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Structure-trade

USDJPY (4H): Rising wedge expecting break to the downside.USDJPY (4H): After double bottoming (on Sept 27) at the 100.00 support zone, price moved sharply higher and is now back at previous resistance. THe 50 SMA has catch up with current prices (due to slowing momentum) and there is a rising wedge which I am expecting to break to the downside. My downside targets would be the 103.0x zone (38.2% retracement) then the 102.0x zone (61.8% retracement). A strong break above the 104.3x zone could see prices testing the next resistance zone at 105.5x (127.2% extension)
by orvilleawright
USOIL (4H) trading above $50. Will it hold?USOIL (4H) Oil is trading slightly above $50. Will more buyers step in and push prices higher or is it time for the bulls to take profits? There is significant separation between the current price and the 50 SMA. Are the bulls willing to keep buying at these prices or will they prefer a retracement to the moving average before taking prices higher? "The trend is your friend until it bends" It is always tempting to short prices as it test resistance zones. However if I am a bear, I would prefer to wait for confirmation and have prices holding pullbacks (at last) below the 20 SMA before considering short opportunities.
TVC:USOIL
by orvilleawright
USOIL (Daily) Oil trading into resistance.USOIL (Daily) still in an uptrend starting from the lows created on February 11 2016. Price is however at resistance at $50 as well as the 61.8% retracement of the previous down swing. This zone is also a previous swing high. The last two times the market approached this zone it turned lower. Will the market turn lower again? or will price trades to the top of the bull channel? Will the bulls take profit here? A strong break of this level could indicate a continuation of the upward momentum. However watch out for false breaks. Both bulls and bears should carefully watch the price action and wait for conformation.
TVC:USOIL
by orvilleawright
GBPUSD (4H) price bounces off the 161.8% extensionOn the GBPUSD (4H) chart, price is trading close to the low of the bear channel after bouncing off the 161.8% (at 1.2690x) extension of a prior swing low. Since we are currently trading below the range lows, I would expect this area to act as resistance. The market is over extended and there is significant separation between price and the 50 SMA as well as the 20 SMA. Expect some ratracement back to those moving averages was well as the top of the bear channel.
by orvilleawright
EURUSD (4H) Trade from the edges and avoid the middleThis is such a CHOP. Trade from the edges of the support and resistance zones and avoid the middle. There is resistance above the consolidation zone (1.125xx - 1.128xx). The top (down channel) line will also act as resistance. Support is at the down channel low as well as between (1.112xx - 1.114xx) where the market has bounced several times. However expect these support/resistance zones to be probed and broken as the market is simply chopping sideways with no clear short term direction.
by orvilleawright
1
If I am a bull? If I am a bear?If I am a bull? Price is bouncing off the 1.2 support zone as well as the lows of the bull channel. Look for buying opportunities with targets at 1) previous structure highs 1.127x 2) 127.2% extension at 1.129x. Buy retracements if price trades towards the channel highs. . . If I am a bear? Price seems to be supported at the 1.2 round number which is also previous resistance that turned into support. We are also at the bull channel low. I would wait for a strong break down and a weak retest of this zone before considering short opportunities.
Long
by orvilleawright
If I am a bull? If I am a bear?If I am a bull? Price is bouncing off the 20 SMA. There is however overhead resistance (previous high at $47.72), bull channel high and wedge high to work through. Instead of buying into resistance, wait for a deeper retracement before buying or wait for a strong breakout of resistance with a weak retest before buying. . . If I am a bear? After such a strong move yesterday (based on OPEC announcement to cut oil production) bears should be patient before taking short opportunities. Price is currently at the high of the bull channel and close to the wedge high (4H chart). This however does not means that price will automatically reverse. Strong moves are usually followed by another leg up. Wait for price action to turn bearish at these resistance zones before considering short trades. Look for strong breakdown pullbacks. Target could be the low of the bull channel. There is also resistance at $46 zone.
TVC:USOIL
by orvilleawright
USOIL - IF I AM A BULL? IF I AM A BEAR?IF I AM A BULL: Buy pullbacks as price rotates to the top of the bear channel. Targets are at the top of the bear channel or the 46.20 - 46.50 zone. IF I AM A BEAR: Sell failures at the top of the bear channel. Price is currently at the 61.8% retracement. If price action confirms it as also possible to short at this level with targets at the low of the bear channel. You can also buy a strong break and pullback of the low of the bear channel or the 44.20 level. As always wait for price action to confirm.
TVC:USOIL
by orvilleawright