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GBP/USD Fed and BoE, price heading towards 1.23The GBP/USD exchange rate is slightly higher above 1.2100 at the beginning of the Monday European session, but traders remain cautious due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming meetings of major central banks. During the Asian session, the exchange rate remains within a narrow range around the 1.2100 level. Traders are awaiting significant central bank events scheduled for this week, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on Wednesday and the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday. The Fed is expected to confirm the maintenance of interest rates for the second time in November, although there are still speculations about a possible rate hike later in the year. These speculations are supported by positive macroeconomic data from the United States, indicating a resilient economy. On the other hand, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged due to concerns about a possible recession, but it may leave the door open for further monetary tightening to combat inflation. This uncertainty is holding back traders from taking directional positions on the British Pound (GBP), and the lack of buying interest suggests that the most likely trend for the exchange rate is downward. However, bears should wait for acceptance below the 1.2100 level before entering new positions. There are no significant economic data scheduled for Monday from either the UK or the US. Therefore, US Treasury bond yields will continue to influence the dynamics of the US Dollar (USD) and provide short-term trading opportunities for the GBP/USD exchange rate. Additionally, broader market sentiment will affect the demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven. Given the complex market variables, caution is advisable before entering new directional trades. Additionally, the price is slightly outside a demand zone and is consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. A bullish trend is starting to take shape, and I personally expect a bounce on the trendline before considering a potential long entry with a target of 1.225. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to all, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
Will GBP/USD reach 1.23 before the FED?The Pound Sterling (GBP) is facing challenges in its attempt to surpass a critical resistance level at 1.2140, primarily due to the strength of the US Dollar. This strength has diminished investors' risk appetite, and as a result, the GBP/USD pair could potentially retreat to its lowest point in seven months. The reason for this setback lies in the UK economy, which is grappling with the repercussions of the Bank of England (BoE) raising interest rates in response to persistent consumer inflation. Significant declines in business activities, labor demand, and retail sales have been observed, largely attributed to the pressure on household budgets caused by high inflation. Inflation risks persist due to robust wage growth, casting doubts among market participants about whether UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak can fulfill his promise to reduce headline inflation to 5.4% by the year's end. As the Pound Sterling makes a sharp recovery from 1.2070, it encounters substantial resistance near the 1.2140 level. The GBP/USD pair faces challenges in maintaining its upward trajectory, with market sentiment dampened by escalating geopolitical tensions. The short-term trend remains bearish, indicated by the gradual descent of both the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). A breach of Thursday's low could potentially expose the psychological support level at the key figure of 1.2000.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
Will EUR/USD outpace the Fed? 1.07?The US dollar gained momentum last Friday following news of an Israeli ground operation expansion in Gaza. Stocks declined, while gold and crude oil prices rose. Meanwhile, EUR/USD took a step back towards 1.0550, erasing daily gains. If the pair surpasses this level and uses it as support, the next bullish targets could be set at 1.0600 (200-period simple moving average) and 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). On the downside, intermediate support is at 1.0520 (static level) before 1.0500 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0450 (end of the last bearish trend). EUR/USD touched 1.0500 in response to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decisions on Thursday but managed to recover above 1.0550. The ECB announced that it would keep key interest rates unchanged after ten consecutive increases. In its policy statement, the bank emphasized that interest rates at current levels, if maintained for a sufficiently long period, would significantly contribute to achieving the inflation target. Lagarde stated that it is premature to discuss interest rate cuts and added that they won't say they have reached the maximum rate. In the last two weeks, investors have moved away from risk-related assets in anticipation of the weekend due to concerns of further escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. If risk flows continue to dominate later in the day, the US dollar (USD) may find it challenging to maintain its position, which could facilitate an increase in EUR/USD. I also note that the price has been in the same demand area for days, accumulating for an imminent move. Targeting 1.07 for the next direction. Let me know what you think, happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Can You Explain Your Trading Strategy in 3 Sentences?Can you explain your trading strategy in 3 sentences or less? Go ahead and give it a try in the comments below. This is an important exercise for any trader of investor as it demonstrates mastery of an existing strategy. Meaning, if a trader knows their strategy inside and out, and has practiced it or modified it over a period of time, they also can explain it quickly and succinctly. • Are you a swing trader? What criteria determines a trade? • Are you a value investor? What metrics do you use? • Are you an algorithmic trader? What code powers your trading? All of these questions and more go into explaining your trading strategy, which is ultimately the process you're using to trade markets. However, it's often observed that new traders don't have a strategy. Instead, their trades are impulsive and random. As a community, we can use the comments section below to showcase our individual levels of expertise, helping new traders along the way and watching pro traders innovate. We look forward to seeing what everyone writes in the comments below. In addition, the more people who share, the more we can learn. Be sure to like, follow, and comment on the traders who have the most interesting answers. You may find a great follow and improve your social feed here. - TradingView Team
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by TradingView
323
EUR/USD Uptrend Imminent After ECBDuring the American session, EUR/USD gained momentum, benefiting from a weaker US dollar, surpassing the 1.0550 level, and erasing previous losses. The US dollar's retreat occurred despite positive US growth data, which were influenced by lower Treasury yields. EUR/USD reached a new weekly low below 1.0550 early on Thursday, after closing in negative territory for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) outperformed its peers midweek, supported by rising US Treasury bond yields. Additionally, the negative shift observed in market sentiment following the news of Israel preparing for a ground operation allowed the US dollar to find demand as a safe haven. Markets remain cautious early on Thursday, with US stock index futures and the Euro Stoxx 50 trading in the red. Investors anticipate that the US economy will register an annualized growth of 4.2% in the third quarter. A disappointing reading at or below 3.5% could weaken the US dollar with an initial reaction. I also note how the price, after Lagarde's statements, began to accumulate in the H4 demand zone after a significant liquidity drawdown. Currently, I'm considering a purchase at M15. I will observe the market tomorrow during the London session before the opening of the American market and ahead of the release of new macroeconomic data. Let me know what you think, leave a like, and comment. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY Bullish Triangle Targeting 155?The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently declining towards 150.00 in a delayed response to the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data beat, with a modest drop in the US dollar contributing to the current descent of the pair. Attention is now focused on the US PCE inflation. The USD/JPY exchange rate recently surpassed the significant psychological level of 150.00, extending the overall uptrend. The pair is bullish on a long-term, intermediate, and short-term basis. The pair has completed what appears to be an ascending triangle on the daily chart and has broken above the October 3 highs at 150.16, confirming a breakout. Although the breakout has not been particularly decisive (Thursday's breakout candle is a 'Doji,' indicating indecision), the price will likely continue higher, given the dominant uptrend. The technical target of the triangle is around 152. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator shows bearish divergence with price when compared to the October 3 high. This happens when price makes a higher high, but momentum fails to follow suit. This suggests underlying weakness in the uptrend and increases the risk that the triangle breakout may be 'false.' Further confirmation of the ongoing uptrend would come with a re-break above Thursday's highs at 150.80. It's worth noting that triangles are sometimes precursors to trend reversals, indicating that the current uptrend may be approaching its culmination point. Initially, the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the US Dollar (USD), which benefited from safe-haven flows and higher US yields. Later, the JPY was supported by probable intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) after the USD/JPY rate crossed the 150 defensive line, a level traditionally defended by the MoF. US data released on Thursday showed an unexpected increase in America's GDP to 4.9% in Q3 on an annualized basis, solidly beating consensus estimates of 4.2%. US Durable Goods Orders rose 4.7% versus estimates of 1.5%, and Initial Jobless Claims increased to 210K versus 208K expected. Despite being mostly positive, the data did not benefit the US dollar, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) registered a slight drop after the data, with DXY down 0.1% just over an hour after the releases. Therefore, it will be interesting to see further price reactions on the upper side of the triangle to evaluate possible trend continuations. In case of an upward move, the level of 155 seems more than achievable. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Is XAUUSD heading to 1950?The price of gold XAU/USD appears to be reacting only modestly to the recent positive momentum of the US dollar and the increase in US Treasury yields. Currently, the immediate resistance is positioned at $1,988. If surpassed, gold buyers could target the five-month highs at $1,997 and the $2,000 threshold. On the other hand, in the event of an upward rejection, we may see support at $1,963 during a correction, with the psychological level of $1,950 as the possible next level. Gold sellers may attempt to test the October 19th low at $1,945 in case of a decline. Investors have sought refuge in gold and the US dollar due to the rise in US Treasury yields and tensions in the Hamas-Israel conflict. They are also cautious about high-risk assets while awaiting the preliminary US GDP report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's outlook. Tensions in the Middle East could support the price of gold in the short term, but US economic data could shift focus to the future of Federal Reserve interest rates. The ECB is considering changes in its tightening program, with a focus on its president's message. Furthermore, the price has broken a swing high at the $1,985 level and has started to descend manually. I will assess whether to enter the market to ride this descent during London or after the New York opening. Let me know what you think, leave a like, and comment. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Trading strategyA trading strategy encompasses a set of guidelines for initiating a position. A trading system encompasses a set of rules for consistently profitable trading. This involves a clear comprehension of your strategy, specifying the assets you trade, the setups you utilize, the risk involved, preferred timeframes, and other pertinent details. Consistency: A meticulously crafted action plan serves as a tool to maintain a steady trading strategy while minimizing the sway of emotions on your decision-making. Such consistency often yields more predictable results and enhances overall performance over time. Confidence: Equipped with a playbook, you can trade with increased self-assurance, knowing that you are following a tried-and-tested strategy. This confidence alleviates stress and anxiety, enabling you to maintain focus and make sound decisions. Adaptability: In the face of shifting market conditions, having a playbook at your disposal empowers you to adjust and fine-tune your strategies as needed. This adaptability is a critical factor in staying ahead and sustaining success in the constantly evolving realm of trading. 4 distinct components that constitute a trading strategy: Context: Context encompasses the surroundings and circumstances related to a trading idea or event. It is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the situation and is vital for maximizing the potential of your trading strategy. Many traders erroneously believe that a trading strategy is simply about identifying patterns or triggers along with basic risk management. For instance, some may focus on trading Order Blocks. However, the key to making Order Blocks a profitable tool lies in applying the correct context. Patterns: The second component involves identifying the triggers or patterns that dictate when to enter a position. Context is applied to these triggers for in-depth analysis, aligning them with the risk-to-reward parameters defined in your trading system. Triggers can vary widely and should be chosen according to your individual trading style and strategy. Position Management: Inexperienced traders often find themselves overwhelmed when they enter a position, leading to irrational decisions. Defining a repeatable process for managing your trades is essential. This process should align with the goals set out in your trading strategy. For instance, if your strategy aims for a risk-to-reward ratio of 3R or higher, your approach will differ from someone targeting a minimum of 1.5R. To ensure consistency, it's crucial to avoid excessive discretion when managing positions, such as attempting to achieve a 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio, placing short stops, or averaging down. Instead, aim for strict consistency, gradually honing your skills. Risk Management: The final facet of any trading system is risk management. Poor risk management is a leading cause of trader failures. It often results from excessive leverage and a lack of understanding. Your risk management plan doesn't need to be overly complex, but it must be clear and diligently adhered to. By following a robust risk management strategy, you can avoid the pitfalls that ensnare many inexperienced traders who destroy their accounts due to reckless trading practices. It may vary depending on your trading style, but for day trading I recommend the following: * 1% maximum risk per trade * 2% maximum per day * 6% maximum per week * 10% maximum per month 6 essential steps to build and refine your trading strategy: Determine Your Trading Style: Start by defining your trading style, whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor. This choice guides your selection of appropriate strategies, time frames, and risk management techniques. For instance, specify your preferred win rate (e.g., 50%+), risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2R minimum), and trading style (e.g., scalping, position trading, or swing trading). Research and Select Strategies: Explore various trading strategies and choose the ones that align with your trading style, risk tolerance, and financial objectives. You may want to consider strategies like Smart Money trading, which could be particularly beneficial. Define Entry and Exit Criteria: For each selected strategy, outline precise entry and exit criteria. Determine your stop loss and profit targets to ensure you execute trades accurately and limit potential losses. It's crucial to establish a well-defined trade management plan that guides step-by-step position management. For example, decide to move your position to break-even when a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio is reached, open trades exclusively with a 1:2 ratio, or close 50% of your position at 1:1 and the remaining 50% at 1:3. Establish Risk Management Rules: Implement robust risk management rules to safeguard your capital. These rules might include setting a maximum percentage of your account balance to risk per trade or using Expert Advisors to automatically determine position sizing for risk control. Test Your Strategies: Prior to committing real capital, test your strategies using historical market data or a demo account. This testing phase allows you to refine your strategy and build confidence in your approach. If you cannot achieve positive results on a demo account, it's advisable to avoid risking real money until you've honed your skills. Analyze Your Trades: Maintain a comprehensive trade journal recording the strategy used, entry and exit points, and relevant market conditions for each trade. Regularly review your trade results to pinpoint areas for improvement and adapt your trading plan accordingly. Analyzing your trades is crucial for continuous growth as a trader. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Crypto4light
13
GBP/USD Will the American GDP surprise everyone?The British Pound (GBP) is experiencing a decline following the escalation of expectations for a mild recession in the UK economy amid growing geopolitical tensions. The UK labor market appears to be feeling the consequences of the economic slowdown, and it is expected that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the second consecutive time. The Pound is pushing lower towards the 1.211 level as the UK economy is anticipated to enter a mild recession. Last Tuesday, S&P Global reported that the manufacturing PMI was at 45.2, slightly above expectations of 45.0 and the previous reading of 44.3. However, a value below 50.0 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity. According to PMI data, manufacturing activity in the UK has been contracting for over a year. This is the longest period of manufacturing decline in the country since 2008-2009, as businesses are reducing their inventories due to a slowdown in new orders. The services PMI dropped to 49.2 in October, below expectations of 49.5 and the September reading of 49.3. The services PMI, which measures activity among service providers, has been contracting for the third consecutive month. The UK unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% in the quarter ending in August, contrary to forecasts and the previous figure of 4.3%. Meanwhile, the US dollar rebounded on Tuesday after finding support near 105.40. Investors rushed towards the US dollar after a positive PMI reading for October. This week, investors will be paying close attention to the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data set to be released on Thursday. Economists expect a growth rate doubling to 4.2% compared to the previous 2.1% on an annual basis. A high growth rate in the July-September period could increase the likelihood of further restrictive measures by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for November 1st. The British Pound faced strong selling pressure after a brief retracement towards the psychological resistance level of 1.2290. However, the price seems to be giving an initial bullish signal after breaking the swing low at the 1.2142 level. From this point, I expect either a bullish momentum in the Asian session and then look for an entry during the London session to ride this uptrend, or a further decline towards the 1.2088 zone where we have an H4 demand zone before the resumption. Let me know what you think. Leave a like and comment, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
XAUUSD: The Fed is getting ready!The recent price trend of gold has seen significant volatility. After an initial drop below $1,961 during the American session, gold managed to climb back to around $1,972 per troy ounce, thanks to the retracement of the yield of the ten-year US government bond, previously pushed higher by positive economic data. From a technical perspective, the daily chart suggests a possible exhaustion of the uptrend, with lower lows and highs, but with technical indicators remaining in overbought territory, indicating a potential short-term rally. This picture is confirmed by the 4-hour chart, where technical indicators are showing a positive trend, despite the Momentum being just below the 100 reference point. Key levels to watch are $1,965 and $1,954 as support, and $1,983 and $1,995 as resistance. Renewed demand for the US dollar has influenced the price of gold, bringing it to an intraday low of $1,953.53 during London trading. Geopolitical context, such as the delay of the Israeli incursion into Gaza, has created an optimistic atmosphere in the financial markets, although the prospects for a diplomatic solution remain uncertain. From a broader perspective, the US dollar has gained strength due to positive economic data, with economic activity expanding in October exceeding expectations, including a manufacturing PMI at 50 and a services index at 50.9. During the American session, government bond yields remained stable, allowing XAU/USD to mitigate intraday losses. The price is currently at the 1972 level, and I expect an upward movement followed by a descent and then another rise. This is because I see market conditions of uncertainty, with particularly tricky geopolitical factors, so I prefer to be cautious and will enter the market if it follows my prediction, at which point, I will consider a position at the M15 level. Until then, I will simply observe. Please leave a like and a comment. Have a great day from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY Bearish Expectation with BOJ in Action!The USD/JPY exchange rate reached a temporary support level at 149.50 after the strengthening of the US dollar. Economists predict a 4.2% growth in the US economy in the third quarter of 2023. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced an unplanned bond-buying operation. The USD/JPY rate found support after a correction from the key resistance level of 150.00. S&P500 futures recorded gains, and the delay in Israel's assault on Gaza improved market sentiment. The dollar rebounded in anticipation of positive GDP data scheduled for Thursday, with expectations of further restrictive measures by the Federal Reserve. The yield on US ten-year bonds decreased to 4.83%, and Fed members maintain a neutral stance on interest rate decisions. Jerome Powell of the Fed is expected to emphasize the need to keep rates steady but with the possibility of future restrictions. The Bank of Japan will conduct an unplanned bond purchase with specific amounts. Additionally, the price spiked at the swing low of 149.40, followed by a manual rise. At the 150 level, I expect a price correction downward with subsequent liquidity withdrawal at 148.80, followed by an upward move. It will be interesting to consider entries on M15 or M5 confirmation. Let me know what you think, and happy trading to all. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy. BOJ in azione!
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Why INJBTC Is a Top Buy Option Right NowINJBTC is currently one of the most robust BTC pairs, making it a prime candidate for a "buy option." Our analysis strongly supports a long position, with compelling reasons for expecting an ongoing uptrend. This optimism stems from INJ's consistent adherence to the uptrend trendline, complemented by a clearly discernible pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe. These factors affirm the validity of the uptrend. The recent rebound from the uptrend trendline is precisely the kind of price action we've been eagerly awaiting. We even offer instruction on this strategy for those interested.
Long
by CryptoPAMM
ABBV AbbVie Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ABBV here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ABBV AbbVie prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 147usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-11-17, for a premium of approximately $3.30. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:ABBVLong
by TopgOptions
1
USD/CAD's Last Surge Before the Fall?The USD/CAD exchange rate has reversed, reaching the resistance at 1.3750. The Canadian dollar has gained momentum due to support from the U.S. dollar (DXY) at 106.00. The S&P500 has started declining due to market uncertainty linked to tensions in the Middle East and quarterly results. The Israeli leader has ordered an operation in Gaza, raising concerns about conflicts. The U.S. dollar is supported by long-term bond yields, which are at multi-year highs. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is at 5%. The Fed has long-term plans to increase interest rates. The Canadian dollar awaits the Bank of Canada's (BoC) interest rate decision on Wednesday. BoC may keep rates at 5% due to declining labor demand and inflationary pressures. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem forecasts inflation stability at 2%. At the 1.3680 level, I will look for a long entry on M15/M5 in search of MSS and liquidity. Happy trading to all from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD is ready for a restart!In the Asian session on Monday, the EUR/USD exchange rate dropped below 1.0600 due to developments in the Middle East, weakening the bullish prospects of the pair. The US dollar gained strength due to higher yields and a decline in stocks. However, there are some positive signals for EUR/USD, with technical indicators showing the potential for further gains if it closes above 1.0640 and possible weakness if it falls below 1.0500. On the 4-hour chart, the pair appears to have an upward trend, and gains may continue if it remains above 1.0555, with possible support at 1.0530. The main resistance is at 1.0630, and a breakout of this level could lead to further upward movement. Looking ahead, Germany will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is expected. In the United States, economic data has shown mixed results, with a decrease in initial unemployment claims but an increase in continuing claims. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested keeping interest rates stable in the short term. The expectation is for a rebound to the trendline at the 1.0551 level with subsequent upside towards 1.0622. Of course, I will be looking for an entry on M15/M5 on some liquidity grab, during the Asian session or on a swing low. Let me know what you think, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GOLD 4H CHART UPDATED LEVELS & TARGETSHey Everyone, Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We had a continuation of the strong move up last week with price finishing off with testing weighted resistance at 1955 on the 4H chart and then support at 1980. EMA5 cross above 1995 will open the levels and range above to track and trade or a cross and lock below 1980 will open the retracement range at 1960 - 1944 correctional retest zone. A break below the retracement range will see a test to the swing range for a bounce and a failure to lock below the retracement range will see a bounce up from this level. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and the catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week last 18 months, you can see how effectively they can be used to trade with or against short terms swings and trends. EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 1980 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 1995 2017 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2017 WILL OPEN 2032 AND 2047 BEARISH TARGETS 1980 EMA5 CROSS BELOW 1980 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 1960 1944 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1944 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE RANGE SWING RANGE 1906 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it! GoldViewFX XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
1
HOW-TO: Minervini Pullback StrategyGeneral Description and Unique Features of this Script 1. Our script/strategy utilizes Mark Minervini's Trend-Template as a qualifier for identifying stocks and other financial securities in confirmed uptrends. Mark Minervini, a 3x US Investment Champion, developed the Trend-Template, which covers eight different and independent characteristics that can be adjusted and optimized in this trend-following strategy to ensure the best results. The strategy will only trigger buy-signals in case the optimized qualifiers are being met. 2. Our strategy is based on supply/demand balance in the market, making it timeless and effective across all timeframes. Whether you're day trading using 1- or 5-min charts or swing-trading using daily charts, this strategy can be applied and works very well. 3. We also incorporate technical indicators such as RSI and MACD to identify low-risk pullback entries in the context of confirmed uptrends. By doing so, the risk profile of this strategy and drawdowns are being reduced to an absolute minimum, giving you peace of mind while trading. Minervini’s Trend-Template and the ‘Stage-Analysis’ of the Markets This strategy is a so-called 'long-only' strategy. This means that we only take long positions, short positions are not considered. The best market environment for such strategies are periods of stable upward trends in the so-called stage 2 - uptrend. In stable upward trends, we increase our market exposure and risk. In sideways markets and downward trends or bear markets, we reduce our exposure very quickly or go 100% to cash and wait for the markets to recover and improve. This allows us to avoid major losses and drawdowns. This simple rule gives us a significant advantage over most undisciplined traders and amateurs!   'The Trend is your Friend'. This is a very old but true quote. What's behind it??? • 98% of stocks made their biggest gains in a Phase 2 upward trend. • If a stock is in a stable uptrend, this is evidence that larger institutions are buying the stock sustainably. • By focusing on stocks that are in a stable uptrend, the chances of profit are significantly increased. • In a stable uptrend, investors know exactly what to expect from further price developments. This makes it possible to locate low-risk entry points. The goal is not to buy at the lowest price – the goal is to buy at the right price! Each stock goes through the same maturity cycle – it starts at stage 1 and ends at stage 4   Stage 1 – Neglect Phase – Consolidation Stage 2 – Progressive Phase – Accumulation Stage 3 – Topping Phase – Distribution Stage 4 – Downtrend – Capitulation This strategy focuses on identifying stocks in confirmed stage 2 uptrends. This in itself gives us an advantage over long-term investors and less professional traders. By focusing on stocks in a stage 2 uptrend, we avoid losses in downtrends (stage 4) or less profitable consolidation phases (stages 1 and 3). We are fully invested and put our money to work for us, and we are fully invested when stocks are in their stage 2 uptrends. But how can we use technical chart analysis to find stocks that are in a stable stage 2 uptrend? Mark Minervini has developed the so-called 'trend template' for this purpose. This is an essential part of our JS-TechTrading pullback strategy. For our watchlists, only those individual values that meet the tough requirements of Minervini's trend template are eligible. The Trend Template • 200d MA increasing over a period of at least 1 month, better 4-5 months or longer • 150d MA above 200d MA • 50d MA above 150d MA and 200d MA • Course above 50d MA, 150d MA and 200d MA • Ideally, the 50d MA is increasing over at least 1 month • Price at least 25% above the 52w low • Price within 25% of 52w high • High relative strength according to IBD. We have developed an algorythm (for TradingView) that uses Minervini’s trend template as a qualifier. This means that the strategy only generates trading signals in case the selected elements of the trend template are being met. The user is fully flexible to adjust the requirements of this Trend-Template qualifier: This strategy is normally applied to the daily chart ideal for selecting individual stocks for trend-following strategies. Nevertheless, Minervini’s principles are timeless and this alogrithmic strategy with the Trend-Template qualifier can also be applied to any other timframe. The qualifier #9 (RS-Ratings) can be modified and optimized in the strategy’s settings to fit your individual needs. In general, it should be noted that ideally all 8/8 trend template criteria are met. Stocks or other securities that meet only some of these 8 criteria can also be very promising candidates for this strategy, provided that backtesting yields good results. The Pullback Strategy For the Minervini pullback strategy, only stocks and other financial instruments that meet the selected criteria of Mark Minervini's trend template are considered. If not, the strategy will not generate any signals. Further prerequisites for generating a buy signal is that the individual value is in a short-term oversold state (RSI). When the selling pressure is over and the continuation of the uptrend can be confirmed by the MACD after reaching a price low, a buy signal is issued by the pullback strategy. Stop-loss limits and profit targets can be set variably. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator developed by Welles Wilder in 1978. The RSI is used to perform a market value analysis and identify the strength of a trend as well as overbought and oversold conditions. The indicator is calculated on a scale from 0 to 100 and shows how much an asset has risen or fallen relative to its own price in recent periods. The RSI is calculated as the ratio of average profits to average losses over a certain period of time. A high value of the RSI indicates an overbought situation, while a low value indicates an oversold situation. Typically, a value > 70 is considered an overbought threshold and a value < 30 is considered an oversold threshold. A value above 70 signals that a single value may be overvalued and a decrease in price is likely , while a value below 30 signals that a single value may be undervalued and an increase in price is likely. For example, let's say you're watching a stock XYZ. After a prolonged falling movement, the RSI value of this stock has fallen to 26. This means that the stock is oversold and that it is time for a potential recovery. Therefore, a trader might decide to buy this stock in the hope that it will rise again soon. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a technical indicator used in both short-term and long-term trading strategies. The indicator was developed by Gerald Appel and is one of the most well-known indicators for the stock market. The MACD consists of two lines calculated by the difference between two moving averages. The first line is a fast moving average that targets a short period of time. The second line is a slow moving average that targets a longer period of time. In addition, a trigger line is calculated, which consists of another moving average of the MACD line. The MACD line is the difference between the fast and slow moving average. The greater the difference between the two lines, the more likely a subsequent price increase. The lower the difference, the more likely a subsequent price drop is. If the MACD line crosses upwards over the trigger line, this is a buy signal that signals a potential price increase. If the MACD line crosses down below the trigger line, this is a sell signal that signals a potential price weakening. This strategy is applicable to all timeframes and the relevant parameters for the underlying indicators (RSI and MACD) can be adjusted and optimized as needed.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JS_TechTrading
Is GBP/USD poised for a rebound?In this update on GBP/USD, the currency pair initially dropped to the 1.2100 level due to disappointing economic data from the UK. However, it managed to recover to around 1.2150. Market sentiment remains negative, with investors focused on news related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart has stayed below 50, indicating a bearish outlook. If GBP/USD closes below 1.2100 on the 4-hour chart, sellers might become more active. In that case, the next downside targets could be 1.2050 and 1.2000. On the upside, key resistance levels include the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2150, followed by 1.2180 and 1.2200. The short-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains in place. Furthermore, disappointing retail sales data in the UK and comments from the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, have contributed to the weakness of the pound. Meanwhile, the US dollar has experienced some initial weakness but could receive support due to concerns related to the Israel-Hamas conflict affecting market sentiment. I also want to highlight a crucial point where the price is, precisely at the intersection of two trendlines at the 1.2161 level, and from here, I expect an uptrend with a target of 1.23. Personally, I will look for a long entry if I find a good setup on the 15-minute chart with some Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
10
WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought WAL here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 48usd strike price in the money Puts with an expiration date of 2023-10-20, for a premium of approximately $2.12. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:WALShort
by TopgOptions
Is EUR/USD ready to touch 1.07?The relationship between the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD) is maintaining a tight range below 1.0600 towards the end of the week. The lack of significant data releases is contributing to the cautious market attitude, which is supporting the strength of the US Dollar. This situation makes it challenging for the EUR/USD relationship to gain momentum. Over the last four days, EUR/USD has recorded its third increase and is currently trading above the 20-day simple moving average. On the daily chart, technical indicators suggest a bullish sentiment, with the RSI rising and Momentum exceeding the 100 level. If the relationship manages to close above 1.0640 in a day, it could set the stage for further gains. Conversely, a drop below 1.0500 could suggest more weakness ahead. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the relationship shows a bullish trend, with technical indicators confirming this perspective. As long as the relationship remains above 1.0555, we can anticipate further gains. However, a decline below this level could indicate support at 1.0530, suggesting the end of the current bullish movement. The main resistance level is at 1.0630, serving as a horizontal barrier and a descending trendline. Currently, this area is limiting the extent of gains. If the relationship manages to consolidate above this level, it could pave the way for further increases, with an initial target at 1.0675. On Thursday, despite risk aversion in the markets fueled by a drop in the US Dollar, EUR/USD recorded an increase and was on the verge of closing at daily highs not seen in over a week. However, it struggled to stay above 1.0600, suggesting obstacles in the path to further gains. On Friday, Germany will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, with expectations of an annual rate decline from -12.6% to -14.2%. The next significant event will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting in the following week, with expectations of key rates remaining unchanged for the first time since June of the previous year. US economic data released on Thursday were mixed, with initial jobless claims declining but continuing claims increasing. Existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in 13 years, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index recorded a negative value in October. These data did not favor the US Dollar. No major reports are expected for Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed a preference for keeping rates unchanged in the short term and emphasized the persistent inflation risk. This message aligns with recent Fed statements indicating the intention to keep rates stable as long as inflation slows and the economy does not show signs of further strengthening. The price is in a consolidation within a support and resistance zone. From this point, the price could either move upwards towards the supply zone at the level of 1.0630 or drop and bounce within the significant demand zone at the level of 1.0540 before continuing towards 1.07. Let me know what you think, regards from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1