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EURUSD 27 Feb 2025 W9 - Intraday Analysis - US GDP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 27 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Heavy economic news: US: Durable Goods Orders - GDP - Initial Jobless Claims - Pending Home Sales The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) 🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply) 🔹INT-INT Bullish (Swept ii-High Liq.) 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Is the Bearish INT structure still intact?! This is the 1st scenario of the current 4H Bullish Swing PB. INT Structure still Bearish and we reached the INT Structure Extreme and now failing to break the Weak Swing High (Not confirmed yet, we need at least a Bearish ii-BOS) and LTFs started to show weakness that may support this scenario. 🔹Currently price had swept the Liq. above the Weak ii-High and created a bearish CHoCH. 🔹With that failure to break the Weak High, the low that failed to break the high is now the target. With that low having Liq. below and above the unmitigated 4H Demand, there is a probability that we may mitigate the 4H Demand after taking the Liq. reside above to continue Bullish if and only if price started to show Bullish on LTFs where its going to have Bullish Structures. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Liq. above the unmitigated 4H Demand and maybe after we will have the Bullish continuation from the current move is looking for more Liq. to target the Weak Swing High. 🔹Also, keep in mind that today is having US Volatile new and tomorrow is the most awaited US PCE report where will have high volatility. (It’s always the rule of investors positioning before high volatile reports) 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swept Liq. above Weak Swing High 2️⃣ 🔹With the INT structure turned Bearish yesterday in LDN session, this indicated that there is weakness in the 15m Swing continuation. 🔹Also, with Trump talk yesterday on Tariffs, this didn’t help price to hold Bullish and formed another Bearish iBOS after failing to break the Weak Swing High and just swept the Liq. above and confirmed Bearish INT structure. 🔹With failure to break the Weak Swing High, there is a HP that price will target the Low that failed to break the Swing High. The low that failed to break the high is having Liq. below above the 4H Demand where if price to keep the 15m Swing Bullish, this is the zone where we will see Bullish continuation from. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set to continue Bearish as intraday targeting the Liq. below the lows and mitigating the 4H Demand for maybe a Bullish continuation later after confirmation.
by Amr-Sadek
AU Bullish Play - Multi-Timeframe Precision 4H is running bullish after breaking a major HH. I spotted an IDM, but mitigation to the 4H OB looked like it could take days or even weeks. Instead of waiting, I dropped to the 30M to hunt for bullish continuation. On the 30M, price was still pushing, but I needed refinement. Spotted a major IDM from the 2H, then dropped back to the 30M to locate near-term structure. Instead of a clear OB, order flow stepped in—wicking into refined 15M levels. That was my cue. Dropped to the 5M and waited for a clean CHoCH confirmation. Price followed through strong, locking in my entry. Now the 30M is pushing through, confirming bullish intent. TP is mapped—now it’s just execution and trade management. When you stack timeframes the right way, the market lays out the moves for you. Let’s see how this one plays out. #SMC #Forex #AUDUSD #OrderFlow #MultiTimeframeAnalysis Bless Trading!..
Long
by Juicemannn
EURUSD 25 Feb 2025 W9 -Intraday Analysis- US Consumer ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Today economic news: US : Consumer Confidence The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) 🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply) 🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%) 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With this week open, price continued Bullish as expected and created another ii-BOS after which price started PB for the ii-BOS and reached the recent Demand which we could see the next Bullish move from. 3️⃣ 🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase 2️⃣ 🔹After the 15m Bullish BOS, price initiated the Swing PB Phase. 🔹Price reached the 15m Swing EQ (50%) and turned Bullish after the INT structure changed to Bullish iBOS indicating that the Swing PB maybe over and we are currently starting the Swing Bullish continuation Phase. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish with the 15m / 4H INT & Swing are all Bullish. 🔹Price targets are 15m Weak INT High and ultimately 15m Weak Swing High.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 24-28 Feb 2025 W9 - Weekly Analysis - US GDP / PCE Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 24-28 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment Inflation Data Dominates Hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI/PPI initially fueled inflation fears, but signs of moderation in underlying PPI components raised hopes for softer PCE data next week. Investors see a growing chance of Fed rate cuts in late 2025, limiting USD strength. Tariff Noise vs. Market Calm Trump’s tariff threats (e.g., reciprocal steel/aluminum duties) were largely dismissed as negotiation tactics, easing fears of an immediate trade war. Markets expect delays in implementation, reducing near-term volatility. Geopolitical Progress Supports Risk Sentiment Reports of progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks (e.g., territory swaps) reduced safe-haven demand for the USD, indirectly boosting the Euro. Stabilizing energy prices and supply chains further supported the Eurozone outlook. Central Bank Divergence The Fed remains cautious, emphasizing data dependency, while the ECB signals potential rate cuts later in 2025. Short-term EUR resilience stems from reduced trade-war risks and improving Eurozone economic data. Focus on Upcoming Catalysts This week PCE inflation report (Fed’s preferred gauge) will test disinflation optimism. Weak U.S. retail sales/industrial production amplified concerns about slowing growth, weighing on the USD. Key Takeaways Bullish Drivers: Progress in geopolitical tensions. Softening inflation expectations ahead of PCE data. Tariffs seen as negotiation tools, not immediate threats. Bearish Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. Overall Sentiment:  Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD this week, with upside hinging on sustained risk appetite and confirmation of disinflation trends. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish (Pullback Phase) 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week. 🔹With the previous week solid Bullish close, the Demand did hold and there is a high probability that price could continue Bullish to facilitate the INT structure pullback phase. 🔹If price to continue Bullish, price will be targeting the liquidity above Dec 2024, INT Structure EQ (50%) at 1.06933 to target the Weekly Supply in premium before continuing down to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹Expectations is for price to continue Bullish if it managed to break 1.05333 27 Jan High to facilitate the INT structure pullback. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH. 🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase. 🔹Previous week I mentioned “if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm”. And with that happened I’d shifted to Bullish expectation and there is expectations of a deep pullback within the Daily Bearish INT structure. 🔹The expected targets for the current bullish move is 1st to sweep the liquidity above the equal highs (17 Dec & 27 Jan) 2nd Break of the Strong INT High to facilitate the Daily Bearish Swing pullback and the Weekly Bearish INT pullback. 🔹Currently Supply is failing and Demand is holding confirms the short-term Bullish scenario and setting my expectations for continuing Bullish. Price had pulled back to the recent Daily Demand and continued Bullish. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) 🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply) 🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%) 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹As expected yesterday, price managed to continue Bullish after reaching the INT-INT structure EQ (50%) in a solid impulsive move aligns with the Swing continuation move. 3️⃣ 🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 21 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday Analysis - EU & US PMI Day!This is my Intraday analysis on FX:EURUSD EURUSD for 21 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment It's PMI Day today: EU: Flash Manufacturing PMI - Flash Services PMI US: Flash Manufacturing PMI - Flash Services PMI The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) 🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply) 🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%) 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹As expected yesterday, price managed to continue Bullish after reaching the INT-INT structure EQ (50%) in a solid impulsive move aligns with the Swing continuation move. 3️⃣ 🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase 2️⃣ 🔹The 15m Bullish Swing pullback phase is still intact with continues Bearish INT structures. 🔹Price had reached Swing extreme demand in Swing Discount. 🔹With the recent Bearish iBOS, price had formed Liq. above the 15m Demand which was sept with the break of the Weak INT Low, mitigating the 15m Demand and forming a Bullish CHoCH to initiate the Bearish INT Structure Pullback. 🔹With the Bullish iBOS yesterday, we confirmed that the Swing Pullback phase may have ended and we are in a new Bullish continuation phase. 3️⃣ 🔹With the recent iBOS, price is currently in Pullback Phase to HP POIs to then continue Bullish. 🔹As yesterday expectation of continuing Bullish, still on the expectations of price continuing Bullish targeting the 15m Weak Swing High / 4H Weak Swing High.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 18 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday - EU ZEW /US ManufacturingThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 18 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Some light economic news today along with the US Markets are back after long weekend. EUR : ZEW Economic Sentiment US : Empire State Manufacturing Index The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis. Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Currently price is targeting the Liq. (Bearish CHoCK) above the recent demand which could provide Bullish continuation. 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹Bullish Swing structure continuing bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase. 🔹After the recent Swing BOS, we expect a pullback which is confirmed with the 15m Bearish iBOS today. 🔹With the Bearish iBOS we confirm the 15m pullback phase to Swing EQ (50%)/ Discount. 3️⃣ 🔹As price on the 4H is currently targeting the Liq. (Bearish CHoCH), expectations today is to continue Bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback to Swing Discount and mitigate the 4H/15m Demand before continuing Bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
EUR/USD - Bullish Setup Building UpPatiently tracking the move — timing is everything. 4H: Bullish structure locked in, but no liquidity sweep or order block mitigation yet. Waiting for price to make its move. 30M: Bullish structure still intact, pushing toward liquidity and lining up for that order block mitigation. Clear direction, just needs that final touch. 5M: Once price hits that OB, I’ll refine my entry with a CHoCH flip and liquidity grab. Staying sharp for the perfect execution. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EURUSD 14 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - EU GDP - US Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment 1. Impact of CPI and PPI on Inflation Expectations CPI Outcome: The headline CPI rose to 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), while core CPI increased to 3.3% YoY, signaling persistent inflationary pressures 10. However, the market reaction was muted due to mixed signals. PPI Analysis: The headline PPI exceeded forecasts (3.5% YoY), but key components linked to core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred metric) suggested a potential moderation. Analysts noted that softer PCE data next week could ease Fed tightening fears, supporting risk assets like the Euro. Investor Positioning: Futures traders now price in 33 basis points of Fed cuts in 2025, up from 29 basis points pre-PPI, indicating growing optimism about disinflation. 2. Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: Negotiation vs. Trade War Tariff Announcement: Trump’s directive to formulate reciprocal tariffs (e.g., 25% on steel/aluminum) was not immediately implemented, with a delayed enforcement timeline (potentially April). Markets interpreted this as a negotiation tactic rather than an escalation into a trade war. Market Reaction: The USD weakened (DXY fell to 107.25) as investors focused on the negotiation window and avoided panic-driven safe-haven flows. The Euro benefited from reduced trade-war fears, rising to $1.0469 in early Asian trade. 3. Geopolitical Optimism and Risk Sentiment Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks: Reports of potential territory swaps and Trump’s mediation efforts bolstered risk appetite. A resolution could alleviate Eurozone energy and supply-chain pressures, supporting EUR/USD. Equity Market Stability: European stocks (e.g., Euro STOXX 50) pared losses, with sectors like utilities and healthcare outperforming. This resilience reduced demand for the USD as a safe haven. 4. Central Bank Dynamics The ECB is expected to cut rates further (market pricing in 3 cuts in 2025), while the Fed maintains a cautious "higher-for-longer" stance. However, softer PCE expectations may narrow this divergence, favoring EUR/USD. 5. Key Risks and Catalysts Today U.S. Retail Sales & Industrial Production: Forecasts suggest a 0.2% MoM decline in retail sales (first drop in 5 months) and slower industrial production growth. Weak data could amplify USD selling. Tariff Negotiation Updates: Any hints of tariff implementation timelines or retaliatory measures from the EU/China may reignite volatility. Final Sentiment Summary Short-Term Bias:  Cautiously Bullish for EUR/USD. Support Factors: Soft PCE expectations, delayed tariffs, and geopolitical optimism. Investors will monitor retail sales data and tariff rhetoric for intraday momentum shifts. A softer PCE print next week could solidify bullish sentiment, while tariff escalation remains the primary risks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Currently price is sweeping Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High. A decent pullback is also expected if the Liq. is enough and market sentiment is aligning with the pullback (Requires market Fear/ Risk-Off). 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structures continued Bullish with 2 Bullish BOS yesterday (High Volatility). 🔹The current 15m Bullish structures confirms for me the 4H Bullish Swing continuation and we are targeting high. 🔹After the recent 15m Swing BOS, we expect a pullback. Current structure doesn’t have much clear demand zone (the 70% of the structure is a 4H Demand zone). 🔹Price expected to have a pullback to the recent demand identified (Not well positioned as it’s in premium) or to structure EQ (50%)/Discount to continue Bullish and target the Weak Swing High. 🔹I want to note that the 4H had swept Liq. above 30 Jan High which could initiate a decent pullback on price after that aggressive move up. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation of price to continue Bullish as long the Swing Low hold and pullbacks are contained within the structure.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 13 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - US PPI, Tariffs & Peace TalksThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment The EUR/USD’s rise yesterday, despite hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data, reflects a complex interplay of technical, geopolitical, and market sentiment factors. Initial CPI Shock and Subsequent Rebound The U.S. CPI rose 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), with core CPI hitting 0.3% MoM, triggering an immediate USD rally and EUR/USD dips. Fed Policy Expectations vs. Market Positioning Despite the CPI spike, Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed urgency for rate hikes, stating the Fed is “close but not there yet” on inflation. This tempered fears of aggressive tightening and limited USD upside. Geopolitical De-escalation and Risk Sentiment Reports of a potential territory swap deal reduced geopolitical risk aversion, weakening the USD’s safe-haven appeal and supporting the Euro. Diverging Central Bank Policies While the Fed’s cautious stance limited USD gains, the ECB’s restrictive policy (rates at 2.75% vs. Fed’s 4.5%) and improving Eurozone PMI data (manufacturing: 46.6; services: 51.3) supported EUR strength. The EUR/USD rally was a corrective rebound driven by: Technical triggers after oversold conditions. Powell’s refusal to escalate hawkish rhetoric. Geopolitical optimism overshadowing inflation risks. Relative Eurozone resilience amid global trade uncertainties. While CPI data initially favored the USD, the market’s focus shifted to policy stability and risk sentiment, allowing the Euro to recover. However, sustained EUR strength hinges on ECB rate cuts and tariff developments. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bullish targeting the Liquidity above the Feb 5 and then Jan 30 before any considerable pullback to then continue to target the Weak 4H Swing High. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Sweeping Swing High 2️⃣ 🔹With yesterday economic and geopolitics news, we had a mixed moves based on investors sentiment and their appetite to risk. 🔹INT structure continuing Bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase. 🔹Currently price in the process of creating a 15m Bullish Swing (BOS). 3️⃣ 🔹With current Bullish INT Structure and the expected Bullish BOS on 15m and it’s alignment with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase, expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Bullish move. 🔹Having in mind that after the 15m Bullish BOS we will have a pullback which will provide opportunities to Long as Shorts currently are not viable for me.
by Amr-Sadek
XAU/USD: Riding the Momentum 4H is doing exactly what it should—straight bullish, no hesitation. Momentum is clear, and I’m not here to fight it. Dropped to the 30M to catch the continuation. IDM has already been taken out, so now it’s a waiting game. Just need price to dip into the 30M order block for that clean mitigation before I step in. Nothing forced, just precision. Most traders chase gold. I position myself before the move. Let’s see if price respects the blueprint. #XAUUSD #Gold #SMC #SmartMoney #OrderBlocks #Liquidity #PriceAction Bless Trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Juicemannn
EUR/GBP: The Setup is Unfolding 30M already did its job—mitigated the order block just like I expected. Now? It’s all about catching the continuation move. I’m locked in on the 5M, waiting for a CHoCH to confirm bullish structure. But that’s not enough—I need liquidity to build up, get swept, and give me that clean mitigation before I step in. Precision over impulse. Most traders force trades. I let the market show its hand first. Let’s see if price wants to run these highs next. #EURGBP #SMC #SmartMoney #OrderBlocks #LiquiditySweep #PriceAction Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn