in the value zone. I recommend you to use multi-time frame and look for entry in lower time-frames. The tools are the same as before.
D. Stop loss: Your entire strategy depends on this component. Most people do not use the limit because they do not know how to use it. And they are also afraid of losing. The best traders also make mistakes and control their mistakes by limiting their losses. The limit of loss is your friend. Learn how to make the most of it.
E. Target point: We humans have a good tolerance in the face of difficulties. But can we stop ourselves from seeing profit? The second stage is difficulty, patience and tolerance to achieve your desired profit. At the same time, knowing that the conditions may change, and you may not even get the profit you have now.
There are more complex strategies that combine all of the above. Like Elliot, Ichimoku and etc.
The important thing about the strategy is that a super complex strategy is not necessarily better than a simple strategy. Sometimes a simple trend line can give you a profit that dozens of complicated indicators cannot give you. I am not saying that complexity is worse. In fact, the more complicated it is, the more accurate your position and understanding of the subject will be. But the problem is that our mind does not have the ability to analyze all the possibilities. That's why, don't look for a super-complicated method produced by company X. Choose the simplest method that works for you, and you can communicate with it more easily.
Each of those 5% people choose a method and become a master in it. So it doesn't matter what the method is. It is important that it is profitable. It matters how you implement it.
In the next part, I will talk about capital management and market psychology.
Good luck.
How to auto-execute TradingView alerts on exchangeIf you have your own strategy in TradingView, you can set up opening trades on the exchange in a couple of clicks.
Next, you’ll see an example of how we set up alerts in 5 minutes, and how orders were opened and closed on the exchange. To do this, we will create alerts and a bot for alerts on our platform.
Step 1. Set the alert parameters.
Go to our terminal, select the Algotrading section → Trading Robots → Add strategy button.
You will see an interface for creating and customizing your bot, where you need to perform the Basic settings and proceed to setting the parameters for sending signals to the system.
To do this, go to the Sending signals block.
The TradingView signal source is already selected.
Copy the Request URL.
On the right side of the window, we see the code with the request parameters. You can add other parameters with checkboxes, we have added Stop Loss and Take Profit. Copy and save the code.
Step 2. Launch the bot.
Next, find the created bot in the All robots section and launch it in Work trading mode according to the manuals in the terminal.
Step 3. Set up an alert in TradingView.
Go to TradingView, open the Alerts section and set up an alert, for example, for opening an order (Buy) based on a simple indicator - in our case, Crossing.
Paste the code that we got in Step 1 in the Message field.
Paste the request URL we got in Step 1 in the Webhook URL field and Save.
The alert has been successfully created and is active on TradingView in the Alerts section.
Step 4. Monitor the orders.
The alert triggers and ... Go to the Alerts log, where we see a notification about executed alerts from TradingView.
We can check in the bot on our platform, open the Trades tab - we see open orders.
And we see that alert orders are open on the exchange.
Since we set Stop Loss and Take Profit, the orders were not only opened, but also closed. In the platform we can find deals, on the exchange we can find orders with the Sell parameter.
We hope that now trading with TradingView will become even easier. We will release new and more detailed articles for you on using webhooks so that the strategy created here works 24/7 without your participation.
Gold daily = all scenario on gold for coming weeklook like gold want touch 1965 , then it can go down
gold daily chart technical say gold must go down to Fino 50% area ( I think red scenario will happens)
let see gold futures and Cot data (big banks net open order)
AC indicator was red,but price move up and break high yesterday true? so its sell signal now switch to buy
STRONGLY ADVICE DONT PICK SELL WITOUT PINBAR VERFY,,,wait pinbar comes on higher time then pick sell with SL on pinbar high
ALERT= as predict 2 week ago on weekly chart gold upper target is 2350-2400$ so be careful from sell,never remove SL
www.tradingview.com
wish you win
A sense of debtIn the previous two posts, we explored how assets are grouped in a company's balance sheet.
Part 1: Balance sheet: taking the first steps
Part 2: Assets I prioritize
Now let's deal with Liabilities and Stockholders' equity. Let me remind you that these are the sources of funds that give a company assets. And indeed, with what funds can a company have assets? Either with its own funds (stockholders' equity), or with funds borrowed (liabilities). For simplicity, we will call them Debts and Equity.
Debts can vary in maturity, so we've divided them into two categories in the balance sheet: Current liabilities and Non-current liabilities .
Current liabilities include:
- Current debts are debts that need to be paid back within a year after they are incurred. Do you remember our master took a loan from the bank to make a large batch of boots? That loan will be recorded in this item (assuming the loan is up to one year in repayment).
- Accounts payable (debts to suppliers of goods and services). You can borrow money not only from the bank, but also from your suppliers, for example. In other words he is giving you raw materials now, but is ready to accept payment later. Such debts are reflected in this item.
- Accrued liabilities (Provisions for future expenses on unpaid bills in the form of wages, rent, taxes). The word "debt" is in many ways synonymous with the word "liability." A company may have many such liabilities: payment of wages, rent and taxes. In essence, these are also debts to be paid during the year. For convenience, cash reserves are set aside for them. They are spent at the moment when the payment is due. Such reserves are recorded in this item.
- Other current liabilities . Debts or liabilities with a maturity of up to one year that are not included in the categories above are shown here.
Non-current liabilities include:
- Long term debt - these are debts that need to be paid back more than one year after they are incurred. If our master had borrowed from the bank for two years, such a loan would fall into this category.
- Deferred taxes liabilities (Provision for taxes to be paid in a future period). Tax rates are subject to change, and new taxes may come into effect in a year or more. But even now, the company can set aside money for future taxes.
- Other long term liabilities . Here are debts or liabilities with a maturity of more than one year that are not included in the categories above.
In short, debts are loans taken by the company, provisions for tax liabilities, and debts to suppliers.
The amount of debt is a very important indicator in the fundamental analysis of a company. On the one hand, the mere presence of debt is not scary, because it demonstrates that banks trust the company and give it loans for development. On the other hand, a substantial amount of debt can cause serious problems and losses in the period of weak sales of goods or services. Banks are unlikely to suspend interest charges on loans if a company is doing poorly. This means the company will incur expenses in the form of interest on loans that are not offset by revenue. Also a reminder that if a company goes bankrupt, the owners of the stock get the assets of that company only after all debts have been settled . If the debts are so large that they exceed the value of all the property, the shareholders get nothing. For these reasons, I select companies with small debt loads.
What liabilities do I focus on?
- Current debt;
- Accounts payable;
- Long term debt.
For me, these are the items that most clearly reflect the company's debt situation.
In the next post, we will conclude our study of the balance sheet and look at the basic source of assets, which is Equity. See you soon!
WFC Wells Fargo Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the WFC Wells Fargo options chain, i would buy the $42.5 strike price Puts with
2023-3-17 expiration date for about
$2.14 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Assets I prioritizeIn the previous post Balance sheet: taking the first steps , we began parsing the balance sheet of the imaginary workshop and focused on assets. Today, I suggest looking at what types of tangible and intangible property are classified as current assets and what types are classified as non-current assets.
Current assets contain the following items:
- Cash and cash equivalents - in our case we can include a safe with money, which, in general, corresponds to the company's cash in its current bank accounts.
- Net receivables - here we would include the IOU from a friend. That is everything that clients owe the company for goods or services.
- Inventory - this includes a bag with leather, rubber and thread. That is all raw materials, from which goods are made, as well as stocks of finished goods in warehouses.
- Other current assets - this can include other current assets that do not belong to the previous items.
Non-current assets include the following items:
- Net property, plant and equipment - we include a garage, table, chair, sewing machine and tools. Depreciation is deducted from the original cost of the property when reporting it. Depreciation is the cost to repair and renew the property.
- Equity and other investments - in our example, this would include oil company stocks (and in general, any company investment in stocks or bonds of other companies).
- Goodwill - let's say our company wants to buy another company and is willing to pay $11 million for it. The assets of the other company are $10 million, and the debts that our company will have to pay for the other company are $2 million. So the assets net of debt are $8 million. After the purchase, the assets and debts of that company will become the assets and debts of our company. So, the difference between the purchase amount of $11 million and the net assets of $8 million is a goodwill equal to $3 million. For our workshop, this item is not relevant, as it didn't buy any company. Nevertheless, remember that goodwill is the difference between the purchase price of another company and its net assets.
- Intangible assets - this can include the value of the customer base in the master's phone book, as well as any other assets that have no tangible basis (such as purchased trademarks).
- Other long term assets - this item includes other non-current assets that don't belong to the previous items.
Once we understand which asset belongs to which item, its value (or rather, the sum of the values of all assets belonging to this item) is written in the balance sheet. For example, let's say we've determined that the Inventory item includes leather, rubber, and thread. The accountant adds up the value of the leather, rubber, and thread and writes the total amount in monetary terms against the Inventory item. This is how the numbers appear in the balance sheet.
Now let's discuss which balance sheet items we should pay attention to during the fundamental analysis of assets. I have formulated the following rule for myself: pay attention to the assets that are directly related to the sale of the company's goods or services .
If a company does not sell its goods or services well, its bank account balance will shrink, huge inventories of unsold goods and raw materials will accumulate in its warehouses, and accounts receivable (customers debt) will grow. The fact is that when sales are bad, the company is ready to lend out goods as debt.
If sales are going well, then, on the contrary, the money in the account will grow, and accounts receivable and inventory will start to shrink. All other assets can influence sales only indirectly, so I don't consider them.
Thus, I have identified my priority assets :
- Cash and cash equivalents;
- Net receivables;
- Inventory.
As you can see, they are all quick current assets. Non-current assets only indirectly affect sales, so they are not a priority benchmark for me.
In the next post, we'll start looking at the right side of our disclosed book, called the Balance sheet. That's where the company's liabilities and equity belong. See you next time!
Donchian Channel Indicator: The Complete A Trader's GuideChannel forex trading strategies are very popular among traders. This fact is because the channel within which the quotes move is regularly formed on any instrument, any time frame, and can be used in a variety of ways (breakout strategy, rebound strategy, etc.) as a ready-made trading tactic.
There are Linear Progression Channels, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Channels, Envelopes, Ichimoku Channels, and Donchian Channel, which is created based on the Donchian Channel Indicator. It will become the main character of our today`s article. Let us consider in more detail the principle of its use and the rules for placing orders.
The Donchian Channel Indicator: Description And Main Signals
Richard Donchian is one of the legendary traders of the last century. He was the originator of the Turtles trading system. As it often happens, the peak of his popularity and success came to him late, at a respectable age. Donchian was a true workaholic, giving much energy to trading and creating effective trading theories. His works were used by a lot of traders, some of which were included in the top ten of the best market professionals, for example, Linda Raschke.
Initially, the Donchian Channel was developed for trading by breakout strategies when the price goes out of the channel and crosses one of its borders. As a rule, a new powerful trend starts at such moments.
What Does The Donchian Price Channel Look Like?
The algorithm looks like two curves, one of which corresponds to the upper limit of the corridor and the other - to the lower one. The upper curve shows the price maximums for the selected time period. The lower boundary shows the levels of price lows, also for a certain period of time. When price minimums/maximums are updated, the lines are rearranged and the channel width decreases or increases depending on the market situation. Another broken dotted line runs in the center of the channel.
The price position relative to this line shows the market trend:
When the price breaks out of the middle line of the channel from the bottom up and rises higher, it indicates the bulls' advantage in the market. Price is trending upwards.
When the price crosses the middle line of the channel from top to bottom and goes lower, it indicates a bearish advantage in the market. The price goes downward.
The Donchian Channel is also called a volatility indicator because it uses chart extrema in its calculations. The tool looks a bit like Bollinger Waves, but its lines are smoother and do not react as strongly to price changes as Bollinger Bands lines.
Channel Boundaries Signals
According to the indicator, trades can be opened at the moments of a breakout as well as a rebound from the channel borders.
Signals arising when price breaks out a channel edge are called trend signals:
If the price breaks out the upper level of the Donchian Channel from the bottom up and the breakout candle closes above it, this is a buy signal. An uptrend begins;
If the price crosses the lower level of the Donchian Channel from above downwards and the breakout candlestick is closed under it, this is a sell signal. The downtrend begins.
The breakout can be not only a true breakout when the boundary is crossed by the candle's body and the candle closes outside the range but also a shadow one.
It can be called a shadow breakout, which was made by the candlestick's shadow, but the candlestick itself closed inside the Donchian Channel.
The shadow breakout occurs before the price reverses after the rebound from the channel's boundary:
If the shadow of the candlestick breaks out the lower boundary, and then the price returns to the channel and closes inside it, this is a signal of an upward reversal. You can place a buy order;
If the shadow of the candlestick crosses the upper boundary, and then the price goes back inside the channel and closes there, this is a signal of a downward reversal. You may enter into a sell trade.
A shadow breakout usually indicates a price reversal from the broken-out boundary.
Price may not only break out the channel boundary but also rebound from it. In this case, the price moves inside the channel, and then, having touched one of its boundaries reverses in the other direction.
Signals when the price rebounds from the Donchian Channel boundaries:
If the price rebounds from the upper boundary of the channel, this is a sell signal;
If the price rebounds from the lower boundary of the channel, this is a signal to buy.
Changing the channel width also indicates a change in the market situation. For example, if the Donchian Channel becomes narrow, it indicates a flat. The market is calm at the moment, the volatility is low. When the price extremums are updated, the channel starts expanding, indicating the increase in market volatility:
If the channel expands as a result of updating price lows, you can open a sell trade;
If the channel expands as a result of updating price highs, you can open a buy trade.
Even though the Donchian Channel is quite an effective tool, it is not recommended to open positions only by its signals. It is necessary to use additional tools for signal confirmation.
Calculation Of The Donchian Channel Indicator
To plot the Donchian Channel, we should use the absolute minimum and maximum of the quote for the definite period. The upper boundary of the channel is drawn through the specified maximum, and the lower – through the minimum for the same period.
In the time period, only the number of candlesticks is always considered. For example, period 10 for the D1 chart is equal to 10 days, for the H1 chart – to 10 hours, and for the M5 – to 50 minutes.
In other words, a breakout of a 10-day channel on the D1 chart means that the 10-day maximum is broken out when the upper boundary of the channel is broken out, or the 10-day minimum when the lower boundary of the channel is broken out. In other words, the upper boundary is equal to the maximum value of the quote for the selected period, the lower boundary – to the minimum value, and the average boundary is equal to the sum of the upper and lower bounds divided by 2.
Donchian himself used the value of the channel period 20 for daily charts because it equals the average number of working days in a month. But we can experiment with the period value, considering that we can trade in any time frame. The most popular and well-proven variants are 18, 24, and 55.
Donchian Channel + RSI Trading Strategy
Let's consider an example of a simple trading strategy based on the Donchian Channel and RSI oscillator signals.
Chart time frame – H1. Currency pair – any currency pair with average or high volatility.
Positions may be opened on the rebound of the price from the boundaries of the Donchian Channel. The RSI indicator will confirm the rebound signal, coming out of the oversold or overbought area.
A long position may be entered under the following conditions:
The price reaches the lower boundary of the Donchian Channel, fails to break it out, and turns in the opposite direction. Either there was a shadow breakout and the price returned to the channel limits.
RSI exits the oversold area, breaking out the 30 level from the bottom to the top.
Take Profit should be set on the upper curve of the Donchian range. Stop Loss can be placed outside the lower boundary of the Donchian Channel.
A sell order may be made under opposite conditions:
The price reached the upper boundary of the Donchian Channel. It fails to cross the upper boundary of the Donchian Channel, it rebounds and turns in the opposite direction. The second option - a shadow breakout occurs and the chart returns to the channel.
The oscillator has left the overbought area, breaking out the line of 70 downwards.
Fixing Take Profit should be set at the lower border of the Donchian Channel. A protective Stop-Loss can be placed outside the upper boundary of the Donchian Channel.
Donchian Channel + MACD Trading Strategy
This strategy involves opening a trade at the Donchian Channel boundaries breakout moments. Trading will be done based on the trend. To confirm the signals of border breakout a trend oscillator MACD is used.
The time frame of the chart is M15. The asset to be traded should have medium or high volatility.
It is possible to open a long position, provided that:
The Donchian Channel begins to widen in the direction of the uptrend. The maximums of the chart begin to increase sequentially;
The candlestick breaks out the upper boundary of the Donchian Channel and closed above it;
The MACD indicator is above zero, and the histogram is increasing.
If all three conditions coincide, it is possible to open a buy order. Stop Loss is placed behind the local minimum. Profit can be fixed by Take Profit, calculated using the formula SL*2, or manually when the opposite signal is received.
You may enter a short position when receiving the following signals:
Donchian Channel corridor begins to expand in the direction of the downtrend; The price minimums start to decrease consistently;
The candlestick crosses the lower level of the channel and closes under it.
The MACD indicator is below zero, the histogram is decreasing.
If all three signals coincide, one can open a short position right away. Stop Loss is placed behind the local maximum. The profit can be fixed by Take-Profit, equal to at least two Stop Losses. You can also fix the profit manually by closing the order when the signal to the contrary appears.
Advantages And Disadvantages Of The Donchian Channel Indicator
The Donchian Channel has its own characteristics. Among the advantages, we can note its simplicity and efficiency. The indicator consists of only three lines, which are superimposed over the chart of price movements.
The Donchian Channel gives sufficiently high-quality signals. However, it may sometimes be wrong in low time frames, as there is market noise on such charts. Therefore, it is recommended to combine it with other indicators.
Donchian Channel perfectly combines with oscillators, such as RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, MACD, etc. While trading price breakouts, the Donchian Channel is combined with trend indicators - Parabolic SAR, Power Fuse, MACD, Moving Average, etc.
Conclusion
Although the Donchian Channel signals look simple, they have already proven to be effective. Understanding the basis of channel formation, you can make your own "add-ons" to the strategy, such as using the MA as an additional indicator, etc. To better filter, the signals, try combining them on the chart with other indicators and oscillators.
Trade recap: Making 3.4R from shorting the US-China DivergenceCapped this short at 3.4R using our strategy as we get significant DXY reversal heading into this week's US Retail Sales and Building Permits news. No trades for now as we patiently sit on our hands for the next signal (preferably non-USD for this week, at least).
Balance sheet: taking the first stepsToday we are going to start learning about fundamental analysis of companies. In my opinion, this is the basic skill you should have when picking stocks to invest in.
Once again, the main principle of the strategy I follow is to pick outstanding companies and buy their stocks at a discounted price.
You may have noticed that first-class products are occasionally discounted in stores, but not for long, because such products are quickly swept off the shelves, and almost the next day the price is again without a discount. Exactly the same strategy is applicable to the stock market. Now, fundamental analysis is a method for picking outstanding companies (that is, companies with strong fundamentals).
How can we tell if a company has a strong foundation or not? There is only one way - by analyzing its financial statements. Every listed company has to disclose this information publicly on its website. In other words, we don't have to extract that information - it is publicly available. You can also find it on TradingView and see the data in dynamics.
What is the content of this information? The company publishes three reports : balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement.
The balance sheet, like the order book , can be presented as an open book. The left side of the book lists the company's assets and their valuation in monetary terms, and the right side lists the company's liabilities and equity , and their valuation in monetary terms.
What are company assets ? These are everything that belongs to the company: buildings, equipment, trademark, shares of other companies, cash in the cash register. In general, all tangible and intangible property of a company are assets.
What are liabilities and equity of a company? These are the sources of funds that gave rise to the assets. For example, if you bought a computer for $1000 with your savings, then the computer is an asset, and your own savings are equity. If a friend lent you $100, and you put the money in your pocket, the money in your pocket is an asset, and the debt to your friend is a liability. Based on these examples, you can make an imaginary balance sheet:
As you can see, the entry in the balance sheet is the name of the asset, liability or equity and their monetary value. Assets, liabilities and equity are inextricably linked, so the sum of assets is always equal to the sum of liabilities and equity .
If we were to write every asset in this way on the balance sheet of a large company, it would turn into an endless book of hundreds of pages. However, if we look at the balance sheets of huge corporations, they can fit on a single sheet of paper. This is due to the fact that over time invented to group the same type of balance sheet items. Let's look at how the company's balance sheet items are grouped:
Don't be frightened. Now we will try to digest this table with the help of an example we are already familiar with. Let's think back to our master cobbler , specifically to the period when he was just starting out.
Let's assume what exactly he had at that time: a garage, a table, a chair, a sewing machine, tools, a bag with leather and rubber, thread, a safe with money, a phone book with clients' contact information, a IOU from his friend, and oil company stocks.
I have now listed the assets of our master, or should I say, of his workshop. I should note that what is listed here is exactly what is directly related to his business. Even the money in the safe, the debt from his friend, and the oil company shares came about because of the existence of the business. Let's say the master's apartment or the bicycle he rides in the park are not assets, because they don't belong to the workshop. They belong to the master, but not to his business.
Let's categorize the workshop's assets into groups. There are two big groups: Current assets and Non-current assets .
How should you distinguish them? The general rule is this: Current assets are what a company's product is made of, and what can turn into money in the near future, so they can be called quick assets . Non-current assets are where and with what we create the product, and what can turn into money not so soon (so they can be called long-term assets ).
So, here we go:
- A garage, a table, a chair are where we create a product, so a long-term (non-current) asset.
- A sewing machine, tools - this is what we use to create a product - a long-term (non-current) asset.
- A bag with leather and rubber and thread is what a product is made from - a quick (current) asset.
- A safe with money is already real money - a quick (current) asset.
- A phone book with customer numbers - it's hard to sell it to someone quickly, such assets are also called intangible assets and are placed in long-term (non-current) assets.
- IOU from a friend, i.e. a friend bought boots from a master, but can pay only after receiving his salary - a quick (current) asset.
- Shares of an oil company - let's assume that a customer once paid for the boots with them - a long-term (non-current) asset.
So, we've just categorized the master's assets into two groups: current assets (quick assets) and non-current assets (long-term assets). In the next post, we'll break down the components of these two large groups. See you then!
Could we get a $10 drop in OilIf we get a good NFP number tomorrow, does that mean the US jobs market is strong? What will the Fed do? Raise rates, increase QT?
Fundamentally we should be seeing lower GDP, lower wages, lower demand and with that lower Oil.
Technically, we have higher GDP, stable wages, mixed changes in demand and lower oil.
This EOD strategy has been set, and now we just forget until we get to TP 1. Then for the remainder of the position, we get to BE and start trailling.
Todays stronger dollar on the back of ADP numbers, will repeat tomorrow on strong NFP numbers, or reverse if NFP comes in under the consensus.
Lower oil, on stronger USD, is also very bullish for Japan's economy as they are an energy importer. You will have to pick a side if trading USDJPY but it could be messy.
SPY - basic strategy review for big profits Some of the top strategies I use. But I finally narrowed it down to using only specific one extremely profitable setup that I am currently running sea trials on. More on that below.
"Support and Resistance Bounce"
This strategy involves buying when the price reaches a level of support and selling when it reaches a level of resistance. The 21 moving average can be used to identify these levels by looking for instances where the price has bounced off the average in the past in confluence with the S/L level
- Use Fibonacci retracements or trend lines to identify key levels of support and resistance
- Look for divergence between the price and an oscillator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which could indicate a reversal.
“Breakout through Support or Resistance"
This strategy involves buying or selling when the price breaks through a level of support or resistance
- Look for a high volume of trades at the point of breakout
- Looking for a bullish or bearish candlestick pattern at the point of breakout
"Moving Average Crossover"
This strategy involves buying when the 21 moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average, and selling when it crosses below. This can be used to identify changes in the trend.
- Look for a bullish or bearish crossover of the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator
- Look for a bullish or bearish candlestick pattern at the point of crossover as confluence. Candles are a language. Become fluent in candle psychology and you will learn how to win.
"Trend Following with Moving Average"
This strategy involves buying when the price is above the 21 moving average and selling when it is below. Larger gap equals more momentum. This can be used to identify the overall trend of the market.
- Look for bullish or bearish divergence between the price and an oscillator, such as the RSI
- Look for a bullish or bearish candle pattern at the point of entry either above or below moving average. Pin bars are my favorite! Pin up off of moving average when above calls. Pin down when below puts.
"Support and Resistance Reversal"
This strategy involves buying when the price reaches a level of resistance and then subsequently breaks through it, or selling when the price reaches a level of support and then subsequently falls through it. This can be used to identify potential reversal points in the market.
- Looking for a high volume of trades at the point of reversal
- Looking for bullish or bearish candle pattern at the point of reversal
- Use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to confirm the overbought or oversold conditions
- Watching for other indicators for example Bollinger Bands to constrict showing consolidation before reversal.
Or my favorite strategy of all is this: No indicators. Gap fills off of key levels. Just price action alone. Area of value with close stops equals low risk trades with high profit potential.
Trade safe! Have fun! Like, share and follow for more!!!
Nifty trade ideas.Nifty almost was able to be inside the upward channel until bears overpowered bulls. Levels which we are keeping ours eyes are still in play. Tomorrow if price is able to stay above 18000 and breaks resistance of 18155 we can expect price to hit 18250-300 but if price opens below 18000 which also happens to be tomorrow's CPR and is unable to break through then we can expect price to hit as low as 17900-800.. Overall am expecting the price to somehow be back into the upward trend channel it was following before..