NZD/USD: Minimum 100 pip NZD bounce before USD strength resumesNZD/USD: This pair should offer a nice each way trade this week coming...looking for a minimum 100 pip bounce for
NZD which may extend to 180 pips at limit late Monday/early Tuesday before shorting NZD again as per the comment.
(See also DXY comment for further confirmation and help on timing entry/exit points across most USD pairs. )
Strength
Dollar StrengthAs we were looking for decline on the DXY , bulls took over control. Here we go with my weekly analysis on the U.S. Dollar Index;
A (orange)( closed ) : Price clearly bounced on our bullish trendline. Blue area as been broken in the beginning of the week, my bearish bias was completely canceled. No break and no resistance, this direction bias is now closed.
A (blue) : Previously our plan C, I see the DXY showing some significant strength signs;
Blue area as been broken which was our resistance. Next area to watch for a break through is the yellow one.
Price bounced on the bullish trendline.
A nice reverse head and shoulder is forming, looking for a break of the neckline.
Price found support right at the retest level after the trend line breakout, red area.
Support found on both 50(aqua) and 200(gray) exponential moving averages after a bullish crossover.
A nice regular bullish divergence also indicates a nice trend reversal, highlighted by the purple arrows on data and indicator window.
Target is 96.00, optimal trade entry area for shorting.
B (red) : Fake bullish move to the yellow area and by dropping back resulting as a price ranging.
Only price action can determine those bias, even none of them could occur.
Bias as changed for now but still bearish overall, I am currently looking for bullish move on this index, driving all USD based pairs.
Dollar strengh = USDXXX UP / XXXUSD DOWN
Dollar weak = XXXUSD UP / USDXXX DOWN
BTCUSD Higher Highs & Higher LowsBITFINEX:BTCUSD
BTC since the last bottom of the bear run that saw prices down to $2900, we've witnessed several rallies continuing along a macro positive trend. In the days since 15th September last month we can see a trend of higher highs and higher lows with a converging upper/lower boundary.
There has also been a trend of decreasing volume throughout the past few weeks with a couple of upticks signalling interest followed by a downturn in volume. These factors coupled together collectively represent a rising wedge and this is known as a generally bearish trend that signals weakening bullish pressure as each rally point becomes smaller.
At the time of writing this, our latest rally hit a level of $4960+ to revisit a resistance zone witnessed at the end of the Month of August. A subsequent breakdown in price could see the price drop back toward $4200 levels before a clean break and strong show of support above the $5000 mark. A shorting opportunity may present itself in that situation.
That being said, there still seems to be significant strength in the market at the moment. On a macro level, the sentiment weighs more in favor of bullish exhaustion in play however the current market trend from a micro time-frame perspective is holding above the 50 MA which as many of you know and trade upon is representative of a trending bullish market.
RSI is currently also displaying some sideways action with upward trend signals gathered from the MACD.
Completion of bullish exhaustion will be evident in the MACD & RSI but the current sentiment displays some strength. In the event of a breakdown, we can rely on the fibonacci retracement level of 0.786.
It should be noted that even with my sentiment being that of an impending breakdown before a clean break past the $5000 level these predictions are on a macro scale so a show of support above that level for a few days will confirm the breakout. The immediate trend is showing good support and will remain bullish until proven otherwise. Remember, the trend is your friend.
If you are uncertain about opening a new position at the moment, whether long or short pay attention to and search for confirmation throughout a number of indicators before you make your decision.
In summary:
BTC is finding good support in the long term especially after the recent price corrections couldn't be more positive.
A possible breakdown would most likely not make it past the 0.786 retracement level of $4200 & a breakout above $5000 would require a good show of support before any more long positions should be considered. On the macro level, the market is pushing upward and a break out of the rising wedge will see quick correction before price rallies back up above $5000.
Investing and/or trading in digital assets like BTC is highly speculative and risks are involved due to a high market volatility difficulty level that doesn't favor new traders and new investors. The analysis expressed here is purely for informational purposes only and should not in any way be considered to be investment and/or trading advice.
DGBBTC Price Sentiment & ReversalPOLONIEX:DGBBTC
After a +1000% price increase in June, DGB has been going through a long-term correction phase with key support holding significantly at 250 Satoshis. This presents a potential entry position for a long play whether short or long term.
BITTREX:DGBBTC
RSI also shows us an interesting pattern replaying. Strength responds in kind after a weak cycle. Consolidation from the month of August shows great uncertainty but this also signals a strong potential uptrend development incoming based on DGB history. A short term play with a buy order at 260 Satoshis and a T.P of about 600 & 800 Satoshis would be reasonable. Potential for DGB to break below its key support level is existent however the trend is our friend and in this case DGB price history tells us that the incoming bottom of 250 Satoshis to complete 100% retracement from the month of June before price reversal is the most potential play.
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Stability And Trigger.ETHUSD Update: Stability forming now that two higher lows are in place at the 267 and 276 levels. This allows for a clear definition of risk and a scenario that can lead to a new long position.
At the 267 level there is a bounce that retraces back to 276. This formation is a broad higher low which indicates strength returning to this market. The bearish momentum has failed to push new lows. Plus there is a smaller higher low at the 287 level which signals further stability because higher lows often lead to? Higher highs. Two formations like these within the 296 support level which I have been writing about for a few reports now, are the signs of stability I have been patiently waiting for.
If you observe the ETHBTC market which has been a great source for additional clues, it also has a clear higher low formation in place which adds to the stability argument even more.
What is most important about these structures besides where they appearing is that fact that the market has offered clear reference points to define risk from: The 267, 276 and 287 lows. With this information I can determine if a long swing trade is worth taking. The next question is where is the entry and the target?
A break above 310 is a new long signal because that indicates bullish momentum returning. A long position at 310 with a stop in the mid 280s and a target in the mid 340s offers just over 1:1 reward/risk (and that is being extremely conservative). If there is any positive catalyst along the way, that can push prices further, but for now I am going to use the 350 area as the initial target. The beauty of this kind of trigger is if price never breaks 310, then that means bullish momentum is still limited and there is no trade and no risk taken.
IF instead price decides to break below the key support levels relative to these higher low structures, like 287 or 276, then that would signal bearish momentum is still present and I would wait and see where the market stabilizes again before any further evaluation. Also a break below the 267 low will negate the possibilities of the present stability completely, and open the door to the 230 support zone. This is why it is very important not to take a position too early and wait for a trigger. (Unless you enjoy pain).
Another point I want to make is this: my previous reports have been bearish, and now this one is much more bullish. I do not base my observations on feelings, or my opinion, or what anyone says or writes. I base my outlook on what clues the MARKET provides and I am flexible enough to recognize new information while not getting stuck on ANY opinions. The market doesn't care what I think. So I don't, I "listen" instead.
In summary, this is the kind of price action that my plan forces me to WAIT for before taking a new position after a sell off. It is very challenging because it requires a ton of patience to wait for (it has been a number of days). The only way to achieve this kind of patience is with a well defined plan, and not getting sucked in by the hype, the price noise and your own impulses, fears, and bias. If the context of these market conditions were more bullish, (like they used to be) then the entry criteria would be less restrictive so this is why context is so important for the analytical elements that I employ.
Comments and questions welcome.
Which way ETHUSD will choice?ETH is going to choice its way between #1, #2, #3 and #4 in its up trend. 388$ is working as strong strength point. In my opinion it will choice #3. Because indicators already become balloon they must become normal levels before healthy go up. No need open position until see test of support lines or before broken 388$ strength.
Lisk Showing A Completed Correction; More Upside In ViewLisk made a three wave pullback into blue wave (4) correction and later found some support at the region of the former wave four at 0.00079674 level. We know former corrections can usually act as turning points and in our case as a support. That said current rally can now be start of a new impulsive leg higher, with price currently trading at the beginning of sub-wave 3. That said more gains can follow on the cryptocurrency.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
$V continuation pattern breakouthigher time is in strong uptrend and showing strength
intermediate time frame also in uptrend and rising moving averages with the shorter time moving average slightly flattening showing consolidation with price trading around it
price is seen here forming a resistance at the 96.16-96.17 area with the three price rejection candles
forming a ascending triangle possibly looking for more retests of the resistance and higher lows to show buyers conviction
this is mostly a monitoring situation not a play yet
on the lower time frame- it is showing a bullish rectangle pattern- longer it stays in the range more energy will be built for the possible breakout move
just have to watch what price does in the upcoming couple days
measured move is a .33 move if broken out of resistance which will bring price to 96.50 area and extension level .618 at the 97.1x area
AUDJPY - Easy Money LongThis trade has taken forever to develop. The Hekin Ashi Candles suggest a completed retracement pattern, while the price action has finished a breakthrough and retest of an important price level. These factors, combined with the appropriate RSI - primed for a breakout - are all positive signs. The confluence of 3 important factors, plus the overall strength of Gold and the AUD, give me reason to believe that this pair will be moving much higher very soon.
Trade Safe.
AW
AUDCAD - Easy Money ShortThis trade right here is a textbook short. The price level just bounced with decent rejection off of a long term, important price level, and with the weak attempt strength, its doubtful that this trade will be going higher than lower in the next week. I'm shorting to .98104, although I may get out sooner if I sense price turning around quicker than expected.
AUDNZD - PUT THIS ON YOUR WATCHLIST RIGHT NOWThis trade may be turning up faster than anticipated. My original prediction stated that it would probably fall and retest its trend line break, but it seems that this pair may just be headed upward without it. Watch this one! If I see a candle pattern I like I will go long and update this post.
EURAUD - EASY MONEYHey guys! So this is a quick counter trend trade off of the support up into the trendline. The candles are encouraging, and if the current candle finishes somewhat it looks like now, then I will be going long. I will update with Entry Levels!
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EURAUD - Easy BounceIf this candle finishes with a strong bullish body, then I will be climbing in to ride a short bounce up. It looks slightly oversold, and the possibility of a bounce is high IMO. I will be updating with entry if I end up going long.
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AUDNZD - WATCH THIS Potential BreakoutI expect this trade to break down, and then back up. The pair has just bounced off of a resistance, as well as passing through a months-long trend line with conviction. Depending on what happens, I will most likely be buying this once it moves closer to testing its new supports.
Bitcoin - Super Breakout - Next Target $880 USD - Measure RuleThe time has finally come! I have been waiting for a near vertically rally, and likely so have you!
Our patience has been rewarded with a strong breakout! Using the measure rule I give a new PT of $880 USD...
Momentum has been huge, since June it is the third strongest, the second being in August....
Good luck and soon we will be in the four digit range --- I don't know about you but I won't be looking back anytime soon!
Pink verticals are the same length, duh!
GBP/USD: SHORT TERM ANALYSISWe are currently in a bearish channel as you can see the trend had given off corrective wave patterns to perform downwards movement out of the waves previous structure, whereas the trend is now retracing possibly towards recurring previous structure levels. I suspect the trend to create another lower low in order to test below structure levels and to maintain the channels strength.
How to Infer Currency Strength Without ANY IndicatorsToday I received a question regarding what indicators or websites to use to infer and compare the strength between related currencies. I responded with a long winded explanation as to why it is not necessary to use indicators or websites to infer such information because it can be realized solely through price action. If we look at the daily range today on GBPUSD, EURUSD, and EURGBP which resulted from the huge miss on the NFP numbers, we can gauge the strength between the EUR and the GBP versus the dollar as well as the EUR vs the GBP.
In looking at the daily ranges of these pairs we will first notice that they all had a strong move to the upside. This of course being due to the weakness and downside movement on the dollar ultimately resulting form the miss on the NFP number. Therefore right off the bat we can infer that foreign leading currency pairs should be strong against the dollar today and we can expect to see pairs like the GBPUSD and EURUSD moving to the upside. That is exactly what we see here... price moved as expected.
Now... what if you want to compare the relative strength of the GBP vs the EUR as it relates to the dollar weakness. Well then we will need to bring the cross pair EURGBP into the picture. The EURGBP cross pair will tell you how strong the EUR is vs the GBP. We see that the daily range of the EURGBP cross pair is roughly 90 pips and as of right now this pair has held that range indicating the EUR strength that we see clearly on the EURUSD. The daily range of the EURUSD is roughly 215 pips and it too has held this range indicating its strength. Since most of the day's trading is done for being that it is a Friday we can expect to see these prices hold through to the close of the day.
So we have concluded now that the EUR is for sure strong right now against the dollar and we are thinking since EURGBP is so strong as well that this rally in the GBPUSD might be misleading and the GBP might not be all that strong right now. By looking at the GBPUSD we can see that it's daily range was roughly 160 pips but as of right now it has already give up roughly 1/3 of that range and price is showing signs of continued downside movement. Seeing this we can conclude that the EUR is certainly stronger than the GBP right now and going into next week if we continue to see upside movement on EURUSD and EURGBP we can expect to see downside movement on GBPUSD.
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