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Cable relinquish the 1.3700 handle for now...The writing was on the wall for the Pound after early UK data disappointment in the form of retail sales and public sector finances, but the so called flash PMIs were anything but, and have seen Cable relinquish the 1.3700 handle, while Eur/Gbp has rebounded to 0.8900+ from its pre-ECB low around 0.8830. Another downturn in broad risk sentiment, softer crude and commodity prices have combined with a retreat in several currency counterparts to save the Buck from a further collapse, while perma bulls may also derive more encouragement from the fact that the DXY fended off the latest attempt to flush out underlying and psychological bids at 90.000, albeit even more narrowly (at 90.039 vs 90.043 yesterday). Indeed, the index and Greenback overall remain depressed, with rebounds running into offers at increasingly lower levels and readily, ie 90.286 so far compared to 90.454 on Thursday and 90.699 the day before. Ahead, US Markit preliminary PMIs and existing home sales are scheduled and could provide impetus, but perhaps on the good news is bad and vice-versa mantra for the downbeat Dollar.
Short
by FTUKcom
4
The Dollar remains on track to record net and widespread gains..The Dollar remains on track to record net and widespread gains, but it’s been far from one-way traffic or straight forward as the DXY has whip-sawed within a 90.762-89.922 range through mostly disappointing US data, mainly dovish Fed rhetoric and President-elect Biden’s fiscal stimulus plan that was pretty much as expected. Meanwhile, broad risk sentiment has turned more selective in terms of stock indices and sectors as reflation positioning continues before the dawn of a Democratic Congress, and Treasury yields have also reflected the prospect of increased issuance to fund a bigger budget deficit via deeper bear-steepening until a retracement after auctions and a concerted effort from the Fed, including chair Powell to avert a taper tantrum. On the COVID front, the spread in the US and elsewhere is still accelerating to record levels of infections and fatalities in some domains, but markets (and society in general) are looking beyond the resurgence towards light at the end of the tunnel as authorities attempt to catch up by speeding up the pace of vaccinations. However, Friday’s Greenback appreciation has been forged from renewed safe-haven demand as equities retreat further from early 2021 and/or all time highs on a mixture of doubts about the aforementioned relief bill getting approval in its current guise and whether vaccines are effective against the new pandemic strains, not to mention reports that Pfizer may miss some drug delivery targets over the coming weeks.
TVC:DXY
by FTUKcom
4
GBP/JPY - a new addition to my watchlist...The non-Dollar G10s have largely been at the whim of their US peer, with intermittent diversions and deviations, as the POUND kicked off 2021 on a firm footing after the UK and EU managed to pull a Brexit deal out of the bag just before the New Year’s Eve transition deadline. Cable peaked just over 1.3700 and Eur/Gbp troughed around 0.8945, but it’s been a case of Sterling erosion since the festive season ended due in part to a 3rd national lockdown and growing concerns over the fallout from a new more transmissible strain of COVID-19. Similar story for the EURO after a couple of efforts to breach 1.2350, as tighter virus restrictions offset any good news in the form of data, and Eur/Usd has subsequently lost momentum through the 10 DMA to rigorously test the resolve of bids into 1.2200 and the 21 DMA. Elsewhere, the YEN and FRANC have fallen foul to the aforementioned avid risk appetite, with the former also conforming to UST-JGB yield differentials as Usd/Jpy rebounded sharply from 102.60 to almost 104.10 vs Usd/Chf’s 0.8758-0.8884 extremes. Gbp/Jpy currently is showing the highest probability of a volatile move inline with the multi-month highs being breached. 130 pips is on the books.
Long
by FTUKcom
4
GBP leads G-10 as Bailey highlights adverse effects of rates..The major beneficiary of the waning Buck as Cable retests 1.3600 from almost the big figure below at one stage, but the Pound has also rebounded in relation to the Euro from circa 0.9000 to 0.8950+ at best in wake of remarks from BoE Governor Bailey highlighting plenty of ‘issues’ on the controversial subject of NIRP, adding that it is too soon to determine whether the economy needs more stimulus. For the record, MPC member Broadbent steered clear of negative rates in a speech on the coronavirus and consumption. The simple long scenario would be waiting for this pair to squeeze up beyond 1.3600 on the hour and the hour descending trendline.
Long
by FTUKcom
2
The Pound continues to lose its Brexit boost as lockdown...The Pound continues to lose its Brexit boost as lockdown bites and the battle against rising cases/deaths due to the new 'virus variant' mounts awaiting more widespread vaccinations, with Cable striving to maintain sight of 1.3550 and Eur/Gbp pivoting 0.9050. Pound strength is prevailing month on month and I have marked in the zone region in which I am looking for a rebound to consider buying the pair again just like before Christmas.
Long
by FTUKcom
10
GBP posts steady gains on Brexit hopes. BoE expected unchanged..Over 160 pips up on this trade. Prior charts: I just wanted to get another update out with todays analysis and fundamentals for everyone! 1.3650 soon come... The Pound looks primed to take on another round number just shy of 1.3650 and is eyeing 0.9000 again in Eur/Gbp cross terms as chief EU Brexit negotiator Barnier reports more progress towards a trade accord with the UK, as talks enter the final stage, albeit with stumbling blocks still obscuring the tunnel exit. More immediately, the spotlight falls on Threadneedle Street, though the bar is set high for any further BoE policy tweaks after November’s APF action.
Long
by FTUKcom
7
INSG Inseego is setting up for the next run.. paying attention?Quick analysis on INSG Inseego the hot tech company deploying 5G hotspots with major telcos like Verizon. Yes the stock has had a great run, but it's clearly got momentum and the fundamentals are strong. We are tracking an upward channel with a downward-facing wedge if you zoom in close. If the lines I drew are generally in the right spots, then we're seeing a breakout to the upside slowly creep and before anyone realizes this stock is likely to retest it's all-time highs again. I'm bullish on 5G, so I love names like Inseego which are actually deploying hardware in the market and making headlines around strong performance. What's your thought? Is my 5G bull bias blinding me or is the chart showing us what I'm seeing?
NASDAQ:INSGLong
by Shadowfigure
Some ‘key’ UK releases and a barrage of BoE...Some ‘key’ UK releases and a barrage of BoE rhetoric essentially sticking to the not now NIRP script, but the Pound has been mainly hostage to Brexit impulses yet again. Cable has veered from 1.3300+ to circa 1.3165 and Eur/Gbp within pips of 0.9000 vs 0.8915 as a result on heightened hopes of a breakthrough before time runs out to get trade deal legislation drawn up, translated and ratified based in part on reports that France has conceded that its fishing rights will be limited post-transition alongside compromise from Britain on other issues. The media has also mentioned a barebones agreement by Monday that is touted as the last realistic chance to get all the formalities done by December 31, but the more intense phase of negotiations has been disrupted by a member of the Brussels’ team contracting coronavirus and the discussions now taking place remotely. In short, the clock is ticking and an EU envoy says the 3 crucial bones of contention are still unresolved (fisheries, state aid and the level playing field), so the talks will continue night and day, according to European Commission President von der Leyen, with PM Johnson insisting that UK interests and sovereignty must be secured in any pact or an Australian FTA (hard if not quite no deal) is the alternative.
Long
by FTUKcom
2
EUR/USD Trading Around Stimulus/BrexitOANDA:EURUSD is near completion of it's Elliot's Wave pattern following a tough week for the Dollar. Today's action is mostly accredited to strength of AMEX:SLV and TVC:GOLD . I believe there is a correction or some consolidation due early next week with the amount of economic announcements on the US and European sides, and as Brexit new's continues to develop with apparent "rounding issues" occurring. GOLD and SLV will likely flatten out due to the upcoming debate. Also, with US Stimulus likely becoming a hot topic at the debate with rumors still floating some type of relief. In conclusion, Europe and Britains uncertain future will likely bring weakness to the Euro early in the week, and I predict the dollar to stay flat leading up to the debate and bounce with more strength in GOLD and SLV or a Stimulus package. EUR/USD could easily reach 1.915 next week as these events play out or retrace to resistance turned support from July.
by crawfordpaul