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BTC Trading in Price Discovery Zones (Price analysis)Bitcoin in Price Discovery: Understanding and Trading in Uncharted Territory When Bitcoin or any asset reaches an all-time high (ATH), it enters a phase known as price discovery. In this phase, the market operates without historical price references, navigating uncharted territory to determine fair value. For traders and investors, this presents both an opportunity and a challenge. Employing techniques like Elliott Wave Theory and analyzing price and volume dynamics can help strategize trades during this unique phase. What is Price Discovery? Price discovery occurs when an asset ventures into price levels it has never reached before—most often at its ATH. Without prior data for resistance or support, the market relies on demand, supply, and speculation to set new price benchmarks. Understanding how price reacts in this phase requires both macro and micro analysis. Elliott Wave Theory in Price Discovery Elliott Wave Theory offers a framework for understanding market psychology and price movements. In the context of price discovery, the B Wave of an Elliott Wave formation plays a pivotal role: Identifying the B Wave and Pullback Zones The B Wave represents a pullback into a range after an impulsive move upward (Wave A). Mark the peak of the impulsive move (A) and the bottom of the pullback (B). Project this range forward in time to identify potential support zones. Support Zones in Price Discovery The previous high (Wave A peak) forms the top of the support zone. The B Wave low forms the bottom of the support zone. Once the price pulls back into this zone, it signals a potential retest of the support, offering opportunities for reentry into the trend. Drilling Down: Smaller Timeframes for Confirmation When Bitcoin retests these support zones, zoom into smaller timeframes to assess price reaction and volume behavior. Look for: Bullish Change in the State of Delivery: This includes higher highs and higher lows, increased buying volume, and bullish candlestick patterns such as engulfing candles or hammer formations. Volume Confirmation: Strong volume on upward moves and decreasing volume during pullbacks indicate sustained bullish momentum. At these support zones, the price is likely to resume its bullish trend if the market shows these signs of strength. Managing Risk in Price Discovery Zones Despite bullish setups, price discovery is volatile, and false breakouts can occur. To safeguard trades: Watch for Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) Look for large, unfilled price gaps from prior resistance areas. These gaps might signal areas where the price could retrace deeper before confirming support. Adjust Entries and Stop Losses If price breaks below the initial support zone (top of Wave A), it may retest the bottom of the B Wave for further consolidation. Set stop losses below the bottom of the B Wave to protect against unexpected reversals. Evaluate Volume-Driven Moves Weak volume during a retest could indicate insufficient demand to support the price, suggesting a deeper pullback or reversal is more likely. -------------------------- Price discovery is one of the most exciting and rewarding phases for traders who know how to approach it. By using Elliott Wave Theory, you can pinpoint key support zones, especially around the B Wave pullbacks, and then confirm your setups by analyzing price action and volume. The key here is patience and precision. Let the price come to those critical zones you’ve marked, watch how it reacts, and make your move confidently. Stay flexible, though—price discovery is unpredictable, and managing your risk is crucial if you want to make the most out of this high-potential phase in Bitcoin’s journey.
Long
by CoffeeshopCrypto
3
USDCAD We hit our First POI point. We needed to wait to observe the shift in the market structure with the bullish bias. This is confirmed by the change of the market direction after breaking the last Lower High to create a new High. On this direction bias, we notice that there are new breaks of structure that were caused by a consolidation or correction that pushed to break the previous high on that developing bullish leg, the correction was not retested, or mitigated. Right here around this zone, we are starting to see the price coming back, use your learnt entry models in the lower time frame structures to facilitate a roper entry. GOOD LUCK
Long
by DIGITALASSETSINC
All Time Highs on the Horizon!!!Price is on a Bullish Up trend In a Current Retracement. This Thesis uses several different concepts. Based off of Market structure, support & resistance, RSI Divergence, Fib lvl's, ICT Concepts, Daily: Bullish, Price is Rejecting Bullish TL and Testing structure , 61.8 prz (Daily Breaker Block forming) H4: Bullish, Morning star R Pattern at H4 lvl H1: Bearish (Wait for price action to return Bullish before entering) Thesis: Looking for price to bullish break H4 lvl to order block and retest back to daily lvl 20595 / previous structure high zone, for bullish entry. Notes: price has a overall retracement 61.8 prz Price rejecting off bullish Trend line Price rejecting 4H FVG H4 Hidden Bullish Divergence Daily Bullish Breaker Block Cons: -4H could be a Head and shoulders Pattern if price rejects and doesn't break through Daily lvl 20595 Wait for H1 Time frame and Execution time frames to line up with macro Bullish Trend before Executing! TP1: 21,150 TP2: 21,468 (ATH) TP3: 22,242 Stretch Goal (ATH)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by brianfj
7
BTC 4h-48 long forecastBTC looks very bullish on almost any timeframe. structure tells us we could have a pullback soon into unmitigated MB's which act as large SnD zones for those who dont know. MB's tend to have a high % of being mitigated before the long trend can continue. they get mitigated to cover the institutional shorts that made that last move down to liquidate any longs before the pump happened. Of course there isnt always a mitigation and this could very well continue upwards without any for of mitigation but that is something we shouldnt trade as there is very limited RR to capitalize on.
Long
by BreadFish
5
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.03 - 11.08Last Week : Sunday Globex opened right over the Mean of Value and gave a push back to VAH where we spent the night and RTH of Monday consolidating under, staying under VAH meant weakness for us going into the week and we kept seeing flushes towards VAL but every move towards it was mostly done during ON hours and would be bought back up over 840s. Finally midweek buyers saw no continuation and we got an RTH volume sell that closed under the Mean into the Key Area that needed to be taken out for continuation into VAL. Once under VAL all the buyers in Value and over were trapped for Supply and once we failed to get back into Value we saw the continuation sell back into Previous Distribution Balance with a strong break of Lower Edge to put us back into lower HTF Range of 790 - 630s. We did another look below 750 end of day Thursday which failed to continue that night and gave rotation back into to the Edge and Friday we most likely saw short covering before the Weekend after a big move that gave us a push to that balance top with a failure to hold over and finished with a close under the Edge trapping more supply. This Week : Could be another tricky week as we have election coming up Tuesday and some bigger data on Thursday so of course have to be careful trading this week but what can we sort of expect after last week ? We are back in Previous Distribution Balance of 750s - 800s and IF we do have enough covering and buying still then that could keep the price around it with moves out of it finding their way back in as one of the scenarios BUT this what is different this time around from the time that we spent in this balance before is that now we have plenty of supply and trapped buyers built up over us in the above ranges Value and Over it, plus the Supply that got built over Thursday and Friday inside it, with a push and close under the Edge this shows us acceptance in this lower range and IF we don't have the buying to keep us up we get through that 750s area then I would look for continuation pushes into the Mean and VAL area which has a bigger Cost Basis that we made a while ago with a Gap which happened during a contract roll that we could try to get into. IF we do get there then that would be an area to be careful around as we can see covering there under Value and above lower Edge but it's not something I would build a house on because size can take it out and that could bring more selling to test the lower Edge and maybe a peak under it. We don't have any news or data on Monday so we have to ask will the buyers from Thursday/Friday want to hold this product into Election Day or did they Sell Friday into the short covering and the ones who didn't will sell out once we take the stops which can bring the continuation move under VAH that we are looking for. To not get too short biased, IF we are able to hold over VAH/750s and see a push back over the Edge then we would need to see price hold over 790s to bring back stability AND once stability is back would need to see a push back into above VAL, until then need to be careful looking for higher prices from the Edge as we could either balance under the Edge/VAH area or get continuation to lower targets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn