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US30 After the FED, 36,000 incoming!Regarding yesterday's trading day: Checked progress for the American index, which closed up by 0.66%. The start of the day was quite promising for the index, marking an initial price at 33,988.8 points, staying above the peaks from November 2nd and continuing to rise during the session. Currently, the short-term outlook for the Dow Jones indicates a strong ascent with a target set at 34,438.8. In case of a temporary correction, the immediate target is seen at 33,306.4. However, expectations are for the curve to rise further to reach the peak at 35,571.1. Resistance 2: 34,438.8 Resistance 1: 34,061.3 Support 1: 32,551.5 Support 2: 0.7642
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
10
GOLD Pullback and then Target 2100.On Friday, the XAU/USD pair reached an intraday high of just under $2,005, in response to the disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which marked the weakest performance in almost three years. However, Gold prices managed to recover to the midrange of the day's trading, ultimately closing near $1,992.50. The NFP report for the US fell short of expectations, revealing that the US added only 150 thousand jobs in October, a significant decline from the previous month's robust figure of 297 thousand job additions, which had already been revised downward from the initial estimate of 336K. Market expectations were initially set at 180K for the October reading. This headline miss led to a surge in global markets as investors welcomed the potential halt to Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. Earlier in the week, Gold reached a weekly high of $2,008 but later dipped to a low of $1,970. Despite the disappointing NFP report, Gold faced challenges in securing substantial gains. This is due to the prevailing caution among investors regarding cooling US economic data. Inflation and excessive wage growth continue to be pivotal concerns for the Fed. Therefore, a single subpar NFP reading is unlikely to alter the Fed's stance on maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period. Currently, money markets are pricing in the likelihood of a full percentage point interest rate cut by the end of 2024, but this projection may be premature, given the Fed's efforts to manage price volatility. In the near term, Spot Gold bids indicate the formation of a rising channel, with XAU/USD trading on the positive side of the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is currently trending upward from $1,985. As shown on the chart, in the weekly timeframe, gold broke out of a bearish channel after bouncing in the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone. It is currently at the level of 1992 and may experience a pullback to around 1910 before resuming its upward move towards 2100. Let me know what you think, and I wish everyone a great weekend. Regards from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
GBP/USD Pullback expected before reaching 1.24Analysis of GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is on the rise towards the 1.2400 level to conclude a trading week that has seen the pair mostly fluctuate around the averages. After the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data came in well below expectations, the British Pound (GBP) has seen a 1.6% increase from Friday's opening bids near 1.2190, and the GBP/USD is up almost 2.5% from the week's lows of 1.2095. US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 150,000 in October versus the forecast of 180,000. The US NFP figures fell short of expectations, marking the worst headline figure in nearly three years. The US added 150,000 new jobs in October, missing the market forecast of 180,000 and well below September's figure, which was revised downward from the initial print of 336,000. The failure to meet US employment targets is dragging the US Dollar (USD) lower across the market as investors shift towards risk assets, despite the deteriorating US labor data, which is counterintuitively inspiring investors to move out of safe havens. Weaker US economic data could lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reconsider interest rate decisions, as investors look for signs that the Fed may accelerate the program of potential rate cuts. Technical Outlook for GBP/USD: The Sterling's ascent driven by the NFP data is pushing the GBP/USD straight through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), aiming directly for the 1.2400 level and preparing to challenge the 200-day SMA, which is currently moving sideways from 1.2435. GBP/USD has recently oscillated between 1.2300 and 1.2100, and a bearish fallback would see the pair sliding towards multi-month lows around the 1.2000 major level. I personally expect a pullback to around 1.2160, where the price could then reverse to head towards 1.24. Let me know your thoughts, and happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
DKNG DraftKings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on DKNG here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DKNG DraftKings prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 30usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2024-1-19, for a premium of approximately $1.93. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:DKNGLong
by TopgOptions
ARDX Ardelyx Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t bought ARDS before it went up 6X: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ARDX Ardelyx prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 4usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2024-1-19, for a premium of approximately $0.45. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:ARDXLong
by TopgOptions
NZD/USD Long Trade with a RR 1:2The NZD/USD exchange rate is steadily advancing on Thursday, driven by an improved risk appetite fueled by speculations that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) has finished raising interest rates. As a result, a decrease in US Treasury bond yields has weakened the US Dollar (USD), providing support for the pair. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD is trading at 0.5898, marking a gain of over 0.60%. Despite the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged within the 5.25%-5.50% range, its chairman, Jerome Powell, made some comments that were largely overlooked by market participants. Consequently, traders in the interest rate futures markets are anticipating the first rate cut by the Fed to occur by June 2024, with odds currently at 67.80%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. I'm sharing the trade with the community in the pre-American session, entering at the level of 0.59 with a target of 0.6025 and a stop loss at the level of 0.5839, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:2. Let me know what you think, happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
USDJPY Bullish target to 152 post-Fed.The USD/JPY cross remains stable near the 151.00 level as the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, as widely expected by the markets. However, the lack of significant changes in the Fed's rate statement leaves investors uncertain about a possible rate hike in December to close out the year. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is on a two-day upward trajectory, supported by elevated U.S. Treasury yields. Currently, the index is trading higher near 106.70 at the time of writing. Additionally, the market expects the upcoming monetary policy decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve, indicating that the central bank will maintain its current monetary policy in the Wednesday meeting. Investors will closely monitor the post-meeting communication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), eager to obtain insights that can help assess the potential path of interest rates. Data-driven considerations for December add an extra layer of dynamic anticipation to the market. Traders will also watch key indicators such as the U.S. ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI for October in the North American session. USD/JPY is trading around 151.20 during the Asian session on Wednesday, retracing from the annual highs reached after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) removed the 1% ceiling for the 10-year government bond yield on Tuesday. Following the adjustment of the yield curve control (YCC), BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has adopted a notably accommodative stance. He expressed concerns about inflation not definitively reaching the BoJ's long-term targets. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hirokazu Matsuno, engaged in verbal intervention to support the yen. He emphasized the importance of currencies moving in a stable manner that reflects fundamentals and expressed disapproval of rapid foreign exchange (FX) fluctuations. While refraining from commenting on specific FX levels, Matsuno did not rule out the possibility of taking measures to address disorderly FX movements. Moreover, the unexpected decline in China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.5 in October, down from September's expansion at 50.6, as reported in the latest Wednesday data, has added pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). On the daily chart, it's also possible to observe that the market is bouncing within an ascending channel since the end of August. Currently, it's at the 150.90 level, and from here, it could bounce to the 149.70 level, which corresponds to the 0.705 Fibonacci level before continuing the ascent towards 152 and beyond. Comment and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EUR/USD Before NFP and post FED, direction 1.07?The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently trading at around 1.0600 in the European morning on Thursday. This movement is largely influenced by several key factors. First, there is sustained weakness in the US dollar, following the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to extend its pause in monetary policy changes. Additionally, comments made by the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, during the press conference, have contributed to this dollar weakness, as he emphasized the need for persistent long-term yield increases to influence monetary policy. Powell also noted that monetary policy is currently restrictive. As a result, the euro has gained strength, pushing the EUR/USD exchange rate above 1.0580 in the early Asian session on Thursday. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at about 1.0597, marking a 0.26% increase for the day. The recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting played a significant role in shaping market sentiment. The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, as widely expected. However, it has opened the door to another rate hike, although there is a sense of caution regarding enthusiasm in pursuing it. This cautious approach has led to a decline in the US dollar, as many now believe that the rate hike cycle may have come to an end. Regarding economic data, private sector employment growth in the United States for October saw a modest increase but remained below market expectations, rising by 113,000 units, below the consensus of a 150,000-unit increase. However, JOLTS job openings unexpectedly improved, reaching 9.553 million openings, surpassing the expectation of 9.25 million. However, the ISM manufacturing PMI for October dropped to 46.7, the lowest value since July, reflecting a challenging economic environment. On the other side of the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged last week, but the outlook suggests that interest rate cuts may be on the horizon in the second quarter of next year. This stance is driven by disinflationary pressures and concerns about weak GDP growth, with PMI data indicating an increased risk of a recession in the Eurozone. Recent economic indicators for the Eurozone have been mixed. The Eurozone's preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for October recorded an annual increase of 2.9%, down from the previous reading of 4.3% and below market expectations. The core HICP also decreased from 4.5% to 4.2%. The Eurozone's GDP for the third quarter (Q3) declined by 0.1% on a quarterly basis and grew only 0.1% on an annual basis, both below market expectations. In the H4 chart, my personal view is bullish, but currently, the price is in a supply zone, which could potentially bring the price back to the 1.0560 area, namely within a demand zone that has been supporting the EUR/USD since October 6th. So, I would personally look for a long entry at the M15 if and only if the price retraces to the demand zone and target 1.07. I remind you that the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is due tomorrow, so I advise caution as any scenario could change. Please leave a like and comment in support of our work. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
GOLD Approaching 2,100 After NFP Data!Price Movement: Gold is on an upward trajectory, nearing the $2,000 mark. This is attributed to negative US Jobless Claims data, which is impacting the US Dollar. Additionally, US Treasury bond yields have breached the 4.70% level. Trading Strategy: Traders are adopting a "buy the dips" strategy in gold, as long as it remains above the critical support level at $1,963. Technical Indicators: The 14-day RSI suggests the potential for further price increases. Several SMAs, including the 21- and 50-day and 21- and 100-day, indicate a bullish trend. A daily closing above the 200-day SMA could signal sustained upside. Resistance and Support Levels: The immediate resistance is at $1,993, and a break above this level could retest the $2,000 threshold. To maintain the uptrend, acceptance above $2,009 is crucial. On the downside, if $1,963 support is breached, a drop to the $1,950 level is possible, and further decline could test the October 19 low of $1,945. Market Factors: Gold's recovery is influenced by a decrease in US Treasury bond yields following the FOMC policy meeting, where the Federal Reserve left the key policy rate unchanged. Jerome Powell's comments, while not ruling out another rate hike, were perceived as less hawkish than expected, which weakened the US Dollar and boosted gold. Mixed Economic Data: The US Dollar faced headwinds from mixed economic data, including lower-than-expected private sector payrolls and a drop in the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Market Sentiment: Market sentiment is also influenced by the potential for future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with some investors paring back expectations of a rate increase in December and January. Global Events: The safe-haven US Dollar is undermined by a global risk rally, overshadowing geopolitical conflicts like the Hamas-Israel situation. Bank of England Decision: Gold traders are keeping an eye on the Bank of England's monetary policy decision, which is expected to remain unchanged. A dovish BoE stance could impact currency markets and indirectly affect gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EUR/USD: Bullish channel and target of 1.07Last Tuesday, EUR/USD experienced a decline, currently consolidating around 1.0570 after dropping from weekly highs just above 1.0550. The US dollar remains strong in anticipation of the FOMC decision and crucial US employment data. On the daily chart of EUR/USD, the price reversed its direction near the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) but remains above the 20-day SMA on closing. Looking at the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD found support along a short-term uptrend line and is currently trading around the 20-period SMA. Technical indicators offer an unclear picture. A bounce above 1.0600 would strengthen the euro's prospects, targeting the next resistance level at 1.0630, while consolidation below 1.0560 would signal potential weakness. EUR/USD initially reached weekly highs but then reversed course on Tuesday due to a stronger US dollar in anticipation of US employment and FOMC meeting data. Inflation and growth data in Europe came in below expectations. Data from the Eurozone showed a slowdown in inflation in October, with the annual rate dropping to 2.9% from 4.8%, below the market consensus of 3%. Even core inflation dropped to 4.2%, in line with forecasts. Growth data also showed an unexpected contraction of 0.1%, making it likely that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its current position in December. Now, attention shifts to US data and the FOMC meeting. US data on Tuesday presented mixed results, including a decrease in consumer confidence, a 1.1% increase in labor costs in the third quarter, and a drop to 44 in the Chicago PMI index. On Wednesday, the ADP employment report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released before the FOMC statement. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, which could result in a relatively minor event. However, with a focus on Chairman Powell and his team, increased volatility is anticipated. In fact, I expect a neutral day tomorrow in anticipation of the Fed, despite my long-term trend, as seen on the chart. Let me know what you think. Regards, Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
SPX daily reality check in. $4200-$4600 WHERE?!?!I hear everyone telling their followers to plan on trading in the $4200-$4600 range until further notice etc. My only question is this range in the room with us now? Am I missing something? Should we just begin to Yolo Calls? If your going to update you followers Daily or even Weekly should the information not be ACTIONABLE to your traders. Especially on #Ct = X where most clearly state they make trades daily and look to bank profits daily. How exactly does this work? Sounds like a great way to get rekt. How about we first focus on getting back into the $4200 range and then seeing if we can turn that into support. Until that happens lets first watch for these areas at $4180-$4190 until broken through. Not to say that cannot or will not happen today. But shouldn't that be on the radar for traders following you if your going to send them a daily update in the morning?
SP:SPX
by rarebreed29
GOLD Route map from 1850 to 2050!Gold Price Movement: Initially, gold underwent a downward correction following a recent rally but then reversed its course, moving toward the $2,000 level. This suggests ongoing interest from buyers in establishing long positions. Moving Averages: On the daily chart, the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has turned upward, indicating a bullish trend. It is situated below longer-term moving averages. Technical Indicators: Technical indicators on the daily chart are in overbought territory, but they have only slightly retreated from recent highs. This suggests that a significant decline is not confirmed. Short-Term Outlook: The 4-hour chart indicates a positive bias, even though momentum has decreased. XAU/USD is trading above its moving averages, with the 20-period SMA providing intraday support. Market Dynamics: Demand for safe-haven assets like gold and the US Dollar has lessened, possibly due to ongoing developments in the Middle East, including Israel's ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. Upcoming Events: Market participants are closely monitoring central bank announcements. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England are all set to make announcements in the upcoming week. There are rumors that the Bank of Japan may make changes to its yield-curve control policy. US Employment Data: The US is scheduled to release the October Nonfarm Payrolls report soon, a crucial economic indicator that can significantly impact market sentiment. Stock Markets and Treasury Yields: Stock markets are trading positively, and Treasury yields are rising. However, these factors have not provided robust support for the US Dollar.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
EUR/USD Bullish Signs Pre-Fed?During the American session on Monday, EUR/USD continued to rise, surpassing the 1.0600 level. This upward movement was driven by optimism in the financial markets, highlighted by the positive performance on Wall Street, which weakened the US dollar. EUR/USD is currently in a technically neutral position but with a clear upward trend. In the 4-hour chart, conditions favor further gains as the pair is trading above all of its moving averages, although the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains below the longer ones. Technical indicators are well positioned above reference lines, showing no signs of bullish trend exhaustion. The previous week was characterized by optimism in the financial markets, thanks to Qatar's diplomatic intervention in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Even though Israel initiated a military operation in the Gaza Strip over the weekend, the cautious approach did not trigger strong demand for safe-haven assets, influencing the decline of the US dollar. Additionally, the preliminary estimate of Germany's third-quarter GDP showed a 0.1% annual contraction, which was better than market expectations of a 0.3% decline. Meanwhile, the Euro Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator for October remained stable at -17.9, in line with previous readings and market expectations. Peter Kazimir, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, stated that it is still too early to claim that the interest rate hike cycle is over, emphasizing that policymakers cannot guarantee the completion of the job. He also addressed the issue of rate cuts, stating that betting on rate cuts in the first half of next year is out of place. Finally, Germany released a preliminary estimate of the October Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which stood at 3% on an annual basis, down from 4.3% in September and below the expected 3.6%. Regarding economic events in the United States, the only expected data was the October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, which was previously at -18.1. Therefore, a bullish trend with a retracement towards 1.055 is expected for tomorrow before continuing upward towards 1.0680. Let me know your thoughts, comment, and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
GBP/USD Fed and BoE, price heading towards 1.23The GBP/USD exchange rate is slightly higher above 1.2100 at the beginning of the Monday European session, but traders remain cautious due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming meetings of major central banks. During the Asian session, the exchange rate remains within a narrow range around the 1.2100 level. Traders are awaiting significant central bank events scheduled for this week, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on Wednesday and the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday. The Fed is expected to confirm the maintenance of interest rates for the second time in November, although there are still speculations about a possible rate hike later in the year. These speculations are supported by positive macroeconomic data from the United States, indicating a resilient economy. On the other hand, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged due to concerns about a possible recession, but it may leave the door open for further monetary tightening to combat inflation. This uncertainty is holding back traders from taking directional positions on the British Pound (GBP), and the lack of buying interest suggests that the most likely trend for the exchange rate is downward. However, bears should wait for acceptance below the 1.2100 level before entering new positions. There are no significant economic data scheduled for Monday from either the UK or the US. Therefore, US Treasury bond yields will continue to influence the dynamics of the US Dollar (USD) and provide short-term trading opportunities for the GBP/USD exchange rate. Additionally, broader market sentiment will affect the demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven. Given the complex market variables, caution is advisable before entering new directional trades. Additionally, the price is slightly outside a demand zone and is consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. A bullish trend is starting to take shape, and I personally expect a bounce on the trendline before considering a potential long entry with a target of 1.225. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to all, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
Will GBP/USD reach 1.23 before the FED?The Pound Sterling (GBP) is facing challenges in its attempt to surpass a critical resistance level at 1.2140, primarily due to the strength of the US Dollar. This strength has diminished investors' risk appetite, and as a result, the GBP/USD pair could potentially retreat to its lowest point in seven months. The reason for this setback lies in the UK economy, which is grappling with the repercussions of the Bank of England (BoE) raising interest rates in response to persistent consumer inflation. Significant declines in business activities, labor demand, and retail sales have been observed, largely attributed to the pressure on household budgets caused by high inflation. Inflation risks persist due to robust wage growth, casting doubts among market participants about whether UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak can fulfill his promise to reduce headline inflation to 5.4% by the year's end. As the Pound Sterling makes a sharp recovery from 1.2070, it encounters substantial resistance near the 1.2140 level. The GBP/USD pair faces challenges in maintaining its upward trajectory, with market sentiment dampened by escalating geopolitical tensions. The short-term trend remains bearish, indicated by the gradual descent of both the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). A breach of Thursday's low could potentially expose the psychological support level at the key figure of 1.2000.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
Will EUR/USD outpace the Fed? 1.07?The US dollar gained momentum last Friday following news of an Israeli ground operation expansion in Gaza. Stocks declined, while gold and crude oil prices rose. Meanwhile, EUR/USD took a step back towards 1.0550, erasing daily gains. If the pair surpasses this level and uses it as support, the next bullish targets could be set at 1.0600 (200-period simple moving average) and 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). On the downside, intermediate support is at 1.0520 (static level) before 1.0500 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0450 (end of the last bearish trend). EUR/USD touched 1.0500 in response to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decisions on Thursday but managed to recover above 1.0550. The ECB announced that it would keep key interest rates unchanged after ten consecutive increases. In its policy statement, the bank emphasized that interest rates at current levels, if maintained for a sufficiently long period, would significantly contribute to achieving the inflation target. Lagarde stated that it is premature to discuss interest rate cuts and added that they won't say they have reached the maximum rate. In the last two weeks, investors have moved away from risk-related assets in anticipation of the weekend due to concerns of further escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. If risk flows continue to dominate later in the day, the US dollar (USD) may find it challenging to maintain its position, which could facilitate an increase in EUR/USD. I also note that the price has been in the same demand area for days, accumulating for an imminent move. Targeting 1.07 for the next direction. Let me know what you think, happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Can You Explain Your Trading Strategy in 3 Sentences?Can you explain your trading strategy in 3 sentences or less? Go ahead and give it a try in the comments below. This is an important exercise for any trader of investor as it demonstrates mastery of an existing strategy. Meaning, if a trader knows their strategy inside and out, and has practiced it or modified it over a period of time, they also can explain it quickly and succinctly. • Are you a swing trader? What criteria determines a trade? • Are you a value investor? What metrics do you use? • Are you an algorithmic trader? What code powers your trading? All of these questions and more go into explaining your trading strategy, which is ultimately the process you're using to trade markets. However, it's often observed that new traders don't have a strategy. Instead, their trades are impulsive and random. As a community, we can use the comments section below to showcase our individual levels of expertise, helping new traders along the way and watching pro traders innovate. We look forward to seeing what everyone writes in the comments below. In addition, the more people who share, the more we can learn. Be sure to like, follow, and comment on the traders who have the most interesting answers. You may find a great follow and improve your social feed here. - TradingView Team
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by TradingView
323
EUR/USD Uptrend Imminent After ECBDuring the American session, EUR/USD gained momentum, benefiting from a weaker US dollar, surpassing the 1.0550 level, and erasing previous losses. The US dollar's retreat occurred despite positive US growth data, which were influenced by lower Treasury yields. EUR/USD reached a new weekly low below 1.0550 early on Thursday, after closing in negative territory for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) outperformed its peers midweek, supported by rising US Treasury bond yields. Additionally, the negative shift observed in market sentiment following the news of Israel preparing for a ground operation allowed the US dollar to find demand as a safe haven. Markets remain cautious early on Thursday, with US stock index futures and the Euro Stoxx 50 trading in the red. Investors anticipate that the US economy will register an annualized growth of 4.2% in the third quarter. A disappointing reading at or below 3.5% could weaken the US dollar with an initial reaction. I also note how the price, after Lagarde's statements, began to accumulate in the H4 demand zone after a significant liquidity drawdown. Currently, I'm considering a purchase at M15. I will observe the market tomorrow during the London session before the opening of the American market and ahead of the release of new macroeconomic data. Let me know what you think, leave a like, and comment. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY Bullish Triangle Targeting 155?The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently declining towards 150.00 in a delayed response to the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data beat, with a modest drop in the US dollar contributing to the current descent of the pair. Attention is now focused on the US PCE inflation. The USD/JPY exchange rate recently surpassed the significant psychological level of 150.00, extending the overall uptrend. The pair is bullish on a long-term, intermediate, and short-term basis. The pair has completed what appears to be an ascending triangle on the daily chart and has broken above the October 3 highs at 150.16, confirming a breakout. Although the breakout has not been particularly decisive (Thursday's breakout candle is a 'Doji,' indicating indecision), the price will likely continue higher, given the dominant uptrend. The technical target of the triangle is around 152. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator shows bearish divergence with price when compared to the October 3 high. This happens when price makes a higher high, but momentum fails to follow suit. This suggests underlying weakness in the uptrend and increases the risk that the triangle breakout may be 'false.' Further confirmation of the ongoing uptrend would come with a re-break above Thursday's highs at 150.80. It's worth noting that triangles are sometimes precursors to trend reversals, indicating that the current uptrend may be approaching its culmination point. Initially, the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the US Dollar (USD), which benefited from safe-haven flows and higher US yields. Later, the JPY was supported by probable intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) after the USD/JPY rate crossed the 150 defensive line, a level traditionally defended by the MoF. US data released on Thursday showed an unexpected increase in America's GDP to 4.9% in Q3 on an annualized basis, solidly beating consensus estimates of 4.2%. US Durable Goods Orders rose 4.7% versus estimates of 1.5%, and Initial Jobless Claims increased to 210K versus 208K expected. Despite being mostly positive, the data did not benefit the US dollar, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) registered a slight drop after the data, with DXY down 0.1% just over an hour after the releases. Therefore, it will be interesting to see further price reactions on the upper side of the triangle to evaluate possible trend continuations. In case of an upward move, the level of 155 seems more than achievable. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Is XAUUSD heading to 1950?The price of gold XAU/USD appears to be reacting only modestly to the recent positive momentum of the US dollar and the increase in US Treasury yields. Currently, the immediate resistance is positioned at $1,988. If surpassed, gold buyers could target the five-month highs at $1,997 and the $2,000 threshold. On the other hand, in the event of an upward rejection, we may see support at $1,963 during a correction, with the psychological level of $1,950 as the possible next level. Gold sellers may attempt to test the October 19th low at $1,945 in case of a decline. Investors have sought refuge in gold and the US dollar due to the rise in US Treasury yields and tensions in the Hamas-Israel conflict. They are also cautious about high-risk assets while awaiting the preliminary US GDP report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's outlook. Tensions in the Middle East could support the price of gold in the short term, but US economic data could shift focus to the future of Federal Reserve interest rates. The ECB is considering changes in its tightening program, with a focus on its president's message. Furthermore, the price has broken a swing high at the $1,985 level and has started to descend manually. I will assess whether to enter the market to ride this descent during London or after the New York opening. Let me know what you think, leave a like, and comment. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Trading strategyA trading strategy encompasses a set of guidelines for initiating a position. A trading system encompasses a set of rules for consistently profitable trading. This involves a clear comprehension of your strategy, specifying the assets you trade, the setups you utilize, the risk involved, preferred timeframes, and other pertinent details. Consistency: A meticulously crafted action plan serves as a tool to maintain a steady trading strategy while minimizing the sway of emotions on your decision-making. Such consistency often yields more predictable results and enhances overall performance over time. Confidence: Equipped with a playbook, you can trade with increased self-assurance, knowing that you are following a tried-and-tested strategy. This confidence alleviates stress and anxiety, enabling you to maintain focus and make sound decisions. Adaptability: In the face of shifting market conditions, having a playbook at your disposal empowers you to adjust and fine-tune your strategies as needed. This adaptability is a critical factor in staying ahead and sustaining success in the constantly evolving realm of trading. 4 distinct components that constitute a trading strategy: Context: Context encompasses the surroundings and circumstances related to a trading idea or event. It is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the situation and is vital for maximizing the potential of your trading strategy. Many traders erroneously believe that a trading strategy is simply about identifying patterns or triggers along with basic risk management. For instance, some may focus on trading Order Blocks. However, the key to making Order Blocks a profitable tool lies in applying the correct context. Patterns: The second component involves identifying the triggers or patterns that dictate when to enter a position. Context is applied to these triggers for in-depth analysis, aligning them with the risk-to-reward parameters defined in your trading system. Triggers can vary widely and should be chosen according to your individual trading style and strategy. Position Management: Inexperienced traders often find themselves overwhelmed when they enter a position, leading to irrational decisions. Defining a repeatable process for managing your trades is essential. This process should align with the goals set out in your trading strategy. For instance, if your strategy aims for a risk-to-reward ratio of 3R or higher, your approach will differ from someone targeting a minimum of 1.5R. To ensure consistency, it's crucial to avoid excessive discretion when managing positions, such as attempting to achieve a 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio, placing short stops, or averaging down. Instead, aim for strict consistency, gradually honing your skills. Risk Management: The final facet of any trading system is risk management. Poor risk management is a leading cause of trader failures. It often results from excessive leverage and a lack of understanding. Your risk management plan doesn't need to be overly complex, but it must be clear and diligently adhered to. By following a robust risk management strategy, you can avoid the pitfalls that ensnare many inexperienced traders who destroy their accounts due to reckless trading practices. It may vary depending on your trading style, but for day trading I recommend the following: * 1% maximum risk per trade * 2% maximum per day * 6% maximum per week * 10% maximum per month 6 essential steps to build and refine your trading strategy: Determine Your Trading Style: Start by defining your trading style, whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor. This choice guides your selection of appropriate strategies, time frames, and risk management techniques. For instance, specify your preferred win rate (e.g., 50%+), risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2R minimum), and trading style (e.g., scalping, position trading, or swing trading). Research and Select Strategies: Explore various trading strategies and choose the ones that align with your trading style, risk tolerance, and financial objectives. You may want to consider strategies like Smart Money trading, which could be particularly beneficial. Define Entry and Exit Criteria: For each selected strategy, outline precise entry and exit criteria. Determine your stop loss and profit targets to ensure you execute trades accurately and limit potential losses. It's crucial to establish a well-defined trade management plan that guides step-by-step position management. For example, decide to move your position to break-even when a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio is reached, open trades exclusively with a 1:2 ratio, or close 50% of your position at 1:1 and the remaining 50% at 1:3. Establish Risk Management Rules: Implement robust risk management rules to safeguard your capital. These rules might include setting a maximum percentage of your account balance to risk per trade or using Expert Advisors to automatically determine position sizing for risk control. Test Your Strategies: Prior to committing real capital, test your strategies using historical market data or a demo account. This testing phase allows you to refine your strategy and build confidence in your approach. If you cannot achieve positive results on a demo account, it's advisable to avoid risking real money until you've honed your skills. Analyze Your Trades: Maintain a comprehensive trade journal recording the strategy used, entry and exit points, and relevant market conditions for each trade. Regularly review your trade results to pinpoint areas for improvement and adapt your trading plan accordingly. Analyzing your trades is crucial for continuous growth as a trader. 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BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Crypto4light
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