Streaming Wars | Who’s Winning, Losing, and Sharing Passwords ?Netflix Is Laughing, Cable Is Crying, and Amazon Is Sneaking Up
Highlights for Today
- Trends and Market Share
- Disney: Streaming Profits on the Rise
- Comcast: Cable Restructuring Underway
- Warner Bros : Box Office Challenges
- Paramount: Streaming Growth Amidst Challenges
In the Battle for Loyalty, One Fact Stands Out: Netflix vs the Rest
1. Trends and Market Share
Platforms like YouTube Premium, Amazon Prime, and Apple TV+ do not report quarterly numbers. Additionally, Disney+ Hotstar is excluded due to its planned merger with Reliance in 2025.
Streaming continues to replace traditional linear TV, benefiting all players. Nielsen reports streaming comprised 41% of US TV time in September 2024, a 3.5-point increase year-over-year, primarily at Cable’s expense.
Key Trends to Watch
-Password-Sharing Crackdown: Following Netflix’s success, Disney introduced paid sharing in the US in late September, with effects expected to emerge in Q4. Max is also gearing up for this initiative.
-Amazon Prime’s Growing Presence:CEO Andy Jassy revealed that Prime Video attracts over 200 million global viewers monthly. Combining exclusive content, live sports, and e-commerce integration, Amazon’s ecosystem presents a credible challenge to Netflix.
-YouTube’s Dominance in Living Rooms: YouTube accounts for over 25% of US streaming TV time (excluding YouTube TV) and continues to grow. Alphabet disclosed that YouTube’s ads and subscriptions brought in $50 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, surpassing Netflix’s $38 billion.
-Subscriber Trends: Tentpole events, like the Olympics for Peacock or hit series like House of the Dragon for Max, drove sign-ups. However, retention remains a challenge for all but Netflix.
2. Disney: Streaming Profits Rise
Disney’s fiscal year ends in September, with Q3 FY24 covering the June quarter.
-Streaming Profits:Disney’s direct2consumer (DTC) segment, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, posted its second consecutive profitable quarter, generating $321 million in operating income. Core Disney+ subscribers rose by 4.4 million, reaching 123 million, driven by ad-supported tiers.
-Box Office Wins: Hits like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine powered $316 million in studio profits. Disney became the first studio to surpass $4 billion in global box office revenue in 2024.
- Challenges in Parks: Parks and Experiences revenue dropped 6% to $1.7 billion, impacted by hurricanes, rising costs, and competition from the Paris Olympics. Domestic attendance held steady, while international parks struggled.
- Linear TV Decline: Revenue fell 6%, with profits plunging 38% to $498 million as cord-cutting and reduced ad sales weighed heavily. Disney plans to integrate streaming and linear TV rather than divest assets.
- Optimistic Outlook: Disney expects earnings growth in FY25 (high single digits) and double digits in FY26 and FY27. Blockbusters like Moana2 and Mufasa:The Lion King are anticipated to maintain momentum.
Takeaway: Disney’s Q4 highlighted strides in its streaming turnaround, buoyed by box office wins. However, the decline in linear TV underscores the challenges of transitioning in a shifting media landscape. Strong content and a focus on profitability position Disney for success under Bob Iger’s leadership.
3.Comcast: Cable Restructuring
-Olympics Drive Growth:The Paris Olympics boosted NBCUniversal’s revenue by 37%, generating $1.2 billion in advertising and adding 3 million Peacock subscribers, which now total 36 million.
-Streaming Expansion: Peacock’s revenue rose 82% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, with losses narrowing to $436 million from $565 million last year.
-Cable Struggles: Cord-cutting led to a loss of 365,000 cable TV subscribers, with video segment revenue down 6.2%. Comcast is exploring a spinoff of cable networks like Bravo and CNBC to prioritize growth areas.
-Theme Parks Slow: Theme park revenue dipped 5% to $2.3 billion as domestic attendance normalized post-COVID.
-Broadband Trends:Despite losing 87,000 broadband customers, revenue increased 3%, with higher average revenue per user.
Takeaway:Comcast’s Q3 reflected both opportunities and challenges. While the Olympics showcased its media strength, declines in cable TV and theme parks persist. Streamlining through a cable spinoff could sharpen its focus, but sustaining growth in Peacock and broadband remains critical.
4.Warner Bruh : Box Office Challenges
-Streaming Growth:Max gained 7.2 million subscribers, reaching 110.5 million globally, supported by international expansion and hits like *House of the Dragon*. Streaming revenue rose 9%, marking Warner’s first profit since 2022.
-Box Office Struggles:Studio revenue declined 17%, with theatrical revenue falling 40% due to a weaker film slate (*Beetlejuice Beetlejuice* and *Twisters* compared to last year’s *Barbie*). Video game revenue dropped 31%.
-Mixed Network Results:Network revenue grew 3% from the Olympics and *Shark Week*, but advertising revenue fell 13%. The $9.1 billion NBA impairment from Q2 continues to loom.
-Debt and Cash Flow Issues:** Free cash flow dropped 69% to $632 million, with $41 billion in debt. Warner renewed its Charter Communications deal to bolster stability.
-CEO’s Confidence:David Zaslav emphasized Max’s momentum, projecting $1 billion in streaming profits by 2025 and hinting at password-sharing monetization.
Takeaway:Warner’s Q3 highlighted streaming success but underscored its dependence on Max as traditional film and TV segments falter. Balancing debt, declining cash flow, and expanding streaming profitability will be key to its stability.
5.Paramount: Streaming Growth
-Streaming Success:Paramount+ gained 3.5 million subscribers, reaching 72 million, thanks to sports like the NFL and UEFA and shows like *Tulsa King*. The streaming unit achieved a $49 million operating income, its second consecutive profitable quarter.
-TV and Film Challenges:TV revenue fell 6% due to lower ad sales and declining cable subscribers. The film division saw revenue plummet 34%, with theatrical revenue dropping 71%.
-Merger Progress:Paramount’s merger with Skydance Media is on track for early 2025, following the exploration of 12 potential bidders.
-Cost-Cutting:Paramount has completed 90% of its $500 million cost reduction initiative, resulting in layoffs and asset write-downs.
-Strategic Shift:Paramount is seeking a streaming joint-venture partner to better compete with Netflix and Disney while managing cable TV’s decline.
Takeaway: Paramount’s streaming gains are encouraging, but traditional TV and film struggles persist. The Skydance merger offers a potential transformation, though stabilizing legacy businesses remains a significant hurdle.
Streaming
NETFLIX Earnings is setting it up for $840.Netflix (NFLX) is already one of the big winners of the earnings season as it announced Q3 results that exceeded expectations and saw the price up by more than +11.00% on Friday. Even technically that is a big win as the rebound came from a Thursday test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the first in 2 months (since August 14).
The stock has been trading within a Channel Up for a whole year (since the October 18 2023 Low) and now has the perfect fundamental excuse to aim higher. The 1D RSI shows a similar pattern so all previous bottoms with the Channel Up (Aug 05 2024, April 22 2024, January 17 2024, October 18 2023) so either a 3.0 Fibonacci extension or a +25% rise is expected.
This time both happen to be just over $840.00, so we can claim that this is a reasonable target to aim for during this Bullish Leg.
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Bullish IQ , online video streaming in chinaIQ has been drowned and punished for a light q2 june earning report.
seasonally/historically q2 has been the lightest quarter for past 3 years.
the best quarters are toward the winter holidays.
Current valuation is very attractive low PE, low price to sales.
Balance sheet has some debt, so its not excessively cheap in the balance sheet. its all about the earnings growth potential.
This year forward earnings is expected to be .24 cents, which is fantastic for a once 2.00 stock recently. 5 year potential eps is over 1.00, so for me this is a keep for long time.
Hard to say what a growing online streamer could be worth when bullishness kicks in and future growth starts to be anticipated. 20 pe? 30 pe? one can never predict this. All we control is buying value when we get a lot of weight for money paid.
RISKs- continued deflation in china, more competition. Currency devaluation and geopolitics still a major cloud. Yuan is rising now, but if real estate remains a burden, currency devaluation and increased stimulus might hurt the currency and total net returns to foreign investors.
Not advice for you, but I like the stock for me. Stands out on my ranking sheets.
DIS - Disney: this is a buy in my opinion. Right now, right hereTrading at 30% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 21% per year
Earnings grew by 108% over the past year
Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 29%
Disney Announces Massive Theme Parks, Cruise Expansion at D23
Notably, the company has committed to invest a cool $60 billion in its parks over the next decade as it tries to maintain its lead over competitors.
Wall Street analysts are quite bullish on Disney stock, despite its dismal price action. The stock has a consensus rating of “Strong Buy,” while its mean target price of $119.43 is almost 39% higher than yesterday’s closing prices. The stock even trades below its Street-low target price of $100, while the Street-high target price of $140 represents an upside potential of about 63%.
Disney (DIS): Waiting for the Right MoveIt's been a while since we last checked on Disney. We hit our target for Wave A, getting close to $126. Now, we are working on Wave B, which we think will finish between $96 and $89. This range matches the 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting a Zig-Zag correction.
Current Situation:
Regarding the future outlook, we are looking at $156 to $176 for the next upward move, matching the 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels for the larger Wave B.
Strategy:
Our plan is to be patient. We are not trading or taking any positions right now. The correction might extend and could bring the price below $77 if Wave (A) isn’t fully done. It’s important to wait for clear signs of stability and the end of the correction before making any moves.
Conclusion:
Patience is very important for Disney right now. We are watching the $96 to $89 range to see if Wave B completes. If this correction phase ends well, we might see a move towards $156 to $176. However, we need to stay cautious and wait for a clear signal before taking any action.
NETFLIX Bullish break-out eyeing $725.00Netflix (NFLX) has established trading above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), turning it into a Support following the rebound since May 01. With the long-term pattern since June 14 2022 being a Channel Up, similar bullish break-outs above the 1D MA50 (blue circles) have been the start of Bullish Legs.
Even the 1D RSI has been very consistent at identifying bottoms. The last two Bullish Legs topped after the price hit the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we remain bullish on NFLX, targeting $725.0 (the 1.786 Fibonacci).
Flashback to our previous idea:
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ROKU, PRICE TARGETS, TIME TO GO LONG?Maybe.
Chart has most of the info marked so there isn't much to say.
Sharp drop if the support trend breaks down.
Rejection trend is trading up.
Seems like it might be time to get some bigger movement on this stock.
Price can go up on a breakout pretty high, but also, careful above around 120.
Good luck!!
DIS moves higher in realtive strength LONGDisney had an excellent earnings report last week. Today it is moving off its support of the
moving average cloud on the chart and going higher on a day when the general market is
sideways at best. A table shows its strength as compared with other commonly traded stocks.
I will take a long trade here and perhaps hold it until the next earnings.
NETFLIX Correction starting. How low can it go?Netflix (NFLX) has gone a long way since our November 28 2023 buy signal (see chart below) that reached our $580 Target, giving more than +20% return:
As the price has been consolidating for practically 2 weeks, it is time to update our outlook for medium as well as long-term investors. The long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern that started on the July 13 2022 Low, is intact and the stock continues to respect its Support and Resistance levels.
The current consolidation is coming off an overbought 1D RSI peak at 83.00, which has since corrected, while the price was consolidating, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. We have previously seen the same kind of overbought RSI Bearish Divergence on the July 19 2023 and February 03 2023 peaks, both Higher Highs on the Bullish Megaphone.
As a result, we expect a correction of around 4 weeks and being on a consolidation suggests that it is still early to enter. The 1st Support level is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since the October 27 2023 bounce, but we are aiming for the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as it has been touched during both 2023 correction waves. Our Target is at $485, but we will book the profit earlier if the 1D RSI hits the 30.00 oversold limit first.
The Sine Waves can be used as an extra decision making indicator here. As you can see they fairly match the Peaks and Lows of the stock price, so if the price approaches the Sine Bottom March 20 and hasn't rebounded yet, we will close the shorts and buy long-term regardless.
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SIRI is pulled back for a LONG entryOn 1 120 minute chart, SIRI is now well positioned having tested the support of
two sets of VWAP bands anchored back two earnings periods and so 3 months apart.
The mean VWAPs are confluent and so form strong support. I expect the price to
return to the early December high and test that level. In the past day a buying volume
aberrant spike was printed. The MACD lines have been crisscrossing under the histogram
signaling support of the cons9olidation of price with a series of Doji candles before the
final engulfing green dandle. Of interest, the next expiration of the options is February 16th.
On that date the dominant option strikes are %5.00 , %5.50 and $6.00
$5.00 is the present level for the strong support of the confluent mean VWAPs aforementioned
It is in this range that I will join the options activity for the time being. I will take a few calls
at each strike level as they are presently priced at $ 12- $ 32 per contract. I will also
take 10-20 shares of stock in a short position to provide a little risk-off hedging.
Weekly Chart Signal Trade idea- Multi-time frame AUDUSD Jan 04th 2024
1. The weekly swing is bearish on the weekly time frame. (See green 1 for strong market structure)
A. I expect price to move through my risk management strategy to move from 1 to the 2 on the weekly timeframe
2. Price is currently in the equilibrium between the weekly high strong (see green 3 & 4 for reference)
Price is more likely to move from strong market structure to weaker structure. This is how I based my phases of the market.
3. Price is currently in C.4 supply zone and is trending bullish for the Change of Trend (CHoCH)
4. Trade Ideas (Investor trade plan)
A. I could short trade with a risk entry at the short trade at Black 5
B. I Could also go to a lower time frame and wait for a confirmation entry for a higher probability trade
SPOTIFY Buy opportunity on the 4H MA50.Spotify (SPOT) opened considerably higher yesterday but almost closed the 1D candle flat as it couldn't diverge more from the general bearish market sentiment. Clearly this opening jump indicates the stock bias to continue the bullish leg of the Channel Up that started on October 23, but a small pull-back along the majority of the market is probable, which can serve as a more comfortable buy entry for a rally to the end of the year.
Based on the 1D CCI, we may be in a similar situation as February's temporary top, which pulled back and only found support on the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). As a result we are looking for a new buy on the 4H MA50 in order to target the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 208.00.
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NETFLIX Expect this rally to be extended.Almost a month ago (October 31) we gave a strong buy signal (chart below) on Netflix (NFLX) with the price reacting immediately having entered a non-stop rise:
Due to the sheer aggression of the current bullish leg of the Megaphone as compared to its previous ones though, we have to downgrade our medium-term target to $580, which will make a perfect +69.30% rise from the bottom as the July 18 High. Their RSI patterns are quite similar, though obvious that the current is more aggressive, hence will correct equally aggressively at some point, probably early-mid January 2024.
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#STORJ/USDT 12h (ByBit) Small rising wedge near breakdownStorj is about to print an evening star, could lead to a leg down to 200MA support.
⚡️⚡️ #STORJ/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (3.8X)
Amount: 5.0%
Current Price:
0.4425
Entry Targets:
1) 0.4455
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 0.3515
Stop Targets:
1) 0.4925
Published By: @Zblaba
$STORJ BYBIT:STORJUSDT.P #Storage storj.io
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +80.2%
Possible Loss= -40.1%
Estimated Gaintime= 1-2 weeks
NETFLIX Can it realistically reach $600 in this environment?Netflix (NFLX) has established itself above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the aggressive price jump of October 19 on its bullish earnings. Still, the price is failing to break above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the blue Channel Down and technically the longer it fails to do so, the higher the chances become of a rejection. Until that happens, we can see that during similar 1D MA50 consolidations after price jumps in the recent past, Netflix rallied more. Now it has the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) as its long-term Support, hence a potential new rally can be even stronger.
The previous 3 medium-term rallies have hit (or marginally missed) the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so that is our target in case the price breaks above the top of the Channel Down. $600 is technically fair as it is on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Bullish Megaphone. Time-wise, this target is achievable by January 2024 as this is what the Sine Waves suggest. As you can see all 3 previous Higher Highs have been within the peak spectrum of the Sine Wave.
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COMCAST shares continues to outperform Netflix and DisneyThe positive performance of Comcast's shares coincided with a buoyant stock market, as the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 4,358.24 and 33,739.30 respectively on Tuesday.
Despite trading volume for Comcast being reported at 15.4 million, below its 50-day average of 17.2 million, the company's stock outperformed several key competitors in the sector. Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), for instance, saw its shares drop by 3.27% to $373.32 on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Charter Communications Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CHTR) stock rose by 0.52% to $444.72, matching Comcast's positive trajectory. However, Comcast slightly surpassed Walt Disney Co.'s (NYSE:NYSE:DIS) performance, which saw a lesser increase of 0.34% to close at $84.99.
The continued rise in Comcast's shares suggests that investors are responding positively to the company's recent performance and prospects, despite trading volumes being below average over the past week.
NETFLIX Is the streaming Giant a buy again?Netflix (NFLX) had a great run since our March 23 long (see chart below) and gave us more than +51% return in 4 months:
The long-term pattern remains a Bullish Megaphone and right now the price sits on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) as well as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been unbroken since November 10 2022. On top of that, the 1D RSI is oversold on the 30.00 Support. Last time it was this low (March 10), the Megaphone priced a Higher Low bottom. As you realize, along with the 0.382 Fibonacci, we currently sit on a quadruple level Support Cluster.
Based on the 93 candle (roughly 135 days) rule within this Megaphone, which suggests that at the end of the 93 candle count, NFLX will either be near a High or a Low, we still have around 2 months to call a bottom. As a result, if the 1D MA200 and Megaphone break, we can see a slow descend along the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and then pick up a reversal.
Either way, the once mighty streaming giant is entering a new long-term Buy Zone. Our target is the 0.786 Fibonacci extension ($587.50) even though we wil most likely see the Megaphone peak higher by Q2 2024.
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Disney (DIS) -> Major Reversal AheadMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Disney.
At the moment Disney stock is retesting a major previous monthly support level from which we already rejected multiple times towards the upside in the past.
Considering that market structure on the lower timeframes is still bearish though I am just waiting for more bullish price action before I think we will see a major bullish impulse.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
Long Disney: The Mouse Takes it To The HouseNever Bet against American Families and Culture
The Walt Disney Company, commonly known as Disney, is an American multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate that is headquartered at the Walt Disney Studios complex in Burbank, California
Scalping Looking for Trades Live in Funded AccountLooking for trade opportunities in the futures market educational content. For live traders
NFLX - HEAD AND SHOULDERS NETFLIX - We can observe a typical example of head and shoulders pattern formation that is looking to conclude right around earnings on the 18th of this month. The pattern suggests that if we see a drop to $280-$290, we can seek a $70-$90 raise in the upcoming week after the earning report relies on the 18th of this month. NETFLIX missed the last earnings with a significant number so it is likely to correct that in the upcoming one.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Market Bias & Top Stock Watches - 3/29/2023 - Bull GrinderBias: Big gap up into resistance so expect a pullback early on but ultimately expecting a bullish move higher
Top Watches: Long - CARR, C, ENVX, MU, INTC. Short - STEM
Tune in to my stream at 9:25 EST for my full list of top stock watches and to watch me trade them Live!
Follow @JLaing for a timely morning bias of the market like this, top stock watches, and live day trading every morning!
$LPT/USDT 1D (#Bybit) Descending trendline breakout & pullbackLivePeer Token is pulling back to 200MA after breaking the downtrend, a bounce towards Fib 0.786 would make sense.
⚡️⚡️ #LPT/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (1.8X)
Amount: 6.3%
Current Price:
8.515
Entry Targets:
1) 8.472
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 10.694
Stop Targets:
1) 6.987
Published By: @Zblaba
Risk/Reward= 1:1.5
Expected Profit= +47.2%
Possible Loss= -31.6%
Estimated Gaintime= 1.5 months
$LPT #LPTUSDT #LivePeer #Web3 #DeFi
