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Streak

How to go through a LOSING STREAK better? 🍏1. Everything starts with preparation and true expectations. Losing streaks will happen from time to time, accept it if you want to be a good trader. Even the best traders on the planet have them. But it’s the reaction to them that separates good and bad traders. Know your probability of losing streak, based on your own backtesting and accept them before they even happen. Keep longterm focus! 🍋2. Make sure you’re practicing process based trading, not outcome based. Before every trade, ask yourself if anyone in the whole worlds can say the outcome of any individual trade? The answer is obvious - no one can do it. So is it rational to build expectation of a specific market moves in this individual trade, or nearest several trades - that they are completely uncertain and you are working with random distribution of your edge. 🥥3. Once in a streak, remind yourself about your testing. See that over the past 200 or more trades, you were profitable, at least RR wise. These 5-6 losing trades you’re having now are just a very small part of a huge data collection you did before, and they are part of random distribution. 🍈4. In a losing streak, there’s usually an urge to trade more to earn the lost $ amount back. It’s a mistake, as overtrading will lead to only one outcome - even more loss in short or longterm perspective. 🍎5. In the past, I wanted to reach some state of unbreakable consistency, "once and for all", and when I thought I did it, I started to expect things to be easy from now on and not to struggle or put effort, cause now I'm fully consistent. And that was exact moment when everything fell apart. The truth is, at least for me and for now, is that I need to make good decisions - mentally and technically - EVERY DAY and EVERY MOMENT, to actually prove I'm consistent. And consistency is dynamic, I'll continue to work on it, it's like gardening, when you need to put some effort everyday and it's never fixed or done, at least for me.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
3
Recency Bias With Streaks and Occurrence FrequencyIn this video idea, I discuss the idea of how to check for bias in recent events in an indicator by requiring that X of the last Y candles meet a certain condition. It is common to refer to recency bias as something that can skew your view on things based on recent events. In this case, I am referring to applying a bias to our indicator based on recent events. I show you how I go about checking for occurrence frequency to require that X of Y candles are red in this example. Specifically, we check for at least 3 red candles in the last 4 or 5 candles. By using float values to represent true or false with a 1 or 0 we can easily sum the values of the 1 or 0 on our conditions for the last Y candles. Once we get the occurrence account we can compare the occurrence that actually occurred to the number we actually required on X. We take this a step farther and show how this might be used by requiring another condition to be true on the current candle as well and plot to share when this next condition is true or false (1:0) as well.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by BigBitsIO
1
Bitcoin's Bull/Bear Streak HistoryOn the one-day chart, I counted how long each of Bitcoin's streaks were. How long were the up streaks and how long were the down streaks. Some subjective, but understandable, criteria was added. Lone doji's are not factored in. Doji's in between streaks are ignored because I think most traders would have the patience to hold for a day, especially if it meant more growth the next few days. For example, if a 4day bear trend growth was 1% / 1% / 2% / 3%, I wouldn't count the first two because that is not enough confirmation but if they were in between a stretch of growth, they would be considered because this chart is based on when to hold and when to sell. Duration is measured over ROI because traders care about how long they need to hold and how long they need to abstain. If you observed any interesting trends out of this, please let me know in the comments. One I've observed is symmetry, perhaps having to do with phases of accumulation and distribution. How many days a market surges can give us an indication of how many days it corrects. If a market is forming a reversal, we can set our expectations within the ballpark range of how many days it took to top. Another observation I made is that streaks were longer than I thought they would be. I assumed that the market appeared to have a few bull days followed by a few bear days but this is only because my bias of checking the market more than once a day, and at different times. For example, if a market is bearish for two days in a row, it may start to be bullish on the first half of the 3rd day, but it goes down during the afternoon and night.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by dfsemeraro