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WTI Oil Price Analysis: Market Dynamics and Global ChallengesCurrent Situation: The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has experienced a slight decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar (USD), supported by rising yields. Currently, the price of WTI is around $81.20 per barrel during European hours on Thursday, after gaining ground in the Asian session due to a larger-than-expected drop in US crude oil inventories. Supply and Demand: The reduction in US crude oil inventories has been significant. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of 4.87 million barrels for the week ending July 12, a figure much higher than the expected drop of 0.80 million barrels and the previous decrease of 3.443 million barrels. This decline in inventories may suggest robust domestic demand, which can have a positive effect on oil prices. Impact of Monetary Policies: Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates in September could improve economic conditions in the United States. With lower borrowing costs, economic activity could increase, which in turn could support oil demand. Statements by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin indicate a possible rate cut, which could further incentivize oil demand. Market Pressures: Despite some positive signs, the overall decline in commodity demand expectations continues to threaten the energy complex. According to Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TDS, the absence of an increase in supply risk premia could continue to exert downward pressure on prices. However, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) still have substantial resources to deploy in the market, which could limit price declines in the short term, barring a significant downturn. Global Challenges: Another challenge for WTI oil prices is the economic slowdown in China in the second quarter, which reduces demand from the world's largest oil-importing country. Increasing trade tensions, with new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles imposed by the United States and the European Union, contribute to an uncertain global economic outlook, negatively impacting oil demand.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold's Next Big Move: Is This the Reversal Point?4-Hour Chart Analysis Trend Identification: Higher Highs (HH): The chart shows a consistent formation of higher highs (HH) which indicates an overall uptrend. Higher Lows (HL): The chart also demonstrates higher lows (HL), further confirming the uptrend. Key Levels: Resistance Levels: Around 2,480 and above are marked by HH. Support Levels: 2,429.42 (1HR LQZ / Reversal Point) 2,391.39 (4HR LQZ / TP 1) 2,349.05 (TP 2) 2,288.09 (TP 3) 2,265.37 (TP 4) Price Action: Triangle Pattern: A triangle pattern formed in June indicating consolidation before a breakout. Current Movement: The price has moved up to a higher high but is currently in a retracement phase, testing the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point around 2,429.42. Projection: Potential Reversal: If the price holds above the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point, it may indicate a reversal back towards the higher levels around 2,480. Support Tests: Failure to hold may lead to testing lower support levels at 2,391.39 (4HR LQZ / TP 1) and potentially further down to TP 2, TP 3, and TP 4. 1-Hour Chart Analysis Detailed View: Provides a closer look at the recent price movements. Confirms the higher highs observed in the 4-hour chart. Key Observations: Recent High: The price recently reached a new high around 2,480 before retracing. Immediate Support: The price is testing the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point around 2,429.42, aligning with the 4-hour chart observations. Trading Opportunities: Long Position: If the price shows strong bullish signals and holds above the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point. Short Position: If the price breaks below the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point, with targets at lower support levels identified in the 4-hour chart. Summary The charts indicate an overall uptrend with recent higher highs and higher lows. Current price action is in a retracement phase, testing key support levels. Monitoring the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point will be crucial for determining the next move, whether it will resume the uptrend or test further support levels. If you need further analysis or specific trade recommendations, feel free to ask!
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Adlercon333
US Banks Set a Bullish Tone at the Start of Earnings SeasonUS Banks Set a Bullish Tone at the Start of Earnings Season Company earnings reports for the second quarter will be a crucial driver of stock market movements in the coming weeks. Traditionally, the largest banks kick off the earnings season, and their performance indicators today are setting a bullish tone. For example: Bank of America (BAC), report published on 16th July: → Earnings per share: actual = $0.83, expected = $0.797; → Gross income: actual = $25.37 billion, expected = $25.22 billion; Goldman Sachs (GS), report published on 15th July: → Earnings per share: actual = $8.62, expected = $8.35; → Gross income: actual = $12.73 billion, expected = $12.35 billion. Other major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC), have also surpassed analysts' expectations. Although following different trajectories, the stock prices of all the listed banks have generally been rising after the publication of their earnings reports. Notably, the formation on the XLF chart is interesting – this is the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF, which is focused on the financial sector and includes the shares of the largest US banks. You can trade this ETF with FXOpen, taking advantage of CFD instruments. Technical analysis of the XLF chart shows that: → In 2022-2023, the price was in a broad trading range of 30.70-36.6; → In 2023-2024, the price formed an upward channel (shown in blue); → The median line of this channel acts as support; → Rising lows A and B resemble a bullish Cup and Handle pattern. In the wake of the successful bank reports: → the XLF price broke through the 42.20 level, which had been acting as resistance since the end of March; → the RSI indicator entered the overbought zone. It is possible that amid positive earnings reports from other companies in the financial sector: → the XLF price could reach the upper boundary of the blue channel; → the RSI indicator could form a divergence; → subsequently, a correction may form on the chart as investors may wish to lock in profits from the rapid growth. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AMEX:XLF
by FXOpen
1
High-Impact News Trading StrategiesHigh-Impact News Trading Strategies Trading in the dynamic world of foreign exchange demands a constant adaptation to the ever-evolving factors influencing currency markets. Among these factors, high-impact forex news stands out as a catalyst capable of reshaping market action. In this article, we explore some of the nuances of high-impact news trading, aiming to offer insights that may help manage high volatility and harness its power. Trading High-Impact News Understanding which news releases wield significant influence over the forex market and what market reaction can be expected is paramount for any trader. Forex News with High Impact High-impact news includes events like interest rate decisions, inflation rates, retail sales, consumer spending, labour market data, and nonfarm payroll reports. The impact of these events can be profound, affecting market sentiment and, thus, currency values. Traders keen on mastering this domain must comprehend the dynamics that drive market reactions to such news and position themselves accordingly. It's important to note that these news events can cause extreme volatility in either direction, creating both challenges and opportunities. Forex News Impact Analysis Traders analyse the potential impact of events on currency pairs, employing a combination of technical and fundamental analysis. Fundamental Impact of Economic Data Fundamental analysis involves evaluating the economic factors that underpin a currency's value based on the country's economic health. Traders delve into the consensus forecast, scrutinise historical data, and gauge the prevailing economic climate to gain insights into how these fundamental elements might shape market reactions. Technical Analysis Simultaneously, technical analysis plays a vital role in deciphering the market sentiment and potential price movements. Utilising technical analysis tools such as indicators, support and resistance levels, and trendlines, traders can identify key entry and exit points. By integrating technical analysis, traders gain a more comprehensive view of the market, potentially enhancing their ability to make informed decisions. Forex News Trading Strategies Considering the expected impact of economic data and utilising advanced technical analysis tools based on past forex rates performance, traders can design viable trading strategies at times of major news releases. Retracement Trading: Unveiling Potential Reversals Retracement trading is a strategic approach that capitalises on market pullbacks following significant movements triggered by high-impact news. Look at the example of trading on the US CPI announcement in November 2023: - Fibonacci Retracement: Helps identify key support and resistance areas where price corrections may occur. - Moving Averages: The 9- and 20-period MAs can be applied as a trend confirmation. Entry Traders identify significant Fibonacci retracement levels, typically 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, or 78.6%, and look for alignment with a bullish/bearish MA crossover to confirm entry points for a long/short position. Stop Loss Stop loss may be placed just below (for long positions) or above (for short positions) the identified Fibonacci retracement level to safeguard against unexpected market reversals. Take Profit A potential signal for a take-profit point could be an MA crossover in the opposite direction of a trade following a failed attempt of the price to break a resistance/support level that coincides with a Fibonacci extension level. Do you already have a strategy for the upcoming high-impact forex news today? Visit FXOpen and trade on the free TickTrader forex trading platform. Trend-Change Trading Strategy Trading during major news releases demands a nimble and precise approach to capitalise on medium-term price fluctuations. This strategy incorporates three technical indicators simultaneously to evaluate the strength of the price movement and determine potential entry and exit points. In this approach, we utilise: - Relative Strength Index (RSI): Identifying overbought or oversold conditions. - Stochastic Oscillator: Gauging the strength of a price trend. - Average True Range (ATR): Measuring market volatility, helping to settle appropriate stop-loss levels. Entry Following a major price move on the news event, traders could identify weakness in an uptrend/downtrend by observing the divergence of both RSI and Stochastic indicators with the price movement. A potential entry for a long/short position involves aligning bullish/bearish signals from RSI and Stochastic, such as crossing above/below oversold/overbought areas. Stop Loss Stop loss could be placed just below recent lows or above recent highs for long and short trades, respectively, factoring in the ATR to account for potential market volatility. Take Profit Traders may determine possible take-profit points by considering bearish/bullish signals from RSI and Stochastics. Exploiting Increased Volatility Trading during high-impact news events requires a specialised strategy that accounts for increased market volatility. A sound volatility-based approach implements specific indicators so traders may be able to capitalise on rapid forex rate deviations. The chart shows trading on Japan’s industrial production data release at the end of October 2023, and we use: - Bollinger Bands: These help identify potential surges in volatility through band expansion. - ATR (Average True Range): This can be used for trailing stop-loss levels - MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): A surge in buying or selling pressure can be reflected in MACD crossovers. Entry Traders would monitor Bollinger Bands for an expansion preceding news events. Price cross above/below the middle Bollinger Band after the release may signal an entry point for long/short positions. This should align with a bullish/bearish MACD crossover. Stop Loss Traders may place stop-loss orders just beyond recent price extremes to account for potential market reversals and limit possible losses and use the ATR indicator to calculate trailing stop-loss levels. Take Profit A possible take-profit level for long/short trades can be derived from a bearish/bullish reversal of the MACD indicator, or it can be set based on the expected price range derived from the ATR. Concluding Thoughts Trading high-impact forex news requires a mix of market analysis, risk management, and strategic execution. By understanding the dynamics of high-impact events and implementing robust trading strategies, traders may navigate the volatility inherent in these situations. Ready to trade on major economic news? You can open an FXOpen account and try out your strategies. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
5
WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the start of the reversal on WAL: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 65usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2024-9-20, for a premium of approximately $1.60. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:WALShort
by TopgOptions
USOIL | The Sell Off is nearWTI crude oil prices have shown a downward trend in recent sessions, falling for three consecutive days. Currently, WTI stands around the $80.70 region, recording a daily loss of about 0.40%. Despite this decline, the price remains above the overnight swing low, suggesting a lack of conviction among sellers. Factors Influencing Prices Chinese Economy: Economic Growth Data: Official data released on Monday showed that China's economy grew by 4.7% in the second quarter of 2024, down from 5.3% in the first quarter. This has fueled concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy, the world's largest oil importer, and a consequent decrease in fuel demand. Impact on the Oil Market: Concerns about Chinese demand are a key factor exerting downward pressure on crude oil prices. Strength of the US Dollar (USD): Dollar Recovery: The US dollar has gained traction, recovering from a more than three-month low touched on Monday. A stronger dollar makes USD-denominated oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thereby reducing demand. Monetary Policy Outlook: The growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve might start a rate-cutting cycle as early as September could limit further dollar gains, partially mitigating the negative effect on oil prices. Supply Concerns: Middle East Conflicts: Concerns about potential supply disruptions due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to support oil prices. This factor could limit further losses in the short term. Forecasts and Expectations Price Range: WTI seems to remain confined within a familiar range maintained over the past two weeks, with prices oscillating around the $80.70-$81.30 region. Awaiting External Impulses: Market participants are now waiting for US retail sales data to find new drivers that could influence prices. Need for Confirmation: To position for a further extension of the recent pullback from levels near $84.00, it would be prudent to wait for more convincing selling signals.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD is ready to reach $2500 before the crash!Current Overview Gold (XAU/USD) has regained traction, trading in positive territory slightly above $2,420 after dipping towards $2,400 at the beginning of the week. Technical Analysis Daily Chart: The bullish outlook for XAU/USD remains strong despite a retreat from intraday highs. The daily chart shows that the pair is rallying well above bullish moving averages. Technical indicators are gaining upward momentum and approaching overbought readings, with no signs of reversal. 4-Hour Chart: In the near term, XAU/USD might face challenges in extending its gains. Technical indicators are retreating from overbought readings with uneven strength but remain above the bullish 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $2,400. Key Levels Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the recent high of $2,439. If XAU/USD surpasses this level, it could test the year-to-date high of $2,450. Further gains could target the $2,500 level. Support Levels: Initial support is at $2,400. Market Sentiment US Dollar Dynamics: Demand for the US Dollar initially increased following the weekend news of an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. However, the Greenback quickly lost ground as investors speculated that a potential Trump election win might lead to looser fiscal policies. Fed Policy Outlook: Moody’s Credit Rating Agency predicts that the Federal Reserve could start easing monetary policy as early as this month, with potential rate cuts of 50-75 basis points in 2024 and an additional 100-125 basis points by 2025. This dovish outlook has bolstered gold prices, as lower rates make non-interest-bearing assets like gold more attractive. Economic Data: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in weaker than expected, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, as reflected by falling US Treasury bond yields. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a seven-month low of 66.0 in July, missing expectations, which further supports the case for rate cuts. Additional Influences Global Factors: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) decided to halt gold purchases in June, as it did in May. By the end of June, China held 72.80 million troy ounces of gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
HOW-TO: Cyato Bands █  Overview Welcome to the getting started page dedicated to my automated trading strategy Cyatophilum Bands, which is in continuous development. The strategy principle is to identify consolidation areas, catch breakouts and ride the trend as long as possible. █  Trade examples Breakout from Tight Consolidation Price consolidates within a narrow range and identifies the breakout point. False Breakout Avoidance Filter out noise from the market by incorporating volume, trend and range filters. Multi-Timeframe Analysis Set the Bands time frame higher than the current chart to perform MTF analysis. Reversal Confirmation In the strategy direction settings, you can choose to go long, short or both. Profitable Trend Continuation A cool feature the take profit has is that it gets disabled when the trend is strong and clear, allowing to play safe in a ranging market, while maximizing profits in strong trends. █  Indicator settings Bands Settings The band configuration settings allow you to create any kind of band, my favorite is the Donchian channels, but you can also create Bollinger and Kelter kinds of bands. Filter Settings The entry is triggered by a band breakout, but only that is not enough to create a solid strategy. Adjust the consolidation area, set a volume, range and trend filter to strengthen your entry. Stop Loss Settings Easily create a stop loss system using %, ATR, pips or AUTO calculation modes. Add a trailing stop using ATR or Classic modes. (more modes can be added upon request) Take Profit Settings Set a take profit system using also different modes and the amazing feature to disable take profit during strong trends. Backtest Settings Backtest quickly using the information panel. See if you beat buy and hold and ATH buy and hold, as well as other stats like daily return. █  Backtesting results & preconfigured charts BTC/USDT Snapshot: Chart : www.tradingview.com (Access Required) ETH/USDT Snapshot: Chart : www.tradingview.com (Access Required) BNB/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com (Access Required) SOL/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com (Access Required) ADA/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com AVAX/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com LINK/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com MATIC/USDT Snapshot: Chart: www.tradingview.com IMX/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com █ SCRIPT ACCESS Indicator and automation tools access can be purchased on my website. Links in my signature below.
Education
by cyatophilum
EURUSD heading towards 1.10!Current Overview EUR/USD is defensive below 1.0900 in the Asian session on Monday, edging lower amid risk aversion following the shooting incident at a Trump rally. This event has bolstered the US Dollar due to its safe-haven appeal. The pair's focus remains on US politics and upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials. Technical Analysis Support Levels: The first support is at 1.0840-1.0850. Further support is at 1.0800. Resistance Levels: If EUR/USD rises above 1.0900 and confirms this level as support, it could target 1.0950 and then 1.1000. Market Sentiment US Inflation Data: Recent soft inflation data from the United States has put downward pressure on the US Dollar. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis, while core CPI increased by only 0.1%. Both readings were below market expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged in September has declined to below 10% from over 20% before the CPI data release. Additional Influences US Political Climate: The recent incident during a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where former President Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt, has increased risk aversion and supported the US Dollar. US Economic Data: The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to 2.6% year-on-year in June from the previous revised 2.4%, above the expected 2.3%. Core PPI increased to 3.0% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 66.0 in July from 68.2 in June, missing expectations of 68.5. The UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 2.9% from the previous 3.0%. Fed Outlook: Analysts from Fitch suggest that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might cut interest rates sooner than expected due to concerns about the labor market. Fed officials are likely to be cautious about additional weaknesses in the labor market. Eurozone Outlook: Eurozone officials expect pricing pressures to remain stable throughout the year, reducing expectations for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a cautious approach, highlighting uncertainties in the growth outlook.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Bitcoin’s Pivotal Moment: Key Technical and Fundamental InsightsTechnical Analysis Neutral: 1 - Price action has been fluctuating in a falling channel from around the 1 March 2024 and appears to be respecting support and resistance lines since. 2 - Price has fallen 28% since ATH compared to the 56% crash in the previous cycle during the same period. Bearish: 1 - Price fell below the 125 day SMA level around the 20th of June and has been trading below since. 2 - The 60,000 BTC/USD psychological level has also been broken and not regained for approx 2 weeks. 3 - Volume since ATH has been approximately 7% over the same period in previous cycle. 4 - Price has clear short term bearish momentum Bullish: 1 - Subtle Bullish Divergence on the RSI chart 2 - Price is trading above the shaded support area supported by volume session profile and clear historical trends. 3 - Extreme Fear displayed on the Fear and greed index. Fundamental Analysis: 1 - Real GDP has grown consistently over the past 10 quarters. 2 - Inflation appears to be easing with new US CPI appear beating analysts estimates but concerns about being behind the curve estimating a inflation to rise again in the winter. 3 - Short term unemployment data seems improving but as interest rates are still high a record number of credit defaults occurring which could potentially lead to worsened employment data by end of year. 4 - Gold price hitting ATH reflecting uncertainty due to heightened geopolitical tension. Pattern A cup and handle formation can be observed since Nov 2021 but handle seems elongated which might invalidate such pattern. Summary: With the current Bitcoin price at $58,637 and a 50% increase YTD, we can assert that the market is still in a bullish cycle. However, some critical points need to be analysed. Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin is trading at a crucial level. A breakdown below the $53,000 level would not inspire confidence and is likely to lead to a continuation down to the $49,500 level. This is a significant threshold, as a break below it could trigger substantial selling pressure. For Bitcoin to reverse this trend, it is crucial to reclaim the $60,000 psychological level, with trading above $61,000 providing confirmation. Subsequently, reclaiming the critical SMA level around $65,000 could likely lead to a new all-time high. Macro indicators suggest that most positive news has already been priced in. However, the overall geopolitical climate is radiating uncertainty, which is negative for the market. This is exacerbated by factors such as the upcoming US elections, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the Israel-Gaza conflict.Additionally, the Bitcoin hash rate is falling for the first time in two years, though a short-term drop does not confirm a long-term trend. Given these factors, I believe that BTC/USD will continue to trend downward in the short term until approximately late August/early September. The extent of this downward trend will depend on the behaviour at the key levels mentioned and the global climate. A reclaim of $65,000 would invalidate this bearish outlook.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Parsa_f
1
USDJPY towards 154 or 166?Current Situation USD/JPY is holding at elevated levels near 161.00 during Asian trading on Tuesday. The high-risk sentiment, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut, contributes to the pair's latest increase. All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for further indications on monetary policy. Recent Data and Technical Indicators Daily Chart: On Wednesday, July 3, USD/JPY posted a bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern, followed by a bearish down day, confirming the bearish sentiment. Support and Resistance: Support: The pair found support at the April 29 high of 160.32, forming a price gap indicating potential exhaustion. Resistance: It is currently trading against resistance from the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Key Factors Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Speculation about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, with the CME’s FedWatch tool indicating a 76.2% probability, up from 65.5% the previous week. Powell’s Testimony: Market participants are awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the US Congress for further insights into future policy direction. Japanese Yen Weakness: The JPY is extending losses due to foreign asset purchases by Japanese individuals under the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) program and concerns over potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the FX markets. US Treasury Yields: Rising speculation about a Fed rate cut is putting pressure on US Treasury yields, which could limit the upside for the US Dollar. Market Sentiment and Projections Short-term Trend: USD/JPY remains in a short-term downtrend. However, given the exhaustion gap and the strong medium to long-term uptrend, there is a risk the pair could continue recovering. Potential Targets: Upside: If the pair surpasses 161.40, it would be a bullish signal, with further gains potentially reaching 162.90. Downside: A break below 160.20 would confirm further downside towards a probable target of 158.50.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
A Simple/Consistent Trading Strategy Using AnchorBars For AllI was talking with a friend today and he stated he just wanted something simple and consistent. He stated he was using Weekly, Daily, and 30 Min charts to try to confirm his trade setups. He did not want to swing for trades too often - only when the Weekly, Daily, 30 Min charts aligned. I've build multiple systems somewhat like the one I'm showing you in this video. The trick to managing this system is to avoid consolidation periods. When price settles into an extended sideways range - you want to cut your trading down to almost NOTHING and wait for a more defined trend. Here you go. Simple and easy. If you don't understand AnchorBars, you can learn more on my other TradingView videos. Go Get Some...
AMEX:DIAEducation
by BradMatheny
2
EUR/USD Heading towards 1.095?Current Situation EUR/USD has shown signs of losing traction but remains above the 1.0800 level after peaking above 1.0840, its highest in three weeks. Despite the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increasing more than expected in June, downward revisions for May and April have prevented the USD from gaining strength. Technical Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): On the 4-hour chart, RSI has risen above 70, indicating that EUR/USD is technically overbought. However, this overbought condition does not necessarily signal an imminent drop, as long as key support levels hold. Support Levels: The 1.0800 level, which coincides with the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), is a crucial support. A drop below this level could see the next supports at 1.0760 and 1.0730-1.0740. Resistance Levels: On the upside, the 1.0840 level (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) serves as interim resistance, followed by the psychological level of 1.0900. Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment Nonfarm Payrolls: The US NFP report exceeded expectations with a rise to 206K, higher than the forecasted 190K, but revisions for previous months and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% have tempered the positive impact. Unemployment Rate: Increased to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021, slightly higher than the expected 4.0%. Average Hourly Earnings: Growth slowed to 3.9% YoY, matching expectations but down from the previous 4.1%. Market Expectations Fed Policy: The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 25% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave the policy rate unchanged in September. Weak job data could push the USD down further, as markets may price in a September rate cut. Conversely, stronger-than-expected NFP data could lead to reassessments regarding the timing of the Fed’s policy adjustments, potentially triggering a downward correction in EUR/USD. Upcoming Economic Events Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Appearance: Traders will look for insights on monetary policy direction. EU and US Inflation Data: Final inflation figures will be released on Thursday, which could impact EUR/USD movements. German Retail Sales and US PPI: Scheduled for next Friday, these data points will provide additional market cues.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Ultimate Trading Strategy: Reaction to Supply and Demand Levels!🔍 Identifying Potential Buy or Sell Zones: In this step, you need to identify the zones that are likely to react and wait for the price to potentially reach them. ⏳📊 🌟 With the reaction to the first area, a buy trade is activated. 🌟 📝 Confirmations: 📉 Reaction to the expected area – Watch for a price movement hitting our anticipated zone! 🛠️ Formation of a combined hammer pattern – Look out for this powerful reversal signal! 📈 Formation of a bullish engulfing pattern – A strong indicator of upward momentum! 🔍 Trading Tips: 💡 High-risk stop-loss location: 👉 Place it below the candlestick pattern. At least twice the spread to ensure you're covered! 📏🔒 💡 Lower-risk stop-loss location: 👉 Place it below the expected area. Again, at least twice the spread for extra safety! 📏🔒 💰 Take-profit strategy: 👉 Base it on risk management mathematics, such as risk-reward ratios of 2, 4, and 6. 👉 Alternatively, observe reactions to past market areas, especially near important market highs and lows. 📊📈 🎯 Entry point strategies: 👉 Enter at the close of the confirmation candle. 👉 Or, set a limit order around 50% of the confirmation candle for a bigger volume opportunity! 📉📈 🌟 Buying in Two Phases: A Smart and Exciting Strategy! 🌟 🔹 Phase One: When you reach a profit of twice the risk, exit the trade. Why? Because the Asian high has been hunted and the candlestick formed has a long upper shadow. 🌄💹 💡 Analysis: The price hasn’t reached other zones yet and has risen in reaction to the first expected zone. Therefore, we expect a pullback and continued upward movement. 💪📈 So, I’ll place a second buy trade. 🚀💵 🔍 Confirmations for the Second Buy Trade: A double bottom has formed, marked with an X. ❌❌ A small hammer candlestick has swept the double bottom. 🔨 A long positive shadow candlestick has swept the bottom and reacted to a small order block on the left. 🌟 💡 Tips for the Second Buy Trade: Enter at the close of the long-shadowed doji candlestick or place a stop limit order above the long-shadowed doji candlestick. 📉📈 The stop loss should be below this candlestick. 📏🔒 🔹 Phase Two: Next, the price has reached an expected reaction zone from where we expected a price drop. 🌐💡 🔍 Confirmations for the Sell Trade: Reaction to the expected zone. 🔍 An inverse hammer candlestick reacting to the zone. 🔨 💡 Tips for the Sell Trade: The entry point should be in a candlestick with a negative signal indicating a price drop. This hammer candlestick can indicate a decline. 📉🔻 The target can be a reward of 2 or the last price bottom. 🎯💰 The stop loss should preferably be behind the expected zone. 📏🔒 🔥 Important Points!!: Since the price hasn’t deeply penetrated the zones, there’s a chance it might go higher or even mitigate this zone twice, ultimately turning it into a pullback for a further price rise. 🚀📈 Continuing on, the price reached the upper zone area. We expected a price drop from this zone, but it reached at 03:15, which is outside our trading session. However, we could have traded on it. 🔍 Sell Confirmations: The price has reached the expected zone. An inverse hammer candlestick pattern. 💡 Interesting Fact: If you had placed a limit order around the midpoint of the previous two zones, you would have profited by now. So, for this zone, you can also place a limit order around 50% of it. Continuing further, other zones have formed below that could be useful for new trades. ✨ Successful Sell Trade Achieved, Reaching a Reward of 4 Times the Risk. 📉 During the session continuation, the trend line was broken, triggering an upward price pullback. 🔹 Now, at the beginning of the session, we have a new zone, likely a selling order placement area. We're taking the risk on this zone. This time, we can place the trade around 50% of it. 🚀💼 🔥 Alright, what's your take now? 🔥 🌟 Is the price reacting to this level or not? 🌟 🚀📈 or 📉💥 Where are the upper zones located? What do you think? 🤔💬
Education
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
Paper Trading Challenge: Which Strategy Did the Best, Winner is The winner has now been decided! In this thrilling paper trading battle, we put four powerful trading strategies to the test: Harmonics Trading Strategy, Sentiment Trading Strategy, RSAI Blueprint Strategy, and Market Structure Strategy. Throughout this episode, we: Explained the fundamentals of each strategy. Demonstrated real-time application of each trading approach. Tracked and analyzed trades executed by each strategy. Compared performance metrics including win/loss ratio, average return, and overall profitability. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, this video offers valuable insights into the practical application of these popular trading techniques. Watch till the end to see which strategy emerges victorious and to learn tips and tricks you can incorporate into your own trading practice. 🔔 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more trading strategy battles and tutorials!
Education
by TruthakaWallStreetakaCookie
USDJPY: Bullish Outlook USD/JPY Analysis 1. Recent Performance Current Trend: USD/JPY trades around 159.70 on Monday, maintaining a bullish bias. The pair is testing the upper boundary of an ascending channel pattern on the daily chart. Japanese Yen Stability: The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds its ground, likely due to verbal intervention by Japanese authorities. Masato Kanda, Japan's top currency diplomat, stated his readiness to intervene around the clock if necessary to prevent excessive movements in the forex market. 2. Technical Analysis Bullish Indicators: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50 level, indicating upward momentum. Surpassing the upper threshold of the ascending channel pattern will reinforce the bullish sentiment, potentially pushing the pair toward 160.32, a major resistance level last seen in April, marking the highest level in over thirty years. Support Levels: Immediate support is at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.42. A breach below this level could increase downward pressure on USD/JPY, targeting the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 155.60. Further support is at the throwback level of 152.80, which could be tested if the lower boundary is broken. 3. Fundamental Context US Dollar Dynamics: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged lower due to a decline in yields on US Treasury bonds. However, the downside for the USD may be limited as higher-than-expected US PMI data has delayed expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is now priced at 65.9%, down from 70.2% a week earlier. Yield Differentials: Despite lower US Treasury yields, USD/JPY remains near 160, driven by the large yield differentials. Value investors are deterred by carry traders, suggesting that significant rate cuts by the Fed might be necessary to change this dynamic. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces a prolonged period of economic challenges, potentially extending through the summer and autumn. 4. Market Sentiment Verbal Intervention: The Japanese authorities, particularly Masato Kanda, have emphasized their readiness to intervene to prevent excessive volatility in the forex market. This stance provides some support to the JPY. Fed Rate Cut Speculation: Speculation around the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts has a significant impact on USD/JPY. Delays in rate cuts support the USD, contributing to the pair's current bullish momentum. Conclusion USD/JPY is trading around 159.70 with a bullish outlook, reinforced by technical indicators and the current yield differential environment. Immediate resistance is at 160.32, while support is found at 158.42 and lower at 155.60. The pair's performance is influenced by verbal interventions from Japanese authorities and ongoing speculation regarding the Fed's interest rate policy. Market participants will continue to monitor these factors for further direction.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Bearish OutlookGBP/USD Analysis 1. Recent Performance Current Trend: GBP/USD trades in positive territory above 1.2650 in the second half of Monday. Following a strong performance due to upbeat PMI data on Friday, the US Dollar has weakened amid a positive shift in risk sentiment, allowing GBP/USD to extend its rebound. Previous Movements: GBP/USD fell below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2640 on Friday but closed the week above this level, indicating sellers' hesitancy. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has recovered toward 50. 2. Technical Analysis Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.2700 (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart). Additional resistance is found at 1.2720-1.2730 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend, 100-period SMA) and 1.2800 (psychological level, static level). Support Levels: If GBP/USD falls below 1.2640 and uses it as resistance, the next bearish targets are 1.2600 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). Market Indicators: Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD touched its weakest level since mid-May near 1.2620 on Friday. Despite ending the week in negative territory, GBP/USD stages a correction and trades above 1.2650 on Monday. 3. Fundamental Context US Dollar Dynamics: The USD gained strength heading into the weekend after the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for June showed robust expansion in the US private sector. Early Monday, the USD stays under modest bearish pressure amid an improving risk mood, helping GBP/USD hold its ground. Upcoming Data: The US economic docket will feature the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. These are unlikely to trigger significant market reactions, with investors likely remaining focused on risk perception. Market Sentiment: Mixed actions in Wall Street, with Dow Futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq Futures down 0.1%, could make it difficult for GBP/USD to continue stretching higher. 4. Pound Sterling Performance Current Position: The Pound Sterling gains ground against the US Dollar, trading around 1.2650 in early New York session on Monday, rebounding from last week’s sharp sell-off. The upside move in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has paused and struggles to extend above the immediate resistance of 106.00. Economic Indicators: The near-term outlook for the USD has strengthened after the S&P Global PMI report showed unexpected expansion in the manufacturing and service sectors, with the Composite PMI jumping to 51.7. Despite the improved PMI figures, inflation concerns have eased, aligning with the Fed's 2% inflation target. 5. Bank of England and Market Expectations Interest Rate Outlook: Market speculation for the Bank of England (BoE) to begin lowering its key borrowing rates in August has increased after a dovish monetary policy statement. The BoE’s decision to hold interest rates at 5.25% was “finely balanced,” signaling potential rate cuts. Annual headline inflation has returned to the desired rate of 2%, but officials remain cautious about persistent service inflation, which decelerated to 5.7% in May. UK Economic Outlook: The UK’s economic outlook faces uncertainty after the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS PMI report showed unexpected slowing in the service sector, though the Manufacturing PMI expanded faster than expected. The slowdown reflects business environment uncertainty ahead of the general election, causing a hiatus in decision-making. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair is currently trading above 1.2650, showing signs of recovery amid a weakened US Dollar and positive risk sentiment. Technically, the pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2700 and has support at 1.2640 and below. Fundamentally, the outlook is influenced by US PMI data and BoE's interest rate expectations. The market will continue to monitor risk sentiment and upcoming economic indicators for further direction.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Recovery: Navigating Key Resistance Amid Mixed SignalsEUR/USD Analysis 1. Recent Trend Recovery Trend: EUR/USD is showing a recovery momentum, approaching 1.0750 after closing the previous week in negative territory. Improved Risk Sentiment: The improved risk sentiment hampers USD demand, aiding EUR/USD's rise. 2. Technical Analysis Moving Averages: On the daily chart, EUR/USD is below all its moving averages. The bearish 20 SMA crosses below the 100 and 200 SMAs, all in the 1.0780/90 price zone. Technical Indicators: The technical indicators are slightly higher, moving away from oversold levels but still far from their midlines. Short-Term Scenario: The short-term picture shows increasing buying pressure. The EUR/USD pair is above the 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages maintain their bearish slopes above the current level. Technical indicators aim higher around neutral levels but struggle to surpass their midlines. 3. Key Levels Support: 1.0705 1.0660 1.0615 Resistance: 1.0755 1.0805 1.0845 4. Fundamental Context USD Pressure: The US Dollar is under mild selling pressure ahead of Wall Street's opening, giving up modest intraday gains. EUR/USD trades around 1.0730, recovering from an intraday low of 1.0681. Inflation and Political Jitters: Focus is on political concerns and inflation, particularly the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. FOMC Minutes: The macroeconomic calendar will include the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with limited impact on financial markets due to the Fed's recent economic projections. 5. European Economic Data German IFO: Germany published the June IFO Business Climate Index, which unexpectedly fell to 88.6 from 89.3 in May, missing the estimate of 89.7. Expert Assessment: FX strategists at Societe Generale note that expectations are down. 6. Future Outlook Short-Term Scenario: The EUR/USD pair needs to surpass 1.0760 to confirm positive momentum and extend gains towards the 1.0810 price zone. Market Considerations: Despite lowered expectations, the Euro is advancing even with tepid local data and might face resistance in reaching higher levels like 1.08. Conclusion The technical and fundamental outlook for EUR/USD suggests that despite a recovery momentum, the pair remains under pressure with significant resistance around 1.0760 and beyond. Economic dynamics and market expectations will continue to play a crucial role in the pair's performance, with particular attention to US economic data and Fed decisions.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1