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Institutions Pull Back Their Funds From The FedDisclaimer : Geopolitical factors are currently a major concern. This data analysis aims to serve as a fundamental basis derived directly from official sources to assess the USD exchange rate and the likelihood of future monetary policies under normal economic conditions, excluding geopolitical factors that create sentiment different from the actual economic conditions. H.4.1 Report FRED CME FedWatch Fed Balance Sheet: Securities Held Outright: Increased by $38 million. Reverse Repo (RRP): Significantly decreased by $51.875 million in the latest period. Reserve Balances: Increased by $42.962 million. TGA Data Current balance: $809,154 million. Change this week: Decreased by $8,799 million. Change from last year: Decreased by $22,726 million significantly. RRP A significant decrease in the last 3 days, from $99.65 billion on February 10 to $67.82 billion on February 13, with a total decrease of -$31.83 billion. M2 Money Supply Data: M2 value as of December 2024: $21,533.8 billion. Change from the previous month (Nov 2024): +$85.5 billion. Change from last year (Dec 2023): +$808.4 billion. Fed Interest Rate Decision: Main decision: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Bank Reserve Interest Rate: Remains at 4.4%. Primary Credit Rate: Remains at 4.5%. The Federal Reserve will continue its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy by continuing to reduce holdings of Treasury securities and MBS. Market Expectations from CME FedWatch Tool: Current target rate: 425-450 bps (4.25% - 4.50%). Probability for an interest rate of 400-425 bps: 2.5%. Probability for an interest rate of 425-450 bps: 97.5%. Based on this analysis The Federal Reserve has a policy to maintain interest rates stable in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Despite the significant decrease in Reverse Repo and the decrease in TGA, as well as the significant increase in M2 Money Supply, this policy is maintained to support economic stability and reduce excess liquidity in the market. The high probability (97.5%) of the market to maintain or increase the interest rate also reflects strong expectations for a conservative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in the short term. Impact on USD Overall Based on the analysis of data from the Fed Balance Sheet, TGA, RRP, M2 Money Supply, and interest rate expectations, USD is likely to remain stable to strengthen in the short term, especially due to the tight monetary policy (Quantitative Tightening/QT) and the high probability of interest rates remaining in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Components RRP decreased significantly by -$31.83B in 3 days, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in RRP means banks and financial institutions are withdrawing their funds from The Fed and are likely to move into other assets. This increases liquidity in the market, which may weaken the USD due to more dollars circulating, potentially lowering the exchange rate. M2 Money Supply increased by +$808.4B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A significant increase in M2 indicates more money circulating in the economy, which could pressure the purchasing power of the USD. If this growth continues, it resembles a loosening of monetary policy, which could weaken the USD in the long term. The Fed remains with QT & does not lower interest rates, monetary contraction, USD may strengthen The QT policy and no interest rate cuts indicate that the Fed still wants to control inflation and maintain tight monetary policy. This could attract investors to USD-based assets (Treasury Yields), keeping the USD strong compared to other currencies. TGA decreased by -$8.8B weekly, -$22.7B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in TGA balance indicates that the government is withdrawing funds for spending. This means more dollars entering the economy, which could add pressure to weaken the USD in the short term. You can prepare a trading strategy based on the following scenarios: Bullish USD if scenario: The Fed maintains QT, does not cut interest rates, and investors continue buying USD-based assets. Neutral USD if scenario: The Fed maintains interest rates, but RRP & M2 Money Supply continue to rise. Bearish USD if scenario: RRP continues to decrease drastically, M2 increases significantly, and the Fed starts considering interest rate cuts. Short Term (1-3 months): USD is likely to remain strong due to tight monetary policy, but if liquidity continues to increase from RRP and M2, weakening could occur in the next quarter. Long Term (6-12 months): If M2 continues to rise and the Fed changes its policy towards interest rate cuts, USD will gradually weaken. Focus on market reactions to liquidity data such as RRP and M2. If RRP drops drastically & M2 rises, USD weakens. If the Fed maintains QT & high interest rates, USD remains stable. Pay attention to the next FOMC Meeting & liquidity data (M2 & RRP) for further USD trend confirmation. Important Note: Treat the above analysis as a fundamental basis in making your trading decisions. It is suitable for swing traders, but for the short term, it is important to consider geopolitical factors. ICEUS:DXY ICEUS:DX1!
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by CipherOracle
GBP/USD: Bearish Pressure Amid US Inflation and Trade TensionsThe GBP/USD pair has recently declined, closing at 1.24445 on February 12 (-0.0233%) after a 0.6688% increase on February 11. Volatility has dominated recent sessions, with fluctuations between 1.2400 and 1.2500. The decline was triggered by US inflation data, which strengthened expectations of higher Fed rates, weighing on the pound. Despite a 2.5% increase in UK retail sales (compared to the expected 0.2%), GBP struggled to maintain upward momentum, further pressured by uncertainty surrounding US tariffs on steel and aluminum. Technically, support between 1.2320 - 1.2330 remains crucial for potential rebounds towards 1.2550 - 1.2600, but future movements will depend on upcoming economic data and monetary policy expectations on both sides of the Atlantic.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Why you should choose your trading period carefullyFirst, let's look at the four most important trading sessions. The Forex and stock market is divided into different trading sessions, which are based on the opening hours of the main financial centers: Session Opening Hours (UTC) Major Markets: -> Sydney session 22:00 – 07:00 Australia, New Zealand -> Tokyo session 00:00 – 09:00 Japan, China, Singapore -> London session 08:00 – 17:00 UK, Europe -> New York session 1:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. USA, Canada Note: Times vary slightly depending on summer or winter time. Why are trading sessions important? -> Volatility & Liquidity Depending on the session, there are different market movements. High liquidity → tight spreads and better order execution. Low liquidity → greater slippage and wider spreads. -> Active currencies & markets During the Tokyo session, JPY and AUD pairs are particularly active. During the London session, EUR and GBP pairs are the most volatile. During the New York session, USD pairs and stock markets moved the most. Opportunities & risks during overlapping times: The overlaps between sessions are the most volatile times because several major markets are active at the same time. 1. London-New York Overlap (13:00 – 17:00 UTC) → Highest volatility Why? The world's two largest financial centers operate at the same time. Opportunities: Big price moves → good for breakout traders and scalping. High liquidity → tight spreads, fast order execution. Risks: Extreme volatility → rapid price changes can trigger stop losses. News (e.g. US jobs data) can cause sudden movements. Practical example: A trader is watching EUR/USD and sees strong resistance at 1.1000. US inflation data will be released at 13:30 UTC. If the data is better than expected → USD strengthens, EUR/USD falls. If the data is worse → USD weakens, EUR/USD rises. Within a few minutes the price can fluctuate by 50-100 pips. → Strategy: News traders rely on quick movements, while conservative traders extend stop losses or pause during this time. 2. Tokyo-London Overlap (08:00 – 09:00 UTC) → Medium volatility Why? London opens while Tokyo is still active. Opportunities: JPY pairs (e.g. GBP/JPY) are moving strongly. Breakouts through the European opening. Risks: Sudden changes in direction as European traders often have a different market opinion than Asian ones. Practical example: A scalper is trading GBP/JPY in a narrow range of 185.00 – 185.20 during the Tokyo session. At 08:00 UTC London opens with GBP/JPY breaking above 185.50. Within 30 minutes the price rises to 186.00 as European traders buy GBP. If you recognize the breakout early, you can quickly take 50-100 pips. → Strategy: Scalpers rely on quick entries and take profits before volatility subsides. 3. Sydney-Tokyo Overlap (00:00 – 07:00 UTC) → Low volatility Why? Mainly the Asian market is active. Opportunities: Less volatility → good for range trading. Cheaper spreads for AUD and NZD pairs. Risks: Little liquidity → Slippage may occur. Strong moves are rare, except for major news from Japan or Australia. Practical example: A swing trader notes that AUD/USD has been fluctuating between 0.6500 and 0.6550 for days. During the Sydney-Tokyo session the price mostly stays in this range. The trader places a sell limit order at 0.6550 and a buy limit order at 0.6500. Since there is little volatility, it can be profitable with multiple small trades. → Strategy: Range trading is ideal because no major breakouts are expected. Conclusion: Each trading session has its own characteristics, opportunities and risks. The crossovers are the most volatile times - good for day traders, but risky for inexperienced traders. Anyone who understands the market mechanisms can take targeted action at the right time. The strategies mentioned above are simply derivations from the advantages and disadvantages of the respective sessions. Of course, a well-founded strategy concept requires much more.
GBEBROKERS:US500Education
by Speechless-Trading
Trading the VIX - A Balanced Strategy for Smart InvestorsWarning: This strategy is presented as a trading idea and should not be considered guaranteed trading guidance. Traders are responsible for their own decisions and should carefully evaluate risks before executing any trades. Given that VIX is generally between 13 and 20, I designed this option strategy. Combination VIX Vertical Spreads Strategy Overview: Days to Expiry (DTE): 37 Option Positions: Buy VIX 13 Call Sell VIX 15 Put Sell VIX 20 Call × 2 Visualized Setup Strategy Summary: This strategy results in a combination resembling a modified short straddle centered at VIX 20. However, in structure, it is better understood as a short strangle (neutral) combined with a bull call spread (bullish). The bullish component of the spread suggests that the trader expects the VIX to rise above 13 but remain below 20. The inclusion of a short strangle component helps offset the premium of the debit call spread. This structured approach allows for a calculated risk-reward balance, aligning with the trader’s outlook on implied volatility while leveraging option spreads to optimize capital efficiency. Risk and Reward Assessment: The strategy is heavily weighted towards a long VIX bias, meaning the trader anticipates an increase in VIX, though at a measured pace within a month. There is a slight increase in risk to the short side of VIX due to the exposure created by the short options. The expected profit range suggests that VIX volatility will stay within a defined range of 14 to 24. While the trader acknowledges the possibility of VIX exceeding 20, it is not expected to surpass 24. The probability of profit at expiry is estimated at 65% if entered today. Despite the additional short-side risk, the overall risk remains comparable to a standard short strangle. Historical VIX data indicates that the index fluctuates between 12 and 40 on a monthly basis, with a 52-week high of 65.7 and a 52-week low of 10.6. This reinforces the strategy’s inherent higher risk to the long VIX side. Key Considerations for Execution: Event Risk: Confirm that no major events (e.g., geopolitical instability, Federal Reserve announcements) are expected that could push VIX above 30. Entry Timing: Optimal entry is when VIX is at a relatively low level, such as observed last Friday (2/7/2025) morning. Exit Strategy: The position should be closed in approximately two to three weeks or when profit exceeds 100%. Notes and Alternative Strategy: One challenge of this strategy is the uncertainty in determining a precise stop-loss strategy. However, given the nature of a strangle, there is no immediate need to exit within the first 20 days, making it a relatively "lazy" management strategy. The trader has ample time to adjust after the initial 20-day period. Management should be approached by treating the bull call spread and short strangle separately. Given the natural variance of VIX, this approach should not be overly difficult to execute. A suggested alternative strategy might provide more controlled risk exposure. For example, I would start the trade with a butterfly at 20 if I see the potential rise of VIX. Then, I would reassess it after 30 days (assuming DTE=37; a shorter DTE may also be considered). Alternatively, I could simply wait until expiration day to make a final decision. This strategy has a limited loss while maintaining a similar profit potential. The suggested strategy manages the cost-efficiency aspect while also limiting potential losses. The decision-making process can then be based on market direction after the expected conditions begin to form. In comparison to the original strategy in terms of profit and exit timing, the proposed strategy may offer a faster exit, whereas a butterfly setup may require waiting until expiration. However, traders may find early exits possible for condors or strangles. Here is a visualization of the alternative setup: Alternative Strategy Visualization Thank you for reading. Wish you a successful options trading!
TVC:VIXLong
by yungyeh
3
Multi-Timeframe Volume Profile and Divergence StrategyObjective: To combine multi-timeframe analysis, volume profile insights, and divergence patterns for identifying high-probability trades. 1. Strategy Components A. Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Use three timeframes for analysis: Higher timeframe (HTF): To identify the overall trend (e.g., Weekly/4H). Intermediate timeframe (ITF): For spotting critical support/resistance zones (e.g., Daily/1H). Lower timeframe (LTF): For precise entry and exit signals (e.g., 15M/5M). B. Volume Profile: Incorporate Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR): Identify key areas: Point of Control (POC), High Volume Nodes (HVN), and Low Volume Nodes (LVN). Use these levels as dynamic support and resistance. C. Divergence Patterns: Look for Bullish Divergence and Bearish Divergence on oscillators like: Relative Strength Index (RSI) MACD Stochastic RSI Combine divergences with price action near significant volume levels. D. Additional Tools: 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): For trend direction. ATR (Average True Range): For stop-loss and take-profit levels. Fibonacci Retracement: For confluence with volume profile levels. 2. Trading Plan Step 1: Higher Timeframe Trend Identification Use the HTF to establish whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or range. Mark key swing highs, lows, and supply/demand zones. Step 2: Intermediate Timeframe Analysis Apply the Volume Profile on the ITF to find: POC: Indicates price consensus. HVN/LVN: Potential zones for reversals or continuation. Watch for price approaching these levels. Step 3: Lower Timeframe Execution Monitor LTF for: Divergence signals on oscillators. Candle patterns like pin bars, engulfing candles, or inside bars at significant levels. Confirm trades using: Price breaking out of LVN or rejecting HVN. Crossovers of EMA for extra confirmation. 3. Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profi t Entry: Long Position: Price reacts at HVN/LVN near a support level. Bullish divergence on LTF. Short Position: Price tests HVN/LVN near resistance. Bearish divergence on LTF. Stop Loss: Place just beyond recent swing high/low or above/below the LVN/HVN zone. Use ATR (1.5x) for volatility-based placement. Take Profit: First target: Nearby POC or Fibonacci levels. Second target: HTF supply/demand zone
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by realmillionairefx
Nifty50 Trade Setup – February ExpiryAnalyzing the 7th Feb settlement prices using my proprietary OptionSigma model, a key level emerges: 23,698.80. 📌 Bullish Scenario: A clean breakout above 23,698.80 signals strength—potential long opportunities in Nifty February Futures or Monthly Call options. 📌 Bearish Scenario: Failure to breach this level? Shorting is the only play—either via futures or buying put options. ⚡ Stay sharp. Watch the price action around this level for confirmation! #Nifty50 #OptionsTrading #IndexTrading #OptionSigma #FNO #TradingStrategy
NSE:NIFTY1!
by IndexAce
GBP/JPY: Finally, the Rate Cut Has Arrived!GBP/JPY is facing significant bearish pressure, with the price dropping to around 188.40 in the recent sessions on February 6, 2025. The main catalyst behind this trend has been the Bank of England’s interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.5%. This decision has intensified the weakness of the British pound, prompting investors to liquidate long positions and fueling the strong decline in the pair. The market is now pricing in the possibility of further rate cuts in the coming months, which keeps sentiment firmly bearish. From a technical perspective, the breakdown below the key level of 190.50 has confirmed the loss of bullish momentum. Even the recovery attempts seen in previous days, such as the rebound to 193.00 on February 4, have proven weak and incapable of reversing the primary trend. The current phase of weakness could lead the pair to test further lower support levels, with 187.50 and then 185.80 as possible bearish targets unless there is a positive reaction from the pound. On the macroeconomic front, the divergence between the BoE and the Bank of Japan could theoretically provide some medium-term support for the pound, given that the BoJ continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the market currently seems more focused on the deteriorating economic outlook for the UK and the increasing likelihood that the BoE will continue cutting rates, enhancing the yen’s appeal as a defensive asset. If risk-off sentiment intensifies, we could see an acceleration of the bearish trend in GBP/JPY, especially if the global market enters a more pronounced risk-averse phase.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD: Between Rebound Hopes and Tariff TensionsThe EUR/USD pair experienced a strong rebound on Tuesday, rising by 0.8% and breaking a six-day losing streak, although it failed to reclaim the 1.0400 threshold. Despite this recovery, bullish momentum remains fragile as the euro is heavily influenced by broader market flows and the anticipation of upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. The pair found initial support at the weekly low of 1.0209 on February 3, with a potential decline towards the 2025 bottom of 1.0176 if this support fails. A break below this level could pave the way for a test of the psychological parity threshold. On the upside, resistance is identified at 1.0532, the year’s high recorded on January 27. The pair’s recovery was driven by a weakening US dollar, as the Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 108.00 support, influenced by market reactions to President Donald Trump’s plans to delay a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods while maintaining a 10% levy on Chinese imports. Although the US dollar has weakened, the tariff issue is expected to strengthen its position in the long term, potentially supporting a bullish outlook for the currency. Central banks also play a crucial role: the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week, signaling a cautious approach amid strong economic growth, persistent inflation, and low unemployment. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points, hinting at possible further easing while expressing optimism about controlling eurozone inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-driven approach, ruling out the possibility of aggressive rate cuts. Trade tensions, particularly those linked to US tariffs, could further complicate the euro’s outlook. Prolonged tariffs could fuel inflation in the United States, prompting the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, which could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair toward parity. Looking ahead, the euro faces challenges from the resilience of the US dollar, divergent monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed, and structural issues within the eurozone, such as Germany’s economic slowdown. While short-term rallies are possible, the overall outlook for the euro remains uncertain, with persistent risks related to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies likely to shape the pair’s trajectory.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/AUD: The Impact of Tariffs on MarketsThe GBP/AUD exchange rate showed mixed movements from January 27 to February 4, 2025, closing at 1.99489 on February 4 with a decline of approximately 0.42% compared to the previous session. Despite a modest rally on February 3, with an increase of about 0.58%, the subsequent downturn signals prevailing bearish sentiment. This fluctuation highlights a cautious market environment influenced by several key factors. A technical report dated February 4 highlighted a symmetrical triangle pattern where, despite a bullish crossover of the 9-period moving average above the 14-period moving average, the price remains confined between a resistance level around 2.0050. This range-bound behavior reflects traders' hesitation as they await a decisive breakout to confirm the next directional trend. Additionally, geopolitical factors have significantly impacted volatility. The announcement of new U.S. tariffs by President Trump temporarily pushed GBP/AUD above 2.012. However, this rally was short-lived, with the rate retracting shortly after due to market adjustments, demonstrating the pair's sensitivity to external economic policies. Furthermore, risk-off flows have contributed to intermittent strength in GBP/AUD, but the overall sentiment remains mixed. Technical indicators and the persistent narrow trading range indicate ongoing uncertainty, applying continuous downward pressure on the pair.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Strategy 2025. Introducing Palantir, BTC Killer Of The Year 2024It's gone 3 months or so since Palantir stock has joined on Friday, September 20 Stock Top Club, also known as S&P 500 stock index SP:SPX . Palantir was one of the strongest contenders for inclusion in the broad market S&P500 Index. This inclusion, as well as Dell (DELL), came after tech companies Super Micro (SMCI) and Crowdstrike (CRWD) also joined the index earlier in this year 2024. Since that, Palantir stock became the best (i.e. #1) S&P500 index performer this year, with current +375% YTD return in 2024, being highlighted at 80.55 USD per share - the new all the history peak reached last Friday, December, 19 at regular session close. What is most important also, even recent Federal Reserve (The US Central Bank) hawkish projections on monetary policy in 2025 were not able to stop the only game in the city, or even make a pause on Palantir leadership. Since Palantir stock is rallying 7th month in a row, the stalkers remain decently far away, swallowing the galactic dust of Palantir shares. Judge for yourself. One of the nearest pursuer, Nvidia Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA (# 4 out of all S&P500 index performers in 2024) is nearly to finish the year of 2024 with +170% return, i.e. lagging against Palantir behind twice. The quite similar things happen with the most popular and heavy c-coin, also known as Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD that is currently +130% YTD return in 2024. What is most important also, Palantir stock outperforms both - S&P500 index, Nvidia Corp. and Bitcoin 7th straight month in a row. In human words that means, Palantir stock monthly returns (every single month from May to December 2024) were better against each of mentioned above assets. What is Behind this? On November 4, 2024 Palantir Technologies has announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. “We absolutely eviscerated this quarter, driven by unrelenting AI demand that won’t slow down. This is a U.S.-driven AI revolution that has taken full hold. The world will be divided between AI haves and have-nots. At Palantir, we plan to power the winners,” said Alexander C. Karp, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Palantir Technologies Inc. Q3 2024 Highlights • U.S. revenue grew 44% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter to $499 million • U.S. commercial revenue grew 54% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter to $179 million • U.S. government revenue grew 40% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter to $320 million • Revenue grew 30% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter to $726 million • Closed 104 deals over $1 million • Customer count grew 39% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter • GAAP net income of $144 million, representing a 20% margin • GAAP income from operations of $113 million, representing a 16% margin • Adjusted income from operations of $276 million, representing a 38% margin • Rule of 40 score of 68% • GAAP earnings per share (“EPS”) grew 100% year-over-year to $0.06 • Adjusted EPS grew 43% year-over-year to $0.10 • Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury securities of $4.6 billion • Cash from operations of $420 million, representing a 58% margin and $995 million on a trailing twelve month basis • Adjusted free cash flow of $435 million, representing a 60% margin and over $1 billion on a trailing twelve month basis. Is the stock growth fundamentally deserved? Definitely, "Yes". Palantir stock Alpha What is Alpha? Alpha (a) is a term used in investing to describe an investment's ability to beat (outperform) the market, or its “edge.” Alpha is thus also often referred to as excess return or the abnormal rate of return in relation to a benchmark, or any other asset (even against simple sitting in a cash) when adjusted for risk. The main graph represents a comparison across Bitcoin and Palantir stocks. Since Palantir outperforms BTC twice over the past 12 months (watch lower "percent bar chart" subgraph), so why isn't to continue the play, by staying in a long with Palantir, and kill "the new oranges" respectively.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by PandorraResearch
USD/JPY: Will the Fed or BoJ Dominate the Tug of War?The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown both resilience and vulnerability in recent trading sessions, shaped by competing factors from monetary policy shifts to global economic developments. On the positive side, the U.S. dollar remains underpinned by Federal Reserve rate decisions, with market expectations of steady rates in the near term supporting its strength. Tariff threats from the U.S. administration further bolster the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, particularly as external economic pressures persist. Additionally, the pair has demonstrated an ability to recover from lower levels, such as rebounding to 155.50 during Tuesday's Asian trading, aided by softer Japanese service-sector inflation data. However, the Japanese yen has also gained momentum due to the Bank of Japan’s recent 25 basis point rate hike, which reflects a confident stance on inflation and wage growth trends. This decision has increased the yen’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, exacerbating pressure on the USD/JPY pair, particularly as global uncertainties and shifts in risk sentiment encourage investors to diversify into safe havens like the yen and the Swiss franc. Market sentiment surrounding U.S. economic vulnerabilities, including concerns over tariffs and a potential dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, has further weighed on the dollar. Traders are now pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed later this year, a factor that could erode the dollar’s appeal if realized. Overall, while USD/JPY has displayed moments of strength, the competing influences of U.S. dollar dynamics, Japanese yen strength, and global market sentiment create a volatile environment where traders must remain vigilant of economic data and central bank decisions.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MSFT when they reported 49% stake in OpenAI: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 430usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-2-21, for a premium of approximately $15.35. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TopgOptions
Time to "ZOOM" back to winnings ways?On Thursday afternoon, the King Trading Momentum Strategy triggered alongside eleven other alerts, followed by five more on Friday. This flurry of signals doesn’t exactly indicate a “bearish” sentiment, but as always, the market has its unpredictable ways! With markets approaching all-time highs, I’ve been cautious, limiting my positions to just a few with low allocations in TNA, ADBE, PYPL, and XYZ. When I analyzed Zoom (ZM), I noticed that it experienced a strong rally from July through the end of the year, gaining over 50%. Now, the key question is: has it finished consolidating, or is there more downside ahead? Looking back to July, ZM’s performance suggests a classic bull flag pattern. It’s retraced to the 38% Fibonacci level, and during a two-hour window when the signal fired, the impressive “wick” formed caught my attention. Now, after a short-term pump, it’s retracing again, and I’m eyeing the 50% Fibonacci level as a potential entry point. Unless Monday brings a major selloff due to concerns over the Fed meeting on Wednesday or the PCE data on Friday, I’ll likely use the usual morning volatility to position myself in this trade. Let’s see how this one unfolds! The King Trading Momentum Strategy employs a robust combination of indicators: the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum measured by ADX+, and MACD confirmation. ZM, along with over 100 other equities, is integrated into this script with optimized backtested take-profit and stop-loss levels. Activating these parameters is as simple as checking a box (they’re off by default), making this strategy both powerful and user-friendly.
NASDAQ:ZMLong
by KingTrading999
Scenario on XAUUSD 23.1.2025 [update]This analysis will only be about adjusting the level from the previous analysis, because my longivy setup turned out better than I expected, but now the question is what will happen next, I personally would like the scenario as I displayed it with sfp above high and then a proper correction to lower levels is important sr the level is at the price of 2730, if the market holds it then there could be a movement of gold to a new ath, but if this level were to break, my scenario would be fulfilled
PYTH:XAUUSDShort
by Sony97
1
SHOP Go Long! Will it break out this time?Recently SHOP has retraced and held the 50% Fib level and has been trading within a channel where it is about at the mid point of it. The King Trading Momentum Strategy yesterday issued a buy signal. This strategy combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes. It has been forming a bull flag on the hourly and pre-market suggests this may be ready to break out. I followed the signal and bought a half position, looking to protect the trade at take-profit of 4%. During backtest this proved to be an optimum area and a stop-loss of 3% is warranted. SHOP and over 100 equities are built into this script. If trade protects at 4%, a trailing stop-loss of 2% will be adhered to in order to lock in as much profit as possible if this stock breaks out of the descending channel! I'm thinking its not too late for me to add to this position given typical morning volatility.
SLong
by KingTrading999
5
GBP/USD: BOE Is Ready for the Big Cut!GBP/USD shows mixed signals, remaining below 1.2350, influenced by economic and political factors in both the UK and the US. After a strong rally on Monday, the pair lost momentum on Tuesday, driven by the recovery of the US Dollar and overall disappointing UK labor market data. The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and a slowdown in employment growth weigh on the Pound, despite an annual wage increase of 5.6%. From a technical perspective, the RSI on the 4-hour chart signals a loss of bullish momentum, approaching the neutral level of 50 after being in the overbought zone. Key support levels are located at 1.2230 and 1.2200, while resistances are seen at 1.2350. The Pound is also affected by an uncertain macroeconomic context, with Trump's comments indicating potential tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, supporting a recovery in the Dollar due to its safe-haven status. In the absence of significant US economic data, investor focus shifts to stock market performance: a negative opening on Wall Street could support the Dollar, exerting additional bearish pressure on GBP/USD. In the short term, the pair may remain under pressure, with a potential test of key support levels, unless more solid signs of Pound strength or Dollar weakness emerge.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1