Get started

Strategy!

XAUUSD| It's time for a correction toward 2250$The analysis on gold presents a complex picture influenced by various factors. Initially, the precious metal recorded a significant loss, exceeding 2% during the day and dropping below $2,340. This decrease was primarily attributed to the easing geopolitical tensions, which prompted a deep correction in the XAU/USD market. Additionally, the resilience of US Treasury bond yields added bearish pressure to the pair. From a fundamental perspective, spot gold is under intense selling pressure at the beginning of the week, with XAU/USD approaching a daily low of $2,329.51, the lowest in a week. The recent decline was partly caused by an increased appetite for high-yielding assets, as evidenced by investors fleeing to Asian stocks amid the easing tensions in the Middle East. The US dollar, although mixed against its major rivals, shows particular weakness compared to commodity-linked currencies. However, activity remains well-contained pending first-tier data scheduled for the week, especially regarding the release of the first estimate of Q1 GDP and the March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index in the United States. In summary, gold exhibits bearish signals in the short term, with a combination of technical and fundamental factors contributing to its current weakness. However, the situation could evolve in response to any significant geopolitical developments or economic data.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
PM Philip Morris International Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on PM: nor sold the top: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PM Philip Morris International prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 92.50usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2025-1-17, for a premium of approximately $5.80. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:PMShort
by TopgOptions
The USD in a ConundrumThe USD at the start of the year was trading near the 100 lvl but has managed to push above the 106 lvl in a little over a few months. If price is able to break out of the 107 lvl, there isn't to many resistances for the USD to break (the 108 could be one) and price might be able to hit the 114 lvl made in 2022. With the CPI data coming in a little higher then expected and traders/investors/analysts speculating that the FED will likely hold off on reducing rates (currently, FED Rate Monitoring tool is showing a 71.7% chance of FED holding rates), the elections coming up, conflicts in the Middle East/Europe/Asia, continued government spending (which keeps increasing), not enough government revenue which leads to more borrowing, this puts the FED between a rock and a hard place. Will the FED continue to hold rates and potentially push the economy to a recession (and a real one not one that did happen but supposedly didn't happen, back in 2022 Q1/Q2) or continue on with lowering rates, keep the economy going and potentially cause inflation to spike? Either way it is No Bueno. What is interesting is how commodities such as Gold/Silver/Oil are pushing up higher while the USD pushes up higher. These products are typical non correlated to each other, yet, currently they are. The USD shot up to 106. Silver from the start of the year pushed up from near 22 to now coming close to hitting 30 before pulling back to below 28. Gold pushed lower to below 2,000 in the beginning of February and pushed above 2,440 before pulling back to 2,360. Oil began near 70 and is trading above 85. So, when things return to the mean (non correlated), either the USD will take a hit or commodities will. The main things is how much of a hit will happen. Risk assets such as the stock market are finally taking a hit as the market just kept climbing and climbing, with the DJ Futures Market pushing past 40k and finally being cracked in the beginning of April. I am thinking that the USD might be able to hit the 108 lvl as other Central Banks are holding onto rates (just recently the ECB stuck to holding rates). If the FED holds onto current rates and other banks decide to reduce rates, the USD will skyrocket higher. If other banks decide to keep holding rates while the FED does, it will likely be whose economy can withstand the higher rates the longest. Protect yourselves with either reducing position sizing to withstand a large move, hedge, or do not be in a trade and see if price moves how you are speculating it. I have no position on the USD or in Forex itself (I'm tied up in other trades), but I am watching this because it is part of the plan I have when my other positions in other trades are completed. Y'all have some great trading out there.
INDEX:DXYLong
by DollarSaenz
What's in a Trading Plan? Here's All You Need to Include.Ready, set… plan? In this guide, we discuss why you need to plan your trading before trading your plan. Let’s roll. Table of Contents: »Importance of a Trading Plan »The Successful Trading Plan Doesn't Exi... »What's in a Typical Trading Day? »Markets, Strategies and Styles »Summary Venturing into trading without a plan is akin to setting sail on the ocean without a compass. Or taking the leap without looking first 😉. We can keep the metaphors rolling but if there’s one thing you must remember from this word salad of an article, it’s this: success in trading is possible with a plan. Without a plan, not so much. In this guide, we'll talk about the importance of creating a trading plan, what you should include in it, and how to follow it. 📍 Importance of a Trading Plan A trading plan is not just a list of dos and don’ts; it's the roadmap to trading success. Here's why it matters: ➡️ Streamlines Your Actions : Much like a roadmap, a trading plan outlines your objectives, time frames, strategies, and risk management techniques, and offers a clear path forward. ➡️ Limits Emotional Swings : By defining rules and parameters in advance, a trading plan helps to keep emotions in check, limiting impulsive actions that could lead to financial pitfalls. ➡️ Fosters Discipline : Sticking to a plan holds you accountable for your actions and allows you to see where you jump out of your rule book and into undisciplined FOMO-driven pump-chasing revenge trading. 📍 The Successful Trading Plan Doesn't Exi... Many traders believe that you can be successful by buying and selling random selections of stocks, forex pairs, or commodities. However, the reality is that the most — if not all — successful traders have one thing in common: a well-defined trading plan. Here's what makes for a successful trading plan: ☝🏽 Adaptability : A successful trading plan is not rigid but flexible, allowing for adjustments in response to changing market conditions. ☝🏽 Consistency : A plan helps you stay on track toward your goals as a trader, allowing you to stick to predefined rules and strategies, especially when things get hot and volatile. ☝🏽 Continuous Improvement : A successful trading plan is a work in progress. The more time you use it, the higher probability you will have to refine it as you drift along diverse assets, all swayed by different factors. 📍 What's in a Typical Trading Day? A typical trading day is a blend of preparation, execution, and reflection. And while you should leave room for new ideas, fresh approaches, and some surprises, there are mainstay components that you need to have in your trading plan. 📰 Reading the News : Staying in the know is always a good idea. For many successful traders, the first thing to do is check what’s the latest on the news front. Known as fundamental analysis, reading the news and doing your research will help you get a sense of investor sentiment. Moreover, you can stay ahead of the curve and anticipate big market moves by following the economic calendar. Lots of those sharp swings you see in forex or stocks are caused by regular data dumps such as the monthly US nonfarm payrolls report. The Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates or the monthly Consumer Price Index are also keys to anticipating volatility. And what better place to follow all that’s moving markets than the TradingView News section ? 📈 Following the Charts : if you’re here, this one won’t be too new to you. Chart reading, known as technical analysis, is one of the oldest ways to analyze anything — from stocks to crypto and even frozen orange juice. Think of a chart as your trading canvas. It’s your space to be creative, draft ideas, look for technical patterns and formations, and anticipate potential moves. Observing the chart and watching how prices behave will help you spot where a trend may form, extend, or reverse. Some of the most popular technical formations include double tops and bottoms, head and shoulders, cup and handle, and more. And some of the most popular technical indicators include the Simple Moving Average (SMA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Fibonacci sequence. All of that, and much more, is readily available for you almost anywhere you click on the TradingView platform. ⚒️ Work on Your Skills : Trading doesn’t have to glue you to the screen in constant monitoring of every blip. If you don’t see anything to trade, don’t trade just for the sake of it. Sometimes the best trading position is no position at all. Instead, use some of your idle time to build out your knowledge base. Grab some books on technical analysis or trading psychology. Or watch interviews of successful traders and investors and gain that educational edge to help you become a more aware, informed, and confident trader. 🏖️ Take a Break : Not everything you do needs to be related to productivity gains and trading improvement. Stare into space or read a great novel. Take your mind off trading and unwind, let the steam off, and recharge your batteries. Go out, enjoy a walk or do some people-watching. Taking time to zone out every now and then will help you get back to trading sharper, smarter, and more balanced. 📍 Markets, Strategies and Styles The world of trading is as diverse as it is dynamic, offering a flurry of markets, strategies, and trading styles to explore. Here's a glimpse into the landscape: 💹 Markets : Traders can choose from a variety of financial markets, including stocks , forex , and cryptocurrencies , each with its unique characteristics and opportunities. When you set out to create your trading plan, think carefully whether you want your portfolio to be concentrated into any one market or asset class. Or maybe you’d like to go for a diverse approach to trading and pull in assets from several markets. Knowing what your asset preference is will help you phase out markets so they don’t distract you. 🎯 Strategies : From technical analysis to fundamental analysis, you can adopt various strategies to identify trading opportunities and manage risk, ranging from trend following to mean reversion. News trading is a popular approach to markets as it allows you to bet on economic reports, geopolitical events, central bank updates, and more. On the other hand, technical traders tend to stick to the chart in efforts to gauge price movements and trends. Every chart tells a story. Deciphering it is the tough part. 🌈 Styles : Trading styles are equally important and they’re all tied to a specific time frame of holding your positions. If you’re more into short-term trading, you may pick scalping and target a few pips of gains before jumping out of your trade. Day trading and swing trading are two popular time-sensitive trading strategies that you may want to explore when building out your trading plan. 📍 Summary Your trading plan should be exactly that — yours. Tailor it to your specific goals, risk orientation, asset preference, and find out how it stacks up against market conditions. That way, you can navigate the markets with confidence and direction, instead of letting markets sway your decision making and lead you into uncharted waters. Embark on your trading journey armed with a well-crafted plan, and let it be your roadmap to trading success. 📣With that said, let us know in the comments: do you have a trading plan? What’s the most important element of it and are you always sticking to it?
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
40
USD/JPY| Detailed AnalysisDetailed Analysis on USD/JPY Recent Market Dynamics The Japanese Yen has recently attracted some buyers and recovered a portion of the losses incurred after Wednesday's US CPI release. Concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities, coupled with a weaker risk tone, have supported the JPY and exerted pressure on USD/JPY. Divergent Monetary Policy Expectations Divergent expectations regarding the policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are expected to limit any significant corrective moves for the currency pair. While the Fed is moving towards a tightening policy, the BoJ maintains a more accommodative stance. Key Levels of Resistance and Support USD/JPY has recently surpassed the resistance level at 153.00, paving the way towards the next significant resistance level. However, risks of intervention by Japanese authorities could lead the pair towards the next key support levels. Performance During the North American Session Despite warnings about potential Japanese intervention, USD/JPY has seen an increase during the North American session, staying above the 153.00 threshold. Strength of the US Dollar The US Dollar is gaining ground across the board, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) reaching its highest level since November 2023. This is partly due to Wednesday's inflation report, which favored a positive reaction for the dollar. Reaction to US Economic Data Recent US economic data, particularly on inflation, has bolstered the strength of the US Dollar despite the weaker-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Future Outlook Considering that US economic data indicates the Federal Reserve's work is not yet complete, it is expected that the US Dollar will continue to strengthen in the near term. Additionally, US Treasury yields have increased, further enhancing the outlook for the American currency. Japanese Authorities' Reactions On the Japanese front, Finance Minister Suzuki has stated that Japanese authorities will not rule out any measures to address excessive yen volatility, highlighting a high sense of urgency in monitoring the currency situation.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
6
Strategy: Butterfly Continuation Failure. This strategy is intended to be a method to help to differentiate a pullback from reversal. Here we're using the butterfly pattern which is a continuation pattern, but the failure of this continuation pattern can mean the failure of the trend. It's a very useful signal that can be used on all time frames. You can find great examples of this before crashes (Such as 2007 - 2008) and also near the lows of major downtrends. The strategy also works great for day trading. Spotting the breaking of intraday trends. Usually upon the breaking of this pattern the momentum picks up. Meaning a bearish break leads to capitulation and bullish break leads to parabolic move. Very useful for spotting reversals and a method for trailing stop losses. ---- This is a counter strategy to the butterfly continuation.
NYSE:LOWEducation
by holeyprofit
2
Strategy: The Butterfly Reversal. Harmonics are a very useful tool for gaining insight into possible reversal levels after strong trends. "M" shapes are often found at the bottom of trends and "W" shapes at the top. Most often these fit into the rules of the butterfly reversal. A defining characteristic of the butterfly is the final leg (D leg) is always a very strong leg. It's a strong and scary false breakout. Comes out of a range and always tends to look like trend continuation. In the times the butterfly reversal will work, the strong move is terminal. It'll run just far enough to take out the stops and bring in breakout traders and then have a spectacular reversal. Another trait of harmonics is the reversal is at least as strong as the move heading into it, often stronger. Since they have as a defining feature very strong swings at different points, when we have large chart harmonics these are often also accompanied by news that drives the fast moves. In the times they work, harmonics are one of the most accurate forms of forward looking signals for a reversal. However, it should be noted that trading harmonics as a sole strategy against a trend is not expected to have a winning outcome. Typically you'd expected to hit about 1/3 winners on 1:3 RR and come out around even. That's if you do it really well. Otherwise, it's a losing game. Lots of "M" shapes form in a downtrend and lots of "W" shapes form in an uptrend. The formation of these does not always mean reversal, but when there are reversals; you often see these structures signalling them. Harmonic butterflies are a classic false breakout / stop hunt pattern and very useful to know about.
NYSE:LOWEducation
by holeyprofit
1
GBPUSD| Bullish reaction after the NFPThe pound started the week with a slight bullish tone against the US dollar. This increase was favored by a slightly weaker dollar, accompanied by a moderate risk appetite in the market. This scenario allowed the pair to extend its recovery from the lows recorded after the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, bringing it back towards the 1.2600 level. Positive sentiment in the market has put pressure on the US dollar; however, it is likely that downward attempts will remain limited. Investors are preparing to maintain a cautious stance in anticipation of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Wednesday. In the context of the analysis, it should be noted that US Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly showed strength last Friday, confirming the solid momentum of the US economy and further questioning the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. In this context, another positive surprise in economic data on Wednesday could give a fresh boost to the US dollar. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair is trading lower compared to the highs reached in early March. Key resistance is identified at 1.2682, a breakout of which could alleviate the downward pressure and push the exchange rate towards 1.2752, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level of the March decline. Expected support levels are at 1.2572 and 1.2532.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Strategy: The 1.61 Head Fake Strategy. The 1.61 head fake strategy is intended to give early signals of where a high/low might be and be an early tell on the potential turn of the trend. This strategy can be used for both pullbacks and reversals. When traded as a correction, this strategy usually is successful in the forecasting and trading of the end of Elliot wave 5 heading into the ABC. Absolute highs and lows can also be made with this 1.61 head fake. Breaking of the 2.20 fib triggers failure of this strategy.
NYSE:LOWEducation
by holeyprofit
Strategy: 76 Correction Trend Continuation. The 76 correction strategy aims to pick up optimal continuation trades into large retracements. It's a trend following strategy that aims to enter into strong counter trend moves to a 76% retracement of the previous trend leg. This strategy usually performs best when combined with Elliot wave. Waiting for there to be a full impulsive leg in 5 waves followed by a big ABC correction. The strategy aims to pick up trades into the "C" point in such a correction. With a default minimum risk:reward of 1:3 the strategy is expected to breakeven on win rates of 35% or higher.
NYSE:LOWEducation
by holeyprofit
2
ACB Marijuana related volatility in a penny- SHORTOn the 2H chart ACB a penny stock appears to be heading down after an uptrend into VWAP band resistance. The HMAs have put ina death cross and the lines are downward and under the histogram. The dual time frame RSI indicator shows the lines falling through the 50 level. This stock offers shares under $ 1.00 each and also put options. It is likely not shortable so I will but put options and hope to have a fast ride with them. The stock target is the psychological level of 0.5 also confluent with the next VWAP line down. Is is a 8% drop in share price and would yield a good 50% or more on a 7DTE call option. If you are interested in my specific option setup in mind, please leave a comment.
NASDAQ:ACBShort
by AwesomeAvani
2
STOP LOSS more important than you think!Set STOP-LOSS and stop your loss! The Vital Role of Stop-Loss in Forex and Crypto Trading In the fast-paced realms of forex and cryptocurrency trading, where market volatility is the norm, the integration of a stop-loss strategy holds paramount importance. A stop-loss order acts as a critical risk management tool, shielding traders from excessive losses and preventing impulsive decision-making in turbulent market conditions. However, its significance goes beyond risk mitigation; stop-loss orders also play a pivotal role in guiding traders towards selecting optimal entry points. Let's delve into why incorporating stop-loss orders into your trading approach is essential for achieving long-term success. Fostering Discipline and Psychological Resilience One of the primary rationales for the necessity of stop-loss lies in its capacity to nurture discipline and psychological resilience among traders. By establishing predetermined exit points, traders not only manage risk effectively but also cultivate a disciplined mindset crucial for navigating the complexities of financial markets. Adhering to stop-loss levels compels traders to conduct thorough analyses of entry points, thereby refining their decision-making processes. This disciplined approach not only mitigates the influence of emotional trading but also fosters rationality and consistency, pivotal attributes for sustainable trading success. Empowering Effective Risk Management Practices Effective risk management forms the bedrock of successful trading endeavors. Without the implementation of stop-loss mechanisms, traders expose themselves to the peril of unchecked losses, which could potentially erode their entire trading capital. Stop-loss orders serve as a bulwark against such scenarios, capping losses at predetermined levels. By calculating appropriate position sizes relative to stop-loss distances, traders ensure that each trade aligns with their risk tolerance and overarching trading strategy. Moreover, the process of setting stop-loss levels inherently prompts traders to meticulously assess entry points, reinforcing the importance of selecting optimal trade setups. Optimizing Risk-Reward Dynamics An often-overlooked aspect by novice traders is the critical importance of maintaining favorable risk-to-reward ratios. Trading without stop-loss not only compromises risk management but also distorts the risk-reward dynamics of each trade. Well-placed stop-loss orders enable traders to define risk upfront, enabling them to seek out trades with favorable risk-reward profiles. By aligning potential losses with anticipated gains, traders can pursue asymmetric returns, where profit potential outweighs risk undertaken. This strategic alignment not only enhances profitability but also instills confidence in traders, empowering them to execute trades with conviction. Conclusion In conclusion, the integration of stop-loss orders into your forex and crypto trading endeavors is indispensable for cultivating discipline, managing risk effectively, and optimizing profitability. Beyond serving as a risk management tool, stop-loss orders nurture psychological resilience, refine decision-making processes, and uphold the principles of disciplined trading. Moreover, stop-loss implementation inherently encourages traders to scrutinize entry points meticulously, reinforcing the importance of selecting optimal trade setups. Therefore, traders must recognize the pivotal role of stop-loss in safeguarding capital and fostering long-term success in the dynamic world of financial markets.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by traderstube
GBPUSD: Road Map from 1.2640 to 1.244The British Pound experienced a significant decline during the mid-North American session, primarily due to the outlook of US economic data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Optimism regarding the strength of the US economy bolstered the US Dollar, while US Treasury yields increased significantly, exerting additional pressure on the Cable (GBP/USD). Looking ahead, if sellers manage to push the exchange rate below 1.2550, the next target could be the threshold of 1.2500. However, if the pair surpasses the 200-DMA, we might witness a potential recovery, with 1.2600 as the next resistance zone, followed by the 100-DMA at 1.2649. Meanwhile, in the United States, economic data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed growth in economic activity in March, suggesting resilience in the US economy. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) exceeded expectations, also highlighting an increase in the Prices Paid Index, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's plans to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. Best wishes and happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD: The Level 1.07 will be the next target!The analysis on EUR/USD shows a strong bearish pressure that led the cross to touch its lowest level since mid-February, dropping below the level of 1.0750. The daily chart indicates that EUR/USD is confined within a 20 pip range below the level of 1.0803, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous rally from 1.0694 to 1.0981. In the 4-hour chart, the 20-period SMA is moving downwards above the current level while below the longer moving averages, further confirming the bearish trend. The current session is characterized by a lack of significant events, with EUR/USD oscillating around the level of 1.0780 due to the Easter holidays, which have made Asian and European markets quiet. In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei 225 recorded a decline due to a negative report on business sentiment, while Chinese stocks saw an increase following better-than-expected economic data. Overall, I expect a rebound at the level of 1.088, where trendline intersections may occur, leading to a decline towards the 1.07 zone. Best wishes and happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
10 EMA strategy ^BEST TREND-FOLLOWING STRATEGY^Welcome! Today, I'm excited to share with you one of the most effective trend-following strategies that is adaptable to any timeframe and asset class ( OANDA:XAUUSD , NSE:NIFTY , FX:USDCHF ), boasting a remarkable risk/reward ratio of up to 1:10. Let's dive right in. As mentioned, this strategy revolves around the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), specifically the 10-period EMA. For those unfamiliar, the EMA places greater emphasis on recent price data compared to a Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing a dynamic view of market trends. When the price on your chart is above the 10 EMA, it signifies a bullish trend; conversely, when the 10 EMA is above the price, it indicates a bearish trend. Let's illustrate with an example: Imagine a bullish trend with four consecutive green candles followed by a red candle. Our entry point occurs when this red candle, the trigger candle, fails to touch the 10 EMA. Subsequently, when a green candle crosses above the high of the trigger candle, we enter the trade. Setting our stop loss (SL) just below the EMA line beneath the trigger candle, we establish our take profit (TP) based on a risk/reward ratio, starting at 1:2 and potentially reaching an impressive 1:10. Trailing the 10 EMA line allows us to stay in the trade longer, albeit experiencing initial stop-loss hits. However, perseverance reveals the strategy's efficacy over time. Now, for short positions, such as during a downtrend characterized by three red candles followed by a green candle, our entry occurs when the low of the green candle is breached by the subsequent red candle. Setting the SL just above the EMA line above the trigger candle and TP based on the risk/reward ratio, we execute the trade. For those interested in trailing stops, there are two options: firstly, trailing along the 10 EMA line; secondly, utilizing the Average True Range (ATR) for algorithmic trading enthusiasts. With this strategy's flexibility and potential for significant returns, it offers traders a robust approach to navigating diverse market conditions. ***Here are 2 examples of Long & Short: Long position in BINANCE:SOLUSDT www.tradingview.com Short in FOREXCOM:EURCAD It's crucial not only to grasp the concept of this strategy but also to put it into practice. 💼 Start by implementing it with small capital or utilize paper trading, which platforms like TradingView offer. 📝 Additionally, don't hesitate to experiment. For instance, try using an 11-period EMA and assess its effectiveness. You might find that it better suits your trading style and objectives. 🧪💡 Remember, trading is a journey of discovery! 🚀 Don't be afraid to explore new strategies and techniques along the way. 🌟 Like (boost), follow, comment, and share this strategy to spread the knowledge and empower fellow traders! 📈🚀👍 For the optimal TradingView experience, upgrade now to unlock the platform's full potential: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by smarttrader012