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How to Find a High Probability Trade in an Uptrend Hey Traders, We'll show you how you can find an easy trade with a high risk-to-reward ratio using some basic concepts. - Step One: Spot an uptrend where you have higher highs and higher lows. - Step two: Spot the last break of structure. - Step three: Use the Fibonacci tool and connect it from the recent lows to the recent highs. - Step Four: Watch prices coming back to the broken structure that lines up with any Fibonacci level. ( Focus on the 50% - 61.8% - 78.6% Levels ) - Step Five: Wait for a clear bullish candle and then enter with stoploss structure - Step Six: Take partial profits at the recent highs and the Fibonacci extensions ( - 0.27 & -0.618 )
Education
by Tradenessfx
3
The most subjective facet of my decision-making systemIn the previous publication I started talking about my decision-making system. I use it when investing in stocks. This system allows me to answer three questions: - which stocks to choose? - at what price to make a trade? - and in what quantity? In this post, I will continue to answer the question Which stocks to pick? and tell you about another facet of my crystal. As you can see, my decision-making system is quite formalized. What do I mean? It has clear criteria for which a company must be checked before investing in its stocks. If we go deeper into this idea, we can say that the state of affairs in any public company can be assessed using numbers from its statements and stock exchange prices for its stocks. All this can be visualized, put into a form that is readable for the investor, and accelerate the decision-making process many times over. However, there is an area with information that hovers around the companies, directly or indirectly influences it, but is poorly formalized: this is News . News can be called a message related to a company and distributed through its website, media, and social networks. This message triggers an almost knee-jerk reaction among stock investors (and traders). They will try to interpret the information received, make a forecast, and in some cases even make a trade. It is for this reason that the moment the news is published is often accompanied by a sharp movement in the stock price and an increase in trading volume. The order book now has a lot more players than before. These are traders excited by the news, confident of what will happen next. Here I can’t help but recall the allegory about Crazy Mister Market from Benjamin Graham. It presents the market as a partner who is constantly knocking on your door and offering you crazy ideas (stock prices). Where does this mister get his madness from? My answer is simple — from the news. Despite this, I cannot help but pay attention to the news, I cannot help but interpret it, to build predictions in my head. This happens reflexively, as a reaction to boiling water hitting my skin. However, will I make a trade under the influence of this information? We'll talk about this at the end of the post. Let's find out what news is available and where to find it. In this publication, I will only consider matters relevant to the stock market. That is information that can directly or indirectly affect the state of affairs in the companies. As I work, I divide the news flow into two categories: macro-event and corp-event . A macro-event is something that can indirectly impact the state of affairs in a company since it impacts the external environment in which it lives. For example: 1. In the third quarter, US GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year, which was better than expected (*). GDP Dynamics are a general economic indicator of economic growth in a particular country. This event only indirectly affects the business of the US companies. In other words, a company can be unprofitable even if the GDP in the country of its business is growing. (*) In the news, you will often see the following wording: - better than expected - worse than expected - as expected These are significant clarifications since it is believed that the exchange price already considers expectations for future events. Therefore, the coincidence with expectations will most likely be perceived calmly by market participants. Conversely, price fluctuations can be significant if the news can be qualified as a “surprise”. 2. The EPA is setting rules for a proposed “methane fee” on waste generated by oil and gas companies. This news also refers to macro events, as it impacts an entire industry: the oil and gas business. Moreover, please note that methane fee is only suggested. That is, it is not at all a fact that it will ultimately be implemented. Unlike macro events, a corp-event directly affects the state of affairs in the companies. Let's look at some of them. For example: 3. Hilton's (HLT) 3rd quarter Profit was in line with revenue forecasts. The news contains information about Hilton's financial results for the 3rd quarter. Of course, this directly impacts investors’ assessment of the company's prospects, and therefore the volume of investment in it. 4. Devastating wildfires have forced California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, to plan the sale of gas assets. Based on the news headline, we can conclude that the company is considering selling a significant part of its business (since the word “gas” even appears in the company name) to compensate for the damage from the devastating fires. Of course, this directly points to the difficult situation in the companies. Well, we figured out which news is considered a macro-event and which is a corporate event. Now let's find them where we need to. First, let's look at the event calendars that are available on TradingView. They are convenient because they inform us in advance what event to expect on the date in question. Let's start with the ⁣Economic calendar . You can find it in the main TradingView Products menu (Products -> Economic calendar ). This calendar shows upcoming publications of key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, ⁣ interest rate, unemployment, and inflation. It will also reflect national events — for example, presidential elections. Thus, you will only see macro events in it. Click on globe and select the country you are interested in, a group of countries, or the whole world: this way you will filter events by geography. If you are interested in tracking only important events, there is a special button for this High importance . There is also a three-column importance indicator next to each event. If all are shaded, the event is of maximum importance. You can expand any event, read information about it, view statistics, and even add it to your personal calendar. In terms of importance, the higher the importance of the event, the stronger the market reaction may be after the information is released. Furthermore, the strength of the reaction will depend on how much reality diverges from expectations for this event (with the forecast). Please note that the current value published is published to the left of the forecast, and the value for the previous period is published to the right. This allows you to evaluate the released metric over time. So, my standard set of filters for the economic calendar is: - Geography: all over the world; - High importance; - This week; - All categories. The economic calendar has been set up. There is another calendar on TradingView: this is Earnings calendar . It is located in the interface for working with Supercharts and, of course, is intended for analyzing corporate events. Once you go to the chart, click on the calendar icon in the menu on the right, and the events panel will open in front of you. The Earnings calendar will contain the names of the companies, their next reporting date, and analysts' estimates of earnings per share: EPS. In its meaning, this estimate is an average expectation or forecast. Therefore, any strong discrepancy between current data and the forecast value can greatly change the value of the company's stocks. By the way, you can check this simply by clicking on the company's name in the calendar: the window with the stock price chart will update instantly. The released earnings per share value can be viewed both on the chart itself and in the company's information (the top menu button on the right). The current value will be marked with either a red circle (below the forecast) or a green circle (above the forecast). The gray circle indicates the forecast itself. Calendars are convenient because they present us with the main essence of the news in a compressed, digitized form. The description of such news is not as important as the value of the key indicator. However, if you want to read classic text news about a related company, simply click on the lightning bolt icon on your chart. You can also find news grouped by asset class, region, news agency, etc. in the main menu of the TradingView site's root page. Of the groups presented, I most often use News Flow to get a general context of what is happening. Returning to my decision-making system, there is news (let's call it critical ) that can trigger the closure of a position or non-opening of a position in the shares of a particular company, even though the main indicators do not suggest this. To determine such news, I ask myself three questions: 1. Do I trust this news source? We are surrounded by many sources of news: social networks, news sites, television, etc. It’s easy to check everyone’s reputation on the Internet. Therefore, to take the news into account, you must trust its source. If you see significant news about a company, but it is not in reputable media resources and/or on the company's website, this is a reason to think whether the source is trying to increase its popularity through a loud headline and unverified content. 2. Does this news describe an accomplished fact? Even in reputable publications, you can find publications with versions of events, forecasts, and opinions. This is good food for thought. However, when deciding, I constantly try to separate the standpoint from the fact confirmed by a reliable source. Only facts can be considered when deciding. 3. Is an accomplished fact capable of leading the company to bankruptcy? This is a difficult question that requires an assessment of the company's economic damage, and its comparison with the level of total debt to creditors and current assets. Even if a company is facing bankruptcy, it can be saved by providing assistance from the government or other businesses. Answering this question, I can listen to the opinions of analysts and my intuition. Therefore, this is the most subjective facet of my decision-making system. I just have to tell myself: “Yes, this fact can lead the company to bankruptcy” or vice versa: “No, this news is bad, but it does not pose a critical threat to the business.” So, if I answer “yes” to all three questions, then I can close a position in the shares of a particular company or not open it, guided simply by my “yes, this should be done.” The fact is that critical news comes out now, and reporting on a specific date in the future: there is a time gap between these events. Therefore, I find myself in a situation where I just need to decide and evaluate it later, in the future, based on published reports. It is similar to flying an airplane that fails during transit. The pilot may not fully understand what happened, but the choice must be made right now. If I answer “no” to any of the three questions, then I continue to use other facets of my “crystal” in standard mode, and leave the news “just for my information.” In future publications, I will continue to elaborate on my decision-making system and share my approach to choosing the price and quantity of a stock trade.
SP:SPXEducation
by Be_Capy
The 9 Rules of Successful Investors The world of investing can be a daunting place, especially for beginners . With so many factors to consider and the potential for significant losses, it can be difficult to know where to start. However, there are a few basic rules that all successful investors follow. By following these rules, you can increase your chances of success and avoid costly mistakes. 1. Be prepared to lose money. This is the first and most important rule of investing. No matter how much research you do or how experienced you are, there is always the possibility of losing money. This is why it is important to only invest money that you can afford to lose. 2. Calculate your risk before opening a trade, not during. Before you open any trade, you should always calculate your risk. This means determining how much money you are willing to lose on the trade. You should also set a stop-loss order to automatically close the trade if it reaches a certain price level. 3. Be in a cold state of mind (without the influence of emotions). Emotions can be a major enemy of successful investing. When you are trading, it is important to stay calm and rational. Do not let your emotions get the best of you, as this can lead to making bad decisions. 4. Open positions only in the direction of the trend. One of the best ways to increase your chances of success in trading is to trade in the direction of the trend. This means identifying the overall trend of the market and then trading in line with that trend. 5. Keep a trading journal with a detailed description of each trade. A trading journal is a great way to track your progress and identify areas where you can improve. In your trading journal, you should record details of each trade, such as the date, time, entry price, exit price, and profit or loss. 6. Regularly analyze your trades. Once you have a few trades under your belt, it is important to take some time to analyze them. This will help you identify what you are doing right and what you need to improve on. 7. Constantly improve yourself. The world of trading is constantly evolving, so it is important to keep up with the latest trends and strategies. There are many resources available to help you learn more about trading, such as books, websites, and courses. 8. Give yourself time to rest from trading. Trading can be a stressful activity, so it is important to give yourself time to rest and recharge. Taking breaks from trading will help you stay focused and avoid making emotional decisions. 9. Profit is only what you have taken and have in your pocket (conditionally), not what the open P&L in the position shows, because it is floating and not fixed profit. This is a reminder that profit is not real until you have taken it out of the market. Do not get too attached to your profits, as they can quickly disappear if the market moves against you. Additional Tips for Successful Investing In addition to the 9 rules listed above, there are a few other things you can do to increase your chances of success as an investor: Do your research. Before you invest in any asset, it is important to do your research and understand the risks involved. This includes understanding the asset's fundamentals, as well as the overall market conditions. Diversify your portfolio. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. By diversifying your portfolio, you can reduce your risk and increase your chances of success. Invest for the long term. The stock market is volatile in the short term, but it has historically trended upwards over the long term. By investing for the long term, you can ride out the short-term fluctuations and maximize your returns. Don't panic sell. When the market takes a downturn, it is important to stay calm and avoid panic selling. Selling when the market is down will only lock in your losses. Instead, focus on the long term and ride out the storm. By following these tips, you can increase your chances of success as an investor. However, it is important to remember that there is no guarantee of success. Even the best investors in the world lose money sometimes. The key is to learn from your mistakes and keep moving forward.
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
🔥 How To Time The Market: Become Rich With Ethereum!In this analysis I want to discuss a way to time the market. Or more precise: to time the next ETH market bottom. We don't have a lot of trading data to look at, but we have 2 instances where this strategy has worked. The strategy is simple: buy Ethereum once the weekly RSI is below 30 and enjoy the ride. Every single time that ETH has reached oversold, this was the bear-market bottom for the cycle and ETH pumped. Make your life easier and put an alert on your chart. Might take a few years for the alert to hit, but at least you're going to be prepared. Next time you will actually buy the bottom instead of selling it with this simple trick.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by FieryTrading
8
NIFTY 50 Analysis For Feb 20th!Hello Traders, Here is a Brief Overview About The Analysis of NIFTY 50 For Feb 20th, There Are Total of 2 Support Zones Which You Need To Look For And Same 2 Resistance Zones And To Be Mentioned One Grey Area And We Have 3 Imbalance Zones! The Horizontal Lines From Volume To Volume And OI To OI Indicates The Market Range in Between For That Particular Day! The Blue And Red Arrow Path Showing The Direction of The NIFTY 50 For Tomorrow. Note : Those Levels Are Only For That Particular Day. Please Note That The Only Purpose of The Information On This Page is Purely Educational. We Are Not Registered with SEBI; Therefore, Before Making Any Financial Decisions OR Investing, Please Consult with A SEBI-Qualified Financial Advisor. We Don't Have Any Responsibility For Your Profits OR Losses. I Would Welcome Your Participation And Support in the Form of Likes, Comments, And Follow us to Offer Some Encouragement. Thank You.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by SuccessStrikes
1
XAUUSD | The return to $1900 is getting closer!The price of gold has seen a decline below $2,030, after reaching $2,040 in response to recent changes in inflation trends in the United States. Meanwhile, the yield of the main ten-year US government bond remains steadily above 4.1%, creating hurdles for the XAU/USD currency pair in seeking positive momentum. Currently, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is in a consolidation phase, remaining within a trading range already evident since the beginning of the week. Stronger macroeconomic data from the United States, along with assertive comments from various influential members of the FOMC, indicate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain high interest rates for an extended period. This situation, coupled with growing confidence in "risk" in global stock markets, poses a significant obstacle for gold, traditionally considered a safe haven. Investors remain awaiting the upcoming US consumer inflation data, which could provide crucial insights into the timing and potential frequency of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Downward revisions to December's monthly inflation data, from 0.3% to 0.2%, will help shape the Fed's future decisions. The Fed's readiness to lower interest rates will directly impact the price of gold, reducing its opportunity cost as a non-profitable asset. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool, stands at 51%. The Fed, in considering rate cuts, continues to closely monitor its dual mandate of inflation control and employment promotion. In the context of the US labor market, weekly initial jobless claims data indicate a positive trend, with a steady decrease. Uncertainty about future Fed rate cuts is leading to increased use of the US Dollar by market operators. Personally, I anticipate further liquidation below $2,007, following the downward trend supported by the channel outlined in the chart, followed by a rally up to retest the $2,054 trendline, then a decline towards the $1,920 level. Wishing everyone a good weekend, Nicola.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
USOIL | Downward to $73.50 before touching $80The price of WTI oil maintains an upward direction after Israel rejected Hamas' ceasefire agreement. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, rose by 0.25% towards the end of the North American session, while the conflict between Israel and Hamas intensified with Israel rejecting a ceasefire offer. On Friday, the Israeli army continued its offensive in the Gaza Strip, resulting in a 3% increase in oil prices compared to the previous day. Additionally, refinery closures in the United States led to higher gasoline and diesel prices. Ukraine's attacks on two oil refineries in southern Russia, and the latter exceeding its plans for crude oil exports in February compared to the agreement with OPEC+, favored the increase in WTI prices. WTI Price Analysis: Technical Outlook Oil prices are expected to remain within a range but tilted downwards, as the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $77.29 remains the first resistance level for prices. A breach of the latter could pave the way for further gains towards $80.00 per barrel. However, despite the bullish trend, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has maintained a flat slope, and strong resistance could lead to challenging the 20-day DMA at $74.53. A breach of the latter will expose the recent swing low at $71.46. Currently, with the daily closure of a bearish candle, specifically a doji at the 0.70% Fibonacci level, a downturn is expected to the $73.30 level, where the price could find support and then continue the bullish trend with the goal of reaching the $80 level, i.e., surpassing the buying liquidity level at $79.78. Greetings and have a good start to the week everyone.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
NIFTY 50 Analysis For Feb 19th!Hello Traders, Here is a Brief Overview About The Analysis of NIFTY 50 For Feb 19th, There Are Total of one Support Zones Which You Need To Look For And Same 2 Resistance Zones And To Be Mentioned One Grey Area And There Are 4 Imbalance Zones! The Horizontal Lines From Volume To Volume And OI To OI Indicates The Market Range in Between For That Particular Day! The Blue Arrow Path Showing The Direction of The Nifty 50. Note : Those Levels Are Only For That Particular Day. Please Note That The Only Purpose of The Information On This Page is Purely Educational. We Are Not Registered with SEBI; Therefore, Before Making Any Financial Decisions OR Investing, Please Consult with A SEBI-Qualified Financial Advisor. We Don't Have Any Responsibility For Your Profits OR Losses. I Would Welcome Your Participation And Support in the Form of Likes, Comments, And Follow us to Offer Some Encouragement. Thank You.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by SuccessStrikes
1
CNXFINANCE, FINNIFTY Analysis For Feb 19th!Hello Traders, Here is a Brief Overview About The Analysis of FINNIFTY For Feb 19th, There Are Total of 2 Support Zones Which You Need To Look For And Same 3 Resistance Zones And To Be Mentioned One Grey Area And We Have 4 Imbalance Zones! The Horizontal Lines From Volume To Volume And OI To OI Indicates The Market Range in Between For That Particular Day! The Blue Arrow Path Showing The Direction of The FINNIFTY For Tomorrow. Note : Those Levels Are Only For That Particular Day. Please Note That The Only Purpose of The Information On This Page is Purely Educational. We Are Not Registered with SEBI; Therefore, Before Making Any Financial Decisions OR Investing, Please Consult with A SEBI-Qualified Financial Advisor. We Don't Have Any Responsibility For Your Profits OR Losses. I Would Welcome Your Participation And Support in the Form of Likes, Comments, And Follow us to Offer Some Encouragement. Thank You.
NSE:CNXFINANCELong
by SuccessStrikes
1
Simple management is easier on your mindhi, just wanted to share a couple of thought on management, mainly for new members. in my eyes, there are two categories of management: simple (fixed RR) and more complex (variations of trailing). Both have positive and negative sides. In my eyes, as a very very subjective opinion, simple fixed RR system will be better for most people. Or ok, I'll not speak for most, but for me definitely. Why so: incredible simplicity, cause you just need to test to see how much your trades usually run + create b.e. rule, and you're good to go 3-5RR are usually best for fixed RR systems do not underrestimate the energy that goes into making decisions while managing and waiting, watching for the trade to develop into higher RR's. With fixed you don't have this - you just go b.e. and then you can close the terminal, and go away if needed. However yes, advanced experienced consistent traders would trail almost with no extra emotions, cause it's usually more mechanical. With that said, for many relatevely new traders, trailing could be extra emotional. with fixed, you'll have less chances to become emotional, because of many reasons, for me personally fixed RR system gives a sense of accomplishment on every trade, while with managing I'm constantly thinking how can I manage longer better etc. So I'm rarely satisfied when I'm getting stopped out on trail, cause I'm still "stopped out", while on fixed I have a sense of good work done. I know it's weird, but it's personal experience I could continue, but I guess the general guideline is there. My main message is that TP can be a very simple fixed 3 or 4RR and that would be more than enough and easier for most people's mind have a good weekend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
1
USOIL is approaching $80!The price of Western Texas Intermediate crude oil, the benchmark for US oil, was around $77.50 on Friday. WTI prices rose after weaker-than-expected US retail sales data, fueling hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates in the coming months. The conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian Hamas has yet to see a resolution or significant progress toward a negotiated ceasefire, keeping energy markets nervous about potential spillover into neighboring oil-producing nations like Iran. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) firmly believes that global demand for crude oil will continue to grow over the next two decades, but this perspective is challenged by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which forecasts a decline in global demand in the coming months. The IEA's forecasts predict a slowdown in the growth of global crude oil demand to 1.22 million barrels per day, while OPEC forecasts a long-term increase of more than double that figure. From a technical standpoint, WTI saw its highest bids in nearly three weeks on Friday, testing $78.40 before concluding the week's trading near $78.20 at Friday's close. On the H4 chart, the price is within an upward channel that seems to support the price rally well. However, I expect a slight retracement towards the $75 area, bouncing off the Fibonacci physiological level before heading back towards $80, breaking through the first supply zone and using the second as a resistance level. Nevertheless, the price has good potential to return to November 2023 levels. Regards and happy trading to all.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EURUSD | Will a new rate hike arrive in September?The EUR/USD exchange rate showed a recovery above 1.0750, after touching a daily low near 1.0730 during the American session. This movement was influenced by data from the United States, which indicated an increase in producer inflation in January, higher than expected, and a marginal improvement in consumer confidence in early February. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD remains in a consolidation phase above 1.0750 on Friday, after closing positively in the two previous days. Mixed releases of macroeconomic data from the United States and a positive change in risk sentiment made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to maintain its position, allowing the EUR/USD to extend its recovery. Retail sales in the United States fell by 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, while weekly unemployment claims dropped to 212,000 from 220,000. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a close to 70% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged at the next two monetary policy meetings. Additionally, the euro (EUR) showed a retracement after hitting a new two-day high, as a measure of producer inflation in the United States (US) suggests that the work of the United States Federal Reserve is not yet finished. The EUR/USD fluctuated around the range 1.0770-1.0730 after the PPI data, then stabilizing at current exchange rates. Furthermore, on the European Central Bank front, there was an observation by a member of the Executive Board, Isabel Schnabel, about the need for a restrictive monetary policy, given concerns about a possible inflation rebound. Analyzing an H4 chart, it is evident that the price is in a reversal zone (previous demand zone), within a downtrend channel, I have identified a possible turning point at the level of 1.0824 where the price could rotate and reverse its route towards the level of 1.0650 and the level of 1.0520, the November 2023 minimum. We will see how the price will react during the week and how the operators' sentiment towards the Fed will be. I wish everyone a good weekend, regards Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
USD/JPY: Profitable Strategies in Market TurbulenceThe Japanese yen has strengthened slightly in response to verbal intervention by Japanese authorities. The daily chart shows an upward movement of the pair, with 151.00 as the next resistance level, followed by last year's high of 151.91. USD/JPY reached a three-month peak at 150.81 after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported further confirmation that inflation remains above 3%, albeit slowing down. January's inflation rate exceeded expectations, rising by 3.1% compared to the previous month's 3.4%. Excluding volatile elements, Core CPI remained steady at 3.9% compared to the previous month. Following this data, USD/JPY continued its rise, surpassing 150.00, supported by US Treasury yields. The CME FedWatch indicates that traders seem to be ignoring the possibility of rate cuts in March and May, focusing instead on June. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has shown uncertainty regarding its monetary policy. Although the data suggest potential sustained inflation, uncertainty persists. The Bank of Japan may delay its exit from negative rates. Japanese authorities are ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, as reiterated by Masato Kanda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. The CPI index in the United States exceeded expectations, prompting investors to reconsider their plans for rate cuts and market intervention. We will see what the upcoming data reveal; in the meantime, happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/AUD is expected to reach the level of 1.9440GBP/AUD presents a bullish structure on H4. After the increase in unemployment demand data for Great Britain, the market gained strength by breaking through a supply zone now turned reversal zone, where I now expect a retracement before continuing the uptrend with the target of the supply zone at the level of 1.9440. At that level, two scenarios can be evaluated: a bullish one with the breakout of the zone and the retest before continuing towards 1.96, and a second bearish scenario where a breakout of the bullish trendline is expected with a retest on the lower side of the reversal zone and a continuation short towards 1.92. Stay tuned for further updates, greetings, and happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBP/USD: Impact of UK Inflation and Recovery OutlookGBP/USD has lost its traction and dropped to its lowest level in over a week, near 1.2550, following weak inflation data in the UK on Wednesday. Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that inflation data hadn't really changed their outlook since the February monetary policy decision. After closing in negative territory on Tuesday, GBP/USD continued to decline in Wednesday's European session and touched its lowest level in over a week below 1.2550. The short-term technical outlook suggests that the pair still has room to fall before becoming technically overbought. January's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data triggered a rally in the US dollar during Tuesday's American trading hours and caused a sharp drop in GBP/USD. On a monthly basis, both CPI and Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Both of these figures exceeded analyst estimates and boosted the US dollar. Wednesday morning, the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the annual CPI inflation and core CPI inflation remained steady at 4% and 5.1% respectively. CPI decreased by 0.6% in January, while the monthly Consumer Price Index fell by 0.3%. Although these data aren't weak enough to prompt Bank of England policymakers to consider a policy change, they still make it difficult for the Pound to recover. Inflation is expected to fall to target by spring. What happens to inflation in spring won't determine monetary policy. UK debt demand is strong, has been strong since the beginning of the year. Overall, the situation for the Pound isn't the best considering a likely seasonal dollar rally towards the end of February and March. On the daily chart, a downtrend channel is noticeable after a retest in the supply zone and Fibonacci level 0.705, while I await a breakout of the demand zone at levels 1.2549 and 1.2448, then a retest on the lower side of the same zone and subsequently a bounce at level 1.2320, where we have an additional demand zone and a sensitive Fibonacci level. Upon reaching that level, it will be interesting to evaluate potential upward movement. Greetings and happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBPNZD: Will it have the force to go long? YESThe GBPNZD situation presents a bearish structure, highlighted by three recent touches on the trendline. However, it currently sits within a demand zone on H4, where yesterday I observed a bounce at the 62% Fibonacci level, supported by an H4 candle. This bounce, in my opinion, is worthy of consideration. Shortly after, the market experienced an uptick, also supported by the demand zone, with a structural change to the upside on M15. If we had entered the position yesterday, the trade would still be open and showing a modest profit. Currently, the goal is to await a retest of the demand zone before transitioning from an H4 to an M15 chart, where I will assess whether there will be a structural change to the upside for a long entry. Additionally, I will move my entry directly to the market if the last bearish candle before the impulse shows a pin bar or a doji. Otherwise, if it's a bearish structure candle, I will place a buy limit at the high of that candle. In the event this scenario occurs, my target will be the 2.0952 level, where a previous high with liquidity yet to be filled is located. I will keep you updated on the situation's developments. Best regards and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1