Option TradingOption Trading work based on a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell a certain asset, at a predetermined price (strike price) within a certain time period.
A very simple task, but is there a clear technical analysis method that can provide consecutive wins?
This post is not trading advice, just a statistical hypothesis test. I will try in 100 candles, and stop if the win rate is below 70%
If you are an options trader, or are interested in learning the system I use, please follow this post.
Strategy
INTU Intuit Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't bought INTU ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of INTU Intuit prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 560usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-12-1,
for a premium of approximately $11.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ADSK Autodesk Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought ADSK ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ADSK Autodesk prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 210usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-11-24,
for a premium of approximately $4.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
BITCOIN 15 MINUTES STRATEGY This is 15 minutes chart and we are targeting a TP of 38416.74 aiming the highest of 15 time frame on a pennant chart.
This is our short term analysis as when we go to daily time frame we see a strong Billish confirming a continuation of a weekly bullish.
By then we are aiming a TP of 40848.00
Please leave your opinion on a comment box
Deep dive into SmartBot strategy [Skyrex]Overview
The system is designed to continuously monitor assets price movements, identifying formation of bases, and providing alert notifications when these bases and/or layers are either breached or adhered to. System settings are adjusted by machine learning model applied to historical price action data.
Release Notes
These major features and enhancements were introduced since the first launch of the system in
November 2021
Enhanced script efficiency for faster compilation and integration;
Introduced a "Layer Settings" section for customized layer configurations;
Added options for setting a take profit percentage;
Exchange commissions implemented into statistic calculations;
Implemented a new "Take Profit" plot series, including a data point in the data window, to
facilitate trade closure at the current base line;
Added a plot series to display emerging bases during active trades on the current base line;
Introduced an option to make custom early trade exits including after reaching breakeven;
Implemented a setting for enhanced trade exit strategies;
Adjusted the minimum layer value for Layer 1 to exchanges’ “minNotional” filter;
Modified the start month condition to a calendar month basis for improved initial rendering of base lines;
Consolidated all "Layer # Cracked" and "Layer # Respected" X-crosses into a unified "Layer # Cross" set to streamline the Data Window list;
Eliminated base/layer line shifts to the Base Marker to simplify chart rendering calculations;
Added option to set custom exit conditions at each Layer;
System is rebuilt from PineScript programming language to Python using libraries: TA-lib,
python-binance, CCXT, scikit-learn;
Implementation of Machine Learning based on scikit-learn;
Added Bayesian classifier and obtain the corrected indicator’s values;
Implemented labeled Elliott wave data once a month for additional model training;
Enhanced Signal Issuance Module based on Python 3.10, making decisions based on model
predictions, and sending trading signals according to the second-level trading strategy algorithm, implemented using the TA-lib library, in the form of a JSON file to the panel via Webhook;
Enhanced integration of Fractal DCA system with Machine Learning extension to ensure
seamless and adjusted to market conditions signals production for SmartBot public beta test
launch;
System structure
Identification of Bases
The system is engineered to detect pivot lows within a fractal configuration, subsequently verifying their eligibility as bases in alignment with the principles of fractal strategy trading1. The validation process for a pivot low encompasses several checks:
Confirmation that the rate of change in price during declines and rebounds surpasses a
specified threshold;
Verification that the volume at the pivot low exceeds the moving average of volume,
determined by a predefined length;
Assurance that the volume magnitude significantly exceeds the moving average of volume;
Assessment to ensure that the newly identified base is sufficiently distanced from the
previous range, employing a specific percentage difference threshold in price.
Understanding Fractal Patterns
A fractal pattern represents a repetitive configuration observable on price charts, which is
instrumental in forecasting reversals amidst broader, more erratic price movements. These
fundamental fractals typically consist of five or more bars. The criteria for fractal identification are as follows:
A bearish turning point is identified by a pattern where the central bar has the highest high, flanked by two lower highs on each side.
A bullish turning point is marked by a pattern where the central bar has the lowest low,
surrounded by two higher lows on each side.
The fractals depicted in figure below exemplify ideal patterns. It is important to note that while numerous
variations of less perfect patterns may occur, the essential structure of the fractal must be
preserved for its validity.
A notable limitation of fractals as a system is their inherent nature as lagging indicators. Specifically, a fractal cannot be established until a minimum of three bars have completed on the price chart. In the context of the Fractal trading strategy, it is the bullish fractal pattern that is utilized for base identification.
The system is equipped with a feature that permits customization of the number of bars that
constitute the bullish fractal. The default configuration is set to a 6-bar fractal pattern. This pattern is instrumental in validating price declines and subsequent rebounds. In the latest update, the algorithm has been modified to accommodate a more flexible approach in analyzing the lows of each bar during these declines and rebounds. Instead of requiring a strictly ascending sequence, the revised algorithm focuses on confirming that the pivot point is indeed the lowest, and that the observed declines and rebounds surpass the pre-established ranges.
Validation of Cracks and Bounces
The process of validating cracks and bounces begins with the identification of a bullish fractal
pattern, as per the system's fractal pattern settings. Upon recognizing such a pattern, the system
counts the bars to the left and right of the lowest pivot point and then calculates the Price Rate of
Change (ROC).
The Price Rate of Change is a momentum indicator that quantifies the percentage difference in
price between the current price and the price from a specified number of periods ago. The ROC is determined using the following formula:
ROC = (Most recent closing price - Closing price n periods ago) / Closing price n periods ago x 100
As demonstrated in figure below, the system employs a 3-3 fractal pattern to calculate the ROC. In this example, the ROC for the Price Drop was computed to be 33.97%, and the ROC for the Price Bounce was 35.93%. These two values are then compared against the predefined “Minimum Price Drop (%)” and “Minimum Price Bounce (%)” settings.
Should the ROC values for both Price Drop and Bounce surpass the established thresholds, the
base is deemed valid and qualifies for additional validation. Settings either of these parameters to zero (0) implies that the system will bypass this validation step and accept any bullish fractal pattern as valid
Volume Validation Methodology
In accordance with the principles of Fractal trading, volume plays a crucial role in validating a base. It is primarily used to corroborate the market's robust response in preventing a further decline in price. This is typically evidenced by a "spike" in volume on the price chart, signaling a strong market reaction to the current price level.
Moreover, the Fractal trading system acknowledges that volume analysis is particularly pertinent at lower timeframes, where block trades occur. These block trades may not be as discernible in higher timeframes (e.g., on a 1-hour chart). Consequently, while the system incorporates Volume Analysis to gauge the market's reaction at a potential base, this feature is not activated by default, given its optional nature.
Volume analysis involves scrutinizing the quantity of shares or contracts traded within a specific
timeframe. This analysis is a key tool for technical analysts, who integrate it with other indicators to inform their trading strategies. By examining volume trends alongside price movements, investors can ascertain the significance of price changes in a security.
The system executes volume analysis through two distinct methods:
Comparison of the volume at the low pivot point against the volume moving average, based on the following criterion:
( > ) = True
Application of a multiplication factor to the volume, ensuring it surpasses the volume moving average by a specified margin:
( > ) = True
In the following example, volume is greater than volume moving average:
Ensuring adequate spacing between bases
The system possesses the capability to be configured in such a manner that it spaces out the
formation of new bases at a predetermined distance from the existing base. This feature is
instrumental in preventing the occurrence of multiple bases being identified near one another. The left chart has 3 base lines that are very close together.
No percent of change for new bases
5% percent of change for new bases
Base Line Placement
The system supports configurable settings for determining the positioning of the base line. This line can be set at the low point of the bar, or alternatively, at the lower value between the opening and closing prices. A comparative analysis of these two distinct options is presented, utilizing the same fractal pattern for evaluation
Base Placed on Low
Base Place on Open
A critical consideration in this context is that if the bar defining the pivot low (termed as the Base Reference Bar) exhibits a lower value than either of the two placements, then the placement will default to utilizing the low of the Base Reference Bar.
Base Placement on Low of Reference Bar
Understanding Layering Functionality
Elucidation of Layers and Their Respective Unit Types
The system is designed to accommodate a maximum of nine (9) distinct layers, each equipped with its own set of crack and respect alerts. Layers can be set dynamically through API requests or preconfigured at a position start; unit value can be configured in two ways:
as a percentage of the price,
as a fixed quantity (such as BTC, USD, etc.). Assigning a value of zero (0) to a layer
effectively deactivates it.
A “respected” layer definition
In the system's framework, a layer is classified as “cracked” when the market price descends
beneath the specified layer price threshold. An alert is activated whenever this occurs. However, the criteria for a layer being acknowledged as “respected” can be determined through one of two selectable options. A layer is recognized as respected based on the following price action scenarios:
1. "Respected Base" - means that the system will consider all layers that are cracked below the
base as respected when the price action returns to the base after a base crack. For example,
consider this chart below:
As illustrated, the initial base along with layers 1 and 2 are breached. However, when the price
subsequently ascends, the entire configuration is deemed adhered to upon the base being
respected. Consequently, in this scenario, a total of four alerts are activated:
Base breached;
Layer 1 breached;
Layer 2 breached;
Base respected.
Moreover, it is noteworthy that no alert is generated upon the second breach of Layer 2. Therefore, under these settings, a layer is only recognized as breached once while the base breach is in effect. Once the base is respected, the system resets the states of the layers. Hence, if these layers are breached again post-reset, new alerts will be issued accordingly.
2. "Cracks Next Layer First" - means that the system will consider all layers that are cracked below the base as respected when the price action returns to the layer after the layer below it is cracked. For example, consider the chart.
Again, the cracked state is restored when the price is returned to the base. While the last
layer will never be considered respected since there is no “Next Layer” to be cracked.
Duration of layered trading activity
The duration of layered trading within the system is adjustable, allowing to define the maximum permissible number of cracks per base. Upon reaching this threshold, the system ceases to issue alerts for further price movements across the layers. Instead, it shifts its focus to identifying new bases as they emerge. A base is deemed to be cracked upon the breach of the first layer.
The system offers a configurable option to set a maximum limit on the number of bars for which a layered trade can be active. Upon the breach of the 1st layer, the system initiates a count of the duration, in terms of bars, for which the trade remains active. Should this duration surpass thepredefined maximum threshold, the system will then classify the base as disregarded and start recognizing new base candidates as they emerge. This feature is particularly beneficial in preventing the system from persisting indefinitely on the same base. By default, this setting is assigned a value of 0 bars, indicating that it is initially inactive.
The system additionally offers a feature to manage the initiation point for base detection. This
functionality is crucial in ensuring that the detection process does not commence amidst an
ongoing, long-duration cracked base. Such a scenario could potentially hinder the identification
and charting of new bases, thereby impacting the effectiveness of the trading strategy. The
system also provides the ability to control the starting point of the base detection so that you can ensure that you are not starting in the middle of a cracked base that is long running in duration, thus preventing new bases from being detected and place on the chart.
Risk management settings
The system is designed to incorporate a "Take Profit" feature, which enables to exit a trade
following a base crack, thereby mitigating the risk of the base not being respected. Alongside the Take Profit functionality, the system also allows for the configuration of Break Even and Stop Loss parameters. These can be activated at predetermined layers, offering users the flexibility to tailor the timing of their application.
Furthermore, the system facilitates the input of specific exchange buy and sell commission rates. This inclusion is critical for refining the Take Profit calculations, ensuring they are as accurate as possible to realize the intended profit margins.
These configurations play a pivotal role in recalculating the Take Profit price line with each layer crack. It's important to note that the efficacy of this setting is contingent on the "Layer Is Respected When Price" being configured to "Respects Base." In scenarios where this is not the case, the Take Profit price line will experience an upward adjustment whenever layers are respected. Therefore, the optimal utility of this setting is realized when it is paired with the "Respects Base" configuration.
The calculation of the Take Profit line value will inherently treat the Stop Loss Percentage as a
negative figure. Consequently, there is no requirement to specify a negative number for this setting.
Accompanying this text are screenshots that demonstrate diverse instances of these settings being applied within a chart context
Take Profit with Layer Activation Settings Disabled
Take Profit Activated at Layer 3
Break Even Activated at Layer 3
Stop Loss Activated at Last Layer
AUDUSD BUY - High probability tradeHi Everyone, it's been a while but I'll slowly get back at posting my trading ideas here.
Today's setup is on AUDUSD.
AUD has had a good rally with the US Dollar weakness, which is currently retracing and reaching a key level.
My Setup takes into account the 50% Fibonacci retracement as well as 0.65200 area of previous resistance that could be tested as a support to continue to move price up!
I'm placing my stop loss below the Order Block that broke recent structure - in case the market does not respect that level, this setup will no longer be valid and we should look for another opportunity.
However, I think this is a great trading idea with added confluences!
Let me know your thoughts!
Good luck!
Cheers,
Gaspar_Trader
TMC the metals company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought TMC before the spike:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TMC the metals company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 1usd strike price at the money long term Calls with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $0.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
XAUUSD: Reaction to the supply zone at 1983!The situation in the Middle East has impacted global markets, affecting commodities like the gold price on Comex. Despite optimism related to Chinese stimulus and expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, Comex gold faces challenges. The recent US CPI report indicated consumer inflation cooling faster than anticipated, while unemployment claims suggested a slowdown in the labor market. Market expectations of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December 2023 and potential rate cuts in 2024 have pushed the yield on the US Treasury's 10-year note to a two-month low, benefiting gold. The decline in the US dollar since September and concerns about the conflict between Israel and Hamas, with potential impacts on the global economy, have contributed to supporting gold. The People's Bank of China's decision to keep borrowing rates low and inject liquidity into markets, along with Chinese regulators' commitment to further support the real estate sector, has boosted investor confidence and limited gold's safe-haven appeal.
The price of gold is currently undergoing a corrective downward phase after reaching a recent ten-day high of $1,993 on Friday, seeking a clear direction as a new week begins on Monday. The price is testing bearish commitments while hovering around the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,975, having sharply retraced from multi-day highs on Friday. Failure to defend this level on a daily closing basis could trigger a renewed downtrend towards static support in the $1,955-$1,950 range. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates the price is in an overbought condition, suggesting a potential downward movement. The immediate upside barrier is observed at the descending trendline resistance of $1,991, above which Friday’s high of $1,993 could be retested. The corrective decline in the gold price is influenced by risk sentiment, with the absence of significant US economic data, communication from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Risk sentiment is expected to be a crucial factor in gold price dynamics and is currently influenced by optimism regarding Chinese stimulus and positive corporate earnings reports from Japanese companies. Gold is currently in an interesting situation; at the time of writing, the price is reacting to the $1980 level after reaching a supply zone on the daily chart. It will be interesting to wait for operational confirmations, above $2000 to continue and attempt to ride the bullish trend or, conversely, wait for the price to fall below $1920-$1890 to assess potential declines towards the $1850 zone. A truly interesting pair to follow.
Exploring Trends and Opportunities in Cycles with BNB/BTCAnalyzing the recurring cycles within the BNB/BTC pairing reveals a promising landscape for strategic trading. Over 650-day intervals, distinct patterns emerge, guiding investors through highs and lows in price dynamics.
This cyclic strategy presents a valuable tool for traders seeking optimal moments to exchange between BNB and BTC, potentially maximizing gains and capitalizing on market opportunities. It's crucial to acknowledge the current long-term historical uptrend in BNB/BTC, recognizing that revisiting lower price regions may be a healthy and strategic move from a technical perspective.
In essence, understanding and navigating these cycles can empower investors to make well-informed decisions, aligning their trades with the prevailing trends and enhancing overall trading performance."
High Returns, Low Risk: Unveiling a Winning Investment StrategyI am pleased to introduce a robust long-term strategy that seamlessly combines performance with an enticing risk profile.
This strategy involves strategically investing in ETFs indexed on the S&P 500 and ETFs backed by physical gold. Let's delve into the rationale behind selecting these two assets:
S&P 500:
1. Automatic Diversification: Instant exposure to a diverse array of companies, mitigating the risk associated with the individual performance of a single stock.
2. Low Costs: ETF management fees are typically low, facilitating cost-effective diversification.
3. Liquidity: Traded on the stock exchange, S&P 500 ETFs offer high liquidity, enabling seamless buying or selling of shares.
4. Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has demonstrated consistent long-term growth, making it an appealing indicator for investors seeking sustained growth.
5. Ease of Access: Accessible to all investors, even those with modest investment amounts, requiring only a brokerage account.
6. Simple Tracking: The S&P 500 index simplifies market tracking, eliminating the need to monitor numerous stocks individually.
7. Dividends: Companies included often pay dividends, providing an additional income stream.
8. Long-Term Strategy: Ideal for investors pursuing a long-term approach, S&P 500 ETFs are pivotal for gradual wealth building.
9. Geographical Diversification: Investing in an S&P 500 ETF offers not just sectoral but also geographical diversification. Despite the U.S. base, many included companies have a global presence, contributing to international portfolio diversification.
Moreover, Warren Buffett's 2008 bet, where he wagered $1 million on the passive S&P 500 index fund outperforming active fund managers over a decade, underscores the difficulty even seasoned financial experts face in surpassing the market's long-term return. This further strengthens the notion that choosing an S&P 500-linked ETF can be a prudent and effective investment strategy.
Investment in Physical Gold ETFs:
1. Exposure to Physical Gold: Designed to reflect the price of physically held gold, providing direct exposure without the need for physical acquisition, storage, or insurance.
2. Liquidity: Traded on the stock exchange, physical gold ETFs offer high liquidity, allowing investors to buy or sell shares at prevailing market prices.
3. Diversification: Gold's unique reaction to market dynamics makes it a valuable diversification asset, potentially reducing overall portfolio risk.
4. Lower Costs: Compared to physically buying gold, investing in physical gold ETFs proves more cost-effective in terms of transaction costs, storage, and insurance. ETF management fees are also relatively low.
5. Transparency: Managers regularly publish reports detailing the gold quantity held, ensuring transparency about underlying assets.
6. Accessibility: Physical gold ETFs offer easy market access without the need for physical possession, appealing to investors avoiding gold storage and security management.
7. Gold-backed ETFs: These ETFs physically hold gold as the underlying asset, with investors often having the option to convert their shares into physical gold.
After extensive research and backtesting across diverse ETFs covering various asset classes, including bonds, real estate, commodities, and stocks of financially stable companies, my findings notably highlight a standout option during times of crisis: physical gold ETFs.
The strategy hinges on leading indicators, powerful economic tools.
Leading Indicators:
Leading indicators, or forward indicators, are crucial tools in economics and finance for anticipating future trends. In contrast to lagging indicators, which confirm existing trends, leading indicators provide early signals, aiding informed decision-making based on anticipated economic developments.
Key characteristics include:
Trend Anticipation: Early insight into upcoming changes in economic activity, facilitating preparedness for market developments.
Responsiveness: Quick reactions to economic changes, sometimes preceding other indicators.
Correlation with the Economy: Association with specific aspects of the economy, such as industrial production, consumer spending, or investments.
Examples include:
• Housing Starts: Providing early indications of the real estate market and construction investments.
• Net New Orders for Durable Goods: Indicating business investment intentions and insights into the manufacturing sector's health.
• US Stock Prices: Considered a leading indicator reflecting investor expectations.
• Consumer Confidence: Measuring consumer perceptions and influencing consumer spending.
• Purchasing Managers' Confidence and Factory Directors: Offering insights into production plans and future economic trends.
• Interest Rate Spread: Indicating economic expectations and influencing borrowing and investment decisions.
Returning to the strategy, I leverage entry points calculated by a meticulously developed strategy incorporating leading indicators applied to the SPY chart. The achieved performance of 3496% since 1993, with 15 closed trades, significantly surpasses a buy-and-hold position yielding 1654% in performance. Notably, the maximum drawdown is 5.44%, a stark contrast to the over 50% drawdown seen in an investment in the S&P 500.
Upon the indicators signaling the end of the long position, I close my SPY positions and transition to positions in physical gold ETFs.
In our example, choosing the GLD ETF yields a performance of 173%, adding to our total performance.
While the maximum drawdown, considering the addition of the investment in physical gold ETFs, is 17.65%, slightly higher than the drawdown on the strategy applied to the SPY, it remains impressive for such a prolonged period.
Now, if we conduct the backtest since 2007:
SPY : performance of 751 %, max drawdown of 4.02 %
GLD : Performance of 153 %
Since 2015:
SPY : performance of 131 %
GLD : Performance of 37 %
Disclaimer:
The information shared is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author is not liable for any financial losses incurred.
FUTU Holdings Limited Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought FUTU`s dip here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RUM Rumble prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 64usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-24,
for a premium of approximately $1.33.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
USDCAD Waiting for the CPI to position itself towards 1.40!The Canadian Dollar experiences a slight uptick in a calm yet moderately optimistic Monday. Tuesday's Canadian CPI figures will be in focus for Loonie traders. The market anticipates a marginal increase in the monthly figure, 0.1% for October compared to September's -0.1%. The expected annualized Canadian CPI inflation is projected to cool slightly, coming in at 3.6% versus the previous 3.8%. With broader markets mainly concentrated on the US Dollar, the release of the Federal Reserve's FOMC Meeting Minutes on Tuesday could attract additional attention. Markets are betting that the Fed has concluded rate hikes, and investors are focusing on inflation figures in anticipation of future rate cuts. On the daily candlesticks, the USD/CAD continues to receive bids pushing towards dynamic technical support represented by the rising trendline from July's lows of 1.3100. Bids continue to find support from the 50-day SMA, and the long-term trend appears to support continued USD strength. On the bearish side, the USD/CAD struggles to establish significant gains, and downside risks increase as the pair moves towards the year's high side. The price is within a supply zone; in my view, the price has retested the zone and is now attempting to go long. We will see tomorrow with the CPI data if it will support this upward move towards 1.40. Personally, I will look for a hypothetical long entry tomorrow during the London open, also considering the data; then I will assess how I manage risk, which is the most important aspect—always managing capital. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
EUR/USD Breakout to the upside followed by a pullback towards 1.On Friday, the EUR/USD exchange rate is rising, approaching 1.0900, with the U.S. dollar supported by higher Treasury yields and mixed market sentiment. The pair is poised to mark the highest weekly close since August. Despite a lower low, the pair quickly reversed the trend upwards according to the daily chart. The 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are directionless between 1.0790 and 1.0800, while the 20 SMA is accelerating north below the longer ones. Technical indicators, though stable near overbought levels, show a slight increase without a clear directional bias. In the short term, the technical outlook suggests a potential uptrend, as 4-hour chart indicators corrected from extremely overbought readings, reflecting a growing buying interest. The bullish momentum is likely to resume by surpassing the immediate resistance level at 1.0890.
In fact, we have a price oscillating between two support and resistance areas. Let's say the long-term outlook is bullish, and I expect the price to break the level of 1.0946 before a retest of the 1.09 level, and then move towards 1.10. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
NASDAQ Pullback before 16,500!On November 17th, the USA's technology stocks index closed with a modest gain of +0.03%. The opening was stable compared to the previous day's closing, followed by a gradual improvement throughout the session. The short-term trend of the Nasdaq 100 is strengthening, with a resistance area identified at 15,956.4, while the nearest support is seen at 15,601.2. An upward continuation towards the level of 16,311.6 is expected. Furthermore, after the breakout from the bearish channel in the daily chart, I anticipate a retracement to the level of approximately 15,200, which corresponds to the 0.5% Fibonacci level. After that, I will aim to ride the upward trend, targeting an entry with a goal between 16,300 and 16,700. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USOIL: Pullback to the upside before the descent!
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, has rebounded from a three-month low of $72.22, experiencing a more than 4% increase during the mid-North American session. This rise has been attributed to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil shippers and profit-taking by traders. Currently, WTI is traded at $75.97 per barrel, marking a gain of 4.27%. The U.S. Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on companies and vessels involved in shipping oil beyond the G7's $60 limit, with the aim of reducing Russian profits linked to actions in Ukraine. Despite an increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles and a rise in Baker Hughes' drilling rig count, indicating growing oil production, WTI prices have not been significantly influenced. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel with the possibility of a pullback to the upside before resuming the downward trend towards 68 points. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Xau/Usd (Gold)Hello traders!
The xau/usd (gold) pair is in a triangle pattern. In my opinion, there are two scenarios. Scenario number 1: The pair should test the level of 1975.00 and then take a buy move at the level of 1992.0 and continue a buy move towards the level of 2009.33. Scenario number 2: The pair should test the level of 1975.00 and then take a buy move at the level 1992.0 without breaking the line to go to the level of 1941.00. Wait to enter the trade! Be careful!
Don`t forget to look at the economic calendar!
MAKE MONEY AND ENJOY LIFE 💰
THANK YOU!
GOOD LUCK!
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
APP Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: with price above 44.89
Volume: with volume greater than 5.615M
Target: 53.30 area (this is an area, no guarantee it reaches this price, but you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 44.90, 42.19 gets you 3/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
GOLD SELL TILL 24 NOV 2023 On 24th Nov, Friday, or 27th Nov, Monday, gold will create a low at 1924 and change the market to buy. Also, on 27th Nov, it's a full moon, so we are expecting a change of trend from 24th Nov or 27th Nov. The market will create a major low, and on 12th Dec, gold will create a high of 1998, and the trend will change to sell. Let's see how the market will respect our analysis. Previous analyses indicate that gold followed very beautifully; let's observe this one.
XAUUSD: Breakout of 2000 in sight!Gold, consolidating above $1,980 this Friday, aims to break a two-week downtrend. Despite the potential for a US dollar recovery, the decline in Treasury bond yields supports gold's upward movement. Surging above the 21-day Simple Moving Average at $1,974, Thursday's close motivated buyers. The 14-day Relative Strength Index remains comfortably above the midline, confirming the upward trend. The next challenge is the descending trendline resistance at $1,992, near the November 6 high of $1,993. A breakthrough could push buyers to target the psychological $2,000 level. In case of selling pressure, initial support lies at the 21-day SMA at $1,974, with a risk of rapid decline to $1,960. Further downward extension may test psychological support at $1,950. Gold remains influenced by risk trends and Federal Reserve statements. US-China trade tensions and Fed rate uncertainty keep investors cautious. In a market of uncertainty, the safe-haven US dollar limits gold's upward attempts. However, gold benefits from recent Treasury bond yield declines, with hopes the Fed's rate-hiking cycle is done and rate cuts are anticipated by May next year. Weak US economic data reinforced expectations of a Fed pause, justifying the gold surge. In October, the US Producer Price Index had its steepest decline in three and a half years, and Consumer Price Index inflation dropped to 3.2% YoY. Retail sales fell 0.1% in October. Thursday saw US initial claims rise by 13,000 to 231,000 for the week ending November 11. Gold prices are likely to maintain an upward trend, but end-of-week profit-taking and a potential US dollar recovery may pose challenges. Data on US housing starts and building permits are expected to have a limited impact on US dollar trading.
GBP/USD: Pullback after Asia and ahead of 1.27.GBP/USD is moving sideways with a negative tone near 1.2410 during the Asian hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) finds support despite positive data on US jobless claims and a decrease in US Treasury yields. Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending on November 3 increased to the highest level since 2022 at 1.865 million, compared to the previous reading of 1.833 million. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on November 10 rose to 231,000, exceeding the expected 220,000, marking the highest level in nearly three months. Despite challenging labor market indicators, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered ground. Notably, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note bottomed at 4.43% on Thursday. However, it is observed that the DXY is bidding lower around 104.30 at the time of writing. Federal Reserve representatives have spoken out to counter expectations of rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized that the US central bank is data-dependent when considering whether to raise rates further, reflecting the nuanced approach taken in response to economic conditions. The UK inflation report for October revealed a notable decline in the annual rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), dropping to 4.6% from the previous level of 6.7%. The monthly rate also eased to 0.0%, falling short of the expected 0.1%. Core CPI (Year-on-Year) also contracted to 5.7% from the previous reading of 6.1%. Despite the Bank of England (BoE) emphasizing the need for higher rates, market participants are not anticipating more rate hikes. Investors are awaiting key economic indicators, focusing on UK Retail Sales and US housing data. Additionally, I note how the price has reacted at the level of 1.25, near the 0.5% Fibonacci level, during the Asian session. I expect a slight pullback to regain liquidity below the Asian session low before aiming for a long position towards 1.27. Let me know what you think, leave a like and comment. Greetings and happy trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
EUR/USD: Two long scenarios with a target of 1.09!The EUR/USD currency pair recently reached a high of 1.0896, the highest level since late August, before experiencing a slight pullback below 1.0850. Despite softer-than-expected US economic data and lower Treasury yields, the pair remains above its moving averages on the daily chart. The short-term technical outlook suggests a potential upward movement, with indicators on the 4-hour chart showing signs of recovery. The US Dollar has modestly recovered after a recent decline, as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve's reluctance to further raise rates and the possibility of a new rate-cut cycle. Financial markets turned optimistic, leading to a decline in the safe-haven US Dollar and pushing EUR/USD closer to 1.0900. It's noted that other US economic data indicates a relatively stronger local economy, which could potentially strengthen the US Dollar in the future. Before Wall Street's opening, ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted the resilience of the European financial system in avoiding severe systemic risks. On the daily chart, two possible long scenarios are marked, one with a retracement, which is the one I will target for a long entry, and then the second scenario that predicts a direct rise tomorrow towards 1.09. Comment and leave a like, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.