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WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the start of the reversal on WAL: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 65usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2024-9-20, for a premium of approximately $1.60. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:WALShort
by TopgOptions
USOIL | The Sell Off is nearWTI crude oil prices have shown a downward trend in recent sessions, falling for three consecutive days. Currently, WTI stands around the $80.70 region, recording a daily loss of about 0.40%. Despite this decline, the price remains above the overnight swing low, suggesting a lack of conviction among sellers. Factors Influencing Prices Chinese Economy: Economic Growth Data: Official data released on Monday showed that China's economy grew by 4.7% in the second quarter of 2024, down from 5.3% in the first quarter. This has fueled concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy, the world's largest oil importer, and a consequent decrease in fuel demand. Impact on the Oil Market: Concerns about Chinese demand are a key factor exerting downward pressure on crude oil prices. Strength of the US Dollar (USD): Dollar Recovery: The US dollar has gained traction, recovering from a more than three-month low touched on Monday. A stronger dollar makes USD-denominated oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thereby reducing demand. Monetary Policy Outlook: The growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve might start a rate-cutting cycle as early as September could limit further dollar gains, partially mitigating the negative effect on oil prices. Supply Concerns: Middle East Conflicts: Concerns about potential supply disruptions due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to support oil prices. This factor could limit further losses in the short term. Forecasts and Expectations Price Range: WTI seems to remain confined within a familiar range maintained over the past two weeks, with prices oscillating around the $80.70-$81.30 region. Awaiting External Impulses: Market participants are now waiting for US retail sales data to find new drivers that could influence prices. Need for Confirmation: To position for a further extension of the recent pullback from levels near $84.00, it would be prudent to wait for more convincing selling signals.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD is ready to reach $2500 before the crash!Current Overview Gold (XAU/USD) has regained traction, trading in positive territory slightly above $2,420 after dipping towards $2,400 at the beginning of the week. Technical Analysis Daily Chart: The bullish outlook for XAU/USD remains strong despite a retreat from intraday highs. The daily chart shows that the pair is rallying well above bullish moving averages. Technical indicators are gaining upward momentum and approaching overbought readings, with no signs of reversal. 4-Hour Chart: In the near term, XAU/USD might face challenges in extending its gains. Technical indicators are retreating from overbought readings with uneven strength but remain above the bullish 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $2,400. Key Levels Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the recent high of $2,439. If XAU/USD surpasses this level, it could test the year-to-date high of $2,450. Further gains could target the $2,500 level. Support Levels: Initial support is at $2,400. Market Sentiment US Dollar Dynamics: Demand for the US Dollar initially increased following the weekend news of an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. However, the Greenback quickly lost ground as investors speculated that a potential Trump election win might lead to looser fiscal policies. Fed Policy Outlook: Moody’s Credit Rating Agency predicts that the Federal Reserve could start easing monetary policy as early as this month, with potential rate cuts of 50-75 basis points in 2024 and an additional 100-125 basis points by 2025. This dovish outlook has bolstered gold prices, as lower rates make non-interest-bearing assets like gold more attractive. Economic Data: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in weaker than expected, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, as reflected by falling US Treasury bond yields. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a seven-month low of 66.0 in July, missing expectations, which further supports the case for rate cuts. Additional Influences Global Factors: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) decided to halt gold purchases in June, as it did in May. By the end of June, China held 72.80 million troy ounces of gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
HOW-TO: Cyato Bands █  Overview Welcome to the getting started page dedicated to my automated trading strategy Cyatophilum Bands, which is in continuous development. The strategy principle is to identify consolidation areas, catch breakouts and ride the trend as long as possible. █  Trade examples Breakout from Tight Consolidation Price consolidates within a narrow range and identifies the breakout point. False Breakout Avoidance Filter out noise from the market by incorporating volume, trend and range filters. Multi-Timeframe Analysis Set the Bands time frame higher than the current chart to perform MTF analysis. Reversal Confirmation In the strategy direction settings, you can choose to go long, short or both. Profitable Trend Continuation A cool feature the take profit has is that it gets disabled when the trend is strong and clear, allowing to play safe in a ranging market, while maximizing profits in strong trends. █  Indicator settings Bands Settings The band configuration settings allow you to create any kind of band, my favorite is the Donchian channels, but you can also create Bollinger and Kelter kinds of bands. Filter Settings The entry is triggered by a band breakout, but only that is not enough to create a solid strategy. Adjust the consolidation area, set a volume, range and trend filter to strengthen your entry. Stop Loss Settings Easily create a stop loss system using %, ATR, pips or AUTO calculation modes. Add a trailing stop using ATR or Classic modes. (more modes can be added upon request) Take Profit Settings Set a take profit system using also different modes and the amazing feature to disable take profit during strong trends. Backtest Settings Backtest quickly using the information panel. See if you beat buy and hold and ATH buy and hold, as well as other stats like daily return. █  Backtesting results & preconfigured charts BTC/USDT Snapshot: Chart : www.tradingview.com (Access Required) ETH/USDT Snapshot: Chart : www.tradingview.com (Access Required) BNB/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com (Access Required) SOL/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com (Access Required) ADA/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com AVAX/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com LINK/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com MATIC/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com IMX/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com █ SCRIPT ACCESS Indicator and automation tools access can be purchased on my website. Links in my signature below.
Education
by cyatophilum
EURUSD heading towards 1.10!Current Overview EUR/USD is defensive below 1.0900 in the Asian session on Monday, edging lower amid risk aversion following the shooting incident at a Trump rally. This event has bolstered the US Dollar due to its safe-haven appeal. The pair's focus remains on US politics and upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials. Technical Analysis Support Levels: The first support is at 1.0840-1.0850. Further support is at 1.0800. Resistance Levels: If EUR/USD rises above 1.0900 and confirms this level as support, it could target 1.0950 and then 1.1000. Market Sentiment US Inflation Data: Recent soft inflation data from the United States has put downward pressure on the US Dollar. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis, while core CPI increased by only 0.1%. Both readings were below market expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged in September has declined to below 10% from over 20% before the CPI data release. Additional Influences US Political Climate: The recent incident during a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where former President Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt, has increased risk aversion and supported the US Dollar. US Economic Data: The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to 2.6% year-on-year in June from the previous revised 2.4%, above the expected 2.3%. Core PPI increased to 3.0% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 66.0 in July from 68.2 in June, missing expectations of 68.5. The UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 2.9% from the previous 3.0%. Fed Outlook: Analysts from Fitch suggest that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might cut interest rates sooner than expected due to concerns about the labor market. Fed officials are likely to be cautious about additional weaknesses in the labor market. Eurozone Outlook: Eurozone officials expect pricing pressures to remain stable throughout the year, reducing expectations for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a cautious approach, highlighting uncertainties in the growth outlook.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Bitcoin’s Pivotal Moment: Key Technical and Fundamental InsightsTechnical Analysis Neutral: 1 - Price action has been fluctuating in a falling channel from around the 1 March 2024 and appears to be respecting support and resistance lines since. 2 - Price has fallen 28% since ATH compared to the 56% crash in the previous cycle during the same period. Bearish: 1 - Price fell below the 125 day SMA level around the 20th of June and has been trading below since. 2 - The 60,000 BTC/USD psychological level has also been broken and not regained for approx 2 weeks. 3 - Volume since ATH has been approximately 7% over the same period in previous cycle. 4 - Price has clear short term bearish momentum Bullish: 1 - Subtle Bullish Divergence on the RSI chart 2 - Price is trading above the shaded support area supported by volume session profile and clear historical trends. 3 - Extreme Fear displayed on the Fear and greed index. Fundamental Analysis: 1 - Real GDP has grown consistently over the past 10 quarters. 2 - Inflation appears to be easing with new US CPI appear beating analysts estimates but concerns about being behind the curve estimating a inflation to rise again in the winter. 3 - Short term unemployment data seems improving but as interest rates are still high a record number of credit defaults occurring which could potentially lead to worsened employment data by end of year. 4 - Gold price hitting ATH reflecting uncertainty due to heightened geopolitical tension. Pattern A cup and handle formation can be observed since Nov 2021 but handle seems elongated which might invalidate such pattern. Summary: With the current Bitcoin price at $58,637 and a 50% increase YTD, we can assert that the market is still in a bullish cycle. However, some critical points need to be analysed. Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin is trading at a crucial level. A breakdown below the $53,000 level would not inspire confidence and is likely to lead to a continuation down to the $49,500 level. This is a significant threshold, as a break below it could trigger substantial selling pressure. For Bitcoin to reverse this trend, it is crucial to reclaim the $60,000 psychological level, with trading above $61,000 providing confirmation. Subsequently, reclaiming the critical SMA level around $65,000 could likely lead to a new all-time high. Macro indicators suggest that most positive news has already been priced in. However, the overall geopolitical climate is radiating uncertainty, which is negative for the market. This is exacerbated by factors such as the upcoming US elections, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the Israel-Gaza conflict.Additionally, the Bitcoin hash rate is falling for the first time in two years, though a short-term drop does not confirm a long-term trend. Given these factors, I believe that BTC/USD will continue to trend downward in the short term until approximately late August/early September. The extent of this downward trend will depend on the behaviour at the key levels mentioned and the global climate. A reclaim of $65,000 would invalidate this bearish outlook.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Parsa_f
1
USDJPY towards 154 or 166?Current Situation USD/JPY is holding at elevated levels near 161.00 during Asian trading on Tuesday. The high-risk sentiment, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut, contributes to the pair's latest increase. All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for further indications on monetary policy. Recent Data and Technical Indicators Daily Chart: On Wednesday, July 3, USD/JPY posted a bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern, followed by a bearish down day, confirming the bearish sentiment. Support and Resistance: Support: The pair found support at the April 29 high of 160.32, forming a price gap indicating potential exhaustion. Resistance: It is currently trading against resistance from the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Key Factors Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Speculation about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, with the CME’s FedWatch tool indicating a 76.2% probability, up from 65.5% the previous week. Powell’s Testimony: Market participants are awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the US Congress for further insights into future policy direction. Japanese Yen Weakness: The JPY is extending losses due to foreign asset purchases by Japanese individuals under the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) program and concerns over potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the FX markets. US Treasury Yields: Rising speculation about a Fed rate cut is putting pressure on US Treasury yields, which could limit the upside for the US Dollar. Market Sentiment and Projections Short-term Trend: USD/JPY remains in a short-term downtrend. However, given the exhaustion gap and the strong medium to long-term uptrend, there is a risk the pair could continue recovering. Potential Targets: Upside: If the pair surpasses 161.40, it would be a bullish signal, with further gains potentially reaching 162.90. Downside: A break below 160.20 would confirm further downside towards a probable target of 158.50.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
A Simple/Consistent Trading Strategy Using AnchorBars For AllI was talking with a friend today and he stated he just wanted something simple and consistent. He stated he was using Weekly, Daily, and 30 Min charts to try to confirm his trade setups. He did not want to swing for trades too often - only when the Weekly, Daily, 30 Min charts aligned. I've build multiple systems somewhat like the one I'm showing you in this video. The trick to managing this system is to avoid consolidation periods. When price settles into an extended sideways range - you want to cut your trading down to almost NOTHING and wait for a more defined trend. Here you go. Simple and easy. If you don't understand AnchorBars, you can learn more on my other TradingView videos. Go Get Some...
AMEX:DIAEducation
by BradMatheny
2
EUR/USD Heading towards 1.095?Current Situation EUR/USD has shown signs of losing traction but remains above the 1.0800 level after peaking above 1.0840, its highest in three weeks. Despite the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increasing more than expected in June, downward revisions for May and April have prevented the USD from gaining strength. Technical Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): On the 4-hour chart, RSI has risen above 70, indicating that EUR/USD is technically overbought. However, this overbought condition does not necessarily signal an imminent drop, as long as key support levels hold. Support Levels: The 1.0800 level, which coincides with the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), is a crucial support. A drop below this level could see the next supports at 1.0760 and 1.0730-1.0740. Resistance Levels: On the upside, the 1.0840 level (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) serves as interim resistance, followed by the psychological level of 1.0900. Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment Nonfarm Payrolls: The US NFP report exceeded expectations with a rise to 206K, higher than the forecasted 190K, but revisions for previous months and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% have tempered the positive impact. Unemployment Rate: Increased to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021, slightly higher than the expected 4.0%. Average Hourly Earnings: Growth slowed to 3.9% YoY, matching expectations but down from the previous 4.1%. Market Expectations Fed Policy: The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 25% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave the policy rate unchanged in September. Weak job data could push the USD down further, as markets may price in a September rate cut. Conversely, stronger-than-expected NFP data could lead to reassessments regarding the timing of the Fed’s policy adjustments, potentially triggering a downward correction in EUR/USD. Upcoming Economic Events Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Appearance: Traders will look for insights on monetary policy direction. EU and US Inflation Data: Final inflation figures will be released on Thursday, which could impact EUR/USD movements. German Retail Sales and US PPI: Scheduled for next Friday, these data points will provide additional market cues.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Ultimate Trading Strategy: Reaction to Supply and Demand Levels!🔍 Identifying Potential Buy or Sell Zones: In this step, you need to identify the zones that are likely to react and wait for the price to potentially reach them. ⏳📊 🌟 With the reaction to the first area, a buy trade is activated. 🌟 📝 Confirmations: 📉 Reaction to the expected area – Watch for a price movement hitting our anticipated zone! 🛠️ Formation of a combined hammer pattern – Look out for this powerful reversal signal! 📈 Formation of a bullish engulfing pattern – A strong indicator of upward momentum! 🔍 Trading Tips: 💡 High-risk stop-loss location: 👉 Place it below the candlestick pattern. At least twice the spread to ensure you're covered! 📏🔒 💡 Lower-risk stop-loss location: 👉 Place it below the expected area. Again, at least twice the spread for extra safety! 📏🔒 💰 Take-profit strategy: 👉 Base it on risk management mathematics, such as risk-reward ratios of 2, 4, and 6. 👉 Alternatively, observe reactions to past market areas, especially near important market highs and lows. 📊📈 🎯 Entry point strategies: 👉 Enter at the close of the confirmation candle. 👉 Or, set a limit order around 50% of the confirmation candle for a bigger volume opportunity! 📉📈 🌟 Buying in Two Phases: A Smart and Exciting Strategy! 🌟 🔹 Phase One: When you reach a profit of twice the risk, exit the trade. Why? Because the Asian high has been hunted and the candlestick formed has a long upper shadow. 🌄💹 💡 Analysis: The price hasn’t reached other zones yet and has risen in reaction to the first expected zone. Therefore, we expect a pullback and continued upward movement. 💪📈 So, I’ll place a second buy trade. 🚀💵 🔍 Confirmations for the Second Buy Trade: A double bottom has formed, marked with an X. ❌❌ A small hammer candlestick has swept the double bottom. 🔨 A long positive shadow candlestick has swept the bottom and reacted to a small order block on the left. 🌟 💡 Tips for the Second Buy Trade: Enter at the close of the long-shadowed doji candlestick or place a stop limit order above the long-shadowed doji candlestick. 📉📈 The stop loss should be below this candlestick. 📏🔒 🔹 Phase Two: Next, the price has reached an expected reaction zone from where we expected a price drop. 🌐💡 🔍 Confirmations for the Sell Trade: Reaction to the expected zone. 🔍 An inverse hammer candlestick reacting to the zone. 🔨 💡 Tips for the Sell Trade: The entry point should be in a candlestick with a negative signal indicating a price drop. This hammer candlestick can indicate a decline. 📉🔻 The target can be a reward of 2 or the last price bottom. 🎯💰 The stop loss should preferably be behind the expected zone. 📏🔒 🔥 Important Points!!: Since the price hasn’t deeply penetrated the zones, there’s a chance it might go higher or even mitigate this zone twice, ultimately turning it into a pullback for a further price rise. 🚀📈 Continuing on, the price reached the upper zone area. We expected a price drop from this zone, but it reached at 03:15, which is outside our trading session. However, we could have traded on it. 🔍 Sell Confirmations: The price has reached the expected zone. An inverse hammer candlestick pattern. 💡 Interesting Fact: If you had placed a limit order around the midpoint of the previous two zones, you would have profited by now. So, for this zone, you can also place a limit order around 50% of it. Continuing further, other zones have formed below that could be useful for new trades. ✨ Successful Sell Trade Achieved, Reaching a Reward of 4 Times the Risk. 📉 During the session continuation, the trend line was broken, triggering an upward price pullback. 🔹 Now, at the beginning of the session, we have a new zone, likely a selling order placement area. We're taking the risk on this zone. This time, we can place the trade around 50% of it. 🚀💼 🔥 Alright, what's your take now? 🔥 🌟 Is the price reacting to this level or not? 🌟 🚀📈 or 📉💥 Where are the upper zones located? What do you think? 🤔💬
Education
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
Paper Trading Challenge: Which Strategy Did the Best, Winner is The winner has now been decided! In this thrilling paper trading battle, we put four powerful trading strategies to the test: Harmonics Trading Strategy, Sentiment Trading Strategy, RSAI Blueprint Strategy, and Market Structure Strategy. Throughout this episode, we: Explained the fundamentals of each strategy. Demonstrated real-time application of each trading approach. Tracked and analyzed trades executed by each strategy. Compared performance metrics including win/loss ratio, average return, and overall profitability. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, this video offers valuable insights into the practical application of these popular trading techniques. Watch till the end to see which strategy emerges victorious and to learn tips and tricks you can incorporate into your own trading practice. 🔔 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more trading strategy battles and tutorials!
Education
by TruthakaWallStreetakaCookie
USDJPY: Bullish Outlook USD/JPY Analysis 1. Recent Performance Current Trend: USD/JPY trades around 159.70 on Monday, maintaining a bullish bias. The pair is testing the upper boundary of an ascending channel pattern on the daily chart. Japanese Yen Stability: The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds its ground, likely due to verbal intervention by Japanese authorities. Masato Kanda, Japan's top currency diplomat, stated his readiness to intervene around the clock if necessary to prevent excessive movements in the forex market. 2. Technical Analysis Bullish Indicators: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50 level, indicating upward momentum. Surpassing the upper threshold of the ascending channel pattern will reinforce the bullish sentiment, potentially pushing the pair toward 160.32, a major resistance level last seen in April, marking the highest level in over thirty years. Support Levels: Immediate support is at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.42. A breach below this level could increase downward pressure on USD/JPY, targeting the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 155.60. Further support is at the throwback level of 152.80, which could be tested if the lower boundary is broken. 3. Fundamental Context US Dollar Dynamics: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged lower due to a decline in yields on US Treasury bonds. However, the downside for the USD may be limited as higher-than-expected US PMI data has delayed expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is now priced at 65.9%, down from 70.2% a week earlier. Yield Differentials: Despite lower US Treasury yields, USD/JPY remains near 160, driven by the large yield differentials. Value investors are deterred by carry traders, suggesting that significant rate cuts by the Fed might be necessary to change this dynamic. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces a prolonged period of economic challenges, potentially extending through the summer and autumn. 4. Market Sentiment Verbal Intervention: The Japanese authorities, particularly Masato Kanda, have emphasized their readiness to intervene to prevent excessive volatility in the forex market. This stance provides some support to the JPY. Fed Rate Cut Speculation: Speculation around the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts has a significant impact on USD/JPY. Delays in rate cuts support the USD, contributing to the pair's current bullish momentum. Conclusion USD/JPY is trading around 159.70 with a bullish outlook, reinforced by technical indicators and the current yield differential environment. Immediate resistance is at 160.32, while support is found at 158.42 and lower at 155.60. The pair's performance is influenced by verbal interventions from Japanese authorities and ongoing speculation regarding the Fed's interest rate policy. Market participants will continue to monitor these factors for further direction.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Bearish OutlookGBP/USD Analysis 1. Recent Performance Current Trend: GBP/USD trades in positive territory above 1.2650 in the second half of Monday. Following a strong performance due to upbeat PMI data on Friday, the US Dollar has weakened amid a positive shift in risk sentiment, allowing GBP/USD to extend its rebound. Previous Movements: GBP/USD fell below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2640 on Friday but closed the week above this level, indicating sellers' hesitancy. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has recovered toward 50. 2. Technical Analysis Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.2700 (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart). Additional resistance is found at 1.2720-1.2730 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend, 100-period SMA) and 1.2800 (psychological level, static level). Support Levels: If GBP/USD falls below 1.2640 and uses it as resistance, the next bearish targets are 1.2600 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). Market Indicators: Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD touched its weakest level since mid-May near 1.2620 on Friday. Despite ending the week in negative territory, GBP/USD stages a correction and trades above 1.2650 on Monday. 3. Fundamental Context US Dollar Dynamics: The USD gained strength heading into the weekend after the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for June showed robust expansion in the US private sector. Early Monday, the USD stays under modest bearish pressure amid an improving risk mood, helping GBP/USD hold its ground. Upcoming Data: The US economic docket will feature the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. These are unlikely to trigger significant market reactions, with investors likely remaining focused on risk perception. Market Sentiment: Mixed actions in Wall Street, with Dow Futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq Futures down 0.1%, could make it difficult for GBP/USD to continue stretching higher. 4. Pound Sterling Performance Current Position: The Pound Sterling gains ground against the US Dollar, trading around 1.2650 in early New York session on Monday, rebounding from last week’s sharp sell-off. The upside move in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has paused and struggles to extend above the immediate resistance of 106.00. Economic Indicators: The near-term outlook for the USD has strengthened after the S&P Global PMI report showed unexpected expansion in the manufacturing and service sectors, with the Composite PMI jumping to 51.7. Despite the improved PMI figures, inflation concerns have eased, aligning with the Fed's 2% inflation target. 5. Bank of England and Market Expectations Interest Rate Outlook: Market speculation for the Bank of England (BoE) to begin lowering its key borrowing rates in August has increased after a dovish monetary policy statement. The BoE’s decision to hold interest rates at 5.25% was “finely balanced,” signaling potential rate cuts. Annual headline inflation has returned to the desired rate of 2%, but officials remain cautious about persistent service inflation, which decelerated to 5.7% in May. UK Economic Outlook: The UK’s economic outlook faces uncertainty after the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS PMI report showed unexpected slowing in the service sector, though the Manufacturing PMI expanded faster than expected. The slowdown reflects business environment uncertainty ahead of the general election, causing a hiatus in decision-making. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair is currently trading above 1.2650, showing signs of recovery amid a weakened US Dollar and positive risk sentiment. Technically, the pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2700 and has support at 1.2640 and below. Fundamentally, the outlook is influenced by US PMI data and BoE's interest rate expectations. The market will continue to monitor risk sentiment and upcoming economic indicators for further direction.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Recovery: Navigating Key Resistance Amid Mixed SignalsEUR/USD Analysis 1. Recent Trend Recovery Trend: EUR/USD is showing a recovery momentum, approaching 1.0750 after closing the previous week in negative territory. Improved Risk Sentiment: The improved risk sentiment hampers USD demand, aiding EUR/USD's rise. 2. Technical Analysis Moving Averages: On the daily chart, EUR/USD is below all its moving averages. The bearish 20 SMA crosses below the 100 and 200 SMAs, all in the 1.0780/90 price zone. Technical Indicators: The technical indicators are slightly higher, moving away from oversold levels but still far from their midlines. Short-Term Scenario: The short-term picture shows increasing buying pressure. The EUR/USD pair is above the 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages maintain their bearish slopes above the current level. Technical indicators aim higher around neutral levels but struggle to surpass their midlines. 3. Key Levels Support: 1.0705 1.0660 1.0615 Resistance: 1.0755 1.0805 1.0845 4. Fundamental Context USD Pressure: The US Dollar is under mild selling pressure ahead of Wall Street's opening, giving up modest intraday gains. EUR/USD trades around 1.0730, recovering from an intraday low of 1.0681. Inflation and Political Jitters: Focus is on political concerns and inflation, particularly the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. FOMC Minutes: The macroeconomic calendar will include the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with limited impact on financial markets due to the Fed's recent economic projections. 5. European Economic Data German IFO: Germany published the June IFO Business Climate Index, which unexpectedly fell to 88.6 from 89.3 in May, missing the estimate of 89.7. Expert Assessment: FX strategists at Societe Generale note that expectations are down. 6. Future Outlook Short-Term Scenario: The EUR/USD pair needs to surpass 1.0760 to confirm positive momentum and extend gains towards the 1.0810 price zone. Market Considerations: Despite lowered expectations, the Euro is advancing even with tepid local data and might face resistance in reaching higher levels like 1.08. Conclusion The technical and fundamental outlook for EUR/USD suggests that despite a recovery momentum, the pair remains under pressure with significant resistance around 1.0760 and beyond. Economic dynamics and market expectations will continue to play a crucial role in the pair's performance, with particular attention to US economic data and Fed decisions.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought WBA before the previous earnings: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 17.50usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2024-7-19, for a premium of approximately $0.41. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NASDAQ:WBALong
by TopgOptions
1
Trading pullbacks and handling fearOur last trade was a pullback, I will share the M1 timeframe for more clarity on this. But it still went out on Exit 1. So how do we handle the fear of a reversal or mistakes? Even if volatility is huge and we have a direction but we see that for example there has been a bigger reversal against our trade, but of course do not know how long it will last. Having a checklist in these kind of situations is always THE orientation that you need. Trading is not about always knowing where the market is going, because no one knows it. We only have a mechanical list that helps us in our decision making, and sometimes the worst thing that can happen, if I do not enter too late or exit too early is to simply taking the pullback and be out (or at break even) fast. If you do not have a checklist for my strategy, take a look at my education. I provide you with everything you need for profitable trading here: beacons.ai Don't miss this one time chance, because this offer runs out on 1st of July and won't come back for at least the next year. Grab you chance now and get everything you will ever need on the charts today :)
D
by Heaven10
XAUUSD: Big Swing Buy Coming Up Worth 2200+ PIPS! Dear Traders, Gold rejected at $2450 and dropped more than 1200+ pips, indicating a strong bearish takeover. Still we expect the same to continue, as bearish momentum is so strong that price ranged between 2330-2340 area for a long period on Friday. Which suggested that bears large number of volume Is still there in the market. Going forward, we can expect price of Gold to drop around 2280-2290 this key level remain strong for buyers. That move will be worth thousands of pips we expecting around 2200 pips if not more targeting 2500$ which will be record high. **Please like and comment the idea, for more do follow us which will encourage us to bring more educational chart analysis** Do your own analysis, always follow risk management. Team SetupsFX_
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
33
TRADING TIPS That SERIOUS Traders Know ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)Trading can be like... following a diet🥨 You need a clear plan, but also some space for cheats. If you're prone to jump-in trading, have some funds available for it - trading should be fun! Take that risk. But plan for it. If you've spent your 10% high risk capitol for the month/quarter, then that's that. - Look for Fractals Fractals in higher timeframes such as the weekly are often reliable, as it points towards the cyclic nature of the market. How did I make +118% on SOL? By following a fractal from the previous bull market: - Learn Elliot Wave Theory From the DOGE chart, we can see that Point 5 is not going to happen. (not that it won't happen at all, but just that it won't happen for the short term). How do I know this? ...Elliot Wave Theory. The EWT tells us that if point 4 retraces beyond point 1, the bullish impulse is invalidated. We are now more likely to slow bleed down to Point 2. - Look for Reliable Patterns Sometimes, certain patterns can be seen moments before they are finally "finished" forming. It's important to know the rules of these patterns, and trade reactively. I knew where to short ETH. How did I know? The M-Pattern: Deep Dive guide on Pattern-Trading here: - Learn to Manage Risk with Leverage Let's not duck around - Trading is risky but crypto trading is VERY RISKY. Make sure you have a strategy. - Learn To Trade the Rotations There's a secret pattern in the relationship between Bitcoin, Bitcoin Dominance and altcoins by market cap. Make sure you understand it before you take a leveraged trade: - Pick a few Technical Indicators and STICK TO THEM It's tempting to use whatever new indicator is the flavor of the day... but how will you ever learn the secrets? Technical indicators have "secrets". They look different on different markets. For example, SOL can be "Extremely Overbought" without correcting much for an extended period of time, where as Bitcoin usually corrects when the "Extremely Overbought" signal flashes. (This is an observation from using one indicator on many charts). Personally, I love Bollinger Bands, Moving averages and Cryptocheck START V3.5 as my combo indicator. That's how I called the beginning of the new Bullish season in November 2023: It's important to note that none of these strategies are 100% fail proof. Even the best Wallstreet traders average on 58% per annum. Stop trying to follow people who claim to make +1000000....% per annum. Often, these guys have lots of money to lose, in other words it's more a fly-by-night than studying charts for consistent wins. As long as you're making more than interest rates from a fixed deposit at the bank - you're winning! ________________________
by CryptoCheck-