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Structure-trade

SPX500 (4H) trying to break resistance at 214xSPX500 (4H): Price bounced off support near 2100 and is currently trying to break through the resistance zone at 214x. This resistance is defined by previous support now resistance as well as the 50 SMA. Buyers who entered in the 212x zone could consider taking partial profits. Those looking to buy should wait for a strong break and retest of this resistance zone. This break should bring prices above the 50 SMA. Sellers should wait for bearish price action and note that there is resistance at 2100 zone. My upside targets are 216x (previous highs) then 218x (previous highs). My downside targets are 212x (previous lows) then 2110 (previous low) then 2100 (round number and 127.2% extension)
FX:SPX500
by orvilleawright
SPX500 (Daily) price bounced of support near 2100SPX500 (Daily): Bounced off support in the 2100 zone. This area has acted as resistance for several months before the bulls achieve a clean break. Price has retested this area with the bulls showing their presence. Although the trend is up it should be noted that for the past three months the market has simply chopped sideways. In this situation I would stick to trading from the edges of this consolidation zone. Price is currently trading below the 20 and 50 SMA but until there is a clan break of 2100 I would patiently wait for buying opportunities. Price is also testing the upward trend line.
FX:SPX500Long
by orvilleawright
DXY (4H) trading at lows of spike and channelDXY (4H): Price is trading in a up channel after a sharp upward move. We are currently at the lower trend line of this bull channel. Price is clearly in a up trend. My upside targets are 98.1x (previous high) then 98.5x (upper measure move/previous high). I would not consider shorting until there is a strong breakdown of the up channel that brings price below the 50 SMA. My downside targets are 97.2x (resistance now support) then 96.3x (61.8% retracement, previous SR zone)
TVC:DXY
by orvilleawright
DXY (Daily) price approaching bull channel highDXY (Daily): Since breaking higher on Oct 4 the dollar has been particularly strong. It is trading in a bull channel and approaching the top of that channel. Price has recently broke resistance at 97.57 and is currently using this resistance as support. The next resistance zone is at 98.5x (previous high, 127.2% ext and measured move). Due to the strong up move there is significant separation between current price and the 20/50 SMA.
TVC:DXY
by orvilleawright
USDCAD (Daily) testing 50 SMA, more support at 1.30000USDCAD (Daily): The USDCAD is in a slight uptrend where it is slowly grinding higher. It has tested the 50 SMA leaving a long lower wick. In this type of price action the up moves are not sustained with deep retracements. Major support is at 1.30000. My upside targets are at 1.327x (previous high) and 1.337x (127.2% ext as well as measured move). My initial downside target would be at 1.30000 (round number) and then 1.284x (previous low). Note: BOC overnight rate remains at 0.50% and Crude oil inventories will be out shortly these could affect volatility.
by orvilleawright
GBPUSD (4H) price trading at 50 SMAGBPUSD (4H): Price broke to the upside of the triangle pattern and is currently at the 50 SMA as well as near the previous high created Oct 11. The trend is clearly down and I expect selling of bearish price action at this level as well as the other overhead resistance zones (up to the 61.8% retracement). I would only consider buying (counter trend trade on a shorter timeframe) if I see a very strong break of overhead resistance with the pullback being held above the 50 SMA.
by orvilleawright
GBPUSD (Daily): Should I be buying the GBPUSD?GBPUSD (Daily): After trading in a range for more than 3 months the GBPUSD finally broke sharply to the downside. Price trades through, then pullback from the 1.20000 level as well as the lower range expansion target. Price is currently trading sideways and all the price action is contained within the candle created on Oct 11. Although the downward momentum has slowed there is still significant separation between the current price and the 20/50 SMAs. The GBPUSD is highly bearish (overall USD strength combined with overall GBP weakness). However it should also be noted that if prices retraces into the 50 SMA the profit potential is significant. Note also that the closest structural resistance is at the 1.280x zone.
by orvilleawright
USDJPY (4H): Rising wedge expecting break to the downside.USDJPY (4H): After double bottoming (on Sept 27) at the 100.00 support zone, price moved sharply higher and is now back at previous resistance. THe 50 SMA has catch up with current prices (due to slowing momentum) and there is a rising wedge which I am expecting to break to the downside. My downside targets would be the 103.0x zone (38.2% retracement) then the 102.0x zone (61.8% retracement). A strong break above the 104.3x zone could see prices testing the next resistance zone at 105.5x (127.2% extension)
by orvilleawright
USOIL (4H) trading above $50. Will it hold?USOIL (4H) Oil is trading slightly above $50. Will more buyers step in and push prices higher or is it time for the bulls to take profits? There is significant separation between the current price and the 50 SMA. Are the bulls willing to keep buying at these prices or will they prefer a retracement to the moving average before taking prices higher? "The trend is your friend until it bends" It is always tempting to short prices as it test resistance zones. However if I am a bear, I would prefer to wait for confirmation and have prices holding pullbacks (at last) below the 20 SMA before considering short opportunities.
TVC:USOIL
by orvilleawright
USOIL (Daily) Oil trading into resistance.USOIL (Daily) still in an uptrend starting from the lows created on February 11 2016. Price is however at resistance at $50 as well as the 61.8% retracement of the previous down swing. This zone is also a previous swing high. The last two times the market approached this zone it turned lower. Will the market turn lower again? or will price trades to the top of the bull channel? Will the bulls take profit here? A strong break of this level could indicate a continuation of the upward momentum. However watch out for false breaks. Both bulls and bears should carefully watch the price action and wait for conformation.
TVC:USOIL
by orvilleawright
GBPUSD (4H) price bounces off the 161.8% extensionOn the GBPUSD (4H) chart, price is trading close to the low of the bear channel after bouncing off the 161.8% (at 1.2690x) extension of a prior swing low. Since we are currently trading below the range lows, I would expect this area to act as resistance. The market is over extended and there is significant separation between price and the 50 SMA as well as the 20 SMA. Expect some ratracement back to those moving averages was well as the top of the bear channel.
by orvilleawright
EURUSD (4H) Trade from the edges and avoid the middleThis is such a CHOP. Trade from the edges of the support and resistance zones and avoid the middle. There is resistance above the consolidation zone (1.125xx - 1.128xx). The top (down channel) line will also act as resistance. Support is at the down channel low as well as between (1.112xx - 1.114xx) where the market has bounced several times. However expect these support/resistance zones to be probed and broken as the market is simply chopping sideways with no clear short term direction.
by orvilleawright
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